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Adrianza #50 prospect? How? And Crawford #4?


There was a recent FanPost discussing one fan's (and paid commentator) Top 50 ranking, and I didn't see it until now:  http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2010/3/2/1333860/one-more-prospect-list-sfdugout

I don't see how Ehire Adrianza can be placed 50th, behind so many other suspects.  Likewise, how is Brandon Crawford then 4th? Since that post is old, I put this here as I want to see how others feel about this, is this a big issue, small, meh?  

To me, making Adrianza 50th makes the methodology of this ranking seem very questionable.  Then making Crawford 4th in the list, is even more mind bending.  

Star-divide

 

I'll repeat what I wrote previously regarding my adopted son:  People forget that he was only 19 last year in a league where the average pitcher’s age is 21.6 YO, meaning most have 2-3 more years of experience and development on him. And he still had an above average OBP of .333 (league average of .324) with 83% contact rate (or 17% strikeout rate) and a nice 0.64 BB/K ratio. Plus that’s a pitcher’s park in a pitcher’s league (if I remember that right, dang BP took out their park factors in their 2010 book).

When Schoop made Augusta, not only was he a year older than Adrianza, he hit so poorly there that he was shoved back to Salem-Keizer.  Adrianza already knows how to handle the bat, he just needs to build up the muscle to hit for more power and get his SLG up so that his OPS is OK, which in the NL is .720's roughly.  

To recap, he has the glove already, he can get on base better than guys 2-3 years older than he is and against pitchers 2-3 years older and more experienced, in any case, no matter what age, he handles the bat well, both in terms of taking walks and avoiding strikeouts, so his main thing is that he needs to develop some power to make his OPS good enough for the majors.  That's why publications like Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus think so much of him that he is in their Top 10 Giants prospects (Top 5 for BP).   And the other two major lists that I follow  - John Sickels and Minor League Baseball Analysts - both at least have him in their Top 20.   50th?

Meanwhile Crawford is 4th?  He struck out like crazy last season, even when he hit like crazy in San Jose.  And the odd thing was that he was even worse on the road, even though Municipal Stadium is one of the worse parks in the minors in terms of strikeouts, due to a bad background that has been affecting hitters.  That is why the park is such an extreme pitcher's park in a hitter's league.  Yet he did worse on the road.

And how was Crawford rushed?  He was 22 YO last season.  Here are some of the leaders in OPS in the Eastern League in 2009:

Brandon Snyder (22 YO) - 1st
Pedro Alvarez (22 YO) - 2nd (was drafted in the same draft as Crawford)
Ike Davis (22 YO) - 5th (was drafted in the same draft as Crawford)
Jesus Montrero (19 YO) - 11th
Josh Reddick (22 YO) - 13th

They didn't seem particularly bothered by being rushed to AA.  The best prospects in AA are those who are younger and yet can still produce enough to rank in the top hitters list.  To be #4 on the Giants list would suggest that he did well in AA while younger (he was 22 and average age was 24), but he didn't, he did horribly, suggesting that he is further out than thought in making the majors.

Plus, Crawford was hitting .365/.441/.587/1.028 with 6 HR in 104 AB.  Where in those numbers say that Crawford should be held back in San Jose in order to not rush him?  I think most people would think that Crawford was due the promotion.  I know I would have.

Meanwhile, he was horrible in AA.  And it did not get much better on the road either.  Both were horrible.  His MLE was .218/.246/.302/.548 in AA.  I don't see much chance of making the majors with numbers like that, barring a Bocock-type situation, let alone lasting 5 years there.  

Adrianza, at minimum, looks more likely to do that because 1) his defense reportedly is good enough for the majors already, 2) he can get on base OK, 3) he controls the bat well, keeping this strikeouts much lower than Crawford, much lower than most hitters, 4) he is disciplined enough to draw a large percentage of walks relative to his strikeouts, and 5) he has enough speed to steal as many bases as Crawford (which was underutilized last season, but he stole a lot the season before).

Crawford, except for his San Jose stint (which was marked by huge outliers in BABIP), has been a non-performer for the past two seasons, a disappointment in his last season in college, a disappointment in AA.

And I like Crawford as a prospect too, I think he will eventually figure out his problems enough to make the team as the starting SS and hold the fort until Adrianza comes along and pushes him out eventually.  I just don't think he's #4 material nor do I see him so far ahead of Adrianza on the prospect ranking scale.  

How is Adrianza 50th while Crawford is 4th?  Am I crazy for thinking this?  On what valid ranking scale and methodology would place Crawford 4th and Adrianza 50th?  I just don't see it.

Poll
Was Brandon Crawford rushed to AA?
Yes
40 votes
No
75 votes

115 votes | Poll has closed

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

Comment 61 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Yeah, this.

Bochy: What’s this fancy stat here?
IT Guy: That’s how often they get on base. I do not know why you keep asking me, I am here to fix your server.

#2 in Fanshots

by scout6 on Mar 18, 2010 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

But it isn’t as long as I thought it would be.

The Giants offseason moves - "meh"
Proud father of 2-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, who could do whatever he wants to do.

by SFGuy on Mar 18, 2010 5:40 PM PDT up reply actions  

TWSS

"I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."- Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti

"What do I want you to do? What are you doing in the National League?"- John McGraw

"117 elements, and still no Stanfurdium"- carp (paraphrased)

by natteringnabob on Mar 18, 2010 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

nicely done.

"And we plead and we pray for a glimmer of day,
As the night folds its wings and descends, exposing the loose ends."

Proud adoptive parent of Sergio Romo. Looking forward to adopting Justin Smoak.

by Lyle on Mar 19, 2010 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ehire Adrianza is my choice for future SF Giants shortstop with a couple of caveats. First is allowing Gerald Posey to attempt to play shortstop. If Rich Aurilia, Edgar Renteria, Kevin Frandsen and Juan Uribe have been given an opportunity why not Gerald?

The second caveat would be the drafting of CSF shortstop Christian Colon. Colon has begun his junior season very poorly. There is now the possibility of Colon falling to the Giants.

by wilriv21 on Mar 17, 2010 5:12 PM PDT reply actions  

Speaking of CSF, I am sure you are dreaming of a PillapaloozaX2 after the 2011 draft.

Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's

by Giant among Angels on Mar 17, 2010 6:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nah

still thinking 2010 with Colon and Gary Brown

by wilriv21 on Mar 17, 2010 6:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

If Rich Aurilia, Edgar Renteria, Kevin Frandsen and Juan Uribe have been given an opportunity why not Gerald?

Because C > SS.

by Missing Barry on Mar 18, 2010 7:07 AM PDT up reply actions  

/sarchasm

Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!

by say hey nation on Mar 18, 2010 7:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

??

Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!

by say hey nation on Mar 18, 2010 7:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

He’s saying that positionally, the group of players that can play C is much smaller than the group of players that can play SS — making a individual that can play catcher more valuable.

#1 FanShot Champion

by xanthan on Mar 18, 2010 7:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yes I know that. I was saying that wilriv was being sarcastic. I think…or hope.

Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!

by say hey nation on Mar 18, 2010 7:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

Hey, I have a question, why does the “by” in the “by say hey nation” of your username link to Urban’s twitter? I’m confused!

#1 FanShot Champion

by xanthan on Mar 18, 2010 7:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

??

Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!

by say hey nation on Mar 18, 2010 7:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

#1 FanShot Champion

by xanthan on Mar 18, 2010 7:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

/shopped

Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!

by say hey nation on Mar 18, 2010 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

Clearly you are Mychael Urban.

#1 FanShot Champion

by xanthan on Mar 18, 2010 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

Let me tell you about myself.

-I have be diagnosed with asperger’s

-I pitched in NCAA

-I am the tallest LHP in DI history NOT to be drafted!

Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!

by say hey nation on Mar 18, 2010 7:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

Wait how did it all of a sudden go away? I’m so confused. Also, are those real facts or am I just not picking up on some joke? Also, I don’t know if Wilriv was being sarcastic or not, but we both know there are Giants fans out there who have that idea in their head!

by Missing Barry on Mar 18, 2010 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

Also, I’m confused if this whole dialogue between you and Xanthan is a joke, I’ve seen that asked of you a bunch of times.

by Missing Barry on Mar 18, 2010 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

I have the same question.

Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.

by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 18, 2010 9:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don’t even know how it’s possible to have a link next to your username, and I run the damn place.

by Grant Brisbee on Mar 18, 2010 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe…you only think you run the place but Say Hey Nation actually runs it!!!

/freaky wide eyed stare

Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.

by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 18, 2010 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

Howie exposed it as an easter egg the other day, using a phantom “h-ref” thingy. The confusing part is if say hey nation is doing it by accident.

Jonathan Sanchez: Often maddening to watch, but capable of perfection on a moment's notice---just like his adoptive father.

by rotorueter on Mar 18, 2010 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

It’s less confusing if you assume that he’s Mychael Urban. Let me use my Glenn Beck crazy blackboard to show the connection between them.

#1 FanShot Champion

by xanthan on Mar 18, 2010 11:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

Will you cry and sweat a lot?

Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.

by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 18, 2010 11:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

I’ve never seen a comment’s “by” as a link.

by chilibean_3 on Mar 18, 2010 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

If by
I run the damn place.

you mean “puppet regime”, then I concur

Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!

by Goofus on Mar 18, 2010 1:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

It’s not a joke, I just noticed it the other day.

/conspiracy theories

#1 FanShot Champion

by xanthan on Mar 18, 2010 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

Does it involve the Catholic Church? I feel like the best conspiracy theories always do.

Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.

by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 18, 2010 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

This is really freaking me out. Why hasn’t he responded? Show yourself!

Wayne Rooney, 1/27/09: Cometh The Hour, Cometh The Man

by Useful_Idiot on Mar 19, 2010 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

Whoa. What is going on here?!

Jonathan Sanchez: Often maddening to watch, but capable of perfection on a moment's notice---just like his adoptive father.

by rotorueter on Mar 18, 2010 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

You have no idea how many times I tried to hit z to un-hilight that stupid comment, before I realized what was going on.

I has a sad.

Bochy: What’s this fancy stat here?
IT Guy: That’s how often they get on base. I do not know why you keep asking me, I am here to fix your server.

#2 in Fanshots

by scout6 on Mar 18, 2010 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/2010/3/10/1366703/the-personal-side-of-baseball#32340016

I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory

by Natto on Mar 18, 2010 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

wilriv doesn’t do sarcasm.

I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory

by Natto on Mar 18, 2010 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

Correction

wilriv doesn’t do sarcasm well

I do wish the Giants would give Poser the opportunity to play SS. If that does not go well he can then move to either his left or his right.

by wilriv21 on Mar 18, 2010 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

You know I was thinking of you during one of the Giants broadcasts, Wil. Dave B. Fleming was talking about Posey and he said something to the effect of: “for the people who are talking about trying Posey at other positions, I don’t think they’ve seen him this spring. He’s put on a solid 20 lbs. and he really looks like a catcher now. He’s not going to be playing 2B with that build.”

And I thought, I wonder if Wilriv heard that — muscle-y Gerald is muscle-y.

My Bucardo is better than yours.

A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

by Roger on Mar 18, 2010 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions  

Let's Revisit in August

Great work ethic by Poser gets him musclely over the winter. Is this sustainable weight or is it the kind of weight/muscle that will trim down over the summer? Hope for the former.

Benito Santiago had a thin frame. He was wiry strong and effective.

by wilriv21 on Mar 18, 2010 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions  

Well, except the point of Fleming’s comment wasn’t that the added weight made him fit to be catcher; it was that the added weight made him unfit to be a MI. That his bulk up would most certainly cost him the requisite lateral quickness or flexibility to play SS, if indeed he had it to begin with (of which I’m pretty skeptical).

My Bucardo is better than yours.

A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

by Roger on Mar 18, 2010 1:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

C'mon

Gerald bulked up to the massive 205lbs!!!! He would be the initial middle infielder EVAH to top the 200lbs threshold. My bad.

by wilriv21 on Mar 18, 2010 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think he bulked up FROM 205 lbs, actually. He’s apparently in the 230 range. And he’s not stretching that over a particularly long frame either (a la Cal Ripken).

Regardless, the notion that he could play an acceptable major league SS has always struck me as pretty far-fetched and based on little to nothing. I mean I played SS in high school for awhile too.

My Bucardo is better than yours.

A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.

by Roger on Mar 18, 2010 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Simple Math

The way I read it was that the Gerald Posey tipped the scales at 185 prebulk- hence the lack musculature and stamina comments from the brass.

How much does Uribe weigh? Pablito?

If Poser cannot handle SS – no problem. Heck there are internal questions if he can handle everyday catching. Fortunately San Francisco summers are colder than LA winters. That should save him from further wilt.

by wilriv21 on Mar 18, 2010 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

Didn't Kent play 2B

at about 6’ 200lbs?

Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!

by Goofus on Mar 18, 2010 8:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Benito Santiago had a thin frame. He was wiry strong and effective.

and ’roided up down in out

Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!

by Goofus on Mar 18, 2010 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

Why do you want Posey to play SS? He’s never been projected to be a SS defensively, it seems unlikely he’d be able to do it at a MLB level for quite a while even if he did have the necessary athleticism/skills for it, AND SS is a less valuable position than C.

by Missing Barry on Mar 18, 2010 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

He played SS once. Therefore, he can do it at the major league level.

SCIENCE!!!!!!

#1 FanShot Champion

by xanthan on Mar 18, 2010 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

nice employment

of basic statistics

"I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."- Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti

"What do I want you to do? What are you doing in the National League?"- John McGraw

"117 elements, and still no Stanfurdium"- carp (paraphrased)

by natteringnabob on Mar 18, 2010 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Adrianza at #50 is a joke

To me, putting him that far down, when every other publication, blog, or list that I’ve ever seen has him in the top twenty is a clear case of being biased against this particular prospect and seriously makes me question the credibility of those responsible for that site. Though they made some good points about his shortcomings, in no way were they enough to warrant a ranking below some of the other non-entities above him on their list.

by crazedcrustacean on Mar 17, 2010 5:22 PM PDT reply actions  

Our rankings are oriented on likelihood to be a major leaguer, rather than simply looking at ceiling

Not sure that completely explains it, but it does help.

Thing A

by sam23 on Mar 17, 2010 5:31 PM PDT reply actions  

That was my initial reaction

Minus the passion.

Even factoring in levels, and whatever scouting things I don’t know about, I have a hard time believing those two are that far apart.

by DesertFox on Mar 17, 2010 5:51 PM PDT reply actions  

We all have our own way of valuing prospects and their potential, and just because somebody separates 2 players you see as similar does not mean that they are stupid or in consistent. You need to CALM DOWN because, after all, these are only prospects and are the rankings of them are very inconsequential in your own life.

Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!

by say hey nation on Mar 18, 2010 6:09 AM PDT reply actions  

Also, we already had this thread.

by Evan on Mar 18, 2010 7:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

ogc

bringing you the best in McC deja vu

"I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."- Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti

"What do I want you to do? What are you doing in the National League?"- John McGraw

"117 elements, and still no Stanfurdium"- carp (paraphrased)

by natteringnabob on Mar 18, 2010 7:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

You did it again! Urban!

Jonathan Sanchez: Often maddening to watch, but capable of perfection on a moment's notice---just like his adoptive father.

by rotorueter on Mar 18, 2010 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

It’s Myckle Urban!!

Wayne Rooney, 1/27/09: Cometh The Hour, Cometh The Man

by Useful_Idiot on Mar 19, 2010 12:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Nobody really agreed with the EA ranking, but I think Brute certainly explained it pretty well.

Mark DeRosa knows that it's hard to sound intelligent with a Jersey accent.

by oldjacket on Mar 18, 2010 7:34 AM PDT reply actions  

Crawford

Crawford has much more overall upside in terms of being an overall ball player but yes I disagree with how far back Adrianza is ranked based on how highly ranked his defensive skills are at ss. i dont think you should be so down in crawford though in his first professional season. his strikeout rate should decrease and his walk rate should increase the more he gets accustomed to playing in the upper levels. however, given that, this year and the next are very important years for crawford to establish himself as a threat at the plate. his glove is already solid.

by Pandaplaya88 on Mar 18, 2010 9:42 PM PDT reply actions  

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