Halfway point (ish) quick ST hitting analysis
by fantastical on Mar 14, 2010 7:26 PM PDT
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PrintIt's hard to do anything with spring training stats, but here's an attempt to gauge who's looking good this spring and who isn't. It'll be interesting to see how these observations pan out into the next two weeks.
Interesting things to note so far:
Fred Lewis has touched as many bags as Uribe and Renteria combined, one is expected to be DFA'd, the other two are expected to start.
DeRosa, in a third of the ABs, has matched Renteria for hits, and has more than Uribe.
Fred Lewis, with Aubrey Huff, also leads the team in jacks. Is he finding his powerstroke or something? Huff's been hitting, but good lord is he scary with a glove.
Buster, Panda, and Bowker are leading the team in RBIs. One of them is expected to make the team. I'd be interested to see the numbers for 2-out rbis, but my connection is slow and I'm not going to look through every box score.
Molina has walked as much or more than everyone but Bowker, and he has struck out once. What the fuck. He got off to a good start, but it remains to be seen how well he sustains it. He didn't exactly do well today. As hot as Molina is/was, his minor league not-ready-yet competition has paced him perfectly, outhitting him and driving in more runs. Buster's also thrown out more runners. But that's news to no one, probably.
Who has the most extra base hits this spring? Another non-starter: Andres Torres.
Who has the most Total bases+walks? Aaron Rowand with 20.
A quick hot or not (MLB and AAA guys):
Hot:
Rowand, Buster, Bowker, Torres, F. Sanchez (grounders baby)
Not:
Uribe and Renteria.
I'm sure this means nothing to a lot of people, but I think some of it is interesting to at least take note of. Based off these first 13 games I hope the organization is giving some new thought to the projected lineup for opening day, but there's about three weeks left to see how things pan out.
Feel free to celebrate, gripe, qualify, append, or vomit.
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Reserve Outfielders
Should be Lewis and Torres.
Bowker should be sent down, only because he’s the one who still has an option. Velez should be sent down as well, and who cares if we lose him (I don’t know his option situation).
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
My Son was the third most valuable Giant position player by WAR in 2009. A little sad, a little happy.
Lewis, Eww
If Bowker gets demoted and Lewis takes a roster spot I’ll be pissed. Bowker actually has some sort of upside, provides some flexibility (1b) and has something that Leiws doesn’t, power and significant power. I don’t think it can be understated that Huff taking 1b away from Ishikawa isn’t a step forward, at best a lateral move and even maybe a step back. Though Huff may drive in more runs than Ishikawa he gives all those runs back with his glove. If anything the smartest thing to do would have Bowker pick up at bats as a reserve of (and start if he rakes) while spelling Huff at first base especially until Ishikawa is back. I agree with Torres our best defensive of on a team that very well could be defensively challenged
http://caincecum.blogspot.com/
The thing is if neither of them are starting, we can hold on to both by optioning Bowker down. Lewis may not have upside, but he also has a considerably higher chance of giving you average starter production – something he’s shown in the past. He also does have some power, not a ton, but some. If you check out his 2008 HR spraychart, you can see the ones he hit were bombs, which means he has the power even if he doesn’t square that many up. He also has decent gap power. Overall, Lewis is probably the third best OF on the team right now. I see no reason to dump him at the moment. It also doesn’t hurt to see if Bowker can sustain his “improved” approach for a whole season down in AAA.
by Missing Barry on Mar 14, 2010 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Why can’t we keep all three? With Sanchez on the DL and DeRosa able to play the infield, it makes sense that we should be able to carry three outfielders.
Possible uses for your Steven Johnson: 5th starter, long reliever, batboy, go-fer, food taster. Just keep him on the roster!
I have no idea
Sorry, I’m not really all that familiar with the intricacies. Anyone more informed want to take a crack at this? Obvi I’d like to carry the three of them.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
My Son was the third most valuable Giant position player by WAR in 2009. A little sad, a little happy.
Remember last year when Travis Ishikawa hit a bunch of home runs in spring training?
…yeah.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
BRIAN BOCOCK
Mr. February, or Mr. March?
"I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."- Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti
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by natteringnabob on Mar 14, 2010 7:56 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m pretty sure that didn’t happen.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 15, 2010 8:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Well to be fair, I didn’t give any actual indication that I was being sarcastic.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 15, 2010 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I’m pretty sure your face is stupid!
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
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But that's the thing. I didn't even post a picture of me this time. I'll have to be more careful in the future.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 15, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
That picture of me makes me LOL.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 15, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
Me too, but probably for different reasons.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
Is it the Nuns Having Fun calendar in the background?
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 15, 2010 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
If you listened to Mercyful Fate you would know that nuns have no fun. They are on that ride as a test of their faith.
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Mar 15, 2010 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Probably. I was pretty drunk at the time.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 15, 2010 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
That shirt looks like something Brian Wilson would wear.
Adoptive parent of Kevin "The Stopgap" Frandsen.
by EliminateMe on Mar 15, 2010 12:24 PM PDT up reply actions
That’s just mean.
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Mar 15, 2010 2:00 PM PDT up reply actions
And your haircut is dumb
If God had intended us not to rosterbate, he would've made our arms shorter.
Was dumb. If that picture was recent, I’d be a lot fatter.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 16, 2010 8:21 AM PDT up reply actions
LOLOL SSS
I only have a signature because I recognize everyone else by their sigs, not their usernames..
LOL STATS AGAINST PLAYERS TRYING TO PERFECT STUFF AND NOT BE THEERE BEST
Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!
by say hey nation on Mar 14, 2010 8:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, fantastical isn’t exactly pretending that they mean a lot.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 15, 2010 8:21 AM PDT up reply actions
The stats from these games are beyond irrelevant. Aaron Rowand is hitting about .500, do you believe that or his crappy career numbers?
Dumped Edgar Renteria and adopted Buster Posey. Biggest upgrade since George Jefferson moved up to a deluxe apartment on the east side!
by rxmeister on Mar 14, 2010 8:32 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
Actually Scott always starts off real nice each of the past 2 years only to trail off in the 2nd half. Zito is pretty bad the first half but very CY-like in 2nd halves. Combined they will make $30 million next season; paraphasing Evan Longoria – that’s a whooole lotta cheese.
Win the inning.
by Scooter Ellis on Mar 14, 2010 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Counter-point
I don’t think they’re “beyond irrelevent”.
For example, the fact that Derosa is swinging the bat well after coming off wrist surgery is comforting.
As for Rowand, he and Bam Bam worked on Rowand’s stance in the off-season in an effort to shorten his swing and keep his head still. The fact that he’s hitting well is a very good sign. Do I think he’ll keep up the gawdy numbers throughout the season? Nope. But we do know from history that Rowand has the ability to contribute more than he has as a Giant, so his improvment this Spring might portend good things to come.
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
Counter-counter-point
On the other hand, DeRosa and Rowand could be swinging the bat well and have miserable stats. The sample sizes are so small that one frozen rope hit right at the shortstop instead of over second base makes a big difference. I still think scouting reports are more useful than stats in spring training.
In the end, America will be remembered for three things: the Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
Completely fair point
But I think the numbers, along with scouting, provide a glimpse of what’s going on.
I haven’t seen a single ST game, but from the numbers and accounts I’ve followed, it sounds as though Rowand is doing making good contact and appears to be more patient at the plate. Moving to the leadoff spot before the season begins, as opposed to last year’s mid-season stretch, might be a really good thing for him. If he changes his approach and places a higher priority on getting on base, it might make him less aggressive chasing pitches out of the zone.
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
I agree. Rowand leading off is nobody’s idea of an ideal situation, but if he looks comfortable there then it may work out better than we think.
by fantastical on Mar 15, 2010 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Oddly enough
When he takes a dump, he does it with an open stance with no squatting.
Win the inning.
by Scooter Ellis on Mar 15, 2010 1:35 PM PDT up reply actions
And he doesn't do it exclusively from the right side
That’s right, he’s a
.
.
.wait for it
.
.
Switch-shitter!
/rimshot
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
A rare swear from the Goodmeister.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 16, 2010 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions
Ahem… Goofmeister… although the other one does kind of have a ring to it.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 16, 2010 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions
I’m mister Goodmeister, I’m mister fun.
Utter frustration and futility.
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Mar 16, 2010 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah
I don’t curse much hear, but that play on words was too much to pass up
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
I here that!
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
HEER HEER!
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 16, 2010 12:02 PM PDT up reply actions
I was hoping some prospect would break out and hit his way onto the team. has not happened yet.
If the team wants a full time reserve infielder to take Uribe’s role while Uribe is starting and Burriss is hurt—Downs is the only one hitting. 353 / 421 / 529, mostly against minor league pitching. small sample, but way ahead of Frandsen’s 565 OPS and Rohlinger 451 OPS.
cheering for Adam Witter, who will hit bigleague dingers some day.
Still yelling "Go, Antoan"
And Bowker's playing well
even though he’s not a “prospect”
Adopted Giant: Mike Krukow.
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010
I’d say both Bowker and Buster are hitting as well as anyone else, so to demote them to AAA seems silly.
by fantastical on Mar 15, 2010 12:57 PM PDT up reply actions
It's OK though because the Giants are loaded offensively
It’s not like those 2 guys would be the 2nd and 3rd best hitters on a team that desperately needs offensive help
…wait
Adopted Giant: Mike Krukow.
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010
Eh, being able to beat up on pitchers who are more concerned with building up their stamina and finding their command/control than preventing runs doesn’t give us a whole lot of info to make a decision on one way or another.
by Missing Barry on Mar 15, 2010 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Downs is the only one hitting. 353 / 421 / 529,
Free Matt Downs !!
Matt Downs MLB , Now with More STATZ goodness !Matt Downs Fangraphs The Juan Uribe of 2011 !
Bowker needs to learn in the majors now he has nothing left to prove in triple A.
He needs to adapt to the speed of the majors. The sooner the better.
he has nothing left to prove in triple A.
You know he had 151 PA’s in AAA, right? His MLE over that time was .274/.331/.415. We wouldn’t say an MLB player has nothing left to learn or prove after a month and a half of fairly average production, so why would we all of a sudden say that for a AAA guy after a month and a half of fairly average production?
by Missing Barry on Mar 15, 2010 6:55 AM PDT up reply actions
366....
He had 366 at bats in AAA last season, and 450 plate appearences he also had a 1.047 obp on way to winning the Pacific Coast league MVP. So yeah, I think bradleybear is right when he says Bowker has nothing left to prove in AAA. If your looking for players that should “prove” something in AAA send Lewis, not Bowker. I’ll gladly take the chance of losing Lewis in order to have Bowker up. CHONE projects Bowker to be a 2 war player, http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8276&position=1B/OF
while they project Lewis, http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4693&position=OF
to be a 1.4 war player. No, I’m not saying trust projections and as a result we should be playing Bowker. I’m saying Bowker has a signifcantly higher upside, and is also an unkown commodity as far as we know compared to Lewis who as a known commodity has proven highly undesirable to 29 other teams.
http://caincecum.blogspot.com/
Your point about Lewis aside, understanding that MB was referring to Posey, and knowing that I’d love to have Bowker starting on the Major League roster, I see three reasons Bowker should hang out in AAA.
First, considering that his 2000 odd previous minor league plate appearances were underwhelming, desire to see if Bowker’s AAA approach from last year sticks. I think most people on here would be happy to see Bowker start at the major league level this year, but this is valid.
Second, if Bowker makes the big league team, he likely will not get regular at bats. Considering the offseason acquisitions, it’s just not likely to happen. And irregular at bats will not be good for him. Regular AAA at bats would help him more than irregular major league at bats.
Third, Bowker has an option left. I don’t like to keep a player down because of this, but if it’s between Lewis and Bowker, I can see the option being the deciding factor. The Giants would definitely lose Lewis if they placed him on waivers.
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 15, 2010 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Ha, I’m just failing all over in this thread. Talking about Posey when everyone else is talking about Bowker. Just typed out a response to this then accidentally hit cancel. Oh well. We can’t send Lewis to AAA, and we have pretty solid evidence he can actually contribute as a starter. If you really want Bowker to get a shot, it should probably include carrying 6 OF’ers (teams carry too many pitchers anyways), or doing something about Torres/Schierholtz. If this team was thinking clearly Lewis would get solid PT…..
by Missing Barry on Mar 15, 2010 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
or doing something about Torres/Schierholtz. If this team was thinking clearly Lewis would get solid PT…..
Could keeping Vrooom off of the ML roster be seen as doing something about Torres/Schierholtz ? With Torres on the roster, I just don’t see a place for Velez, he seems redundant.
Matt Downs MLB , Now with More STATZ goodness !Matt Downs Fangraphs The Juan Uribe of 2011 !
I’m already assuming Velez doesn’t make it. There’s just no way he has a place on this team.
by Missing Barry on Mar 16, 2010 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions
I hope you’re right. I have little faith in the Giants making the right decision on that one since they really seemed to think he was important last year. But with Torres around maybe they’ll realize that Torres is in fact better than Velez at pretty much everything Velez does.
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 16, 2010 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
Doesn't Velez have an option(s) left?
The fact that he does and Lewis doesn’t bodes well for Lewis.
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
I think so, which hopefully means Lewis stays while Velez goes. But based on the second half last year, the Giants really seem to think highly of Velez. I think I’m overly pessimistic on Velez staying because him staying would reflect very bad organizational thinking.
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 16, 2010 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions
I think I’m overly pessimistic on Velez
I don’t think you can be. Velez sucks. Even when he was “hot”, he wasn’t good.
by Missing Barry on Mar 16, 2010 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
well, Velez was hitting well, at least, when he was hot. The thing is, he was “playing” for a lot longer than he was “hot.”
I would call a small sample .345 OBP and .453 SLG ok, good for the Giants but barely above average overall, but I wouldn’t call that hitting well myself, especially when you know he’s worse than that. That’s what Velez did in July/Aug combined….
by Missing Barry on Mar 16, 2010 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions
I think AAA would be best for Velez
If he’s ever going to harness his tools, more time in the minors, where he can get PT would be best for him.
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
Velez could end up on the roster as infield insurance. So he is competing with Downs for that spot.
Velez also could start in center against tough RHPs.
With 3 weeks or so left in Spring, it could be smart to look at other flexibility options like DeRosa in right and Nate S in center.
cheering for Adam Witter, who will hit bigleague dingers some day.
Still yelling "Go, Antoan"
by foothillsfan on Mar 17, 2010 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Where are you getting that?
Bowker had 450 PAs at Fresno last year alone, per baseball-reference.com, and minorleaguesplits.com gives his MLE for 2009 as .288/.376/.466 .
Adoptive parent of Kevin "The Stopgap" Frandsen.
by EliminateMe on Mar 15, 2010 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
MB thought bradleybear was discussing Posey.
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 15, 2010 12:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, whoops, my bad. Dunno where that came from.
by Missing Barry on Mar 15, 2010 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions
Buster, Bowker, what’s the big difference anyhow.
Adoptive parent of Kevin "The Stopgap" Frandsen.
by EliminateMe on Mar 15, 2010 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
All y’all look alike.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
Two Wrongs Making a Right?
Wow, wouldn’t it be awesome if Giants mgt. short sided SSS loving approach worked in their favor for once, by keeping Lewis (and you know, actually playing him in games that count) because he had a hot spring.
Oh, wait. For a second there I forgot I was a Giants fan.
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VERSATILITY
Adopted Giant: Mike Krukow.
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010
At this point
I am ready to say that:
7IP, 0K, 7 BB, 1HB
are some meaningful and fairly disturbing ST statistics. Although this comment should probably be over on the front page story.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
That’s Maddy’s line, correct? I’m not sure I’d say meaningful, but disturbing sure. Should be missing more bats and fewer strike zones. Still, it’s only 7 innings over three appearances.
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 16, 2010 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Maybe, but loss of velocity and command is a serious red flag to me. It’s hard for me to believe something’s not wrong mechanically, physically or both, and I certainly hope they’re doing everything they can right now to figure out what.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
desperately looking for another explanation
the guy is so young and so big that his body is still filling out and changing mechanically.
And lefties, I think run late in developing coordination. Any elementary school teachers out there? Neurologists?
cheering for Adam Witter, who will hit bigleague dingers some day.
Still yelling "Go, Antoan"
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