wOBA Primer

I'm not the type to self-promote, but the article was originally meant to be posted here. I want to make sure that at least a few McCoven benefit from it.

It's very lengthy and math-y. That said, I suggest reading it when you have the time (and energy) to absorb it. If you don't care to read all the technical details, you can skip to the end for a summary.

about 2 years ago JT Jordan 15 comments 2 recs |

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I've never gotten in to woba

Perhaps because of my lack of belief in situational hitting.

I really don’t believe that hitters are any different with men on or off, with one or two outs, etc.

Plus it’s really complicated, which reading this only confirmed to me.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
My Son was the third most valuable Giant position player by WAR in 2009. A little sad, a little happy.

by GiantPain on Mar 12, 2010 4:37 PM PST reply actions

I'm a bit confused by your comment

wOBA is a context-neutral statistic- so situational hitting plays no role in it whatsoever.

Triples Alley: Analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

by JT Jordan on Mar 12, 2010 5:05 PM PST up reply actions

Ok, hold on, let me re-read it

Section 2 led me to the belief that woba incorporated context

I’m really confused, many sincere apologies

by GiantPain on Mar 12, 2010 5:09 PM PST up reply actions

No need to apologize!

Linear weights are derived from run expectancy charts, which are contextually-based. So its origin is based on context (how much an event adds to the run-scoring process). Linear weights are the average value of an event, so it strips it of context.

Triples Alley: Analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

by JT Jordan on Mar 12, 2010 5:23 PM PST up reply actions

My only real issue with wOBA is the lack of park adjustment, and that is a pretty big issue.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Mar 12, 2010 8:03 PM PST reply actions

Statcorner.com has p-a wOBA

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

by baetown415 on Mar 12, 2010 10:00 PM PST up reply actions

WRC+ trustworthy?

Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.

The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga... CHONE WAR projection= 12.7

Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz... CHONE WAR projection= 12.6

by dregarx on Mar 12, 2010 10:57 PM PST up reply actions

Yes.

It’s basically wOBA park and league adjusted and put onto an OPS+ scale. It’s a rate stat, with is sort of confusing since Runs Created is not. I wish they’d just called it wOBA+, but whatever.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Mar 12, 2010 11:48 PM PST up reply actions

Statcorner.com has wOBA+ ;-)

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

by baetown415 on Mar 13, 2010 2:25 AM PST up reply actions

That’s one of the main knocks on wOBA. Personally, I see this as a non-issue for two reasons:

1. I don’t like to be forced into using a site’s park adjustment as I don’t know how they formulate them.

2. It’s extraordinarily easy to park-adjust wOBA; simply divide by the square root of the park factor.

Triples Alley: Analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

by JT Jordan on Mar 13, 2010 7:10 AM PST up reply actions

I don’t buy 2. It’s always been easy to apply park factors, but what really makes an uber-stat useful (beyond accuracy) is ease of access. People tend to use “obsolete” stats because it only takes a couple seconds to go to any of a number of statistics websites and click through the various comparison tables and other tools provided. If you’re only looking at one player, multiplying by the square of the park factor isn’t a big deal, but if you’re looking at a dozen, or a hundred, or every player, it’s a huge hassle.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Mar 13, 2010 8:49 PM PST up reply actions

I think you’d agree that it’s pretty easy to access StatCorner’s leaderboards. ;)

Triples Alley: Analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.

by JT Jordan on Mar 13, 2010 10:49 PM PST up reply actions

OMG how is thta link not already on my favs? I owe you a beer.

Threat level that the 2010 Pads finish with more wins than the 2010 Giants is currently at - 25%

by daveinexile on Mar 14, 2010 6:25 AM PST up reply actions

I would've posted this

But I was lazy.

But again, nice piece.

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

by baetown415 on Mar 13, 2010 2:26 AM PST reply actions

I enjoy this post. Thanks for breaking down and sharing it.

Over the years I went from mildly and slightly antagonistic towards wOBA (No, it is not just you Giant Pain that looks at "newer" stats with a jaded eye) to truly valuing it. Now days my only gripe is I cannot glance at it and run the stat backwards and forward in the blink of an eye and get the on field meaning of the stat. That will come with time though. I spent decades using isoP , OBP, bb/k and the like and less than a handful of years trying to implement wOBA. If there was younger fan interested in numbers behind this game of 3’s I recommend they put understanding this stat on their list.

Threat level that the 2010 Pads finish with more wins than the 2010 Giants is currently at - 25%

by daveinexile on Mar 13, 2010 8:05 AM PST reply actions