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Around SBN: Jeff Sullivan's MLB Trade Deadline Primer

Didn't realize this was being discussed over there. I'd imagine a lot of different chips would have to fall in a lot of specific ways for this to happen, though...

4 months ago Marauders2_tiny short_shifter 63 comments 0 recs  | 

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I’d be surprised if it happens. I don’t know much about the Rangers’ prospects mentioned, but the idea of the trade intrigues me. I think the Giants should look into dealing Cain because of the potential haul because other teams may overvalue him. That said, I like Cain and would like to keep him. Also, I’m not sure I trust Sabean to make any more trades.

Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.

by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 11, 2010 4:45 PM PST reply actions  

Yechh.

Brian Sabean strongly encourages you to disregard the drudgery of your employment responsibilities and join him in the consumption of spirituous libations.

by satyricrash on Mar 11, 2010 4:53 PM PST reply actions  

Upgraded to #2 at best!

I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory

by Natto on Mar 11, 2010 5:04 PM PST reply actions  

This whole post was invalid to begin with

They’d have to trade with the Brewers to get Cain, and they already have Matt Gamel at first base.

Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW

by jctGamer on Mar 11, 2010 5:06 PM PST reply actions   2 recs

I find their opinions interesting. I remember when Lincecum was being shopped, fans in Cincinnati balked at the idea of trading Jay Bruce for Timmy straight up. Even in Toronto, the fans (if I remember correctly) detested the idea of trading Rios as well.

I’m not saying Holland and Smoak won’t be good players, but I think people get a little too attached to the ability/ceiling of minor league prospects – especially when they might be offered for proven major league players. I hope I’m wrong, but Bumgarner might be a perfect example of this.

by Sabean_Is_Iago on Mar 11, 2010 5:16 PM PST reply actions  

I think you’re right. Except with Bumgarner. No way Giants fans would do that. Jeez.

Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.

by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 11, 2010 5:21 PM PST up reply actions  

Indeed

people do get too attached to the ceiling of minor league prospects.

by FireBrianSabean on Mar 12, 2010 5:25 PM PST up reply actions  

When I made that statement, I was thinking about how Bumgarner went from “bonafide top of the rotation starter” to a middle of the rotation guy within one off-season (according to the “experts”).

by Sabean_Is_Iago on Mar 11, 2010 5:25 PM PST reply actions  

……..and the radar gun.

Much of his “stock value” was based on his velocity. With that not what it was cracked up to be his stock has gone down a bit. Justifiably? Nobody knows. Certainly there have been great pitchers who have made brilliant careers for themselves w/o super-duper-heat. But when heat was a major feature and ability to get guys out at the ML level remains an unknown you have a guy that gets devalued.

Your bench player is our #5 hitter!!!

by Mr. Angry on Mar 11, 2010 6:22 PM PST up reply actions  

The velo drop was bad, and made him a worse pitcher. He developed mediocre offspeed and breaking stuff pretty quickly, which should have brought it back up, considering he’s only 20 and has at least a couple more years to really make those into plus pitches. I think Bumgarner can be a good #2, arguable #1 with a 90 MPH fastball, a plus curve, and a meh changeup with his arm action, which is an entirely obtainable goal. If he ever gets the velocity back, the 93 MPH fastball, plus curve, and meh changeup will make him a #1 level guy.

Possible uses for your Steven Johnson: 5th starter, long reliever, batboy, go-fer, food taster. Just keep him on the roster!

by quincy0191 on Mar 11, 2010 6:38 PM PST up reply actions  

He developed mediocre offspeed and breaking stuff pretty quickly, which should have brought it back up

I’ve never heard any mention of mediocre off-speed stuff. His change up is close to non existent.

And it shouldn’t have brought it back up – improving breaking stuff is expected from a 19 y-o. A 4-5 MPH drop in velocity isn’t. When Bumgarner was rated highly in 2008, it was already partly based on the assumption that he’ll improve his breaking pitch.

Also, 90 MPH is still harder than what he’s throwing right now. He was around 88 in his one start in the majors (he threw harder after that, but the was out of the pen), and that’s was he’s been throwing this spring too.

I was promised lasagna.

by Cookyman on Mar 12, 2010 4:02 AM PST up reply actions  

That should be 2009.

I was promised lasagna.

by Cookyman on Mar 12, 2010 5:40 AM PST up reply actions  

He developed mediocre offspeed and breaking stuff pretty quickly, which should have brought it back up, considering he’s only 20 and has at least a couple more years to really make those into plus pitches

Except that those offspeed and breaking stuff is not MLB-quality, and VELOCITY is an indicator of a pitcher’s ability to develop more movement on their breaking pitches (more arm speed = more spin).

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Mar 11, 2010 6:51 PM PST reply actions  

I’d imagine it’s more about wrist strength. I know in frisbee, a big arm action isn’t that great, it’s all about snapping the wrist to put spin on the disc, and I’d bet it’s the same in baseball, which would be why Zito can pull off a 12-6 curveball with an 88 MPH fastball.

And I know that the other pitches aren’t MLB-quality yet, but I get the feeling that not a lot of people gave him credit for coming in with a plus fastball and nothing else and currently having an okay fastball and some secondary pitches. I think his stock has dropped, but not quite as much as most prospect lists seem to think considering the development of his other pitches. The velo drop is bad, and if he doesn’t regain it, he’ll be a significantly worse pitcher because of it (and because his changeup won’t be as good without the plus fastball), but I’m not sure it’s the end-all be-all.

Possible uses for your Steven Johnson: 5th starter, long reliever, batboy, go-fer, food taster. Just keep him on the roster!

by quincy0191 on Mar 11, 2010 10:25 PM PST up reply actions  

it’s all about snapping the wrist to put spin on the disc,

WELL…IT’S OBVIOUS YOU’VE NEVER PLAYED THE GAME.

Just kidding, drop the – I mean please put down the banhammer.

  Just as some torque from the core is necessary to help develop power in a baseball swing there’s torque and arm motion necessary to hurl a 175g into a beach breeze.

Yes, that snap is necessary for stability through RPMs, but it won’t go anywhere without added thrust.

VELOCITY is an indicator of a pitcher’s ability to develop more movement on their breaking pitches (more arm speed = more spin).

I beg to differ.

   Isn’t snapping off a curve a marriage of both thrust and spin, where the pitcher generates forward motion with his pushoff followed by the core rotation/shoulder/arm extension and whip, but also that insanely painful looking torquing of the wrist and hand? It’s a combination of forces that actually work against each other, and each pitcher has to find the happy medium of applied force to both in order to realize the optimum effect.

  I’m no Mike Marshall, but I suspect that superior arm/wrist mechanics that generate increased spin would result in a better curve, as opposed to how fast the ball moved forward.

  Too much velocity will overwhelm the bite of the curve. Like some bowlers on the PBA tour, where the ball gets down and then breaks over when forward thrust has been lessened by friction with the floor to the point that the rotation pulls it over. If either the pitcher or the bowler applies too much forward thrust the spin is negated accordingly.

   Must be a lot of fun when you lose that "feel" for the right application of either thrust or torque. I hope he finds whatever makes him effective, or we’re all going to be not so much Pedro Feliz as Sadison Bummedgarner.

"I don’t know why people feel the need to come up with reasons 'why' for everything..." - Missing Barry

by victor frankenstein on Mar 12, 2010 2:36 AM PST up reply actions  

bowling, or....

CURLING!!!!!! (almost topical)

Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl

by Viliphied on Mar 12, 2010 3:34 AM PST up reply actions  

Isn’t snapping off a curve a marriage of both thrust and spin, where the pitcher generates forward motion with his pushoff followed by the core rotation/shoulder/arm extension and whip, but also that insanely painful looking torquing of the wrist and hand? It’s a combination of forces that actually work against each other, and each pitcher has to find the happy medium of applied force to both in order to realize the optimum effect.

I said “indicator” not “sole predictor”. Much like 19 year old single-A gap hitter developing power, pure velocity does not automatically mean a wicked slider in the future. Nor does a lackluster fastball automatically mean no breaking stuff. A good fastball improves the odds, though.

Too much velocity will overwhelm the bite of the curve. Like some bowlers on the PBA tour, where the ball gets down and then breaks over when forward thrust has been lessened by friction with the floor to the point that the rotation pulls it over. If either the pitcher or the bowler applies too much forward thrust the spin is negated accordingly.

If there’s enough spin on the ball to begin with, sure. But look at Zito last season: the movement on the curve improved significantly last season, despite the fact that he threw the pitch faster (particularly in comparison to 2007). I don’t think it’s coincidental that his increased movement came along side a velocity bump.

Furthermore, in both throwing a baseball and bowling, the issue is the transfer of force to the ball. The more you use wrist snaps, special grips, and other techniques to impart angular momentum (aka spin), the less efficient you become at imparting straight-line velocity. The more arm speed to have to spare, the more spin you can impart without sacrificing velocity, the weaker your arm, the less. There are pitchers around who are skilled enough with finessing a breaking ball that they can work with a big-breaking slow curve (Randy Wolf is probably the best) or slider (Bronson Arroyo’s probably the best in that department), but Bumgardner’s so far away from developing that kind of breaking ball and mastering that style of pitching that’s it’s hardly worth mentioning at this point.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Mar 12, 2010 7:13 AM PST up reply actions  

Holland, Smoak, and Engel Beltre for Cain? Uh, yes please.

by Evan on Mar 11, 2010 7:08 PM PST reply actions  

Yeah. My reality check on trades includes this.

Would I make the trade? If yes, does it include cash? If No, then the trade is a pipe dream.

Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!

by say hey nation on Mar 11, 2010 7:12 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, seriously. I really like Holland and tossing in Smoak and Beltre is nuts.

#1 FanShot Champion

by xanthan on Mar 11, 2010 7:14 PM PST up reply actions  

Plus imagine all the potential Offspring references!

I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory

by Natto on Mar 11, 2010 8:14 PM PST up reply actions  

But what if Holland, Smoak & Beltre struggle and

The Kids Aren’t Alright Although Matt Cain does need run support maybe he feels like he’s gotta get away

Oh, and Kristy, are you doing okay?

Adopted Giant: Mike Krukow.
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010

by Gobroks on Mar 11, 2010 8:47 PM PST up reply actions  

Cain will be fine, he’s pretty fly for a white guy.

by Into the Void on Mar 11, 2010 8:58 PM PST up reply actions  

But it could hurt his Self Esteem

Adopted Giant: Mike Krukow.
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010

by Gobroks on Mar 11, 2010 9:02 PM PST up reply actions  

As long as he can just Come Out and Play his style of game I don’t think he’ll have any problems.

by Into the Void on Mar 11, 2010 9:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Right but I just don't wanna see him gone away

and in Texas he could develop a bad habit

Adopted Giant: Mike Krukow.
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010

by Gobroks on Mar 11, 2010 9:34 PM PST up reply actions  

Just having him on the team is all I want.

I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory

by Natto on Mar 11, 2010 10:37 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah if given the decision, I choose for him to be a Giant

Adopted Giant: Mike Krukow.
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010

by Gobroks on Mar 12, 2010 1:51 PM PST up reply actions  

I like Holland, but he should still be in the minors.

Also, Cain & that ballpark are not a good match.

The Giants Way™"If anybody deserves credit for this year’s turnaround it’s these two people, Brian and Bruce," Neukom said. "The encouraging thing is we think we’re back to playing baseball the way it ought to be played."

by ResDog on Mar 11, 2010 8:49 PM PST up reply actions  

That wouldn’t be our problem!

I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory

by Natto on Mar 11, 2010 8:55 PM PST up reply actions  

I see Cain’s Fly Ball rate as an extreamely risk proposition for the Rangers unless Arlington keeps flyballs in better than I think it does. Of coarse if the risk paided off the Rangers could expect to reduce the middle relief work load in 2010 by what 70 Innings say give or take 10? That would improove 2 25 mans spots in one move.

Threat level that the 2010 Pads finish with more wins than the 2010 Giants is currently at - 25%

by daveinexile on Mar 12, 2010 2:59 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m in this line. This is going to be the first trade I try to do in MLB 2K10.

Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.

by marcello on Mar 12, 2010 1:05 PM PST up reply actions  

This is getting ridiculous

Wayne Rooney, 1/27/09: Cometh The Hour, Cometh The Man

by Useful_Idiot on Mar 11, 2010 7:44 PM PST reply actions  

I think some are getting as nutty as Glenn Beck

Bumgarner is the real deal, he may become the ace, even is LIncecum remains a giant. Nothing left to prove in the minors, the minor leaguers cant hit the guy no matter what speed his fastball clocks. The heart of this team should be LIncy, Cain, BumG and Sanchez. The pitching got us 88 wins with only Pablo as a legit hitter in the lineup. Bum G belongs in the rotation. WellmeyerVanLandinghamatudedness should be a long reliever. Seems as if Runsler can get guys out even if the mound is 80 feet away from the plate. Keep the rotation intact. Period. No need for an up or down vote.

by bradleybear on Mar 11, 2010 8:31 PM PST reply actions  

Why are you so optimistic on Bumgarner…?

by Missing Barry on Mar 11, 2010 9:18 PM PST up reply actions  

the guy barely hit 90 twice. it was pathetic.

by tjbrun88 on Mar 11, 2010 9:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Well, it’s just spring training, they’re still building up arm strength, but my point is bradleybear keeps making these statements but won’t ever explain why he thinks the way he does. I keep asking, and I keep getting no response….

by Missing Barry on Mar 11, 2010 10:02 PM PST up reply actions  

More importantly, Glenn Beck is nutty? What? Just cause the guy pretends to set people on fire.

Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.

by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 12, 2010 11:49 AM PST up reply actions  

Actually, a 16.4% K rate in AA shows that they actually can hit his stuff. But, of course, it sure won’t look like it with a .240 BABIP.

Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.

by marcello on Mar 12, 2010 1:08 PM PST up reply actions  

Honestly, there is no reason for the Rangers to trade for Cain. That is the single worst fit I can think of in all of baseball. Cain is a great pitcher, but an extreme fly ball guy – his performance would be hurt enormously being in a launching pad like the Rangers play in. A trade with Texas will never happen if both franchises are thinking properly, because Cain has way more value to us because of our HR suppressing park than he has for a HR inflating park like Texas’.

by Missing Barry on Mar 11, 2010 9:20 PM PST reply actions  

if both franchises are thinking properly

You are optimistic about Sabean

Adopted Giant: Mike Krukow.
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010

by Gobroks on Mar 11, 2010 9:35 PM PST up reply actions  

I understand, but Texas would be the one acquiring him, and if they’re thinking right they shouldn’t, so it still works!

by Missing Barry on Mar 11, 2010 9:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah I know

Just a little Sabean bashing ;). I do agree with your premise that Cain in Texas would be a bad fit…the ballpark he plays in is/will be very critical to his success. I hope he stays in SF for a while

Adopted Giant: Mike Krukow.
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010

by Gobroks on Mar 11, 2010 9:47 PM PST up reply actions  

I do like a little Sabean bashing here and there. A lot is good, too. :)

by Missing Barry on Mar 11, 2010 10:01 PM PST up reply actions  

Bashing Sabean is always fun

Adopted Giant: Mike Krukow.
Grab Some Pine, Meat
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010

by Gobroks on Mar 11, 2010 10:10 PM PST up reply actions  

If joo know jus' how ees' done!

"I don’t know why people feel the need to come up with reasons 'why' for everything..." - Missing Barry

by victor frankenstein on Mar 11, 2010 10:24 PM PST up reply actions  

Seriously though first off The Giants would have to have completely different GM for this type of trade to be even remotely considered.

 What are the last 4 under 30 year old brought into the organization, Davis (DFA then to A’s), Klesko ( DFA then to the M’s), Jose Castile (enough said) and Ford ( a 26 year minor leaguer yet to play above A ball). Am I missing any one here? Maybe there is Denker in there somewere. I just can’t Sabean moveing a guy with a record of throwing 200 IP in a trade for a guy that has not thrown more then 170innings in a season yet.

Threat level that the 2010 Pads finish with more wins than the 2010 Giants is currently at - 25%

by daveinexile on Mar 12, 2010 2:53 PM PST up reply actions  

If we could get Strop instead of Beltre this deal is an absolute steal- that said I see no chance the Rangers offer it so if it doesn’t come to fruition I wont blame sabes

Proud father of Barry Zito. As long as he keeps throwing strikes, that is.

by MonkeyChow on Mar 11, 2010 9:49 PM PST reply actions  

I blame Sabean for not making outlandish trades that other teams would never do. I know it’s not fair, but this is baseball!

Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.

by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 12, 2010 11:50 AM PST up reply actions  

THERE IS NO CRYIN’ IN BASEBALL!!!!

Threat level that the 2010 Pads finish with more wins than the 2010 Giants is currently at - 25%

by daveinexile on Mar 12, 2010 3:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Am I undervaluing Cain?

I would probably not flip out about Cain 4 Smoak straight up.

It seems like I’m giving up too much though.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
My Son was the third most valuable Giant position player by WAR in 2009. A little sad, a little happy.

by GiantPain on Mar 11, 2010 10:15 PM PST reply actions  

I think it’s undervaluing. The Rangers would have to throw in at least one more blue-chipper for me to not flip out.

Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.

The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga... CHONE WAR projection= 12.7

Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz... CHONE WAR projection= 12.6

by dregarx on Mar 11, 2010 10:50 PM PST up reply actions  

2 years of Cain for 6 years of Smoak?

I’d probably do it.

Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW

by jctGamer on Mar 11, 2010 11:46 PM PST up reply actions  

I don’t think you are- 1 year of Halladay is at best just as valuable as 2 of Cain, and they returned a blue chip in Taylor and additional good prospects

Proud father of Barry Zito. As long as he keeps throwing strikes, that is.

by MonkeyChow on Mar 12, 2010 5:05 AM PST up reply actions  

I think you’re undervaluing Cain. A 3.5-4 WAR pitcher for a guy who’s coming off a .244/.363.360 line at AAA at age 23? Not to mention he’s a first baseman. He did well in AA, sure, but I just don’t like the idea of trading an already very good MLB pitcher who’s 26 years old for a 23 year old 1B prospect who’s no Jason Heyward. We could end up getting basically nothing in return for Cain in that trade – some prospects fail.

by Missing Barry on Mar 12, 2010 7:43 AM PST up reply actions  

These guys are going to be really disappointed when they find out Cain isn’t a 1 or a 2 TORP. I mean, with Zito announcing his #1 status, that leaves Cain at #3 at best!

by Fresburg on Mar 12, 2010 9:44 AM PST reply actions  

Bill Walsh used to say he worried less about trading a guy too soon than about trading a guy too late. The Oakland A’s work this way, knowing they will not do well in long term deals with a guy just turning into an ace. So they trade people before they start to decline. Cain is gonna get a big paycheck from somebody in 2012, and a long term deal. Midsummer 2010 could be the ideal time to trade Cain if they think he can’t keep going at this pace, throwing Fastballs and getting hit for flyballs.

cheering for Adam Witter, who will hit bigleague dingers some day.
Still yelling "Go, Antoan"

by foothillsfan on Mar 12, 2010 11:31 PM PST reply actions  

The Giants philosophy seems to be the opposite of Bill Walsh: they rather trade a guy 2 years too late than a year too soon.

The Giants offseason moves - "meh"
Proud father of 2-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum, who could do whatever he wants to do.

by SFGuy on Mar 13, 2010 12:34 AM PST up reply actions  

The Giants philosophy seems to be the opposite of Bill Walsh: they rather trade sign a guy 2 years too late than a year too soon ever trade him.

ftfy

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Mar 13, 2010 1:43 AM PST up reply actions  

Bill Walsh: won three Super Bowls, basically created the team that won a fourth.
Brian Sabean: had the second-best hitter in the history of the game for almost fifteen years. Lost one World Series, went to the post-season three other times.

In the end, America will be remembered for three things: the Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.

by cornball on Mar 13, 2010 3:31 PM PST up reply actions  

In general i agree with this rule of thumb. But we are talking about a guy entering his prime years and the first of his decline years ( he would be seeeling his age 28 and on season) and has shown no injury histroy. Pluss if a team can have 3, or more, straters the throw 200 good innings they get to reduce the time it’s weakest middle relief arms are on the field and possibley use a 25 man spot for a non pithcer. To me this is the kind of free agent I want my team going after.

Threat level that the 2010 Pads finish with more wins than the 2010 Giants is currently at - 25%

by daveinexile on Mar 14, 2010 6:21 AM PST up reply actions  

"I don’t know why people feel the need to come up with reasons 'why' for everything..." - Missing Barry

by victor frankenstein on Mar 14, 2010 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

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