Patience Key For Giants
Fellow Giants fans...I am a PA for CSNBA and I wrote this column which I'd like to share with you all. Yes, it is shameless self-promotion but I respect the viewpoints of the regulars on this site and would love constructive criticism. While I have yet to post/comment, I lurk regularly and credit much of my arguments in this article to stuff I've read here. Read if you please and let the bashing commence...
almost 2 years ago
KungFuPandaGrip
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I agree with more of the stuff you wrote than I do when reading most articles. One thing though: you mention problems with sac flies and other situational hitting (basically “doing the little things”). I don’t have the link handy at the moment, but I remember reading a study where teams were ranked for how well they did these things, and the giants were fine. Maybe even slightly above average, I can’t quite remember.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
The Giants were fifth in the Majors in productive outs, at a clip of 34% (MLB average was 32%). They were exactly average at grounding into double plays per opportunity. They were downright terrible at driving in runners from third with less than two outs- last in the Majors, but exactly average at moving the runner from second to third.
In terms of “the little things,” the only thing the Giants weren’t good at was driving in a runner with less than two outs.
Triples Alley: Analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.
I remember hearing stuff like this and I just flat out don’t want to believe it. Maybe these successful sacrifices and productive outs came in 10-run blowouts b/c almost every close loss I remember involved some botched sac or a runner stranded on 3rd or an Aaron Rowand triple play.
by KungFuPandaGrip on Mar 11, 2010 8:35 AM PST up reply actions
I think it’s more like, every team seems bad at that stuff when you watch them.
Mark DeRosa: the rare utility player who can provide some utility.
Put another way, a 33% success rate means 2 failures for every success. You probably do remember a lot more failure because they failed twice as much as they succeeded. You just don’t realize that this is better than most other teams.
Hector Sanchez: Underrated. Fighting body bias since the 2009 off season. I still love you, son, even if you're fat.
Baseball is a game of not failing more than the other team.
Mark DeRosa: the rare utility player who can provide some utility.
Yeah, when a player fails almost 70% of the time by default, it makes it really easy to established a confirmation bias toward an event of failure. 70% of the time, your bias will be confirmed. It’s almost beautiful.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 11, 2010 10:21 AM PST up reply actions
“It’s almost beautiful.”
Just like you, Howie. Just like you.
Proud member of The Gentlemen of Leisure.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Mar 11, 2010 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
I remember hearing stuff like this and I just flat out don’t want to believe it.
This kind of statement doesn’t bode well for your future in the statistical analysis of baseball (or any other subject, really). The whole point is to find out what actually happened; not to reinforce what you “want to believe”.
WHY IS BENGIE?!
Dearest, Susan - The Patron Saint of Patience
by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 11, 2010 10:12 AM PST up reply actions
+1
If anyone wants to get involved in heavy analysis, you have to keep an open mind.
Triples Alley: Analysis of the San Francisco Giants, Baseball, and Sabermetrics.
I agree with other posters in this comment thread. I love, LOVE, that you discussed walks because I think that is clearly the biggest weakness on the Giants and one they did little to address. But I’m not sure the Giants were that bad at the little things, nor that that’s where a team can improve.
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 11, 2010 11:07 AM PST up reply actions
Statistics vs Opinion
Point taken…I’ve never been much of a statistician and my writing background (school newspapers mostly) is filled with opinion pieces, columns, etc. But I tried to incorporate these stats into the article since I found them while doing research for our Giants Season Preview show and I’m still learning how to balance opinion/statistical fact to put out a well thought-out argument. I definitely hear what you guys are saying about the amount of failure in baseball leading to you remembering more of that than success. Where do you find these stats about situational hitting?
by KungFuPandaGrip on Mar 11, 2010 11:21 AM PST up reply actions
“I’m still learning how to balance opinion/statistical fact to put out a well thought-out argument.”
Join the club. 90%+ of professional baseball writers are in the same boat — or worse (I’m looking at you, Jenkins).
Proud member of The Gentlemen of Leisure.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Mar 11, 2010 11:25 AM PST up reply actions
(That first link is just situational hitting stats.)
by chilibean_3 on Mar 11, 2010 11:53 AM PST up reply actions
Much appreciated…my 2010 work season goal will be to get more of these stats into our Giants pre and postgame shows and SportsNet Central.
by KungFuPandaGrip on Mar 11, 2010 12:05 PM PST up reply actions
Now that would be awesome. Good luck!
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 11, 2010 12:34 PM PST up reply actions
Have you met Tim Kawakami?
And if so, is he as much of a tool as we all think he is?
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
Baseball-reference and Fangraphs are amazing stat websites.
by Missing Barry on Mar 11, 2010 11:49 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
+1
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 11, 2010 11:53 AM PST up reply actions
Can this be said enough?
No, I didn’t think so either.
Threat level that the 2010 Pads finish with more wins than the 2010 Giants is currently at - 25%
I would have added something about Buster Posey’s high OBP in the minors.
Overall, a good article. The more people talking about the Giants freeswinging being the biggest problem with the team, the better.
"The Dodgers suck, the Dodgers suck, the Dodgers suck..."
-what passed for good radio when I was 12
by RichHerreraHomer on Mar 10, 2010 11:21 PM PST reply actions
Thought about it…in a forum like this that would be welcomed but I had to skate the line between lunatic fringe and respectable Joe 6-Pack fan. I’m trying to get promoted and the Giants own 30% of Comcast so I stifled my inner-Sabean hate and laid off the Molina signing/Posey benching.
by KungFuPandaGrip on Mar 11, 2010 8:38 AM PST up reply actions
When is doubt…do as Mychael.
Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!
by say hey nation on Mar 11, 2010 8:41 AM PST up reply actions
Also would it help if we wrote someone about how great you are?
Matt Graham is an anagram for .... why don't you ask the scrabble expert!
by say hey nation on Mar 11, 2010 8:42 AM PST up reply actions
Couldn’t hurt…next web chat just keep asking when you can talk to that PA who wrote about plate discipline.
And on a serious note, these positive comments are definitely encouraging and I hope to write fairly regularly (at least monthly, hopefully weekly) and will post (spam) whatever I do on here so keep giving me those web hits and some day I’ll run the network and then the lunatic fringe will run the asylum.
by KungFuPandaGrip on Mar 11, 2010 8:45 AM PST up reply actions
I definitely get the idea of being careful to keep your bosses happy, and mainstream readers too, for that matter. I think you did a good job of walking that line.
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 11, 2010 11:10 AM PST up reply actions
The Giants swung at the first pitch 32.9 percent of the time.
Facepalm! That stat alone makes me sad. (And also makes me think most of the Giants will make excellent beer league softball players after their careers are over)
by m34josh on Mar 11, 2010 12:50 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
I really like that you posted that stat. I’m curious where you got it (I think more baseball writers should source their stats generally) and I think you could write a whole column about that. I was thinking about doing a fanpost about how the Giants perform when they swing at the first pitch, and Dave Cameron of Fangraphs just did three articles in the last two weeks on first-pitch aggressiveness, so if any of that’s useful, I think it’d be great to look at production when a player swings at the first pitch.
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 11, 2010 11:09 AM PST up reply actions
Stats
I don’t remember where I got this specific one exactly but all 5 of the stats listed (OBP is obvious) are from either ESPN.com, MLB.com or Baseball Reference. I knew we’d rank last in all of these but it’s baffling how large the margin is on most of these.
by KungFuPandaGrip on Mar 11, 2010 11:22 AM PST up reply actions
I’m still deciding which is more baffling – the margin by which the Giants are last or the fact management did fairly little to address it this offseason. Sigh.
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 11, 2010 11:54 AM PST up reply actions
It’s a dead tie. I’d be interested to know who some of you guys think would have been the best signings with just plate discipline-related players in mind. Holliday and Bay weren’t the answer but who would you guys have picked over DeRosa and Huff to make this a more patient lineup?
by KungFuPandaGrip on Mar 11, 2010 12:03 PM PST up reply actions
Red Six
WHY IS BENGIE?!
Dearest, Susan - The Patron Saint of Patience
by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 11, 2010 12:03 PM PST up reply actions
Fred Lewis
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
Bengie Molina: "I don't understand why they didn't want to commit to another year, with my numbers and my experience and things like that." Brain Sabean: "He's certainly welcomed back with open arms".
carp (paraphrased): "117 elements, and still no Stanfurdium"
by natteringnabob on Mar 11, 2010 12:08 PM PST up reply actions
I definitely think F.Lew deserved more of a chance last season b/c he was the only guy on the roster that could draw a walk but his defense was abysmal. I don’t like the idea of him as a starting LFer but I don’t think he should be DFAd either.
P.S. Sorry if I fell into the sarchasm.
by KungFuPandaGrip on Mar 11, 2010 12:15 PM PST up reply actions
Also, Fred Lewis! As bad as his defense looks, he seems to be a lot better than most fans realize. LF is where some of the worst defensive players in baseball get stuck – from Manny to Adam Dunn to Carlos Lee to Ryan Braun to Raul Ibanez and more, and compared to them, Lewis’ speed makes him an above average fielder at LF, even when he looks horrible to the viewer. He’s not an amazing player, but his hitting and defense are enough to make him a legitimate starter (especially given his contract), even for a LF.
by Missing Barry on Mar 11, 2010 12:17 PM PST up reply actions
no sarchasm
and I don’t think his defense is “abysmal”.
This offense is, and has been, abysmal, and sitting him as much as he sat last year is plain crazy.
+ what the illustrious Missing Barry said. He doesn’t hit like Carlos Lee, but neither do the people playing in front of him.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
Bengie Molina: "I don't understand why they didn't want to commit to another year, with my numbers and my experience and things like that." Brain Sabean: "He's certainly welcomed back with open arms".
carp (paraphrased): "117 elements, and still no Stanfurdium"
by natteringnabob on Mar 11, 2010 12:51 PM PST up reply actions
I know a lot of people wanted Nick Johnson. Adam LaRoche could have helped. Russell Branyan. Gregg Zaun instead of Molina. Felipe Lopez. Orlando Hudson. Those are a few of the guys available that would have helped discipline/OBP/patience.
by Missing Barry on Mar 11, 2010 12:15 PM PST up reply actions
There was some supourt /intrest in the guy that will be probably be playing some 2nd base for the Pirates this season as well ( Akinori Iwamura ) With his 42.4% Swing rate, 17.2% O Swing rate for his carrer going into his age 31 season could have been better gamble then Fred Sanchez to my eyes.. The move cost the Buc’s and intresting team controlled relief arm. Things are grim Pirates are out thinking your front office.
Threat level that the 2010 Pads finish with more wins than the 2010 Giants is currently at - 25%
Pirates have one of the best front offices in baseball, in my opinion.
by Missing Barry on Mar 14, 2010 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Very hard to say
If only we had a stud position prospect ready to fill in and replace a regular from last year’s lineup who had the worst OBP in all of baseball.
But, clearly, that’s just wishful thinking.
Hector Sanchez: Underrated. Fighting body bias since the 2009 off season. I still love you, son, even if you're fat.
Name O-Swing% Luis Castillo 12.20% Marco Scutaro 12.30% Nick Johnson 14.20% Chone Figgins 14.90% J.D. Drew 15.30% Chipper Jones 15.40% Bobby Abreu 15.90% Mike Cameron 17.40% Nick Swisher 17.40% Jack Cust 17.50% Kosuke Fukudome 17.80% Grady Sizemore 17.90% Denard Span 18.30% Dan Uggla 18.70%
These are the 14 best players in baseball last year ranked by their propensity to swing at balls out of the strike zone. Scutaro, Johnson, Figgins, Cameron, and Cust were all free agents, Castillo, Swisher, and Uggla are trade candidates and Sizemore was actually traded.
I don’t think we had the players to swing a deal for Sizemore or Swisher and Cust is horrible in the field, but any of those other guys would have been nice.
The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga
Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz
The Kids' CHONE WAR projection= 12.7
Current Team's CHONE WAR projection= 12.6
Sorry if it reads badly: by “propensity to swing at balls out of the strike zone”, I mean these guys swung at the fewest number of pitches out of the zone.
The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga
Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz
The Kids' CHONE WAR projection= 12.7
Current Team's CHONE WAR projection= 12.6
Swisher
But we could have gotten him the off-season before this one…
The baseball Satanist
I promise that my adopted Giant, one Zach Wheeler, will not shoot anybody.
I can honestly say I wanted Swisher the whole time….!!!
by Missing Barry on Mar 11, 2010 9:14 PM PST up reply actions
Me too
The baseball Satanist
I promise that my adopted Giant, one Zach Wheeler, will not shoot anybody.
Oops.
Eh…
Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.
The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga... CHONE WAR projection= 12.7
Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz... CHONE WAR projection= 12.6
Good read,
Hey Fred Lewis, remember Mother's Day?
by anotherbadexcuseguitar on Mar 11, 2010 1:33 AM PST reply actions
i like your screen name
Les Plack = more chicks
Yahoo FFL champ 2009
Dingerz.exe League Champs 2009- The Rile Rods...managed by yours truly.
Chose the Saints and the under to win my bet with my ex gf...i'm on a roll.
by Headhunter Rollins on Mar 11, 2010 7:39 AM PST via mobile reply actions 1 recs
+1
You have no future in baseball writing, apparently. You didn’t even list which players are in the best shape of their lives, for example.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
Bengie Molina: "I don't understand why they didn't want to commit to another year, with my numbers and my experience and things like that." Brain Sabean: "He's certainly welcomed back with open arms".
carp (paraphrased): "117 elements, and still no Stanfurdium"
by natteringnabob on Mar 11, 2010 8:19 AM PST up reply actions
My bad…new draft in progress. Aaron Rowand is in such good shape this Spring that last year’s triple plays will only be double plays this year.
by KungFuPandaGrip on Mar 11, 2010 8:33 AM PST up reply actions
30% less outs!
Now THAT’S interesting writing!
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
Bengie Molina: "I don't understand why they didn't want to commit to another year, with my numbers and my experience and things like that." Brain Sabean: "He's certainly welcomed back with open arms".
carp (paraphrased): "117 elements, and still no Stanfurdium"
by natteringnabob on Mar 11, 2010 9:25 AM PST up reply actions
Good article, and definitely a topic which needs to be plastered all over the interwebs.
However, the thought of Aaron Rowand working the count, just to get himself to 2 strikes so he can swing over the top of another slider in the dirt is highly disconcerting…..
Proud supporter of the Fightin' Hydrants.
by Little Napoleon on Mar 11, 2010 8:22 AM PST reply actions
Better than just making an out on the first pitch. At least some chance he draws a walk and get into the bullpen sooner.
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 11, 2010 11:11 AM PST up reply actions
30% less fewer outs!
Fixed. Stat nerds and grammar nerds unite!
Disfrute Los Gigantes every day at www.leftymalo.com
reply fail nerds
retaliate!
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
Bengie Molina: "I don't understand why they didn't want to commit to another year, with my numbers and my experience and things like that." Brain Sabean: "He's certainly welcomed back with open arms".
carp (paraphrased): "117 elements, and still no Stanfurdium"
by natteringnabob on Mar 11, 2010 11:26 AM PST up reply actions
I am a PA for CSNBA…
Poor bastard. We should set up a canned food drive for you and your co-workers. Your salary is shamefully criminal.
Haha…thank you. It is…on the other hand sitting on your ass watching Giants baseball 162 days a year almost makes up for it keeps me sane.
by KungFuPandaGrip on Mar 11, 2010 11:23 AM PST up reply actions
on the other hand sitting on your ass watching Giants baseball 162 days a year almost makes up for it keeps me sane.
We obviously are not watching the same Giants.
Bochy: What’s this fancy stat here?
IT Guy: That’s how often they get on base. I do not know why you keep asking me, I am here to fix your server.
#2 in Fanshots
Luckily I’m a step up on the totem pole from that guy…PA = Production Assistant…it can get as brainless as working the ticker or the teleprompter up to researching statistical graphics for shows, writing highlights and occasionally getting a chance to produce a package…I’ve got a few Giants ones in the works including a no-hitter anniversary special. Save the date.
by KungFuPandaGrip on Mar 11, 2010 12:01 PM PST up reply actions
and occasionally getting a chance to produce a package
Goofus does this all the time.
WHY IS BENGIE?!
Dearest, Susan - The Patron Saint of Patience
by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 11, 2010 12:04 PM PST up reply actions
This is much much better than Urban
Good work, except for the criticisms people have brought up in this thread.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
Thank you kind sir. And all the criticisms have been valid and presented in a respectable manner so I will definitely bring more of my work to this forum in the hopes of honing my craft.
by KungFuPandaGrip on Mar 11, 2010 12:16 PM PST up reply actions
I think you mean "respectful"
Nothing this group does is “respectable”
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
Nicely done. You managed to not sound condescending to either “camp” of fans and that is no small task considering us Giants fans will argue over the color of shite…
Threat level that the 2010 Pads finish with more wins than the 2010 Giants is currently at - 25%
CHARTREUSE!
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Mar 14, 2010 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Good stuff
My initial reaction upon reading the title was, “well yeah, in other news – water is wet”. But now that I see it’s met for a universal audience you did a pretty good job in explaining what the problem really was, as opposed to The Problem, which we all know is Fred Lewis.
So you want patience
and you want it now?
Honorary parent of Duane Kuiper because he, like all of us, drinks to make the Giants seem better.
Exactly…I’m glad someone gets it. My work here is done.
by KungFuPandaGrip on Mar 19, 2010 7:29 PM PDT up reply actions
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