Spring training stats, what are they good for?
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 10, 2010 12:38 PM PST
73 comments
I love stats. I think most people on this site love stats or at least recognize their value. Yay for stats. However, not all stats are created equal. Spring training stats, for example, are not terribly valuable for several reasons: small sample size, players are not at full strength, pitchers are developing pitches and not going all out, etc. Lincecum, for example, currently has an ERA of 18.00 and a WHIP of 4.00 – probably because of a combination of all three listed reasons rather than a sudden talent crash. Unless he just wanted to cash in with his new contract and is now permahigh…
However, I’m wondering what (if any) value we can get out of spring training stats. Are there particular stats that people look at it to see how a player is progressing during spring training? For example, I ignore ERA for pitchers and batting average for hitters but care about walks for both. I think pitchers being able to throw strikes is always important, although less so in spring training because a pitcher may be working on pitches and/or is not physically ready yet. As for walks by hitters, I think hitters should always have a sound plate approach, and well, that’s nice to see on this team anytime. Are there particular players people watch, ignoring veterans while paying attention to those trying to prove themselves or earn a roster spot? I’ve been keeping an eye on Bowker, Lewis and Posey for that reason. Also, I think Giants’ management, unfortunately, puts some stock in spring training homeruns, RBI and batting average, so I want to see Bowker, Lewis and Posey impress with those numbers even if I consider other stats more important.
Or do people ignore spring training stats altogether?
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Me as well.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
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I figured most people do, and it makes sense. Still fun to play with sometimes though – Rowand will hit .462 all year! The Giants can’t lose!
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 10, 2010 1:05 PM PST up reply actions
I look at velocity, if you want to count that as a stat, but with a grain of salt since guys are still working their arm strength back up.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
I am pretty nervous about him. Not panic mode yet, but nervous.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
Yeah, me too.
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 10, 2010 2:46 PM PST up reply actions
But….Wellemeyer.
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Mar 10, 2010 3:03 PM PST up reply actions
OUR LORD AND SAVIOR!!!!
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Bingo.
Bochy: What’s this fancy stat here?
IT Guy: That’s how often they get on base. I do not know why you keep asking me, I am here to fix your server.
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I actually take this one step further
and ignore spring training altogether
TEMPORARY SIG AWAITING FINAL SABEAN APOCALYPSE
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Would you call the Giants FO and inform of this decision ? I think it is one they should follow.
Matt Downs MLB , Now with More STATZ goodness !Matt Downs Fangraphs The Juan Uribe of 2011 !
well
I mean, I think the players should, you know, practice and get ready for the season and stuff.
Where else are you going to get IN THE BEST SHAPE OF YOUR LIFE.
Spring Training serves a purpose, like batting practice or post-game spreads. I just don’t care about it.
TEMPORARY SIG AWAITING FINAL SABEAN APOCALYPSE
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game in development
I completely ignore them. One reason is because it’s way too small of a sample size. The other is because these players are facing a wide array of talents- one day they’ll be facing a staff ace, and the next they’ll be hitting against a Single-A scrub.
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I mostly ignore them, though if you hear about a guy trying to work on a certain thing (like drawing walks), I guess I’d glance at it to see how he’s doing. Much like basketball summer league, I think most of the value comes in the scouting/observation side of things. Maybe a pitcher is trying to learn a new pitch – how is that pitch looking? Does a guy coming off injury look to be back to full strength? How does a guy switching positions look in his new place in terms of his skillset? Does Buster Posey really let every single pitch in the dirt by him, or is the organization lying and he actually blocks some of them? How are certain pitchers velocity?
I was wondering about this, if spring training (perhaps because the stats are not helpful) is a time where scouting observations take on more importance. I’m definitely interested in the new curveball Lincecum is working on, as well as in Bumgarner’s and Zito’s velocity.
And I hear Posey plays a mean first base…
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 10, 2010 1:20 PM PST up reply actions
Absolutely nothing. Unless you’re talking about spring training WAR. Then… no… wait…
I don't know about that, to the groin.
All I know for sure is that at their current rate, the Giants will win 138 games this year. WINZ!!!
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 10, 2010 1:26 PM PST up reply actions
Here is how I get to my W/L estimates
I yank out the most pessimistic number I can find in jcb9’s ass and add 3 WINZ to it.
WHY IS BENGIE?!
Dearest, Susan - The Patron Saint of Patience
by Lars The Wanderer on Mar 11, 2010 11:47 AM PST up reply actions
…say it again!
Fred Lewis can stand under my umbrella.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
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by S.F. Giangst on Mar 10, 2010 7:56 PM PST up reply actions
Absolutely Nothing
If you are Tim Lincecum. However if your name is Madison Bumgarner, Todd Wellemeyer, Kevin Pucetas it is the world.
I beat you to that absolutely nothing punch.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 10, 2010 2:10 PM PST up reply actions
Well, I wouldn’t want to beat you guys over the head with the joke.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 10, 2010 2:56 PM PST up reply actions
What would you like to beat us over the head with?
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by Josh from Hollywood on Mar 10, 2010 5:40 PM PST up reply actions
I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t intrigued.
Proud member of The Gentlemen of Leisure.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Mar 10, 2010 11:19 PM PST up reply actions
THERE'S METAL INSIDE!
"I don’t know why people feel the need to come up with reasons 'why' for everything..." - Missing Barry
by victor frankenstein on Mar 11, 2010 5:57 AM PST up reply actions
TWSS!
Adoptive parent of Kevin "The Stopgap" Frandsen.
by EliminateMe on Mar 11, 2010 10:31 AM PST up reply actions
Like the man requested
He said it again
The Giants Way™"If anybody deserves credit for this year’s turnaround it’s these two people, Brian and Bruce," Neukom said. "The encouraging thing is we think we’re back to playing baseball the way it ought to be played."
Really no one yet?
Ab-so-lutely Nothin’ HUH
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Go Roger Kieschnick! And son, please continue to break scoreboards on your way to San Francisco.
I’m really surprised that wilriv didn’t jump all over that reference.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 10, 2010 2:39 PM PST up reply actions
Wondering
Will Tusks delete his own post that makes him look stoopid?
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
I don’t know about him, but I should probably employ that strategy myself more often…
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Mar 10, 2010 2:57 PM PST up reply actions
They mean nothing. Unless they help me prove a point.
The Giants Way™"If anybody deserves credit for this year’s turnaround it’s these two people, Brian and Bruce," Neukom said. "The encouraging thing is we think we’re back to playing baseball the way it ought to be played."
Stats: being alternatively ignored and used to prove points since the dawn of time.
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 10, 2010 3:09 PM PST up reply actions
I like ST stats
It’s helped me realize just how much Lincecum sucks and what an OBP machine Molina is.
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
He’s so patient at the plate this year!
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Mar 10, 2010 3:05 PM PST up reply actions
BEST DISCIPLINE OF HIS LIFE!!!
Proud member of The Gentlemen of Leisure.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Mar 10, 2010 5:42 PM PST up reply actions
Velez’s walk rate is something like 14%. Base-on-balls machine!
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 10, 2010 3:08 PM PST up reply actions
I’m not sure your adopted child appreciates you discussing his batting practice rituals so openly.
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 10, 2010 3:33 PM PST up reply actions
I disregard the stats
Bonds... hit is high.... He hits it DEEEEEEEP..... OUTTA HERE BONDS STANDS ALONE- Duane Kuiper on 756
by Newcomb29(EDGE) on Mar 10, 2010 3:27 PM PST reply actions
I agree with everything above.
One thing I would add as a possible stat to watch: strikeouts for hitters. If a guy is striking out more than his usual rate, he might be out of sync and may start the season slow. Or a young player on an invite (like a guy who was in single-A last year) striking out at a higher rate than the previous year could mean that he is over-matched. Then again, with the small sample size of Spring Training, it would be really easy to over-react to either of the situations that I wrote above.
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Please fire Brian Sabean.
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by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Mar 10, 2010 5:25 PM PST reply actions
I would rather they be good than bad
But I don’t think much about them.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
My Son was the third most valuable Giant position player by WAR in 2009. A little sad, a little happy.
Stop worrying about Madbum
The guy is going to be our ACE. He is going to be more effective than Timmy. Rotation next year (2011)will be Madbum, Lincy,Cain, Sanchez. (unfortunately Zito). If Madbum becomes our 5th starter this year. he will blow away Fernando Valenzuela’s rookie stats. And, he will not have to make his neck rotate 360 degrees and look toward the Andromeda galazy with every pitch. Also his eyes will not roll back in his head.
I'm all for optimism
But that’s still a little unrealistic
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
Maybe chasm? I really can’t tell. I think he’s absolutely got the potential to be a number 1 starter, on a team whose number 1 starter wasn’t an ungodly combination of Christy Mathewson, Sandy Koufax, and Harry Callahan. Upside’s still ridiculous, but the floor’s started to appear, and it’s a bit scary how low it might be compared to what I thought was a worst-case scenario for him just a little while ago. Could be nothing, but the velo drop does give me the heebie-jeebies a bit, especially because his secondary pitches aren’t good enough to get by on if his fastball isn’t as good as it looked like it was early in his minor league career. It’s his bread and butter, and if it’s ineffective in the majors he’s got serious problems.
Proud parent of the new dominant pitching sensation out of San Diego State University.
I can't tell if it's chasm or not either
I still think that Bumgarner could be an ace if his velo’s around 90 consistently, but I’m not expecting it like I was last year.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
Sure he could.
If he keeps his elite command and develops a plus breaking ball or change up. The biggest problem with Bumgarner’s disappearing fastball is it was widely reported to be his only MLB-quality pitch (and what I saw of his slurvy breaking ball last season didn’t lead me to doubt those reports).
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Dirty Harry Callahan? Hadn’t thought about that, but I like it.
Eagerly anticipating adding to my Giants family.
by giantsfansince1981 on Mar 11, 2010 10:02 AM PST up reply actions
You’ve posted stuff like this a few times now, and every time, I ask….why do you think that? You have yet to answer….
by Missing Barry on Mar 11, 2010 7:39 AM PST up reply actions
Other than maybe Strasberg
I’m not sure how anyone could look at any prospect and say “He’s going to be more effective than Lincecum”. I mean, that’s a ridiculously high bar of expectations to put on a guy.
As great as Lincecum looked rolling through the minors, it would not have been fair to say “He’s going to be better than Pedro”
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
Whatever. Poseys’a already better than Mauer.
by Missing Barry on Mar 11, 2010 10:03 AM PST up reply actions
I think it would be fair, Pedro Astacio was pretty mediocre. And his heart was full of blue icky stuff.
by microwave donut on Mar 11, 2010 10:05 AM PST up reply actions
Bubble gum ice cream?
Adoptive parent of Kevin "The Stopgap" Frandsen.
by EliminateMe on Mar 11, 2010 10:35 AM PST up reply actions
Pedro Feliz, you're an idiot
Pedro Feliz was talking about Pedro Feliz
The Giants Way™"If anybody deserves credit for this year’s turnaround it’s these two people, Brian and Bruce," Neukom said. "The encouraging thing is we think we’re back to playing baseball the way it ought to be played."
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