Angel Villalona Community List Poll
by marcello on Feb 8, 2010 10:59 AM PST
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PrintOk, so Jesus Guzman won the 40th and final spot on our list. Now, we're going to do a vote for where Angel Villalona should be placed. To place him, please read this:
On your personal prospect list, not the community list, where would you place Angel Villalona if he was guaranteed to be playing baseball in the US this spring?
Also, I'm wondering if I should just take the winner of the poll as his place, or if I should do a weighted average. Thoughts?
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Yup
I’d also edit this and include the community list (at least the top 15) so we can compare more easily.
I think people are missing this bit: The community list should be ignored for this exercise. Vote for where Villalona would go on your list.
No, I understand that, but I seriously doubt anyone’s top five are hugely different from what was posted, and seeing as I don’t spend my free time compiling a ranking of the Giants’ minor leaguers, I don’t really have a list. The community list with some changes is my list, and I’d imagine that’s at least close to the case for most other people too.
I don't know
Gives a lot of power to fringe voters. Right now 10% have him at 15 – smells like criminal bias to me.
I was promised lasagna.
Yeah
That is an issue. I’m not really sure what to do with the votes for 15, since that many are pretty clearly wrong.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
I don’t thinking people are wrong. But the fact that right now 5 is leading, then 6.. then 15 (then 7, then 4), shows there’s something wrong. There’s a clear consensus that he’s in the top 10, in particular between 3 and 7, and then there’s a significant amount of people is voting him at 15. To me, that seems to suggest that at least some are ranking him low because of his legal issues. Otherwise, that’s just a bizarre distribution of votes.
I was promised lasagna.
That's what I meant
I can see a few people voting him at 15, but this many means people are probably ignoring the voting instructions.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
Right now #5 is leading, but it only has 27%, which really isn’t much. And over 60% think he should be lower than that. So maybe knock him down to 6?
I was promised lasagna.
I voted 5
More Power Potential than Kieschnick, and both are flawed.
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by Giant among Angels on Feb 8, 2010 12:11 PM PST up reply actions
I would be still drinking the kool aid about AnVil's bat
Those Miguel Cabrera comps got to me
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010
Both need to dramatically improve their K/BB to become any good. One is 18, the other 22.
I was promised lasagna.
That's what I was trying to say
But I said it less coherently
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010
by Gobroks on Feb 8, 2010 10:49 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I don’t know, in some ways his age works against him also. I gotta include his potential to go full blown Orson Welles by age 25 if not 21. He ate himself out of every position but 1B before he was old enough to vote. That’s significant. It’s understandable to say they both need to work on approach but Villalona is younger and thus more likely to succeed due to the Olddognewtricks theorem, but it’s not like Kieschnick is Old Man River. Kieschnick is a superior athlete and it’s hard to ignore. Seems a little healthier between the ears too but that’s just wild speculation.
But the worst case scenario doesn’t matter – neither one is looking like a major leaguer right now. They both have to make drastic improvements to be any good, and a young player has a much better chance of doing that. Yeah, Villalona has a lower floor, but we don’t care about the floor when it’s below major league level.
I was promised lasagna.
I don’t know that I’d go that far. Kieschnick seems to have a pretty well-rounded game, so some simple work on his offensive game planning could quite conceivably transition him to being a solid player. His season at San Jose was quite similar to Schierholtz’ (877 OPS to 876, 130/36 k/bb to 132/32), who was a year younger but was also repeating the league. And he’s almost certainly ahead of where Nate was as a defensive RF at that point. Of course, I’m about as negative when it comes to Nate as anybody on this board, so perhaps thats not the best comparison, but he is the odds on favorite to be our starting RF this season, so he’s definitely a major leaguer. In a best case scenario Kiesch refines his approach and comes closer to his ceiling than it looks to me that Nate is going to, but regardless I suspect he’ll wear at Giants uni at some point in the next few years.
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Nate managed to overcome a huge hole in his game – the strikeouts – and still doesn’t look like he’ll manage to be a solid player, because of the other hole – the patience.
It’s not that I don’t like Kieschnick, because I do. But my main point is this: he needs a pretty drastic change in major aspects of his game to be good. And the older a player is, the less likely that change is to come.
This is also why I like Adrianza over Crawford.
I was promised lasagna.
Kieschnick had a much higher walk rate in college, I wonder why that is. Obviously the talent level he was facing improved, but his K/BB ratio got much worse.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
I assume you mean (bad) coaching? I believe they were working with him on his swing, so hopefully as he gets more comfortable, the discipline will return.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
Who's 5?
Joseph?
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010
OK... I can see that argument
I have RafRod at 8 behind Kieschnick, Joseph & Crawford but then again I’m one of the few who has Wheeler ahead of Neal so…
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010
Youth + tools + early indications of actual plate discipline!!! add up to an irresistible combo for me. I agree on Wheeler though.
Yeah its easy for people to dream on RafRod
Hopefully the Giants don’t rush him like they did with Angel. A full year in SK should help him
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010
err
He can’t have a full year at SK. That’s short-season.
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11-13 range
I don’t think his bat will be as productive as I had previously thought (I think he’ll end up having an average average, average/below average OBP, and good but not great slugging) and even if he’s +5 at first (doubtful), I still think he’ll have a hard time cracking the 2-2.5 WAR barrier…
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
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That “average average” confused me a bit :). “Mediocre average” might have been a better choice of words.
Hahaha that's true
I also meant that I think his batting average will be in the .260-.270 range at his best, and I think league-average batting average is always around .265…
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
Even in his bad year last year, Villalona had a 130 isolated SLG in A+, as an 18 year old. That’s still way more impressive, power-wise, than what guys like Dunn, Cabrera, Adrian Gonzales, and Delgado did at that age.
There are a few who showed a lot of power at 18 – like Guerrero and Fielder – but the did it at Rookie League, three whole levels below where Villalona was at 18.
The only player I could find who really showed more power as an 18 year old anywhere above short season ball is Alex Rodriguez, who slugged .570 while spending almost half the season between AA and AAA (and the rest at A). Which is really mind blowing. He was even a better prospect than he is a player.
There are a lot of things that could (and seem likely to) prevent Villalona from ever being good, but it’s still hard to see him hit for anything other than great power. It really is off the charts.
I was promised lasagna.
Andruw Jones minor league career is ridiculous. He may well be the greatest “prospect” there’s ever been in the “prospecting era”.
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A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Beltre’s pretty close. Andruw was 18 in the Sally League and hit .277/.372/.512; Beltre was a full year younger and hit .307/.406/.586.
Of course, Andruw also stole 56 bases and played a supernal center field that year.
Followed by an outstanding .317/.407/.561 at 18 in the hit stingy FSL. But Jones 19 year old season was an extraordinary .339/.421/.652 across three levels.
But yeah, Griffey, too.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Beltre’s defense at 3B was incredible too, though, and he had great K/BB numbers. He actually had more walks than strikeouts both as an 18 year old in A+, and as a 19 year old in AA. Think back at how amazing that sentence is.
I’ll again throw Rodriguez into the discussion – .312/.376/.577 as an 18 year old between A and AAA, followed by .360 /.411/.654 in half a season in AAA as a 19 year old. And he was still a good defensive SS.
But I still think Beltre wins.
I was promised lasagna.
He actually had more walks than strikeouts both as an 18 year old in A+, and as a 19 year old in AA.
His 19 year old season he was very very close to the ultimate elite prospect stat: more BBs AND more XBH than SO. That’s my holy grail of prospecthood!
We also came very close to that last year. As a 19 year old in High A, AA, and AAA last year Jason Heyward had 51K, 51 BB, and 46 XBH.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Isn’t it weird that Beltre has gone from that to being a “close your eyes and swing hard” guy? And it keeps getting worse as he gets older.
It is weird
No only that – it didn’t happen straight away. Beltre’s two best season in terms of walks were 1999 and 2000 – his two first years in the majors! In those two years he had unintentional walk rates around league average (slightly below average in 1999, slightly above average in 2000). That’s relatively promising, considering he was 20 (!!) years old, and didn’t really have great power – .424 SLG in 1999.
Beltre took 49 unintentional walks in 1999, and 54 in 2000. He’s only reached 40 three times since, and hasn’t managed to pass 44 – which he reached in 2004, when he hit 48 home runs. That is a bizarre career path.
I was promised lasagna.
Also
He set his personal record for IBB’s in his first year (12). Again, Beltre slugged .424 that year – he’s been over that 5 times since. He hit 15 home runs, which he’s beaten 7 times since.
He was actually getting walked because of his minor league performance. That’s pretty cool.
I was promised lasagna.
And, thinking about it
Why did the Giants jump Villalona to A+? I remember thinking it was aggressive but not crazy, but, after looking at all these guys, it seems like much more of an extreme move than I had thought.
I was promised lasagna.
He did okay in Augusta, why not promote him? I’d say the questionable decision was to send him to Augusta at 17, rather than keeping him in Arizona to work on conditioning, fundamentals, etc.
Yeah, my bad, that’s what I meant. Wasn’t he like the first 17 year old in A ball history of something? His Arizona League performance was very impressive considering his age, but it’s not like he dominated. It’s surprising they had him skip short season A. Not necessarily saying it was wrong. Just unusual.
I was promised lasagna.
Actually 17 isn’t horribly unusual in the Sally. Adrian Beltre (as mentioned above) had been a 17 year old in the Sally. Fernando Martinez and Elvis Andrus had been there at 17 a couple years before Angel.
In fact, the year Angel was there the Sally was exceptionally loaded with young prospects. Montero, Heyward, Freeman, Stanton, Bumgarner, and Matt Dominguez were all 18. Nick Noonan who’s only about 15 months older than Angel was a graybeard at 19. Michael Almanzara was also 17 (born 3.5 months after Angel), and Wilmer Flores actually made a very brief appearance at age 16!
I could find several more, but you get the point.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
5-9
I can still hear the sound of his bat last spring in SJ. I have zero scouting experience whatsoever, but in my experience, he hit the ball harder than anyone I have ever seen hit a baseball in person, save BLB.
I thought he was falling behind before he got hurt and then the injury pretty much sealed this season as a bad year for him. I placed him at 15.
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by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Feb 8, 2010 1:57 PM PST reply actions
I’ve got him somwhere between 6-11. The power is there, but not much else yet. Of course he is only nineteen (?).
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I figured 6th
If he dodges this bullet, he should be able to become a better hitter. Dodging the bullet has to be harder for him than hitting a baseball. He is just a big galute.
10-15
I went in this range. When he makes contact, it’s amazing, and he hit by far the furthest home run I’ve ever seen in SJ. However, he does not make much contact, much less than Kieschnick. His athleticism and defense is a bit underrated I feel.
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I ranked him 16. Guy at 19 built like Molina at 35 = fat,slow, injury-prone, hacker, shooting at slop nightly
by E Ticket on Feb 8, 2010 4:37 PM PST reply actions
even before he got pinched, there were serious reasons to be concerned about his prospect status, which dropped considerably this season.
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by nostocksjustbonds on Feb 8, 2010 5:35 PM PST reply actions
These are my thoughts as well.
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Agreed
He belongs in the teens
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by MetalFaceDoom on Feb 9, 2010 12:33 AM PST up reply actions
Did it? He didn’t get any better, but he climbed a level and didn’t really get any worse. It was a wasted year in the sense that there were no glimmerings of the discipline and maturity he’s going to need if he’s ever going to make anything of his talent, but I’m not sure how much you can hold that against him given his age.
I put him at 6. However, this is more of a function of the drop in top notch prospects in the org than anything. As much of a Crawford fan as I am, I can’t justify putting him ahead of Villalona, even considering the poor year from Villalona.
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This is basically where I am. He had a disappointing year, definitely, but he still has more potential with the bat than anyone in the organization. It wouldn’t have been a crime for him to repeat at San Jose. An undeserved promotion to Richmond would have sent the wrong message and an extra couple of months in San Jose may have given him the opportunity to work on flaws in his swing/approach instead of trying to adjust to a new level. I would have trouble dropping him behind guys like Crawford, Kieschnick, Runzler and Noonan because his ceiling is just so much higher.
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i voted #5
he has his flaws for sure, but i think he held his own in high A ball as one of the youngest, if not THE youngest player in the league. do we really think he wouldn’t surpass kieschnick’s numbers if angel was in san jose for his 5th year in a row , which would be the age equivelant ?
I have him at 10. That said, I generally weigh sure thing major leaguers a bit more and ceiling and projectability a bit less. If he’s a success, he’ll be a huge one, but there’s a pretty decent chance he never really turns into anything if he doesn’t drop the strikeouts by at least a good amount. I also haven’t really heard anything about his ability against different pitches, but i feel like a lot of guys like him can hit the crap out of fastballs but look silly on any sort of decent off-speed or breaking stuff.
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My feeling is that guys with huge ceilings have just that much more cushion for “failure” or diminishing development than other players. And a good example of that is Travis Ishikawa. His minor league career has mostly been made up of setbacks and failures, and it’s pretty clear that he’s never going to be the potential star hitter that scouts saw in him out of high school (potential that we paid $1million bonus for to lure him away from his college commitment). But, his ceiling was so high that even though he’s come nowhere close to reaching it, he still seems to be a decentish major leaguer.
I also am a decided skeptic regarding “sure thing major leaguers”. I’d be willing to make that claim about Buster Posey, but that’s probably the end of my list. I certainly believe in Thomas Neal, but I know there’s enough debate about him among people who aren’t Giants fans to know that some major part of my belief is hope. And I think Bumgarner is almost assured of a career, but I know the history of high prospect pitchers enough not to put money on it. I like Dan Runzler, but I wouldn’t call him a sure thing major leaguer at this point — too many things could derail his career, most likely (as we saw last season with Alex Hinshaw) control problems.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Panda Camp might help him. The one SJ game I saw, there were 2 bobbles on grounders I think. A bit lazy or passive out there and does not bend over well due to all that spare tire around his middle.
And pulling muscles is mostly preventable, I would think, if you have the discipline to stretch and condition seriously.
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Can someon update me on his status, both from a legal standpoint and with the Giants.? Maybe I havn’t been following closely, but I have no idea where things stand.
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My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Also, just in a vacuum:
You have a 16 year old with talent and you want to make him into a great baseball player. I’d imagine giving him $2.1mil is about the worst way to do this.
I know that’s the way the system works, but talk about distraction from what needs to be a singular focus.
Nobody likes money
voted #5
he still seems a notch below the top 4, but he still a damn good prospect, although he could quickly fall to the teens. i think people who do put him that low are subconsciously taking the legal troubles into consideration, although that’s understandable
10
I’m a guy who likes the results at a higher level type of prospect just because I think it mitigates some unknown variables like 9th round guys “figuring it out” (Runzler), and first rounders just not quite “putting it all together” (Fairley). Love those euphemisms. Also there are unsavory variables like you know, drug problems and criminal activity. These lists are inherently dynamic and I don’t see a reason to be sheepish about that.
Angel had a disappointing year in a lot of ways on the field before the injury or the incident. Also, I said this earlier but the guy ate himself into one position before he was old enough to vote. Which, he doesn’t particularly shine at either. Danger! Danger! That’s a lot of pressure on a bat. Still makes my #10 for that bat though, above guys like Raf Rod, who, could turn out to top my list this time next year, but hey, one thing I know is some stuff will happen and I will reevaluate after said stuff occurs.
So
The weighted average is ~7.33, the median is 6, and the mode is 5, unless I did something horribly wrong in my calculations. As such, it makes sense to me to put him at 7.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
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