The In Context Case For The Franchise Getting $13M

by giantsrainman on Feb 6, 2010 11:49 PM PST

Prior to Tim Lincecum only one other pitcher in MLB history has entered his first year of arbitration having already earned two Cy Young Awards. In addition only two other pitchers have entered their first years of arbitration having already earned a single Cy Young Award. In all three of these instenses the first year of arbitration was 1988. The three pitchers respectively are Roger Clemens, Dwight Gooden, and Bret Saberhagan. If Super 2 had existed in 1987 all three of these pitchers would have qualified as they started their careers in 1984 but not early enough in 1984 to get credit for a full year of service and thus did not qualify for arbitraitn until 1988. The records of these three pitchers entering their first year of arbitration and the Franchise's are as follows:

Roger Clemens 60-22, 767 Innings, 694/216 K/BB, 1.14 WHIP, 3.11 ERA, 2 CYs, 1 MVP

Dwight Gooden 73-26, 924 Innings, 892/275 K/BB, 1.11 WHIP, 2.46 ERA, 1 CY, 1 ROY

Bret Saberhagan 55-39, 806 Innings, 506/156 K/BB, 1.14 WHIP, 3.39 ERA, 1 CY

Tim Lincecum 40-17, 599 Innings, 676/217 K/BB, 1.15 WHIP, 2.76 ERA, 2 CYs

In 1987 the salary structure of MLB was vastly different then it is now. The MLB Minimum Salary was $62K then while it is $400K today. In 1987 MLB's highest salary was Mike Schmidt's $2.127M while it was Alez Rodriguez's $33M in 2009. So we obviously can not just use the dollar figures from back then. But, perhaps we can use where these dollars figures rank compared to the dollar figures of other players. The first year arbitration salaries of Clemens, Gooden and Saberhagen in 1988 were $1.35M, $1.4M, and $1.1M which according to this link made them the 36th, 31st, and 54th highest paid players in all of MLB. Compared to 2009 salaries where does The Franchise's request of $13M rank relative to this? By my count using COTs there were 41 players last year paid more then the $13M Timmy is asking for while there were 105 paid more then the $8M the Giants offered.

In this context, which number looks closer to reality?

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Comments

Timmy wins. Gigantes should just concede right now.

Andy Lee for MVP! Hey, that rhymes...

by Ramah71 on Feb 7, 2010 10:54 AM PST reply actions

13 million

I don’t profess to know what the hell I’m talking about but can someone explain to me why it is beneficial to low-ball Timmy when a figure of 9.5 to 10 million would’ve give the Giants a much better shot of winning the arb case?

I'm the B to the O, W-K-E-R and if I wasn't I'd be nailin balls off chevron cars

by TheBigLeBowker on Feb 7, 2010 10:54 AM PST reply actions

Don’t both sides have to submit their number without knowing what the other is submitting?

Maybe the Giants thought he was going to ask $10M. If so, $8M isn’t that far off.

"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.

by Goofus on Feb 7, 2010 10:58 AM PST up reply actions

I was under the impression the player submits his figure and the team counters with their offer with the knowledge of what the player requested

I'm the B to the O, W-K-E-R and if I wasn't I'd be nailin balls off chevron cars

by TheBigLeBowker on Feb 7, 2010 10:59 AM PST up reply actions

Pretty sure both sides submit blindly.

by speckops on Feb 7, 2010 11:21 AM PST up reply actions

Blindly, but each side knows from negotiations what the numbers under dispute are.

Yes, really, I have not updated my blog in a long long time: http://skaldheim.livejournal.com/tag/baseball

by Skaldheim on Feb 7, 2010 12:43 PM PST up reply actions

It would have been funny had Lincecum asked for $8 million and the Giants offered $13 million.

"meh"

by SFGuy on Feb 7, 2010 5:36 PM PST up reply actions

I wonder if it’s ever happened. Presumably they try to negotiate first, so they both have an idea of what the other side is likely to submit.

by speckops on Feb 7, 2010 10:20 PM PST up reply actions

I think that’s happened once, The Marlins perhaps?

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by WalrusMan on Feb 8, 2010 8:25 AM PST up reply actions

On the one hand, the higher the number the team submits (and the lower the number the player submits) gives them a better chance of winning. On the other hand, it also moves the midpoint away from where they want, and gives them less leverage in negotiations. If you’re Timmy and you want to get $10.5M, and you submit $13M instead of $11M, sure, you give up some chance of winning, but you also gain $2M more if you do win. Why would the Giants guarantee you $10.5M if they can take a chance of winning and only paying $8M, when the punishment if they lose is only $.5M extra ($11M)? So it’s all a long negotiation process – the probability you win, the amount you get if you do win, and the midpoint are all important considerations when submitting your figure, and you have to weigh them all.

by Missing Barry on Feb 8, 2010 10:00 AM PST up reply actions

both sides submit blindly. the giants came up with their figure from a previous case. the record for a PITCHER as a first time eligible super two player was cole hamels, at roughly $4 million. the giants are simply doubling it for tim’s special circumstances.

by giantdonkey on Feb 7, 2010 11:57 AM PST reply actions

that makes more sense

I'm the B to the O, W-K-E-R and if I wasn't I'd be nailin balls off chevron cars

by TheBigLeBowker on Feb 7, 2010 12:00 PM PST up reply actions

perhaps the Giants’ read those rumors about the union asking Tim to submit a 23 million dollar bid. If they believed that Tim would ask for a number close to this, they probably believed they could win the case with an 8 million dollar bid. As it turns out, they have little chance of winning against the very fair number that TIm and his agent actually asked for.

No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you

by rxmeister on Feb 8, 2010 6:12 AM PST reply actions

As it turns out, they have little chance of winning against the very fair number that TIm and his agent actually asked for.

I’m not sure why you think they have little chance of winning?

by Missing Barry on Feb 8, 2010 10:00 AM PST up reply actions

I Am With Missing Barry Here

This is Timmy’s case and as such it is all one sided. The Giants have a case and I have outlined that case in multiple other FanPosts. The Giants also have a rebuttal to Timmy’s case above. That rebuttal is as follows:

Back in 1987 Super 2 did not exist and MLB was then giving players significant raises before players were even arbitration eligible. These three players for example made $650K, $1.5M, and $740K in 1987 even though the MLB minimum was just $62K and they were not arbitration eligible. This salary of more then an order of magnitude above the major league minimum is like MLB giving salaries in excess of $4M to the best pre arbitration players today. These figures were in essence their Super 2 Salaries and they ranked 165th, 21st, and 139th respectively among MLB’s highest payed players which thus puts the Giants offer of $8M ranking 106th in a much better light.

by giantsrainman on Feb 8, 2010 1:21 PM PST up reply actions

The relevance of the data that you are using is highly suspect. What happened in 1987 has no bearing on today’s market.

Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???

by oldrips on Feb 8, 2010 1:41 PM PST up reply actions

Less Then What Has Happened Recently To Players In His Service Class But Not None

And more then what has happened recently to players not within his service class like free agents and players with two years or less of arbitration left.

by giantsrainman on Feb 8, 2010 2:08 PM PST up reply actions

My take is I just see reasonable arguments for both sides so I find it questionable/strange when people assume one side has almost no chance of winning. I have no clue what’s going to happen, but it seems to me both sides have an actual case and thus a realistic shot at winning….

by Missing Barry on Feb 8, 2010 2:05 PM PST up reply actions

Which Is Exacly What I Have Been Laying Out

The reasonable arguments on both sides.

by giantsrainman on Feb 8, 2010 2:09 PM PST up reply actions

can someone explain to me why it is beneficial to low-ball Timmy when a figure of 9.5 to 10 million would’ve give the Giants a much better shot of winning the arb case?

It’s beneficial to the Giants to not piss off MLB and the Commissioner by being the first franchise to submit an eight-figure arbitration offer. Any precedent that benefits players just angers the other team owners and the Commissioner. Pretty clear math here.

by Every6thDay on Feb 8, 2010 9:29 AM PST reply actions

Jesus

Was it that bad a question? I really don’t know the inner workings of a teams’ responsibility to MLB or the commisioner regarding arb figures submitted. I was looking at it from a negotiation standpoint between the player and team. That is kinda why I prefaced the statement with “I don’t profess to know what the hell I’m talking about.”

I'm the B to the O, W-K-E-R and if I wasn't I'd be nailin balls off chevron cars

by TheBigLeBowker on Feb 8, 2010 9:45 AM PST up reply actions

which is why 6thDay gave you an answer…

by zuma420 on Feb 8, 2010 1:55 PM PST up reply actions

I guess it was the pretty clear math comment I didn’t pick up on

I'm the B to the O, W-K-E-R and if I wasn't I'd be nailin balls off chevron cars

by TheBigLeBowker on Feb 8, 2010 3:46 PM PST up reply actions

Seems like good reseach, but I’m afraid I’m going to have to ignore this post on the grounds of egregious overuse of the mega-dumb “Franchise” nickname.

by Evan on Feb 8, 2010 10:31 AM PST reply actions