Tims money
by kimo from kauai on Feb 10, 2010 6:24 PM PST
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With the arbitration hearing Friday. I will guess that if there is no settlement, the player will prevail. I don't think the Giants ever expected this to go all the way to a hearing and also expected the player to pick a more outrageous figure, Santana money for example.
The Giants should have picked a more defensible figure to offer Lincecum. I would have suggested a salary above the $10 million that Ryan Howard had been awarded previously in arbitration. Something like $10.750 million. Howards credentials included a MVP and RoY. Lincecums two Cy awards seemingly top those and should deserve more than the lower figure. Is there some conspiracy theory involved with the team offer as low as it is?
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Conspiracy? No.
Dumb player valuation? Probably.
Also, you can’t just compare Howard’s figure in 2008 to Tim’s now without some serious adjustments for what’s happened to the economy.
Juan Carlos Perez, please start hitting.
economy
I don’t think the general economy can be argued in arbitration. So I think that while the economy is relevant in Free Agency it may not matter in arbitration. I know you can not argue the clubs or the players finances.
by kimo from kauai on Feb 10, 2010 9:29 PM PST up reply actions
I’m not sure that Howard is the appropriate precedent here. Arbitration has generally awarded pitchers less money than hitters, so why would we assume a hitter is the best precedent for Lincecum? I think there are a number of reasonable arguments that $8M is a fair offer.
It is.
I accept.
"I don’t know why people feel the need to come up with reasons 'why' for everything..." - Missing Barry
by victor frankenstein on Feb 10, 2010 10:10 PM PST up reply actions
One of the major arguments will be special circumstances or special achievements and for third year players there are not that many who qualify as “special”, such as MVP or Cy Young winners so there will be some consideration of Howard and his award.
He may be the best precedent using this argument.
by kimo from kauai on Feb 10, 2010 11:39 PM PST up reply actions
But then again, like I said, pitchers have never been treated like hitters, so he may not be. $8M breaks the first time eligible pitcher record by quite a bit, if you look at just starters, Cole Hamels only got $4.35M last year, and that was the Super-2 record. I don’t know which argument they’ll favor, and I doubt anyone else does either, but there are arguments for both sides, and that’s the point.
by Missing Barry on Feb 11, 2010 8:52 AM PST up reply actions
concur
Somehow, I hope I am wrong and that there is an agreement before the hearing. Going arb again next season could poison the player/management relationship permanently. Do you think there was ever a time when the two sides could have gotten together on a contract? Or was Lincecum going to arbitration regardless?
I suspect this episode is another lesson for GM’s in handling roster days more carefully than Sabean did in 2007. This problem could have been postponed for a year.
by kimo from kauai on Feb 11, 2010 10:08 AM PST up reply actions
$37 million/3 vs $40 million/3 acc. to Shea
Actually he doesn’t say that Tim’s camp is also agreeing to the 3-year parameter offered by the Giants, but it seems understood.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/02/10/SP291BVJ96.DTL&feed=rss.giants
JUST A CITY BOY
ahem
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/02/10/SP291BVJ96.DTL&feed=rss.giants
JUST A CITY BOY
by shanghaijim on Feb 10, 2010 11:10 PM PST up reply actions
its says the 3 years go
’10-9.5 million ’11- 12.5 million ’12- 15 million
seems fair……..
i still believe this WILL get settled before an hearing on friday
by sadison bummedgarner on Feb 10, 2010 11:43 PM PST up reply actions
A fair offer & the sides sound pretty close. I’ll be glad we won’t have to go through this the next couple seasons.
The Giants Way™"If anybody deserves credit for this year’s turnaround it’s these two people, Brian and Bruce," Neukom said. "The encouraging thing is we think we’re back to playing baseball the way it ought to be played."
No. It’s a fine offer in terms of expected wins and 40% of market value for first-year arb players.
The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga
Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz
The Kids' CHONE WAR projection= 12.7
Current Team's CHONE WAR projection= 12.6
If Tim is willing to sign for 3/40
I’d do that yesterday. He’s going to make a lot more than that going forward, even with some regression – that’s a huge discount to what he’d make going to arb-to-arb. Assuming he wins his $13M case (and there’s no reason to believe he won’t), he will never make less than that as an arb player – which means his absolute floor is $39M. Its not like the Giants are going to non-tender him anyway.
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
and there’s no reason to believe he won’t
Why do people keep saying things like this? How is there no reason to believe he won’t? $8M is much more in line with the general 40-60-80 estimation we use with arbitration, it’s still a record for a first time eligible pitcher, it’s almost double what any other super-2 pitcher has ever gotten…stop making blanket statements like this. If you want to make the case that Timmy should win, fine, but when you say things like this, it just ignores the fact that there are reasonable arguments on the other side.
by Missing Barry on Feb 11, 2010 10:37 AM PST up reply actions
Do you understand the "special circumstances" clause?
Tim Lincecum in the only pitcher in history to have been named the Cy Young WInner in his 2nd and 3rd season. Per arbitration, you are thus allowed to compare yourself not only to your 2nd and 3rd year peers, but to the entire league. Ergo, Timmy’s fair comparison is Santana/Halladay/Carpenter.
I suggest you read up on the material before making asinine statements about comprehension; for Timmy to lose this arbitration, an arbitrator would have to (with a straight face) argue that Timmy at 10.51M (above the midpoint) is not a fair comparison to Santana/Halladay/Lackey/Burnett etc. And that arguement has as much credibility as Brian Sabean.
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
I don’t believe the special circumstances clause says what you think it says.
Link(s), please.
The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga
Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz
The Kids' CHONE WAR projection= 12.7
Current Team's CHONE WAR projection= 12.6
requested link
The arbitration panel shall, except for a Player with five or more years of Major League service, give particular attention, for comparative salary purposes, to
the contracts of Players with Major League service not exceeding one annual service group above the Player’s annual service group. This shall not limit the ability of a Player or his representative, because of special accomplishment, to argue the equal relevance of salaries of Players without regard to service, and the arbitration panel shall give whatever weight to such argument as is deemed appropriate.
http://mlbplayers.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf
page 18
by kimo from kauai on Feb 11, 2010 1:59 PM PST up reply actions
So I’m confirmed in my disbelief. Aadik is saying that the arbitrator must accept the comparison to Santana/Halladay/Lackey/Burnett when in fact “the arbitration panel shall give whatever weight to such argument as is deemed appropriate”, and therefore there is no guarantee.
for Timmy to lose this arbitration, an arbitrator would have to (with a straight face) argue that Timmy at 10.51M (above the midpoint) is not a fair comparison to Santana/Halladay/Lackey/Burnett etc.
And this is entirely conceivable and in fact reasonably likely. See Missing Barry’s comment below:
Ryan Howard had an MVP to his name and didn’t even get half of what someone like ARod makes, not much more than half of someone like Todd Helton’s average salary over his long term contract, not much more than half of the average salary for a guy like Soriano’s contract who’s never even sniffed the MVP, less than Miguel Cabrera was making that year as a cost controlled non-MVP, etc. The whole point is it’s just an argument, not a fact
The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga
Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz
The Kids' CHONE WAR projection= 12.7
Current Team's CHONE WAR projection= 12.6
I’ll clarify what doesn’t sound believable to me: the comparison to Santana, Halladay, Carpenter, Lackey, and Burnett as valid thanks to the “special circumstances clause”.
I don’t know the language of that clause, but in my reading of fangraphs here and here as well as my reading of discussion here on MCC, no one has mentioned any of these players as valid comparables in arbitration. By contrast, Roger Clemens, Ryan Howard, and Cole Hamels (ergo, arbitration cases) have been the only comps mentioned.
If this were a valid application of the special circumstances clause, I believe I would have read it well before now.
This doesn’t pass the smell test.
The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga
Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz
The Kids' CHONE WAR projection= 12.7
Current Team's CHONE WAR projection= 12.6
1- You need to find better comps than Lackey and Burnett, maybe even Santana
2- Calm the fuck down! All Missing Barry said is that blanket statements are stupid b/c both sides have arguments.
3- If the “special circumstances” clause allows you compare Tim to players like the ones you suggested then why did they submit for a salary that is 2 M less than their salaries for the coming up season
4- Ryan Howard probably also invoked the “special circumstances” clause and he still only asked for 10 M, much less than similarly talented first basemen.
My career path, have you seen it?
by say hey nation on Feb 11, 2010 12:10 PM PST up reply actions
The “Special circumstances” clause is still only an argument – certainly one Tim will use for his side, but by no means is it what you’re making it to be. Ryan Howard had an MVP to his name and didn’t even get half of what someone like ARod makes, not much more than half of someone like Todd Helton’s average salary over his long term contract, not much more than half of the average salary for a guy like Soriano’s contract who’s never even sniffed the MVP, less than Miguel Cabrera was making that year as a cost controlled non-MVP, etc. The whole point is it’s just an argument, not a fact, otherwise Tim’s $13M request seems absurdly small…..
Bottom line, both sides have legitimate arguments. You might think one side is stronger than the other, but you have to at least recognize there is another side.
by Missing Barry on Feb 11, 2010 1:06 PM PST up reply actions
He might make more going arb to arb...
…but the Giants are taking the risk if he gets hurt or regresses. Lincecum should have to give up something for having that risk taken away.
"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.
right Goofus
but the point is this. Assuming (again, as I do) that he should easily get his $13M for 2010, there is simply no way he gets less than that in 2011 and 2012. In fact, I’d venture to say that you can count the number of cases where an arb player got less with +1 years of service time on one hand. The GIants options in those years (if for example he get’s injured) are to tender him a contract, or not. Do you really think the Giants would let him walk away rather than “overpay” him for 1 year? I simply can’t see the scenario where that happens. So yes, the Giants are taking some risk, but form Lincecum’s perspective, $13M here is a defacto guarantee going forward.
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
Fastforward a day to the Lincecum signing: $13 mil assumption denied.
The Kids: Lewis, Posey, Sandoval, Bowker, Schierholtz, Frandsen, Ishikawa, Amezaga
Current Team: Rowand, Sanchez, DeRosa, Sandoval, Huff, Molina, Renteria, Schierholtz
The Kids' CHONE WAR projection= 12.7
Current Team's CHONE WAR projection= 12.6
From what’s being reported over at SFGate, I would imagine they’re going to work out a deal before tomorrow – the uncertainty over arbitration is something both sides would rather not have to deal with. They both submitted excellent figures, and I fully expect the Giants to pay him somewhere around 10M this season – which is a fair number and then backload the next two years. 3/40 is a good number to assume, with 10/15/15 giving Timmy the chance to buy PLENTY of Choco Tacos.
Heck - they could even spruce up the 3/37 contract with incentives which would make it above and beyond the 3/40 contract and Timmy could earn even more money. I’m a big fan of incentivizing all player contracts – pay for play!
Yeah, but you’re really only allowed to incent the quantity of play, not quality.
"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.
The 1st Yr Arbitration Value Of Tim Lincecum Now Vs Ryan Howard 2 Years Ago
Many here in the McCoven are demonstrating a failure to understand how arbitration works. The Giants don’t have to prove Tim Lincecum is $2M less valuable then Ryan Howand was two years ago, they just have to prove that $8M is closer to $10M then $13M is. This is obviously just fact and thus easy to do. The Giants argument is thus not limited to Tim Lincecum is less valuable then Ryan Howard was two years ago but also includes that they are of equal value.
Putting the shoe on the other foot, Tim Lincecum does not have to argue that he is $3M more valuable than Ryan Howard was two years ago either. What he does have to argue though is that he is at least more then $0.5M more valuable and thus his request of $13M is closer to his true 1st year arbitration value then the Giants offer of $8M is.
This is what is being decided. The arbitration panel has to decide if Tim is worth more or less then the midpoint of $10.5M. Thus if they decide his value is about equal or less then Ryan Howard’s was two years ago they will decide in the Giants favor. They have to decide that his value is greater then Ryan Howard’s was two years ago to decide in Lincecum’s favor.
When one understands this and the facts that both baseball in general and the arbitration process in particular have traditionally valued everyday players more then pitchers one can see that the Giants have a good shot at winning.
MVP voters disagree with the majority here in the McCoven that Lincecum’s Arbitration Team will be able to make the case that Lincecum is more valuable than Howard. The 3 Person Arbitration Panel is much more likely to think like the MVP voters that gave Ryan Howard a MVP Award and a total of 500 points in his two full years prior to arbitration but only awarded Tim Lincecum a mere 17 points in his two full years prior to arbitration. “Lincecum’s Arbitration Team” can argue sabermetric stats like WAR until they are blue in the face and they will be unlikely to overcome the impact of these MVP votes.
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