SB Nation Bay Area Editor's Pick
Guess Next Year's Top Prospects
by jcb9 on Dec 31, 2010 5:00 PM PST
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PrintLast year I came up with an idea for a Fanpost: predicting where the following season's Top 10 prospects would look. Well, we don't quite have our top ten list yet, but Chuckie Jones seems destined to win #8, and Ehire Adrianza and Jorge Bucardo are well ahead of the pack for the last two spots in the top ten, so I'm assuming they'll win. So, I figured it would be a good time to revisit last year's predictions and make our own for next year year.
First of all, nobody got more than 5 out of 10 - which isn't quite as bad as it sounds, since two of this year's draft picks will make the MCC Top 10. Everyone got Zack Wheeler, and almost everyone got Thomas Neal (a couple of people thought he would be in the Majors and ineligible by now). Beyond that, it was rough going.
The best, with 5/10 each, were Smotheredinhugs and henwo.
The LOL YOU award, with just 2/10, was won by tedfordfan and myself (my list: 1) Wheeler 2) Neal 3) Joseph 4) Rodriguez 5) Kieschnick 6) Sanchez 7) Matt Graham 8) First Round Pick 9) Nick Noonan 10) Jason Stoffel).
The Predicted We Would Take Gary Brown award goes to wilriv21, although he thought we'd take him in the second round, and predicted our first pick would be Stefan Sabol, who ended up going to the Braves in the 17th round.
The LOL POSEY award goes to Cody_ransom, who had him on his list at #2. Honorable mentions go to Grant and kennv who had him at #1. kennv also had Madison Bumgarner at #2.
NOBODY predicted Brandon Belt anywhere in the Top 10, let alone #1. NOBODY picked Charlie Culberson.
The Bucardo Brothers Award goes to Roger and Smotheredinhugs, the only two to have Jorge Bucardo in their top ten, at #9 and #10 respectively.
So, now it's time to make your predictions for next year's list. If you want to predict who we'll draft, feel free to include a name; otherwise, you can include a placeholder for (draft pick).
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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I'll give it a go to get things started
1) Zack Wheeler RHP (improves in the Cal League but doesn’t dominate)
2) Tommy Joseph C (breakout season, learns a little patience)
3) (First-round draft pick)
4) Chuckie Jones OF (very nice year, but not quite a breakout)
5) Thomas Neal OF (solid in the PCL, ends the year on the MLB bench)
6) Hector Sanchez C (finally starts to get noticed with a good year in the Cal League)
7) Gary Brown OF (doesn’t post good numbers, but folks still love his tools)
8) Eric Surkamp LHP (K rate diminishes in the Eastern League, but he holds his own in the high minors)
9) Heath Hembree (dominates, but doesn’t get higher in the rankings ‘cause he’s a reliever)
10) Francisco Peguero (struggles somewhat in the Eastern League, but edges into the top ten because people still love his tools)
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing, your next dominant reliever 1.47 ERA in S-K, with 34 K in 42 IP. Uh, just ignore his age and the walks, please!
Brandon Belt
is still a prospect.
# 24
by tinkerstoeverstochance on Dec 31, 2010 5:38 PM PST reply actions
I think he’s talking about predicting the 2012 prospect list, so Belt would most likely not be on that list.
Ok, I'll try (didn't think I'd get to 20 prospects, but here you go)
- Trevor Bauer, RHP (I think Fla-Giant had some good stuff on him, plus his windup reminds me of Lincecum) (*2011 Draft pick)
- Zack Wheeler, RHP (could be used as trade bait, if not, he’ll continue to be #1 or 2 on the list)
- Chuckie Jones, OF (Dingerz!)
- Mike Kickham, LHP (Fla-Giant likes him, so I like him. Doesn’t hurt he’s left handed)
- Thomas Neal, OF (I agree with jcb9. Also, Brown will beat Neal to the big leagues b/c of his speed and possible injury replacement for Torres)
- Heath Hembree, RHP (see Kickham)
- Jose Casilla, RHP (Cue crazy sink)
- Jarrett Parker, OF (The next Brandon Belt? I can wish can’t I)
- Francisco Peguero, OF (I really want to like him, but I think he’ll be exposed in AA)
- Hector Sanchez, C (Could be on verge of breakout if he hasn’t already)
- Roger Kieschnick, OF (Bounce back, and will be in AAA by the end of the year)
- Jorge Burcardo, RHP (How long can he last with that sinker?)
- Charlie Culberson, 2B (Will probably get a look in September)
- Ehire Adrianza, SS (Meh, too many mixed reviews, hopefully he figures it out)
- Eric Surkamp, LHP (Useful lefty I guess)
- Seth Rosin, RHP (see Kickham)
- Tommy Joseph, C/1B (Still waiting for breakout season)
- Kendry Flores, RHP (For the sake of getting 20 prospects)
- Jake Dunning, RHP (See Flores)
- Ryan Verdugo, LHP (Love the name)
Bauer looks good
Feed the Panda some bamboo
by anotherbadexcuseguitar on Dec 31, 2010 8:18 PM PST up reply actions
Jarrett Parker is too high for my tastes. I’ve heard he has a few holes in his swings that unless they’re fixed a la Belt (I’m not going to hold my breath) he might make it along fine but they will be exposed. Also his arm is below average from what I’ve read which probably wouldn’t play well in CF.
"He knocks a stake through the heart of the Cardinals! The Cardinals are dead! The Giants are going to the World Series!!!" -Jon Miller
t's Posey time!!
Screw you Flannery.
The only way we get Bauer at #28 is if he really stinks it up at UCLA in 2011. No, I think our #1 pick will either be a HS kid (most likely a pitcher) that falls due to an uneven senior season or questions about his signability, or a college guy that falls due to a spotty/crappy performance on the diamond in 2011.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Hmm, BA has him listed right now as 12th in the College Draft Prospect list. Figuring that the 1st round is typically about a 50/50 split of college and high school, and that this year’s high school class is pretty deep, that could put him around 24 or 25 on draft boards. I guess it’s not inconceivable that he fall to 29, though I agree that probably wouldn’t reflect all that well on his season.
BA’s also reporting today that it looks like Brian Goodwin is going to transfer to a JC so that he’s eligible for the 2011 draft.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
That's Reinier
He’s #9 on my list, below.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
A prediction of community rankings, not necessarily my own
1. Zach Wheeler- just staying healthy and not sucking should be enough
2. Gary Brown- Does everything Peguero does but better + more polished
3. Thomas Neal- Will repeat 09 SJ numbers in Fresno, easing his way into Burrell’s role starting September
4. Eric Surkamp- His great peripherals may not last to the bigs, but at least though Richmond
5. Brandon Crawford- solid Fresno numbers will keep the Tejada era short
6. Jarret Parker – Roger Kieshnick in 09 + more steals
7. Mike Kickham- Giants pitchers always seem to generate nice peripherals in the low minors, and people in the know seem to like him
8. Tommy Joseph- Cal league and raw ability will keep his numbers (and promise) above water
9. Chris Dominguez- for all his flaws had 57 XBH in Augusta, could stay flawed and still smack 30 HR
I still have high hopes for Adrianza and Buccardo, but their respective parks will work against them, and Chucky will have some bumps being 18 in A-ball
Peguero, Perez, and Culberson will get punched in the face at AA
oh, and
10.Wendell Fairly (of the 343 slg% in SJ) will be in AA just to make room in San Jose, but will have his breakout in Richmond of all places, going 275/400/450 going 30HBP-30SB while adding CF and RF back to his repertoire
Note the lack of a hyphen.
Anyone else think Dominguez is another Mark Reynolds? and is that necessarily a bad thing?
Gah, I totally forgot about JC Perez and Jose Flores, oh well.
He’s nowhere close to being Mark Reynolds.
Dominguez just OPS’d .782 in low-A ball as a 23 year old. At that age, Mark Reynolds hit for a .937 OPS in AA and then a .843 in the majors in 111 games.
Chris Dominguez is not good. If he’s in the top 10 after next season, then I hope he made it to Fresno, because otherwise our system will be in dire shape.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
Yes, but Dominguez runs much faster than Reynolds.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Dominguez is really a non-prospect. He’s way too old for his level and unless he starts at AA and is promoted to AAA this coming season I don’t see him as a prospect.
"He knocks a stake through the heart of the Cardinals! The Cardinals are dead! The Giants are going to the World Series!!!" -Jon Miller
t's Posey time!!
Screw you Flannery.
Hmm ok I'll try
1 – Zack Wheeler – he’ll be fine in San Jose
2 – Thomas Neal – I think he’ll do very well in Fresno, possible mid-year call up at the very least a September call up.
3 – Gary Brown – Lots of tools, if he can up his BB rate it’ll be that much better.
4 – Chuckie Jones – He will get better as he gets older, possible more power?
5 – Brandon Crawford – I think he’ll do fine in AAA, once he stops trying to hit dingerz he’ll have a better average + MLB ready glove.
6 – Francisco Peguero – Lots of tools but he will struggle in AA unless he doesn’t hack as much.
7 – Ehire Adrianza – He’ll make it to the majors if his glove is as good as advertised. He will struggle in AA
8 – Jose Casilla – Insert picture of crazy sink
9 – Jorge Bucardo – I expect him to do reasonably well in San Jose with a possible promotion to AA in the latter half of the season.
10 – Eric Surkamp – I expect he’ll start in AA this season and do very well.
"He knocks a stake through the heart of the Cardinals! The Cardinals are dead! The Giants are going to the World Series!!!" -Jon Miller
t's Posey time!!
Screw you Flannery.
I guess I have to play again....
Defense of the crown and all….
1 Gary Brown – He’ll start in San Jose. I could see him moving real fast.
2 Charlie Culberson – And the whole crowd laughed.
3 Thomas Neal – September call up.
4 Heath Hembree – This is too high if he stays in the reliever role.
5 Ryan Verdugo – Big move to starter pays off this year. Mechanics can get wonky, but the arm is live.
6 Chuckie Jones – This position assumes he’s sent to August to start the year.
7 Brandon Crawford – He’ll never hit for much average, but the bat has some value. Good glove.
8 Jason Stoffel – Probably too high for a closer in the giants organization, but I like the power arm
9 Tommy Joseph – This where the Mark Reynolds comp should made.
10 Jarrett Parker – This is my all-out flier. I don’t like his swing, but I hated Brandon Belts swing in college, and the Giants worked some magic on him. He’s to the re-toolers in the Giants system.
Surprise prospect – Jake Dunning
Surprise 40 man roster add – David Quinowski – your new LOOGY specialist
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
I think he profiles as a reliever. Hopefully I’m wrong.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jan 1, 2011 9:34 AM PST up reply actions
But you think he profiles as a reliever who will be considered inferior to Jason Stoffel within a year? Now that’s a fall from grace!
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
Not to mention Hembree and Quinowski.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Like I said...
Hembree assumes he’s converted to a starter. Quinowski is not rated higher than Wheeler on my list, I just see him having some success in Fresno. Wheeler is an interesting case. Generally, no matter how live a fastball is, until the player can throw it for strikes, I’m not going to get too excited. Plus I haven’t seen him pitch. I’ve seen most of these players in one form or another, with the exception of Hembree and Jones.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jan 2, 2011 8:42 AM PST up reply actions
That should be – Here’s to the re-toolers in the Giants system. New years toast fumbled due to new years hangover.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jan 1, 2011 9:36 AM PST up reply actions
YIKES!
After last year’s debacle, not sure I should be into the whole prediction thing, but here goes:
1. Zack Wheeler – moves up to high A & has a solid, healthy year
2. Gary Brown – makes debut in high A & hits .300
3. Ehire Adrinaza – Defense and bat both improve in AA
4. (2011 #1 Draft Pick)
5. Thomas Neal – has good season in AAA and looks like 2012 regular
6. Brandon Crawford – see Neal, Thomas above
7. Kendry Flores – break out season in Low A, leads SAL in FIP
8. Rafael Rodriguez – huge rebound season in Low A, healthy year, tools start showing up in production
9. Marvin Barios – absolutely dominates Rookie ball after moving state-side
10. Francisco Peguero – walk rate drops in AA, but other tools still show
Just missed: Connor Gillaspie (PCL helps bat), Thomas Joseph (Cal League helps bat), Roger Kieschnick (second go at AA goes well, healthy), Jose Casilla (reliever bias keeps out of top-10), Richard Hembree (same as Casilla), Hector Sanchez (loses weight, another steady performance), Charles Jones (struggles in low A but adjusts by end of the season)
Oh, and we’ll sign two Latin American prospects to 7-figure contracts this year.
Hector Sanchez: Underrated. Fighting body bias since the 2009 off season. I still love you, son, even if you're fat.
Oh, and we’ll sign two Latin American prospects to 7-figure contracts this year.
Sabes will save the money for the big-leaguers, besides he’s shown the last 2 summers that he believes the Caribbean market is vastly overvalued and over-mined.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
The last two years we had 7-figure offers on the table for major prospects (Wagner Mateo, Duanel Jones), but both times other factors intervened from us signing them. The year before that we spent $2.55 million on Rafael Rodriguez. I think this year we’ll splurge. It’s not like we haven’t had pretty good success in the Latin American market.
Hector Sanchez: Underrated. Fighting body bias since the 2009 off season. I still love you, son, even if you're fat.
I forgot about Jones, but we still have never handed out 2 seven-figure IFA contracts in the same year.
both times other factors intervened from us signing them.
You’re saying that the fact that the Cards signed Mateo to a FA contract in July 2009 for about $3M qualifies as “other factors”? Does that mean that other factors kept us from signing Carl Crawford and Cliff Lee in December? We have no idea how much the Giants were offerring Mateo in 2009 – or if they ever did offer him a contract. The subsequent “blind as a bat” monkeywrench did not materialize until September 2009 – when the Cards voided his contract. He subsequently was available to be signed by the Giants, but they couldn’t have been that interested since he ended up signing with AZ for only $500K.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I’m saying that, in the past two years, we offered Jones $1.5 million and (I thought it was reported that) we offered Mateo close to $3 million before his deteriorating eye condition was discovered (after which, the Giants weren’t interested). In any case, I don’t think Sabean is saving the money for the big league club or believes that the Latin American market isn’t worth entering as serious players.
And you’re right, we’ve never handed out 2 7-figure deals to Latin American prospects before. But this is a thread about prognostications.
Hector Sanchez: Underrated. Fighting body bias since the 2009 off season. I still love you, son, even if you're fat.
We haven’t had much success with big signs in the Latin American market, though. After setting records on Villalona and RafRod, I wouldn’t be surprised if someone in the front office is saying, we’d have more success if we spread the money around on academies and dozens of small signings combined with solid coaching. Personally, that would be my approach. The history of big signings in the Carribean isn’t particularly impressive and conversely the guys with the greatest careers (Vlad, Pedro etc) started as nickel signings.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
Yeah, I’m all for quantity over quality in the Caribbean until we get rid of the Zito contract, then we can be a bit more rambunctious.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Extreme volatility
I’ll go way out on a limb and predict a lot of movement/surprises in next year’s list:
1. Brandon Crawford - the bat reawakens in the PCL and he continues to improve on his OBP.
2. Thomas Neal - his bat in the PCL makes people forget his somewhat disappointing season in the EL.
3. Mike Kickham - continues the recent tradition of a dominating LHP in SJ. K/9 > 10, but BBs are too high.
4. Gary Brown - he goes on a hitting binge in the 2nd half for SJ – after a slow and uneven 1st half.
5. Zack Wheeler - continues to have high K-rate and GO/AO numbers, but wildness makse many lose faith in him.
6. Heath Hembree - ends up the season in Richmond. Everybody surprised when he finally issues his 1st pro BB.
7. 1st round pick – hopefully it’s Christian Lopes!
8. Chuckie Jones - has streaky season with the bat in Augusta. Power continues to shine, but K’s remain an issue.
9. Reinier Roibal - explodes onto the scene in SJ with a 4-pitch arsenal
10. Jake Dunning - surprising end of the season success as a starter in Augusta, after an uneven first 6 weeks.
11. Brandon Allen - surprisingly strong full-season debut in Augusta. Tenacity and cool demeanor remind many of Cain.
12. Caleb Hougesen - comes from out of nowhere to put up solid numbers in Augusta – plays great D at 3B.
Sleepers: Jacob Dunnington, Craig Westcott and Seth Rosin.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I’ve got to say, this is a list I WANT to believe in.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
—Rogers Hornsby
It’s very optimistic for many, but assumes major disappointments for favorites like Wheeler, Peguero, Adrianza, Bucardo, Parker, Culberson, Surkamp, and Casilla
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Although, in the end I suspect Wheeler will put together a uptick year. In fact, my guess would be Wheeler and Peguero both do. But the amount of koolaid it would take for Crawford to be our #1 prospect IMHO would be enough to drown a whale. Without any hyperbole whatsoever, I’d have to say that a farm system in which Crawford was the #1 prospect would have to be easily the worst in baseball.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
Yeah, well I’m not predicting it’s likely to happen, just trying to guess something that others won’t. If you had written the exact same sentence:
I’d have to say that a farm system in which Crawford was the #1 prospect would have to be easily the worst in baseball.
last year at this time:, but just substituted the name Belt for Crawford, I think that you wouldn’t have gotten a single word of dissent from anybody on this site. Yet, here we have almost unanimous consent that Belt is our #1 prospect this year – and not just because the entire system sucks.
In addition, due to our extreme want of legit candidates at SS in SF, I think it would only take an above-average offensive performance from Crawford in 2011 for him to be seen as a potential savior. If he were to hit something like .290/.380/.470 in Fresno, while playing his normal brand of well above-average defense and keeping his K-rate no more than 20% then most would rate him above all other prospects based on his manning a position of such need, a position of such premium defensive importance, and being so close to the major leagues. As I wrote previously, I don’t think such an offensive surge is likely, but I also think it’s not a pie-in-the-sky dream. He has all the physical tools to do it and he’s shown that he can put up much better numbers than that in the 2 other hitter’s leagues he has played in (CAL and AFL), albeit in much SSS.
Finally, John Sickels of minorleagueball.com just rated Grant Green as the #1 prospect in the A’s system. I don’t see Green being any better of a prospect than Crawford at this time, and I also don’t think that the A’s have easily the worst system in baseball.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I wouldn’t have written such a thing about Belt precisely because so little was known about him at that time. Quite a lot is known about Brandon Crawford at this point and I feel comfortable with the assessment. Grant Green is a) a pretty bad prospect; and b) a much better prospect than Crawford. Milwaukee at this point has not only the worst system in the game but one of the worst (at the top anyway) that I’ve seen in my prospect watching days. But Oakland’s is definitely bad and hurting. A lot of people here felt that last year was a generally dismal year for Giants’ prospects, but it was the summit of Mt. Olympus compared to the truly disastrous year that Oakland had in which almost literally every single thing that could have gone wrong with their farm system did. It’s not the worst because Milwaukee and Houston and possibly St. Louis exist, but it’s definitely in the conversation.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
It seems like if Crawford played well enough to be the #1 prospect in the system he’d just be promoted to the bigs.
WWRWD?
Over Tejada? C’mon, would Bochy stand for that? LOL
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I think he means that if Crawford had a 2010 to be the best prospect in the system he would’ve been promoted to start the season as the starting SS and we wouldn’t have signed Tejada (at least not to start).
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Oh
I thought that he meant that if Crawford played that well in Fresno this coming season then he would be called up to SF fairly quickly and no longer be prospect-eligible in 2012.
Either way it doesn’t matter, because my response was meant as a joke – not a serious rebuttal of what SF Pete wrote.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Doesn't mean he would start
I figure there is a good chance that at least Sanchez, Fontenot or Tejada gets injured this year (most likely Sanchez). Someone would have to take their place. I don’t even think it would require Crawford having a good year.
Crawford couldn’t possibly play well enough to become #1 prospect; that could only be achieved by Wheeler getting traded or actually having his arm detach from his body; Brown hitting .000/.000/-.222; the team failing to sign one of their first two draft picks; and other such disasters. And then on top of all those things Crawford would have to essentially become a whole different player than the one he’s been the last four years.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
My personal guess:
1. Wheeler
2. 2011 first-round draft pick
3. Brown
4. Neal
5. Crawford (step forward, MLB ready in 2012)
6. Kickham
7. Adrianza
8. Jones
9. Seth Rosin
10. Hector Sanchez
Sleepers:
Eric Surkamp. If he dominates AA (possibly AAA later in the year) despite his not-great stuff, I might start believing in him even more.
Thomas Joseph: Hoping for a breakout year with the bat and continued improvement behind the dish
Aaron King, please pitch better.
McC Wiki - for all you newcomers out there.
I’m assuming the Giants pick last in the June draft, so I can’t imagine anybody available at that slot that would end up as high as #2 on our lists. Unless our minor leaguers all tank next year, a possibility I am unwilling to even consider.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
—Rogers Hornsby
We draft #29 (out of 33 in the first round).
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing, your next dominant reliever 1.47 ERA in S-K, with 34 K in 42 IP. Uh, just ignore his age and the walks, please!
How is that possible? Who drafts #30?
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
—Rogers Hornsby
The Twins, Yankees, Rays, and Phillies all had better records than us, so they draft after we do. It’s 33 instead of 30 because there were a few 2010 first round picks who didn’t sign, so those teams (apparently the Diamondbacks, Padres, and Brewers) who didn’t sign, so they get comp picks.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing, your next dominant reliever 1.47 ERA in S-K, with 34 K in 42 IP. Uh, just ignore his age and the walks, please!
I ended up looking at this mock draft to check the draft order. It has us drafting a guy named B.A. Vollmouth. I don’t know anything about him, but that’s an epic name.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing, your next dominant reliever 1.47 ERA in S-K, with 34 K in 42 IP. Uh, just ignore his age and the walks, please!
of course, in previous years
They had us drafting Stetson Allie, Alex White, Kyle Skipworth, Casey Weathers, Nick Noonan, and Andrew Brackman. One out of six ain’t bad, I guess.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing, your next dominant reliever 1.47 ERA in S-K, with 34 K in 42 IP. Uh, just ignore his age and the walks, please!
We’re we predicted to draft some thirdbaseman named Longoria? We all made Eva Longoria/Desparate Housewives jokes. Yeah, I wonder what ever happened to him?
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
—Rogers Hornsby
"Weren't we..."
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
—Rogers Hornsby
Vollmuth is the 2011 version of Jedd Gyorko
( an all hit, no glove SS who won’t be a pro SS)
"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
by Gobroks on Jan 1, 2011 1:35 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
That would be a nice contrast to the all glove, no hit SSs in our system.
Hensley "Bam Bam" Meulens!
Better than you! Mejor que tú! Beter dan jij! 良い場合も! Mehor than abo!
"The trouble with baseball is that it is not played the year round." - Gaylord Perry
by GrahamCrakalaka on Jan 2, 2011 3:46 PM PST up reply actions
It's based on regular season winning %, I believe
IIRC the Twins are 30 (I could be wrong though)
"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
by Gobroks on Jan 1, 2011 12:58 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Yes, we had the 5th best regular season record in the majors, behind the Phillies, Rays, Yankees, and Twins. The Padres get screwed because they pick behind the Rangers in every round, although the Rangers made the playoffs and the Pads didn’t.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I made the same mistaken assumption a month ago.. However, MLB changed the rules in 2008 so the drarft order is exactly the reverse of the regular season record. The Giants will pick 5th from the end of each round, which is #28 in the first round due to the 3 comp picks assigned AZ, SD, and Milwuakee for their inability/refusal to sign their 1st rd. picks in 2010.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
1. Gary Brown
2. Zack Wheeler
3. Mike Kickham
4. #1 Draft Pick
5. Tommy Joseph
6. Brandon Crawford
7. Eric Surkamp
8. Ehire Adrianza
9. Francisco Peguero
10. Jorge Bucardo
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
I don’t think Thomas Neal will get a starting job next year, but I think he will get called up for injury related purposes and will spend enough time on the major league roster that he won’t be eligible.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
Even with Rowand, Schierholtz, DeRosa and Belt (freeing Huff to the outfield?) all in the mix?
co-dad w/AfDC of
Ishikawa, the Topps Rookie All Star Team's First baseman. Does he get a chance in 2010?
"Because I don’t know what it means anymore, in the PCL. It’s almost like years ago."
"That’s not to say Buster isn’t fully committed or all-in. He is. He’s smart and he’s got the advance reports. Anybody who said he’s not ready to catch in the big leagues is crazy because he’s a pretty good catcher, especially throwing." - Sabean 7/11/10
Whoa Chuckie Jones should probably be on there
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
Secure in the knowledge that I have no chance of being even remotely accurate, this becomes a pretty simple task:
1. Peguero
2. Jones
3. Brown
4. Wheeler
5. Shawon Dunston, Jr.
6. Dunning
7. Kickham
8. Ehire
9. Neal
10. Noonan
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
For just a second, I saw “2. Jones” and thought, “How can Roger not know that Duanel Jones didn’t end up in our organization!?”
I need to get more sleep, clearly. Duh.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing, your next dominant reliever 1.47 ERA in S-K, with 34 K in 42 IP. Uh, just ignore his age and the walks, please!
Oh, I forgot about Peguero
Though I still think he’s the #3 outfielder in our system at the absolute best.
Aaron King, please pitch better.
McC Wiki - for all you newcomers out there.
lol
I thought Shawon Dunston, Jr. was a joke at first, but the kid is a legit prospect. Guess we gotta make up for the VROOOM in the system, with Velez out.
Somebody mentioned this a while back. I’m kinda hoping we get him :).
"Today, it's as if McCovey's line drive finally went through. And the earthquake didn't happen. And Spiezio struck out. And Snow was safe."
Apparently he walks a decent amount
Father must be ashamed
Aaron King, please pitch better.
McC Wiki - for all you newcomers out there.
This might be even more insightful than our current round of community prospecting.
I’ll assume that Belt has spent most of 2011 in San Francisco, and that Neal is no longer eligible for this list because of all his September ABs. Otherwise, Neal is #1, and everybody else moves down one spot (sorry Caleb).
1. Zach Wheeler – the reasons everybody else stated. He has a solid year in San Jose, and shows just enough flashes of dominance to capture the #1 position here.
2. Mike Kickham – for much the same reasons as Wheeler.
3. Brandon Crawford – defense still shines, offense seems enough in AAA that he is the presumptive SS going into 2012 Spring Training.
4. Chuckie Jones – much like Wheeler, does everything we hope for and establishes his bona fides for the top 10. Only his level of competiton (A-) keeps him out of top 3.
5. Gary Brown – shows speed on basepaths & in OF, and patience at the plate, but surprisingly doesn’t impress with batting average. A middling result keeps him out of the top 4.
6. Roger Kieschnick – salvages his “potential” tag and bounces back nicely in AAA. Not as impressive as Neal, and so doesn’t get the Sept. call-up. Goes into ST in competition for OF slot, and does so well that Giants finally make that long-awaited Rowand trade, giving both Kieschnick and Neal roster spots starting out the 2012 season (Neal starts in LF; by August Kieschnick is starter in RF).
7. 2011 Draft pick
8. Seth Rosin – impresses with loads of potential; still has some rough spots to iron out.
9. Nick Noonan – also bounces back in AAA, but doesn’t have sufficiently monster season for Sabean to entrust 2B to him in 2012, so Sabean re-signs FSanchez to 2-year, $20 million deal. Sanchez spends most of 2012 on DL, Noonan gets most of the starts at 2B.
10. Caleb Hougesen – for the same reasons FlaGiant said.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
—Rogers Hornsby
Peguero, Perez, & Culberson all flail in Richmond. Heath Hembree does very well, doesn’t get any McCoven love. Giants’ 4th round pick (HS pitcher) surprises with nice outings in AZL, joins Salem Keizer for playoffs.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
—Rogers Hornsby
It would be pretty tough for Neal to get enough September PAs to be ineligible for this list. (And service time doesn’t count after September). You need 130 to lose eligibility – look at a guy like Aubrey Huff, who played in 157 games last year. He never exceeded 120 PA in a month.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
Plus why the heck would we be giving so many ABs to a September call-up in the middle of a pennant race!?
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
No doubt because of the monster .400 / .582 / .720 line he posted in Fresno.
Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing, your next dominant reliever 1.47 ERA in S-K, with 34 K in 42 IP. Uh, just ignore his age and the walks, please!
/Neal nailed to the bunch
/lol Bochy
Aaron King, please pitch better.
McC Wiki - for all you newcomers out there.
I don’t see anyway Sabean gives Sanchez a $20 million deal. He just gave Huff a two year $22 million deal and Huff was a much much more valuable player. I also expect Sanchez to miss time in 2011 on the DL.
Yeah, that was kinda the point. He shouldn’t give that kind of deal, but he’s so historically blinded to the possibilities of our minor league 2Bs that he reflexively give out too much $ to Freddie.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
—Rogers Hornsby
I'll try
1-Jarrett Parker-OF
2-Zack Wheeler-RHP
3-Mike Kickham-LHP
4-Tommy Joseph-C
5-Jason Esposito-3B (1st rd pick)
6-Jake Dunning-RHP
7-Ehire Adrianza-SS
8-Gary Brown-OF
9-Nick Noonan-2B
10-Shawon Dunston Jr (Supp 1st rd pick)
"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
by Gobroks on Jan 1, 2011 1:04 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Do you really think that Dunston will still be there when we pick somewhere around #45 overall?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Yeah
It’s a deep draft and he hasn’t stood out (yet) as a top prep bat
"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
by Gobroks on Jan 1, 2011 1:31 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I take that back
Looking at the Elias rankings, there are so many arb-tendered FA signings this offseason, and Uribe was ranked so far down the list of Type B free agents (only Varitek, Javier Vazquez, and Kerry Wood were ranked below him), that the Giants’ 1S pick is going to be in the mid-60s at best.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I must be looking at different numbers than you. It looks to me like they’re slot will be 57 at worst. Looks to me like there are 13 potential Type A FA who could change teams and then of the Type B I see a whole lot more than you listed who are ranked below Uribe (including Choate, Correia, Crain, Heilman, Hoffman, LaRoche, Olivo, Putz, Qualls, and Torrealba), while Vasquez is ranked above him and Wood wasn’t offered arbitration. In fact, looking at the list of people you put below Uribe, I have to wonder if you weren’t looking at the alphabetical Type B list without cross-checking the Elias ranking numbers (since Varitek, Vazquez and Wood are the only three listed alphabetically after Uribe).
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
LOL
You’re right. The problem was that I was looking at multiple lists from multiple sites and the first list was done by rating, while the last list I looked at was done in alphabetical order.
Upon further review, I believe that the Giants are guaranteed to get no better than the #47 pick right now (6 Type A’s + 8 Type B’s rated higher than Uribe have already switched teams and 33 + 14 = 47). By my count there are still 4 Type A’s (Balfour, Beltre, Pavano, and Soriano), and 2 Type B’s rated above Uribe (Gregg and Felipe Lopez) left to be signed. Of these 6 guys, I think it’s pretty obvious that at least 4 of them will switch teams (Balfour, Beltre, Soriano and Lopez). Therefore my final prediction is that the Giants will get pick #51, but certainly no worse that #53, in compensation for losing Uribe.
I’m not sure where you’re getting your 13 Type A’s from, I only count 10:
Balfour
Beltre
Crawford
Downs
Dunn
Cliff Lee
V. Martinez
Pavano
Soriano
Werth
There were potentially 4 more (De La Rosa, Francisco, Frasor, and Konerko), but they either accepted arbitration or re-signed with their old teams.
For the record, my 8 Type B’s rated above Uribe that have already switched teams are:
Benoit, Buck, Dotel, Feliciano, Garland, Hawpe, Hudson, and Javier Vazquez.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Yeah, I didn’t know offhand what the status was with De La Rosa, Francisco, and Frasor, so I just counted them as possibilities. Looks like the numbers you have here are right. I suppose Balfour could end up signing back, but I suspect that 53 is a likely number for our second pick.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
According to this, the Giants have overall pick #43.
They might be Giants...but they are definitely WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS.
"And what was once torture for an entire city became a magical ride into an Orange October."
So far, but as all the Type A & B FA offered arbitration get signed, their pick (tied to Uribe’s signing) will proceed to move down and down.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
Gotcha. Sorry, should have read the thread more closely. I thought you guys were talking about where the Giants currently stand with their comp pick.
They might be Giants...but they are definitely WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS.
"And what was once torture for an entire city became a magical ride into an Orange October."
That’s what we are talking about. A word of suggestion, don’t believe what you read on RiverAveBlues from now on. I don’t know anything about the site, but if that’s indicative of his work then he’s useless for anything besides gossip. He’s actually basing his list of 1st round supplemental picks on the chronological order in which the free agents signed their contract – what a maroon (figures he’s a Yankee fan).
I do give him credit for knowing to separate the Type A free agent comp picks above the Type B comp picks, but he’s apparently never heard anything about the Elias Ranking System that MLB uses to rank the free agents each offseason.
Each FA gets assigned a value number by Elias (based on a “secret” mathematical formula), and the team that loses a FA gets compensated with a 1S pick based on where their FA ranked with respect to all the other FAs that switched teams. The Type A’s also yield a 2nd comp pick in the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd rounds (possibly even later depending on how many other Type A free agents the team signs). Here’s the Elias number for the pertintent free agents right now:
91.81 Jayson Werth
91.799 Rafael Soriano
87.5 Cliff Lee
87.0 Victor Martinez
85.1 Carl Crawford
81.6 Adrian Beltre
76.3 Scott Downs
75.5 Carl Pavano
74.1 Adam Dunn
72.9 Grant Balfour
= = = = = = = = == Type B now begins
71.97 Javier Velazquez
71.95 Jon Garland
70.77 Brad Hawpe
70.24 Orlando Hudson
67.53 Felipe Lopez
67.41 John Buck
66.97 Kevin Gregg
66.88 J. Benoit
66.85 Pedro Feliciano
66.47 Octavio Dotel
65.608 Juan Uribe
I won’t go further, becuase the lower-ranked type B’s don’t affect where the Giants 1S pick will fall. You can see that there are 20 FA’s ranked above Uribe. However, 6 of the guys have yet to sign a new contract (Soriano, Beltre, Pavano, Balfour, Felipe Lopez, and Gregg) so the Giants currently have the 15th best pick in the 1S round – corresponding to the 48th overall pick (33 + 15 = 48). As each one of the remaining 6 guys gets signed by a team other than their existing employee then the Giants will move down 1 spot. If all 6 guys sign with a new team then they’ll have the number 54 overall pick (33 + 21 = 54).
You’ll notice that I was off by 1 in my OP prediction.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
He’s actually basing his list of 1st round supplemental picks on the chronological order in which the free agents signed their contract – what a maroon (figures he’s a Yankee fan).
WAT??!
/looks at the list again, chuckles
Thanks, Fla-Giant! I know how the supplemental round generally works but I took the list at face value. My bad, as you said, taking a pretty established blog “about the Yankees and its minor league teams” seriously.
They might be Giants...but they are definitely WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS.
"And what was once torture for an entire city became a magical ride into an Orange October."
Just to be clear, I wasn’t blaming you. His list looks logical at first glance. If I hadn’t just researched the Elias rankings a few hours before reading his post, I’m sure I would have been sucked in too.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Au contraire, I appreciate (as always) you pointing out mistakes like that. I’m glad someone was paying attention. :)
BTW, I just noticed that his list appears to be the one on Wikipedia as well.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Major_League_Baseball_Draft
They might be Giants...but they are definitely WORLD SERIES CHAMPIONS.
"And what was once torture for an entire city became a magical ride into an Orange October."
a moron...
…who can’t spell.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jan 4, 2011 6:34 AM PST up reply actions
You have to start watching more "Looney Tunes" cartoon re-runs
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
That calculation must be really wack...
…to value these player in this order. 2010 version of Vazquez, Hawpe and Lopez above Uribe? Stinky.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jan 4, 2011 6:33 AM PST up reply actions
I think Belt + Neal graduate
And here’s 11-20
11-Juan Carlos Perez-OF
12-Hector Sanchez-C
13-Jorge Bucardo-RHP
14-Noe Ramirez-RHP (2nd rd pick)
15-Francisco Peguero-OF
16-Brandon Crawford-SS
17-Jose Casilla-RHP
18-Eric Surkamp-LHP
19-Roger Kieschnick-OF
20-Brandon Allen-RHP
"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
by Gobroks on Jan 1, 2011 1:30 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
1. Belt – the team is smart and keeps him at AAA until a Sep callup.
2. Wheeler – that fastball does its thing, his breaking pitches improve.
3. draft pick – high-upside arm falls on bonus demands.
4. Brown – fails to embarrass with the bat. outside top 20 otherwise.
5. Neal – hits, but it’s the PCL and he’s a corner OF.
6. Roibal – why not? a fellow can dream.
7. Culberson – hits in the EL while McC voters forget his defense.
8. Casilla – finally throws enough innings to impress folks here.
9. draft pick – this is a thin system, there will be two in the top ten.
10. Crawford – still can’t hit, but PCL inflates as voters dream
the team is smart
I never thought I’d read those words from you. LOL
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
While there are a lot of things to like about the team’s top-to-bottom approach these days, that was a joke. The team has been telegraphing pretty strongly that Belt will be fit into the lineup in 2011. I think that’s dumb. But if the team does restrain its worst impulses and give him a full triple-A season, he’ll be #1. And it’ll be smart in the long term, where you a) want to maximize team control over Belt’s expected future production and b) want to minimize his adjustment period to major-league pitching.
by wcw on Jan 1, 2011 1:26 PM PST up reply actions
I’m curious about why you think it would be a bad idea to either (1) have Belt start the year as the 1B or (2) come up in, say, late May, and take over 1B. This latter would assume that he was hitting as well as we would expect.
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
—Rogers Hornsby
1) He’s not good enough yet. MLE 2010 was something like 350/410. The Giants would like more from 1B.
2) He’s probably not going to be substantially better in May.
3) He’s got a recently retooled swing, needs lots of PAs, and probably wouldn’t get them in the majors.
by wcw on Jan 2, 2011 9:22 PM PST up reply actions
His ZiPS projection
.266/.357/.440
"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
That could happen — I hope I’m being too restrained about Belt.
I am pretty sure an extra year in triple A won’t hurt him, either way.
by wcw on Jan 2, 2011 9:58 PM PST up reply actions
I’m not so sure using MLE’s as a valid prediction tool is ever “smart”.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jan 4, 2011 6:37 AM PST up reply actions
It gives you a rough look at how good he was last year in major-league terms.
Or did you think Belt would have a .400+ wOBA in the majors?
I just don't think it works well enough to make assumptions about...
…playing time and performance. I see the jump from the minors to majors as either a “can” or “can’t” make proposition. MLE assumes everyone can make it with progressively less effectiveness. It’s a fun tool, especially for the lower minors, but it has no eye and no way to measure a players ability to adjust. This is how MLE’s were higher last year for John Bowker than Buster Posey.
I don’t think your points about his development are off base. I’m inclined to think that he’ll start the year in Fresno, but my basis for that is I suspect the club wants him to get more innings playing the outfield. If he handles the field and hits, it’s just foolish to keep him off the roster, whether it’s May, June or the spring.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jan 5, 2011 7:27 AM PST up reply actions
I disagree, as long as we mean the same thing by “hits”. If he merely “hits” I want him to get a full year of triple-A. He hasn’t had a full year at any professional level. If he doesn’t need it, then it’s one season of development overkill, which can hardly hurt. If he does need it, dropping him into the show early very well might hurt.
Comparing a guy who was almost the overall #1 to a guy who was #100 overall is just silly.
by wcw on Jan 6, 2011 6:40 AM PST up reply actions
Hits = OPS of .850 plus.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jan 6, 2011 12:01 PM PST up reply actions
oh, my, do we disagree
A Fresno 850 is like a San Francisco 700. If Belt hits 850 in Fresno, I’ll be pretty disappointed.
by wcw on Jan 6, 2011 1:02 PM PST up reply actions
With Belt, Neal and Crawford all possibilities for call-ups at some point during the season, this could be a tough year to predict, but why not, here’s my wildly optimistic projections:
Wheeler
Brown
Neal
Peguero
Parker
Jones
Kickham
(first round pick)
Adrianza
Culberson
Casilla
Noonan
Bucardo
Joseph
Kieschnick
Chris Gloor: my lefty is bigger than your lefty
by crazedcrustacean on Jan 1, 2011 2:46 PM PST reply actions
1. Brandon Belt – Aubrey Huff and Pat Burrell and Cody Ross hit well enough to keep Belt in Fresno. Belt doesn’t force his way onto the roster with a good-not-ridiculous year in Fresno, but gets a September callup to give him a taste for a starting job in 2012.
2. 2011 1st round pick – 2011 is a deep draft class, and someone will fall to the Giants that deserves this spot
3. Zack Wheeler – Repeats strikeout/groundout/walk tendencies in San Jose, upside and half his stats push him to #3, mediocre ERA and WHIP keep him from rising higher
4. Thomas Neal – Back in a hitter-friendly league, has a .900+ OPS and earns September callup as he prepares to take over LF job in 2012.
5. Brandon Crawford – PCL inflates stats, looks better than he is, still not that bad as he walks enough and has some power to go along with the excellent glove. SS hole props him
6. Gary Brown – hits decently in San Jose with excellent defense and baserunning, plus decent walk rate. Unfortunately, suffers from low BA (as a result of high K rate) that makes his OBP/SLG look worse than they are. Has a better year in Richmond in 2012 which gets him to the majors in 2013.
7. Jorge Bucardo – groundball tendencies continue in SJ, making him one of the better starters in the league as his home run prevention plays very well in the Cal League. Lack of K’s aren’t a factor with the shiny ERA and solid walk rate.
8. Hector Sanchez – Move to Cal League increases power a bit, good defensive reports significantly help prospect status, maintains walk rate as he is one of the better all-around catchers in the Cal League.
9. Mike Kickham – SAL performance includes lots of walks and strikeouts, upside more than performance puts him in the top 10.
10. Jason Stoffel – Controls the ball better in the EL and drops his .400 BABIP leading to a midseason promotion to Fresno. Good numbers in limited PT once he hits AAA put him in San Francisco as a bullpen addition for the stretch run as Casilla’s walks balloon, LOB% normalizes and he gets shut down for the most part.
Falling from grace:
Francisco Peguero – Eaten up by EL as falling power numbers expose lack of walks.
Charlie Culberson – Bad defense would be tolerable if he hit, but doesn’t.
Ehire Adrianza – Hits decently in San Jose to start the season, which puts him in Richmond. What little bat he has dies in the EL, leading to worse numbers than Crawford in 2010 and being sent back down to SJ.
Chuckie Jones – Isn’t bad for an 18 year old in Augusta, but K’s so much the low BA mask a decent walk rate and ISO. Fla-Giant isn’t fazed (nor should he be) and continues promoting him, but to no avail.
On the rise:
Matt Graham – late-round “steal” proves he just needed some time with Tidrow to lower the walk rate and a larger body of work to normalize the BABIP and LOB%.
Dan Burkhart – lower BABIP puts BA around .300, good power and walk rate enable a .900 OPS in Augusta, and defense is decent if unspectacular.
Heath Hembree – Does better than Stoffel in San Jose, not well enough to make the top 10.
Alex Hinshaw – Just kidding
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
We have many of the same thoughts. However, I have to say that I doubt this part:
Hector Sanchez – Move to Cal League increases power a bit,
Not the power part, just the move to the Cal League part. I think the odds are very likely that Sanchez falls prey to the more glamourized prospect status of both Tommy Boy and Burkhart, and ends up repeating the Sally for most of 2011. The Giants want Joseph to justify his big money bonus, and Burkhart will prove that he’s just better than both him and Hector in ST, so I believe that Burkhart and Joseph split the C duties in SJ, and Hector gets to start full time in Augusta (with regular rests provided by Jeff Arnold).
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Holding back Sanchez after a fine season, while having the tenth-round pick jump to high-A after almost no pro experience? The Giants do some goofy things with their assignments, but that seems far-fetched.
We’ll see, I just have a feeling that Sanchez is going to be dissed. BTW, even though Burkhart has less pro experience, he’s had more experience calling games and caught more games than Sanchez has in the last 3 seasons.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
10th round pick vs. unheralded IFA
2.5 year starter at a major college program vs. the obscurity of 2 years in the DSL and 1 in the AZL
$90K signing bonus vs. $5K signing bonus (actually no record for Sanchez’s bonus, but it couldn’t have been much)
Sanchez couldn’t even get the majority of the starts at C in Augusta last year even though he’s clearly better than Joseph in all respects, offensively and defensively except for arm-strength and HRs.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I’m not sure the Giants will feel the same way. Sanchez has shown promise and that he’s ready for San Jose. Burkhart was a 2010 draftee, so it makes more sense to start him at a lower pro level than Sanchez, who has professional experience. As a 10th round pick, I wouldn’t think the Giants will be looking to promote him aggressively anyway.
Joseph is the guy I’m concerned about when it comes to taking Sanchez’s starts. I think Burkhart is lower than both of them on the totem pole, but Sanchez has production and Joseph has draft pedigree. But given that Sanchez is 21 to Joseph’s 19, I find it most likely that Joseph goes back to the SAL – especially since he didn’t produce well last year – and Sanchez plays in San Jose. Burkhart will be splitting time with one of them, but probably getting fewer starts, and most likely in Augusta, at least to start. If Burkhart hits well, he goes to SJ, if Joseph hits well, Burkhart goes to SJ to free up starts for Joseph and splits with Sanchez.
Of course, this is just the way I would do it because it makes sense; it doesn’t really have much bearing on how the Giants will actually play it. But Joseph’s age and mediocre SAL performance give Sanchez the promotion, and Sanchez’s decent production prevent Burkhart from taking his starts.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I agree that it should be Sanchez in SJ with Burkhart, and Joseph in Augusta with Arnold. I just have a feeling that Tommy Boy will win out over Hector based on the signing bonus and justification principle. As for not starting Burkhart in SJ because of the fact that he only got in a month of pro ball during his draft Summer, I don’t think that’s an issue. In recent years the Giants have started several advanced college draftees in SJ the spring after they were drafted who all had less pro experience than Burkhart:
Gillaspie, Kieschnick, Posey, and Crawford in 2009; and Belt in 2010.
I contend that Burkhart is more prepared to be a catcher in SJ right now than Posey was in 2009, and than Sanchez and Joseph will be in 2011. He is better at, and has more experience, handling a pitching staff and calling pitches than either of the 3 other catchers did/do. I have no doubt that he’s currently a better overall defensive catcher than Sanchez and Joseph, so the only thing that could hold him back is his bat. I think he’ll hit well enough in ST to earn the start in SJ.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
By the way, Fla, on the question of draft position we had the other day, here’s the numbers:
964 drafted players appeared in the majors last year, and lining them up by their draft rounds gives you an entirely predictable stair-step decline.
1st Rd. 238 (25%)
2nd Rd. 98 (10%)
3rd Rd. 78 (8%)
4th Rd. 69 (7%)
5h Rd. 56 (6%)
6th Rd. 37 (4%)
7th Rd. 42 (4%)
8th Rd 34 (4%)
9th Rd 19 (2%)
Rds. 10-19 produced 177 big leaguers which is just slightly less than rounds 5-9 (188) or nearly exactly the same as rounds 2 and 3.
Rds. 20-29: 64
Rds 30-39: 32
Rds: 40-49: 16
Rds: 50—59: 4
So, a huge drop from the 1st round to 2nd, then incremental steps down to 5, a plateau from 5-9, and then drops of about 50% in every 10 round group from then on.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
Thanks for that, Roger, but it doesn’t speak to what was being discussed. We were speaking only of high school draftees, not all draftees. Specifically, we were speaking to the fact that Chuckie Jones was being dismissed as a good prospect due to the fact that he was a 6th round draft pick – so the scouts didn’t think much of him just 6 months ago. I answered back that the record of scouts in terms of HS draft picks was not good, and added that being a HS draftee from the first 3 rounds was no great sign of future success. Especially in comparison to the HS kids that weren’t drafted in the first 3 rounds.
I’ve done some preliminary research on the matter, and here’s what I’ve found so far. The 2010 Giants had 22 players on their 25 man roster that played more than a handful of innings and that were eligible for the amateur draft when they graduated from high school (the others were ineligible to be drafted because they were international citizens). Of those 22, only 4 were drafted in the first 3 rounds:
Cain (1st), Bumgarner (1st), Affeldt (3rd), and Schierholtz (2nd).
7 of the 22 were drafted after the 3rd round, with the following breakdown:
4th = 1
21st = 1
30th = 1
40th = 1
43rd = 1
48th = 1
59th = 1
The remaining 11 players were undrafted out of high school and ended up being drafted after going to college. That doesn’t say much for the foreknowledge of scouts, but it is a SSS. I will be putting together the stats for all 30 teams from the 2010 season.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Before you go into more in depth research, I’d recommend looking up the studies done by Victor Wang, Sky Andrecheck, and Alex Pedicini on this topic – all looked at a pretty huge sample size, and all found a clear correlation between the round a player was drafted in and his eventual contribution in the majors. Including for high-school hitters.
Except that those guys did not include the fact that a player was drafted, or undrafted, out of high school and did not sign a contract until going to some form of college or amateur ball. It is my contention that an eligible HS player that wasn’t drafted out of HS, or that was drafted outside of the first 3 rounds is an argument against the wisdom of scouts and major league personnel divisions that has never been sufficiently accounted for in any study that I’ve ever seen.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I’m just not sure what the round that, for instance, Tim Lincecum was drafted in out of high school has to do with the discussion. Are you seriously suggesting it was a failure of scouting that he wasn’t taken in the top 10 picks at that time, (or for instance that Strasburg wasn’t drafted at all out of high school) rather than a positive reflection on the development that he was able to give his game with the help of his college coaching staff at WU?
By the way, Nate wasn’t drafted int he 2nd round out of HS, he was drafted out of JC. Chabot I believe.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
The contention was made that you have to give much more weight to players drafted in the first 2 to 3 rounds of the draft because the scouts and teams know more than others do. While I don’t dispute the fact that the scouts and teams know a hell of a lot more about these players than even well-read fans like you and me, I do dispute that this means that they put this knowledge to good advantage – specifically when drafting HS baseball players.
In order to show just how dismal their percentages are when drafting HS prospects, I contend that you have to include all of the HS players that they didn’t draft, or that they did draft but it was in such a late round that the players decided to go to college instead. Is the fact that Lincecum was drafted in the 48th round after his last HS season not pertinent? Is the fact that he also wasn’t drafted until the 42nd round, as a draft-eligible sophomore, 1 year before he was drafted #10 overall by the Giants also to be discounted? How is that not an indictment of scouting and team judgment? Should teams and scouts be given a mulligan by only counting Timmy as a success story for scouts because he was drafted #10 overall as a college junior? I say hell no. If scouts’ judgments are to be so revered, then how could any scout worth their weight miss the fact that Lincecum was going to be a superstar in June of 2005 (after his 2nd college season)? Lincecum is just 1 example, if the current trends that I’m finding hold true there are hundreds if not 10’s of hundreds of similar example of scouts failing to recognize the worth of HS baseball players over the past 20 years.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
In addition to this...
…a major part of scouting today, is not just what you (the scout) and your organization think about a player, but what other scouts (and their organizations) think about a player. Perhaps the Giants and the Cardinals (who were rumored to be taking Jones with the pick after the Giants) both knew that no one else had him higher than an 8th round pick. Maybe the general impression was he would demand too much money. There are many possibilities.
If you know he won’t be drafted in the first three rounds, why waist a top three draft pick on him? I’m not saying this was the scenario in this case, but trying to know what the rest of the league is thinking is very much apart of the process these days.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jan 7, 2011 9:00 PM PST up reply actions
I’m skeptical of this argument, since the pool of undrafted high schoolers who don’t develop into great prospects while in college—who, in fact, never even make a college team—is immeasurably larger than the pool of those who do.
Projecting young baseball players is a very difficult thing to do, and there are always going to be plenty of spectacular mistakes along the way. But MLB scouting departments are still going to be far better at it than anyone else on earth, I reckon.
The difference between all those guys and Burkhart is draft position though. Gillaspie, Kieschnick, Posey, and Crawford were all high picks (5th round or higher). Those guys justified aggressive promotion through their draft round, which Burkhart can’t claim. If the Giants like Burkhart that much – enough to promote him aggressively – I would imagine they’d throw someone in AA (probably Sanchez or Burkhart, not Joseph) since there’s no one there that needs PAs. Obviously whoever they pick won’t be ready for AA, but better to give the most advanced C a starting job than stunt the development of two players by having neither get enough playing time. On the other hand, maybe Johnny Monell gets that job (or goes to Fresno).
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Brown, Neal, Wheeler, Joseph, Rosin, Crawford, draft pick, Adrianza, Casilla, Hembree. And the consensus will still be wrong about Crawford vs. Adrianza.
Wait, which is the consensus?
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
—Rogers Hornsby
1. Zack Wheeler
2. Gary Brown
3. Thomas Neal
4. Dillon Maples (2011 draft pick)
5. Brandon Crawford
5. Chuckie Jones
6. Seth Rosin
7. Richard Hembree
8. Jarrett Parker
9. Jose Casilla
10. Ehire Adrianza
My hope is the Giants take the best available talent in the 2011 draft and don’t fall victim to the thinking that because the Giants system is devoid of talent at shortstop, they should draft someone like B.A. Vollmouth or Christian Lopes in the first round. Those guys would be better supplemental or 2nd round picks, especially considering they don’t project to stay at shortstop.
I agree that we should never draft a HS player based on need. It’s way too early to forecast what these current crop of HS seniors will do in the coming season. There will be huge moves up and down the board in the next 4 months, so I haven’t been closely following many HS kids yet.
That being said, I do see Lopes as likely being a BPA pick at #29 and doubt if he would still be there when we pick in the 50s with the Juan Uribe comp pick. I do see him being able to stay at SS – he has the range, hands, and feet to handle it in the vids I’ve seen of him. I only question his arm-strength. Even if he has to move to 3B or 2B, I think his bat will make him worth it. I love his swing and his strong hands.
A few other HS kids I have my eye on that I think may be available for us at some point in the early rounds are (in no particular order):
Robert Stephenson, RHP, Calif.
Kyle Crick, RHP, TX
Jake Hager, SS, Nev.
Eric Snyder, 2b/CF, Calif. (Lopes’s teammate)
Trent Gilbert, 2b, Calif.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Damn that Edison HS team must be loaded
With Lopes, Snyder and they also have Henry Owens who’s a good pitching prospect
"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
Yeah, they’re stacked, and even have another kid that many think will be drafted in the first 6 rounds (his name is escaping me right now). Btw, Owens is a great pitching prospect – very advanced command and control.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Yeah, I've heard Kershaw comps dropped on him
"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
whut?
If there’s one knock on Kershaw it’s that he needs to limit the walks.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Top 10
1. Zach Wheeler
2. Chuckie Jones
3. 1st round pick
4. Gary Brown
5. Thomas Neal
6. Francisco Peguero
7. Jorge Bucardo
8. Connor Gillaspie
9. Charlie Culberson
10. Seth Rosin
Proud Son of Tobias
1. Belt – I just can’t see how the Giants will be able to make room for him at the big league level. Barring injury, I see him as a September call-up.
2. Zack Wheeler – Pitches really well
3. Thomas Neal – Resurges against AAA pitching, posts hilarious Twitter updates
4. Gary Brown – Runs really fast
5. (2011 draft pick) Robert Stephenson – Because I know him and that would be cool
6. Chuckie Jones – Assuming he’s not someone Fla-Giant made up
7. Jorge Bucardo – Because, who else?
8. Charlie Culberson – Slows down next season, but still a solid season
9. Rafael Rodriguez – Gets off people’s lawns, puts up good numbers at a young age
10. Francisco Peguero – Fixes my sink
Hensley "Bam Bam" Meulens!
Better than you! Mejor que tú! Beter dan jij! 良い場合も! Mehor than abo!
"The trouble with baseball is that it is not played the year round." - Gaylord Perry
Oh
and if Belt gets called up, my 11th, who probably should be around 6th but I forgot, is Tommy Joseph.
Hensley "Bam Bam" Meulens!
Better than you! Mejor que tú! Beter dan jij! 良い場合も! Mehor than abo!
"The trouble with baseball is that it is not played the year round." - Gaylord Perry
by GrahamCrakalaka on Jan 2, 2011 4:03 PM PST up reply actions
If its any help, Thomas Neal thinks Clayton Tanner is underrated
TdaddyNeal
@GrahamL14: @TdaddyNeal besides yourself of course, who do you think the Giants top 5 prospects are? Whatever 5 u pick you can’t go wrong
TdaddyNeal
@GrahamL14: @TdaddyNeal Hahaha. Ok. Well is there anyone who you think is underrated? —> Clayton Tanner
Hensley "Bam Bam" Meulens!
Better than you! Mejor que tú! Beter dan jij! 良い場合も! Mehor than abo!
"The trouble with baseball is that it is not played the year round." - Gaylord Perry
(1) Edwin Escobar: Surprise!
(2) Zack Wheeler: as much of a sure thing as we have in this system
(3) Gary Brown: I have no idea how well he will hit but his tools will keep him around
(4) Rafael Rodriguez: with age on his side, an unexpected resurgence is around the corner
(5) Francisco Peguero: power continuing to go up; more walks will follow
(6) First round draft pick 2011
(7) Thomas Neal: solid but uninteresting year keeps him in the top 10
(8) Chuckie Jones: he’s young!
(9) Conor Gillaspie: I’ve always liked the hitting package, but obviously the defense is a massive concern
(10) Jose Casilla: my son continues to impress but being a reliever limits his prospect futures
Brandon Belt graduates.
Honorable mention to Jesus Galindo because he walked a ridiculous amount and had good speed, but pitchers with the ability to throw in the zone will likely eat him and his career .290 slugging.
I also like Kendry Flores to do well in the lower leagues.
Just to make sure, the Edwin Escobar pick is no joke. I like the guy. And hey, he’s younger than I.
My adopted son: Jose Casilla.
I'm sure that you now wish to immediately go and vote for him in the Community Prospect Lists.
I could see Escobar having a year similar to the one Wheeler had in the SAL
(ie Lots of K’s, Lots of BB’s-probably not as many GB’s)
"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
That’s the expected ‘positive’ trajectory, I suppose. Of course, that kind of production won’t move him up to #1 in the rankings.
Being 19 next season will help. I guess to vault all the way to the top he would have to end up in Richmond at the end of the season after absolutely dominating both the SAL and in San Jose. Not necessarily Bumgarner domination, but it does have to be eye-opening.
His strikeout levels are fine. He’d have to bring down the walk rates substantially.
It’s possible, but it’s not likely. But hey, I felt like shaking things up a bit.
My adopted son: Jose Casilla.
I'm sure that you now wish to immediately go and vote for him in the Community Prospect Lists.
Question
What is the best way to learn about prospects? I mean, for all you people who just pull out names I’ve never even heard as sleepers for next year. Where do you find them. Do you just use the internet and look at everyone’s numbers? Prospect handbook?
Hensley "Bam Bam" Meulens!
Better than you! Mejor que tú! Beter dan jij! 良い場合も! Mehor than abo!
"The trouble with baseball is that it is not played the year round." - Gaylord Perry
Read Baseball America, BP, Sickels etc
The day the BA prospect handbook comes to my house, is one of my favorite days
"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
How much is it?
Hensley "Bam Bam" Meulens!
Better than you! Mejor que tú! Beter dan jij! 良い場合も! Mehor than abo!
"The trouble with baseball is that it is not played the year round." - Gaylord Perry
by GrahamCrakalaka on Jan 2, 2011 9:32 PM PST up reply actions
The BA Handbook was about $33 before shipping, IIRC
"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
hmmm. I don’t know if I would read enough of it to make it worth it.
Hensley "Bam Bam" Meulens!
Better than you! Mejor que tú! Beter dan jij! 良い場合も! Mehor than abo!
"The trouble with baseball is that it is not played the year round." - Gaylord Perry
by GrahamCrakalaka on Jan 2, 2011 10:35 PM PST up reply actions
I only bought my first one (in 2005)
Because I recognized some names (Matt Cain, Jeremy Hermida) and I ended up living in that book.
"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
I have ten years worth sitting on my shelf. I still pull them down, just to what was said about (now) everyday players and 5th starters.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jan 3, 2011 8:19 AM PST up reply actions
The best way to learn about prospects is to go to games and see them in person, talk about the players with any coaches and scouts that will humor you. If you can’t do that then watch as many minor league, college, or high school games on TV. Finally, you should read everything that you can get your hands or eyeballs on.
The main thing though is to go to as many amateur games that you can get to in order to get an idea on what a good prospect actually looks like at the plate and in the field. Even the smallest metropolitan areas have JC teams, high school teams, and amatuer summer league teams that you can frequent. The best thing about them is that the vast majority of them are free.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I guess I'll take a stab
Based on a sprinkle of what I read around here and a dash of my hopes and dreams.
Belt is ineligible due to his being promoted after Ishikawa is traded/DFA’d. He splits time at 1B, getting approximately 300 PAs in the big leagues after getting around the same in Fresno.
1 – Wheeler
2 – Neal
3 – Brown
4 – 2011 draft pick
5 – Kickham
6 – Jones
7 – Bucardo
8 – Parker
9 – Adrianza
10 – Rosin
Hopefully I get lucky..
1 – Belt
2 – Wheeler
3 – Crawford
4 – Neal
5 – 1st Rd
6 – Ehire
7 – Jones
8 – Brown
9 – Culberson
10 – Noonan
Brandon Crawford: Your SF Giants 2011 Opening Day starting SS!
Shot in the dark
Being as these are such a crapshoot, I’m going bonkers on this and hoping I’m right.
Graduates: Brandon Belt, Steve Edlefsen
1. Zack Wheeler, RHP
2. Gary Brown, OF
3. Brandon Crawford, SS
4. Thomas Neal, LF
5. Eric Surkamp, SP
6. Jake Thompson, SP (acquired from TB for Ishikawa)
7. 1st rd pick (HS SP)
8. Nick Noonan, 2B
9. Chuckie Jones, OF
10. Francisco Peguero, CF
I project huge years from the top 5, specifically, Surkamp and Crawford to have huge years. Thompson is acquired in the spring from Tampa Bay, who will become desperate for a 1B. Nick Noonan has a huge year and vaults himself back into the top 10.
Adopted father of Eric Surkamp, the next great big-eared soft tossing lefty in SF Giants History!
A B- prospect according to Sickels for Travis Ishikawa? I seriously doubt that.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
Plus I don't think Thompson can be traded yet
IIRC he was drafted last year
"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
yeah, I shot high hoping desperation would set in. It is unlikely we would get such a good return. I decided to go out of the box.
Adopted father of Eric Surkamp, the next great big-eared soft tossing lefty in SF Giants History!
by Speedforthewin on Jan 4, 2011 6:45 PM PST up reply actions
I see the Rays getting Yonder Alonso from the Reds for a B pitching prospect close to the majors. Seems to fit.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I didn’t check his draft status out beforehand, but you are right, it couldn’t be him.
Adopted father of Eric Surkamp, the next great big-eared soft tossing lefty in SF Giants History!
by Speedforthewin on Jan 4, 2011 6:46 PM PST up reply actions
Reply fail?
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Before I become contaminated by reading everyone else’s predictions:
Wheeler
Brown
Ehire
Kirkham
Seth Rosin
Chuckie Jones
1st round pick (although if we win back to back WS, do they take that away bc we’re too awesome?)
Crawford
Belt (probably won’t be eligible, though, right? rookie of the year)
Neal (also won’t be eligible, up to cover for an injury mid-season)
Culberson
Lebron James?
If Neal’s up to cover for an injury, there are going to have to be multiple injuries/ineffective players. Burrell, DeRosa, and Rowand are probably all on the OF depth chart ahead of him, so two of those players would have to get hurt/hit like crap for Neal – who would have to post incredible numbers in Fresno as well – to show up, and even then, I’d imagine we’d move Huff to left and call up Belt instead.
Looking at it, you’d have to have something like five injuries/terrible stats considering we’ve got Burrell, DeRosa, Torres, Schierholtz, Rowand, Ross, and Huff who are all capable of playing the outfield.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
for Neal – who would have to post incredible numbers in Fresno as well – to show up
Though that’s not necessarily the history of Giants promotions recently. Bowker and Ishikawa were both brought up to SF for their major league debuts when they were barely hitting over .200 (Travis in AA), and Burriss’ debut came with him having posted about a .550 OPS in the PCL.
OT, if minorleaguesplits were still around I could get those numbers exactly. Man that was a great site!
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
I’d even venture to say that Belt is higher on the outfield depth chart than Neil.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jan 4, 2011 7:04 AM PST up reply actions
He is by proxy
If he comes up, it’ll either be to replace an injured Huff or to replace an injured/poorly performing outfielder with Huff moving to the OF. I doubt they put Belt in the outfield unless they absolutely have to, in which case we’d have live five players on the DL simultaneously, then maybe Belt LF Ishikawa 1B. But if that happens they’re probably out if it anyway.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Yeah, I'm on the opposite side of that opinion...
Huff has much more value (defensively) at first than the outfield. While Belt is most likely a better first baseman, I think the Giants would like to see what type of outfield he could play. If the team needs both bats in the lineup, I think they’d prefer to have 2 defensively neutral or minimally positive fielders than one negative (LF) and one positive (1B).
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jan 5, 2011 7:46 AM PST up reply actions
I think the Giants would like to see what type of outfield he could play...
…in Fresno. They know that Huff can handle LF without crapping himself, and while Belt is a better runner and therefore should be a decent LF, they really haven’t put him there much and from what I’ve heard, he doesn’t have the instincts for it yet. Belt 1B Huff LF probably yields one plus defender and one mediocre defender, while Belt LF Huff 1B yields two mediocre defenders (as I think that Huff is about as good in LF as he is at 1B).
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Of course in Fresno...
..but if he shows he can play and hits, not for long. On your later statement, I’ll have to beg to differ. I’ve mentioned before that I think Huff’s first career positive defensive WAR last year could be attributed to a career high in games played at 1B. 0 games played at 3B helped as well. But, the 20 or so games I saw Huff in LF last year didn’t impress me. I didn’t like his routes. Anyway, we’ll see what the organization thinks in a few months.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jan 6, 2011 6:27 AM PST up reply actions
1 – Zach Wheeler
2 – Tommy Joseph
3 – First Round Pick
4 – Gary Brown
5 – International Signing
6 – Thomas Neal
7 – Brandon Crawford
8 – Chucky Jones
9 – Jason Stoffel
10 – Supplemental Pick
Wheeler and Joseph have big years. Brown does well enough to stay high on the list due to his draft status and tools. Neal and Crawford have good years in Fresno but they are discounted since it’s Fresno. Jones holds his own and stays on the list because of his age and tools. Stoffel dominates and finishes the year in Fresno.
Even if Joseph had a bounce back year, he would not be a better prospect than Gary Brown because of the defense.
Meh
If he shows some ability to stay at C and hits like he can, he could very well be a better prospect. Brown’s much more likely to be a better prospect because he already has two ML-quality tools in his speed and defense, but Joseph has a higher ceiling considering the positional adjustment for C. But if he has to move to 1B it’d be hard to envision a scenario in which Joseph is a better prospect/player.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
1. Thomas Neal (a full year in AA will look similar to his 2010 second half—promotion to AAA in second half of 2011 with a shot to make the 2012 roster)
2. Zach Wheeler (AA by the end of the year or at the very least at the start of 2012)
3. Francisco Peguero (monster first half in high A—slight regression in second half in AA but overall year justifies this high of a ranking)
4. Ehire Adrianza (I think he jumps Crawford at some point on the prospect list and this year might be it)
5. Gary Brown (Vrooom—does it need more o’s?)
6. 2011 first round draft pick
7. Chuckie Jones (great pop but high K rate keeps him from going higher)
8. Culberson (only the glove keeps him from being higher)
9. Jose Casilla
10. Roger Kieschnick (bounce back healthy year in 2011 pulls his stock back up)
I am the adopted son of Willie...Willie McCovey.
My lolist last year was hurt by my not predicting Sabes and Boch would let Posey and Madison play, and I am tempted to fall for the same trick right now and put Belt #1. Instead:
1. Wheeler for his ceiling
2. Brown walks still troubling but puts up good numbers
3. Neal September call-up leaves him still eligible
4. Peguero speed doesn’t slump in the eastern league.
5.Crawford – people want a home grown short stop so badly
6. Ehire – people want a home grown short stop so badly
7. 1st Round Pick
8. Kickham my Matt Graham pick of the year for his fastball
9. Chuckie Jones
10. Surkamp is labeled the next Pucetas! Good for him?
I think Monell, Sanchez and Joseph will all have decent but flawed years, garner some support, but fall short of the top 10. 1st Round Pick is maybe a stretch at #7.
co-dad w/AfDC of
Ishikawa, the Topps Rookie All Star Team's First baseman. Does he get a chance in 2010?
"Because I don’t know what it means anymore, in the PCL. It’s almost like years ago."
"That’s not to say Buster isn’t fully committed or all-in. He is. He’s smart and he’s got the advance reports. Anybody who said he’s not ready to catch in the big leagues is crazy because he’s a pretty good catcher, especially throwing." - Sabean 7/11/10
My random shot in the dark
(1) Zack Wheeler: Continues to do his thing.
(2) Surkamp: Surprise. The lefty with the 4.5 K/BB dominates at AA and gets a promotion to AAA. Starts to work on changeup near the end of the season.
(3) Thomas Neal: Destroys the PCL.
(4) Crawford: His increased walk rate allows his power to return. Posts a ~850 OPS in the PCL.
(5) Jones: Rockets up the list with a mid-season promotion to AA.
(6) Peguero: Develops an iota of plate discipline as BB% cracks 5% for the first time.
(7) Gary Brown: tools keep him in this spot.
(8)
(9) Hembree: Posts an impressive all-around season in A ball.
(10) Culberson: Hits AA fantastically, but defensive woes continue to haunt him. Giants play him a handful of games in LF and 1B.
HM: Kickham: Dominates low and high-A before an injury derails his chances.
Oops...
#8: I initially penciled in their first round draft pick here.
Since I’m posting again, I might as well put in my preferred scenario:
#8: Sabean understands the concept of sunken costs, and trades Rowand mid-season, paying almost of all his salary in order to make room for Belt. Acquires a dominant 2B-prospect in return.
I’d probably drop Culberson off the list for his defensive woes, and plug in our draft pick @ #9, then.
How are we going to get Rowand off the books for a dominant 2B prospect, and more importantly, why would we want a dominant 2B prospect (as opposed to other positions)? We’ve already got Culberson, Noonan, and Bond, plus Gillaspie might have to move to 2B if his throwing errors continue, and Crawford or Adrianza could presumably play there if we somehow got a good SS. The last thing the Giants need right now is another middle infield prospect; let’s get some pitching, especially since we’re the kind of team that could pick up a mediocre pitching prospect in a realistic trade of Rowand and turn him into something valuable. Can’t really say the same of position players.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
re-read what I wrote. I didn’t say move Rowand "off the books." Good point about middle infield. I’ll take a pitcher in return, instead. Positional depth @ C or OF would be ok, too.
Ah, missed that bit
As for C, we’ve got Posey, followed up by Hector Sanchez, Joseph, and Dan Burkhart. OF features Neal, Peguero, Brown, Jones, Parker, Kieschnick, and technically Belt. Pitching, pitching, pitching.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I would be shocked if Jones gets to AA at 19
And even more shocked if that happened and he wasn’t a top 3 prospect
Note the lack of a hyphen.
He’d be 18, wouldn’t he?
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
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