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MLB's Hot Stove program - What are these guys smoking?


Last night I was watching the MLB Channel's Hot Stove program.....yes, I know that was my first mistake......and they had a panel of Harold Reynolds, Mitch Williams & Ken Rosenthal listing the top 5 teams in baseball. Of the 3 panelists, only Reynolds listed the Giants in the Top 5 at #3. The other 2 guys did not have them on the list at all. Are you serious?

Hello, McFly........didn't the Giants just win the World Series? Wouldn't that imply that they should at least be on the list? I've really got to stop watching these East Coast biased media bullshit.

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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Mitch Williams....

made a good point. In 1993, when he was with the Phillies, they needed career years from almost their entire lineup to make it to the World Series. Then they were never able to make it back because they could not replicate their 1993 performance. I Think the Giants have better long term pieces than the 1993 Phillies did, but I do see the similarities.

by Dead Rebel on Dec 23, 2010 6:19 PM PST reply actions  

How many 2010 Giants had career years though? I think Andres Torres was the only one. That’s just an excuse to pick the same big budget teams they pick every year.

Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees because he wants to win the World Series. Wait, what???

by rxmeister on Dec 23, 2010 6:42 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

Huff and burrell. Buster maybe. Brian wilson.

My Adopted Giant
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.

by GiantPain on Dec 23, 2010 7:05 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

They said lineup, so Wilson’s not included. Posey is a rookie, and the other two did NOT have the best years of their careers. You may expect them to go down because of their age, but that wasn’t the issue raised here.

Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees because he wants to win the World Series. Wait, what???

by rxmeister on Dec 23, 2010 7:40 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

Aubrey had his best year ever by WAR and by wRC+

How is that not the best year of his career?

My Adopted Giant
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.

by GiantPain on Dec 23, 2010 9:39 PM PST up reply actions  

Most of that career high WAR...

Was due to his first positive defensive WAR (1.5) ever. Offensively, it was pretty close, but more of a top three and primarily due to an improved walk rate.

Taking a positive outlook on these improvements – his walk rate bump doesn’t seem like an anomaly, it’s an area that power hitters his age an position in the batting order will often show improvement. Hopefully the career high in defensive WAR is due to a career highs in games played at first (100) and career lows of games played (0) at 3rd.

5.9 WAR may remain his career high, but assuming he’s limited to playing LF and 1B, I can see him performing at a 4.5 to 5.0 WAR level the next 2 years.

"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean

by Smotheredinhugs on Dec 24, 2010 8:26 AM PST up reply actions  

Huff maybe, but he also had near equal years overall in 2002 and 2008, and a better year in 2003. I don’t thnk it’s likely he will be as strong in 2011.

Wilson had roughly the same season as 2009. with the exception of his ERA+, which I suppose is pretty important for a closer. His WHIP was slightly lower and his H/9 and HR/9 were nearly indentical to 2009. His SO/9 were up slightly as well, but not significantly.

You might be right about PTB though.

I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Where is Dan Burkhart going to play ?

by nvsfg on Dec 23, 2010 7:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Burrell had a notch ahead of his career averages.

by BustaTheRippa on Dec 23, 2010 9:33 PM PST up reply actions  

You say that as fact… This guy begs to differ that it’s not possible.

by BustaTheRippa on Dec 23, 2010 9:43 PM PST up reply actions  

Pat was terrible as a Ray and great as a Giant. He won’t be starting the year with the Giants as an american league DH. I don’t think it matters with Pat anyway, because if he isn’t as good as last year, he’s going to be watching Brandon Belt.

Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees because he wants to win the World Series. Wait, what???

by rxmeister on Dec 24, 2010 7:01 AM PST up reply actions  

I realize that we all got used to Bumgarner and Posey

But immediate allstary-ness is not the norm for callups. Even highly touted ones.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Dec 25, 2010 9:09 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't have a problem with what they said

But to say the “hangover effect” and not have the Giants on there but still have the Rangers seems flawed. Wouldn’t they have some “hangover effect” by being AL champs?

Still the father of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by SFGuy on Dec 23, 2010 7:30 PM PST reply actions  

Vlads 115 ribeyes too assuming he departs. Don’t think Colby Lewis will duplicate those numbers either. CJ Wilson is one of my favorite non-Giants too, but I dont see him winning 15 games next year…Hope he does, but unlikely

by m34josh on Dec 24, 2010 2:37 AM PST up reply actions  

I like CJ as well for a non-Giant. I am concerned that his workload this past year could come back to haunt him. He had never pitched more than 73 innings in a year. He has pitched 493 MLB innings in his five year career (including postseason) and 2010 accounted for 228 of those.

I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Where is Dan Burkhart going to play ?

by nvsfg on Dec 24, 2010 9:25 AM PST up reply actions  

Oh wow…and here I was worrying about our guys being overworked…

"Today, it's as if McCovey's line drive finally went through. And the earthquake didn't happen. And Spiezio struck out. And Snow was safe."

by Ceora on Dec 24, 2010 3:44 PM PST up reply actions  

The '10 Rangers remind me of the '08 Brewers

Get a l33t pitcher before the July deadline, get into the playoffs.
And then the next year, the pitcher is lost and the rotation consists of something sort of resembling an ace and a load of marginal starters and swingmen. Doesn’t matter how much Hamilton can rake if the pitching staff is walking about 80 guys an inning.

by morineko on Dec 24, 2010 9:47 PM PST up reply actions  

If they truly believe that pitching is so important, than the giants should be rated in the top few teams.

Torres had a career year only because it was the first full year of his career.
He seems to be playing at or about his talent level. I expect, if healthy,
Bumgarner will get better. The national league west has become loaded
with pitching. We need someone to seriously fix Zito.

by bradleybear on Dec 23, 2010 8:52 PM PST reply actions  

what's wrong with Zito other than his contract?

He isn’t the greatest pitcher in the world but the Giants rotation is far improved now that Bumgarner is in it and Zito isn’t expected to be the 4th best starter on the staff.

by morineko on Dec 24, 2010 9:50 PM PST up reply actions  

seriously

Zito’s contract is terrible, but having a league average starter as your 5th (as in 5th best, since apparently this was a point of contention before) starter is a luxury maybe 2 other teams in baseball have

Sharlon Schoop - honkbalspeler extraordinaire.
Trolls are like cockroach Nazis. Sure, you CAN try to reason with them, but they won't listen, and if you respond to them, they invade your Sudetenland.
Or something.
That metaphor got away from me.

by Viliphied on Dec 26, 2010 3:26 AM PST up reply actions  

Williams is kinda full of shit in my opinion

Out of all those up there, Reynolds is the only one who’s opinion I truly value.

by russian.tank on Dec 23, 2010 9:29 PM PST reply actions  

They got a couple guys who seem to know what they're talking about

Personally I like John Hart. The Rangers senior advisor. That guy’s an MLB exec and former manager/general manager, he knows how to evaluate players and rosters. Oh and by the way, he’s one of the few on there who actually picked the Giants to make the playoffs before the season. Also like to hear what Leiter has to say about pitchers. But Williams definitely bugs me, he needs to stop twitching his neck back every time he’s trying to be semi-sarcastic or blunt about something

Brandon!
Belted deep to right-center field!

by Vaccaro on Dec 24, 2010 1:26 AM PST via mobile up reply actions  

Hugs!

"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks

by Gobroks on Dec 24, 2010 10:03 AM PST up reply actions  

Haha!

Rec’d!

"They are an awesome group to have on my side. And on Sundays I always feel a little bad for the other quarterback, but not too bad."-Ben Roethlisberger on the Steeler's Defense-

by Mini Hulk on Dec 23, 2010 10:00 PM PST up reply actions  

Realtive to ESPN, though

It’s freaking Mensa.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Dec 24, 2010 12:59 AM PST up reply actions  

Whats ESPN? I thought that network was deleted from my directv guide from April thru early November

by m34josh on Dec 24, 2010 2:39 AM PST up reply actions  

Eastern Sports Promotion Network

or, Entirely Steinbrenner Promotion Network. Either way you want to think of it.

Irrelevant to any real baseball fans.

by toofruss on Dec 25, 2010 3:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Exactly

There is nothing wrong with watching MLBNetwork when the alternative is ESPN.

Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond, Brian Anderson.
Jeremy Affeldt induces strained obliques

by Giant among Angels on Dec 24, 2010 9:27 AM PST up reply actions  

these are the same idiots, along with espn, fox, si, etc...

who picked the braves

who picked the phillies

who picked the rangers

WORLD CHAMPS BABY!!

Trade Sabean...

by Regulus on Dec 23, 2010 10:10 PM PST reply actions  

Almost nobody picked the Braves, but don’t let the facts get in the way.

Making calculations based upon statiscal histori-garbage rather than situation reality since 1980
Adopted Giant: Kaohi Downing, your next dominant reliever 1.47 ERA in S-K, with 34 K in 42 IP. Uh, just ignore his age and the walks, please!

by jcb9 on Dec 24, 2010 8:16 AM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, people need to stop saying that. The Giants were the better team going into that series and it’s not incredible that they won it.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Dec 24, 2010 1:27 PM PST up reply actions  

The Braves pitching is almost as good as SF.

by toofruss on Dec 25, 2010 3:36 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah

The Braves’ starters were almost as good as SF (LOL not really), the Braves’ offense was almost as good as SF, and the Braves bullpen was probably about as good as SF, maybe better. So the Braves were almost as good as SF. Why is it surprising that the better team won?

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Dec 26, 2010 12:02 AM PST up reply actions  

Best team in the NL West. One of the better teams assembled for the playoffs. And that’s all that matters.

Proud father of Barry Zito. As long as he keeps throwing strikes, that is.

by MonkeyChow on Dec 24, 2010 12:08 AM PST reply actions  

It's for the best

We should be thankful that they — be it the MLB network or ESPN or whatever the source — leaves the Giants off any top team list or downplays their chances for next season. The Giants are at their best when others tell them they’re not as good as the Phillies, Red Sox, etc. The worst thing that can happen to them is for someone to say, they’re the team to beat. Please, underestimate them. Pooh pooh their lineup or 5th starter or whatever the flaw is. That only gives them more motivation next year to prove 2010 wasn’t a fluke.

by crazy crab on Dec 24, 2010 12:24 AM PST reply actions  

crazy crab isn’t so crazy.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
—Rogers Hornsby

by Lyle on Dec 24, 2010 8:14 AM PST up reply actions  

This Crab speaks the truth.

I'm a Giants Fan, but I'll always be rooting for Matt Downs
Where is Dan Burkhart going to play ?

by nvsfg on Dec 24, 2010 9:28 AM PST up reply actions  

If you discount the World Series it's moot

If you look at the positives we have a full season of Posey and Bumgarner, which by themselves account for a few wins. Apart from Posey we aren’t much improved offensively.

Torres had a breakout and above average season as someone has already pointed out, but let’s not forget the last two months of the season and the playoffs. Even before the appendectomy he began running out of magic beans in the early weeks of August. Whether it was just a coincidental slump coupled with the appendix we’ll never know. I expect him to be above average as far as his career numbers but probably not to the level he played at April through July last season. His defense is always a plus.

I feel like Aubrey could put up similar numbers with only a slight regression, most notably in his homerun total. Burrell is more of an anomally for me. He was just so incredibly bad with Tampa I worry he got a new lease on life when he came to SF and it masked some of his deficiencies. But he was so good with the Giants we know what he is capable of. As long as he doesn’t treat this season as a victory lap I only see a slight regression.

Then there is always the Pablo Dillema. It goes without saying that 2009 Pablo significantly bolsters the offense. The major improvement to the lineup rests on whether he settles in somewhere close to his 2009 numbers. It’s not like we need a dramatic improvement with the pitching staff we have, but a Pablo resurgence really puts the Giants in the driver’s seat in the NL West and somewhere close to the Phillies.

I guess what I’m trying to say is that I would’ve had the Giants at number six or seven based solely on offseason improvements and projected stats alone. But there is a lot to be said for a full season of Posey and MadBum and Pablo settling somewhere between his 2009/2010 line. Also, TGWT2010WS.

by JSing on Dec 24, 2010 12:34 AM PST via mobile reply actions  

Won't help much from Fresno.

Unless you think he’ll unseat Huff, Ross, or Burrell.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Dec 24, 2010 1:00 AM PST up reply actions  

He’ll be the 1B starter by the All Star break, if not right out of Spring Training.

"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
—Rogers Hornsby

by Lyle on Dec 24, 2010 8:15 AM PST up reply actions  

It seems like mid-year callups are more the FO’s style.

2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller

by Johnny Disaster on Dec 24, 2010 8:57 AM PST up reply actions  

Hopefully this time Super 2 and damage to the 2011 squad can both be avoided.

Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.

by dregarx on Dec 31, 2010 8:28 AM PST up reply actions  

The saddest part is two of them had the Brewers as the #4 in baseball this year. This is a team that won 77 games last year. They were pretty bad. Even if Zach Greinke and Shaun Marcum have great years and net them 10.0 additional WAR (unlikely), they might not even make the playoffs. How can this team possibly be considered one of the elite teams in baseball as a result of two significant but not Earth shattering trades?

The Giants are going to win 95 games next year, mark my words. The Phillies may win 97, and the Red Sox may win 100, but the Giants will still do well. Meanwhile the Dodgers will win 83 games, the Rangers will win 87 games, and the Brewers will win 84 games.

by EricW on Dec 24, 2010 12:39 AM PST reply actions  

Dude

The Brewers are gonna win more than 84. A motivated and possibly rejuvenated Greinke combined with Yovani Gallardo having a big down year. We know he’s capable of being an ace and the stuff is already there. Marcum could be among the best #3 starters in the national league, he’ll benefit switching leagues from the AL East. And although it’s possible Wolf may never be back to the pitcher he was just a couple of years ago, it’s foolish to completely expect him to put up his 2010 numbers again. Even Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun had relatively pedestrian numbers compared to their careers and potential. Bottom line, they have a strong young rotation and a strong young lineup in a winnable if not underwhelming division. That means wins brother. They’ll be much improved from 77. I still don’t put them in the top 5 though, they have a lot to prove before I place them in that company.

Brandon!
Belted deep to right-center field!

by Vaccaro on Dec 24, 2010 1:12 AM PST via mobile up reply actions  

What? The NL Central isn’t going to be a powerhouse?
\removes monocle

2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller

by Johnny Disaster on Dec 24, 2010 8:59 AM PST up reply actions  

they did get career years out of hart and weeks. with gallardo, he will probably perform better next year but he has been very hittable in his career (22% line drive rate) so I’m not sure that .340 BABIP was really that far off. marcum never posted an xFIP under 3.9. and who knows what they will get out of Greinke.

for me there are just too many question marks to call them one of the elite teams in the league (i know you agree here).

what really bothered me about the show though is how the rays were not in a single top 5. arguably they were the best team in baseball last year. yes they lost crawford, pena, and some bullpen arms but they are adding hellickson, jennings, johnson, and have so much pitching depth that they really don’t have to worry too much about their bullpen. granted knock them down but give them some respect.

by zeisenbe on Dec 24, 2010 10:18 PM PST up reply actions  

Hart and Weeks performed about how they have in the past for extended periods, just over full seasons. I don’t think many people would consider Greinke a “question mark.” Ditto whether Marcum will be ok moving to the NL. Calling Gallardo “very hittable” is quote worthy though.

Their big question mark is whether they have a really bad SS. They also might change backup catcher.

by JetSam on Dec 25, 2010 7:58 AM PST up reply actions  

Hart had a career year, maintaining career highs in BABIP and HR/FB over entire seasons. He was worth 3.4 WAR last year yet was worth less than 2 WAR the previous 2 seasons combined. The truth is he doesn’t walk enough, he strikes out too much, he’s a bad fielder, and I’m not buying that he can maintain those obscene power numbers. He is due for some regression.

Weeks also had a career year good for 6.1 WAR (never above 3.1 prior). This was accomplished partially because this was the first year in his career he was healthy for an entire season, partially because he played very good, and partially because he was lucky with a career highs in BABIP (despite a 15.4% LD rate) and HR/FB. Given that it is unlikely he will be as healthy or lucky next year he is probably due for some regression.

When I said Gallardo was hittable, I don’t think it was in the context you insinuated, I was just saying he was a player that can sustain a high BABIP. If you read the previous comment Vacarro said that Gallardo had a down year and could be expected to perform much better next year. While I do expect him to perform better next year I’m not sure he will be the elite pitcher many expect him to be; the reasons being his high BABIP last year was not a product of luck but was due to the fact that when hitters put the ball in play against him they hit it hard. He also gave up almost half as many hrs as the year before, this can be expected to rise.

Marcum is in my estimation an overrated player. As I stated before, he never posted an xFIP under 3.9 and he’s been around long enough to get a pretty good idea of what kind of player he is. You can expect him to perform a little better (peripherally) given that he is moving to the NL but he is a FB pitcher moving into a good park for HRs. I would be surprised if his ERA will be significantly under 4 next year.

With Greinke I have no idea which pitcher is going to show up, the one with a 9.5 k/9 2 years ago or the one with a much more pedestrian 7.5 from last year; probably one somewhere in the middle. And while this is still a very nice pitcher, he is far from the elite pitcher they would need to make them one of the best teams in the league.

While the Brewers are no doubt better than they were last year and are probably the favorites in the NL central, I’m not sure they are as good as some think. While Braun and Fielder will likely perform better next year I think this will be offset by Weeks and Hart regressing to their true talent level. Adding Greinke and Marcum definitely helps their pitching staff but I don’t think it catapults them into a top 5 team.

by zeisenbe on Dec 25, 2010 3:03 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m not so sure much you post about Weeks and Hart contradicts much that I wrote. I don’t think they performed unusually other than full seasons. Your faith in the mucky, stringer collected data is much greater than mine. The abundant conclusions you draw are all yours too.

At least you’re standing by your statement that he is a very hittable pitcher.

by JetSam on Dec 25, 2010 8:45 PM PST up reply actions  

I thought you were saying Hart and Weeks are likely to continue because they had shown the ability to play at that level before. If this is the case, read the next paragraph, otherwise please ignore it.

The truth is Hart and Weeks had career years, regression is almost inevitable. Anybody can play well if the sample size you require is small enough, so to say they’ve played this well before for stretches is not a very strong argument for why they can sustain it in the future. Both players have been around long enough we can determine roughly what they should contribute next year.

I don’t know what you mean by the data I use and the conclusions I draw are mine; I know they are that’s why I wrote them. If you have reasons why you believe contrary to them maybe you could explain.

by zeisenbe on Dec 26, 2010 12:07 AM PST up reply actions  

The truth is that Hart and Weeks performed at a level that isn’t unusual for them. If you want to assume based on advanced statistical analysis that Weeks will injure himself, you can do that. The idea that they fit a generalization, therefore they will likely follow the generalization is more about wishing than analysis. The idea that you’ve divined their “true talent” by looking at their Fangraphs page is kind of silly.

Data like line drive rates is clownishly crude. Its too tedious to go through your long list of absolute conclusions based on little data and questionable premises.

I give you credit though in putting your views forward: Hart’s easy swing and long HRs is really a mirage, Weeks will likely have a significant injury, Gallardo is a “very hittable” pitcher and a nugget like Greinke is a nice pitcher, but based on his pattern of K/9 is “far from elite.”

by JetSam on Dec 26, 2010 7:36 AM PST up reply actions  

Sorry, but I don’t buy your “truth”; Hart and Weeks definitely performed at levels unusual for them. The only evidence needed is they never did it before. While they may have genuinely improved, I think it’s hard to sell that they will both repeat what they did last year.

Should we not consider the very likely possibility that weeks will injure himself? If I signed Rich Harden I wouldn’t do so with the expectation that I would get 33 starts from him on his A game; I would factor in the probability that he would get injured and also the probability that he doesn’t perform at his top form for the entire season.

And it’s impossible to determine a players “true talent” from statistics for two reasons: 1) because statistics are imperfect and 2) their level of talent is always changing. But once we do get enough data we can make educated guesses as to what their talent level and worth might be; that’s what I’ve been doing, no divination required.

A yearly line drive rate is not the greatest metric in the world to determine a players ability to hit, but a career line drive rate can show a measurable skill, to make hard contact. Some players (sustainably) do have higher line drive rates than others and this is highly correlated with their overall BABIP.

To say that my conclusions are based on little data and questionable premises is ridiculous coming from a person who offers no data of their own and whos views appear to be completely based on personal assumptions.

You can take my words out of context all you want, but it doesn’t make your point any more valid. Hart hit as many hrs last year as the two years before. This doesn’t mean he will revert back to 12 he hit a year prior, but I’d wager a bet he won’t hit 30 again. Bill James projections are generally fairly optimistic, he says Hart will hit 24; this regression seems reasonable. To assume Weeks will not play 160 games again next season is not absurd, nor is it absurd to say his BABIP and HR/FB rates are due for a little regression. My Gallardo claim might be the hardest to justify but if you believe there is a difference between command vs control, it is not unfathomable to believe he will sustain a high BABIP next year. Greinke is a very nice pitcher, in fact he is possibly my favorite pitcher, but do I think he will turn a 77 win team into one of the top 5 in baseball? No I do not. Nor am I going to bank on the fact that he will return to his 2009 form.

We can never know everything for sure, we can only make guesses based on statistical analysis and probability. Is it possible that the Brewers will have a top 5 team, that all the players discussed will have careeer years/continue having career years, yes; but probably they won’t.

by zeisenbe on Dec 30, 2010 12:31 AM PST up reply actions  

Whatever you do, don’t claim that Hart is a terrible fielder ;)

Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.

by dregarx on Dec 31, 2010 8:31 AM PST up reply actions  

LOL at Athletics Nation. Contraction!

by JetSam on Jan 1, 2011 8:54 AM PST up reply actions  

Excellent

since Weeks and Hart both performed as they have before for extended periods, I accept your agreement. Comparing Harden to Weeks is some solid reasoning.

Gosh, claiming the mantle of educated guesses as support for the ditzy claim of divining true talent. I wonder if you even have a notion of how line drive rates are compiled. How about what a line drive is? Have at it. Your tirade is loaded with assumptions and the same use of data as prosecution argument rather than analysis.

by JetSam on Jan 1, 2011 8:52 AM PST up reply actions  

What is your definition of “extended periods”; a week, a month, an arbitrary amount of time that fits your argument?

Honestly, I don’t even know what kind of point you are trying to make. It seems your responses have the sole purpose of being condescending while offering nothing of substance. Do you think the Brewers are a top 5 team, do you think they will win the division, do you think they will be over .500, do you thinks Weeks and Hart will repeat their last seasons, do you think that Greinke will return to form, what evidence do you have to support claims? The answers to these questions are things myself and other posters might actually be interested in hearing because they could potentially contribute something to the general pool of knowledge. But as it is you contribute nothing and your answers are not half as clever as you think they are.

by zeisenbe on Jan 1, 2011 2:25 PM PST up reply actions  

I give you credit for putting those predictions out there.

by JetSam on Dec 24, 2010 8:00 AM PST up reply actions  

84 games may just be enough to win the NL Central

have you seen this division? The Brewers last year scored the 4th most runs in the NL (behind the Reds, indeed—but recall the Giants scored less runs than the Rockies and won the division anyway.) What killed them was that their pitchers gave up the 3rd most runs in the NL. (The Giants gave up the 2nd least—and that is how World Champions are made.)

All Greinke and Marcum have to do is outpitch the ‘09 versions of David Bush and Randy Wolf. Wolf and Chris Narveson really improved their games after the All-Star break, at least. (I think a lot of that with Narveson was getting over that 130-pitch outing; don’t get me started on Ken Macha’s SP management, I hope Roenicke doesn’t pull that)
Yuniesky Betancourt is probably an offensive improvement over Alcides Escobar and if Carlos Gomez sucks Chris Dickerson and Brandon Boggs should be able to replace him.

Yes, I’m a Brewers fan. I’ll be honest about lurking here since ‘07 and only registering because Wellemeyer was starting on a day I was at home and I wanted to hang out in the game thread (yes, I know he’s awful, but I couldn’t allow myself to post on a Cards board when he played there.)

by morineko on Dec 24, 2010 10:06 PM PST up reply actions  

Brewers will probably win the Central

Pirates and Astros aren’t anywhere near good enough, Reds don’t pitch, Cardinals rely too heavily on five players (Carpenter, Wainwright, Garcia, Holliday, Pujols) which makes them risky. The Central is the worst division in baseball, and the Brewers are a good team, so they will probably take it.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Dec 25, 2010 2:57 PM PST up reply actions  

Fangraphs has the Reds rotation as the best in the division. Yeah I didn’t get it either.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Dec 26, 2010 4:24 PM PST up reply actions  

lolwhut

Fangraphs has the Reds as the #4 rotation by WAR last year, with the Cardinals, Cubs, and Astros ahead of them in that order. And the Brewers and Pirates were the third worst and worst rotation in the majors last year respectively. Boy that pitching is awful.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Dec 26, 2010 4:53 PM PST up reply actions  

In a recent weekly chat, Dave Cameron said he expected the Reds with Chapman to have the best rotation in the upcoming season.

go rowand

by lincypoo i wuv u on Dec 26, 2010 10:52 PM PST up reply actions  

That's not entirely fair

Dave Cameron is not Fangraphs, he’s a writer for Fangraphs. Dave Cameron is U.S.S. Mariner. And while he’s probably right if we’re talking potential (Volquez and Cueto are both high-upside pitchers, and Arroyo isn’t bad, plus Chapman is the best starter in that division if he can make the transition), the Cardinals have too much great history on their side. I guess I can see where he’s coming from, but Volquez and Cueto are too unreliable to call the Reds the best rotation in the Central.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Dec 27, 2010 12:43 AM PST up reply actions  

I think he basically said

The Brewers/Cards are more top heavy but the Reds depth makes them the best.

Or something to that effect

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I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
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by Gobroks on Dec 29, 2010 4:16 PM PST up reply actions  

Who owns Fangraphs? Great history affects this year’s rotation how?

by JetSam on Jan 1, 2011 8:56 AM PST up reply actions  

David Appelman owns Fangraphs

And history is undeniably the best tool to predict the future, history being stats and scouting reports, since those are part of it. It affects the rotation by placing members in it (if Carpenter didn’t have a history of being a ML-quality starting pitcher, the Cardinals probably wouldn’t have him in their rotation, same with Garcia and Wainwright and Westbrook), and by ranking those members (if Wainwright didn’t have a better history than Westbrook, he would be behind Westbrook in the rotation’s order).

More to the point, it affects the ranking of clubs – since that’s what we’re talking about, not the rotation itself – by rotation since that’s the best way to determine how good each team’s rotation is. I suppose you could do it by upside, or by picking team names out of a hat, or by consulting the spirits, but it’s unlikely any of those methods would prove superior to a statistical (i.e. historical, as that’s what stats are) analysis. That’s why stats are used more and more; they work better than other methods. The spirits might occasionally pull one over on the stats, but by and large a statistical approach will prove more accurate. And statistics tell us that Carpenter, Wainwright, and Garcia have been far more successful than Arroyo, Volquez, and Cueto, and therefore ought to continue being more successful. That may not happen, but I’d say it’s more likely than the opposite.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Jan 1, 2011 7:50 PM PST up reply actions  

In general, the experts WERE right about one thing

The old cliche about not wanting to face a team with a great rotation in the playoffs certainly held true. How many times did you hear someone say “if the Giants get in, nobody is going to want to face them?” However, what amazed me was how many “experts” picked the Giants for fourth or dead last this past season. A lot of them wrote for NY papers, like Joel Sherman, who also predicted that Bruce Bochy would be the first manager fired in 2010. I’ve yet to hear one of them admit how wrong they were. They just hope that people forget and continue to think of them as knowing what the hell they’re talking about.

Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees because he wants to win the World Series. Wait, what???

by rxmeister on Dec 24, 2010 7:06 AM PST reply actions  

When writers say good things about Bochy, they’re considered cretins around here. Criticizing them for not liking the guy seems contradictory.

by JetSam on Dec 24, 2010 8:04 AM PST up reply actions  

I’m not criticizing the guy for not liking Bochy. Sherman predicted that he’d be the first manager fired, and that turned out to be just a little off base, made even more ridiculous by the fact that he had just received an extension.

Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees because he wants to win the World Series. Wait, what???

by rxmeister on Dec 24, 2010 11:21 AM PST up reply actions  

It was at the start of the season! When one writes an article predicting the outcome of a season amongst the whole MLB, they are sure to be wrong on numerous things.

by theimmortalbenard on Dec 24, 2010 2:15 PM PST up reply actions  

I had my serious doubts about the Giants last year

I was re-watching a few of the early season games yesterday. The starting pitching 1-4 and to a lesser extent the bullpen were never the question with the team at the start of the season—the problem was the offense. I’m sure everyone around here realizes that the Giants that won the World Series were NOT the team that left Arizona.

Opening day lineup (positional C-RF): Molina, Huff, Uribe, Sandoval, Renteria, DeRosa, Rowand, Bowker
Game 162 lineup: Posey, Huff, Sanchez, Sandoval, Uribe, Burrell, Torres, Guillen (which was, in fact, the most common 2010 Giants lineup, featured in 9 games)

The later-season pickups made a difference. The callup of Buster Posey made a significant difference. Freddy Sanchez coming off the DL made a difference. (DeRosa getting hurt straight away made a difference….)

by morineko on Dec 24, 2010 10:16 PM PST up reply actions  

I don't agree too often with Rosenthal...

but his primary concern is the affect of the extra innings on the starting staff during the postseason. It’s legitimate. It’s an unknown. It’s nothing we haven’t heard before and it possibly discounts the offensive improvement the team made in the second half (Posey, Ross & Burrell), but it’s a reason. To me – the real key is how the Rockies perform for the whole year. Both teams should be in the running for the Wildcard, but winning the west will be the chore.

"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean

by Smotheredinhugs on Dec 24, 2010 8:41 AM PST reply actions  

This is very true.

Dearest, Susan - The Patron Saint of Patience

by Lars The Wanderer on Dec 24, 2010 9:00 AM PST up reply actions  

what about the idea that other teams might get up a little when they play the WS champs?

is this going to account for a few extra losses in 2011? i think it would have an effect in football but not sure about MLB…

by repeat_in_2011 on Dec 24, 2010 9:57 AM PST reply actions  

I know I get half a chubby when the Giants are playing.

2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller

by Johnny Disaster on Dec 24, 2010 10:26 AM PST up reply actions  

I get a whole chubby whenever I remember the San Francisco Giants won the 2010 World Series.

by baetown415 on Dec 24, 2010 7:52 PM PST up reply actions  

All the predictions are for the casual fan. They need to have some debate or else its a boring “television show”

The Red Sox and Phillies both made very big moves in free agency, therefore they are certain to be in the top 5 and should be in my opinion.

The Yankees have the biggest fan base and the biggest payroll, therefore they are included. That only leaves 2 spots.

Its not unreasonable for someone to say that the Cardinals should improve with Carpenter, Wainright, Pujols, and Holliday.

The Braves have a good rotation and picked up Uggla in the offseason.

The Rangers were a pretty good ball club last year before they got Lee and still have some money to spend.

The Brewers got two really good young pitchers to help an offense that has Fielder, Braun, and Weeks.

While I would put the Giants in the top 5 it’s not that unreasonable. Given that they don’t have a very good offense and made no “splash” in free agency

by theimmortalbenard on Dec 24, 2010 2:28 PM PST reply actions  

They don't have a very good offense

They have a good offense, though, and the pitching is among the best in baseball. At WORST, we’re the third-best rotation in the majors, second best bullpen, probably 10th in the majors offensively, and one of the best defensive teams. The Giants are a top five team.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Dec 25, 2010 2:53 PM PST up reply actions  

I’m not sure any of them put the braves top 5 and I know only one of the 3 panelists placed the yanks in their top 5. I could see how one could expect st louis to improve but at the same time I think its a miracle anytime carpenter stays healthy for a whole season.

by zeisenbe on Dec 24, 2010 10:23 PM PST reply actions  

IMO

1. Phillies
2. Red Sox
3. Rays
4. Giants
5. Braves

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Dec 25, 2010 2:59 PM PST reply actions  

Rays are a tough call right now. They still have a lot of depth in their rotation (though it remains to be seen if Garza will be there in April), of course, depth doesn’t help quite as much when you insist on giving starts to James Shields. Their bullpen has undergone massive FA depletion, and of course they’re hoping that Jennings gives them something remotely Crawford-esque and that Dan Johnson and somebody can be a quality option at 1B. There’s still a lot of talent there, but third best in baseball strikes me as a little high.

MY DAD WAS WRONG!

by Roger on Dec 25, 2010 3:25 PM PST up reply actions  

Maybe

I should have added “assuming they trade a starter for a 1B bat”. They’d be a good match with the Reds having Yonder Alonso blocked and needing starting pitching.

But I have a lot of faith in Andrew Friedman to rebuild that ‘pen, and the Bartlett trade was a great deal for Tampa which accomplishes a lot of that task already. Their starting pitching depth is huge too; there are few, probably zero teams that can replace a great starter lost to injury, and the depth and balance of their offense and overall youth offers further protection. If the Red Sox lose a starter, Wakefield is starting. If the Phillies lose one, they’re still great, but not #1. If the Giants lose a starter, they’re shit out of luck. Same goes on the offensive side; Zobrist the Super-Utility Hydra is huge, and while Jennings won’t replace Crawford, he’ll come close. Upton hasn’t produced for two years, so anything they get there is gravy. Pena was decent last year, but not irreplaceable. Sean Rodriguez and Reid Brignac provide a couple solid MI players, and a full year of John Jaso will be good.

But if Hellickson shows up and dominates like he can, their rotation just got that much better, or if Upton starts to hit again, or if Zobrist puts up some power numbers, or if Johnson proves a solid 1B option, or if Jennings is better than we thought, etc. the Rays are just as good as the team that won the toughest division in baseball last year. The only reason they’re not #1 (because while the Phillies won one more game, they did play in an easier division and an easier league) is because of the significant improvements Boston and Philly made.

It’s probably an aggressive ranking, and the Rays could do some more to improve themselves to justify it a little more, but at this point I can’t really claim anyone else to be better. The Rangers beat up a weak AL West and lost Cliff Lee, the Angels will be getting Morales back but their rotation is weak and injury-prone and their offense is aging and just not all that nice.

The Twins are a good sleeper pick and having a full season of Morneau will be good, but I don’t trust their rotation (Baker and Slowey are just good, and Pavano is looming on the edge of hurt and bad) or their lack of offensive depth; I’m just not sure they’re going to get much out of 2B/SS/CF/RF, and with the question marks of Young and Valencia manning LF/3B those spots aren’t exactly set in stone either. They got three wins or more out of only five players last year; the Diamondbacks did that on the offensive side alone. And they play in a weak AL Central. Still, they’re probably #6 or #7 just because they are a well-rounded team that performs well. The White Sox made a nice addition in Dunn and could get bounceback years from Peavy, Pierre, and/or Rios, but that’s a longshot, and they still only made it to 88 wins last year even with Konerko’s huge season. Dunn will provide value, but best-case scenario they’re a 92 win team factoring in Konerko’s regression. That’s the Giants’ record from last year, but again, AL Central, and the Giants are a better team this year than last year in a tougher division.

The Yankees are of course the other big possibility, but they’re largely old and have no pitching beyond Sabathia and Pettitte if he comes back. This will be their undoing; an injury-prone, aging offense and mediocre pitching against the Sox new offense, the Rays’ young arms, and the Jays’ surprising competence spells a third place finish, which is still good in that division, but not better than the playoff-bound NL teams.

The NL Central is horrible, and while the Brewers are the best, that’s not saying all that much.

The NL West is the 2nd or 3rd best division in baseball; the Rockies, Padres, Dodgers, and Giants are all at least good, and the Diamondbacks are really underrated. They keep finishing with lousy records but can surprise with offense-led attacks and lucky pitching. The Giants should win it, which puts them among the best in baseball.

The NL East is 2nd or 3rd depending on where the West falls, and the Braves’ all-around impressive team warrants a spot over the Twins and Yankees. They’re a mix of young and old, pitching and offense, bullpen and bench, a solid defensive team, and if Freddie Freeman shows up to take Glaus’ spot and hits like he can, then with the addition of Uggla they don’t need their good rotation and fabulous bullpen to win games, but they have them anyway. Escobar to Gonzalez is a downgrade, and they need to sort out CF/LF, but they’re generally better than Minnesota or New York.

That’s the rub for me; the Giants are better than the Braves, the Braves better than the Twins or Yankees, and the Rays better than both of them. I just can’t see the Rays, Giants, and Braves shaking out with any team other than Tampa on top (Braves could be better than the Giants) considering how good they were last year and how they can replace Crawford’s production. And the Twins and Yankees aren’t better than any of those teams, and there’s no other team in baseball (MAYBE the White Sox) that can really hang with those guys; the A’s are getting there but need offense and bullpen additions, and the Rangers played in a weak division, lost their second biggest asset and good/great DH, and need Lewis to not turn back into a pumpkin. They’re probably hanging with the Twins and Yankees, but have too many holes.

So I guess the big question that this stupidly long post should be asking is: how would you rank them, and why?

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Dec 26, 2010 12:50 AM PST up reply actions  

Philly?

In the end, America will be remembered for three things: the Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.

by cornball on Dec 27, 2010 4:44 AM PST up reply actions  

Are No. 1 on my original list

This ridiculous exposition was about why the Rays should be No. 3.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Dec 29, 2010 5:35 PM PST up reply actions  

I guess I would rank the Top 5

Red Sox
Giants
Phillies
Braves
Brewers

which does represent a huge swing towards the NL looking at it. It’s just that the traditional powers in the AL have serious flaws to me (like you I think the Yankees pitching looks thin and bad, and their offense is starting to show its age, especially if Jeter does have a bounceback year, Arod doesn’t get on the field more, and Tex doesn’t start coming closer to living up to his ridiculous contract, and I already described my issues with the Rays).

My Phillies/Giants rankings certainly looks like crazy homerism, don’t it. But I just have a serious question mark on the health of Chase Utley, who looked pretty bad most of last year, and I think if that team is losing Werth to FA and a productive Utley to health and decline (a problem which has already hit Rollins IMO), then they really do have some issues. Especially if Howard isn’t hitting 45 HRs. The incredible rotation is going to mask it, but I think that lineup is in decline.

And really, I like the NL Central much much more than a lot of other commentators here. I think the Reds are for real, and can pitch enough to match a lineup that hasn’t yet come into its own (I would seriously think about predicting an MVP for Jay Bruce if we were at that point in the offseason), I just can’t imagine St. Louis playing such dull and uninspired ball again as they did down the stretch, and as is clear from above, I really like the Brewers. Greinke/Gallardo is a huge 1 and 2, and that offense (which has I think three great hitters in Braun, Fielder and Weeks, and some others who are productive role players) doesn’t need their pitching to be great, just competent. Personally, I’d take a core of Braun, Fielder, Greinke, and Gallardo over a core of Pujols, Halladay, Carpenter, and Wainwright though they’re both pretty great. and I’d take both over any such foursome in the AL with the exception of Gonzalez, Crawford, Lester, Buchholz (and maybe not even that one, although the Red Sox superior depth of roster makes them the overall #1 for me pretty easily).

MY DAD WAS WRONG!

by Roger on Dec 27, 2010 8:36 AM PST up reply actions  

I don’t see any way the Phillies aren’t the best team in baseball with that rotation. They certainly have question marks with that offense, but it’s so good anyway that even if every single one of those things happens, they’re still pretty decent. Not great, perhaps not even above average, but it would take a series of injuries and down years to bring that team down, and since that’s a problem with any team, it’s not fair to penalize the Phillies that much. Given the age of that offense, I agree they are more likely to underperform, but for the most part they haven’t. They’ve been one of the top offensive clubs, and while losing Werth will hurt, Rollins, Ibanez, and Polanco have potential that wasn’t really realized last year. They could suck, but they could be great. One thing is for sure, the Phillies have the best collection of talent in baseball, the question is whether or not they’ll meet that potential. And the Giants haven’t lost anyone significant, but they haven’t gotten anyone significant either.

The addition of Greinke to the Central is big, and if Aroldis Chapman is for real, they might not be the worst division in baseball. But the problem I have with that division is that the Pirates, Astros, Brewers (last year), and even Cubs are bad enough that you can’t really evaluate how good each team is, since the good teams (Reds and Cardinals) get to beat up on the bad ones so much. The Reds were .500 against teams outside the Central, and 91-71 overall; that kind of disparity is an indictment on the division’s strength. Only the Cardinals performed well against other teams, and while the Brewers have improved considerably with the additions of Marcum and Greinke, I don’t think it’s enough.

The Reds do have a legitimate offense (Brandon Phillips is hugely underrated), but I really don’t like their pitching and the Brewers are a lot more balanced now than they were before. They can hit, but I’m wondering how much of that offense is getting to face the Pirates, Cubs, and Astros pitching a whole lot, and how much of it is going to diminish once Hart comes back to earth and the replacement of Escobar with Betancourt. They went from a team in the high teens/low twenties to a team in the top 10, but they still haven’t addressed their bullpen, and while the starting pitching should be much better, I don’t think it’ll be good enough overall to make them a top five team, especially because the standard they’re judged against is far lower than most other teams. The Cardinals aren’t that great either; they rely too heavily on a few players, and that’s not good. The Brewers are clearly the best team in the Central, but that’s like being the tallest dwarf.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Dec 29, 2010 7:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Yeah, how will that Brewers bullpen do. With Hoffman, Vargas, Coffey, Villanueva and Riske picking up innings they’re likely to be out of it by the trading deadline. I guess it depends on how much they play dwarf teams.

by JetSam on Jan 1, 2011 9:01 AM PST up reply actions  

They certainly won't be out of it by the deadline

And they’ll probably win the division. A bad bullpen can only hurt a team so much, and the starting pitching and offense are good enough to at least keep them in it pretty much all the way.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Jan 1, 2011 7:53 PM PST up reply actions  

I wouldn’t have the Rays up that high.

Still the father of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden

by SFGuy on Dec 25, 2010 10:50 PM PST up reply actions  

What are these guys smoking?

Maybe it’s the stove that’s smoking. Ever think of that??

Brian Sabean strongly encourages you to disregard the drudgery of your employment responsibilities and join him in the consumption of spirituous libations.

by satyricrash on Dec 25, 2010 3:02 PM PST reply actions  

Phillies
Yankees
Red Sox

Probably the top 3

I think for the last two spots you could make arguments for the Giants, Rays, Angels, Reds and maybe the Rangers. I’m sure I’m forgetting someone.

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Better than you! Mejor que tú! Beter dan jij! 良い場合も! Mehor than abo!
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by GrahamCrakalaka on Dec 25, 2010 7:32 PM PST reply actions  

Not to mention

A really old offense that keeps getting hurt and possibly not only losing out on Crawford and Lee but also having Pettitte retire. Look at the pitching here; that is just ugly.

Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.

Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)

by quincy0191 on Dec 26, 2010 12:52 AM PST up reply actions  

On a scale ....

of Barry Larkin being the best and Ken Rosenthal being the worst…

WHY THE HELL does Ken Rosenthal always sound like he’s tattling on someone or something he heard third-hand?

"Sharp grounder hit to Uribe to Thompson, for one, to Clark- DOUBLE PLAY!"

by FanFavoriteNo36 on Dec 26, 2010 3:32 PM PST reply actions  

I don't get it.

Rosenthal’s one of the better baseball reporters (writers, not so much, but reporters, easily), I don’t get why he’s so terrible on TV.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Dec 26, 2010 5:47 PM PST up reply actions  

It is possible to be a good, reliable reporter and a crappy analyst at the same time.

"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean

by Smotheredinhugs on Dec 27, 2010 6:22 AM PST up reply actions  

I don't mean his analysis

Whenever I see him on TV, he reporting the most useless, inane crap.

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Dec 27, 2010 2:39 PM PST up reply actions  

That good Mount Vesuvius peyote.

In the end, America will be remembered for three things: the Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.

by cornball on Dec 27, 2010 4:36 AM PST reply actions  

Except that Rosenthal was OK going with the unknown of the Rockies at No. 5.

by Darren J. Gendron on Dec 28, 2010 8:36 PM PST reply actions  

Sorry to continue beating the LOLMLBN horse...

But I saw that segment at like 3 AM a few days ago when I couldn’t sleep. Mitch Williams, when asked about what the Phillies would do about their lack of right-handed hitting, actually suggested they trade Cole Hamels for Justin Upton. Rosenthal shot him down in the tone of voice one would use when speaking to a child, or misbehaving puppy.

My son: actually Jose Guillen?! I guess all along, the enemy... was me.

by Sammy Danger on Dec 30, 2010 11:48 PM PST reply actions  

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