Phillies Payroll Unsustainable - Waiting for the Other Shoe(s) to Drop
by Fla-Giant on Dec 14, 2010 10:39 AM PST
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PrintWith yesterday's signing of Cliff Lee the Phillies payroll for the 2011 season will exceed the $167M mark, by my calculations. There is some doubt in the final number, because we don't know yet if any of Lee's 2011 $20M salary is deferred money, but even if 50% of it was deferred (highly unlikely) the payroll would still exceed $157M. Either way, they will also be on the hook to pay multi-million $$$ in luxury tax. That's not sustainable for a team with the Phillies revenues. For comparison, the Yankees' projected payroll for 2011 will be in the $185M range if they re-sign Andy Pettite to a contract similar to what he was paid in 2010. The Phillies pull in significantly less money than the Yankees.
So, it seems pretty obvioius to me that the Phils need to purge about $20M in salary over the next 3 months. There were already rumors swirling around the Red Sox having an interest in starting pitcher Joe Blanton (I highly doubt this unless the Phils are willing to eat a bunch of his salary). Blanton is scheduled to make $8.5M next year, so that wiould be a nice start for the Phillies. The other player that every team knows the Phillies would like to unload is left fielder Raul Ibanez (scheduled to make $11.5M), but that's also a contract that is basically untradeable withoiut the Phils eating at least 40% of the contract.
In looking at their roster, I think that it's pretty obvious that there are 2 guys that they might be willing to trade, that would actually get them something good in return and give them salary relief. Those 2 guys are shortstop Jimmy Rollins ($8.5M) and closer Brad Lidge ($11.5M). Rollins is in the final year of his contract, and will almost certainly be fielding offers in the $15M per year range after the 2011 season - which the Phillies can in no way afford. The Phillies would hate to lose him, but if they figure he's going ot be gone in 1 year anyway then they have to look into trading him now for a young cost-contolled SS and 1 or 2 minor league prospects. If they can get a SS who can play solid D then they have to figure that their offense can absorb the loss of Rollins's bat, because of their great starting pitching. Rollins would fit in great in SF, but sadly the Giants have no such young SS trade bait to offer the Phils, although a 3-way deal would be a highly-unlikely possibility. Off the top of my head, I would say that Boston, Toronto, and Milwaukee are possible trade partners for Rollins. The Sox could hand over Jed Lowrie (and as a plus they might even consider taking on Blanton along with Rollins), Toronto has Yunel Escobar (who they recently picked up from the Braves), and the Brewers have Alcides Escobar.
As for Lidge, he has struggled mightily since his monster 2008 season, and the Phils would love to dump his salary. They have Ryan Madson ready to step in to fill the closer role, and Jose Contreras, who was a stud in the pen for them in 2010, could easily step in and take over Madson's setup role. He would have a lot less suitors than Rollins would, but relievers have been in strong demand this offseason.
After the jump I'll list the Phillies major contracts for 2011 (along with the year the contract expires), if you want to come up with your own scenarios. Notice what a bargain their catcher Ruiz is.:
Roy Halladay = $20M (2013 - with 1 year club option)
Ryan Howard = $20M (2016 - with 1 year club option)
Cliff Lee = $20M (2015 - with 1 year club option)
Chase Utley = $15M (2013)
Roy Oswalt = $16M (2011 - with 1 year club option)
Raul Ibanez = $11.5M (2011)
Brad Lidge = $11.5M (2011 - with 1 year club option)
Cole Hamels = $9.5M (2011 - arb eligible in 2012 - FA in 2013)
Jimmy Rollins = $8.5M (2011)
Joe Blanton = $8.5M (2012)
Shane Victorino = $7.5M (2012)
Placido Polanco = $5.25M (2012 - with 1 year club option)
Ryan Madson = $4.5M (2011)
Danys Baez = $2.75M (2011)
Carlos Ruiz = $2.75M (2012 - with 1 year club option)
Jose Contreras = $2.5M (2012 - with 1 year club option)
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I’m sure they will now trade for Greinke
My mind ain't nuthin' but a total blank, I think I'll just stay here and draaank - Merle Haggard
First time to go undefeated in the regular season
And lose to the Giants in the NLCS.
Still the father of two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
Sabes really needs to keep an close eye on this one. If the Sox do end up getting Rollins, then I have to believe that Epstein would be looking to unload Marco Scutaro on the cheap (like 2 lower-level propsects). Scutaro would be a much better option for the Giants at SS than Tejada. Tejada could then take over Uribe’s super-sub role.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Tejada signed to be the starting SS, Bochy has said this much, so there’s no way he’s anything less for at least the first half. Jose Guillen played almost every day, based on what probably amounted to a handshake agreement. I don’t think there’s any chance the Giants both 1) find a better SS that they can afford and 2) play him.
Scutaro will be 35 (36 in October) next year, and has a $6m option for 2012, which would be decent if he still plays well this year, but not a long-term answer. And Rollins is coming off two disappointing seasons and some injuries, so even if the Phillies could unload him, the Red Sox would probably want to keep Scutaro as insurance, and don’t need to dump his $5m salary.
Eugenio Velez: Really fast... at getting picked off. SICK BURN!!
If the Giants find a better option tha Tejada, then they’ll use that option. Just as Uribe supplanted Rent at SS in 2010 even though Rent was making $6M less than Rent. The only reason Rent got to start in the postseason was that Bochy lost faith in Panda @ 3B and Fontenot showed that he wasn’t a good option in the Atlanta series, so Bochy decided to move Uribe to 3B. Both Bochy and Sabes have already said that Tejada could easily slide over to 3B if Panda doesn’t get his act together and the Giants find another viable option at SS.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Renteria didn’t get lose significant playing time until he’d played miserably for a year and a half and then got hurt, while Uribe was consistently played better. Yes, eventually the better player will get more playing time, if the performance gap is significant and over a long enough period of time. But how long did it take for Rowand to get benched? How many days did Guillen play down the stretch while Cody Ross (better offensively and defensively) rode the bench? There’s no way that both 1) Sabean picks up a player to start over Tejada and 2) Bochy puts him in the starting lineup on opening day. Tejada is here to start, and that’s what’s going to happen.
And the payroll is probably maxed out anyway.
Eugenio Velez: Really fast... at getting picked off. SICK BURN!!
I am not sure the other shoe has to drop till next year.
Oswalt has a club option and they might be fine with letting him go. If so, this is exactly the kind of one year gamble we had hoped Magowan would have taken in the Bonds years.
"Do you smell that Kenny? That's hard news. Notice the lack of fornicating horses."
I guarantee the Phillies are scrambling to dump salary. One of their postion players, Blanton, or Lidge will be gone before the start of the season.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
They’re not trading Jimmy Rollins, though. Blanton or Lidge makes sense, except both have contracts that are going to make them somewhat difficult to move without the Phillies paying a decent amount of the salary, which of course undermines the move to begin with.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
Yeah, the one year pricey gamble seems to be what they are doing. I think Blanton could be moved (maybe even NYY, given what has happened). Lidge is hard to see, given his price and production, and that Philly needs to keep every good relieve it has, at this point, even if overpriced.
by haverecords on Dec 14, 2010 12:11 PM PST up reply actions
BLOLanton will not be traded unless it is with Dominic Brown LOL.
Too bad they traded all their A- B+ guys to get Lee and Halladay, then still ended up paying LOLee anyway. LOL.
"Do you smell that Kenny? That's hard news. Notice the lack of fornicating horses."
I dunno, seems to have worked out fairly well for them. They have two of the top five pitchers in baseball, and Oswalt and Hamels aren’t exactly filler’s in the 3 & 4 spots in the rotation. Yes, they gave away a few prospects but I’d make that trade for Halladay in a heartbeat.
Some say that some cannot say because the Stig can make some not say what they want to say and all i want to say is i don't know what the hell i'm trying to say.
In the end they got more talent back for Lee then they sent getting him, although I don’t really like any of the players in those two deals all that much. Taylor has taken a serious dip in prospect status since being dealt. I think only Drabek is a valuable piece, and given what their staff looks like right now, I don’t see that their missing him all that much. The biggest mistake in all that sequence was signing Blanton to that terrible deal. I suppose if you’re a Phillie fan you can dream that Lee would have made the difference in the 2010 LCS, which is possible. But in the end they’ve gotten a great rotation that certainly puts them in great position to return to a World Series and the prospects they sent to Toronto, Cleveland, and Houston likely won’t be sending any of those teams to the Series any time soon (although I do really like what Toronto’s doing).
I love prospects, but the pendulum is swinging toward overvaluing them at this point. the Phils have well for themselves with the prospects they’ve kept and with the prospects they’ve sent away.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
I'm with ya
They are going to play the “we can sustain this if we have to” to the media so they get a better return, but something has to give. Blanton makes the most sense (at least to me) as pitching is always in demand and now they have an extremely solid 1-4. One of the relievers could make sense as well as the Phillies will be going pretty deep into games with their rotation.
I would love to get Rollins (as most teams would), but we lack decent trade chips that they could want past Wheeler (I would assume they would not be into Belt as he is now focused on 1B). The SS market is always in high demand so I would do any trade unless we were given a negotiation window with Rollins to iron out a contract. Hell i would even send them a free Tejada to play SS for a year to minimize the prospect cost, thus making the cost for Rollins around 15 million this year (6.5 for Tejada paid by Giants and assuming the 8.5 owed to Rollins)
I still think the most likely option is landing a guy like Scutaro after a different team trades for Rollins.
Honorary parent of Duane Kuiper, beloved broadcaster and power hitting coach for the Giants.
I can already feel
That Jimmy Rollins is going to be my 2011 white whale.
My Son
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
I can see him getting a pretty good deal after bouncing back this year. He’s had two straight seasons with BABIP ~.250, he could be coming off a .270/.340/.420 year with 20 HRs, 25-30 SBs and plus defense. Early to speculate, but the Phillies, Red Sox, Giants, Mets, Dodgers and Nats could all be in on him. Giants would have Tejada, Sanchez and DeRosa coming off the books, and Rowand off after 2012.
Eugenio Velez: Really fast... at getting picked off. SICK BURN!!
Would we want Ibanez at 5-6 million?
Absolutely not, and we have, at best an average offense. Who is going to take Ibanez and or BLOLanton and their salaries, or substantial portions of their salaries? Only someone with money to burn and a penchant for aging mediocre players.
This is not happening without prospects leaving the Phillies.
"Do you smell that Kenny? That's hard news. Notice the lack of fornicating horses."
Lidge deals are as yet under-'bated...
Detroit or LAAoA still have $ and bullpen need. Leyland ad Scioscia are really going to go closer-by-rotation?
I can also see JD in big D moving Feliz to the rotation and dropping Lidge in as closer. Francisco and Ogando as insurance for a meltdown.
Either way, have to think the Phils would eat at least a couple mil, based on Lidge’s performance variance. To the contrary, Madson has not looked that good in closing situations yet.
by sanfranfreakshow on Dec 14, 2010 3:44 PM PST reply actions
are you sure Rollins will get $15 mil/season? his last 2 years have been mediocre and he’ll turn 33 next offseason…
Juan Uribe got 2 years for $21M, and the supply and demand curve for starting SS is heavily in his favor next offseason. Unless Rollins totally lays an egg in 2011 then I think $15M is conservative. He turns 33 at the end of November, so he’ll be a young 33.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I'm in this line
But I think you meant, Uribe got 3 years and $21M not 2 years. Still, with the money that Werth got this offseason along with the amount of money that Uribe got means that Rollins, iffy hammy and all will be in high demand, especially if Reyes has another meh year.
"I throw as hard as I can when I think I have to throw as hard as I can." - Walter Johnson
*Formerly known as Giant Torture
ok, you’re probably right…
i just hope the Giants don’t attempt to sign him at $15 mil for multiple years…i’m prob in the minority but i would much rather have Uribe at $7 mil x 3…
by repeat_in_2011 on Dec 15, 2010 6:43 PM PST up reply actions
The thing about ML payrolls
Is that we have no idea what “sustainable” is. One day, the owner of any given MLB team might wake up and decide that he wants to go and spend a bunch of money, and all of a sudden our definition of sustainability is completely different.
My Son
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
True. Payrolls across baseball have risen significantly this decade (because the industry revenues have spiked significantly). Right now it looks like there are going to be 5 teams with payrolls under $70 million. To put that in perspective there are 4 teams who will spend over $140 million next year. Having a payroll around $80 million in the current environment practically makes you one of the cheapskates.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
what happens if the Phils win a few WS in the next 3-4 years?
i bet their income goes thru the roof and the value of the franchise increases, too….
this is why i would have liked to see the Giants really improve themselves(Werth or Crawford) while expanding the payroll instead of basically standing still or losing a little in Tejada vs. Uribe….they’re putting too much hope in Belt…
by repeat_in_2011 on Dec 15, 2010 6:49 PM PST up reply actions
I think the strategy is to leave extra room at the top of the payroll to keep re-upping the pitching staff and eventually Posey. They’re not topped out yet at $120, but with so many impact players currently under reasonable or downright bargain bin cost control, it’s smart not to top out your resources.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
I hope they trade Blanton and bring in another pitcher with an L last name. Then their rotation would be H2LOL.
Kruk: "and the Giants, the San Francisco Giants…"
Kuip: "They got one…"
Kruk: "World Champs."
- November 1, 2010
by j14 on Dec 14, 2010 10:10 PM PST reply actions 2 recs
I was just looking at their payroll, my god.
Ryan Howard $20,000,000 Halladay, Roy $20,000,000 Lee, Cliff $24,000,000 Oswalt, Roy $16,000,000 Utley, Chase $15,285,714 Ibanez, Raul $12,166,667 Lidge, Brad $12,000,000 Blanton, Joe $10,500,000 Hamels, Cole $9,500,000 Rollins, Jimmy $8,500,000 Victorino, Shane $7,500,000 Polanco, Placido $5,416,667 Madson, Ryan $4,833,333 Baez, Danys $2,750,000 Ruiz, Carlos $2,750,000 Contreras, Jose $2,500,000 Schneider, Brian $1,625,000 Gload, Ross $1,600,000 Reyes, Dennys $950,000 Mathieson, Scott $600,000 Kendrick, Kyle $750,000 Francisco, Ben $750,000 Brown, Domonic $450000 League Min $450000 League Min $450000 League Min $450000 Oswalt, Roy ($7,000,000) TOTAL $174,777,381 <pre> Now, they will be able to handle that this year, but what happens when they start sucking and stop selling out every game? Once you cross this bench mark their is no returning to a medium market. The fans will forever expect this now. Also other than Singleton and Brown, they have no position players worth having in their minors.
Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly
LOLidge
Meet Rowand-2. Not that that would help them shed payroll, just overpaid $12M a year guy always brings Scott to mind.
"I throw as hard as I can when I think I have to throw as hard as I can." - Walter Johnson
*Formerly known as Giant Torture
They've got a payroll in the rotation alone
$80M in salary for those five. Christ.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Well, apparently Lee will only make $11 mil this season.
No relation to Matt Cain...
by Caine Black Knife on Dec 15, 2010 9:29 PM PST up reply actions
That's right Philly
Defer that salary. It’s a good thing you locked up Howard, because I’d really like to see Utley in a Giants uniform.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Utley really looked like a physically declining player last year. It’ll be really interesting to see what he and Rollins are able to produce in the next couple of years. If Utley’s suddenly a shell of himself, that team takes a serious hit.
MY DAD WAS WRONG!
Yeah, and the other thing is that he hasn’t had “normal” injuries, busted hips are usually reserved for the geriatric not for pro athletes and some guys like Bo Jackson who hurt their hips are never the same again.
"I throw as hard as I can when I think I have to throw as hard as I can." - Walter Johnson
*Formerly known as Giant Torture
Yup. But now the will pay Lee and Howard 25 million a piece for a view seasons.
Overplayed memes:
EASTCOAST BIAS
2002 WS CANCELED
Blue Jays want all our player that we don't utilize correctly
by say hey nation on Dec 16, 2010 3:19 AM PST up reply actions
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