Should the Giants try to trade for Josh Willingham?
by Giant Torture on Nov 19, 2010 5:56 AM PST
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PrintApparently, Josh Willingham is unlikely to sign an extension and is believed to be on the trading block. Given the lack of free agents who fit the Giants needs and their budget constraints, is Josh Willingham someone the Giants should try to trade for?
Like so many things in the Giants off-season plans, it depends.
If the Giants are able to re-sign both Huff and Uribe, my thought would be no. Willingham is likely to garner somewhere in the $5-7M dollar a year range through arbitration this year, but could possibly be signed to a long term deal once he was traded for. If the Giants re-sign Huff and Uribe, the numbers most likely won't add up.
To me Willingham would be an upgrade over Pat Burrell, although not much of one defensively. The Nationals have continuously jerked Willingham around, often platooning him even though he has produced and his splits against righties and lefties aren't that great (.395 wOBA vs. Lefties, .365 wOBA vs. Righties). In only 114 games last year, he still produced 2.7 fWAR.
If the money is there, though, or if the Giants are unable to re-sign Huff or Uribe, I think Willingham would be a great trade target, unless the Nationals start getting ridiculous with their demands. For me a deal that included one of the Giants relievers, Thomas Neal and a lower pitching prospect would be fair. If the Nationals want Belt, the answer should obviously be no, but Wheeler might be within reason because TINSTAAPP.
Thoughts?
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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So would I
But given what’s available out there, I think Willingham would be the best option, at least for this year.
"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja
by Giant Torture on Nov 19, 2010 6:01 AM PST up reply actions
I wonder if he’s that much better than Burrell. I mean, if he’s worth the prospects that we would give up to attain him.
Willingham’s WAR over the past 3 seasons: 2.9, 2.5, 2.7
Burrell’s WAR over past 3 seasons: 3.0, -0.4, 2.5
I just hate the idea of trading Neal.
Ask me about my blog.
That's the difference
I’d love for the Giants to unload Neal while he has value.
However, Willingham has been jerked around by the Nationals and given that he hasn’t gotten an entire season’s worth of playing time, it’s tough to compare WAR’s with Burrell. The bigger thing to me is that Willingham is 31, Burrell is 34 which is around the age when it can go at any time.
"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja
by Giant Torture on Nov 19, 2010 6:08 AM PST up reply actions
I think the reason he missed a lot of time in 2010 is that he had to have knee surgery. He missed 50 games in 2008 with a back injury. If we’re talking about health, he doesn’t seem any less risky than Burrell.
Ask me about my blog.
Right. Willingham hasn’t been jerked around or ever platooned by the Nats. He’s just had injury issues. When he’s been healthy he’s started for them. I think there was an appendectomy in there somewhere, too.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Also the Nats held pretty steady last trade deadline on demanding a serious haul for Willingham if they were to move him. I think they were holding out hopes of an extension (they were also holding out hopes that with the emergence of Strasburg they could actually put a winning team on the field in 2011. Unfortunately that idea went west with Strasburg’s elbow tendons).
For whatever reason the Nats have held lots of players who ultimately left as FA (and even worse, didn’t in Dmitri Young’s case) despite many teams interested in trading for them. Don’t know what that’s all about, possibly Rizzo’s background as a draft guru makes him more comfortable with the picks. but whatever it is, I don’t think a Willingham deal gets done without hurting us from a talent inventory standpoint.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Memory fail
For some reason, I thought he was being platooned at times, but you’re right. Which changes the equation somewhat, although I would think that his injury risk is about equal to Burrell’s age risk.
"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja
by Giant Torture on Nov 19, 2010 6:51 AM PST up reply actions
Yeah
This is concerning. On the other hand, DeRosa would likely be a capable replacement if Willingham had to spend time on the DL, so at the very least, we got options.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Quick back of the napkin math:
(Someone correct me if I mucked things up)
A 5/4/3 weighting of Willingham’s past 3 years = 2.17 WAR for 2011
The same thing for Burrell = 1.39 WAR for 2011
Willingham is probably a better chance to post a +2 WAR season, but Burrell isn’t that far behind.
Ask me about my blog.
Also, how much value do you think Neal has? He obviously lost some shine after his 2010 in Richmond. I still like him as a prospect, though. Trading him now could be selling low.
Ask me about my blog.
I don't think he has a ton of value
But watching him at Richmond last year, I’m not a believer. I think he’s a 4th OF at best at this point and the longer he plays the more that will be exposed. However, a solid year in the hitter friendly PCL could raise his stock, but there’s still the chance that he could have another year like this one.
"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja
by Giant Torture on Nov 19, 2010 6:16 AM PST up reply actions
I like Neal even more now because I think he's underrated
His year, in the proper context, was still pretty decent. He needs to improve his plate discipline, but I’m cautiously optimistic. I do not want to give him up for Willingham.
Juan "Doesn't Cheat The Game" Perez, future CF for the World Champion San Francisco Giants.
Yeah, AA can be hard on prospects and Neal bended, but he didn’t break. I still have some hope for him.
Ask me about my blog.
BENT
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
The baseball gods do not always punish the wicked but they will not just allow people to spit in their faces -- Joe Posnanski
I wish I would stop cheating. fuck. this is jctgamer's fault -- jponry
If one subscribes to the the theory that Burrell is a different player when not DHing,
…it really titls the decision toward Burrell since we’d have to give up no prospects to sign him
The thong is, it happened.
I'm still deciding how I want to misinterpret titls
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
The baseball gods do not always punish the wicked but they will not just allow people to spit in their faces -- Joe Posnanski
I wish I would stop cheating. fuck. this is jctgamer's fault -- jponry
No I get that part. I’m just trying to figure out if I should be reading “titties” or “titles” in your original post.
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
The baseball gods do not always punish the wicked but they will not just allow people to spit in their faces -- Joe Posnanski
I wish I would stop cheating. fuck. this is jctgamer's fault -- jponry
BJ Upton
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
This is the most intruiging option for me
I think I’d trade Wheeler for him, and I’d probably throw in another prospect or two. Upton seems like a guy who’d benefit from a change of scenery, and I’d love to have his talent.
My Son
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
Upton has two more seasons (iirc)
I think Wheeler would probably be more than enough for
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
Justin Upton please
I would want BJ even if he gave me one.
Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees because he wants to win the World Series. Wait, what???
by rxmeister on Nov 19, 2010 5:22 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
"wouldn't want BJ"
Dammit!
Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees because he wants to win the World Series. Wait, what???
by rxmeister on Nov 19, 2010 5:24 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Upton for Wheeler would be intriguing
I don’t think I would pull the trigger on that though
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
Oh God yes
A Low-A arm for a 23 year old starting RF under reasonable contract through 2015 and tremendous upside? I really, really like Wheeler’s potential, but his best shot is in this system, and there are too many obstacles for him to overcome before he even makes the majors for me to pass up that deal.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
You can trade away Zach Wheeler when you can pry him from my cold, dead fingers. He’s the only legit starting prospect we have, as of this moment (maybe Kickham and/or Rosin change my mind next summer). With most of us here counting the days until Zito surfs his way elsewhere, and a few of us not yet convinced that JSanchez is the droid we’re looking for, I absolutely want to hold on to Wheeler. Dick Tidrow picked him, so he’s going to be a star. That’s just science.
"(Christy) Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball. The first statement means the same as the second." - Damon Runyon
He’s the only legit starting prospect we have, as of this moment
How can you say such a thing, Lyle? You know, when you insult my boy, you insult me, too!
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Roger
Well, I’m not yet fully on the Casilla Bandwagon, despite several very polite offers to join. As with Rosin and Kickham, I retain the right to change my mind based on his 2011 results. But in his case, I’m just not expecting to.
"(Christy) Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball. The first statement means the same as the second." - Damon Runyon
Oh no my boy’s Jorge. Although I do believe Casilla would be a better prospect if they ever let him start. Why they’ve pitched him so few innings thus far in his career is really a wonderment to me, although it does take a lot of nerve to criticize the org’s udnerstanding of pitching prospects.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Ah, sorry. The Bucardo Bandwagon. Yeah, I still think we only have one elite pitching prospect. I would love to be proven wrong.
"(Christy) Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball. The first statement means the same as the second." - Damon Runyon
Wheeler's still a while away
Also, there is something called free agency ;-)
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
Dude, the Diamondbacks would want Sandoval, Bumgarner, Neal in addition to Wheeler. There’s no way that’s a viable 1 for 1.
"What’s that, Buster? You asked for a bicycle? Well, sorry. Santa brought butt floss instead."
I absolutely would
TINSTAAPP, etc. BJ is a proven above-average, young outfielder. That’s worth any pitching prospect who isn’t an A+ sure thing.
My Son
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
This
"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja
by Giant Torture on Nov 22, 2010 7:57 AM PST up reply actions
C&P from the other thread
Willingham is a career .265/.367/.475 hitter
Pat Burrell is a career .254/.362/.475 hitter
One of these would take a not-insignificant package of prospects to acquire. One can be gotten for very little money.
My Son
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
Per Fangraphs:
According to this report, the Nationals have decided not to offer a long-term contract extension to outfielder Josh Willingham. It is also likely that the team will deal Willingham by the start of the 2011 season. Willingham, who turns 32 in February, will enter his final arbitration season next year. He is coming off a $4.6 million contract last season, and with a injury shortened but still successful 2010, the outfielder can probably expect an arbitration reward somewhere in the neighborhood of $6.5 to $7.5 million.
Yes.
Totally dig that guys bat.
A better version of Pat Burrell? Yes please.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Nov 19, 2010 9:50 AM PST reply actions
But why trade for a slightly better version of Pat Burrell
When you can just have, you know, Pat Burrell? And he’ll cost you less money? And you won’t have to give up prospects to get him? And he’s not hurt as often?
My Son
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
Don't understand why everyone assumes Burrell will cost less?
Burrell could cost $6M per, not to mention that if Willingham isn’t re-signed he could produce either a 1st round pick or a sandwich pick. I think fangraphs is a bit generous. While I mostly agree with their ceiling of $7.5M, the basement could be much lower IMO, even as low as $5M given his injury history.
"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja
by Giant Torture on Nov 19, 2010 11:03 AM PST up reply actions
Hard to see Burrell costing $6 million. I’d guess $3 or lower, though I’m a pretty bad guesses on these things.
But I sure wouldn’t factor in possible draft picks into the deal. For one it’s really difficult to make the Elias rankings as a corner OF (which are I believe sandwiched together with 1B). Willingham wasn’t an A or B this year so you’d be going on faith in a monster season to expect it of him next year. In addition, it seems pretty likely that there will be some significant changes to the way the draft is handled in the upcoming CBA, so it’s entirely possible that FA compensation picks will be going away by 2012.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
There's no way he's only making 5
He made 4.6 this year, and players will usually see at least a million dollar bump in their last year of arb – and Willingham had his best year ever at the plate. I would be shocked if Willingham makes less than Burrell next year.
My Son
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
Best year ever?
When you consider that arbitration typically looks at more traditional stats and uses a 3 year average:
Willingham will lose his numbers from 2007 when he appeared in 144 games and hit 21 HR’s with 89 RBI’s. Granted, we all make look at WAR and wOBA, but I’m not familiar with many—if any—arbiters giving credence to those numbers. If you do look at those, though, it was a career high in wOBA, but from a traditionalist standpoint, the only stat he had a career high in was OBP. He hit 8 fewer HR’s this year than last, had 6 fewer RBI’s and also played in just 114 games.
His three year averages last year: 20 HR’s, 67 RBI’s, .260 BA, .365 OBP,
Three year averages after this year: 18.33 HR’s, 56 RBI’s, .260 BA, .373 OBP
At the end of the day though, arbitration is a crap shoot, which is why so few people ever risk it and sign deals before heading to arbitration.
You’re right though that he may not make less than Burrell, but I don’t think the disparity is that great.
"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja
by Giant Torture on Nov 19, 2010 11:39 AM PST up reply actions
fail
*may look at WAR…
"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja
by Giant Torture on Nov 19, 2010 11:41 AM PST up reply actions
I think Burrell's year-and-hald of crap and 1/2 season of goodness...
…make him a somewhat of a risk for a team to sink a lot of money into
I also think if there was ever a case where a hometown discount might happen, it would be Burrell. Dude’s made a lof of money, had the time of his life and is near the end of the line. As long as he treated fairly, I don’t think he’d necessarily go for the highest bidder.
I think we could get him for about $4 million
The thong is, it happened.
If that’s the case, than they should jump on it, but remember that Pat now makes his home in Arizona, so if the Giants can’t re-sign Huff—or even if they do—and Arizona is interested the Giants could very well lose out.
"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja
by Giant Torture on Nov 19, 2010 11:40 AM PST up reply actions
I don't know
Most players want to play at home to closer to their wife and kids. Pat the Bat’s wife is whoever the hottest chick at the closest bar is, and he has no kids (that he knows about). He’s from the Bay Area, he just won a title there (while the D-Bags finished last), and that’s where his heart (Huff) is — I’d be shocked if he chose Arizona over SF if the offers were competitive.
"This is a street fight, and we win those." -- BRIAN SABEAN, 10/23/10
by Josh from Hollywood on Nov 19, 2010 3:45 PM PST up reply actions
Well...
I guess it depends on the price for Willingham…
And if the Giants can get Burrell.
But yeah, sure… Burrell should probably be sought after before Willingham.
But if things don’t work out there, then Willingham is my 2nd pick.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Nov 19, 2010 12:01 PM PST up reply actions
And by "things not working out"
I mean Burrell costing $6M or more.. Or any sorta multi-year deal.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Nov 19, 2010 12:04 PM PST up reply actions
Fixed that for you
A better version of Pat Burrell? Yes please.
"Guys, here's 20 wins right here" - Aubrey Huff on his red thong
by EliminateMe on Nov 19, 2010 12:03 PM PST up reply actions
He has been my white whale for awhile. I even suggested trading Jonathan Sanchez for him last offseason. LOL ME.
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
The baseball gods do not always punish the wicked but they will not just allow people to spit in their faces -- Joe Posnanski
I wish I would stop cheating. fuck. this is jctgamer's fault -- jponry
I’ve been wanting Willingham for awhile. But there are other options out there via trade not named Justin Upton. Regardless of any potential upgrade I wonder if the Giants have the prospects to make a trade for a decent or good player, I don’t see them parting with Belt and other then him they have so few attractive prospects above A ball.
If not for the money and recent injury history I would love to get Beltran… :(
I saw him play the Cubs this summer at Wrigley, he wasn’t bad but not that great either after that hot start.
My drunk friends spent the entire game calling him Ty Wigginton from the bleachers, so that’s one good thing about him.
Hey, imagine that. Drunk fans at a Cubs game.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
If we could get him
For meh prospects I’d pull the trigger. Ramon Ramirez, Roger Kieschnick, and Clayton Tanner? I’d love that. Probably take more to do it, but maybe Rizzo overvalues Ramirez’ Giants ERA, Tanner’s shiny ERA, and Kieschnick’s potential.
But this deal is as much about the picks as the production for me. I lurve draft picks. And Willingham will probably be a Type A, which would be just fantastic, and will almost definitely be a Type B, which is pretty nice too. The picks alone could very possibly provide more value than the prospect(s) we send over if they’re looking for B’s.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I think we should stand pat (pun intended) unless we can get a huge upgrade. Willingham, while good, isn’t much better than Pat, so no need for him. I would go after Justin Upton. He’s someone who could make us a perenial WS contender.
by GovernorStephCurry on Nov 20, 2010 12:51 PM PST reply actions
Upton’s price is apparently ridiculous. Towers wants a couple ML players and a couple top prospects. We’d basically have to give up Pablo, Bumgarner, Wheeler, and Belt (might be able to get away with Neal). No way acquiring him makes us better.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
This.
And I think Towers already said he won’t trade within the league anyways.
Let someone else make a ridiculously foolish offer.
"Today, it's as if McCovey's line drive finally went through. And the earthquake didn't happen. And Spiezio struck out. And Snow was safe."
I don’t see how his price is ridiculous when Upton is so young and cheap relative to his talents and large upside that still remains. Plus he can move to CF too if a team wants, which adds a little value to him.
Not ridiculous in general or not ridiculous for us? Because there’s no way in heck I think the Giants should pull the trigger on a trade for him.
For one, however a good a player is one player cannot hold up an entire team. We of all people should know this. I’d much rather have “very good” from Pablo, Bumgarner, Wheeler and Belt than “extraordinary” from Upton and “meh” by a bunch of replacements. Also, we don’t need a CF. And also also, Bumgarner is young and cheap and has a large upside. He should be just as untouchable as Posey.
"Today, it's as if McCovey's line drive finally went through. And the earthquake didn't happen. And Spiezio struck out. And Snow was safe."
Right now
If I had to be on who’d be a more valuable player over the length of their team control, I’d say Bumgarner. Upton’s failed to deliver on his promise so far, despite having plenty of opportunities, and Bumgarner looks like he’ll be a Cy Young competitor in at most a couple years. Upton’s obviously got the larger upside, but Bumgarner’s more developed and still only 21.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
If we have to give up Bum, then NO!
But i’d definitely do Panda, Wheeler, Neal + Culberson for Upton.
by GovernorStephCurry on Nov 21, 2010 1:59 PM PST up reply actions
So would I...
…but it won’t happen.
Far as I’m concerned any trade that mentions MadBum is immediately a “NO!”
"Today, it's as if McCovey's line drive finally went through. And the earthquake didn't happen. And Spiezio struck out. And Snow was safe."
Dave Cameron wrote two pretty good pieces on the subject of Upton’s trade value recently. Here’s the first which does the math on how much production above pay Upton’s likely to provide in a best case and poor case (not worst obviously which would likely involve catastrophic injury), and here’s the second which looks at the unique nature of an Upton trade. Make sure you click on the link in the first piece which looks at all the players since 1980 who have had 100 ABs before the age of 20.
For me, the money quote would be this:
He’s signed through 2015 at a rate that is a fraction of his actual value. His 2010 wasn’t as good as his 2009 season, but it’s still impossible to label a guy who put up +7.7 WAR at age 21 and 22 a disappointment.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
That's all well and good
But young, elite pitching is generally harder to get, and right now it’s being overvalued after the “Year of the Pitcher” crap. Everyone’s looking at the Giants’ great staff and meh offense and concluding that pitching = winning while hitting might mean winning. That’s not necessarily true. Replacing Bumgarner’s production right now would likely be more difficult than replacing Upton; if Ted Lilly got 3/33, getting a 3.50 ERA with plus velocity and room for improvement from a cheap LHP is just about impossible.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Checks fangraphs
Hey, Madison Bumgarner is really good.
Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.
It’s a needless argument because they’re not sending Upton to the Giants, but while I understand your (and my) affection for Bumgarner, if I’m the GM of the Dbacks, Bumgarner for Upton straight up isn’t even a conversation starter. Bumgarner and Belt for Upton would only be a good start.
The problem they’re going to run into if they’re serious about moving him (which I really don’t understand) and they’re not intentionally trying to move damaged goods is there’s just no way to get the value back for a player like Upton with a contract like Uptons. Off the top of my head I’d say the Royals and the Rays could put together a competitive package, but I really can’t see why either of them would. Especially not KC. And I’m not sure who else has the parts to really make it an equitable deal. On top of which, if Arizona’s trying to rebuild you can’t really see where the other building blocks are coming from because their system isn’t very strong. Upton’s 22. He’d be the #1 prospect in every system in baseball if he were still a minor leaguer. He’s the building block. Drew’s the building block. They don’t have building blocks in AA. It’s really a bit mystifying if there’s more than just hot stove smoke behind it.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
I think that goes both ways…If I’m Sabean then Upton for Bumgarner isn’t a conversation starter for me either. The Giants need Bum more than they need Upton.
That said, I don’t get it either. The three possibilities here seem to be a) hot stove smoke, b) Tower being an idiot or c) Tower waiting for someone to take the bait and offer something stupid. From what I’ve picked up from internet rumors the Red Sox seem to be a favorite, but I don’t know enough about their farm system to really know whether or not that’s crap.
"Today, it's as if McCovey's line drive finally went through. And the earthquake didn't happen. And Spiezio struck out. And Snow was safe."
Yeah KC seems like the best fit
They don’t really have any OF prospects-assuming Wil Myers is still a catcher. But would they will be willing to part with (probably) 2 of Hosmer/Myers/Moustakas, 1 of Lamb/Montgomery, and 1 of Duffy/Dwyer for him? I doubt it
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
The problem is the timing. If you trade for Upton its got to be because you think you’re in a window to compete for the next 5 years. KC is talking about trading Greinke and Gordon to add more pieces to their expected window of around 2014 and on. So even though they have the pieces they have no real incentive to make the deal.
Boston has all the incentive in the world but they don’t have the pieces. It’s going to be a tough needle to thread if Towers is serious about it, and in the end he’ll either have to accept way less than he wanted, or he’s going to choke on some PR backup the same way Riccardi did with Holladay, and we saw how well JP enjoyed that meal.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
True
although I think Towers is in a better position than JP since he just got hired. But yeah, it would likely take a 3 way deal to move Upton, unless Tampa’s ownership allows them to take on some salary (so they could move Hellickson instead of Garza/Shields)
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
It sounds like the kind of deal where the Red Sox would need to rope in a third or even fourth party to make it work.
Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.
If you think Upton can play CF, then you clearly have never watched a Dbacks game. He’s athletic, so I could see why one would make the assumption, but he really plays a very poor OF (even without looking at UZR). If it weren’t for a cannon of an arm they’d be looking at moving him to another position.
Per UZR he has really improved defensively over the last 2 years
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
Ok.
Are you saying you don’t trust UZR?
Sidenote-While checking Pablo’s UZR I found it curious that he UZR hated him at 1B this year
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
UZR is useful for sure. However, when it doesn’t match the eyeball test I question it. I was saying all of 2009 that Pablo wasn’t getting to balls that average 3B were getting, but people in this forum continued to point to his not so bad UZR. Then this year it got even worse, yet his 3B UZR got better.
Basically it’s not an exact science and needs to match the eye ball test, for me. Justin Upton takes worse routes to the ball than Fred Lewis, and makes even poorer decisions with the ball. But he makes up for a lot of it with a cannon of an arm that occasionally gets an assist.
Willingham was much more appetizing a year or so ago.
Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.
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