Vaccaro's Giants 2011 Hitter Projections/ 1st Fanpost
by Vaccaro on Nov 17, 2010 11:15 PM PST
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Hello Everybody. I've been a reader for the last 3 years, and I BLEED orange. But I just joined as a member, so this is my first fanpost. I'm fascinated with the scouting department aspect of baseball, as well as watching players develop and come up through the farm. In this hobby I've realized that I've generally had an uncanny knack for projecting position players and what they are going to do at the plate. Whether a seasoned vet or a promising rookie, I base my projections upon scouting reports, age and player development, a potential ceiling, recent and career statistics, my perception of a player's makeup, and perhaps most of all, my personal observations from every single one of their plate appearances and swings throughout the season. In my mind it's never too early to start projecting players, I love it. Here are my 2011 Giants regulars/position players offensive projections:
Buster Posey: Avg. 317 Obp.381 Slg. 522 OPS:903 26HR (High expectations from the mature ROY. The blossoming of a fine career)
Andres Torres: Avg. 277 Obp.348 Slg. 481 OPS:829 22HR (Yes, I think he's for real)
Freddy Sanchez: Avg. 299 Obp.337 Slg. 424 OPS:761 8HR (A healthy full year for the newly accomplished and happy Freddy Sanchez)
Aubrey Huff: Avg. 282 Obp.362 Slg. 508 OPS:870 25HR (While following the word of a few mlb scouts and my own observations this year, it looks like in my eyes Huff really has become a better hitter. Maybe it has to do with not trying to hit home runs anymore with death valley in right field at AT&T... Who knows.)
Juan Uribe: Avg. 261 Obp.302 Slg. 457 OPS:759 23HR (my slugging projection is slightly optimistic, but I honestly believe Uribe is in the very prime of his career, at least at the plate)
Cody Ross: Avg.259 Obp.318 Slg. 470 OPS:788 24HR (Slight decrease in contact, significant uptick in power. Look for a rebound to Ross' regular career stats)
Pablo Sandoval: Avg. 313 Obp.359 Slg.503 OPS:862 21 HR (Very close to Posey's 2010 slash line. In this case, I really have no idea what will happen with him, probably the toughest player to project. You're either in the optimist camp, or the pessimist for the Panda. It's hard to imagine Pablo being somewhere right in the middle of his 2009 and 2010 numbers in ‘11. And while I could make a case just as easy that he could hit something much closer to 263/316/421, I'm going to play the optimist this time, because, I can.)
Mark Derosa: Avg. 271 Obp.350 Slg. 429 OPS: 779 14HR (Another tough one to project, as is always the case when an older player returns from surgery or has missed a lot of time. There may be some adjustment period, and a bit more time on the bench, but I believe his later career power surge is for real. For now tab him conservatively for 105 or so games in ‘11.)
Bonus: Brandon Belt: Avg. 291 Obp.365 Slg.476 OPS:841 11HR (I'm projecting a midseason call-up, a la Posey. However I believe June or July might be more realistic considering the Giants offense doesn't figure to be as desperate as it was at the time of Posey's call-up. I just love this kid's highly polished approach and short swing to all fields. I believe like all rookies he will go through his share of slumps, and it will take time for him to be able to adjust his hitting mechanics when in slumps against big league pitching, due to the fact he's only played about 150 professional games with his reworked swing. I haven't seen him as much as I'd like obviously, but I think his ceiling is off the charts)
For the sake of small sample sizes and how impossible they are to project, I'm only projecting the hitters who I believe will get enough PA's to fairly evaluate them. And of course this is assuming that Cody Ross, Juan Uribe and Aubrey Huff will all be back in Giants uniforms. In my estimation it looks like the 2011 Giants offense will be much more reliable if they can resign Huff and Uribe, and will gain a much needed dose of improved consistency, provided key contributors stay healthy.
Well... tell me what you all think overall?? Slightly optimistic? Pessimistic? Realistic??? Rec if you approve of my analysis lol
Converse.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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We actually do a whole community projections series during spring training.
Grant’ll post threads for every player, and we all talk about how well we think they’ll do.
My Son
Dursh nerf darsh narf. Poop.
oh i know...
just starting a preliminary early offseason discussion, and some of my personal analysis
Brandon!
Belts one out of here!!
Slow Down!
I don’t think he’s ready for that kind of advanced computing!
by Sigualicious on Nov 18, 2010 11:36 AM PST up reply actions
Every one of those seems pretty close to absolute best case scenario to me. I’m expecting something quite a bit worse from DeRosa in particular.
Thing A
"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud
Yeah, these do seem on the optimistic side of things. If these were the actual numbers of our players, we would have an offensive juggernaut for a lineup with 6 20+ HR hitters. I’m pretty sure Belt will not hit as well as Posey did when he came up since Posey actually spent like three years in the minors while Belt has played 1 year. The homer totals in general for everyone seem a bit high, but I’m hoping your Panda prediction is correct.
Posey technically spent part of three separate years in the minor, but he collected only 750 plate appearances total, so more like 1.5 seasons really. I do think the projections are pretty optimistic. I’d love to see those numbers from the Giants players.
I feel prickishly demanding!
I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.
by giantsfansince1981 on Nov 18, 2010 9:12 AM PST up reply actions
Didn’t we have a team with 6 20+ HR hitters in the early 2000s? Something like Bonds, Kent, Burks, Snow, Santiago, Aurilia?
I was close
1999 had 5 20+ HR hitters—Bonds, Kent, Burks, Snow, Aurilia. Santiago didn’t join the team until 2001.
In 1987 they came very close to being the first team ever to have 10 players with 10+ HRs, a list that included their backup C and backup SS.
They ended up with 9 players in double digits, Clark (35), Davis (24), Maldonado (20), Leonard (19), Brenly (18), Mitchell (15), Melvin (11), Speier (11), Thompson (10), and had two more just barely short, Aldrete (9), and Matt Williams (8).
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
im a bit optimistic, especially for panda
but i tend to like bill james for his projections, and they are quite optimistic too
Brandon!
Belts one out of here!!
Posey: lower AVG, lower SLG, lower HR total
Torres: higher OBP, lower HR total
Sanchez: lower SLG
Huff: lower HR total
Uribe: higher AVG, higher OBP, lower HR total
Ross: lower HR total
Sandoval: lower HR total
DeRosa: lower HR total
Belt: lower AVG, lower OBP, lower SLG, lower HR total
These are very, very optimistic. This would give us one of the best offenses in the NL, with 6/8 regulars exceeding 20 HR. That’s just insane. If these guys performed like this, we’d have an 800 run season, and could probably lose two starters for a significant period of time and still win the division on the back of this offense, its accompany solid to good to great defense, and our strong bullpen. We’d be the most well-rounded team in the majors. I mean, it’s kind of hard to overstate how incredible these numbers would make the Giants relative to the competition when considering all factors, not just offense. If this happens, Brian Sabean should get an extension…
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
accompanying solid to good to great defense
Blargh
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Yes, the home run total added together was way too high.
There's a First for Everything:
Edgar Renteria, The First World Series MVP in Giants History.
I think its very possible...
that posey has a good chance to reach those numbers. and, IF ur going to assume that pablo will bounce back, 21 hr isnt all that high considering he hit 25 in 2009.
and all these hr total numbers by the way represent a fully healthy season for all of the players except derosa, and we all know that wont happen… but if they were to stay healthy the entire year, they’re totals are much closer to reflecting that then what we’re necessarily gonna see on their stat lines at the end of the year.
Brandon!
Belts one out of here!!
and certainly i believe it is going to be an improved offense with a full year of Franchez and Posey, even without the return of Burrell. An improved offense that already had about 167 hr last year in case were forgetting
Brandon!
Belts one out of here!!
162 HR last year
And you’ve got 174 HRs from the top 9 guys. The 2010 Giants got 136 HRs from the 9 most productive players and another 26 from the rest of the bench.
"Guys, here's 20 wins right here" - Aubrey Huff on his red thong
The only players I would really project as ripe for injury are Franchez and DeRosa. Huff, Pablo, Posey, Ross, Uribe, and Torres haven’t had significant injury issues recently, and with the exception of Pablo they’re all in good shape, which tends to diminish injury time.
We did have plenty of bombs last year, but Huff put up a high HR total, Uribe set a career high in dingerz, and Posey was never projected to have that kind of power. That doesn’t mean he won’t turn it on every so often and have a couple years when he hits 25 homers, but projecting it to happen as soon as next year seems a little premature. Give him time. And your HR total from JUST these eight players is already 174. Sandoval will probably hit more next year, but Uribe and Huff almost certainly won’t, and I’d be on Posey’s HR total being closer to this year’s than 26 even though he’ll be in the majors for a full season. If these guys hit this many bombs, we’ll be close to 200 as a team counting 20 or so from part time/backup players. That is a LOT of homers.
21 HR isn’t that high for Pablo considering he hit 25 in ‘09, but it’s pretty high considering he hit 13 in ’10.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Yeesh.
Posey has slugged everywhere he has been. He’s got a very strong base and has legitimate raw power. Why do people keep doubting this?
by BustaTheRippa on Nov 18, 2010 10:00 PM PST up reply actions
25 HR is a lot
Only 40 players hit 25 HR or more last year, and Mike Napoli hit 26 to lead all catchers and be the only C to hit 25 or more. Posey could lead all catchers in homers next year and still not hit 25.
Like I said, I think he will have years where he turns it on and hits 25-30 homers, but I wouldn’t project him for that kind of power on a yearly basis. I think he sits somewhere around 20 homers a year, which is good-not-great power, and great power for a catcher. I’m not saying it’s impossible, just unlikely, and projecting it is rather optimistic considering it’s only his sophomore season and he’ll only be 24.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Especially tough for a catcehr to reach 25 HRs since they sit every 5th game
It’s like a position player hitting 30
The thong is, it happened.
I think we can assume Buster will see some 1B and DH action next year. I wouldn’t be terribly surprised to see him play 150 games.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
agreed mate
I think a lot of us, and even certain scouts, have underestimated Buster Poseys potential in the major leagues. A guy with his body, and swing, can be built for power. And when you put his approach, maturity, and success hitting for power so far on top of that, i think we should all EXPECT more power from Posey. im not saying he’s ever going to hit 35 hr in a season. But i definitely believe he could be a consistent 28-32 hr guy in his prime, and that we are all selling his power short.
Brandon!
Belts one out of here!!
So basically
You expect Buster Posey, a 23 year old with less than a year at the big league level, to produce like a Hall of Famer? 28-32 HR a year (BTW, if he’s sitting at 28-32 HR a year in his prime, you’re predicting at least one 35+ HR season) with a good OBP and .300 average is Pudge Rodriguez/Jorge Posada/Johnny Bench territory. Actually, it’s better than Posada or Rodriguez, and excluding 1970 and 1972, better than Bench. Posey’s been fucking amazing so far, but let’s not count our chickens here.
As far as his swing being built for power, I’d say you’re dead wrong. His swing is built to hit opposite-field line drives; he stays inside the ball and hits it to right field, which is going to be a problem for his power going forward as a RHH at AT&T. It’s also what makes him so successful; it’s hard to jam a player that is able to put the barrel of the bat on an inside fastball. If he starts trying to pull the ball, he’s going to swing and miss a lot, just like what happened at times during the last two months of the season when he was trying to yank everything over the left field fence. His HR total increased, like one would expect when you’re trying to pull the ball, but his average dipped to around .230 during September. Posey can hit for average and good power or hit for a crap average and great power, and I think he’ll go the .300/.380/.470 route as opposed to the .250/.340/.470 route.
Read this post and look at some of the comparisons made to what I’m sure you will consider a very pessimistic prediction, then ask yourself if you really think that we are prepared to say at this point that Buster Posey might just be the best catcher in the history of baseball. Because with the defense he’s shown so far, 28-32 HR a year for 3-4 years would likely put him in that position.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I wouldn't say I expect that total
But I beleive with adjustments and developing his power yes it COULD happen. His swing CAN be built to accompany power. His inside out swing creates incredible backspin on the ball. I see a lot of opposite field dingers In his future. I think we all saw what right field at home did to him this year, he hit a lot of balls that would certainly have been hrs in other parks that died on the warning track. But that actually encourages me. This is a 23 year old kid with a big enough body, and mature enough approach to be able to develop more power. Including to opposite field because of that backspin he creates with his inside out swing. Even if he nvr does hit 28-32 hr in his prime years, the point is I still think were selling his power potential short. A lot of scouts saw him as a 15-20 hr guy in the majors. I think he’s shown he’s already shattered that number when it comes to his ceiling. And hitters with Poseys exceptional maturity and makeup at such a young age are the most likely to reach their ceilings.
Brandon!
Belts one out of here!!
by Vaccaro on Nov 19, 2010 2:23 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
A lot of scouts saw him as a 15-20 HR guy
And while some of them may have revised their predictions, let’s not forget that 15-20 HR doesn’t mean he’ll never hit more than 20 homers in a year, just that 15-20 is going to be his average HR rate per year. I think that’s still reasonable. He missed a couple months this season due to being in Fresno, but even with the extra playing time, he probably wouldn’t have gotten past 25 HR, and his 15.4% HR/FB is probably not sustainable. He certainly hasn’t shattered his ceiling with respect to his power potential; even if he came up and hit 30 HR in four months, I’d hope that most people would go “Okay, that happened, and maybe we’ve bee underestimating him, but let’s see what happens before we start making wild predictions about this guy’s future.”
Also, saying that it could happen is pretty meaningless; Buster COULD become a perennial 40 HR bat. He’s only 23, and he could put on some weight and start pulling the ball more, and hit forty bombs a year. That could happen. But it’s pretty damned unlikely.
He does backspin the ball, which is great when he also generates loft, but he doesn’t do that very often. His 33.1% FB% puts him somewhere close to the bottom in the majors; he doesn’t appear on Fangraphs’ qualifiers list, but if he did, he’d be somewhere around #30 when you sort from lowest FB% to highest. If Posey put the ball in the air more, he’d probably hit more homers, but since fly balls have a much lower BABIP than grounders or line drives, he’d sacrifice quite a bit of average, like I said above.
Point is, Buster Posey is very young, has a lot of potential, and we don’t have enough information at this point to be predicting him to put up a .900 OPS in his sophomore season. Scouts and prospecters are frequently wrong about players, yes, and we and they should always question our current projection, but this is getting into Bryce Harper territory.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Let's face it
The current projection system will never project a catcher to have a 900+ ops in a sophomore season. But that’s also a very good reason why the projection system can be flawed. It’s always on the pessimistic side, when in reality you could project just as optimistic as they do pessimistic, and still be just as close to a players final numbers as they are, or closer. And the system cannot project future superstars or hall of famers. It’s impossible to project that onto a player. And that’s where the system is flawed. It has to be. Because it would be unfair to say a player will live up to such lofty expectations so early in a career. What the system does not use to project, is a players makeup and maturity. And in my perception it is a very overlooked intangible. As Giants fans who have watched this kid make adjustments and how he handles himself, his demeanor, we should be the ones who can add this important intangible in our projections. It should be common sense to assume that a young player with almost once-in-a-generation makeup, at least for a Giants prospect, is more likely to reach their respective ceilings. With the raw talent, ability, and upside Posey already has, with the combination of his makeup and maturity at his age, that is how superstars are made in MLB. I see that in Posey. I’m just sayin, it takes immense talent, perfect makeup, and hard work to make a durable superstar. That is an extremely rare combination, and that is what Posey has. That’s where we need to make adjustments in our projections. And if he does hit near a 900 ops in his 2nd season, I will have known the answer why.
Brandon!
Belts one out of here!!
by Vaccaro on Nov 19, 2010 6:12 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
We need to adjust our projections to the fact that posey has a great chance to reach his ceiling. More so than other prospects
Brandon!
Belts one out of here!!
by Vaccaro on Nov 19, 2010 6:17 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Posey does have a great chance to reach his ceiling
And he may already be there.
Buster Posey is young, projectable, and coming off a great season. He’s got an excellent makeup; he’s a hard worker, he’s smart, and he wants to win. He clearly loves playing baseball, and last season should be the start of a great career.
We could have said the same things about Pablo Sandoval after 2009. The “hard worker” part was perhaps less present, but he did appear to be working pretty hard at Camp Panda before he gained all the weight back. Pablo’s probably not as dedicated as Buster, but he may be a better pure hitter. And now people are wondering whether he should start 2011 in the minor leagues.
Point is, things change. Buster Posey looks like a franchise cornerstone right now, and so did Pablo Sandoval after ‘09. I don’t expect Posey to experience the same sophomore slump as Sandoval, but it’s certainly possible. He didn’t hit very well in September; now, maybe that’s him being tired, or maybe it’s the increasing amount of data on his weaknesses that pitchers are exploiting. And Posey will be able to adjust back (assuming that’s what’s really happening), but how long will that take?
And sure, we could have projected a 1.000 OPS for Pablo after his .900 OPS 2009, and we can be optimistic with projections instead of pessimistic. But we don’t have that much information on Posey yet, so it’s hard to say what he’ll do in the future, and it’s always easier to fail than succeed, which probably has something to do with why projections are usually pessimistic. You can project Posey to have just about the best season he may ever have, but please don’t think it’s likely, because it’s not. I’d call it a less than 20% chance the Posey puts up a .900 or higher OPS next year.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
If his ops is at or above 890
I’d say it’s a succesful projection. I think that Pablo and the giants recent futile history with position players developing as they should has made us even more pessimistic than we should with Buster. Pablos makeup was no where near posey. Sure we might agree it wasn’t necessarily bad in anyway, but it doesn’t compare to Posey. And being a free swinger spells somebody who can be exploited by scouting reports. There’s no such thing as a slump-proof swing, but poseys swing, an inside out swing literally built to hit to all fields with that authority, should be much less prone to slumps and the type of regression we saw from Sandoval in 2010, and his average. As well as Sandovals inferior maturity to that of Poseys. And Posey as actually proven his ability to make adjustments, not to mention at an impressive quickness. I couldn’t have said the same of Sandoval at the end of 2009. The only way I could I have explained his success was by saying he’s a freak. With odd abilities and a natural gift for hitting. But nothing more than that. Posey has proven he is not that. Trust me, he will not be the next Pablo… As long as he stays reasonably healthy
Brandon!
Belts one out of here!!
by Vaccaro on Nov 19, 2010 9:15 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
You’re right that Buster is likely suffering from the crap that’s been spewing out of the system offense-wise, but I think you’re selling Pablo a little short. Buster really is a bright guy who’s consistently shown ability as a leader and a player in the mental areas of the game. But Pablo just loves baseball, and Buster is a little more businesslike. That can hurt Pablo when he isn’t hitting, but it helps him a lot when he is hitting, and it drives him to do better and to get really engaged.
I’m also not sure that it’s fair to say that Pablo can be exploited by scouting reports; I think it’s just the opposite. Disciplined hitters like Posey with consistent swings and great eyes can be exploited by scouting reports; pour over the video, find his holes, and pound them. Good pitching will usually beat Buster. But Pablo is always dangerous; he has had issues with that high fastball, but I think that’s more because he occasionally does hit it, and very hard, so he keeps going after it, and that’s Pablo’s weakness: crappy pitching. Stuff that’s really too far out of the zone to be hittable, except all Pablo sees are the times he takes that pitch and drives it for a double. Pablo is exploited by scouting reports not so much in terms of pitch type and location, which is usually what scouting reports are, but by the general idea of “throw it somewhere crazy”. And he’ll swing at that shoetop-high pitch, because one time he hit a homer on it (seriously, I remember him hitting a…homer, I think, maybe a double, on a pitch that was probably about five inches off the ground). Pablo doesn’t need to make adjustments, he needs to recognize pitches better and realize that yes, he can hit them, and often with authority, but it’s better to wait and make the pitcher throw a better one.
Don’t underestimate Sandoval; when he’s seeing the ball well, he’s easily a better hitter than Posey, because you just can’t beat him. Oh, and Buster posted a .654 OPS in June and a .230 average in September/October. He’s definitely capable of going through an extended slump. Posey’s mental edge will prevent him from slumping as much or as hard as Pablo, but Pablo’s natural ability will produce much higher peaks than Posey. And I also doubt that Posey will have as bad a sophomore season as Pablo because of that edge, but at the same time it’s not going to carry him to a .900 OPS. A ridiculous BABIP or HR/FB might, but Posey’s actual skills aren’t developed enough for that kind of season. I hope I’m wrong, and I’d love to be eating some crow this time next year, but I don’t think I am and I don’t think I will be.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I respect your arguments.
But let’s also not forget that even tho posey hit .230 in September, he still had wat, 7, 8 bombs that month? And in extremely clutch situations. (ex. Mat Latos, 0-0 Cubs game to center, and last game of the season.) even tho his swing was slightly slumping he still found a way to produce at a high level and wen we really needed it. That shows his maturity at the plate, and that says something. And OPS wise when all said and done he actually had a pretty good September.
Brandon!
Belts one out of here!!
by Vaccaro on Nov 20, 2010 1:18 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
September is exactly the point; if he starts trying to pull the ball and hit for power, that’s the type of hitter he’d be. 30 HR a year, but his AVG/OBP would plummet. I’ll sacrifice the 10 homers for fifty points of average and sixty of OBP. His SLG would be about the same anyway with the AVG difference. But if Buster puts up a .900 OPS next year, he can’t have .750 OPS months, because he’d need to counter that with a 1.150 OPS month, and that’s pretty unlikely. And his June was still pretty bad.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
1.050
Ops. But he can still have high obps in months his average is down. That something I think were gona see his biggest improvement in. His walk rate. There’s no reason to believe it’s not going to improve. And I think it can improve significantly. He can have low average months, still take walks and hit for high Ops.
Brandon!
Belts one out of here!!
by Vaccaro on Nov 20, 2010 4:11 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
Miscalculated. And I agree, his walk rate will go up (we saw that in September), but SLG is always BA dependent, so even if he posts high OBPs, when he slumps he probably won’t hit for a high SLG even if he maintains his ISO. If he has low average months, considering he’ll probably post an ISO of .175 or so, then his SLG will be barely above .400. With an OBP around .330 due to the low average (again, OBP is AVG dependent, so if AVG falls, so does OBP), that’s a .730 OPS. Still great numbers for a catcher, but nowhere near the .900 OPS you’re projecting.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Sorry
Should be .730-.760 OPS depending on the SLG (assuming “barely above .400” means .400-.430).
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Buster got BABIP’d pretty hard in September.
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond, Brian Anderson.
Jeremy Affeldt induces strained obliques
by Giant among Angels on Nov 21, 2010 8:42 AM PST up reply actions
His LD% dropped to 9.0% from 21.8% and his FB% skyrocketed from 29.9% to 43.8%. The increase in FB% was responsible for the homers, but you’d expect the low BABIP (though probably not that low) due to the incredibly low LD%. I don’t think I’d call that luck so much as poor hitting. And he got really lucky in July with a .424 BABIP (26% LD%, so that isn’t too out of line, but it’s likely still higher than one would expect), so even if he had been just unlucky, he’d also gotten lucky elsewhere.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Although it's very fair
To say posey could possibly have sub-par months (at least for his standards), first of all I don’t think he will slump as hard, let’s not forget he’s just getting familiar to this league. He will need adjustments, but the point is let’s also not forget he could possibly be one adjustment away from raking at extremely high levels like we saw in July or a 400+ avg. But even when the league adjusted back to Posey, I gotta give him credit for still being able to produce, and still. His ability to make adjustments to every level he’s been in and the speed in which he’s done it, is nothing short if amazing, let alone for a rookie. I think Posey is just so damn smart out there.he knows what he wants and needs to do. Even when he slumped badly in the NLCS before the great hit he had off Oswalt in the late innings. He talked about needing to relax before the game, and grounding himself. He did that successfully and improved immediately. There are guys who have been proven all-stars who have been in the league 10 yrs longer than Posey, and they have trouble relaxing and grounding themselves at the plate when going thru a slump. I don’t know about you but that just blows my mind to see from a 23 old rook out there, especially in the playoffs!
Brandon!
Belts one out of here!!
by Vaccaro on Nov 21, 2010 3:22 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I just can’t emphasize enough what that kind of mental toughness, the ability to make adjustments so well, with the raw upside and talent he already has, what a great career this kid is going to have. How well I think he will do, even in his sophomore season
Brandon!
Belts one out of here!!
by Vaccaro on Nov 21, 2010 3:34 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
That's all well and good
But mental fortitude isn’t the only thing. Posey likely needs ML experience before he can start producing at his potential, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he hasn’t peaked physically yet. Minor league ball is so much worse in terms of toll (traveling in buses instead of planes, staying in crappy hotels, eating junk) and infrastructure (ML teams have a larger and better-trained staff, so his weight training and strength/stamina exercises should be at a higher level and produce better results) that I doubt most players are the best they can be right when the come out of the minors. Posey’s brain is going to carry him farther than a lot of players with more natural ability, just because it is that damned amazing, but this game isn’t just about how hard you work or how good your attitude is or how smart you are. I doubt Posey is physically at the level he needs to be to produce a .900 OPS season.
I also really hope you weren’t suggesting Posey could put up a .400 season. Because he can’t. It’s pretty much impossible at this point; scouting is too good at identifying weaknesses to allow that to happen, and the bullpen specialization isn’t going to help the hitters.
I do think that Posey will have at least one .900 OPS season. I think he’s got it in him to produce at that level for a year, though I think those seasons will be aided by luck in some dimension, but not necessarily in an egregious fashion (he won’t need a .500 BABIP to pull it off, for example). And a .750 OPS month isn’t slumping hard; for a catcher, that’s not even slumping. The average C would love to be able to put up a .750 OPS. But he will need to avoid that kind of thing for the most part if he wants to have a .900 OPS year, and at some point he will, but not next year. It’s just too soon in his development.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I didn't think so
It seemed ridiculous. But that’s how I read it, and I wanted to make sure.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I don't just expect Buster to produce like a HOFer. I expect him to BE a HOFer.
So there!
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
nice analysis
I’d say I’m not as bullish on Uribe as you are, or Posey for that matter. I just think the odds are against him having that good of a season because he is a catcher. He can easily prove me wrong though. I would like to see him take a bit more walks, but overall I loved his plate approach in 2010. I don’t think that Panda is going to see big of an improvement, but he will definetly see an improvement none the less. Unless he is injured or something we don’t know about, there is no way he is going to keep up his 2009. The only thing I can think of is that pitchers learned how to pitch to him.
I definitely expect
Powers walk rate to improve. His minor league numbers and approach would definitely lead me to believe so. The one thing I’ve noticed about many superstars careers, is that there walk rates significantly increase. I believe posey has superstar potential . And his ability to make adjusents encourages me for 2011
Brandon!
Belts one out of here!!
by Vaccaro on Nov 18, 2010 2:38 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
***Poseys***
Walk rate
Brandon!
Belts one out of here!!
by Vaccaro on Nov 18, 2010 2:39 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
You got me all excited the Kenny Powers was going to be a 2011 Giant!!
by VizquelQuest on Nov 18, 2010 1:05 PM PST up reply actions
Your pipe is full. There is joy in mudville.
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Nov 18, 2010 6:26 AM PST reply actions
I think these are pretty optimistic, I would have them as follows.
Posey: .295/.380/.510/ 24 HR’s
Torres: .280/ .340/ .490 22 HR’s
Huff: .285/ .370/ .510/ 24 HR’s
Franchez: .299/ .330/ .400/ 6 HR’s
Uribe: .250/ .300/ .434/ 20 HR’s
Ross: .275/ .325/ .440/ 18 HR’s
Sandoval: .330/ .360/ .500 (In Fresno)
Belt: .290/ .340/. 490/ 15 HR’s
"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja
If Pablo puts that line up in Fresno, he won’t be there long!
My mind ain't nuthin' but a total blank, I think I'll just stay here and draaank - Merle Haggard
by NuschlerFace on Nov 18, 2010 9:09 AM PST up reply actions
Haha
Finally a realistic assessment of Panda’s 2011. He’ll tear up AAA
by tinkerstoeverstochance on Nov 22, 2010 11:52 PM PST up reply actions
Another tough projection: Burrell
If there was some way of knowing what Burrell will do in 2011, it would make Sabean’s job a lot easier.
The thong is, it happened.
Shot in the dark
.240/.345/.440
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
That actually is probably low on the SLG
Make it .240/.345/.460
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
Not Coming Back
Too Much of a liability in the field. DeRosa and Rowand are signed for big bucks, they’ll be playing.
by tinkerstoeverstochance on Nov 22, 2010 11:54 PM PST up reply actions
Welcome on board
Dont be so optimistic. You’re likely to be let down. Also, it’s kind of silly to project offensive mumbers for Huff, Uribe, and Belt, because we have no idea where any of those 3 will be playing their home games next season. Let’s wait for the FA and trade dust to settle before we project them. Finally, projecting Franchez to be healthy for the full year is to neglect the evidence that his body is rapidly-crumbling.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Like Rosterbation
It’s never too early to jump into the projection game. Once the FA dust settles I’ll likely have changed my mind roughly 4 thousand times. Plus, who knows what Mark DeRosa will slip and fall on between now and then.
"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja
by Giant Torture on Nov 18, 2010 11:03 AM PST up reply actions
Wow, everyone seems to be so tough on DeRosa. I think we’re all in for a bit of a surprise, especially around May/June when his wrist reaches close to full strength. If he’s able to turn on a few, he can be a very tough out.
by KrazyKrabMeat on Nov 18, 2010 11:17 AM PST up reply actions
Agreed
He’s being pretty much written off. While I’m not ready to rely on him to carry the offensive load for the Giants, it won’t surprise me to see him make a full comeback and contribute something around a 100 OPS+
The fact that he shut it down pretty early and got the second surgery gives him a lot of time to rehab and strengthen his wrist.
The thong is, it happened.
Meh
DeRosa’s a career .332 wOBA player, with a career wRC+ of exactly 100. He’s nearing forty, and he had a serious wrist issue, which I’d call bad for a person who is better at their job if their wrists are quicker and more flexible. He can be a decent #7 hitter, but I doubt he’ll put up a 100 OPS+.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
DeRosa's history, I see a pattern here
2010-Missed almost entire year with injury.
2009-Spent time on the DL after being traded to the Cards
2007-2008 Offseason-Rushed to the hospital with heart complications, has heart surgery
2006-Missed nearly three weeks due to injury
2005-Missed time due to multiple injuries
DeRosa’s not a bad guy or a bad player, but since he became an everyday player 6 years ago, he has only made it through 2 seasons without a trip to the DL and missed almost an entire one of those years. It’s not being hard on him to say that he gets hurt a lot.
"I signed up for this job, the day I was born" - Brian Wilson, Ninja
by Giant Torture on Nov 18, 2010 12:43 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, speculate away – I have no issue with that. The point I was trying to make was that how can you seriously project a FA’s numbers when you don’t know the team he’s going to sign with? I don’t know about you, but my projections for Uribe and Huff would be significantly different if they were to sign with San Diego or Colorado, just to take extreme examples.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Just project an OPS+ then...problem solved!
I just assumed the OP’s projections assumed they were all Giants…when in fact They Might Be Giants
The thong is, it happened.
If u read everything I wrote...
Then you’d see I wrote “these projections are assuming that huff uribe and Ross are all back on the giants in 11”
Brandon!
Belts one out of here!!
by Vaccaro on Nov 18, 2010 1:19 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
very optimistic
I’d suggest there is a nonzero probability that every single line is worse than those projections. It’s not that these are all crazy, but they uniformly seem 50-100 OPS points high to me.
A word about optimism
None of the individual projections are overly optimistic or unrealistic. You can make arguments for any one of them. But do you seriously think that ALL of them will turn out that well? That nobody will get injured or slump or decline due to age?
There is a very, very, very small chance that all of those projections turn out like that. Let’s say that each of those projections is 80% likely to happen (which is absurdly high). That means there is only a 13% chance that they all happen. It’s just too unrealistic.
Hector Sanchez: Underrated. Fighting body bias since the 2009 off season. I still love you, son, even if you're fat.
Agreed – it’s not the individual projections that strike me as optimistic (even if they are), but the idea that all of them will come true. Of course, projections are generally done on an individual basis, so maybe this makes sense.
I feel prickishly demanding!
I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.
by giantsfansince1981 on Nov 18, 2010 11:47 AM PST up reply actions
I am going to be a dick here but...
In this hobby I’ve realized that I’ve generally had an uncanny knack for projecting position players and what they are going to do at the plate.
Care to back this up? Just Giants or players you follow, or all MLB?
Brian Sabean: Sing His Praises To The Heavens!
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game that seems to have resurrected itself in my absence...
Players I follow.
My family and friends are always coming to me to ask wat I think specific players are going to do. I admit I’m not necessarily following Emilio Bonifacio out there. But all giants, and some more recognized names yea. And once again…
These projections reflect a fully healthy season from the regulars. And that’s not gonna happen. But if it did that’s wat the numbers reflect.
Brandon!
Belts one out of here!!
by Vaccaro on Nov 18, 2010 1:23 PM PST via mobile up reply actions
I will wait to pull number out of jcb’s ass until Grant tells me to do so.
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond, Brian Anderson.
Jeremy Affeldt induces strained obliques
by Giant among Angels on Nov 18, 2010 1:21 PM PST reply actions
just don’t confuse me with him. It’s a snug fit.
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
The baseball gods do not always punish the wicked but they will not just allow people to spit in their faces -- Joe Posnanski
I wish I would stop cheating. fuck. this is jctgamer's fault -- jponry
More than optimistic
Huff and Uribe are free agents and may not even be on the team.
Although I project stats in my mind everyday, multiple times, I do
think it is a tad premature to seriously post projections for next
year at this time. It is fun, but November projections are not to
be taken seriously. If you go back 1 year ago, what were your
projections for Bowker? If I’m San Diego I am looking to
pittsburgh to make a trade for Bowker.
Projecting FAs makes sense to me
Especially when you’re trying to decide how hard the team should go after them
The thong is, it happened.
Welcome!
Will you be continuing to refer to yourself in the third person?
2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 19, 2010 4:37 PM PST reply actions
Really optimistic IMO.
I’m kinda pessimistic, or maybe just realistic:
Buster Posey: .297/.365/.492 w/ 20 HR
Andres Torres: .262/.338/.444 w/ 12 HR
Freddy Sanchez: .277/.331/.396 w/ 6 HR
Aubrey Huff: .280/.356/.461 w/ 18 HR
Juan Uribe: .255/.311/.422 w/ 15 HR
Cody Ross: .265/.324/.462 w/ 19 HR
Pablo Sandoval: .284/.345/.467 w/ 16 HR
Mark DeRosa: .256/.320/.385 w/ 5 HR (limited playing time)
Brandon Belt: .267/.339/.436 w/ 9 HR (midseason call-up & gets around 300 AB’s)
by AmorVincitOmnia on Nov 21, 2010 4:29 PM PST reply actions
somewhere in between
amor and vaccaro:
Torres more than 12 but less than 25 HR
Freddy closer to .299 BA
Huff drop off seems reasonable
Uribe will hit more than 15 HR! He can hit them to RF now haha…
Pablo? I don’t see Pablo starting the season in the bigs…he couldn’t field his position in playoffs
DeRosa who knows, but .256 BA is pessimistic!
Posey, I think Amor is about right. About Belt too.
I still think we can hit 96 W’s, with a whole season of Posey, Ross, Bumgarner, and not hoping to get water from a stone with Rowand. Zito could surprise from the # 5 spot, no pressure. Our X W-L was 94 this year.
by tinkerstoeverstochance on Nov 22, 2010 11:50 PM PST reply actions
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