Fangraphs: Teams should try and buy low on Sandoval
In the comments DrB asks who says no between a Sandoval for Gordon Beckham offer. I would personally love that trade.
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Gobroks
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oof... that's tricky
I love Panda… but I also really liked Beckham coming out in the draft (he was the guy I wanted if Posey and Smoak were both gone) and think he’s got a bright future.
I guess I’d do that deal… and to a certain degree it makes sense for both sides. Panda’s weight would be less of a problem in the AL, and also the White Sox might be looking for both a 1B and a catcher, depending on what happens with Konerko and Pierzynski. Beckham, meanwhile, could probably handle third long term and would be a great fit in a lineup with Belt and Posey… Panda has the higher ceiling, but Beckham’s the surer bet. I guess I’d do it and cringe.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 12, 2010 4:50 PM PST reply actions
you know what, I take it back
I wouldn’t do it. Love Panda too much and don’t want to give up on him yet. Not sure if it’s irrational or no, but screw it, keep Pablo.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 12, 2010 4:52 PM PST up reply actions
It's irrational
And I agree. Keep Pablo.
2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 12, 2010 6:34 PM PST up reply actions
its not irrational, Beckham has been quite a bit worse than Pablo both years.
Thing A
"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud
Exactly.
Beckham had 0.9 WAR this year, and Sandoval had 1.9 WAR. Sandoval had 5.3 WAR in 2009 while Beckham had 2.2 WAR in 2009.
I can understand that Beckham has upside and that he can become a good player… But Sandoval has just simply outperformed Beckham at the game of baseball.
And I’d bet money that Sandoval continues to outperform Beckham for the near future.
People just seem to be overrating him because he was a 1st round draft pick.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Nov 13, 2010 9:15 PM PST up reply actions
They've got Dayan Viciedo to be a fat infielder
I doubt they’re looking at 1B and DH with him and Konerko probably coming back.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
Viciedo just posted a .308 OBP in AAA. Not sure he’s ready to make the leap to the bigs next year and it may well be a couple years if ever before he’s ready.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 12, 2010 9:48 PM PST up reply actions
I think it'd make sense for us
But I have too much irrational love for Panda to actually follow through with that. And I still can’t convince myself that his 09’ season was a fluke, especially for a 23 year old.
Gordon Beckham
will probably be a very good player. But under no circumstances should Pablo Sandoval be traded before the season starts.
Like the Fangraphs article states, he’s just a year removed from a .396 wOBA season. He played like a star player. You have to give him at least another year to see what kind of player he really is.
What I took from that article is that it’s ridiculous that the Giants would sell low on a player that was so great last year. Just like it’d be ridiculous for the teams of the 3 other young players to trade them.
by 8thInningWeirdness on Nov 12, 2010 6:25 PM PST reply actions
Of course
If he continues to tank and Beckham turns it on, you wouldn’t be able to make this trade. Ideally, we should know what type of player he is now; was last year a fluke, or 2009? Is his weight going to be a problem in the future? Does he have the self-control to get in shape and stay in shape if it is?
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I'd argue that
it’s not easy to know what kind of player you have when he’s had 2 very different years. Beckham isn’t enough of a great player or a sure thing to be trading Sandoval for him.
by 8thInningWeirdness on Nov 12, 2010 11:21 PM PST up reply actions
Absolutely
This is a very tough call to make. Professional baseball front office guys should be able to make it. We probably shouldn’t.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
I would argue that makes the trade easier from the Giants perspective
I feel that Beckham is more likely to repeat his 09 season than Sandoval his 09 year.
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
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*That being said Sandoval is obviously better than his past year
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
Sandoval doesn't have to repeat his 2009 season to be the clearly better player.
He just has to play to his career averages and avoid moving to 1B (or needing to move there despite still playing 3B).
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Unless I’m mistaken, Pablo’s younger and has outperformed Beckham in each of the past two seasons by most measures. Yes, even last season. Not to mention he has more power ability & potential and even walks more than Beckham.
I’ll keep Panda.
by BestHyperboleEver on Nov 12, 2010 7:04 PM PST reply actions
Keep Pablo
Too much upside. Despite the weight, he did drop pounds at Camp Panda last year, just gained it all back in Venezuela, and I think if he continues to struggle a move to Fresno will be forthcoming and that’ll get his head in the game. A .320 hitter with solid defense and 20-25 HR a year at third is too good to pass up, and his presence is very important to the fans.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to WIN that (TM)
even if the giants wanted to
they couldn’t, he’s worth too much in marketing alone
"You need to get real!"
This Just In...
Giants overleveraged by Panda Hats
can they keep selling them if Pablo gets sent to the minors?
I could be wrong, but I feel like there’s a big chunk of the demographic that buys the Panda hats that does so because they like the hats more than because they love Pablo…
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 12, 2010 11:51 PM PST up reply actions
At the plate Pablo’s good 2010 season was a lot better than Beckham’s good 2010 season and his bad 2009 season was still a lot better than Beckham’s bad 2009 season. Pablo hasn’t been great defensively, but he hasn’t been nearly as bad as most people make him out to be and its not like Beckham is Brooks Robinson. I don’t really see any reason to make this deal.
Thing A
"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud
by sam23 on Nov 12, 2010 9:25 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
In this line
Unless Gordan started play SS well when i was not looking
/ wanders over to B-R page
No, didn’t think so. A Guy taht can play 3rd and some C is worth more at this point than a guy thta just plays 2nd or 3rd.
The Giants are 2010 World Series Champs. … And in other news the forecast calls for a rain of toads, heavy at times, with moderate to strong swarms of locust and a high likelihood of a world quake. Details at 11.
Beckham has Kevin Frandsen numbers right now.
I just cant give up on Panda 1 yr removed for hitting .330
Its funny because fuck the dodgers
The good thing is that we are saved from agonizing over this decision because Brian Sabean won’t do it. He’s not trading the popular Panda after winning it all.
Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees because he wants to win the World Series. Wait, what???
by rxmeister on Nov 13, 2010 4:53 AM PST via mobile reply actions
Panda has too much potential
He underperformed in 2010. His number the past two years have been a lot better than Beckham’s. No reason to trade a potential star in Sandoval when he’s under contract for the next four years.
No to Panda for Beckham, but Panda for Rasmus? Yes please.
Thing A
"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud
Cards wouldn't do it
Where do they play Sandoval if he can’t stay at third? 1B is pretty much locked down for them (unless Pujols leaves via FA after this season which I really, sincerely doubt will happen).
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 13, 2010 2:35 PM PST up reply actions
I really don’t get why there is SO much concern about Pablo sticking at 3B. He hasn’t been that bad there, and a move back to catcher is also still possible. I also doubt the Cardinals would make that deal straight up, but I think its closer to a fair deal for them than Beckham for Pablo is for us.
Thing A
"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud
not on this team it's not
Posey is the catcher here, and Yadier Molina is pretty deeply entrenched in St. Louis as the starter.
I hear you on Pablo’s defense at third— it hasn’t been terrible… yet. But there’s no question that he began to wear down as the season went along this past year and his defense went downhill. If he doesn’t get in better shape that’s only going to be more of a problem going forward.
Not saying he’s the kind of guy who can ONLY play first, but what I am saying is that he’d probably be more attractive to a team that had openings at 1B/C/DH as well as at 3B because there’s no guarantee he’ll stick there. With the Cardinals, none of those other spots are really open.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 14, 2010 12:42 AM PST up reply actions
I’d trade Sandoval for Beckham in a New York minute. I just don’t think Kenny Williams is stupid enough to do it, unfortunatey for us.
Pablo is a catcher, who we’ve moved to 3B. That was a reasonable move, and Pablo was reasonable at 3B. But he’s not the long-term answer there, and it seems that Conor Gillaspie isn’t either. And the Giants seem unwilling to move Buster to 3B (where he belongs) to save his knees. So, Gordon could be the heir apparent at third, and I’m still not convinced he can’t play SS. Either way, I see him as an improvement over Sandoval.
"(Christy) Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball. The first statement means the same as the second." - Damon Runyon
but Pablo's been SIGNIFICANTLY better over the last 2 years
and is the same age. Why would this be a good idea?
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
seriously
look at the numbers, it’s not even fucking close
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
I think Beckham could still play a decent short
I just have never been a fan of the bat (beyond solid-average).
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
he’s not a great defensive 2B or 3B, why do you think he could play ss?
Thing A
"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud
whoa whoa whoa
I’m not going to disparage your Beckham comments, because like I said above, I really like his potential, too. But Posey is a catcher. Period.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 14, 2010 12:44 AM PST up reply actions
Panda for Beckham. i would do that so fast
"I dont always hit home runs, but when I do, I prefer World Series winning home runs"
why?
Thing A
"Correlation between inability to use the reply button and general crappiness of analysis: pretty high." -Sleepy Freud
At the risk of speaking for CB30, I would say that I don’t believe in Sandoval’s conditioning or hitting, going forward. I think 2009 was the outlier in his statistical career, and if the Giants don’t use him as a catcher, I don’t see much value to him being on the roster. Given that, Gordon Beckham (although it’s still mostly “potential”) could be a very useful commodity in the future – he could be a SS with some hitting ability, or perhaps a 2B with the same. I still think Crawford will be our SS, but there aren’t any clear favorites to inherit our middle-infield positions in SF. As such, getting another potential prospect there, and giving up someone I don’t believe in, would be a net gain.
Again, that may or may not be CB30’s position.
"(Christy) Mathewson pitched against Cincinnati yesterday. Another way of putting it is that Cincinnati lost a game of baseball. The first statement means the same as the second." - Damon Runyon
I really think we’re seeing a serious “grass is always greener” case here. Pablo has shown both better past performance and better potential.
Beckham doesn’t even look to be significantly better in the categories Pablo is considered weakest. He doesn’t walk more. Nor does he play markedly better defense.
Even in Pablo’s reviled 2010 season he was much better than Beckham .
I see zero evidence to suggest Beckham is the better player now or will be the better option through the end of their arbitration years.
by BestHyperboleEver on Nov 13, 2010 4:45 PM PST reply actions
this
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
EXACTLY.
Really don’t understand why fans aren’t seeing this.
Are they just blinded by 26 double plays or something?
Jeebuzz… Get some perspective people.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Nov 13, 2010 9:22 PM PST up reply actions
we need to remind ourselves that Pablo is capable of doing things like this:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SFN/SFN200906150.shtml
I was at that game, and even though the Giants lost, 9-7, I distinctly remember feeling almost giddy leaving the park. Pablo had done something that we hadn’t seen a Giants player other than Bonds do in years— he’d dominated and single handedly changed a game offensively in a way that didn’t just seem to be a fluky sample size thing. He really was that good. He turned what had been an Angels laugher into a closer shave than it had any right to be, and he did it by virtue of being confident, aggressive, and possessing sheer raw talent that had to be seen to be believed.
As I left the park, I wasn’t thinking “The Giants lost.” No, I was thinking “They did it. They developed a hitter. A real, honest to God, superstar and he’s ours.” I couldn’t stop smiling at that all the way home.
It’s become too easy, for me at least, to forget about that Pablo. That guy who was a light at the end of a long, dark tunnel of Giants prospect failure. It’s depressing to think that we might not see that guy again, or that someone with that amount of talent could be in real danger of eating his way out of the Major Leagues. But I can’t give up on him, and the Giants shouldn’t either. Because if he gets it right, it will be a beautiful, beautiful thing.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 14, 2010 12:51 AM PST up reply actions
Sure...
He goes deep twice off two crapsack bullpen guys and that rates him a mention in the same breath as Bonds.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
"You never wake up the baby." - E. Renteria, 01 August 2010
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
by S.F. Giangst on Nov 14, 2010 1:20 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
he had an amazing game
almost went deep off of lackey in the first— it was very nearly 3 home runs. More than that though it was the moment— it was that sense of being in the crowd and thinking there’s no way he could do it again, is there? Followed by awe as he does it.
It’s that awe that I really remember. And if that means that in that context he gets mentioned in the same breath as Bonds? I think we can live with that. They’re not the same player, and Pablo will never be near as good as Barry ever was. But Sandoval has great talent. Bonds had great talent. See what I did there? Same breath. Now true, Barry also had historically, epically, unfathomably great talent. I would not go that far for Pablo. But in certain contexts you can mention them in the same breath and the universe doesn’t collapse on itself, yes?
And you know what? .330/.387/.556 from a 22 year old is something to get excited about. If it was a fluke, we can all be sad. But the way we felt about him in 2009 wasn’t a mirage. He was that good. Let’s hope he can be again.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Nov 14, 2010 2:50 AM PST up reply actions
Bonds at 22 - .261/.329/.492
Not that I’m saying Pablo will have a Bondsian career, or even that the slash line is the whole story, but his 2009 was fucking good.
2010 World Series Champions!
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Nov 14, 2010 10:06 AM PST up reply actions
If it's so easy
then crappy hitters like Andy LaRoche should be doing it.
And players like Edgar Renteria (homerun off Cliff Lee OMG) are the truly great hitters.
Pablo did it against major league pitching. That’s ALL that should matter.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Nov 14, 2010 5:54 PM PST up reply actions
Don't Bend It Like Beckham
Just looked up his stats, serious DNW for a direct swap of Pablo! I know Pablo’s hitting approach this year was very bad but I’d stick with him. All he has to understand is that pitchers have learned not to throw a lot of strikes at him so he should just sit back, blow some bubble yum and wait for 1 or 2 particular pitches/locations only every at bat. For those 26 or so DPs he hit into, the Giants might have been able to squeeze a few runs through if he struck out looking half of those 26 PAs instead.
I know it is easier said than done especially for Pablo but I hope that is what they will work on this offseason and into spring training. I’ll gladly take a 2011 season where he hits between what he did for 09 and 10 (~.300 BA,~.350 OBP, ~20 dingers).
/Win the inning
//Renteria - Still not a VD but I crush a lot
///Willism is Realism
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