Second-Guess: Where Was Affeldt?
by BruteSentiment on Oct 9, 2010 10:08 AM PDT
Email
PrintIt was the question I asked my two best friends when the Beard was called from the bullpen in the eighth. And now, after reading all the initial post-game stories, and not seeing his name, I’m asking it again.
Where is Affeldt? And why is no one asking about it?
That felt wrong. That’s an opinion.
But Jeremy Affeldt has been one of the team’s key eighth inning men for two seasons, even with struggles and injuries this season. He’d had one of his best months in September. And he’d been up briefly in the bullpen earlier. But he wasn’t up in the eighth.
Maybe this is all second-guessing, but:
• Two switch-hitters were up when Wilson came in. The first, Melky Cabrera, hit 30 points lower as a right-handed batter, and had an OPS of 40 points less. The next, Brooks Conrad, had a better average as a right-handed batter, but significantly less power and a (very) slightly lower OPS.
• Affeldt has an OPS allowed of 30 points lower against right-handed batters.
• Cabrera had a track record of 2-for-7 against Affeldt. Not bad, but not good. He had almost no track record against Wilson, gaining a walk in his only appearance. Conrad had no track record against either.
• Unlike Wilson, Affeldt has playoff experience, and was not about to be in his first playoff game. In fact, his first ever postseason appearance in 2007, he came in with the bases loaded, and got out of the inning.
This seems like basic math to me. Putting in Affeldt had the numbers behind it as well as the intangibles. Wilson was amped up, and gave up contact, both weak and strong, to the first few hitters he faced. It arguably cost the Giants the game.
Now, I’m not Bochy’s biggest fan. At all. I’m not saying he should be fired over this one game. And a lot of people didn’t perform in this game, from Sergio Romo to Buster Posey, that affected the result. But this particular decision looks to me like a mental gaffe on the level of a baserunning error or letting a ball go under a glove.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
35 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I would have put Affeldt in instead of Romo in the 8th
Since IIRC, the first two batters Romo faced were both lefties.
Nah. Romo faced Derrek Lee first. Not to mention he has strong splits vs both lefties and righties – to the point where posters here are often angry when Romo/Lopez share innings in a ROOGY/LOOGY fashion.
This isn’t 2009 Affeldt either – he’s serviceable but I definitely trust Romo with the 8th.
I would have put Affeldt in after Romo gave up the hit to Derrek Lee. Not only is McCann a lefty, he’s a slider hitter. Romo’s 5 pitches to Lee weren’t bad, but they weren’t amazing either. It has to be a combination of a short leash and playing the matchups.
by 24 Willie Mays Plaza on Oct 9, 2010 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Yep
That was the time to use Affeldt. Brute, it felt wrong to me, too, at the time. For his first post-season appearance, I would much rather have given Wilson a clean inning (i.e., starting the ninth). I’m glad someone else thought the same thing.
Jose Guillen isn’t one of the best 90 outfielders in baseball. (Grant, 09-11-10)
I did not see any major problems with the way Bochy handled the bullpen last night. So it unraveled, well tough luck. The only thing I’d like to have happened was to warm up Casilla along with Wilson after Romo was put in. I really wish we could still count on Affeldt to get a GIDP whenever we wanted to though. Sandoval’s error really cost us.
I didn’t have a problem with Bochy either, but I was surprised that McCann didn’t see a lefty all night long.
Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees.
by rxmeister on Oct 9, 2010 12:29 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
I agree
We actually discussed this rather pointedly in section 325 last night.
Affeldt has pitched in the PLAYOFFS before! Everyone made mention about ‘nerves’ with the starting pitchers, somehow nobody thought there would be butterflies with the relievers?
I love Romo, I don’t fault Bochy for brining him in. But I would’ve had Affeldt ready if Romo looked unsteady – and the way they were teeing off I’d have brought him in.
And Wilson — you ask the kid to get SIX OUTS in his playoff debut? Really?
Affeldt and Mota have been there before. I wouldn’t have let either of them blow it up, but one would think they would’ve combined to at least get one or two outs and then not have to ask BW to get SIX for crying out loud.
meh.
Charlie Hayes ate my homework
by glenallen hill's waterpipe on Oct 9, 2010 1:26 PM PDT reply actions
I think the six-out save is being overblown
There’s no rle that said Wilson had to stay in after getting them out of the most high-leverage situation of the game.
Could have brought in Affeldt to pitch the “clean” 9th if Wilson was spent
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
Excellent point you dancing machine. Though I’m not sure that Bork would’ve played it that way.
Charlie Hayes ate my homework
by glenallen hill's waterpipe on Oct 9, 2010 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Bochy let Wilson rack up saves in the regular season
I don’t think save stats would have mattered last night. he was managing it like a playoff game, which it was.
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
Agreed. I guess I was swayed by Wilson’s quotes in the game article about “have to get six outs there” – guess that’s just his mindset and not necessarily Bochy’s gameplan.
Charlie Hayes ate my homework
by glenallen hill's waterpipe on Oct 9, 2010 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions
there’s always been proponents of the theory that you shouldn’t save your closer for the ninth inning. If the heart of the order is due up in the eighth, you bring in your top reliever there, and then you can close it out against the bottom of the order with a lesser reliever. You should also do the same to set up a lefty-righty situation for yourself. Suppose your closer is lefty Billy Wagner and you’re facing the Phillies and they have Utley and Howard due up in the eighth. Do you really bring in Saito and save Wagner for the ninth? This is common sense, yet I don’t know a single manager who does this. They all read from the same outdated book.
Getting back to last night. An innovative manager would bring in WIlson to start the eighth, and then assuming he gets the job done, he can go righty lefty with guys like Romo, Affeldt and Ramirez in the ninth. If Wilson gets through the eighth easily, he can even keep him in for the ninth.
Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees.
This is exactly what I was thinking would happened had Wilson gotten us out of the eighth. I don’t know why everyone assumes Wilson would have pitched the 9th as well; Ramirez picked up a save a couple weeks ago against the D’backs when Wilson had been overused, and Affeldt and Casilla are solid 9th inning options as well. Bochy clearly showed he knew what he was doing when he put Wilson into the game; he was using his best reliever in the highest-leverage situation, and there’s no reason to think he would then return to the traditional “closer HAS TO pitch the 9th” playbook when he had just basically burned it.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)
It wasn't so much the Romo thing that felt wrong, and I thought he got jobbed on a called strike which could have made a difference.
But the only thing I can state for sure in total agreement, is that it felt wrong.
Also I was discussing with my brother right before the game winning dinger.
that I was not happy with Ramirez pitching to this guy, if he puts one in the
friendly zone this guy has serious homerun power, and as the workds were
coming out of my mouth, the guy hit a long homerun. It is interesting that
Mr. Swing for the homerun Uribe, in the bottom of the 11th, actually went
for a hit. I wish he would do that sometime with runners in scoring position.
Giants had multiple opportunities to win the game. I hope that they can
come back from this game and win in Atlanta.
Bochy absolutely did the right thing game-long. He took Cain out when his pitch count started getting up and he started getting into trouble. He put Romo in as a setup guy, the role he traditionally plays and has excelled in. He put Wilson in when the game was on the line, as he should have, and opposed to the La Russa method of only putting the closer in the ninth and therefore effectively wasting him. He allowed Wilson to pitch two innings even after giving up the lead when it was clear he was still okay to keep going. He kept Ramirez in the game after throwing only 9 pitches in the previous inning, and I’m sure everyone predicted that RICK ANKIEL would hit a home run into the freakin’ bay, because having him go two innings meant that he would still have a few relievers left while the Braves burned their entire pen.
It’s ridiculous to suggest that he should have seen Romo giving up two hits after being dominant. It’s ridiculous that he should have seen Cabrera hit that weak bouncing ball for a swinging bunt couple with a Sandoval sort-of error for a “hit”. It’s ridiculous to believe that RICK ANKIEL of the .232 BA and .328 SLG with Atlanta would blast one to deep left. It’s ridiculous to think that Posey would hit into an inning-ending double play started by Troy Glaus, Third Baseman when a sac fly would have won the game after a 2-4 night on Thursday.
I’m no Bochy apologist, and I do think he’s generally a subpar manager. But he did everything right that game, and it didn’t matter because our most important, most reliable players didn’t come through (Huff 0-4, Torres 0-4 though with a lot of line drive outs, etc.). Bochy absolutely, in no way lost that game last night, and if he had done things differently and we had won, we would have won in spite of his moves and not because of them. As it was, the loss was horrible, and yeah, I’d rather have the win even if it comes with poor managing, but big picture, doing what might have saved the game on a consistent basis would lead to a lot more losses than wins.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)
IAWTC
24 hours later, there’s really nothing different I would have done from Bochy, aside from burning Fontenot as a defensive player for a freaking half-inning. (If Bochy didn’t expect Wagner to come in the following inning, there’s something seriously wrong with him.) But the Fontenot move ended up not making a difference.
Game 2 was lost because an unfortunately large number of Giants players picked Friday night to have their worst games in weeks. They just didn’t come through. Nothing more, nothing less.
"I could hear the angry MCC cacophany in my head."--Oldjacket, 7/4/10
Better Second guesses, IMO
1. Why is Pablo still on the field, he’s a bigger defensive liability than Burrell and gives zero return with the bat?
2. Why burn Fontenot to play a half inning of defense?
3. Why pull Cain after 7 when he was dealing, after not pulling Timmy the night before?
I HATE YOU PABLO!
Giants Front Office....Torture!
I think the fist two are very good questions
by FluLikeSymptoms on Oct 9, 2010 9:32 PM PDT up reply actions
I think the second is easy to answer.
Bochy did not expect the Braves to go to Wagner to start the bottom of the 10th in a tie game. He expected the Braves to hold Wagner back until they had a lead. The Braves decision to go to Wagner then ment they were willing to try to get six outs from him just like Bochy tried to get six outs from Wilson. Fontonot as opposed to Renteria was double switched in because Bochy expected Farnsworth to be pitching. The Braves decision to go to Wagner then was and should of been unexpected. But it was not unplanned for. The Giants still had Renteria available and they correctly then went to Renteria to PH for Fontonot..
by BornRaisedAGiant on Oct 9, 2010 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions
I, for one, expected Wagner in the bottom of the 10th. In fact, there were two outs in the bottom of the 9th before I realized it wasn’t Wagner pitching. I figured the Braves were treating Game 2 like the playoff game it was, not some extra-inning affair in the regular season. In the latter case, you wait until you have the lead to bring in Wagner. In the former, you bring in your best reliever. So there should not have been any surprise.
"I could hear the angry MCC cacophany in my head."--Oldjacket, 7/4/10
When there is a day off the next day there is really no difference between regular season and post season.
In both cases you do what gives you the best chance to win. Yes, I too would of gone with Wagner in either case and the Giants were prepared for this to happen as they still had Renteria available. But, the Braves usage of Wagner previously including down the stretch when the were already in essence in playoff mode made expecting Wagner the wrong expectation. The Giants played this right, the expected Farnsworth but were ready for Wagner.
by BornRaisedAGiant on Oct 9, 2010 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions
“When there is a day off the next day there is really no difference between regular season and post season.”
Yes, there is a huge difference — it’s called urgency.
Oh, and this isn’t helping your argument:
“I too would of gone with Wagner”
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Oct 11, 2010 12:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Cain's dealing was not anywhere near the level of Lincecum's dealing the night before.
Going to a lefty with men on base in the 7th to get Heyward was the right move but I would have used Affeldt then and saved Lopez for McCann.
by BornRaisedAGiant on Oct 9, 2010 10:58 PM PDT up reply actions
not only that, but Matt Cain batted in the bottom of the seventh, so the Giants hit for him. If he stayed in the game he would have been on a very short leash. If you’re going to pull him if he allows a baserunner, it makes sense to hit for him in the seventh and try to score more runs.
Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees.
I’ve got no problem with how the pitching was used, although I do wonder if Cain didn’t have a few batters left in him.
My question is… would the world have exploded if Buster had tried to bunt in the 10th inning? Yes, I’m serious. Glaus looked shaky fielding Renteria’s bunt and Farnsworth is a fairly awful fielder.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
"You never wake up the baby." - E. Renteria, 01 August 2010
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
I think S.F.Giangst is talking about a suicide squeeze.
by BornRaisedAGiant on Oct 9, 2010 7:41 PM PDT up reply actions
Safety squeeze. Glaus was back far enough that Renteria could have waited to see the ball bounce or at least a downward trajectory off the bat before breaking for the plate.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
"You never wake up the baby." - E. Renteria, 01 August 2010
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
It’s hard to safety squeeze with the bases loaded. The runner has to go, even if it’s a crappy bunt. The only thing a safety squeeze does there is prevent an out if the batter misses. I think the idea of a bunt is pretty silly there with your best hitter at the plate. He hit into a DP, it happens. If Barry Bonds hit into a DP there would people be saying he should have bunted? Posey is not only your best hitter, but he’s a smart hitter as well. You expect him to have a good at bat there and wait for a pitch up that he could drive into the outfield.
Buster Posey: Let's enjoy him before he goes to the Yankees.
A “smart hitter” shows the bunt on the first pitch and gets everybody thinking. If he draws Glaus in a step, maybe the play goes differently, maybe the pitch sequence gets changed.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
"You never wake up the baby." - E. Renteria, 01 August 2010
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
by S.F. Giangst on Oct 11, 2010 3:03 AM PDT up reply actions
I would have used Affeldt against Heyward in the 7th and saved Lopez for McCann/Cabrera/Conrad.
This means Romo only pitches to Lee with Wilson not coming in until Gonzalez. That said, I have no problem with Bochy asking Wilson to get 6 outs to protect a 3 run lead with two baserunners already aboard. In fact, without Sandoval’s error Wilson would have succeeded.
by BornRaisedAGiant on Oct 9, 2010 7:37 PM PDT reply actions
It was the right call to bring in Wilson
He is the best reliever in we have in a situation that calls for the best reliever we have.
Like someone said earlier, I don’t know why the “closer” doesn’t pitch the eighth if the heart of the order is coming up. Good call by Botchy, and I’m willing to bet everything would have worked out if Pablo hadn’t made the error
Interesting to see so many smart posters with so many opinions about the bullpen management. That suggests to me that these decisions were marginal and we shouldn’t fret too much about them. Anyway, I would’ve (1) started the eighth with Wilson. (2) Given that it was Romo instead, I would’ve given him the chance to work out of his jam. (3) Once Wilson, Romo, and Lopez are burnt, the next pitcher out of the pen has to be Casilla. Ramirez, despite his ERA, is the sixth- or seventh-best relief pitcher on the team, and it sucks to lose with that guy on the mound when he doesn’t have to be. After Casilla, I’d be seriously considering bringing in Bumgarner.
The defensive replacements generally drive me nuts, but that actually seemed like a good spot for it.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on McCovey Chronicles
Related FanShots on McCovey Chronicles
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
