Giants vs Rangers, Game #5 World Series - Simulation
by Xeifrank on Oct 31, 2010 11:52 PM PDT
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PrintI used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Giants and the Rangers using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to the actual starting lineups. The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined. The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis. There are many references to Vegas win probabilities. This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does. This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games. You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores. This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last. Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon. Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.
Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Sunday at 11:30 PM PST)
| Visitors | Home | Pitching Matchup | Favorite | Vegas Win Prob | Simulator Win Prob | AccuScore |
| SF | TEX | T.Lincecum vs C.Lee | TEX | 62.26% | 57.96% | 70% |
Notes: Vegas and the Simulator matching up a little better in Game #5 than they did in Game #4. The oddsmakers are still weighting the Rangers chances of winning the game more so than the Giants chances. I suppose most of the bettors feel that the Rangers will be tough to close out with Cliff Lee on the mound. The AccuScore operators have been smoking some of that medicinal pot. Get your game score and over/under guesses in below.
Over/Under Questions:
1. Total runs scored both teams: 5.5
2. Cliff Lee total strikeouts: 7.5
3. Rangers total bases minus Giants total bases: 2.5
4. Tim Lincecum total number of pitches: 106.5
5. Number of half innings scored in, combined both teams: 3.5
Sample Answer: UOOUU
Top 150 Most Likely Scores
| 1 TEX 3-2 | 51 TEX 8-3 | 101 TEX 11-3 | ||
| 2 TEX 4-3 | 52 SF 7-5 | 102 TEX 10-0 | ||
| 3 TEX 2-1 | 53 SF 7-2 | 103 TEX 10-6 | ||
| 4 TEX 5-4 | 54 SF 5-0 | 104 SF 9-0 | ||
| 5 SF 3-2 | 55 TEX 8-4 | 105 TEX 9-7 | ||
| 6 SF 4-3 | 56 TEX 8-7 | 106 TEX 11-5 | ||
| 7 SF 2-1 | 57 SF 7-1 | 107 SF 11-4 | ||
| 8 TEX 4-2 | 58 TEX 7-0 | 108 SF 11-3 | ||
| 9 TEX 3-1 | 59 TEX 8-1 | 109 SF 9-8 | ||
| 10 SF 4-2 | 60 SF 8-2 | 110 TEX 12-3 | ||
| 11 SF 3-1 | 61 SF 8-3 | 111 SF 11-2 | ||
| 12 TEX 5-3 | 62 TEX 8-5 | 112 SF 10-6 | ||
| 13 TEX 4-1 | 63 SF 8-4 | 113 TEX 12-2 | ||
| 14 TEX 5-2 | 64 TEX 9-2 | 114 SF 11-1 | ||
| 15 TEX 6-5 | 65 TEX 9-3 | 115 TEX 10-7 | ||
| 16 SF 5-4 | 66 SF 8-1 | 116 TEX 10-9 | ||
| 17 TEX 1-0 | 67 TEX 9-1 | 117 SF 10-7 | ||
| 18 SF 5-3 | 68 SF 6-0 | 118 TEX 12-1 | ||
| 19 SF 5-2 | 69 SF 8-5 | 119 SF 11-5 | ||
| 20 SF 4-1 | 70 TEX 8-6 | 120 TEX 12-4 | ||
| 21 TEX 2-0 | 71 SF 8-6 | 121 SF 12-3 | ||
| 22 TEX 5-1 | 72 TEX 9-4 | 122 TEX 11-0 | ||
| 23 TEX 6-3 | 73 SF 8-7 | 123 SF 11-6 | ||
| 24 TEX 6-4 | 74 TEX 8-0 | 124 SF 10-0 | ||
| 25 TEX 6-2 | 75 SF 9-3 | 125 SF 12-2 | ||
| 26 TEX 3-0 | 76 SF 9-4 | 126 TEX 11-6 | ||
| 27 SF 6-4 | 77 SF 7-0 | 127 SF 12-4 | ||
| 28 SF 1-0 | 78 SF 9-2 | 128 TEX 12-0 | ||
| 29 SF 6-5 | 79 TEX 10-2 | 129 TEX 12-5 | ||
| 30 SF 2-0 | 80 TEX 10-3 | 130 SF 12-1 | ||
| 31 SF 6-3 | 81 TEX 10-4 | 131 SF 10-8 | ||
| 32 TEX 4-0 | 82 TEX 9-5 | 132 TEX 13-3 | ||
| 33 SF 5-1 | 83 TEX 10-1 | 133 SF 11-7 | ||
| 34 TEX 6-1 | 84 TEX 9-6 | 134 TEX 13-1 | ||
| 35 SF 3-0 | 85 TEX 9-8 | 135 TEX 13-2 | ||
| 36 TEX 7-2 | 86 SF 9-1 | 136 TEX 10-8 | ||
| 37 TEX 7-6 | 87 SF 9-5 | 137 SF 10-9 | ||
| 38 SF 6-2 | 88 SF 10-3 | 138 SF 12-6 | ||
| 39 TEX 7-3 | 89 TEX 9-0 | 139 TEX 13-4 | ||
| 40 TEX 7-4 | 90 SF 9-6 | 140 SF 11-0 | ||
| 41 TEX 5-0 | 91 SF 8-0 | 141 TEX 11-7 | ||
| 42 TEX 7-1 | 92 SF 10-4 | 142 TEX 13-5 | ||
| 43 SF 6-1 | 93 SF 9-7 | 143 TEX 11-10 | ||
| 44 SF 4-0 | 94 TEX 11-2 | 144 TEX 12-6 | ||
| 45 SF 7-4 | 95 TEX 10-5 | 145 SF 12-5 | ||
| 46 TEX 7-5 | 96 SF 10-2 | 146 SF 13-2 | ||
| 47 TEX 8-2 | 97 SF 10-1 | 147 SF 11-8 | ||
| 48 SF 7-3 | 98 TEX 11-1 | 148 TEX 14-2 | ||
| 49 TEX 6-0 | 99 SF 10-5 | 149 SF 13-3 | ||
| 50 SF 7-6 | 100 TEX 11-4 | 150 SF 11-9 |
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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#7
UUUOU
Buster Posey>
"I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
#15 Tex. 6-5
OUOUO
Texas rallies from 5-0 for 3 in the 7th and 3 in the 8th…
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
"You never wake up the baby." - E. Renteria, 01 August 2010
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
Selfish wish for Giants to play another in SF?
by KrazyKrabMeat on Nov 1, 2010 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions
NOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!
I honestly didn’t think anyone could be so cruel… (I am so naive)
by KrazyKrabMeat on Nov 1, 2010 3:55 PM PDT up reply actions
#28
SF 1-0
Tsuyohsi Shinjo: Underwear model, winner of Japanese "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire," Ham Fighter, and member of the Giants team that would have participated in 2002 WS if an asteroid hadn't destroyed Earth.
# 5, 3-2 SF
Would fit the series-clinching pattern:
’10 NLCS Game 6: SF 3, PHI 2
’10 NLDS Game 4: SF 3, ATL 2
And for good measure:
’89 NLCS Game 5: SF 3, CHC 2
Yes, I am an Old Blue. Now get off my lawn.
#8 4-2 Tex
The big party will have to wait until Wednesday.
OUOOO
Adopted brother of Jason Jarvis who is stuck in the baseball purgatory called extended spring training.
#5 3-2 SF, Giants only team to beat Cliff Lee Twice in the post season.
UOUUO
Proud Adoptive Parent of Jesus Guzman, RHP. 2010 Line: 0 H, 2 BB, 0.00 ERA. CALL HIM UP!
Bochy: What’s this fancy stat here?
IT Guy: That’s how often they get on base. I do not know why you keep asking me, I am here to fix your server.
Whoops
UOUOU
Proud Adoptive Parent of Jesus Guzman, RHP. 2010 Line: 0 H, 2 BB, 0.00 ERA. CALL HIM UP!
Bochy: What’s this fancy stat here?
IT Guy: That’s how often they get on base. I do not know why you keep asking me, I am here to fix your server.
Final: #11 SF 3-1, UUUUU
All unders for the win. Congrats on your Championship. Would’ve made a lot of money betting the Giants in the post-season. Final simulator ROI for the playoffs was 42.07%. See you next spring….
vr, Xeifrank
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