Let The Debate Begin: Playoff Roster

Since he wasn’t on the roster before Aug 31

Pitchers:

Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Bumgarner
Wilson, Romo, Lopez, Ramirez, Affledt, Casilla, Ray

Position players:
Torres, Sanchez, Huff, Posey, Burrell, Guillen, Uribe, Sandoval
Fontenot, Schierholtz, Ross, Whiteside, Ishikawa, Renteria

Out:
Rowand, Zito, Mota

Of course Zito, Rent and Rowand will be on the roster – that’s a no-brainer when BS and Bochy are making the decisions. Zito will at least be the long relief guy in case one of the starters can’t make it out of the 4th inning – and Bochy might make him the 4th starter over MadBum due to his edge in “experience.” Rent will surely be on the team, unless his elbow makes him unable to play at all, because he’s our only true SS after Uribe.

I’m hoping that BS realizes that Guillen is a lost cause at this point, but that Bochy will continue to start him if he’s on the roster, so he will overrule Bochy and leave Guillen off the roster. That will let us put one more speed guy like Velez on the roster.

Pos Players (14)

Posey
Whiteside
Huff
F. Sanchez
Uribe
Sandoval
Renteria
Fontenot
Ishikawa
Burrell
Torres
Ross
Schierholtz
Rowand

Pitchers (11)

Lincecum
Cain
J. Sanchez
Bumgarner
Zito
Wilson
Romo
Ramirez
Lopez
Affeldt
Casilla

I’m wondering if it’s better to have Rowand as a backup over Guillen. Both guys are not hitting well at all, but Rowand is a better defensive outfielder and doesn’t look like he’s limping as much around the base pads like Guillen.

If the Giants were really thinking outside the box they’d leave Whiteside off the roster knowing Panda can be the backup/emergency catcher. Whiteside’s ONLY value is his ability to play average catcher defense. Unless Posey gets hurt, Whiteside probably won’t play an inning or get a single AB. The roster spot would be much more useful if used on another bullpen arm or a batter with value as a pinch hitter.

i say both Guillen and Rowand get in with Nate or TI getting left off..it’s just the way sabean and bochy operate.

Game 1: Lincecum
Game 2: Cain
Game 3: Sanchez (I don’t want him pitching at home in the playoffs, he’ll be WAY too amped. But him on the road? He’ll fuck opposing batters up.)
Game 4: Bumgarner if we’re up 2-1, Lincecum if we’re down 1-2.
Game 5: Lincecum if Bumgarner pitched game 4, Cain if Lincecum pitched game 4.

with Zito 4th starter. Again, just the way that bochy and sabean operate.

Sure, I’d love to see them give MadBum the 4th starter spot, but he’s not the 126 million dollar man.

SP (4):
Lincecum
Cain
Zito (should be: Sanchez)
Sanchez (should be: Bumgarner)

RP (7):
LR – Bumgarner (should be: Zito)
CL – Wilson
SU – Romo
SU – Affeldt
MR – Ramirez (should be: Casilla)
MR – Mota
LOOGY – Lopez

Lineup (8):
CF – Torres
2B – Sanchez
1B – Huff
C – Posey
LF – Burrell
RF – Guillen (should be: Ross)
SS – Uribe
3B – Sandoval

Bench (6):
SS – Renteria
CF – Rowand (should be: Ford)
INF – Fontenot
OF – Ross
C – Whiteside
RF – Schierholtz

What the rotation will be is obvious; what the rotation should be is just as obvious, and how that affects the bullpen is also obvious. Zito does belong on the playoff roster, as he is a better pitcher than guys like Ramirez and Ray, and can be used in long relief, whereas Ramirez and Ray are done after an inning. But he shouldn’t be one of the starters. Casilla v. Ramirez in the bullpen is close, but Casilla is probably a better pitcher. Ramirez is a very useful arm, but his peripherals are scary. Casilla does walk too many guys, but at least he’s got the strikeouts to make up for it; Ramirez has a fairly high walk rate and few K’s. Mota isn’t great, but still better than Ramirez. Runzler isn’t better than Lopez, and you don’t need more than one LHR + one LOOGY.

The lineup shouldn’t have Jose Guillen in it at all, because Cody Ross is an all-around better player. The postseason roster shouldn’t have Jose Guillen, either. But it will. This pushes Ross to the bench. Renteria is a useful bat to have; he shouldn’t be starting, but he’s a RHH infielder that balances out Fontenot. Rowand again should not be on the postseason roster, as he literally provides nothing of value (Ross is a better hitter and Torres is a better fielder and they can both hit right-handed) but will be anyway. This pushes Ford out of the picture, which is too bad, as neither Schierholtz nor Ross has the speed Ford does. Whiteside is the obvious backup C, which seems like a waste, as he’s only necessary if Posey is hurt. Replacing him with Ishikawa would give another LHH (and a better hitter), but would also make Pablo the backup C, and that’s just scary. It’s unfortunate that we have to account for such an unlikely event, but there you go. Nate’s there as a defensive replacement for Guillen, which is good, but in reality should be a defensive replacement for Burrell via Ross (Ross goes to LF from RF, Schierholtz in RF), which would allow Ford, but :(. Nate’s also the only LHH OF, making him a useful pinch-hitter. This bench gives you 2 LHH and 4 RHH, 3 INF and 3 OF, nice balance, but without a true PR and only one good PH (Ross), though that’s going to be a problem no matter what.

Really what it comes down to is Mota vs. Zito.
I looked at Bochy’s previous post-seasons as Manager with the Pods and from what I can tell he typically takes 5 starters even if he only rotates 4.

It’s quite possible that Bumgarner gets left off in favor of both Mota and Zito.
I don’s see how one can possibly make the argument for Mota in favor of Zito, and Mota in favor of Bumgarner would be weird.

On the position side – I would like to see Guillen left off, but he does have more pop than either Ishikawa and Schierholtz, and how many defensive replacements do you need?

Rowand is obviously in and I am absolutely cool with that.

It’s a little sad that both Ishikawa and Schierholtz won’t make the roster. They are good soldiers. The look on Nate’s face last night in RF led me to wonder if he was already told that he won’t be on the post season roster…. but I have to think that a RF defensive replacement is more valuable than a 1B. Panda would back up 1B with either Fontenot or Uribe taking over at 3B and Renteria at SS.

I am sure it will be Scheirholtz not TI now – he’s faster and can pinch run.

This may shock some of you – but I have enough faith in Bochy to let him pick the roster.

Aren’t Burriss and Velez also ineligible for the playoffs?

(And, LOL Rohlinger who is technically on the team, but who no one but me even remembers exists.)

Well, let’s see. We can start with the position players. In theory, one could get by with eight, but that’s silly. Still, let’s start by seeing who the core eight would be:

C: Posey
1B: Huff
2B: a problem already—FSanchez or Fontenot? We’ll come back to that
SS: Uribe
3B: Sandoval
LF: Burrell
CF: Torres
RF: another problem—Ross, Schierholtz, or Guillen? We’ll come back to that, too.

At 2B, we really don’t need to choose, because the fact that Fontenot can—at least in a pinch—play 3B or even SS makes him valuable as the sort of universal backup, so we take both.

In RF, Schierholtz may have the goods to succeed given playing time, but that’s just what he hasn’t had much of lately, and we’re looking at right now, not 2011. As between Ross and Guillen, Guillen is not useless, but right now he hasn’t been doing close to what Ross has offensively, plus Ross can field well; so, nod to Ross.

Now we need reserves. Do we need Whiteside if Sandoval is available? We’re not planning for rest, just for emergencies, so I think not; despite Sandoval not having caught in quite a while, it is the position he came up playing—3B was a major-league-level conversion—so it’s not as if it’s a skill he’ll forget quickly. We could get by with that, so let’s leave Whiteside in suspense. Fontenot is the universal infield backup (for 1B, an indirect backup—Sandoval to 1B, Fontenot to 3B). In the outfield, with Ross and Torres able to play any position, anyone who can play RF or CF is a universal backup; that puts the choice between Guillen, Schierholtz, and Rowand. Of the three, Guillen has actually been the slightly better bat this year, but I’d opt for Schierholtz because he’s much the better fielder.

So we have ten players: Posey, Huff, FSanchez, Fontenot, Uribe, Sandoval, Burrell, Torres, Ross, and Schierholtz. Of what’s left, who might one add, either for defense or for pinch-hitting? The choices are few: Whiteside, Renteria, Rowand, Guillen, Ishikawa—the rest are either ineligible by rule or ineligible by common sense. If we took all four, that would only leave 11 pitching spots. Which is more critical in a short series—pinch hitters or relievers?

Myself, I vote for relievers. Pinch hitters are gravy: if a man was good enough to start the game, it’s not a disaster if he bats for himself in a key spot, even against a wrong-handedness pitcher. If a reliever comes into a key situation and established, with a few pitches, that he hasn’t got it today, you need another man, right then. And, because that can happen a lot over several games, you need as many relievers as you can comfortably carry. So we will drop one of the remaining five. My vote is for Guillen, as he provides little that even Rowand cannot, while Whiteside and Renteria play key positions and Ishikawa is a LH bat. (But Guillen or Rowand, I wouldn’t argue much either way).

I have argued elsewhere that a 3-man rotation not only works, but is arguably better. (Who would you put all your chips on: Cain with 3 days’ rest, or Zito or Bumgarner?) That means that the pen could be as many as nine guys with a 13-man position-player roster. Do we even have that many we’d want to take? Let’s look (* = LHP):

Wilson
Romo
Lopez *
Ramirez
Casilla
Runzler *
Mota
Ray
Affeldt *
-—————
Zito *
Bumgarner *

Eleven, and we can take nine. Hard as it is to say, I leave off Zito because he doesn’t have much value as a short/middle reliever, and if a long man is needed—which one is—I’ll go with Bumgarner. Ten now. Who else do we drop? Considering the Braves’ lineup, I’d reckon LH relief is important, so not Runzler or Affeldt (though his splits are minimal); so it’s one of Ramirez, Casilla, Mota, or Ray. Ramirez, I think all would agree, has to be taken. Frankly, I don’t see much to choose from on the others: Casilla has been good, but is very chancey; Mota is experienced and has pitched better than his ERA, but is only a bit better than average; Ray has been decent but in SSS. I’d drop Ray, as much on “feel” as on the almost-fungible numbers.

So, by a, um, shall we say “reasonably reasonable” process, we get:

C: Posey
1B: Huff
2B: FSanchez
SS: Uribe
3B: Sandoval
LF: Burrell
CF: Torres
RF: Ross
IF: Fontenot
OF: Schierholtz
PH: Whiteside
PH: Renteria
PH: Ishikawa

SP: Cain
SP: Lincecum
SP: JSanchez *
LR: Bumgarner *
SR: Wilson
SR: Romo
RP: Lopez *
RP: Runzler *
RP: Affeldt *
RP: Ramirez
RP: Casilla
RP: Mota

Of course, how the Bochean see it is probably another matter altogether. (Can we see them leaving off either of Guillen or Roawnd?)

Sabean delenda est!