Giants vs. Braves - predicting the pitching rotations. With poll!!!

Whew!  Glad that's out of the way.  I must say that it was brilliant strategy by Bochy (once again) to throw the first 2 games of the Pads series and force the Braves to pitch their 2 best starters, Tommy Hanson and Tim Hudson, on Saturday and Sunday, respectively - not to mention forcing Cox to overwork his bullpen in all 3 of the Phillies games.  The Braves entire pitching staff is limping now, while the Giants (besides Zito) are well-rested and on a roll.

I thought it would be fun to play manager and map out the starting rotations for the upcoming best-of-5 series.  The Giants play at home on Thursday and Friday night (local start time is 6:37 for both games), then fly to GA for 2 games on Sunday and Monday (if necessary), and finally return home for the 5th game at AT&T on Wednesday (if necessary).  There are no start times on the final 3 games, but I've got to believe that Sunday will be an early afternoon game because game 4 of the Yankees/Twins series and the Rays/Rangers series will be played on Sunday if necessary, not to mention game 3 of the Phillies/Reds series.  Needless to say, those 3 series will be viewed as more compelling than the Giants/Braves by the TV powers that be.  Here's the link to the entire playoff schedule:

 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5634025

The Braves starting rotation consists of Hudson, Derek Lowe, Hanson, Jair Jurrjens, and rookie Mike Minor.  Rookie Brandon Beachy did start 3 games down the stretch for them, but he's not eligible for the playoffs unless the Braves pull an "injury exemption" with one of their other pitchers.  Kenshin Kawakami did start 16 games for them, with poor results, but he hasn't pitched at all since Sept. 9th so I don't think he's an option.  Also, Jurrjens has a bum knee that has kept him out since Sept. 14th, but he has been doing bullpen sessions for about a week now and was rumored to be available in a pinch for the final 3 regular games against the Phillies.  Assuming that Bochy doesn't get whacky and start Sanchez in the first game, every Giants starter will be working on more than their normal 4 days rest, with Lincecum getting 7 days and MadBum at least 8 days (if he starts at all).  Since Hudson pitched today, he won't be available to go in game #1 (unless Cox goes nuts and starts him on 3 days rest).  For game 1 Hanson will be available on 4 days rest, Derek Lowe on 7 days rest, Minor on 15 days rest (although he did throw 30 pitches in relief on Saturday - and was hit hard), and Jurrjens on a million days rest.

If I were the manager, I'd go with the following rotation:

Game 1:  Timmeh (7 days rest)  .................  Game 2: Cainer (6 days rest)

Game 3: Dirty (6 days rest)  .......................  Game 4: MadBum (10 days rest)

Game 5: Timmeh (5 days rest)


The only controversial thing here is choosing MadBum over Zito, but I think it's pretty obvious that he's the better pitcher by more than a little bit right now.  MadBum was absolutely money down the stretch (allowing only 0, 1, 2, 0, and 1 runs in his 5 Sept. starts - while posting a K/BB of 32/4 in 32 innings).  Since the end of August his velocity is back close to what it was in 2008 and the first part of 2009, allowing his K/9 rate to jump to over 9.4 in his last 6 starts.  As for nerves, I trust MadBum's more than Zito's at this point of the season.  MadBum seems to thrive on the pressure and spotlight, and he has a minor league history of coming up big in the playoffs - plus he doesn't walk hitters.  IMO, Zito will be much looser and more effective coming out of the pen in long relief in case one of our starters gets in early trouble. 

Finally, I'm guessing that Bobby Cox will counter with the following starting rotation:

Game 1:  Hanson (4 days rest)  .................  Game 2: Hudson (4 days rest)

Game 3: Lowe (10 days rest)  ....................  Game 4: Jurrjens (N/M)

Game 5: Hudson (4 days rest)

 If Cox channels Bochy, then he'll flip Lowe and Hanson, but I doubt it.  Hanson was, by far, his best pitcher in Sept., while Hudson and Lowe came limping home down the stretch.  Cox might go with Minor instead of Jurrjens in game 4, but he obviously lost confidence in Minor after he got rocked in consecutive starts in early-, to mid-September.  If Jurrjens is given the green light to go medically, I've got to believe that Cox puts the ball in his hand for the crucial game 4.  If Hanson pitches lights out in game 1 then Cox will probably start him in game 5, but if not, I think Cox will go with his proven veteran Hudson with all his marbles on the line.