Huff and Uribe Classified as Type B Free Agents

I do know it’s mostly based on “traditional” stats.

he probably wouldn’t have been available to us when he was

Although I would be happy to go with an incentive-based option for a 2nd year for both of them – something based on plate appearances in 2011. Sadly (because I really love Huff and Uribe), the only way that I think these 2 guys comes back to the Giants after this season is if they give us the “feel-good” diesount and accept fewer years, and a bit less money per year, than they’re likely to get from another team.

The alternatives to Huff are much better than the alternatives to Uribe.

I don’t think it will get that far with Huff. I think that if he’s willing to come back for a lesser contract the deal will get done before the arb deadline.

But, just realize that we don’t have the money, and can’t give out the length of contract, to play in the Werth, Crawford, or Beltre sweepstakes. Arb raises and scheduled salary increases will already be taking up > 90% of the salaries that are coming off the books (mainly Rent’s). Also, I don’t think the Belt situation should impact signing Huff, because Huff can play either RF or LF. Most of the major decisions in the offseason will be made for us by guys like Huff, Burrell, and Uribe. If they’re willing to give us a “feel-good” discount then they’ll all almost certainly be coming back, otherwise, BS will scramble to find a relatively cheap 1B/OF bat to replace whoever rejects his offer. I think the most likely “big” deal/trade in our offseason will be if BS can swing a trade for an everday SS.

He’ll probably cost ~6M next year

is just not a bad idea. One of the least-discussed fantastic pieces of luck the Giants had this year was being injury-free, mostly, and that might not happen again next year.

I like your thought process and the detail. I agree with most of it. The only things that I disagree with you are:

1. I would non-tender Fontenot (and I think BS will too). I think he would get way too much $$$ (at least $1.5M) in arb (his 2nd arb year) for what he would bring to the table. I would rather let him lose and try to sign him on the FA market for around 1 year @ $750K – but I doubt he’d accept that. I believe we can get a comparable player to Fontie (considering how little PT he’ll actually get) from our farm system for the league minimum. I’m talking about guys like Rohlinger, Burriss, and Bond.

2. There’s no way that Franchez can play SS on more than a 1 or 2 game emergency basis. He doesn’t have the arm for it.

3. I don’t see the Giants offering Ramon Ramirez arb – he just too expensive and Bochy has lost confidence in him in the postseason. He’s in his 2nd arb year, and he made $1.155M this year, so he’s likely to get a raise up to at least the $1.5M mark. I also believe that they’d be more likely to try to keep Chris Ray (who is 3rd year arb-eligible and only made 975K this year) than Ramirez, because they think they’re comparable and Ray would cost less.

4. Casilla is arb-eligible (2nd time) and the Giants love him. I think they tender him and then sign him up for at least $1M with a team option for a 2nd year.

5. Although he only made $2.1M this year, Dirty will get a huge raise if he goes to arb – much more than the $5M you suggest. I would guess something around the $7.5M range based on comps. I doubt it ever gets that far. I think that BS will sign him to a multi-year contract (something like 3 years @ $21 M) that’s heavily backloaded (something like $5M, $7M, $9M). Then he looks to trade him or Cain during the 2012 season and replace them with somebody from the farm system (Wheeler, Bucardo, Rosin, etc.).

Yes, he can play third but his arm is not what it used to be. He’s our second baseman.

I like the intuition here with Burrell The situation with the clogged outfield and potential call-ups of Belt and Neal are ameliorated if we operate from the assumption that Burrell shouldn’t be on the roster next year.

It makes rational sense too, in that Burrell’s true performance level is not indicated by his recent run of success with the Giants, but that the Giants are exactly the sort of front office to be fooled by the arbitrary cutoff between his Rays days and his Giants days. I feel that Pat the Bat, once re-signed, will, unexpectedly to the pundits and casual fans, frustrate many Giants enthusiasts.

This is as good a place as any to put forth my opinions about the upcoming Uribe and Huff decisions:

1) Offer arbitration to Uribe. I willingly accept a potential a draft pick if declined, and if accepted, I would aim for a 1-year deal. Hopefully the prospect of arbitration (undesirable to both parties) will save some money as opposed to free agency.

2) Don’t bother with arbitration when dealing with Huff. Go straight to the negotiating table and give him a 1-year deal with Renteria-to-Rowand yearly pay. The Giants struck it rich with this thong-clad lottery ticket, and Huff gives them a perfect opportunity to cash out big in the 2011 offseason with Class A draft pick compensation and a marquee replacement in Brandon Belt.

A multiple-year deal with Huff would be a large error, in my opinion. The last year that his 2010 will be considered in the Elias rankings is 2011. A 2-year deal eliminates the option of using that 2010 performance for draft pick compensation. As regression is the norm following any outstanding performance, and as Huff’s age is no boon to his future prospects, the risk that 2011 and 2012 for Huff will destroy that (Class A) opportunity.

1. Eating Scott’s contract doesn’t really get us anything, because he’s still a somewhat useful player, and we can most likely trade him in the middle of next season (when he’s only got 1.5 years left on the contract) by giving back about 50-60% of the money to the acquiring team. It’s not like Rowand is keeping anybody in the minors at this point now that Bowker is gone.

2. DeRosa has played 3B before, at about an average defensive level, but that was several years back. Who knows what his range is like now? Of course, it can’t be any worse than Panda’s.

3. I don’t think we’ll get anything useful for Panda until he shows some sign of losing weight, hitting better, and fielding better.

4. I think that all 3 of the FA’s are willing to give us a big discount on the money end. However, I don’t think they will all yield on the length of the contract. They’re all going to want at least 2 years, and I don’t think Sabes will comply, so I don’t see all 3 coming back. I’m guessing only Burrell and Uribe do.

that I would trade Panda for. (And those guys can’t be had.) You are hoping that no one has seen Rowand The Pooper swing at pitches as far off the plate as Wichita. Pray that Panda rebounds.

Agree, Pat’s most likely out of here in any case, but especially with another ring.

His unwillingness/inability to DH is going to significantly reduce his options.

1. Offering arbitration to Burrell and Huff is pointless; neither will get you a compensation pick if they go elsewhere (Huff is NOT a Type B free agent), and if they accept you’re absolutely locked into a deal with them, quite possibly one that’s too expensive. There’s no upside there, so it’s better to deal with them as free agents so you can walk away if their demands are too high.

2. Burrell is both a waste of money and a roster spot, as well as a considerable risk. He didn’t produce in Tampa for a year and a half while aging, and we’ve only got a few months of data here. He’ll cost upwards of $5M; meanwhile, we can field an OF of DeRosa/Torres/Ross, which is solid, and don’t have a starting shortstop. That’s a massive waste of money we don’t have.

3. Uribe’s not going to be easy to retain (and certainly not for $3M). As a solid-fielding SS who hit 24 home runs, he is going to be in demand, and likely looking for a 2+ year deal at at least $5M per. Somebody will give that to him, possibly us, but he’s more expensive than you think ($3M would actually be a salary REDUCTION for him; he made $3.25M this year). Furthermore, backloaded contracts are dangerous; it’s one of the reasons the Dodgers are in so much financial trouble right now. If we keep backloading contracts (and we are doing so more than I would like, especially with Cain’s deal), then in a few years we’ll be in the same position as the Dodgers, unable to retain or acquire good players we could use for a postseason run because we’re paying guys who haven’t played for us for four years. I’d rather not have Uribe than have him on a three-year deal that pays him $2M/$5M/$8M.

4. Cody Ross is a better player than Pat Burrell, and he’d likely be cheaper. Younger, better defensively, and comparable offensively. With RF at AT&T, I’ll take solid defense out there instead of DeRosa (who isn’t good) and Burrell (who isn’t good), which leaves too much in Torres’ lap. And while I too believe in Nate Schierholtz, Ross is a better option.

5. Nobody wants DeRosa or Sanchez. They’re old, they’ve had recent injuries, and they’re no great shakes offensively. If we could unload DeRosa, we would, and we’d re-sign Burrell with the money. Neither of them is getting a good SS, and there isn’t anyone on the free agent list either; it’s Uribe or replacement-level player X.

6. Mike Fontenot is not a starting 2B. He just doesn’t hit well enough, and his defense isn’t great either. As a backup/utility INF, he’s a good option, but his bat should not be in the lineup of a team that generally has problems scoring runs, and with DeRosa instead of Burrell, that will be the case. If Uribe and Fontenot are squaring off for the 2B job, then that’s sad, because Fontenot is no competition and shouldn’t really be considered an option over Uribe.

7. I hope this is a reply fail, because you copy-pasted a lot of what I wrote, which is rather disingenuous.

But it’s him or Rowand, and…yeah it should probably be Rowand.

Huff is not a Type B/A free agent. You gain nothing by offering him arbitration, except exclusive negotiating rights and having to retain him no matter what. Since the gain (exclusive rights) isn’t that special, but being forced to pay him is problematic, that’s not a good idea.

Also, this team just doesn’t have enough money for Burrell AND Huff AND Uribe unless there’s a pretty significant payroll increase (at least $10M). Even getting two of three would likely require a bump unless they’re dirt cheap again or we non-tender a bunch of players.

And I don’t know why people think we CAN acquire Drew or Hardy, much less believing it’s reasonable. Hardy is the starting SS on a contender in an offseason where shortstops are difficult to find, and the Twins have no in-house replacement. Why would they trade him when they’re looking to make the postseason again? And Kevin Towers has repeatedly said he doesn’t want to trade Drew, and since he wanted Rick Porcello from the Tigers to part with him, he’d probably want Jonathan Sanchez from us, and we can’t/shouldn’t part with Sanchez. Bartlett is definitely available, but personally I’d rather go after Sean Rodriguez or Reid Brignac; they are less available, but are better long-term acquisitions. I’m also scared of trading prospects to the Rays.

I like it.

As a rule, you should probably only expect one of those three you mentioned to reach the production necessary to fill a starting spot in the lineup in 2012. I’d put my money on Neal.