Some Giant prospect questions

Did I miss the World Series? It’s already the off-season?

Brandon Belt is Buster Posey all over again. Not overstating one bit. The guy is going to rake when he gets to the show.

1-Sanchez
2-Joseph
3-Monell.

I rank them like this because Sanchez has always posted a good OBP, while Joseph was overmatched last year. That said Joseph’s upside is too high for me to rank below Monell.

I’d say Cavan had a successful year, but I think his ceiling is a utility guy.

Graham’s arm is too live for me to give up on him but he is extremely raw. He’s a little like Aaron King in that regard.

I need see more from Fleet at higher levels.

I don’t think Dominguez had a successful year. I think he makes the switch and becomes a relief pitcher long term.

I see Surkamp as a 3/4 starter, Tanner as a LOOGY and, Clark as org filler.

Jose Casilla could probably start. The Giants are also reportedly thinking of trying Jake Dunning as a starter.

I still have some faith in Noonan, but it’s fading fast.

I think I like Crawford more than Adrianza as the SS of the future.

I like Willoughby more than Windster.

Fairley showed no power and couldn’t stick in CF defensively. He’s clearly a bust.

How would you rank the following catching prospects, Johnny Monell, Hector Sanchez, Tommy Joesph? Explain.

Depends. Ranking as a catcher future? Sanchez, Joseph, Monell. Ranking as an overall player, regardless of future position? Joseph moves to the top. Joseph had a tough year, but was beat up badly behind the plate. The team still likes him as a catcher, but he doesn’t have the toughness it seems. That’s fine. He’s still a very good hitter, despite the number. Sanchez is a good overall talent, but I question his ceiling. Monell feels like Steve Holm, which is no small thing, but it doesn’t match the other two.

Would you consider Ryan Cavan’s first full season in the minors a success or a failure? Could you see him being an everyday regular?

I don’t go black or white on a season, and Cavan’s was a mixed bag. He’s an underdog for an everyday major leaguer, but he’s not out of the race.

Would you still consider Matt Graham a prospect? Any projections for him?

Yes, but no projections. I don’t think we’ve seen him for real, yet. However, he is not the saving grace of this system some think he is.

Austin Fleet had a very good pro debut, though he was old for the league. Where do you project him?

His debut is enough to make him a low-mid range prospect. But the AZL and Scottsdale are good places for older pitchers. Ask again to see how Augusta treats him.

Is Chris Dominguez’s stock up or down after his first pro season? What do you think his future role will be?

Unquestionably down, but there are upsides. His power is ridiculous, and I think he has the best raw power in the system. He had a lot of errors, but there were a lot of accolades for his defense overall. I want to see what he can do in San Jose with the Davenports. I have some hope for him to be a low-average, high power guy (Uribe?).

Are there any current relievers capable of making a transition to starter?

Take a look at many of the 2010 draftees. Beyond them, Jose Casilla seems like the best bet, or Waldis Joaquin getting a chance to move back to a starter role. Note, both of these guys have been starters in the past.

I still have faith in Nick Noonan, does anyone else? Why or why not?

I kind of do, but he has to do something. He has natural talent, but he’s not playing with it, it seems.

SS prospect of the future, Crawford or Adrianza?

Not a great choice, but Crawford (some chance) is better than Adrianza (little chance). And I’m still the only one who thinks that about Adrianza publicly. That’s fine.

Most likely to be a major league regular Carlos Willoughby or Sundrendy Windster?

Willoughby. Sundrendy will be held down by protesting broadcasters scared of his name.

And last and most likely least, whatever happened to Wendell Fairley lol?

What happened was that his batspeed couldn’t catch up to slow pitch recognition and reaction. He spent this season making adjustments (see, the Davenports). He starter relying more on his other natural talents rather than power. It was a mixed reaction, but things looked better for him, for once.

How would you rank the following catching prospects, Johnny Monell, Hector Sanchez, Tommy Joesph? Explain.

This is an interesting question. Hector Sanchez has had a lot of love, being rated as an excellent defensive catcher and had a BB rate near 10% and K rate near 15%. However, recent reports out of the giants organization are that they are down on him, and will likely have him repeat Low-A, while Joesph, who you could argue had a worse season, will advance to High-A.

Monell had an excellent year at San Jose especially as a left handed hitter at the muni. My concern about hims is that he already is a 25% K rate guy, which will likely jump in AA next year. His walk rate was at a very respectable 11%, and the power is real. The question is his defense. I have heard very little in regard to his skills behind the plate, but Monell jumped substantial in the system this year. Here’s hoping he is more Pablo in AA than Adam Witter

The warts of Tommy Joseph are well known, but the power is real, and from the reports out of the Sally his defense improved over the year.

My rankings would likely be Joseph-Monell-Sanchez

Would you consider Ryan Cavan’s first full season in the minors a success or a failure? Could you see him being an everyday regular?

I would say his first full season was defiantly a disappointment, bordering on failure. He hit very well for the South Atlantic League, however he has two big marks against him. The first being he will turn 24 in the middle of the next season. Second, and more importantly, the reports are that he has stone hands at second base (I do not recall with certainty where i heard this report, so take it with a grain of salt), and may need to move to the outfield, where his bat would need to be much better. Hopefully he can progressive towards the majors at a expedited pace, but he is likely, at best, a back-up infielder (which would be still very good) but more likely organizational filler.

Would you still consider Matt Graham a prospect? Any projections for him?

Yes. Young, throws hard, trust Tidrow and Baer.

Austin Fleet had a very good pro debut, though he was old for the league. Where do you project him?

Its very difficult to project AZL stats. He outperformed his college numbers at Costal Carolina in Rookie ball, but Giants and pitching, you never know, but he has a long way to go, and TINSTAAPP

Is Chris Dominguez’s stock up or down after his first pro season? What do you think his future role will be?

He would need to rework his swing, and approach, and, with the exception of Brandon Belt’s swing, they have had limited success with this in the past. The power potential is immense, however the defense and offensive struggles this are more indicative of organizational filler than big leaguer. Think David Maroul

Projections for the following: Craig Clark, Eric Surkamp, and Clayton Tanner.

Tanner is looking more like a slider grounder reliever by the year. Surkamp is interesting. The K’s are good, but he has been old for his league so far. AA will determine whether he is a future starter or with the Giants. Clark is likely organization filler, especially with the pitching depth.

Are there any current relievers capable of making a transition to starter?

Difficult to say, however the obvious candidates are Casilla, Dunning, Dunnington, with hopes that Graham and King can go back to starting.

I still have faith in Nick Noonan, does anyone else? Why or why not?

No, not really. Never really walked, never really stung the ball, or at least had results from it (I have heard reports that it sounds different off his bat, but otherwise little else). He is limited to second defensively, so his ability as a back up middle infielder are limited as well (I believe he was moved off short because of arm strength not range, so a move back is still unlikely)

SS prospect of the future, Crawford or Adrianza?

Crawford. His defense was the best in AA this past year before the injury (a UZR of +10, although it is the minor so take it with a grain of salt). Add in his walk rate of 13% at AA, and a K rate of 25%, maintaining it from the year previously. That walk rate with that defense is incredibly valuable, and add in that he is closer to the majors than Adrianza. If Crawford gets to start the season in AAA next year, look for his slugging to rocket back to CAL league values (well maybe not that high).

Most likely to be a major league regular Carlos Willoughby or Sundrendy Windster?

Windster. They are essentially the same age, the Jackal is 3 months older and turns 22 in a few weeks. The speed with Willoughby is real, but if he is tuck at second there are a lot of players he will need to climb over. Windster has three options to start as an outfielder. Add in Windster’s superior walk rate, 17% to 10%, and impressive power in rookie ball this year, iso of .283, and he is the easy selection. SSS, i know, and rookie league stats, but he is one i will follow.

And last and most likely least, whatever happened to Wendell Fairley lol?

He was a late comer to baseball. I am not giving up on him, but anything at this point would be a bonus rather than an expectation.

Doesn’t that sound awesome – off-day in October!

1 Monell, Joseph then Sanchez.
      I like the power of Monell and Joseph – it raises their ceiling. Sanchez may be a better bet to make it to the bigs.

2 Cavans first full was a success, but I don’t see him as prospect. 23 year olds in low need to be pushed quickly up the ladder before I take notice.

3 Matt Graham – Every 20 year old that can throw hard is a prospect. When the whip comes down I really get excited.

4 Dominguez was too old and had too many contact issues for me to get excited. If he does it in AA or AAA – then I’ll take notice

5 Ceilings – Clark AAA fodder – Surkamp – middle to back of the rotation starter (this is not knowing the extent of his injury this year) – Tanner – Long relief, possible LOOGY

How would you rank the following catching prospects, Johnny Monell, Hector Sanchez, Tommy Joesph? Explain.
Brute covered this pretty well. Purely as a catcher, I’d go with Sanchez. As a hitter, Joseph has the infamous “light tower power,” so by that measure alone the organization will keep playing him until/unless he proves he can’t handle the level or the position. I still think he’s an OF in the future.

Would you consider Ryan Cavan’s first full season in the minors a success or a failure? Could you see him being an everyday regular?
I’m completely unimpressed with Cavan. Only in an Ecksteinian universe would Cavan become an everyday player.

Would you still consider Matt Graham a prospect? Any projections for him?
Again, Brute nailed this answer perfectly. Sure, he’s still a prospect; but there’s almost no way to realistically assess his chances of future success.

Austin Fleet had a very good pro debut, though he was old for the league. Where do you project him?
If you’re asking where he’ll be assigned, I’d guess Augusta. But how he’ll do there – no idea.

Is Chris Dominguez’s stock up or down after his first pro season? What do you think his future role will be?
I think you just don’t give up immediately on players with a scarce ability. “Stock” is a tricky word here. My guess is that his “stock” went down, as others here have frequently observed that, as a college player, he should have dominated Low-A rather than merely survived. I was encourage that he maintained his batting average. Overall, I’d say 2011 is year after which we can reasonably predict his future role. I hear good things about his defense, despite some errors. The possibility of a slugging 3B for the Giants is just so appealing… I can think of Matt Williams and Jim Ray Hart, and that’s about it. I’m willing to give Dominguez a bit more slack before discarding him.

Projections for the following: Chris Clark, Eric Surkamp, and Clayton Tanner.
Nothing new to add. Surkamp maybe a #4 starter. At best, Tanner becomes a LOOGY, but I doubt even that. Clark will be selling insurance (and making more $ than me) in a couple of years.

Are there any current relievers capable of making a transition to starter?
OmahaGiants summarized my thoughts concisely.

I still have faith in Nick Noonan, does anyone else? Why or why not?
I still believe (insert pop song lyric of your choice here). Unlike OmahaGiants, I’ve seen him sting the ball. In Augusta in 2008, he was the most impressive hittter I saw during a brief 2-game visit. He carried himself like a baseball lifer, he’s very coordinated (wasn’t a gangly kid like Peguero), and had a smooth swing. I think some nagging injuries and the culture/weather shock of playing in the Northeast (San Diego kid, as I recall) slowed him down last year. And he’s still young for his league. I could see a 2-year apprenticeship in Fresno (unfortunately, since FSanchez is only signed through next year), and a reasonable promotion in Sept. 2012 — unless he really blossoms before then, of course.

SS prospect of the future, Crawford or Adrianza?
Like Brute, I greatly favor Crawford over Adrianza. To me, Ehire is the second coming of Manny Burriss.

Most likely to be a major league regular Carlos Willoughby or Sundrendy Windster?
It’s still pretty early to tell, but I’d give the nod to Carlos Willoughby.

And last and most likely least, whatever happened to Wendell Fairley lol?
A classic example of an “athlete” not necessarily being a “ballplayer.”

Or should that be .02 cents (several might claim that’s all it’s worth)?

Lots of good detailed answers already, most of which I agree with, so I’ll try not to repeat anything.

1. I think it’s obvious that Hector Sanchez is the better catching prospect due to his better D. Tommy Boy and Monell have much better upside with the bat, IMO, but I strongly doubt either can play better than below-average D in the majors. That being said, I highly doubt that any of the 3 will ever play in SF – if they beat the long odds and make it to the bigs it will almost certainly be for another team. All 3 will have a very tough time beating out Dan Burkhart, Jeff Arnold, Jackson Williams, and even Drew Biery as the heir-apparent to Eli Whiteside’s job as Posey’s caddy. Joseph has an outside chance to be a 1B with barely average D, but with BBelt, Brett Pill and Chris Dominguez ahead of him, he most likely goes to the AL and becomes a DH/1B if he can overcome his huge contact problems.

2. Ryan Cavan is not much of a prospect. He did up his power output considerably this year, but not enough to overcome his defensive liability in my view. They had to move him off SS because of his range and hands, and he didn’t improve much at 2B. It should be noticed that the Giants have moved Nick Liles, Cavan’s Augusta teammate, back to the infield (2B/3B) in the AZ Instructional League this Fall. He played 2B in his last college season, but wasn’t comfortable there, so the Giants tried him in the OF his first 2 seasons. He hits well, and gets on base, but with no power. He slashed .316/.361/.387/.747 with an 11% K-rate and 6.5% BB-rate. The Giants must see him as a 2B going forward, meaning Cavan is most likely going to see his ABs reduced next season. Like Sanchez and Monell, Cavan will find it very difficult to escape from depth-chart hell, while younger prospects like Julio Izturis and Carlos Willoughby are nipping at his heels.

3. Matt Graham is definitely a prospect, around the mid-30s in my book. He drops becuase his mechanics are reportedly still very erratic, even after a full calendar year under the tutelage of the Giants’ pitching gurus. I have the feeling that he will be a very long-term project. If he makes it to the majors, it will be a very long and arduous trip and he’ll likely be at least 25 years old. He had a live arm at 1 point, so don’t give up on him.

4. Austin Fleet isn’t much of a prospect. Due to their stable of starting pitchers in the lower minors, if he makes it to SF it will almost certainly be as a middle/long reliever. To make it as a starter he will have to develop a stellar secondary pitch like a changeup. splitter, or cutter. Look for him in another uniform if he ever makes it to the majors.

5. Chris Dominguez struck out 133 times, and walked only 35 times, in 136 games in Augusta (K-rate=22.3%, BB-rate=5.8%). That would be kind of acceptable for a teen-aged kid that was only 1 or 2 years out of high school, but Dominguez was 23 years old with 3 years of college ball and 1 year of short-season A ball beneath his belt. Yes, he hit 21 HRs, but he only OBP’d .326 and slugged .456 in a league he should have dominated. He also had 32 errors (I know this isn’t a great way to judge defense, but at least 12 of those errors were on throws) and was only successful in 14 of 21 SB attempts (67%). You can’t give up on him, because he may put it all together at some future date, but the odds are very unlikely due to his advanced age and multiple red flag warnings in his game. I have a feeling that he’s a 1B, DH, or corner OF if he ever makes it to the majors.

6. I have nothing to add on Surkamp, Clark, or Tanner, except that I see Surkamp’s ceiling as closer to a #5 starter than a #3/#4.

7. Relievers to starters: I’m surprised nobody has mentioned the Cuban defector Reinier Roibal. He’s got to be the #1 prospect in this category, and reportedly has electric stuff when he’s on his game. #2 would be Heath Hembree. He has a faster path to the majors as a reliever, but he would probably be a better pitcher, and more valuable, if they put him back in the starting rotation. He started in high school and his first 2 years in college. It wasn’t until the 2010 season that he was made a reliever due to the lack of any better candidate on his team. #3 would be Brandon Allen. After signing out of high school back in June, Allen had 5 relief appearances for Scottsdale, and has been used as a reliever in games this Fall in the AZ Instructional League. If he progresses enough with his strength and mechanics in the offseason, I think we’ll see him in the starting rotation in Augusta next April. Another possibility might be Chris Gloor, but I doubt it. I hope that the Giants do move both Jake Dunning and Jacob Dunnington to starters next year. Even if they end up being relievers in the long run I think their time in the starting rotation will be highly beneficial to their development. I don’t think Jose Casilla will be even considered for this – the Giants seem to love him as a closer.

8. Nick Noonan better listen to the great Satchel Paige, “Don’t look back because somebody might be gaining on you.” I think his stock has dropped tremendously due to his lack of progress on the playing field. The EL is a tough league for a guy that turned 21 just 30 days into the season, but Noonan showed no signs of being able to make any adjustments. Despite being statistically below average at the plate in the first half of the season (putting up a .628 OPS), his output fell off a cliff in the 2nd half (when all of the other top prospects on the team were surging) – putting up a slash of .223/.255/.279/.535. Even the new-found skill of working a walk that he displayed in 2009 at SJ evaporated – his BB-rate alarmingly fell to just 5.5% (from 9.4% in 2009), and he has also never shown any ability to hit LHP in any of his pro seasons. When you add all of the offensive woes to his average-at-best defense at 2B, you get the picture of a once-top prospect’s balloon being popped. He’s still young, so you can’t write him off yet, but he has a big problem in his rear-view mirror. Unless the Giants inexplicably promote him to Fresno next season, how is he going to get PT at 2B in Richmond next year? Charlie Culberson had a break-out year in SJ in 2010, and he has followed that up by absolutely killing the ball in the highly-rated AFL this month. In 8 games (and 38 PA’s) he has slashed an eye-popping .514/.541/.857/1.398 with 2 HR, 6 Dbl., and only 5 K (13.2%). By comparison, BBelt has twice as many K’s (10) and a slash of .321/387/.429/.816 in 7 fewer PA’s. Noonan should be very worried that the Giants chose Culberson over him to play in the prestigious AFL, and the fact that Culberson is only 1 month older than Noonan. Almost assuredly, both will be in Richmond to start the 2011 season, and unless the Giants decide to move Culbie back to 3B, both will be competing to start at 2B.

9. I’m much higher on Brandon Crawford than Adrianza. But then, I’m probably higher on Crawford’s major league future than any other regular poster on this site. I believe in his ability to make the needed adjustments at the plate in the coming years to be at least a league-average SS at the plate (in terms of OPS). When added to his stellar D, that’s a recipe for a long career. His much-improved BB rate in his 2nd try at the EL in 2010 was a big key for me. I think that his offensive stats will greatly improve once he gets into the PCL, and away from the 2 hugely awful hitter’s parks (Dodd and Richmond) that he had to play his home games in in 2009 and 2010.

10. I like Carlos Willoughby a lot. He’s a big sleeper prospect in my book, Sundrendy Windster is not. If the Giants give Carlos a real chance, and he continues to improve, then I think Willoughby can be a sparkplug leadoff hitter at 2B in the majors. You can’t teach that type of speed, and he really disrupts the opposing defense with it. Windster did make big strides in Scottsdale this season, but he was repeating the league, so I would expect that. He’s still a very long-shot prospect.

11. Wendell Fairley had a quietly nice 2nd half of the season in SJ this year. Even with the surge, he still only hit 1 HR all season, and slugged only 343 (.386 in the 2nd half), in the hitter’s paradise that is the Cal League. IMO, he’s a prime example of a prospect that only gets major playing time due to the fact that he was a former high draft pick (in his case it was the 1st round of 2007) who got a (relatively) big signing bonus.