Giants v. Rangers - Advanced Statistics
by xanthan on Oct 25, 2010 3:40 PM PDT
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Here's the data table:
| Statistic | Giants | Rangers |
| UZR | 56.4 | 18.1 |
| SP FIP | 3.89 | 4.23 |
| RP FIP | 3.41 | 3.99 |
| Team K/9 | 8.2 | 7.3 |
| Team BB/9 | 3.56 | 3.41 |
| Batting Runs | -14.6 | 38.4 |
| wOBA | .318 | .333 |
| EQBRR | -8.4 | 10.4 |
For your information, batting runs are from the value portion of FanGraphs -- and they are park-adjusted, so I prefer them to the wOBA numbers, which aren't. I'm still surprised at the Giants' defense, though the Rangers aren't slackers in that regard, either.
The Giants had the best K/9 of any team in baseball this year. The EQBRR numbers are from BP, the Giants aren't a very good baserunning team (duh) and the Rangers were the #3 team in the majors this season on the basepaths.
Giants edge the Rangers in: Starting Pitching, Bullpen, Defense, and Team Pitching Strikeout-rate
Rangers edge the Giants in: Overall offense (even with park adjustments), Baserunning, and Team Pitching Walk-rate.
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But the Giants play in the PCL National League. Shouldn’t you just arbitrarily give the Rangers a huge advantage in every category?
Science!
Q: Did you ever make an offer for Vladimir Guerrero?
Sabean: In a word: No. If we had signed Guerrero or [Gary] Sheffield, we would have been without [Long list of replacement level vets]—obviously not being able to field a competitive team, especially from an experience standpoint, given our level of spending.
Giants have better pitching, other team has better offense
Shouldn’t we just post this analysis for every series?
OMG ADVANDED STATZ
Still in despair.
"Use the stencil! Do it!"
konakona:「つかさに教われと...なんか非常に負けたような気がする。」
Shun Kakazu: MOAR JAPANESE PROSPECTS PLZ
So, the way I read this is that the Giants are going to win the first four games, then lose the last three. I’d be OK with that.
Adopted brother of Jason Jarvis who is stuck in the baseball purgatory called extended spring training.
yeah, I know
it’s not like he’s going to be fired in between series. He just annoys me, is all.
Mark DeRosa, still existing.
THIRD BASE COACH INTERFERES WITH PLAY AT THE PLATE; FINES ISSUED
"Fuck yeah, shut up." - Tim Lincecum
I wonder if there is any baseball fan base, anywhere, that ever liked their team’s third base coach. I’m just trying to think of one example.
Pretty Sure that there are only five people here who understand the Wendall Kim reference. I love this webpage. It’s true, you an find anything on the web.
Adopted Son: !Matt Downs I'll miss you my son.
You’d rather have Windmill Wendell Kim?
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
"You never wake up the baby." - E. Renteria, 01 August 2010
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
by S.F. Giangst on Oct 25, 2010 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions
STATS Q
Hey Xanthan, do you have an easy way to measure the quality of hitters that the respective pitching staffs have faced?
I’m wondering if so many games against the A’s and mariners means that the Rangers’ SP haven’t necessarily faced tougher hitters than a typical national league team.
Mark DeRosa, still existing.
Never mind, I found it
Using OPS, Quality of Hitters Faced
CJ Wilson – 0.708
Holland – 0.711
Lewis – 0.714
Hunter – 0.718
Lee – 0.721
Lincecum – 0.702
Sanchez – 0.703
Cain – 0.710
Bumgarner – 0.733
Mark DeRosa, still existing.
Yeah, BP has a report you can run that shows the average OPS of hitters faced.
Bottom 10 Min. 100 IP
Top 10 Min. 100 IP
It would be nice if you could run it by teams.
Ask me about my blog.
Do you have Exel 2007 ? If so you can right click on the web page, export tables from the page directly to an Excel spreadsheet and sort it.
Adopted Son: !Matt Downs I'll miss you my son.
Why do you seperate out pitching K/9 and BB/9?
These are both elements of FIP and therefore it seems to me that you are double counting them.
by BornRaisedAGiant on Oct 25, 2010 7:12 PM PDT reply actions
Good point, I think. But this wasn’t meant to be uber-serious, just some stats off the top of my head that I generally like to pay attention to. Of course, the Rangers had a better walk-rate than the Giants, so I’m not sure what your point is?
Ask me about my blog.
"I’m not sure what your point is?"
I wasn’t arguing that this showed an unfair advantage to either team but rather just that it it included duplicate data.
Personally I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched accross the board with the only significant advantages being the Giants team defense vs the Rangers team baserunning.
by BornRaisedAGiant on Oct 25, 2010 7:34 PM PDT up reply actions
If we are talking about significant advantages, I would have to think about adding their offense, too.
Ask me about my blog.
I would disagree.
They had their bats virtually all year while we made major adds as the year progressed and therefore the gap narrows when one adjusts for this. I think this is also true for our pitching advantage as they did not have Cliff Lee all year.
by BornRaisedAGiant on Oct 25, 2010 7:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Tell J.Sanchez to watch Lee, as Lee hardly ever walks anybody, and Sanchez at times walks almost everybody.
Or so it seems.
Hey Sanchez!
See that guy Lee over there, that guy who’s one of the top 3 pitchers in baseball? Pitch like him.
THE GREATEST OF ALL TIME (for 3 days in 1995).
by Mike Benjamin Hit King on Oct 25, 2010 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions
LOL!
"It feels awesome. Feels like when you were a kid and every guy gets a chance to be a hero, then you eat orange slices and kool-aid after the game. Except we’re nailing champagne right now." —Brian Wilson
by Sabean's_Folly on Oct 25, 2010 9:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Courtesy of Baseball Prospectus
Hey, everyone! I just crunched the numbers, and we have a chance!
The average SIERA for our four starters: 3.66. Theirs: 3.87. It’s true that Lee and Lewis have slightly better SIERAs than Lincecum and Cain, but the Giants overcome it on the back end of the rotation.
Average offensive “true average” for their nine hitters and ours: .285. Texas has the biggest boppers in the lineup no doubt, but they also carry two dead weights: Andrus and Molina. On the other hand, the TAs were calculated only on how the hitter has done with his current team, so Burrell and Ross would be worse if we included their whole season.
I’m of the “anything-can-happen-in-a-short-series” philosophy, so whatever … but I thought I’d point out you CAN at least make a sabermetric argument in favor of the Giants.
And for those who are curious
Here are the individual numbers:
3.03 Lee
3.50 Lewis
4.18 Wilson
4.78 Hunter
.288 Vlad, DH
.222 Molina, C
.291 Moreland, 1B
.290 Kinsler, 2B
.273 Young, 3B
.246 Andrus, SS
.320 Cruz, OF
.346 Hamilton, OF
.288 Murphy, OF
3.16 Lincecum
3.90 Cain
3.70 Sanchez
3.88 Bumgarner
.263 Pablo, DH
.300 Posey, C
.316 Huff, 1B
.272 Sanchez, 2B
.266 Uribe, 3B
.261 Renteria, SS
.304 Burrell, OF
.293 Torres, OF
.289 Ross, OF
I was told there was going to be no math test at the games?
by Lefty-is-crafty on Oct 27, 2010 9:03 AM PDT reply actions
The logos are for you :)
Rooting for Jose Casilla to take his K- and GB-inducing skills to the majors and join his brother.
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