FanPost

Rangers vs Giants, World Series Game #1 - Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Rangers and the Giants using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to the actual starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Saturday at 8:30 AM PST)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
 TEX SF C.Lee vs T.Lincecum TEX 54.34% 46.76% 57%

 

Notes:  I'm fully expecting Vegas to make Cliff Lee and the Rangers favorites in this game.  My simulator is obviously the outlier on this game, but to its credit Vegas and AccuScore seem to weight recent pitching performaces a little too heavy.  The Rangers will have some interesting questions to answer as far as what to do with Vlady when the DH is not used.  For Game #1 I have him sitting on the bench.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in below.

 

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. T.Lincecum total strikeouts: 7.5
3. J.Hamilton total bases minus B.Posey total bases: 0.5
4. C.Lee walks allowed: 0.5
5. Rangers bullpen total batters faced: 3.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SF 3-2   51 SF 7-3   101 SF 9-8
2 SF 2-1   52 TEX 7-5   102 TEX 9-7
3 SF 4-3   53 TEX 8-2   103 TEX 11-1
4 TEX 3-2   54 TEX 8-3   104 SF 10-0
5 TEX 2-1   55 TEX 7-6   105 TEX 11-4
6 SF 1-0   56 SF 7-5   106 TEX 9-8
7 SF 3-1   57 SF 7-0   107 TEX 11-5
8 TEX 4-3   58 TEX 8-1   108 SF 11-3
9 TEX 3-1   59 SF 8-2   109 SF 9-7
10 SF 5-4   60 TEX 7-0   110 TEX 10-6
11 SF 4-2   61 TEX 8-4   111 SF 11-4
12 SF 2-0   62 SF 8-1   112 SF 11-0
13 TEX 4-2   63 SF 8-3   113 TEX 12-2
14 SF 4-1   64 TEX 8-5   114 SF 10-5
15 TEX 1-0   65 TEX 9-2   115 TEX 11-0
16 SF 3-0   66 TEX 8-0   116 SF 12-1
17 TEX 2-0   67 SF 8-7   117 SF 12-3
18 TEX 4-1   68 SF 8-0   118 TEX 11-6
19 TEX 5-3   69 SF 8-5   119 SF 12-2
20 TEX 5-2   70 TEX 9-1   120 SF 10-9
21 SF 5-2   71 TEX 9-4   121 TEX 10-7
22 SF 5-3   72 TEX 9-3   122 TEX 12-3
23 TEX 5-4   73 SF 8-4   123 SF 10-7
24 TEX 3-0   74 SF 9-2   124 TEX 12-1
25 SF 4-0   75 SF 9-1   125 SF 10-6
26 SF 5-1   76 TEX 8-6   126 SF 12-4
27 TEX 5-1   77 TEX 10-2   127 SF 11-6
28 SF 6-5   78 SF 8-6   128 SF 12-0
29 TEX 6-3   79 SF 9-3   129 SF 11-5
30 TEX 6-2   80 SF 9-0   130 TEX 12-4
31 TEX 4-0   81 SF 10-1   131 TEX 12-5
32 SF 6-3   82 TEX 8-7   132 TEX 12-0
33 TEX 6-1   83 TEX 10-3   133 TEX 11-7
34 SF 6-2   84 SF 9-4   134 SF 10-8
35 TEX 6-4   85 TEX 9-5   135 SF 12-5
36 SF 5-0   86 TEX 9-0   136 SF 13-0
37 SF 6-1   87 TEX 10-4   137 TEX 13-3
38 TEX 6-5   88 SF 10-2   138 SF 13-1
39 SF 6-4   89 TEX 10-1   139 TEX 13-2
40 TEX 5-0   90 TEX 9-6   140 SF 13-2
41 TEX 7-2   91 SF 9-5   141 SF 11-7
42 TEX 7-3   92 SF 10-3   142 TEX 10-9
43 TEX 7-1   93 TEX 11-2   143 SF 13-3
44 TEX 7-4   94 SF 9-6   144 TEX 12-6
45 SF 6-0   95 SF 11-2   145 TEX 13-1
46 SF 7-2   96 TEX 10-0   146 TEX 10-8
47 TEX 6-0   97 TEX 11-3   147 TEX 13-4
48 SF 7-6   98 SF 11-1   148 SF 13-4
49 SF 7-1   99 SF 10-4   149 TEX 13-0
50 SF 7-4   100 TEX 10-5   150 SF 13-5

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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