FanPost

Phillies vs Giants, Game #5 NLCS Simulation

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Phillies and the Giants using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to the actual starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Thursday at 12:01 AM PST)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
 PHI SF R.Halladay vs T.Lincecum SF 52.94% 48.25% 48%

 

Notes:  Vegas is going down with the ship, circling the drain with the Phillies right down to the potentially last game - putting an extra 4-1/2 percent on the Phillies in Game #5.  Vegas has is expecting this game to have an expected 5.8 run total on average.  This low of a total is rare.  AccuScore results almost exactly match the simulator in today's game.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in below.  We've had two games in a row with correct final score guesses.  Let's see if we can make it three.

Simulator says Giants with 86% chance of winning the series.  Vegas says 78% chance.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams:5.5
2. T.Lincecum total strikeouts: 8.5
3. B.Posey plus C.Ross total bases: 3.5
4. R.Halladay total batters faced: 28.5
5. Giants hits plus Giants 2010 NLCS titles minus R.Halladay earned runs allowed: 5.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SF 2-1   51 PHI 8-2   101 PHI 9-7
2 SF 3-2   52 SF 7-4   102 PHI 11-4
3 SF 4-3   53 PHI 7-5   103 SF 10-4
4 PHI 3-2   54 PHI 8-3   104 SF 10-0
5 PHI 2-1   55 PHI 7-0   105 SF 9-7
6 SF 1-0   56 PHI 8-1   106 PHI 12-3
7 SF 3-1   57 PHI 8-4   107 PHI 9-8
8 PHI 3-1   58 SF 8-2   108 SF 11-2
9 PHI 4-3   59 PHI 7-6   109 PHI 12-1
10 SF 5-4   60 SF 7-0   110 SF 11-1
11 PHI 4-2   61 SF 7-5   111 PHI 12-2
12 SF 4-2   62 SF 8-1   112 PHI 11-5
13 SF 2-0   63 SF 8-3   113 PHI 10-7
14 SF 4-1   64 PHI 9-1   114 SF 10-5
15 PHI 4-1   65 PHI 9-2   115 SF 11-3
16 PHI 1-0   66 PHI 9-3   116 PHI 12-4
17 PHI 5-3   67 PHI 8-0   117 PHI 11-0
18 SF 3-0   68 PHI 8-5   118 SF 11-4
19 PHI 5-2   69 SF 8-4   119 SF 12-2
20 PHI 2-0   70 SF 8-7   120 PHI 11-6
21 PHI 5-4   71 SF 9-2   121 PHI 10-8
22 SF 5-2   72 PHI 9-4   122 SF 11-0
23 SF 5-3   73 SF 8-5   123 SF 10-6
24 PHI 5-1   74 SF 8-0   124 SF 11-5
25 SF 6-5   75 PHI 8-6   125 PHI 13-3
26 SF 5-1   76 PHI 9-5   126 PHI 13-2
27 PHI 3-0   77 SF 8-6   127 PHI 12-5
28 SF 4-0   78 SF 9-1   128 SF 10-7
29 PHI 6-2   79 PHI 8-7   129 SF 12-1
30 PHI 6-3   80 PHI 10-3   130 PHI 11-7
31 PHI 4-0   81 PHI 10-2   131 SF 12-0
32 SF 6-3   82 SF 9-3   132 PHI 13-4
33 SF 6-2   83 PHI 10-1   133 SF 10-9
34 PHI 6-1   84 PHI 9-0   134 SF 12-3
35 SF 5-0   85 SF 9-4   135 SF 12-4
36 PHI 6-4   86 SF 9-0   136 SF 11-6
37 SF 6-4   87 PHI 10-4   137 SF 10-8
38 PHI 6-5   88 PHI 9-6   138 PHI 13-1
39 SF 6-1   89 SF 10-1   139 PHI 10-9
40 PHI 5-0   90 PHI 11-2   140 SF 13-2
41 PHI 7-2   91 SF 9-5   141 PHI 12-6
42 PHI 7-3   92 SF 10-2   142 PHI 13-5
43 PHI 7-1   93 PHI 10-5   143 PHI 12-0
44 SF 7-6   94 SF 9-8   144 SF 12-5
45 PHI 7-4   95 SF 9-6   145 PHI 14-2
46 SF 7-2   96 PHI 10-0   146 SF 13-1
47 SF 6-0   97 PHI 11-3   147 PHI 13-0
48 PHI 6-0   98 PHI 11-1   148 PHI 12-7
49 SF 7-1   99 SF 10-3   149 SF 11-7
50 SF 7-3   100 PHI 10-6   150 PHI 14-1

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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