FanPost

Phillies vs Giants, NLCS Game #3

I used my simulator to simulate 100000 baseball games between the Phillies and the Giants using what to the best of my knowledge will be close to the actual starting lineups.  The simulator outputs a win probability for each team, along with the average total runs scored, a distribution matrix of all the final scores and how often they occurred, and an averaged box score tally of all games combined.  The simulator takes into account such things as defense, park factors, home field advantage, pitchers tiring and a proprietary set of hitter and pitcher projections that are calibrated on a daily basis.  There are many references to Vegas win probabilities.  This is just a measuring stick I use to determine how well my simulator does.  This by no means is meant as a tool to use to gamble on baseball games, it is more of an exercise in analyzing baseball games.  You may find it strange that there are so many one run games listed as the most likely score, and that the home team is always favored to win in the top couple of scores.  This is due to basic math and the way that baseball rules play out of having the home team bat last.  Here is a great article explaining this phenomenon.  Here are the latest Vegas MLB odds.

Today's Results... (Last simulation ran Monday at 9:45 PM PST)

Visitors Home Pitching Matchup Favorite Vegas Win Prob Simulator Win Prob AccuScore
 PHI SF C.Hamels vs M.Cain PHI 52.15% 48.50% 48%

 

Notes:  The simulator jumps back in favor the Giants in Game #3, with a nearly identical win probability as AccuScore.  The general public seem to be looking for a shutdown game from Cole Hamels.  Both Hamels and Cain have been a little lucky in terms of their shiny ERAs during the regular season, but both are still solid if not excellent pitchers.  Get your game score and over/under guesses in below.

Over/Under Questions:

1. Total runs scored both teams: 6.5
2. M.Cain total strikeouts: 6.5
3. Giants number of bullpen pitchers used: 2.5
4. C.Hamels strikeouts minus hits allowed: 1.5
5. R.Howard plus C.Utley total bases minus B.Posey plus A.Huff total bases: 1.5

Sample Answer: UOOUU

 

Top 150 Most Likely Scores

1 SF 3-2   51 SF 7-4   101 SF 10-4
2 SF 2-1   52 SF 6-0   102 PHI 10-6
3 SF 4-3   53 PHI 8-2   103 SF 11-3
4 PHI 3-2   54 PHI 8-1   104 PHI 11-4
5 PHI 2-1   55 SF 7-5   105 SF 11-2
6 PHI 4-3   56 PHI 7-6   106 PHI 11-1
7 SF 1-0   57 PHI 8-3   107 SF 9-7
8 SF 5-4   58 PHI 8-4   108 SF 10-5
9 PHI 3-1   59 PHI 7-0   109 SF 11-1
10 PHI 4-2   60 SF 8-3   110 SF 10-0
11 SF 3-1   61 SF 8-1   111 SF 11-4
12 SF 4-2   62 SF 8-2   112 PHI 12-3
13 PHI 4-1   63 PHI 8-5   113 SF 10-7
14 SF 4-1   64 SF 7-0   114 PHI 10-7
15 SF 2-0   65 SF 8-7   115 PHI 11-5
16 PHI 5-4   66 PHI 9-3   116 PHI 11-0
17 PHI 5-3   67 SF 8-4   117 PHI 12-2
18 PHI 5-2   68 PHI 9-2   118 SF 11-0
19 SF 5-2   69 SF 8-5   119 PHI 12-1
20 PHI 1-0   70 PHI 8-6   120 SF 11-5
21 SF 5-3   71 PHI 9-1   121 SF 10-6
22 PHI 2-0   72 PHI 8-0   122 SF 10-9
23 SF 6-5   73 PHI 9-4   123 PHI 11-7
24 SF 3-0   74 SF 8-0   124 PHI 12-4
25 PHI 5-1   75 SF 9-2   125 PHI 10-8
26 PHI 3-0   76 SF 9-3   126 SF 12-2
27 SF 5-1   77 SF 8-6   127 PHI 11-6
28 PHI 6-2   78 SF 9-1   128 SF 12-3
29 PHI 6-3   79 PHI 8-7   129 PHI 12-5
30 SF 6-3   80 PHI 10-2   130 SF 12-1
31 PHI 6-4   81 PHI 9-5   131 SF 11-6
32 SF 4-0   82 SF 9-4   132 PHI 13-4
33 PHI 4-0   83 PHI 9-6   133 SF 10-8
34 PHI 6-5   84 PHI 10-3   134 PHI 10-9
35 SF 6-2   85 SF 9-5   135 SF 12-0
36 SF 6-4   86 SF 10-3   136 SF 11-7
37 PHI 6-1   87 PHI 10-1   137 SF 12-4
38 SF 6-1   88 PHI 9-0   138 PHI 12-6
39 PHI 5-0   89 PHI 9-7   139 PHI 12-0
40 PHI 7-2   90 PHI 10-4   140 PHI 13-3
41 SF 5-0   91 PHI 10-5   141 PHI 13-2
42 SF 7-6   92 SF 10-2   142 PHI 13-1
43 PHI 7-4   93 SF 9-8   143 SF 13-4
44 PHI 7-3   94 SF 9-0   144 PHI 13-0
45 SF 7-2   95 PHI 11-2   145 SF 13-2
46 PHI 7-1   96 SF 9-6   146 SF 12-5
47 SF 7-1   97 SF 10-1   147 SF 14-2
48 SF 7-3   98 PHI 9-8   148 SF 11-8
49 PHI 7-5   99 PHI 11-3   149 SF 12-6
50 PHI 6-0   100 PHI 10-0   150 PHI 12-8



This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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