Why I'm stupid enough to think the Giants have a shot

does everyone really think it would require a fluke for the giants to win?

Late post is late (on the east coast). I’ll wake up to your comments tomorrow, good night folks.

I really don’t think the matchup is as lopsided as the media is saying it is. What worries me more than anything is the Phillies’ home-field advantage.

Yes

80% of our runs were driven in by DeRosa & Whiteside.

Nate AND Bowker started…weird

And it’s obvious you plan this….why? is the question…

All playoff coverage would be greatly improved if it took this view.

An hour-long playoff preview on MLB Network starts with the host saying “All the teams are good, and baseball is weird, so who knows?” Then he shrugs, and stares directly into the camera, without blinking, for the remaining 59 minutes (with occasional commercial breaks).

The front-page story on the ESPN website promises an in-depth look at the MLB playoff picture. The article opens with “All the teams are good, and baseball is weird, so who knows?” followed by white space that fills the rest of the screen, and is continued across six Web pages.

The headline on the sports section of the newspaper reads “Playoffs: All teams good, baseball weird; who knows?” The rest of the space that would normally be taken up by the article is sold as ad space for a movie about a vampire who is elected to public office (it’s a metaphor; 79% on Rotten Tomatoes).

SAITSIGT?

Zito only gave up 4 runs against the Phillies, he should start!

And the playoffs are groups of small sample sizes getting together, having a few drinks, and playing “Truth or Dare” until someone does something they regret.

Grant, this is why I read this site.

Pinstripe Alley used to have a writer who would throw in these sorts of crazy analogies. Then they replaced her with a guy who makes awkward attempts at jokes, then explains why he thinks they’re funny. He also makes, like, six main-page posts per day. sigh

But yes. Last year, the Nationals took two out of three in an interleague series against the Yankees. The Phillies, on the whole, are probably a better team than the Giants. But that doesn’t mean they’re going to win. Small sample size is the reason we actually play these games.

Baseball is a hummingbird on cocaine, and we’re just fans trying to catch it with a lasso made out of dental floss.

Awesome.

. . . the point is certainly correct. The Phillies may be slightly the better team overall, but certainly not by any such margin as to make the contest lopsided. Indeed, baseball is a game of nice measurements, requiring 162 games to sort out who’s who and what’s what, and even then often doing it only by a hair.

Taking a very, very rough and crude look at by how much each team’s stat lines for offense and defense varied from expectations, and then at how actual runs scored and allowed varied from the stat-line projections, then at games-won projections from runs, I’d guess—and the analysis was so crude that it’s not much but a guess—that the likeliest outcome is the Phils in 7 games. But a 4-3 margin is so dicey that in effect we’re saying “anything can happen, and none of it will be anything that can be called a real surprise.”

(The look was rough and crude because it was at the team level, making no allowance for individual players likely to appear.)

Sabean delenda est!

was shameful on KNBR today. Frothing at the teat of the Oracle of Bristol.

Is that what anyone really thinks? Does anyone really think that a sample size of one, two, or three games is worth anything?

Yes. Many, many, many people.

Closer to 48 and a half times, really.

My dog’s had stomach problems all week, and she just pooped a bright, orange turd.

The Giants have a chance because their starting pitching is just as good as Philadelphia’s. Oh, and the offense isn’t as inferior as everyone thinks. Oh, and and because I said so and I’m like smart and stuff.

/HT troymccluresf

Last year, we were completely out classed by the Phillies.

Last year, we had one player at one position who was better than his Philly equivalent.

Last year, Bengie Molina hit cleanup.

And last year, we took the season series with Philadelphia 4-3.

We can stand toe to toe with this Philly team. They have TWO players that are significantly better than their Giants counterparts. That’s it. Two. And we have the pitchers who can take them.

There is no reason to believe we can’t beat this Philly team. We have in the past, we’ve played good baseball all year. This is our time. Theirs is over. Let’s do this.