SB Nation Bay Area Editor's Pick
Why NOT the Giants?
by mlb22 on Oct 13, 2010 1:19 AM PDT
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** As emailed this afternoon to a circle of non-Giants fans. Yes, long posts are long. Have a beer. ***
So before you laugh too hard, let me make my case why it's no sure thing that the Phillies are going to dismantle the Giants and - dare I say it - explain how San Francisco may actually emerge victorious in this series.
- 4) ESPN has an odd way of looking at things
You see, our friends at ESPN have a lot of money. Much of that money comes from the pockets of folks in Boston, New York, and Philadelphia. Lots of that money is spent on televising games of teams in those cities. And lots of some of that money is spent on shiny new graphics that look much better than what you'd find on, say, the old 1990s CNNSI telecasts. Or anywhere else.
If you've watched Baseball Tonight or Sportscenter, even just once, you'll notice that just about every sentence that comes out of the mouth of an anchor or analyst is backed up with nifty CG boards chalk-full of statistics that back up what's being said. So much so, that it begs the chicken-egg question: which came first, the writing of the CG board, or the words on the teleprompter?
Take it from someone who knows: the best graphics boards are the ones that have stats that look a little more outrageous than they really are. Outrageous, because the numbers tell two completely separate tales, or two impossibly similar ones. It seems the data most being used to compare the Phils and Giants are the numbers which emerged out of a whopping sample size of six games. And yet, those six games resulted in a 3-3 split.
We're being reminded that the Phillies are going to destroy the Giants because Chase Utley hit home runs in a World Series game against the Yankees (score one for relevance). We're reminded that Roy Halladay is a god because he no-hit the Reds, yet we're not reminded of the fact that this year, he did lose to, well, the Giants. They tell us that Roy Oswalt is the best trade acquisition of the year, which clearly trumps the fact that the Giants have beaten him a few times this year.
ESPN decided long ago that Philadelphia was the best team in the National League, and I am not disputing this claim. But once this decision was made, the "experts" rolled up their sleeves and got to cherry-pickin', because sure enough, they need to look smart. Wake me up when they dig up the CG that says "sometimes the best team doesn't win in a small-sample-size series. And that's all the Giants need to do.
- 3) This H20 Dominance theory is all wet
Are Halladay, Oswalt, and Cole Hamels good? Of course they are. They are fantastic. Could you imagine if Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Jonathan Sanchez pitched in the Eastern time zone? I mean, wouldn't it be cute if someone said they were built for the NLCS because their initials spell L-C-S?
OK, no no no. I am not minimizing the great pitching of the Phils' Big 3. But the Giants' Big 3 are every bit as good. At least, the media would certainly tell you that if they were East Coast pitchers with the same results... at least recently.
- 2) Good pitchers do not faze the Giants
Who cares that we are facing those guys? Hell, the guy that scares me the most is Joe Blanton, because by most measures, he is average, and borderline suck. And that's the type of pitcher the Giants NEVER beat (large sample sizes to prove it). The Giants are full of a bunch of average hitters, some of whom actually have good at-bats but are held back by their, well, lack of talent. Check out the names of some of these Giant killers:
Derek Lowe, Tim Stauffer, Clayton Richard, Vicente Padilla, Jason Hammel... and the beat goes on.
The point is, EVERY pitcher this lineup faces has the potential to be Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, or Cole Hamels. This team has faced great pitching all year, and still won 92 games and a playoff series. They are used to this stress. They find ways to win by embarrassing themselves offensively, but they win.
- 1) Things that WILL supposedly happen vs. things that HAVE happened
Will: The Phillies will destroy the Giants because the Phillies have the Big 3.
Have: The Giants led the majors in ERA. Giants starters and relievers posted far superior numbers than their cheesesteak counterparts. The Giants won three of the six games against Philadelphia, and were a Jayson Werth ducksnort away from being 4-2. This doesn't prove supremacy, but it does prove that it doesn't take an act from God for the Giants to compete well.
Will: The Phillies will destroy the Giants because the Phillies have a deeper lineup than San Francisco.
Have: The Giants won three of the six games against Philadelphia, when the Phillies were injured and the Giants were, amazingly, playing a lineup worse than the current unit. The replacements for Utley and Howard and Rollins were the kind of guys the Giants rolled out on a daily basis for far too long.
Will: The Phillies will destroy the Giants because, well, just because.
Have: Any playoff series is a crapshoot. Did you know that the Phillies once lost three straight to the Mets? and three of four to the Pirates? There's a decent chance the Phils would be favored to beat those two powerhouses in the playoffs. But they still lost. Because in any seven-game stretch, weird things can happen. A star player can get injured. A defender could get spooked into three errors in a game. The Phillies bullpen could be exactly what we think they should be. Todd Wellemeyer could outpitch Roy Halladay (although not in this series). Buster Posey could walk on water and throw out Shane Victorino four times in a game. Pat Burrell could ex-team his ass all over Philly's face. Juan Uribe could lay off a first pitch. Jonathan Sanchez could be the only Giant to win in Citizen's Bank Ballpark (like he was this year), and the Giants could STILL win the series.
But to predict a series based on what the paperwork tells you is to forget what baseball is all about. Baseball is about the balls that hit the chalk line and are called foul by a fat blind ump. It's about the superstar who pulls a quad while trying to leg out a ball hit into triples alley at AT&T. It's about the Aubrey Huff inside-the-park HR because the visitor doesn't know how to play the wall. It's about the fact that Roy Halladay had more than one mediocre start this year, and IT ONLY TAKES ONE to take a loss. It's about the fact that you don't reach the LCS unless you're a good team.
The Phillies have been there twice in a row. The Giants, and most of their players, haven't even sniffed the World Series. I'll go with the hungrier team... the team with enough lefties to shut down the Phillies (who were shut down for a month - IT CAN BE DONE, HALLELUJAH!). I'll go with the better bullpen, where game results still count when a SP doesn't get the decision. I'll go with the team that's faced good pitching all year (not the Phillies). I'll go with the team that won't panic if they lose one or two of the first two games. I'll go with the team I love, but not because I love them.
Prediction: Giants in 6.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Good read.
i am predicting the Giants win it at home in 5.
by BornRaisedAGiant on Oct 13, 2010 1:48 AM PDT reply actions
Good read.
I’m predicting the Giants will take it in 6. Matt Cain puts it all together and finally gets his due.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
"You never wake up the baby." - E. Renteria, 01 August 2010
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
People, PEOPLE. Please.
This is Giants Baseball.
Therefore, this is Torture.
Therefore…Giants in 7. And extra innings. AND something weird like Pat Burrell smacks what should be a clutch homer but it hits a bird and the bird and ball drop out of the sky and clonk Jayson Werth on the head and then in the bottom of the fifteenth, he’s a little woozy when relief pitcher Matt Cain throws his heretofore unseen eephus pitch on a 3-2 count and he strikes out and the Giants win.
I left my swagger in my other pants.
Do not defame the eephus
It will make a mockery of your awesome fastball hitter with its 50 MPH goodness.
Ain't no Posey like a Buster Posey cause a Buster Posey don't stop...hitting.
Giants baseball: We're stupid enough to do that (TM)
Good Stuff
I think that most of us around here believe anything can happen. But one other point, the worst type of pitcher for the Giants to face is the sinker, slider, curve, kitchen-sink type because they are such hackers. However, I believe this helps them against power pitchers, they start early and swing just as hard, but are a team in which every player can take the opposing pitcher deep with the exception of Franchez. Also, good pitchers are around the plate more, which actually helps guys like Uribe who decide which pitches to swing at 3 hours before game time.
The other thing no one is talking about is the fact that Charlie Manuel is a pretty bad manager. He makes stupid decisions and says stupid things, so while Bochy may not be the second coming of John McGraw, the Giants should have a decided edge in that department.
I HATE YOU PABLO!
Giants Front Office....Torture!
Nice post
The Giants definitely have a chance with their pitching, that’s been my mantra for a few years now.
FYI, Jason Stark was on KNBR this morning and said that Jonathan Sanchez is the Phillies worst nightmare, that he has the stuff that can pitch to their lineup and take them. He’s still going Philly because they were his pick in the pre-season, but he gave the Giants respect this morning, so no east coast bias there, at least this morning.
The beauty of the MLB playoffs is that a great dominant team like the Phillies don’t win every game, don’t come close to it, unlike football or basketball. That automatically gives the underdog a very good chance of winning the series. Add to it that pitchers can take over a game (unlike a hitter: he can still hit 3 homers but if the rest of the lineup is shut down, they can lose 4-3) and shut down the best of hitters – and we have four pitchers who can do that regularly – then the GIants have a very good chance of winning this series (not probable chance, but I’ll take good chance anyday).
I think the series will go 7 games – our pitchers are still riding the high surf that they have rode excellently for the most part since September rolled in, so each game should be close, and some of the games we won against the Braves would tip to Phillies in this series. Still, with Burrell on our team, I cannot help but think that he has inside knowledge of the Phillies team that he will help our players out with, and that will tip it our way. Also, except for Posey and Ross, the rest of our hitters were either too amped up or too psyched out to contribute, but with the Braves series plus time off now to rest and think, I have to think that some will start delivering like they did in September, particularly Huff, Torres, and Sandoval.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"The objective is that World Series ring" - The Kid
"I think my role here has changed a little bit. I'm counted on a little more." - Posey after hitting 12-24 with 4 homers after Molina trade
"A lot of swearing, a lot of screaming – and a lot of alcohol." - The Kid, about the playoffs
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Oct 13, 2010 11:05 AM PDT reply actions
Agree with this:
Also, except for Posey and Ross, the rest of our hitters were either too amped up or too psyched out to contribute, but with the Braves series plus time off now to rest and think, I have to think that some will start delivering like they did in September, particularly Huff, Torres, and Sandoval.
I hope they are able to calm down and do what we know they can do.
Have you ever thrown a fist full of glitter in the air?
♥ 2010 San Francisco Giants ♥
♥ McCoven ♥
Sabes Prediction (with h/t to The Bible):
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Oct 13, 2010 12:38 PM PDT reply actions
I mean, wouldn't it be cute if someone said they were built for the NLCS because their initials spell L-C-S?
mind blown.
Great read!
Go Giants!!!!
Uhm. Nice Post. Right. Long Post Is Long
Point 4. ESPN. I did not realize that anybody watched it for purposes of baseball insight other than they have an easy website to navigate for baseball card stats and updated game scores. If you want a good model for merchandising useless services and products though, its awesome.
Point 3. Related to point 4. Media hype. Who gives a shit what media hacks think. There is more baseball though provoking offerings here in one day than a month of Baseball Tonight or KNBR blabbercasts.. Sports gossipers are like divorce attorneys, only more poorly dressed. I can’t tell where TMZ stops and Sports starts anymore
Point 2. Correct. Good pitchers don’t faze the Giants. The Giants are equally worthless against mediocre pitching. That is nothing new, only a few of the faces have changed. But they are important ones. Lightning in a bottle, run far, and fast with it as long as you can.
Point 1. Its about who is playing well, and by playing well, I mean who is making fewer mistakes then their opponents, during the next 5 to 10 days.
Every team makes mistakes. The teams that win the most will take the most advantage of the other teams mistakes. That has been a Yankee trademark since the 50s. Its something that every winning team in every sport makes, and its not minimizing one’s own mistakes that every losing team makes.
There is absolutely no reason whatsoever to not believe the Giants will continue to take advantage of their opponents mistakes as they did against Atlanta. The Phillies are capable of making plenty of mistakes.
The Giants swept the Braves at home. With their no 3. and no. 4 pitchers. After their go-to guys Cain, Romo and Wilson gave up a 4-0 lead to lose eventually in the 10th inning, than having to travel to the land of evil tomohawks where the Braves had a Rockie-like dominance over opponents during the year, spend an off-day grinding on it.
Like I said, its all about who plays better for the next several days. There is no reason to believe the Giants can’t do that.
(crap long reply, is long reply)
Nice
Definitely – the Giants have a good shot to win this series, and people should recognize that. Short series, Giants have great pitching, things can happen. I’m looking forward to it.
I feel prickishly demanding!
I couldn't be prouder of my recent adoptee - Tim Lincecum's dealer. He provides the secret fuel behind both Cy Youngs. Also, he taught Timmy the change-up.
by giantsfansince1981 on Oct 13, 2010 1:44 PM PDT reply actions
Nice job. Always good posts from you, mlb22
I am of the mindset that I can still expect the Phillies to utterly dominate the Giants but still be entertained by this series, which is all I can ask for. If the Giants actually manage to put up a fight (and, as you point out, there’s every reason to believe that they can) it’ll make the games that much better.
rec'd
I'm still in the old thread.
"IT'S POSEY, YOU IDIOT." - Jon Miller
Clayton Tanner, the Flying Squirrel!
by walkoff baltimore chop on Oct 13, 2010 2:00 PM PDT reply actions
I'm just going to hang out in here
and keep re-reading these posts. It’s making me much more calm.
The Giants swept the Braves at home. With their no 3. and no. 4 pitchers. After their go-to guys Cain, Romo and Wilson gave up a 4-0 lead to lose eventually in the 10th inning, than having to travel to the land of evil tomohawks where the Braves had a Rockie-like dominance over opponents during the year, spend an off-day grinding on it.
Like I said, its all about who plays better for the next several days. There is no reason to believe the Giants can’t do that.
Have you ever thrown a fist full of glitter in the air?
♥ 2010 San Francisco Giants ♥
♥ McCoven ♥
yeah me too. when i leave mcc, even for a minute, i am terrorized by ESPN telling me it’s impossible.
by giant4life83 on Oct 14, 2010 1:17 AM PDT up reply actions
ESPN is desperate for an all-Eastern time zone World Series because it’s staffed by lazy hacks.
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
"You never wake up the baby." - E. Renteria, 01 August 2010
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
by S.F. Giangst on Oct 14, 2010 2:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Well, and because the Eastern time zone has a larger population than any other time zone.
by Missing Barry on Oct 14, 2010 7:11 AM PDT up reply actions
By a surprisingly large margin.
ET: 48%
CT: 29%
PT: 17%
MT: 6%
Considering that California has something like 12% all by itself, that’s remarkable.
Sabean delenda est!
Professional baseball analyst since 1980.
Hey, did anyone tell you the Giants are playing the PHILLIES!
You are aware, are you not?
This team has NEVER been beaten, they went 194-0 this season.
Q: Did you ever make an offer for Vladimir Guerrero?
Sabean: In a word: No. If we had signed Guerrero or [Gary] Sheffield, we would have been without [Long list of replacement level vets]—obviously not being able to field a competitive team, especially from an experience standpoint, given our level of spending.
Butt butt butt it's the freaking Phillies
How how how can we possibly hang with a East Coast Battleship? Giants in five.
by Lefty-is-crafty on Oct 13, 2010 3:47 PM PDT reply actions
Is that Buddy Holly in the Middle?
Damnit, they always get the best Free Agents!
Brian Wilson: "Don't Quote Me"
Buster Posey: "I Ain't Havin' It"
Pat Burrell: "The Patural"
by slackersphere17 on Oct 14, 2010 9:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Phraud?
Phillies held to 7 earned runs by the Reds while playing in two band-boxes.
Maybe an ophense that’s opherrated?
31 May 2007, 21:38 EST - the last time Matteh's career W-L wasn't below .500
"You never wake up the baby." - E. Renteria, 01 August 2010
Lowering the Quality of Internet Discourse Since 1985™
Phuck, yeah, sez Timmeh.
He is the World's Most Annoying Rooster.
by gallo del cielo on Oct 13, 2010 8:40 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, I think you're both phabulous!
Have you ever thrown a fist full of glitter in the air?
♥ 2010 San Francisco Giants ♥
♥ McCoven ♥
I appreciate their philanthropy.
Utter frustration and futility.
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Oct 14, 2010 6:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Just remember Cleveland was the heavy favorite in 1954, many favored them for the sweep.
The Indians had Vic Wertz, but the giants, had the real secret weapon, Willie Mays’ defense.
Call Jeff Gilooly!
Utter frustration and futility.
Adopted 'nephew' to the ever avuncular and always awesome Jon Miller
by Johnny Disaster on Oct 14, 2010 6:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I spent all year fretting over the team, hoping to make the playoffs. Once they did, I felt like we were almost playing with house money, since the team was really only put together in July, so hey, we made the playoffs, get everyone some experience in the atmosphere for the future runs, and if it’s an early exit, so be it. So I detached emotionally, said “it’s been a hell of a season”, and watched them take on Atlanta, hoping for the best, but prepared for the worst.
But they started winning, and I got sucked back in. With the advancement to the NLCS, the sporting nation seems to have acknowledged that our Giants are for real, and should be taken seriously. Considering what the Opening Day lineup consisted of, the rewarded respect of earning the trip to the NLCS is the most I could ask of this 2010 team. This is not to even mention the personal side of how great this is as a loyal fan for many years.
Considering the challenge we now face in Philly, sure, we can win, I really do believe we can.
But, for the first time in 7 years, if the season ended with a loss, it won’t feel like we were let down. It won’t feel like the team just didn’t get it done, again. It won’t be another season with wasted opportunities. It is not another season to forget. No matter even how it goes down (short of 4 perfect games), we have every right to hold our heads high.
It truly was, and I sure hope will continue to be, magic inside.
by giant4life83 on Oct 14, 2010 1:38 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Yeah, just play smart, competitive ball
If the breaks go their way, cool! If the breaks go the Phillies way, it’s still be the most fun season I’ve followed.
Proudly adopted Aubrey Huff. You can't beat that!
Why NOT the Giants?
Because we are not allowed good things.
"Failure is not fatal, but failure to change might be." - John Wooden
Did you know that the Phillies once lost three straight to the Mets?
Dude, not only did they lose 3 straight, they got shutout in 3 straight to the Mets. 8-0, 5-0, 3-0 Mets. They had their starting lineup other than Jimmy Rollins, too.
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