RESPECT THE KLAW (Top 100 Prospects for Insiders Only)
4. Posey (Carlos Santana is ahead of him at #3)
TWENTY EIGHT! - Bumgarner
84. Wheeler
I think I can get away with this little?
Posey reached the majors less than 14 months after signing his first pro contract on the strength of his bat and his advanced feel for catching, amazing for someone who only became a full-time catcher in 2007. Posey has a short, compact stroke with excellent bat control and sprays the field with line drives. He doesn't have much raw power on account of his size and the presence of just a little loft in his swing, but he makes up for it with good plate discipline, and he should post good on-base percentages in the majors. As a catcher, he has soft hands and good athleticism behind the dish with a plus arm, unsurprising for someone who was a part-time reliever in college. There's some concern about Posey's trouble catching better fastballs -- and Giants pitchers do bring the heat -- when he reached the majors, but it's possible that was merely exhaustion from Posey's first full pro season and rust from the fact that San Francisco brought him up only to have Bruce Bochy let him rot on the bench for three weeks. He could catch every day for the Giants right now if they weren't too busy throwing money at the likes of Bengie Molina.
over 2 years ago
ResDog
101 comments
0 recs |
Email
PrintComments
Soft hands
Calm eyes
Can’t lose!
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Jan 28, 2010 3:13 PM PST up reply actions
So Posey >> Molina huh?
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Jan 28, 2010 10:28 AM PST reply actions
AND
Dumb dirt >>>>>>>>>>>> Bochy
Matt Cain: throwing complete game shutouts since 06'. No big deal.
by cain1rstballothof on Jan 28, 2010 10:28 AM PST up reply actions
I’m kinda surprised that HS pitchers are so high. I feel like they are really an unknown.
My career path, have you seen it?
by say hey nation on Jan 28, 2010 10:35 AM PST reply actions
Matzek at 22
My career path, have you seen it?
by say hey nation on Jan 28, 2010 10:36 AM PST up reply actions
...
I’m losing a lot of respect for Keith Law. Matzek gets a higher ranking than Bumgarner without even throwing a pitch? I get that Bumgarner’s velocity dropped last year, but is that really reason to put him so low? It’s not like he struggled with just a plus fastball instead of a plus plus fastball.
To further test the copyright privileges...
Bumgarner throws from a low arm slot — well below 3/4 — and has had some trouble against right-handed hitters since they see the ball very well out of his hand, although the slot gives him good tailing life on his fastball.
He’s a big kid who has started to fill out and could add more to his 6-foot-4 frame, but the loss of velocity this year and his related difficulty in missing bats raise serious questions about how high his ceiling really is.
The Giants Way™"If anybody deserves credit for this year’s turnaround it’s these two people, Brian and Bruce," Neukom said. "The encouraging thing is we think we’re back to playing baseball the way it ought to be played."
I don’t get what makes Matzek 22 and Turner 80 and Wheeler 86, in any case.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
I loved Matzek too
But the dude broke my heart :-(
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Whomever Sabean signs this off-season will make a good platoon partner with Ryan Gark-ohh... nevermind...
Doc (Minneapolis)
I find it hard to believe you have the Giants as your 20th ranked organization. They have two of the top 10 prospects in the game (Posey, Bumgarner), several up-and-coming bats who had very good seasons (Neal, Kieschnick, Pill) and a bunch of high upside prospects in the levels (Adrianza, Peguero, Crawford, Noonan, Fairley, Dominguez, R. Rodriguez). Not to mention their always strong stable of arms (Wheeler, Joaquin, Sosa, Snyder, Tanner, Surkamp). I’m not saying they should be a top-3 organization, but they’re no worse than the 10th best in baseball right now.
Ray A. (San Francisco, CA)
How did the Giants minor league system drop so low on the list? They still have Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, Thomas Neal, Zach Wheeler, and a pretty underrated recent draft pick in Chris Dominguez, all below the age of 23.
Klaw
(1:18 PM)
Same question, asked twice. First of all, Bumgarner took a big step back, Villalona is effectively out of baseball, Conor Gillaspie had a mediocre pro debut, I’m not a big Crawford believer, Chris Dominguez isn’t very good (a college senior with a hole in his swing the size of the rock of Gibraltar) … that’s why they dropped. And I’m not sure how you (Doc) could argue they’re top 10 – you’ve got all the other systems analyzed and ranked? You’re citing guys like Fairley (terrible), Noonan (doesn’t walk, massive arm bar), Peguero (makes Noonan look like Adam Dunn in the walks department), Rodriguez (like him, but he’s a ton of projection right now)… really, almost every system has guys like that in low-A and below.
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
I need some of this after reading that
it hurts
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
He didn’t mention Neal at all there…
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
He doesn’t believe.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
Well, he must only believe in things that are real.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Jan 28, 2010 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
That was fun.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Jan 28, 2010 11:20 AM PST up reply actions
I think we’re witnessing jponry, slowing walking off the Fred Lewis Bandwagon, and buying tickets for the next Neal Express.
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
I’m just saying, I was expecting him to tear Neal apart or something, so I guess I’m glad he didn’t
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
No Tommy Joseph
Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard
by SoFa King Mike on Jan 28, 2010 11:16 AM PST up reply actions
One of these things is not like the other
several up-and-coming bats who had very good seasons (Neal, Kieschnick, Pill)
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010
Losing respect for KLaw's analysis
If one would just look at Noonan’s monthly walks, one could see that Noonan, while horrible with the walks overall, has been progressing, if viewed on a monthly basis:
2008: really horrible ratios for BB/K throughout the year, but the he really improved in the last month, August, though still not the greatest (though OK).
2009: Keeps the ratio OK for most of the season, then from August on, he moved it to the area that the experts said he would be when we drafted him by greatly improving his strikeout rate, which had been consistently bad his whole pro career until August.
I had been terribly disappointed with Noonan until this off-season when I saw his monthly stats. He has been steadily improving both his ability to walk, and now his ability to avoid the strikeouts.
The hitter we were told about when we drafted him is appearing, and it makes good sense that he had been struggling, he is 2-3 years younger than most of the pitchers he has been hitting against the past two seasons, but I think it is a great sign that he has been gradually improving over time.
I am much more excited about his prospects now, plus he was also hampered by two parks that were pitchers parks in Augusta and San Jose, whereas the Richmond Flying Squirrels (that won’t ever get too old for me to laugh about) have a neutral park, according to BP’s park factors when Richmond was an Atlanta affiliate. I think he’s going to be a pleasant surprise for us in 2010 as I think he’s being overlooked by most prospect analysts.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"The objective is that World Series ring" - The Kid
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 28, 2010 5:28 PM PST up reply actions
Law hates Noonan’s “arm bar”. A lot. Always has.
by Missing Barry on Jan 28, 2010 5:51 PM PST up reply actions
your overrating of Nick Noonan is causing you to lose respect for Keith Law’s analysis?
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jan 28, 2010 6:33 PM PST up reply actions
Man, he ranks our farm system #20 behind the Dodgers:
20. San Francisco Giants
A number of promising prospects here had disappointing seasons, so it’s a system that could bounce back in 2010 even without a major infusion of talent. The Giants still have two to four very high-ceiling guys, but the supporting cast is thinner than it looked a year ago.
"What makes you think you're Jesus Christ?"
"Well, when I pray I seem to be talking to myself"
Obey the KLaw
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006. Bringing you all your California League and New York-Penn League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jan 28, 2010 10:45 AM PST reply actions
Darn it I knew it was something like that. I haven’t read his stuff lately, I didn’t even realize I still had ESPN Insider until I got a magazine in the mail a few weeks ago. ESPN had me an auto-pay on my credit card.
The Giants Way™"If anybody deserves credit for this year’s turnaround it’s these two people, Brian and Bruce," Neukom said. "The encouraging thing is we think we’re back to playing baseball the way it ought to be played."
j (cin)
Miguel Sano close to making this list or just too young?
Klaw
(2:04 PM)
Um…
LOL
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
I honestly don’t understand why this is funny.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...-----RIP, MY SON
Has Sano even signed?
My career path, have you seen it?
by say hey nation on Jan 28, 2010 11:17 AM PST up reply actions
I respect Keith law’s opinion more than any other baseball writer, but I think he is massively over-reacting to Bumgarner’s drop in velocity
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jan 28, 2010 11:31 AM PST reply actions
I don’t. His only plus-pitch is his fastball. His secondary pitches are still quite raw. When you drop 4-5 mph off of your fastball (which is your only plus-pitch) I think it’s very concerning. His drop in K’s was pretty scary.
#1 FanShot Champion
Year Level IP K/9 BB/9 FIP 2008 A 141.2 10.42 1.33 1.71 2009 A+ 24.1 8.51 1.48 2.05 2009 AA 107 5.8 2.52 3.56
#1 FanShot Champion
I just think that if you take an 18 year old High School kid and put 283 innings on his arm over 2 years, it’s not surprising or alarming that his velocity might drop (and the corresponding drop in K rates that would bring with it). If the velocity doesn’t come back this year then I will be concerned.
It’s interesting to me how scout types are divided over whether or not to be concerned with the drop in velocity.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jan 28, 2010 12:48 PM PST up reply actions
I doubt you can attribute all, or really even a lot, of the drop in k-rate to the loss in velocity, though. Moving up levels is naturally going to bring it down some on its own, plus moving up levels and not having pitches that actually get strikeouts (off speed pitches) is probably a huge factor in that. The loss of velocity isn’t the only thing working against him.
by Missing Barry on Jan 28, 2010 1:56 PM PST up reply actions
Not, not entirely to the velo but it is concerning. His secondary stuff is also concerning.
#1 FanShot Champion
Awful reply is awful
Forgive me, running low on coffee today. Should have read:
“No, not entirely but the velo loss is concerning.”
I wonder how his changeup is coming along?
#1 FanShot Champion
When drafted, Bumgarner was a control lefty with plus velocity and weak offspeed stuff
At the end of last season, Bumgarner was a control lefty with average velocity and weak offspeed stuff.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Krukow said this is normal
He said that many pitchers go through a dead arm period during their first year or two in the pros and that this is normal for Bumgarner to go through.
Obviously, it’s disconcerting, but given how he was able to effectively pitch in not only the minors but also the majors, at age 20, I agree with those who think that analysts and fans are over-reacting to the loss in velocity, particularly since Bumgarner says that his arm feels fine and that he’s not hurting.
Adoptive parental unit of Ehire Adrianza.
Godfather of Travis Ishikawa.
"Woo hoo!" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
"The objective is that World Series ring" - The Kid
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 28, 2010 5:33 PM PST up reply actions
Just because Krukow says it to comfort the fanbase doesn’t necessarily mean it’s true (though I wouldn’t be surprised at all if it is somewhat common)….
I agree with those who think that analysts and fans are over-reacting to the loss in velocity
Could be, but what about the K%? That’s a pretty legitimate concern right now.
by Missing Barry on Jan 28, 2010 5:56 PM PST up reply actions
yes, I was being sarcastic (although maybe you are too)
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jan 28, 2010 6:42 PM PST up reply actions
SPLITZ!!!
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Whomever Sabean signs this off-season will make a good platoon partner with Ryan Gark-ohh... nevermind...
That reminds me of the freakouts that went on after a certain midseason promotion....
Year Level IP K/9 BB/9 2004 A+ 72.2 11.00 2.1 2004 AA 86.0 7.5 4.2
Not totally analogous, but it’s at least reminiscent.
by Grant Brisbee on Jan 28, 2010 2:35 PM PST up reply actions
That’s Scott Munter, right?
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | New Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
Cain never had his velocity drop, did he? And he also had more than one pitch. Turns out he was fine, but I’m not sure I see much of a similarity between him and Bumgarner outside of stats taking a hit in AA.
#1 FanShot Champion
There were whispers that his velocity was down from 94/95 (touching upper 90s) to 90/91 (touching 93/94), but I can’t find links. As it turns out, either he never did the former, or the latter was entirely true.
by Grant Brisbee on Jan 28, 2010 5:33 PM PST up reply actions
In Cain’s first full season, he averaged 93.4 MPH on his fastball, and was routinely throwing his 4-seamer 94/95 and touching higher than that, so I’m not sure what you’re saying…
by Missing Barry on Jan 28, 2010 5:55 PM PST up reply actions
I was talking about the whispers when he jumped from A to AA. But I’ll admit that I didn’t realize how consistently above-average Cain’s velocity has been since he reached the majors.
by Grant Brisbee on Jan 28, 2010 7:47 PM PST up reply actions
Yeah, I was a little unclear about what you were trying to say…
by Missing Barry on Jan 28, 2010 7:49 PM PST up reply actions
Still a solid K/9. But, to slightly change the topic: nobody seriously considered calling Cain up for opening day 2005, right? And he had a similar year to Bumgarner statistically, probably better, and no velocity drop. Only after another very good year in AAA he was called up, and in his first full year it still took some time before he really became good.
The more I think about it, the crazier having Bumgarner start in the majors seems.
I was promised lasagna.
Yeah, but going into Opening Day ’05, Cain only had 1 full year of pitching pro ball. He was shut down after 14 games in 2003 due to an elbow injury. Games in the minors by year:
Cain
2003 – 14
2004 – 28
2005 – 26
Bumgarner
2008 – 24
2009 – 25
2010 – ???
I try not to break the rules, but merely to test their elasticity.
Only after another very good year in AAA he was called up, and in his first full year it still took some time before he really became good.
It was a good year in AAA by K/9 and FIP standards, but the ERA was PCLed (4.39). The biggest difference is that I’d trust a 20-year-old Bumgarner to throw strikes more than I would a 20-year-old Cain.
by Grant Brisbee on Jan 28, 2010 5:40 PM PST up reply actions
But do you want a 20-year old Bumgarner to throw strikes? Probably not, if the velocity loss sticks,
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
I’d feel better about the velocity loss if I knew that he had a couple other pitches to back up the FB. For me, that’s really the most compelling argument for keeping him on the farm – his secondary stuff ain’t ready for primetime.
On a sidenote, I lol’d going through Ron Shandler’s projections. MadBum is the only pitcher on our staff – starters AND relievers – rated as a control guy. The rest were classified as power pitchers, including Zito.
I try not to break the rules, but merely to test their elasticity.
Hey, where's that poster who complained about the negativity on McCC?
Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard
by SoFa King Mike on Jan 28, 2010 11:58 AM PST reply actions
We were starting to lose him, then we lost him.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Jan 28, 2010 3:20 PM PST up reply actions
Thanks, Millhouse.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Jan 28, 2010 4:28 PM PST up reply actions
The one thing we are rarely negative about are prospects!
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
here’s how our Top 10 from last year performed:
1. Madison Bumgarner, LHP Lost velocity, didn’t improve offspeed stuff, K% plummeted
2. Buster Posey, C Awesome
3. Tim Alderson, RHP
4. Angel Villalona, 1B
5. Conor Gillaspie, 3B Sucked (no power)
6. Henry Sosa, RHP Sucked, got hurt
7. Nick Noonan, 2B Sucked
8. Roger Kieschnick,RF Good! (K%, BB% Red flags, though)
9. Rafael Rodriguez, RF Showed no power, "no power" being an understatement
10. Edwin Quirarte, RHP Didn’t strike anyone out
I can be negative about them, too. :(
by Missing Barry on Jan 28, 2010 9:01 PM PST up reply actions
LOLTINSTAAPP
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Jan 28, 2010 9:34 PM PST up reply actions
I like that at the beginning of TINSTAAPP, it was There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect. Built out of fear from Ainsworth, Williams, Foppert, etc. And now we have Cain, Lincecum, Sanchez, Wilson, Romo, and Bumgarner. Take that, TINSTAAPP.
Maybe if we start using your version, we’ll see a similar change with position prospects within two years or so.
I don't know about that, to the groin.
by howtheyscored on Jan 28, 2010 10:11 PM PST up reply actions
Well, Matzek was projected as having a much higher ceiling than turner and wheeler. But still, above Bumgarner without having thrown a pitch?
Some major differences between KLAW and Mayo’s 50 list: Since the Top 4 or 5 is very similar I’m assuming they’re using similar criteria:
Pedro Alvarez (Mayo, 8; Klaw, 34) – I gotta go with Mayo on this one. Alvarez was considered the top hitter of his draft class. I’d like to hear Klaw’s explanation of why he’s so low (don’t have Insider)
Alcides Escobar (Mayo, 12; Klaw, 54) – This seems to be more of a preference thing
Starlin Castro (Mayo, 22; Klaw, 12) -
Casey Kelly (Klaw, 18; Mayo N/A) – Kelly seems to be hard to peg down since he’s just recently going full-time pitcher
There are some others in the higher numbers, but you’d expect that on any list.
Uribe to Thompson to Clark: Don't tinker ever with chance
reply fail from above
Uribe to Thompson to Clark: Don't tinker ever with chance
Law has never been a fan of Alvarez, so I’m not surprised by that one. He didn’t have him ranked as the top player or hitter in his draft class, so it’s not a recent development.
by Missing Barry on Jan 28, 2010 1:58 PM PST up reply actions
LAW
said that he has alvarez at #35 because of his bat, and gives him no chance to stick at 3rd base. LAW is also in love with castro. i really like klaw’s work usually, but none of the other scout types are so enamoured with castro as he is. as far as escobar goes, i think law is letting his charicter judgement get in the way of a good prospect, although acknowledges escobar is a possible GG winner.
Either something traumatized him in Muhwawkee
or he can’t come to terms with someone besides the Cubs and Cards being competitive. He hates the team, the prospects and the management.
Maybe he got cryptosporidium.
Quick descriptions
1. Klaw doesn’t like Alvarez’s averse platoon split and the likelihood that Alvarez ends up at first
2. Doesn’t like Escobar’s secondary skills
3. Castro has secondary skills and is a good defensive short stop.
4. Klaw’s been working under the assumption that Kelly would eventually be a full-time pitcher and has almost always evaluated him on that. And judging by Kelly’s bat, I would’ve only pegged him as a pitcher too.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Whomever Sabean signs this off-season will make a good platoon partner with Ryan Gark-ohh... nevermind...
I’ve seen Law say before that he has a tendency to downgrade players with position issues (which he thinks Alverez has) more than other scouts would. I also remember him saying that he thinks a lot of people overrate Escobar because of the Brewers unwillingness to include him in the Sabathia trade.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jan 28, 2010 6:25 PM PST up reply actions
plate discipline and power
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Whomever Sabean signs this off-season will make a good platoon partner with Ryan Gark-ohh... nevermind...
If you hadn't seen it, this is K Law's Top 10
San Francisco Giants
1. Buster Posey, C
2. Madison Bumgarner, LHP
3. Zack Wheeler, RHP
4. Thomas (TJ) Neal, OF
5. Roger Kieschnick, RF
6. Tommy Joseph, C
7. Dan Runzler, LHP
8. Ehire Adrianza, SS
9. Rafael Rodriguez, OF
10. Francisco Peguero, OF
FREE BUSTER POSEY
interesting that he lists Tommy Joseph as a catcher
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jan 28, 2010 6:21 PM PST up reply actions
Law also lists Jesus Montero as a catcher (and he has made it very clear that he thinks Montero has no chance of catching in MLB) so I guess he is just going with a guy’s “official” position.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jan 28, 2010 6:39 PM PST up reply actions
TJ Neal?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"Out, out, Fred Lewis!" - JCTillam Gamerspeare
1B of the Future!
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010
That's pretty similar to my list
Just flip Runzler & Rodriguez, and I think I had Crawford over Adrianza
Kevin Frandsen: The best SS on the Giants roster
Hoping for BowkerMania to hit AT&T Park in 2010
over 80 comments and no obligatory “wcw told us so!”
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jan 28, 2010 6:42 PM PST reply actions
Man, I could pull a wcw re: my position on Posey on draft day so many times
Yet unlike wcw, I’m not going to be a dick about it.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Whomever Sabean signs this off-season will make a good platoon partner with Ryan Gark-ohh... nevermind...
/still grumbling that Beau Mills got away
//wait, what?
by Grant Brisbee on Jan 28, 2010 7:40 PM PST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
- Giancarlo Stanton misses cutoff man, and Logan Morrison is thankful he did (Video)
- Snoop Dogg delivers memorable first pitch at U.S. Cellular Field
