The Case of the Broken Second Baseman

Longevity is always a tough issue. Where to draw the line? Wherever it is, it’s going to be arbitrary, you know? I’m not sure I know how to handle it, either.

In 2007:

Warner did not finish in the Top 10 in passing yards.
Warner finished 9th in TD’s.
Warner finished 8th in Y/A.
Warner finished 7th in most INT’s.

In 2008:
Warner finished 2nd in passing yards.
Warner finished 3rd in TD’s.
Warner finished 6th in Most INT’s.
Warner finished 6th in Y/A.

In 2009:
Warner did not finish in the Top 10 in passing yards.
Warner finished tied for 10th in TD’s.
Warner did not finish in the Top 10 in INT’s.
Warner did not finish in the Top 10 in Y/A.

As I’ve acknowledged, I may be underrating his 2008. Overall, I’m not sure what about that performance is so obviously HoF caliber?

Sure, we can watch the games, but for some reason I doubt you’re reviewing film of Warner and other QB’s (or even have that expertise, maybe you do, but most people don’t, and I sure don’t) to really make a good judgment call on his throws, and I doubt you have any way to systematically record your observations to come up with an objective analysis. You can talk about my dislike for Warner all you want, but I at least try to keep my arguments objective and evidence based, whereas yours as based on opinions that are biased to begin with (your eyes judgments, your memories, etc).

In addition to that, you have yet to give any indication of what even makes a HoF’er and why, whereas I’ve stated it’s all about the value they provide the team – which is vague, sure, but the one concept that’s indisputable is production over a longer time period = more value, and I ask a question consistent with that mentality – where has Warner’s production put him compared to other QB’s? That’s why I bring up the rankings – it looks to me like Warner doesn’t compare all that favorably to his peers – sure, he’s good enough, but the HoF is for special players that seperate themselves from merely being a starter. Maybe if you play for long enough as just a starter you end up accumulating more value than others who may or may not have been better than you….but it looks to me like Warner’s PT actually ranks on the very short end up the spectrum, meaning he really has to outplay his peers to provide more value than them. Has he done that?

How many QB’s get into the HoF? For me, it’s the special ones – Manning and Brady, Favre….McNabb looks like he might be on the path depending on how long he plays. A few others have a chance – but again, it depends on how much value they accumulate. What has Warner done to set himself apart from merely being a decent starter?

So regardless of my biases, I think I have a pretty consistent and objective method of evaluating this subject, even if my knowledge on NFL stats is limited and forces me to interpret a lot.

I may claim Warner was surrounded by talent in StL that inflated his numbers, sure – it may be a biased opinion, but I can back it up with objective fact. Torry Holt has had numerous 1000+ yard seasons, Pro Bowls, and a 1700 yard season without Warner. Isaac Bruce had the second most receiving yards in a season EVER, 4 years before Warner shocked the world (bet you didn’t know that one, did you). Faulk was one of the most versatile offensive weapons in football before Warner ever came around, as I previously noted specifically. Orlando Pace is one of the greatest OT’s in the history of the game, and 7 time Pro Bowler for a reason. Yeah, whether you like it or not, whether I’m biased or not, it’s a valid argument. That’s a great offense, Warner or no Warner. My problem is it seems to me Warner’s entire HoF case is resting on 2 great years surrounded by amazing talent. Given his short career, lack of anything to set him apart from his peers besides those two years….I think I’ve made a good case why, if you don’t agree with me, you have to at least take my points seriously. They’re built on objective, fact based points.

One note: I recently looked closer at the numbers and didn’t realize how unimpressive his 2000 was, at least compared to his 99 and 01, but then again, he also posted the highest Y/A in 2000, so maybe it was more a case of his TD’s going to Faulk on the ground or something.

Finally, one last thing I just found – it sure looks to me like Trent Green was the better QB in StL in 2000 – when Warner went down in the middle of the season that year, Green came in, started 5 games (played 8 total) and put up 16 TD’s to 5 INT’s, 9.0 Y/A. Warner had 21 TD’s to 18 INT’s on the season that year (11 games, 11 starts), though he had a better 9.9 Y/A. I don’t know that it proves Warner was replaceable, but it sure looks to me like it at least gives some credibility to that notion.