Just How Valuable was Mike Matheny in 2005?

Pretty damn good.

5 months ago Anticon23 13 comments 0 recs |

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He saved countless runs.

by non sequitur on Sep 4, 2009 2:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I’ll always remember Watheny.

"Trust me: If I’m feeling lousy at the plate like that, I’m not just going to walk up there with bases loaded and get a hit because I’m some great clutch hitter." - Mr. F!
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by Natto on Sep 4, 2009 3:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

He saved ~~countless~~ 19.4 runs.

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by leftymalo on Sep 4, 2009 3:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I lost count at, like, 15.

Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.

by howtheyscored on Sep 4, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t have that many fingers!

by Natto on Sep 4, 2009 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ten runs saved via “range”? For a catcher? Really?

by Evan on Sep 4, 2009 5:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Let's see

Generally, turning a hit into an out saves .8 runs. But catchers are different, since the vast majority of the balls they handle are in foul ground – so catching them isn’t turning a hit into an out, it’s turning a strike into an out, which is much less valuable. Also, the balls that are fair are all in the infield, so they almost never result in extra bases, which again makes the out less valuable. So catcher outs are worth, what – 0.4 runs? That means you’d need to make 25 plays that an average catcher wouldn’t make in order to be 10 runs above average. If a bad catcher is a -7, then the difference between Matheny and a below average catcher is 43 outs, or a play every three game. That sound ludicrous.

Digging deeper: thanks to the wonder that is BBR, we see that Matheny had 784 putouts in 2005. 732 were on strikeouts, and are therefore irrelevant. 14 on throws to the plate, and are also irrelevant. That leaves us with 38 putouts. He also had 77 assists. 30 on caught stealing, and therefore irrelevant, which leaves him with 47 assist.

That’s 85 outs total. According to this stat, 43 of them – 51%(!) – wouldn’t have been made by a poor defensive catcher. Considering that the vast majority of these plays are routine pop ups and sacrifice bunts, that’s just, well, ludicrous.

The writer borrowed the range numbers from PMR, but he doesn’t actually explain how they work. I’m not sure that he knows.

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by Cookyman on Sep 4, 2009 8:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Heh.

Logially, the range between good and bad catchers has to be narrower than at other positions. Generally when a fielder at any other position makes a misplay, an out turns into a hit. That’s huge. But when a catcher makes a misplay — a passed ball or a dropped foul pop, anyway — an out turns into merely an extra base, or another chance for the batter to hit. That doesn’t hurt you as much.

The running game is another matter, of course, as is the inevitably unmeasurable business of working with pitchers.

by Evan on Sep 4, 2009 9:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think the benefits of working with pitchers are unmeasurable.

That we haven’t been able to find any statistical evidence of these benefits doesn’t automatically make them immeasurable. Difficult to find, sure, negligible, perhaps, but not unmeasurable. If the benefits are sufficiently significant, they should show up at some point as players change teams and sample sizes increase.

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by Bhaakon on Sep 4, 2009 10:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not sure if there was something off with the data or not, but Matheny made 52 outs when he was expected to make 38. I was using a run value of 0.75 (which is what Dan Turkenkopf was using), but if you change it to the 0.4 you’ve suggested, it’s about 5.6 runs, which does sound more realistic. It’s complete ignorance on my behalf for not looking in to it by myself, but 0.75 is the general rule of thumb for converting into runs.

by Anticon23 on Sep 4, 2009 11:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Like I said, 0.75 generally makes sense, but catchers are special. Outs on foul balls aren’t worth as much as outs in fair territory, and outs on pop ups aren’t worth as much as outs on line drives, fly balls, and ground balls. BUT, the 0.4 was pretty much pulled from jcb9’s ass. I’m not really sure how to calculate the actual value of an out made by the catcher.

HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?

:-) :-) :-)

by Cookyman on Sep 5, 2009 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs