Bowker Walks To The Bench

by SnowLeopard on Sep 3, 2009 6:05 PM PDT Comment 32 comments

Last week I went to Fenway for the first time, for a cousin's bachelor party. I now see what y'all mean about Sox fans (although the Sox do remain my third favorite team, after the Giants and A's, just cuz I hate the Yankees so much, and don't trust the Rays or Jays to accomplish the job of slaying the beast).

Anyway, driving me to Logan Airport few days later, a cousin-in-law, a big baseball fan who had lived in Walnut Creek for a while, was telling me how much he thinks Sabean is an idiot. I found myself in the strange position of actually defending Sabean - the man has made some good trades over the years, drafts pitchers well, Zito's been pitching better lately, the senior citizen love of 2000-2007 was probably a result of a "win now" mandate from ownership, etc. Then, finally it was my turn to say what I have long hated about Sabean : glove over extra base hitting at the infield corners, won't give rookies a solid couple months or playing time to get settled, and, worst of all : seems to have almost ZERO comprehension of the value of walks for an offense.

Which is a roundabout way of bringing up, I have been amazed for months now that we have Winn, Velez, Torres, Nate, etc. starting at the corners each day, while Bowkermania has been picking grapes in the Valley, or getting better acquainted with the pine benches at The Phone.

I crunched a li'l numbers today, taking the 2009 Major League Equivalents from Baseball Prospectus. Those numbers, of course, take all major and minor leaguers, and do the best to translate them to how a playa would have done in a hypothetically neutral major league park, against major league competition. The 2009 numbers for Giants players (plus Jermaine Dye) are below. Where a dude played on more than one level, I aggregated their performance (and I also included Garko and Sanchez' numbers w Cleveland and Pittsburgh). As may be obvious, the numbers are sorted by position, by descending EQA (that being a BP metric that is supposed to be a single number to measure offensive performance - not sure if it takes into account baserunning).

I know that there are folks here that don't trust MLEs. In fact, I know there are folks here who don't trust BP. And yes I know that these numbers don't take into account defensive value. All that said, I'd say that these numbers simply point to the fact that the Giants currently have approximately two good hitters - Panda and Bowker. They gots MLEs of .311 and .307, respectively, while no other Giant is over .279 (and, again, that number for Bowker includes both his poor performance with the Giants this year, and the AAA-to-MLB translation of his AAA numbers).

John Boy can get on base, and he can slug, and those are the two parts that go into scoring runs. It's crazy he that isn't getting any starts, while we lose games 1-0, 2-0, 2-1. I'd say, again, it points to a lack of valuing walks/OBP/batting patience the part of the GNATSZ BRAZZ (or however you kids write it).

via i117.photobucket.com

P.S. As I write, we seem to be losing 2-1, wasting a great start from Timmy. Haven't been watching the game, but, damn - 0 BB/9 K, 87 pitches / 7 IP for Pedro - looks like we could use at least one more patient hitter in our lineup ...

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Jermaine Dye?

by Lobsterkite on Sep 3, 2009 6:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Well, some folks have been talking the last few days about how we should have gone n gotten him

by SnowLeopard on Sep 3, 2009 6:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

are they the same ones who howl about decaying vets and insist that, come what may, the team needs to “play the kids” and “see what they’ve got”? probably

by campanari on Sep 3, 2009 8:32 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

When there’s plenty of evidence that a given kids “got” more than the decaying vet, then, yeah: HOWL.

by SnowLeopard on Sep 3, 2009 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes the youth movement has been clamoring for Jermaine Dye. Spot on.

Utter frustration and futility.

by Johnny Disaster on Sep 5, 2009 8:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Now, I’m not saying he won’t put up those numbers or close to them, but in 30 ABs, his swing looks the same as last year, when he hit a wall. I’d like for him to prove me wrong, but we have seen numbers like this before. Please let me be wrong and hopefully we have a decent outfielder.

I don’t think it’s just Bowker though. Bochy will use Velez and Winn no matter what, nothing will change. Bowker, Nate and Lewis won’t see any major playing time soon.

Insanity is just a state of mind.

by giants9107 on Sep 3, 2009 6:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

we have seen numbers like this before

I, for one, think that if the BRAZZ had just given Linden a normal starting job in 06, and not yo-yo-ed him around (bench to starting to Frenso to bench, etc), that he would have bloomed.

by SnowLeopard on Sep 3, 2009 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Linden

I wouldn’t guarantee the results necessarily, I but TOTALLY agree that that was what should have been done with Linden. The “lindening” of Nate, and now Bowker, only increases my desire to see Sabean, Bochy, et al gone as soon as possible.

Obi Wan Neukom, you’re our only hope!

Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!

by Lyle on Sep 5, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It’s not the swing, it’s the plate discipline. Bowker started taking pitches, he reworked his approach as a hitter, not necessarily his mechanics. That lead to a dramatic increase in walks, and I am on the BOWKERMANIA bandwagon; the stats support his value.

by quincy0191 on Sep 3, 2009 10:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don’t have a problem with Bowker riding the bench in September — there are plenty of outfielders around. What bothers me is the near-certainty that he’s never going to get a solid shot to start on this team.

by Evan on Sep 3, 2009 6:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I don’t have a problem with Bowker riding the bench in September

Yeah. It might be tough to integrate him into the offense at this late date. On the other hand, those 2-0, 2-1, 1-0 losses are tough to take, as are all those zero walks-on-offence games, ten pitch innings, etc.

by SnowLeopard on Sep 3, 2009 11:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Even without the numbers

Bowker needs to play. Even if he slumps for the first week, he needs his AB’s to get comfy, and then boom. I just don’t know why he sits there and gets stale.

by bradleybear on Sep 3, 2009 6:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I wonder what linden is doing in Japan.

He was hitting nicely in triple A early this season when he had his second chance for a big contract in Japan, this time he took it.

by bradleybear on Sep 3, 2009 6:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Good ol リンデントッド?

Not bad, but not good either – .270 / .338 / .449 – http://bis.npb.or.jp/eng/2009/stats/idb1_e.html

(I’ve heard it said that the Japanese leagues are somewhere between AAA and MLB in difficulty …)

by SnowLeopard on Sep 3, 2009 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Your subject line is misleading

The Giants NEVER take a walk.

If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding.

by SFGuy on Sep 3, 2009 6:54 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

EME would be as productive as Winn!

Bring him up!

I'm as tall as Mel - why can't I hit 500 home runs?

by Ott on Sep 3, 2009 7:24 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

There seems o be a disconnect between Torres's slash-line and EQA.

How can he have the same EQA as Borchard despite superior avg/obp/slg?

VAE PVTO DEVS FIO

by Bhaakon on Sep 3, 2009 8:29 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah. Hmmm. That is odd.

I used their MLE page, which didn’t have PAs (or HPB, SF, SaC numbers), so I approximated PAs by (AB+BB). I then multiplies each rate state (slash-line, EQA) by (AB+BB), and divided by aggregate (AB+BB), to get total agregate rate stats.

Looks like Torres EQA is pulled way down by his 10 PAs at San Jose, which worked out to .100/.100/.200, .000 EQA. You throw that out, and his line is 0.236 / 0.304 / 0.455, 0.269 EQA. And, if you just take his time with the Giants (which was two thirds of his 2009 AB+BB), you get 0.250 / 0.343 / 0.500, 0.287 EQA – voila, our third best hitter …

by SnowLeopard on Sep 3, 2009 11:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bowker got no chance. It’s just ridiculous.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Sep 3, 2009 9:37 PM PDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs

I still have Bowkermania.

Though, I can’t really say ‘he didn’t get a chance’. Though the PA’s were limited, and hopefully he would have adjusted….the alarming thing was that his apparent adjustment in the minors didn’t seem to carry over. Teams went after him exactly like they did last year, once they figured him out. And they got him out, just like before. Nerves can only really account for the first few PA’s, after that, the approach has to look different, at least—with results hopefully to follow, eventually. It wasn’t like he needed to know what to adjust to…he just didn’t. He did look like he was beginning to settle down a bit, and be more patient around when he got sent back down, but ‘look like he was beginning to’ isn’t much to go on.

Prospective parent of new pick, Zack Wheeler. Projectable Righty stolen from the braves. Of course, I stalk my son's myspace: http://www.myspace.com/zackwheelerbaseball

"Obviously I’m not doing things like going toe-to-toe with a ninja. Find me a ninja, for one."--Brian Wilson

by haverecords on Sep 3, 2009 11:10 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

What? Yes it is. That’s exactly what you want to go on, especially when you’re talking about 33 AB. It’s a pitifully small sample size to consider.

by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Sep 3, 2009 11:40 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, if this is some sort of computer model where all you have are pure statistical outcomes.

But it ain’t.

So the mechanics of why matter, and thus a small sample size may have value. To make my point via a reductio: hey! you know that Brian Horwitz guy? We should bring him back! He didn’t get a shot! he only got 42 PA. I know he didn’t do well, but Small sample size!

Now, I know Bowker has far more going with regard to his performance, and his skills—that is why I still have Bowkermania. But he got a shot to show his change was real, and well…he kinda didn’t. I hope it is and such will manifest, but……

Prospective parent of new pick, Zack Wheeler. Projectable Righty stolen from the braves. Of course, I stalk my son's myspace: http://www.myspace.com/zackwheelerbaseball

"Obviously I’m not doing things like going toe-to-toe with a ninja. Find me a ninja, for one."--Brian Wilson

by haverecords on Sep 4, 2009 1:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Just for S&Gs

Here are all those dude’s 2009 MLE ISOBP (i.e. OBP – BA, which is basically walk per PA rate).

I think that a big part of Bowker’s value, with his newfound batting eye/patience, is walks – which, as we all know, have the dual value of getting a man on base (which, I have noticed, is often the first part of scoring a run), and not making an out (also important in “scoring runs”). And I think that that walk-y value (especially compared with Velez and Nate) is unfortunately largely invisible to Sabean and his “braintrust”. I’ve seen no evidence in signings or player development, Bonds notwithstanding, that they value walks.

0.103 John_Bowker
0.088 Fred_Lewis
0.085 Jermaine_Dye
0.080 Jake_Wald
0.074 Ryan_Garko
0.070 Brian_Horwitz
0.066 Ryan_Rohlinger
0.065 Tyler_La_Torre
0.064 Brock_Bond
0.062 Andres_Torres
0.059 Travis_Ishikawa
0.059 Jackson_Williams
0.056 Edgar_Renteria
0.056 Buster_Posey
0.055 Aaron_Rowand
0.053 Clay_Timpner
0.053 Jesus_Guzman
0.052 Stephen_Holm
0.051 Pablo_Sandoval
0.051 Rich_Aurilia
0.050 Randy_Winn
0.050 Emmanuel_Burriss
0.049 Kevin_Frandsen
0.049 Matt_Downs
0.047 Ben_Copeland
0.045 Thomas_Neal
0.042 Darren_Ford
0.042 Eli_Whiteside
0.041 Joe_Borchard
0.041 Eddy_Martinez-Este
0.039 Eugenio_Velez
0.037 Conor_Gillaspie
0.036 Juan_Uribe
0.035 Freddy_Sanchez
0.035 Robert_Felmy
0.034 Brian_Bocock
0.034 Sharlon_Schoop
0.033 Bradley_Boyer
0.031 Nicholas_Noonan
0.029 Brett_Pill
0.029 Nate_Schierholtz
0.027 Brandon_Crawford
0.023 Roger_Kieschnick
0.023 Michael_McBryde
0.019 Bengie_Molina
0.019 Angel_Villalona
0.009 Francisco_Peguero
0.007 Ben_Woodbury

by SnowLeopard on Sep 3, 2009 11:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

/Bochy: GET OFF MY FIELD BOY!

I R 5

by say hey nation on Sep 4, 2009 8:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

I think we all want to see Bowker play next year.

But how do we accomplish it?

We’ll likely only be replacing C, LF and maybe RF and 2b. Assuming Posey and Sanchez are C and 2B. LF likely has to be our leadoff hitter, whether that’s Lewis, Velez or a FA.

That only leaves RF. Should we platoon Nate and Bowker and hope that Nate continues to shine against LHPs?

Or do you have Sanchez, Posey or Rowand lead off in order to allow the Giants to play Bowker in LF?

I want to see Bowker play but I’m just not sure what the best way is to accomplish that.

by Wonderful Terrific Monds on Sep 5, 2009 9:05 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

My biggest worry is that Bowker will end up being the Giants’ version of Nelson Cruz. Player gets the quad-A label due to repeated failures in small sample sizes, then shows improved plate discipline but is never given a chance to fully demonstrate it. Traded/released, comes to the majors with another team, and excels.

Let’s hope the entire leadership of this team is flushed in the offseason and some people brought in who think it might just be a good idea to give Bowker 200 or 300 PAs to show what he’s got.

Thing C

by markdash on Sep 5, 2009 9:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

How would you reshuffle the lineup to get Bowker significant playing time?

by Wonderful Terrific Monds on Sep 5, 2009 9:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

-anyone except Sandoval
+Bowker

Thing C

by markdash on Sep 5, 2009 9:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that Bowker probably has the most upside as a hitter after Posey and Sandoval.

I just worry if we find him time in right or at first, he may have a butcher on our hands. Though in fairness I have no reason to believe that Bowker can’t be at least serviceable in right. If we put him in left, we don’t have a good leadoff option.

by Wonderful Terrific Monds on Sep 5, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Because we can’t play Lewis if Bowker is in left? I generally agree with this sentiment.

If you are referring to Velez, then I hate you.

Thing C

by markdash on Sep 5, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

It could be a Figgins or Carl Crawford (yeah right.) It’s not the specifics, I just don’t think we have too many other places to play our leadoff hitter.

Truthfully, the idea of Posey leading off next year does kind of intrigue me.

by Wonderful Terrific Monds on Sep 5, 2009 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs