Throw Hard or Go Home

Interesting BP article about fastball velocity. It's subscription material, but one of the key takeaways is this:

~90% of MLB RHP throw over 90 MPH on average.

5 months ago marcello 37 comments 0 recs |

Comments

There is also this relevant quote

This suggests that standard-issue right-handers with over-the-top deliveries and three solid offerings have very little chance of making it without plus velocity or some kind of trickery, and this kind of data makes one a little leery of the upside of a prospect like Tim Alderson of Pittsburgh, who has put up impressive numbers in the minors while rarely getting clocked throwing anything outside of the 80s on the gun.

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by marcello on Sep 3, 2009 1:20 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

but doesn’t Alderson have a bit of trickery. I know I have trouble concentrating when I watch him throw.

by Wonderful Terrific Monds on Sep 3, 2009 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think he’s got a weird delivery, and that probably adds a bit of deception, but I don’t think he would qualify for the “trickery” label, whatever that is.

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@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.

by marcello on Sep 3, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Problem with deception, trickery and what not, is it really isn’t measurable or quantifiable. It’s so important yet so…subjective….

by Missing Barry on Sep 3, 2009 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

But it should have an effect on his K’s. Alderson isn’t striking anyone out right now.

HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?

:-) :-) :-)

by Cookyman on Sep 4, 2009 4:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

True…

by Missing Barry on Sep 4, 2009 8:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

The entire thought process on the part of the Giants makes total sense.

“Hey, this kid has great command, great control, and has the body-type that would allow him to potentially develop greater velocity. Let’s use our less important 1st round pick on him”

one year later—-

“Oh. he isn’t gaining velocity. But the numbers are still there. He isn’t likely to succeed in the majors, but perhaps his stellar minor league numbers will make him attractive in a trade.”

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by rotorueter on Sep 3, 2009 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Pretty much.

by Grant on Sep 3, 2009 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Do pitchers ever really gain velocity?

Always seems like:

Reached 93 MPH in college → Constantly around 90 MPH in the minors → Tops out at 89 MPH in the majors.

HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?

:-) :-) :-)

by Cookyman on Sep 3, 2009 3:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I hope I am not addressing your reply too literally, but there might be a difference between college velocity, and velocity from a teenager. Let me know if you find out if there’s been a study on this.

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by rotorueter on Sep 3, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sanchez threw with significantly less velocity in college though he still had great K numbers (I think he was a 88-90 guy). Supposedly the scout who signed him passed on the belief that a mechanical change in his delivery should lead to increased velocity.

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by Roger on Sep 3, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That makes sense. It just seems to me that, generally, the reports about velocity tend to be really exaggerated in the lower levels. With Alderson, the word was the he’s in the low 90’s in college, and that he could add. Last year it was that he tops out at 91, and probably won’t add. Now it’s that he can’t even reach 90.

HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?

:-) :-) :-)

by Cookyman on Sep 3, 2009 4:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Alderson never played college ball, he was drafted out of high school. Your point probably still stands. I remember how Fopper supposedly approach 100mph in the minors, but it never really showed up.

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by xanthan on Sep 3, 2009 7:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I meant high school. Foppert is a good example because some people claim that it was just the injury, but at some point he just came out and said that the reports were exaggerated, and that he doesn’t believe he could ever throw 100 MPH.

HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?

:-) :-) :-)

by Cookyman on Sep 4, 2009 4:55 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here it is

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4176/is_20030516/ai_n14550623/

“It’s kind of a little hard to believe,” Foppert said. “I don’t think I was ever in the upper 90s.”

HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?

:-) :-) :-)

by Cookyman on Sep 4, 2009 5:03 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I remember reading an account of alderson’s first, or one of his first, starts in the system, that claimed he hit high nineties in the game. So yeah, I’m kind of suspicious of low minors velocity claims.

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by raisingcain on Sep 3, 2009 8:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

TRADE VINDICATED!

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by xanthan on Sep 3, 2009 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m pretty sure this is why the Giants traded Alderson. I’m curious as to how they got to this conclusion. Did they use statistics and data or is it just something that they “feel” is the case and went with it. I’m guessing it’s the later.

by AngelWillSaveUs on Sep 3, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Did they use statistics and data

IF THEY DID, THEY SHOULD TRY THAT AT THE MAJOR LEAGUE LEVEL.

HA!

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by WTF on Sep 4, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is why I’ve always been bigger on “stuff” than results for prospects. Kevin Pucetas is a pretty good example of this. Pretty good results in the minors but by most reports his velocity is below average on his fastball. I’m not sure how much of a major league career he’ll have as a starting pitcher.

It’s why guys like Jonathan Sanchez can really frustrate you, but at the same time, take off a pitch really well. My general rule is that I’ll almost always hold out for the guys with better “stuff” and hope they put it together eventually.

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by xanthan on Sep 3, 2009 1:31 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

WHAT?

OWNLY STATZ MATTER

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@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.

by marcello on Sep 3, 2009 1:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I LIKE STATS, TOO!

But for prospects, I like them in conjunction with stuff — or scouting — if you will. Pucetas has plenty of stats (like K/9 that’s directly related to his scouting report) that freak me out, too.

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by xanthan on Sep 3, 2009 1:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs