Throw Hard or Go Home
Interesting BP article about fastball velocity. It's subscription material, but one of the key takeaways is this:
~90% of MLB RHP throw over 90 MPH on average.
over 2 years ago
marcello
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There is also this relevant quote
This suggests that standard-issue right-handers with over-the-top deliveries and three solid offerings have very little chance of making it without plus velocity or some kind of trickery, and this kind of data makes one a little leery of the upside of a prospect like Tim Alderson of Pittsburgh, who has put up impressive numbers in the minors while rarely getting clocked throwing anything outside of the 80s on the gun.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
but doesn’t Alderson have a bit of trickery. I know I have trouble concentrating when I watch him throw.
by Wonderful Terrific Monds on Sep 3, 2009 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions
I think he’s got a weird delivery, and that probably adds a bit of deception, but I don’t think he would qualify for the “trickery” label, whatever that is.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
Problem with deception, trickery and what not, is it really isn’t measurable or quantifiable. It’s so important yet so…subjective….
by Missing Barry on Sep 3, 2009 9:50 PM PDT up reply actions
The entire thought process on the part of the Giants makes total sense.
“Hey, this kid has great command, great control, and has the body-type that would allow him to potentially develop greater velocity. Let’s use our less important 1st round pick on him”
one year later—-
“Oh. he isn’t gaining velocity. But the numbers are still there. He isn’t likely to succeed in the majors, but perhaps his stellar minor league numbers will make him attractive in a trade.”
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
Do pitchers ever really gain velocity?
Always seems like:
Reached 93 MPH in college → Constantly around 90 MPH in the minors → Tops out at 89 MPH in the majors.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
I hope I am not addressing your reply too literally, but there might be a difference between college velocity, and velocity from a teenager. Let me know if you find out if there’s been a study on this.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
Sanchez threw with significantly less velocity in college though he still had great K numbers (I think he was a 88-90 guy). Supposedly the scout who signed him passed on the belief that a mechanical change in his delivery should lead to increased velocity.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
That makes sense. It just seems to me that, generally, the reports about velocity tend to be really exaggerated in the lower levels. With Alderson, the word was the he’s in the low 90’s in college, and that he could add. Last year it was that he tops out at 91, and probably won’t add. Now it’s that he can’t even reach 90.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
Alderson never played college ball, he was drafted out of high school. Your point probably still stands. I remember how Fopper supposedly approach 100mph in the minors, but it never really showed up.
Yeah I meant high school. Foppert is a good example because some people claim that it was just the injury, but at some point he just came out and said that the reports were exaggerated, and that he doesn’t believe he could ever throw 100 MPH.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
Here it is
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4176/is_20030516/ai_n14550623/
“It’s kind of a little hard to believe,” Foppert said. “I don’t think I was ever in the upper 90s.”
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
I remember reading an account of alderson’s first, or one of his first, starts in the system, that claimed he hit high nineties in the game. So yeah, I’m kind of suspicious of low minors velocity claims.
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
And celebrating the achievements of others' adoptees, Joey Martinez and Nate Schierholtz
I’m pretty sure this is why the Giants traded Alderson. I’m curious as to how they got to this conclusion. Did they use statistics and data or is it just something that they “feel” is the case and went with it. I’m guessing it’s the later.
by AngelWillSaveUs on Sep 3, 2009 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions
This is why I’ve always been bigger on “stuff” than results for prospects. Kevin Pucetas is a pretty good example of this. Pretty good results in the minors but by most reports his velocity is below average on his fastball. I’m not sure how much of a major league career he’ll have as a starting pitcher.
It’s why guys like Jonathan Sanchez can really frustrate you, but at the same time, take off a pitch really well. My general rule is that I’ll almost always hold out for the guys with better “stuff” and hope they put it together eventually.
WHAT?
OWNLY STATZ MATTER
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
I LIKE STATS, TOO!
But for prospects, I like them in conjunction with stuff — or scouting — if you will. Pucetas has plenty of stats (like K/9 that’s directly related to his scouting report) that freak me out, too.
I’m hoping the Giants are patient with Edwin Concepcion. He definitely fits the great stuff not so great results, aside from his K rate.
by AngelWillSaveUs on Sep 3, 2009 1:52 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m not sure about all the Concepcion love. He was actually fairly old for his level this year.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
..with a stopwatch string hanging out of back pocket
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Jeremy Affeldt induces DP's
by Giant among Angels on Sep 3, 2009 10:39 PM PDT up reply actions
Now that we have stats for stuff, I like stuff too!
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
exactly why I didn't want to trade Sanchez when everybody was down on him
Lefties that can throw 92-95 are VERY RARE; there are only handful of them starting in the majors.
I hate when people say things like this. Everybody on this board does not have the same opinion.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
I shouldn't have said everybody
but it was easily the majority opinion to trade Sanchez
There are three opinions on this board
Groupthink
Grougthink
Groudthink
Pick a line.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
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