Cool stats article: debunking "myth" that Wins are completely useless in evaluating starting pitching.
Not long; worth reading; good points that are probably valuable for the mid-level stats users here and elementary for the high-level stats users here.
WARNING: On the sidebar at the time I read this, there was an ad for a Tampa Bay Rays t-shirt that says "Zorilla." I hope that for you it is a retrospective of Anne Hathaway (or, if you prefer, Hugh Jackman), but if not, you've been warned.
4 months ago
Mayor of 311
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i could have told you there was correlation between skill and wins just using common sense, doesn’t mean it’s a good talent evaluator. wins is a useless stat because of the fact that there are much better stats out there to tell us how good a pitcher actually is. also, the whole small sample size issue doesn’t help much either as most people are completely ignorant of variance.
FREE BUSTER
by TimLincecumIsGod on Sep 29, 2009 12:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’ll bet talent correlates to more quality starts too.
That doesn’t make an arbitrary statistic mean anything.
Nobody likes money
by fwoty oz on Sep 29, 2009 1:10 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
After reading the comments...
I think all he’s trying to say is Wins are a decent indicator of talent given a large enough sample size. My problem is a large enough sample size is much larger than 1 season.
Nobody likes money
by fwoty oz on Sep 29, 2009 1:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly.
Nothing is more useless to evaluate a player than a stat that takes several years to build up a viable sample. By the time a player has registered enough decisions for W’s to become a worthwhile measure, most of the information is too stale to be of practical use.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
by Bhaakon on Sep 29, 2009 2:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
COUGH UZR COUGH
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by Viliphied on Sep 29, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve always thought that career # of wins are useful in a certain sense, but they rarely tell you anything you don’t probably already know.
You have to be an excellent, very good pitcher to accumulate 300 wins over your career. So yeah, Steve Carleton was pretty good. But when people tell me that this guy had 300, therefore he’s better than some guy with 290 over the course of his career, that’s when I make a weird face and move on.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
by oldjacket on Sep 29, 2009 8:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh, I thought that was just your normal face.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
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by groug on Sep 29, 2009 11:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think the problem is that wins are perceived as “useless”, but rather that wins are given way too much merit by the people who hand out awards.
by deuce deuce on Sep 29, 2009 10:18 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
amen to that.
Forsan et haec olim meminisse iuvabit... Maybe.
by Mayor of 311 on Sep 29, 2009 3:12 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In fact, in the absence of other stats, Wins is a very good, if not great, indicator of a pitcher’s value.
but when are we ever going to be in the absence of other stats?
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by jponry on Sep 29, 2009 10:19 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Exactly. Wins were good in 1960 maybe. It’s 2009 people.
by xanthan on Sep 29, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, as long as we're going to project the term "useless" out there
This line of thinking seems pretty useless. “In the absence of any other food existing on the planet, I might as well eat chalk- a very good, if not great, food in such a situation.”
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Sep 29, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, this is pretty silly. I think it’s obvious to most that there is some correlation between wins and ERA, which 0.54 would indicate. I mean, the fewer runs you give up, the better your chance to win.
The problem a lot of people have with wins are they factor to much into valuation (Cy Youngs & HOF especially) of pitchers. There are better ways to measure the value of the pitcher rather than 20 or 300 wins.
by AngelWillSaveUs on Sep 29, 2009 10:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
/slow wanking motion while making eye contact
by AngelWillSaveUs on Sep 29, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Graphs Interweb board discussing the relevance of wins as a statistic = Nerds
Adopted brother of Jason Jarvis.
by j14 on Sep 29, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nerds = Hot.
But you knew that already.
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by leftymalo on Sep 30, 2009 12:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
wins
It’s long been an institution now, but why was the pitching wins stat conceived in the first place? If it didn’t exist and someone proposed it, I would think that someone was evil. It creates a somewhat artificial tension between pitchers and hitters that either sets good pitchers against their teammates on a poor-hitting team (e.g., the post-Bonds Giants) and/or forces them to develop tremendous self-discipline and seek alternative means of professional gratification (i.e., I just went out and did my job and gave my team a chance to win).
This does go both ways — the desire to “get a pitcher a win” by hitters can help a team bond. But these social dynamics would only have come after the fact. How did it ever get started?
by non sequitur on Sep 29, 2009 1:19 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Good point
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Sep 29, 2009 1:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And the artificial tension was introduced AGAIN when the "Save" came into existence as a defined stat.
That introduced all kinds of noise into the machine of deciding who should pitch right now in this late inning situation to improve the team’s chances of winning this game. Grr. It really got kicked into the stratosphere when agents began featuring that stat in negotiations/arbitrations, thus earning more money for their clients, thus making the GMs see them as “Save” pitchers, thus pressuring managers to use them only in “Save” situations. Feh.
Forsan et haec olim meminisse iuvabit... Maybe.
by Mayor of 311 on Sep 29, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
and then there are "holds"
So, the starters have their stat (wins), closers have their stat (saves — although maybe saves created the closer role rather than vice-versa), so then middle relievers felt they had to have their special thing, too. I can’t think of a stat that has a more openly socio-political meaning beyond the mechanics of the game than the “hold”.
by non sequitur on Sep 29, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes. It seems each iteration is less founded in what matters to the game.
Though I would say the effect of the “Save” stat is more perverse and pernicious than the “Hold.” But yes, you’re absolutely right about the silliness of the “Hold.” Feh.
Forsan et haec olim meminisse iuvabit... Maybe.
by Mayor of 311 on Sep 29, 2009 9:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand the argument, but since it assumes ERA+ is a very good way to evaluate starting pitcher, why would you ever use wins instead of ERA+?
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
by groug on Sep 29, 2009 4:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Wins as a measure of a pitchers ability is stupid. There are better stats. Wins are more dependent on how your offense does than how you pitch – there are two factors in wins, runs scored (offense) and runs allowed (pitching + defense)….so yeah offense > defense in wins. We have other measures like ERA, ERA+, FIP, tRA, there’s just no reason to ever use wins to evaluate a pitchers ability or performance. That said, wins as a pitcher stat do have a use. They give us context. They describe what the end result was when that pitcher took the mound – it may not give us good information on how that pitcher performed, but it does give us good information on how the team performed, and that can be interesting information, so I don’t see a need to dismiss wins entirely.
For example, I can see Zito was a decent pitcher this season by his stats. I can then look at Zito’s W-L to get a feel for how the Giants as a team performed when he was on the mound. They did poorly, and it was probably a run support issue (which I can figure out with a quick glance). I think that’s worthwhile knowledge.
by Missing Barry on Sep 29, 2009 6:11 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
But it’s not a myth…This article isn’t even worth me reading it.
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by boonitez on Sep 29, 2009 6:23 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs





















