How Much For That Pitcher In The Window?
by xanthan on Sep 25, 2009 8:26 AM PDT
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PrintFrom SFGate this morning:
Tim Lincecum answered the question exactly how Giants fans wanted him to. For the first time, the ace will be eligible for arbitration, meaning his salary will skyrocket, and he was asked if he'd be open to a long-term deal.
...
Lincecum, who'll make his penultimate start of 2009 tonight, said, "I definitely like San Francisco. I've seen nothing but positive things as far as my personal experiences. It's where I see myself being for awhile."
I'm not especially good at contract type stuff, but the Giants will control Lincecum until after the 2012 season. How long would you lock him up for? How much money should the Giants pay? Should they try to extend his contract beyond the team's control of 2012? Considering he'll be arb eligible from this offseason to the end of 2012, it would seem like a good idea to try and buy out some of his years and extend him.
Lincecum has easily been the most important Giant over the past three seasons in terms of value. From 2007-09 he's added 18.5 wins to the Giants. How much should Tim get? Discuss!
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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I'd throw out something like this
Years: infinity +1
Salary: eleventy zillion
And any loose change you may have.
On 5/7, the best part of waking is up LOLDGERS in my cup.
Hometown discount?
www.leaguelineup.com/lbucks24
by NuschlerFace on Sep 25, 2009 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions
We should trade him for a fat first baseman.
Seriously though, I have no idea. Expensively locking up any pitcher long-term is a frightening thought to me, even with our beloved Tim.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
Expensively locking up any pitcher long-term is a frightening thought to me, even with our beloved Tim.
Yeah, I have no idea how long I’d want to go with Tim.
Psh
xanthan could never pick up Tim
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Pay that man. He gives us hope.
As an aside, the winnter of today’s “strangely timed news announcement” category is…the Giants! Giants postseason tickets on sale today at 10 am. Woohoo, we’re in this thing!
Noonan. Nooooonan!
by Giant Fan in Singapore on Sep 25, 2009 8:48 AM PDT reply actions
I saw a broadcast a few days ago stating that if you deposited $750 for season tickets for the ’10 season you would get first rights to ’09 playoff tickets or something.
I lol’d.
Be sure to buy one as long as possible....
you know, like the ones on your mimeograph and thermal fax machine…
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
Nobody puts Bengie in a corner!
by natteringnabob on Sep 25, 2009 4:55 PM PDT up reply actions
Put it this way. If you did this and you bought the playoff tickets, you have paid off your 2010 season tickets already.
If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding.
Yeah, if you want the G’s to hold onto your money for the next 4 months.
"The dreams ain't broken down here now, they're walking with a limp" --TW
If only he would resign.
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Sep 25, 2009 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions
He needs to be involved in a Bothan sex scandal first
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
Adopted Father: Tyler Graham
Official McPokeMaster
Registered Velezbian and supporter of Fredemption
by GrahamCrakalaka on Sep 26, 2009 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions
First of all, Lincecum is under team control until 2013, not 2012. I’m disappointed in John Shea.
Lincecum’s baseline should be Zach Greinke and, 4 years 38 Million dollars. Cy Young doesn’t hurt, of course.
I’m guessing 3 years, 35M with 2 team options at 16M each or buyout for 1.5M
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
I'd like to steal a page from the NFL....
…and franchise tag him. Lifetime contract paid at the average of the top 3 pitchers in the league.
Not that its possible or rational.
Plotting the ultimate demise of Gore51 (never met him, I dunno he could be swell) so as to adopt Kyle Nicholson.
"I don’t know much about sabre-stats but there’s nothing better than white tea and poptarts first thing in the morning" - tk
by Whiteteaandpoptarts on Sep 25, 2009 8:54 AM PDT reply actions
Deal!
Plotting the ultimate demise of Gore51 (never met him, I dunno he could be swell) so as to adopt Kyle Nicholson.
"I don’t know much about sabre-stats but there’s nothing better than white tea and poptarts first thing in the morning" - tk
by Whiteteaandpoptarts on Sep 25, 2009 9:04 AM PDT reply actions
frack - reply fail
i wish i could click and drag location
Plotting the ultimate demise of Gore51 (never met him, I dunno he could be swell) so as to adopt Kyle Nicholson.
"I don’t know much about sabre-stats but there’s nothing better than white tea and poptarts first thing in the morning" - tk
by Whiteteaandpoptarts on Sep 25, 2009 9:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Make it a delivered box a week, and you have yourself a deal.
Heh. Scott Boras has nothing on me.
Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard
by SoFa King Mike on Sep 25, 2009 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions
What’s Tim going to do with 11 million Euros?
"If you want to walk, watch a mailman."--Shawon Dunston
"If you want to bunt, bake a cake."--Bruce Bochy
Hookers and blow in Amsterdam
Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard
by SoFa King Mike on Sep 25, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Twice as much as he can do with dollars!
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
He should probably get like 25 million a year. Obviously, he won’t get that much – maybe something like what jct said.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
6 years, 80 million w/ 20 M club option & 5M buyout
85 million guaranteed is hard to pass up I think. This is similar to the type of deal Pujols got
I like this one, although the contract length is mucho
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.
GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
I’m gonna wait for Grant’s six-part series on this subject in November.
by Evan on Sep 25, 2009 9:11 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
I’d never give a contract longer than 5 years to a pitcher. Lincecum is the greatest pitcher ever, so 5 years it is. I think he’ll get around ~$8M or so in arbitration, pitchers are on such a low standard and no super two pitcher has ever gotten more than $4.35M his first year (Cole Hamels, which was part of a contract he signed with the Phillies, not a victory in arbitration).
So 5 years brings you through 2014.
2010 – $8M
2011 – $12M
2012 – $16M
2013 – $16M
2014 – $16M
5 years, $68M
I was originally going to go with an extra $6M or so on top of that, but realized we should be getting a premium for guaranteeing his salary this early.
Looking at NeifiChicken’s post, there could probably be another year or two of options worked in there somehow, though I don’t feel like thining that much about it at the moment…
by Missing Barry on Sep 25, 2009 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Are those amounts what you think he should/would get paid each year of arb? Because guaranting the money now means the Giants should get a discount, so I’d see 5 yrs/$60 million.
by AngelWillSaveUs on Sep 25, 2009 9:27 AM PDT up reply actions
2010-2012 were basically my arbitration estimates. I applied the discount to 2013 (which I would have put at $18) and 2014 (which would have been $20).
by Missing Barry on Sep 25, 2009 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
I also did factor a discount in already, keep in mind this buys out a year of his free agency so that’s some leverage working in Timmy’s favor.
by Missing Barry on Sep 25, 2009 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions
These seem like very reasonable numbers, and Timmy deserves it, but it’s worth noting that if the Giants sign him to such a contract, in 2012 and 2013 they’ll have around $36 million tied up in two pitchers. Unless they find someone to take Zito. Even if their annual budget for players is around $110 million by then, that’s 1/3 of the budget for 1/12 of your roster.
"If you want to walk, watch a mailman."--Shawon Dunston
"If you want to bunt, bake a cake."--Bruce Bochy
Eh, that’s just how the economics of baseball work. That’s why cheap home grown players are so important to a teams success (and why we’ve underachieved under Sabean, because he doesn’t understand that concept). Zito comes off the books after 2013 though so I think we can handle it for a couple years. We’ll have to pay Timmy those years anyways, it’s not like we can get out of it.
by Missing Barry on Sep 25, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions
If you want to keep Lincecum, you’re going to have to pay him. Zito’s contract doesn’t really change that.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.
But it does make it more desirable to rid ourselves of Zito’s contract before then. Somehow.
"The part of the roster where most of the money is spent, though, is on free agents and guys acquired through trade — guys Sabean did play a big role in acquiring. And they are not good. When you get 2/5 of a pitching rotation for free, you would think you could do better with $76 million than to field the league’s worst offense."
-Taliesin September, 2009
I would rework it to look like this
2010 – $7.5M
2011 – $7.5M
2012 – $14M
2013 – $19M (Rowand is off the books)
2014 – $20M (Zito is off the books)
5 years, $68M
I R 5
by say hey nation on Sep 25, 2009 1:26 PM PDT up reply actions
But then $68M != $68M. It makes some sense timing wise for the Giants, but my model was based on my arbitration expectations for him, and if you’re rearranging it like that (which makes it worth less in present value terms) you’re going to have to pay a higher total.
by Missing Barry on Sep 25, 2009 1:38 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes, but you are also giving him 68 m after only two years in the majors so he might jump all over that.
I R 5
by say hey nation on Sep 25, 2009 1:43 PM PDT up reply actions
I also might consider making the 1st 3 years the same price, or making the year Matt Cain is a FA cheaper and bumping som money to other years to free up some cash to resign him
I R 5
by say hey nation on Sep 25, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I am not so sure you are going to have pay him more. I mean baseball contracts are not realy viodable. He would still have $60 MM by age 31 and there is the very real chance he get Noah Lowryed. In that case he is still getting paid.
That’s it! Katie bar the door for this 79 win team is star crossed! And I am loving it.
If I was at a bargaining table with Timmy. I’d pretty much give him anything he wanted so it’s a good thing it won’t be me.
Jesse Foppert: I Still Believe. Maybe a little less now.
"I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen." ~Bob Lemon,
by AndYourBirdCanSing on Sep 25, 2009 9:30 AM PDT reply actions
We control Timmy for 4 years
Unless there’s a significant discount, (Ie, a 5 year, $65M deal), it seems hard for me to justify taking the risk. Timmy may reasonably want to take it year to year, knowing that a $10M award next year (2 time Cy Young Winner if the voters are smart) guaratees him essentially $50M over 4 (arb raises, even if he’s mediocre) or otherwise FA. Last year was the time, but c’est la vie.
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
Ya know...ignorance really IS bliss.
Well - I do , anyway.
by victor frankenstein on Sep 25, 2009 10:56 AM PDT reply actions
Ha, awesome. I think that is the most outward emotion I’ve seen Tim direct at anyone but himself. Fucker deserved a lot worse.
by AngelWillSaveUs on Sep 25, 2009 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Anyone know who/why he’s barking here? (great photo/screen cap whoever did it)
"The dreams ain't broken down here now, they're walking with a limp" --TW
I think this was at Gary Darling specifically but the whole crew deserved it that series.
by AngelWillSaveUs on Sep 25, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
Who did it? Why , the wizards at FrankenStudios , of course!
We use the latest in image capturing technology to bring you scenes that awe and delight!
Here , Flew is caught dabbing away a tear through the innovative combo of a cheesy digital camera and binoculars!
Here , Pablo Sandoval throws up in disgust!
We at Frankenstudios also pioneered the combination of a cheesy digital camera and the MLB – TV DVR. Through this marvelous innovation it is revealed just how fat the pitch Aaron Rowand chose not to swing at was…
…and by how much he missed the one he did swing at…
…and the distance off the plate the pitch turned out to be.
Ya know...ignorance really IS bliss.
Well - I do , anyway.
by victor frankenstein on Sep 25, 2009 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh. Man. I knew it was bad, but to have it illustrated like that… I’m going to be sick.
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Sep 25, 2009 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Frankenstudios FTW!
Excellent job, Vic. The Rowand shots were depressing.
"The part of the roster where most of the money is spent, though, is on free agents and guys acquired through trade — guys Sabean did play a big role in acquiring. And they are not good. When you get 2/5 of a pitching rotation for free, you would think you could do better with $76 million than to field the league’s worst offense."
-Taliesin September, 2009
One way the Giants can keep Timmy’s hard salary figure lower per season is by giving him performance bonuses. They could give him like 3 extra mill a year if he say wins the Cy Young or MVP.
I think they should extend him for 5 years.
So buy out 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and then add on another year for 2014. 5 years 75 mill.
2010: 6 mill
2011: 9 mill
2012: 15 mill
2013: 22.5 mill
2014: 22.5 mill
This seems fair. The last season of Zito and Rowand is 2012, hopefully one or both is gone by then, but Lincecum would be making less than Zito and more than Rowand. Then in 2013 he’d be the highest paid player at 22.5.
$75M seems a bit on the over side to me personally. I think the numbers for your first 4 years would be pretty accurate to what he’d get in arbitration going year to year (a little below in the first 2 or 3 years but enough above in year 4 to make up for that), and the 5th year is probably pretty much what he’ll command in free agency, so essentially we’re guaranteeing him what he’d make anyways. From that standpoint, the Giants shouldn’t extend him. There has to be a discount in there somewhere to make it worthwhile for the Giants to extend him.
Do you guys really think it makes a difference to baseball players how much they’re paid relative to their teammates/peers? I’ve heard of maybe Arod wanting to be the highest paid player in baseball, and guys like CC will obviously use Johan’s contract as a benchmark for his own, but unlike the NFL I never hear guys talking about being the highest paid on the team or at their position or anything. My impression is as long as they think they’re paid fairly, that salary competition doesn’t really exist in baseball (and to a degree that makes sense since baseball players make more money than football players)….
by Missing Barry on Sep 25, 2009 12:16 PM PDT up reply actions
I brought up the Zito and Rowand contracts purely for those worried about the team budget. It had nothing to do with making Timmy feel like he was the highest paid player.
And I don’t necessarily see how 5 years for 75 mill isn’t a discount when you’re talking about the best pitcher in baseball.
Oh I guess I read someone earlier talking about him wanting to be the highest paid player, so I guess that’s what I was really addressing.
And I don’t necessarily see how 5 years for 75 mill isn’t a discount when you’re talking about the best pitcher in baseball.
It isn’t a discount if that’s what he’d get going year to year. If he hit free agency right now, obviously that’d be the greatest contract ever handed out just based on the process, even if it didn’t pan out. He isn’t hitting free agency though, the 6 years of team control/arbitration process dramatically suppresses players pay, and that’s what our benchmark is for this particular contract at this time. So….do you think he would make substantially more than that in arbitration? The most a Super Two pitcher has ever gotten is buying out years 3, 4 and 5 for a total of $20.5M (Cole Hamels), even if you doubled his salary for year 6 (from year 5), you’re still looking at 4 years $39.5M…
(Note: Hamels is one class year ahead of Lincecum. The arbitration panel is allowed to look at comparable players in Lincecum’s class and the class one year ahead of him, so that includes Hamels)
by Missing Barry on Sep 25, 2009 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions
That’s my answer.
My adopted son Matt Downs . Ranked as the 24th best prospect in the Giants farm system by Baseball America !!
I was going to make a “pillar of salt” joke, but Lot wasn’t the one who turned into one.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
You could try something like ‘How about a Lot and a pillar of salt’?
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Sep 25, 2009 1:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Take My Wife Please !! ….Crickets….Henny Youngman
My adopted son Matt Downs . Ranked as the 24th best prospect in the Giants farm system by Baseball America !!
He should get a better contract than Zito
Since, ya know, he’s better than Zito.
These are my principles. If you don't like them, I have others. -Groucho Marx
I'm just glad
to hear him say something positive about SF and a desire to stay. It’s pretty much been no comment or his dad talking about one year at a time deals.
I wonder if the tune changed in part after the back tweak? Sitting out a few days with pain might just have made him realize how nice it is to be Barry Zito. At least, on the first and fifteenth of every month for the next [eleventy billion] years…
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
Nobody puts Bengie in a corner!
yeah
i was worried that he would want to leave after 2012, or wasn’t even considering SF by then and wanted to sell his soul to the yankees
Just imagine those numbers though.
Like 35 wins 300 strikeouts easy candidate for cy young and yeah.
Give him 50 bajillion dollars, a rocketship, a pony, 72 virgins, and all the tea in China. And throw in a cookie.
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006. Bringing you all your California League and New York-Penn League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 26, 2009 9:58 AM PDT reply actions
i thought the virgins are only promised in afterlife?
Obviously any links in the above post are probably NSFW
Make it happen anyway!
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006. Bringing you all your California League and New York-Penn League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Sep 26, 2009 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions
GIANTS BRAZZ!
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Sep 26, 2009 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions
Buyer Beware
Believe it was last season when Astros pitcher Roy Oswalt made a comment that as the years went by the heavy workload will take a toll on a pitcher. And now we read Lincecum commenting about feel a little tired just because it’s a lot of work .
Go to arbitration this winter and then NEXT winter see where the kid is physically before committing big monies.
Oswalt … if the Astros had signed Oswalt to a generous six-year deal when he was a super-2, they wouldn’t have regretted it one bit.
LETS SEE
2010 7.5 mil
2011 11 mil
2012 13 mil
2013 15 mil
2014 17 mil
2015 option year.
63.5 mil He is making bigger than usual bucks during his arb years, for slightly less in his true free agent years. If he is still good after 2015 at age 31 he will be in 20 millions.
by bradleybear on Sep 26, 2009 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions
It's got to be a strain...
…being the person everyone even remotely connected to the organization counts on to win a game/pick up the atmosphere/save the organization’s appeal every five days…
Ya know...ignorance really IS bliss.
Well - I do , anyway.
by victor frankenstein on Sep 26, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions
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