What does it take to be a playoff team?
by coicoy on Sep 20, 2009 8:36 PM PDT
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PrintIf you look at the teams who are entering the playoffs, one thing is pretty consistent with all of them: you envy their starting lineup. Cardinals, Phillies, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. Each of these teams also has a decent starting staff, either one or two aces, or three decent top pitchers.
We've known this for a while, but the Giants lineup compared to those teams is just silly. Pablo, Bengie, and Sanchez would likely start on some of those teams, but pretty much every other guy wouldn't cut it as a starter. They'd be good solid backup players off the bench, starting every third or fourth fame, but not frontline starters.
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awesome
#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum
Adopted Father: Tyler Graham
Official McPokeMaster
Registered Velezbian and supporter of Fredemption
by GrahamCrakalaka on Sep 20, 2009 8:38 PM PDT reply actions
Summing up, then: consistently good offense and an ace or 3 good pitchers will enhance chances for successful season.
As your friend and legal advisor, I would counsel you not to just give this kind of insight away. Someone will always pay money for information that provides them advantage.
Forsan et haec olim meminisse iuvabit... Maybe.
by Mayor of 311 on Sep 20, 2009 9:22 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
The check is in the mail!
I’ll take two pounds.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
Nobody puts Bengie in a corner!
by natteringnabob on Sep 20, 2009 9:30 PM PDT up reply actions
As your attorney, I advise you to take a hit out of the little brown bottle in my shaving kit. You won’t need much, just a tiny taste.
"Snow woulda had it!!!"
Would really appreciate someone informing him whether or not we're in this. The media says we are. The sensibilities say otherwise.
RIP HST
I would have loved to hear the Doctor’s take on the 2008 Presidential contest— well, that is, I would love to have heard the Hunter Thompson of the early 70’s, not the incoherent shell he became by the 90s.
Forsan et haec olim meminisse iuvabit... Maybe.
by Mayor of 311 on Sep 20, 2009 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions
I have money and I’m looking to give it away for information that provides me an advantage in baseball. Do you know anybody who might be willing to barter?
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Sep 21, 2009 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions
Now you're just being coi. coy.
Forsan et haec olim meminisse iuvabit... Maybe.
by Mayor of 311 on Sep 21, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions
Usually about 100 wins.
Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti. "I treat Timmy differently from most pitchers: I leave him alone."
Nobody puts Bengie in a corner!
you have to win more games than the other teams in your division, or else win more games than all of the other non division winners in the league
by FluLikeSymptoms on Sep 20, 2009 9:35 PM PDT reply actions
pretty much every other guy wouldn’t cut it as a starter.
Yet somehow it’s OK here.
I just woke from a 3 hr nap and I’m a little fuzzy normally anyway and I understand that there isn’t always a lot of sparkle available from either the FA market or the FArm , and also that there is some parity amongst those teams NOT overwhelmingly gifted…well , shit , at least we outdid the Blanks.
Ya know...ignorance really IS bliss.
Well - I do , anyway.
by victor frankenstein on Sep 20, 2009 9:43 PM PDT reply actions
the Pirates and the Marlins and the Royals
and other such teams might be able to trade their up-and-comers again, as they’ve been known to do.
I think Velez and Schierholtz have a shot at being solid producers, and I wouldn’t mind keeping Uribe around based on his second half production.
I like Velez for two reasons:
One , he looks like the guy you’d pick Least Likely To Succeed. You could blow him over like a house of cards. So I’m giving him the underdog support vote.
Two , he never has a noncommittal look on his face. Dude is always giddy or depressed , and you know why he’s depressed – because he’s done something Velezlike. So I think he’s genuinely earnest , and not coasting or sucking it up.
Ya know...ignorance really IS bliss.
Well - I do , anyway.
by victor frankenstein on Sep 21, 2009 2:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Not have Bochy manage the team.
His name's Clayton, not Danny.
by walkoff baltimore chop on Sep 21, 2009 1:38 AM PDT reply actions
I maintain the playoffs arent "all that"
You play a few extra games at the end of the season. Eventually, you lose more than you win and then you go home. Whats the big hubbub?
Plotting the ultimate demise of Gore51 (never met him, I dunno he could be swell) so as to adopt Kyle Nicholson.
"I don’t know much about sabre-stats but there’s nothing better than white tea and poptarts first thing in the morning" - tk
by Whiteteaandpoptarts on Sep 21, 2009 7:25 AM PDT reply actions
they have better managers as well...
and luck… they have better luck. and ballpark food, they have better ballpark food. and home radio stations, they have better home radio stations.and their version of mccovey chronicles is better than ours…they have a guy named Tnarg who writes better than our guy. get him to say his own name, though, and boy howdy see what happens then!
Les Plack = more chicks
i claim part ownership of G.I. Joe: Declassified, but only for the funny parts
by Headhunter Rollins on Sep 21, 2009 7:46 AM PDT reply actions
Man, that Yhcob is a good manager.
He really knows how and when to use the single-switch.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Sep 21, 2009 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Changing the subject
Has anyone else noticed that Brian Sabean is being awfully quiet lately? No newspaper interviews, no KNBR appearances, nothing. Is this a sign that he won’t be back? Is it a sign that Bochy won’t be back, and Sabean is very unhappy with him but doesn’t want to say so for the sake of team unity? If I were going to predict, I would go with the latter. He can’t be happy that he traded a top prospect for a player that Bochy never uses, and he brought up his crown minor league jewels to help his team get into the playoffs, and they continue to rot on the bench.
No Edgar, it's not your fault, it's the fault of the idiot that plays you
Can we pull this off?
During the off-season the Giants FO should look into trading for some “Pop!” The Brewers are interested in dealing Fielder and we have the goods to make it happen. Offer Bumbgardner and/or Angel. Also, if Sabean wants to get that contract extension, he better not be afraid to spend a whole lot of loot on an All-Star caliber player, possible Jason Bay. Here’s my 2010 fantasy lineup.
San Francisco Giants
RF Velez
2B Sanchez
LF Bay
1B Fielder
3B Sandoval
SS Uribe
C Posey
CF Rowand
Rotation
1. Scum
2. Sanchez
3. Cain
4. Zito
Who cares??
Probably can’t financially afford to Bay and Fielder.
El Presidente Larry Baer's epitaph
"Nothing important ever happened without me."
I don’t think any team is going to be trading for Angel after yesterday and I doubt any are interested in this Bumbgardner guy either.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
The Gambino Family might have a new interest in AnVil…
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Sep 21, 2009 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions
If we are grabbing, and running, with someone from the Brew Crew and running I want Hardy. That is right Hardy. Stick him at SS and we have a competent, or better, defender at a premium defensive position that occasionally hits and could fill the spot well for a number of years.
I still look at Uggla’s wOBP and the Fish’s genetic ability to bend over a dollar to pick up a penny and I know Uglla will be available at a reasonable rate sometime in the next 2 years. I move Uglla over to 1st and carry on.
That’s it! Katie bar the door for this 79 win team is star crossed! And I am loving it.
They need to play with balls of fire.
El Presidente Larry Baer's epitaph
"Nothing important ever happened without me."
Great ones?
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Sep 21, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions
What does it take to be a playoff team?
Good baseball players and good luck.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
AH MASSA
u take good hitting, mix with good pitching, take good defense up the
middle, mix in bowl with plenty of water, fruit and veges. But most
important son, u need good GM who understand personel, and
manager who can optimize use of personel. You get it? So go
out and get a lineup of free swinging no take walk, player, and
learn from mistake.
by bradleybear on Sep 21, 2009 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions
what does it take to not be a playoff team.
Bochy and Sabean. Unwillingness to go out and
get or trade for a good OPS hitter with power.
Willingness to play guys who are worse than
guys on the bench because of ridiculous
salaries payed to mediocre veterans. Team
who cannot layoff of sliders in the dirt, or fastballs
over their heads. Team who has a virus which
does not allow them to take a walk.
by bradleybear on Sep 21, 2009 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions
Unwillingness to go out and get/trade for a good OPS hitter with power? what would you be cool with them trading exactly? People had a fit giving up Alderson to get Sanchez, and that was what we had to give up just to get a guy who hits for average. Via trade to get the kind of bat you are talking about the team would basically have to lose at least 1 of the starters, as well as a good chunk of the farm. And it’s not like there was anything worth spending money over bat wise last season aside from Ramirez. Adam Dunn? pass.
by dannyschmanny on Sep 23, 2009 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Unwillingness to go out and get/trade for a good OPS hitter with power? what would you be cool with them trading exactly?
I have this radical idea, just hang with me here for a second. We trade Scott Barnes and Tim Alderson. I know I know, crazytalk, but together, they might be able to actually get someone who upgrades our offense….
There was a guy named Russell Branyan available for basically free, that could have been alright. 1B is the easiest position in baseball to find a hitter at…yet we still can’t figure out how oto do that.
that was what we had to give up just to get a guy who hits for average
This is the biggest problem. We pay for batting average. Batting average is a terrible way to judge how productive a player is. I’d rather have a guy who hits for wOBA than batting average, and Brian Sabean fails to understand that…
by Missing Barry on Sep 23, 2009 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Just because its a cliche in some circles
that finding a power hitting 1st baseman is easy doesn’t make it true. FWIW, the Brewers GM gave Branyan a shot to play in AAA when no other team wanted to give him a tryout for a major league roster. I think it might be that no other team wanted to give him a minor league contract.
You can also add whatever symbols or letters to the stat du jour, but the main component is ability to hit. The ability to hit isn’t a terrible thing to use in judging a player.
but the main component is ability to hit.
No. No No No. A million times over No. The main component is the ability to not make an out. wOBA basically adds walks, singles, doubles, triples, and HR’s together based on many runs each of those components contributes. It is a great stat, and much more properly values offensive performance than a terrible stat like batting average.
I used Branyan only as an example, I don’t expect a team to find the diamond in the rough every time. I do expect a team to find a decent offensive first basemen when they’re everywhere, though. Maybe a couple of attempts don’t work out, fine. We haven’t had a decent hitting 1B since Will Clark, though, and Sabean has been running the show since ’97.
Going based on wOBA, because it’s awesome, there are currently 29 1B’s with 300+ PA’s that are hitting better than Travis Ishikawa. They are that readily available. I’m not asking for Pujols, I’m just asking for an above average hitter at 1B (compared to league average). There are 23 of them with 300+ PA’s out there this year, after all. It really is easy to find. Victor Martinez could have been a good start, for instance, and he would have upgraded our team more than Sanchez + Garko did.
by Missing Barry on Sep 23, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions
A billion times YES
The main component in ‘not making an out’ is getting a hit. You’re talking fashion. To declare BA as ‘terrible’ also condemns the stat du jour that uses it as its primary component.
Having your standard as hitting better than Ishi is moving the goalpost.
Walking is also an important part of the process, and the main failing of the Giants over the last 5 years, which is the real reason I feel so strongly about the distinction. A .300 hitter, assuming he has an average walk rate, is a good player, it’s just Brian Sabean almost goes out of his way to get guys who have terrible walk rates, making their .300 BA worthless (see Sanchez, Freddie).
Having your standard as hitting better than Ishi is moving the goalpost.
And you’re right, which is why I included the second part about how there are 23 1B’s who hit above average out there (as opposed to 29 better than Ishikawa). :)
by Missing Barry on Sep 23, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
lowest payroll of that group is Cardinals
$93M, still more than the Giants. The other 4 teams have payrolls over $100M.
of the 9 teams with payrolls over $100, 6 are going to the playoffs this year (assuming Detroit makes it). LOL Houston ($105M)
Only Colorado has a lower payroll than the Giants ($74M) of the 8 presumed playoff teams.
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Sep 21, 2009 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions
I forget
are the Astro’s still cheaping out on draft picks? For awhile there, it was an embarrassment to the game.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
probably, but the number of teams doing that increased during this year’s draft.
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Sep 22, 2009 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions
IMO, here's what they need:
A good coach
A good #3 and #4 hitter
And that’s really it.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Sep 21, 2009 12:01 PM PDT reply actions
I am pretty sure
it’s the exact opposite of becoming a hollywood starlet.
That is “less sucking”
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
More blowing!
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Sep 21, 2009 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions
What does it take to be a playoff team?
In the NL, the answer to that is, on average, ~89+ wins in the regular season. Simple as that.
I guess what I meant
was that the Giants might make the playoffs with that, but as a playoff team we’d pretty much be waiting for their hitters to dry up, and for one of the opposing three teams they’d face to outlast them over the course of of 10-19 games.
All we really need to do is make the playoffs. Contrary to popular opinion, the best team does not usually win the World Series. The playoffs are basically a huge crapshoot and no team has much more than a 1/8 chance of winning them….so all we have to do is make it and hope for the best.
by Missing Barry on Sep 22, 2009 7:23 AM PDT up reply actions
What does it take to be a playoff team?
More fat guys!
Brian Sabean strongly encourages you to disregard the drudgery of your employment responsibilities and join him in the consumption of spirituous libations.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
The Jeremy Brown quote
Yes when the Giants roll out their fatfield – Moilina C, Garko 1B, Uribe 2B, Renteria SS, Pablo 3B – other than Bengie and Renteria – it is an homage to Moneyball. Fat cheap guys – Garko, Uribe, Renteria. Don’t have to be in shape to hit a baseball. Babe Ruth showed us that.
in fact, Sabean, the anti-Money Baller, owes more to Billy Bean than he could ever comprehend. This team is basically based on several key pre-arbitration pitchers. But what does the future hold?
by San Francisco Slim on Sep 22, 2009 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Sorry
Pablo’s cheap, not Renteria.
by San Francisco Slim on Sep 22, 2009 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions
Renteria is neither fat or cheap.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
It takes two turntables and a microphone.
WHY IS BOCOCK?!
by Lars The Wanderer on Sep 21, 2009 2:32 PM PDT reply actions
give velez steroids over the winter
With a little pumping up this guy could hit 30 homers. Let Bowker play next year he could hit 25 to 30 homers and walk a bit, Schierholtz could play right and throw out 20 guys trying to advance. Velez plays second, bye bye Freddie Sanchez and your 8 million bucks for a singles hitter. Pittsburgh didn’t win crap with Sanchez and either will the giants. Pablo and Posey in the same lineup. Unless Bengie is willing to take a walk, and lose 20 pounds he is gone. If Posey is our main catcher we will need a better backup than whiteside. Maybe Garko could be our backup catcher.
by bradleybear on Sep 21, 2009 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
…
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
EITHER WILL THE GIANTS, INDEED.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Sep 21, 2009 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions
Do you really think 20 pounds is going to make much difference? and if any player could lose some impact pounds, is Molina the one?
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Sep 21, 2009 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions
You make it sound like hitting 25-30 HR’s is an easy thing to accomplish, and we’re just brimming with players that could do it if we just gave them a chance. Right now there are 41 players with 25+ HR’s this season, barely more than 1 a team. It isn’t that easy. Bowker has a huge hole in his swing MLB pitchers have exploited every time he’s been up in the show. Velez has 5 HR’s this season in almost half a season’s worth of PA’s. He also has a .321 OBP, which is 15-20 points below league average. Defense also matters – especially up the middle, and Velez simply cannot play 2B adequately (nor can Garko play C). Did I mention Velez is 27 this season? Schierholtz has a cannon for an arm, but so far this season for every run he’s saved with it by throwing someone out, he’s allowed a run to score by not hitting the cutoff or by overthrowing a base. Finally, I don’t see why we need to upgrade our backup C if Posey is starting. What about Posey starting changes our needs at backup C?
by Missing Barry on Sep 22, 2009 7:29 AM PDT up reply actions
It takes
A lot of this:
And not a lot of this:
"Pablo, Bengie, and Sanchez would likely start on some of those teams..."
I refuse to believe that Bengie would be in the starting lineup of any one of those teams you listed.
Bengie would be on the starting lineup of most of those teams because he is a really good catcher and handles staffs well. He would just be hitting 8th like he should be. Most or all those teams are pretty stacked offensively so any production they get from him on that side of the ball would just be viewed as bonus unlike being in our lineup.
He might be a really good C, I don’t know but I certainly don’t have evidence that he isn’t. However, what I do have is knowledge that every time people have looked for an actual effect of game how catchers handle a staff, they’ve found….nothing. Smart teams don’t value something they can’t even demonstrate has an effect on the end result higher than things they know substantially impact the game (hitting ability). Basically, of all MLB players with 400+ PA’s, only 16 have been worse hitters than Bengie Molina this season. One of them, unfortunately, is Edgar Renteria. Smart teams don’t give bums like them 400+ PA’s.
by Missing Barry on Sep 23, 2009 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions
I’m not saying it doesn’t exist. I’m saying nobody has been able to find it’s existance in any substantial way, which should make people seriously question whether it should be valued higher than other important traits. Smart teams like the Red Sox will pay some money for it, just not a lot, and if I was running a team I’d do the same way. If your players feel more comfortable, of course you should try to do that for them, just not at a significant expense or in place of things known to help a team win.
What this means to the argument against Bengie is his hitting is really that bad that any “game calling” skills are probably not worth dealing with just how bad his offensive production is. Defensive ability is a different question, though, as it does have a substantial impact on the end result and the real problem is how to measure defensive ability at C. I don’t know, so I’m certainly open to the fact that Bengie’s defense adds a lot of value – the truth is I really don’t have any grasp of how much value it adds or subtracts.
by Missing Barry on Sep 23, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions
You're wrong
plenty of people have been able to find its existence in a substantial way. The problem is your universe is small and limited.
My impression of Bengie, which is limited, is that’s he’s not that great of a defensive catcher. Even if people aren’t that good at calling a game, it still might be one of those cliches that are trotted out as a defense. Regardless, the way the game is called can be important. Evaluating it by outsiders is extraordinarily difficult.
I could be wrong, it’s not like it’s never happened before. That said, I do have references that support my claim (in chronological order):
First one
Second one
Third one
plenty of people have been able to find its existence in a substantial way. The problem is your universe is small and limited.
If there’s evidence/research out there I’m missing, I’d like to see it if you can provide links?
by Missing Barry on Sep 23, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions
3 from BP
I went to the first and its grossly dependent on correlations, a method fraught with pitfalls especially given the multitude of other factors involved. The author declared that his interpretation of the data was objective while participants and close observers data was “subjective.”
Its interesting that you use the word ‘evidence.’ Where else does that rule out experts and actual participants other than the entrepeneurial movement of selling new statistics for baseball?
Have you never seen a great pitch sequence or a pitcher/catcher set up a hitter?
Think of the implication: calling games would not be a significant skill.
The entreperneurial movement of selling new statistics?
I haven’t seen many legitimate stats that aren’t publicly available. Well, except UZR for about 18 months.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
The relevant point is nobody has found any evidence it may exist in any way.
Where else does that rule out experts and actual participants
The problem is historically these people have tended to not know very much about what wins baseball games. There are a number fo people in the game who STILL don’t understand the value of a walk, and rely on flawed metrics like RBI’s, R’s, BA, pitchers W-L and ERA to value players when these stats are not very good, especially compared to other things we have to evaluate players. Basically, I have no reason to believe “experts” claims on anything in a vacuum – I ask for actual evidence their claims exist, and believe it when I see the evidence. For instance, if an “expert” were to tell me Player X is a “clutch player”, I’d ask for proof. Turns out clutch hitting doesn’t really exist, and the “expert” is wrong. This happens all the time with baseball commentators. Excuse me for being skeptical of their “knowledge”. Any claim should be examined to see if it’s true or not before it’s simply accepted. When it comes to game calling, I simply ask for evidence it has a substantial effect on the game.
“Think of the implication: calling games would not be a significant skill.”
This is not the implication at all. The implication is that the skill doesn’t vary in any significant ways across catchers to have an actual impact on end results. If you can’t find any evidence to the contrary, why would you pay a large premium for a skill you aren’t sure even exists or has an impact on the end result? How does it make sense to simply ignore evidence contrary to your opinion when there’s no evidence that backs your opinion up?
by Missing Barry on Sep 24, 2009 7:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Substantial how?
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Sep 23, 2009 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions
People who played the game said so, duh.
The same guys who massively overrated basestealing relative to caught stealing, b1tch about patient hitters clogging the bases, and invented the specialist closer.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
great description of all of the participants in baseball
If only you had control of the team. How many years would it take to get a World Series? Could you then win it with regularity?
I was really just going for Dusty Baker.
Though I guess the last one pretty much does apply to all of them.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Could you then win it with regularity?
You can’t win the World Series with regularity. Once you make the playoffs, no team has a much greater than 1/8 chance of winning the World Series. All a good GM can do is continue to get his team into the playoffs (and I guess they can do things to increase their playoff odds, it just won’t increase them by a large amount)…
(Note: I’m not using this as strong evidence of anything, I just think it’s a really cool visualization of the concept)
by Missing Barry on Sep 24, 2009 7:51 AM PDT up reply actions
2006 is funny.
I know you nerds know NOTHING about the real game of baseball, or any other athletic endeavor requiring teamwork under physical stress.
Mr. F! | comics | art | Nattowear | Unofficial McImage Directory
Hierarchy
This postseason has a pretty clear hierarchy. Giants were third tier.
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