Zito for Soriano...would you do it?
by NeifiChicken on Sep 15, 2009 2:29 PM PDT
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Zito is owed 83 million over 4 years (or 94 million over 5 years) and Soriano is owed 90 million over the next 5 years.
Both contracts are terrible, and if I had asked this question last year I'm sure everyone here would have shouted "obviously, where do I sign?" but this year Soriano has been terrible and Zito has regained some of his old velocity and form.
So if this was a realistic option in the off-season, would you want it?
Obviously there's a whole bunch of logistical factors (both have NTC's, etc.) but at the heart of the issue is the simple question of who do you think would help the Giants more over the next 4-5 years: Alfonso Soriano or Barry Zito?
I'd hands down be in the Soriano camp, but out of pure curiosity I just wanted to see where other people fall on this question
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As of now, no I wouldnt do it
Before the season, I would have been all over it
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SCIENCE
I thought this would be close before I pulled up their BR pages, but now that I’ve looked at them, there’s no way I would make that trade. I’m no stat computer, but a 33 year old LF who has lost his speed and pop, and never had much plate discipline or ability to hit for average does not sound too hot. I’ll take a #4 starter over that in a second.
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Uhhh......
I’m no stat computer, but a 33 year old LF who has lost his speed and pop, and never had much plate discipline or ability to hit for average does not sound too hot.
Doesn’t that make Soriano a perfect candidate for this Giants squad?
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
Sadly, yes
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/notes my only post there was a dumb joke based on a typo
/is satisfied
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I have no posts in that thread, and they were all dumb jokes. So there.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Sep 15, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions
lol my reaction back then
“Uh yeah”
funny what a difference a month and a half can make.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
I do not think I would do that trade.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
b
I guess it mostly depends on whether
A. you think Zito is a good bet to keep up his 2009 level of performance for at least the next couple of years.
or
B. you think that Soriano is likely to bounce back from this year to his 120ish OPS+ level of production.
Considering just how terrible Soriano has been this year, I think the Cubs would have to kick in a prospect before I even thought about it.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
Also
I’d be much more interested in trading for Milton Bradley, though he’s obviously the sort of player Sabean would never go for.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
I would do this trade in 3 seconds ago
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by Useful_Idiot on Sep 15, 2009 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes, I would absolutely do it!
Now, to answer your question about Zito and Soriano….
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
I’d like to see the Giants work a deal for Hunter Pence in the offseason, if that is possible?
They would probably have to give up less for him as opposed to a Holliday, Bay or Crawford……but the guy is young, has a good arm, and decent pop.
Holliday and Bay are both free agents, so you can’t trade for them. Crawford is going to be a free agent after this year. Hunter Pence is only just having his first arb-eligible year and would be under team control for 3 years. He would cost a hell of a lot more in trade than Crawford.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
Next year’s FA pool is pretty sorry for outfielders…..way too many blue hairs in there.
I think the Giants are going to need to look at clearing payroll as well as letting some talent go to pick up big league ready players. Pence is an example of one who is still young and somewhat proven…..this is what they need to find and there are many more out there…..and some on teams that need to re-think their approach…..aka pitching…..and the Giants have some to part with.
What pitching do the Giants have to part with anymore? You give up Cain or Sanchez and there’s suddenly a gaping hole in the rotation that you either need to plug through FA (which will cost $$) or with Bumgarner (who is not major league ready.) You need a fifth starter regardless. You trade Bumgarner and all of a sudden there’s no one close to the majors who profiles as better than a 5th/spot starter.
You aren’t going to get Pence for anything less than one of those three players.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
What pitching do the Giants have to part with anymore?
I’m saying Wilson. Not because I don’t like him or underappreciate it, but because I think he’s the most valuable player we could most afford to lose.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
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Well, yeah, but he’s probably going to get a good chunk of money in arb and that + the cost in players it’ll take to acquire him probably makes up the difference money-wise (if not more).
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
True, but would you rather invest in a 26 year old with his numbers, or a 30+ player with similar numbers? I realize the Astros may consider Pence untouchable, but my main point is that the Giants need to get away from this veteran addiction and pony up for some proven youth.
Obviously everyone would rather invest in Hunter Pence than Matt Holliday (though I would say their numbers aren’t really similar – Holliday is a flat-out much better player than Pence). But given the Giants situation, Holliday is probably a far more realistic target than Pence is.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
This
I’m more and more aboard the Holliday train every day.
I also wonder whether the rich AL teams are less likely to pursue him after his failure in the AL this season.
It might come down to us vs. the Cardinals.
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I really think the Mets will pursue him too
go rowand
by lincypoo i wuv u on Sep 16, 2009 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions
Not after Madoff. The Mets owners lost millions, 500+ IIRC, and the already have the second most expensive payroll in baseball. I don’t see them spending a lot this off season.
I R 5
by say hey nation on Sep 16, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
You can’t have everything, Veruca.
Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard
by SoFa King Mike on Sep 15, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions
I'd say no unless
The Cubs tossed in a lot of cash (which they probably don’t have during the ownership change) and a decent prospect. I doubt the cubs would do that, so we’ll just have to stick with a #4 starter being the highest paid player on our team.
Grab Some Pine Meat!
my target is Thomas Neal in left field by late 2010. Shagging opponents fly balls off Zito.
And not forgetting, he will play 1B if you ask him nicely also.
cheering for Adam Witter, who will hit bigleague dingers some day.
Still yelling "Go, Antoan"
I like Neal, but how long will it take for us to know if he is for real or not?
We still don’t really know about Lewis or Schierholtz? Add Velez, now Torres and we have ourselves some issues to deal with.
We’ve got plenty of 1B’s as well……what the hell are we doing?
Depends on who you describe as “us”. I’ve seen Neal. And he is real. With the not so weird beard.
Having just “depth” at a position is a whole different matter than having “talented depth”.
Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard
by SoFa King Mike on Sep 15, 2009 4:07 PM PDT up reply actions
So what you are saying is that by late 2010 we will still not have a regular starting LF?
My point is that the Giants have way too many unprovens floating around in their outfield, and it seems like the most likely place to make an investment for the future.
I still dunno about Lewis/Schierholtz/Velez/Torres? Would you pick any of them as an everyday starter?
At some point this insane platooning has to stop…..doesn’t it?
So who are these imaginary talents that you speak of?
I think the problem is how to manage these guys and let them play on a consistent basis. Who really cares if they don’t start everyday and platoon. As long as you are being productive, you should play. But going back on what I mentioned about managing playing time, the wrong players (as in old and non-productive) keep getting placed out there by Bochy.
Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard
by SoFa King Mike on Sep 15, 2009 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I still dunno about Lewis/Schierholtz/Velez/Torres? Would you pick any of them as an everyday starter?
Fred Lewis, yes. Above average OBP? I could go for some of that…
by Missing Barry on Sep 15, 2009 7:20 PM PDT up reply actions
the AFL will be telling, as far as how ready, and to a lesser extent, how real he is.
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by haverecords on Sep 15, 2009 10:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Soriano sucks. I hated him even when he used to be supposedly good. Not to mention he’s a hacker who cries when he’s not hitting in the leadoff spot.
I don’t see any reason why Zito can’t continue to pitch like he has this year in the next couple of years.
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Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard
by SoFa King Mike on Sep 15, 2009 4:40 PM PDT up reply actions
No way do you make that trade
Not only would it leave a gaping hole in the rotation for next year, but Zito will be much easier to trade in a few years than Soriano will be. Even when this deal was signed, I didn’t think he would end up being here the entire length. Zito is durable, has playoff experience and is the type of left hander that will probably be pitching into his forties. Soriano is aging, has never been clutch, and doesn’t play defense worth a crap. There’s no question I’d rather have Zito…
by crazedcrustacean on Sep 15, 2009 5:08 PM PDT reply actions
the worst part about the trade would be that bochy would instantly put soriano in our leadoff spot where he hurts the team the most.
FREE BUSTER
by TimLincecumIsGod on Sep 15, 2009 8:19 PM PDT reply actions
Hayull naw
Neither of their contracts are exactly ideal, but at least Zito isn’t horrible. Soriano is under contract for another year and has exploding hamstrings/quads/nipples. He has also been extremely awful this year. Zito is definitely a serviceable 4th starter at least, and this year he’s been better than that. They both cost a shitload, but at least Zito is showing some promise this year.
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I upgrade my answer to
AW HALE NO
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
At this moment in time it is a tough decision.
If you said this in the off season between 2008-2009 I would have made the trade in a heartbeat, but after Soriano’s injuries and off year, and Zito’s semi-resurgence. I cannot at this time be sure if I would pull the string.
by bradleybear on Sep 15, 2009 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Zito has far more endurance than Soriano
Hasn’t missed a start in years, and he’s actually in BETTER condition this year than last year. (evidence: 92mph fastball. Nuf said)
Why would you trade an upward curve for a downward one?
I choose to watch the Giants try to score runs. Not because it is easy, but because it is hard.
Of course not, for one Zito has one less year on, which means we could possibly allocate money to a better player a year earlier, or at least give us more flexibility down the road. Two, Soriano has turned into one of the worst players in the game and doesn’t show any time of breaking out of it. They seem to be having different career arcs now with Zito improving and Soriano getting worse, how could you justify having a rapidly declining Soriano for an extra year over an improving Barry Zito, I am interested to hear why you are in the Soriano camp.
Congrats to my soul mate and birth brother Zach Wheeler on being drafted into greatness. Should I just buy my Wheeler jersey now, or wait till my next birthday?
which means we could possibly allocate money to a better player a year earlier
Could this better player potentially be….Tim Lincecum? He hits FA when Zito comes off the books. Just saying…
by Missing Barry on Sep 16, 2009 7:08 AM PDT up reply actions
Probably, but Timmy will already be making the big bucks before he hits, although it would never hurt to get a big contract off the books a year earlier no matter what.
Congrats to my soul mate and birth brother Zach Wheeler on being drafted into greatness. Should I just buy my Wheeler jersey now, or wait till my next birthday?
Well, he’ll be making the big bucks, but assuming he continues pitching as well as he has, I still expect a significant pay raise when free agency comes around (if we don’t buy out his arbitration years/FA years or anything).
by Missing Barry on Sep 16, 2009 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions
Kruk takes Randy Winn to show Grant up.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
oops
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
"AT LAST I AM A PARENTS." - Buster
That’s like twice this week.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Sep 16, 2009 12:05 AM PDT up reply actions
Hmm, interesting question
Soriano’s last three years are great/good/faceplant.
Zito’s are mediocre/mediocre/average.
I guess it depends on how risky you feel like being.
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Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
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I hate Zero with a passion.
But no way I would do this trade.
If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding.
Soriano recently had knee surgery
The questions are whether you think the injury hampered his production this year and whether he’ll manage to stay healthy for the foreseeable future. I’m guessing most people think the answers to those questions are “yes” and “no,” respectively.
Also, during the season he moved out of the leadoff spot without any trouble. Whether or not Bochy would do it is another matter altogether, but Soriano probably wouldn’t object to to moving down the order at this point.
Soriano is falling apart and just had season-ending knee surgery. He’s not young any more, his speed is failing, and who knows how well he will come back.
Until this year, Zito may not have been good, but he’s at least durable, and he’s young enough that the changes this year may stick. I would absolutely not make that trade.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Sep 16, 2009 9:09 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
And BOWKERMANIA
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Sep 16, 2009 9:10 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Bowkermania (and Velezmania, and KFred, and Neal Before) is the only reason I wouldn’t make the trade. Soriano seems likely to rebound somewhat from his rotten year, and Zito’s likely to un-rebound from his good one.
But we don’t particularly need a left fielder.
I don’t know about Zito turning back into a pumpkin. This is perhaps one of those situations in which STATS alone – particularly regression to Zito’s previously established level of craptastitude – may not be appropriate, because we have knowledge of a variable that belies the otherwise fluke nature of Zito’s year. He has done something to regain his velocity, and that’s made him a different pitcher. Plus he’s young still and presumably not going off the cliff.
Zito’s K/9 of 7.1 is higher than Cain’s, and Zito’s highest since his 2002 CYA year. His BB/9 of 3.6 is his lowest since 2005, and his K/BB of 1.99 is his best since 2004. It’s a far, far cry from the 1.18 K/BB he put up last year, and it’s a pretty solid bet that the added velocity is the reason.
Zito has an ERA+ of 109 (!!!!), which puts him in #2 starter territory (I know, not on this team). His FIP is 4.22, but Zito has a long history of confounding FIP, and he’s doing it this year without the extreme BABIP numbers he put up in the early part of the decade. Given that Zito’s career BABIP is .274, his .286 this year is pretty reasonable and doesn’t scream fluke.
Don’t think that I wouldn’t like to rid the team of Zito’s contract, but he’s far from crapping the bed this year. He may be paid a hell of a lot more than a #2 starter should get, but at least he’s pitching like a #2 and not like a guy barely holding on to a #5 spot.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Sep 16, 2009 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions
Soriano’s career may legitimately be over in terms of meaningful production. This kind of thing happens to players in their mid-30’s. The steroids era altered baseball’s perception of a players career path (players seemed to produce later into their 30’s), and now we’re seeing a correction, at least in my opinion.
by Missing Barry on Sep 16, 2009 10:49 AM PDT up reply actions
No telling what will happen to Soriano in particular, but in general I expect to see plenty of productive 35- and 38- and 41-year-olds going forward. Steroids are just one of the modern medicine and training advantages that players didn’t have in the past, and I suspect they’re a minor element. Not to mention that the labs will probably keep coming up with newer and harder-to-detect PEDs.
Eh, to a degree I agree with you, but I do think there will be some step back. There have been successful old guys before (Hank Aaron anyone?), and will continue to be. Those tend to be the great players though, while lesser ones tend to decline far earlier. There’s definitely a chance Soriano is done. I just think on average players peaks and longevity will regress closer to what they were in the past.
by Missing Barry on Sep 16, 2009 11:46 AM PDT up reply actions
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