Tim Lincecum Has The Best Pitch In Baseball
by xanthan on Aug 3, 2009 7:15 AM PDT
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PrintUsing FanGraphs' linear weights for pitch-types, I ranked the best and worst pitches (fastballs, changeups, sliders, curveballs, and cutters) in baseball. I'm using the cumulative value for pitches and not the 'per 100 pitches' version on FanGraphs.
I set the cutoff at pitchers with at least 30 IP.
The tables are simple, green side = top pitchers for that pitch, red side = worst pitchers for that pitch, and Giants are highlighted with orange.
Lincecum's changeup is the single most devastating pitch in baseball. To this point, it's been worth 27.5 runs above the average changeup or about 2.7 wins of value. No other pitch in the game is almost worth +30 runs except Lincecum's changeup.
Zito's changeup didn't fare as well, ranking as a below-average pitch.
Matt Cain gets into the green side for heaters. Cain's got one of the better fastballs in the game right now. I'll also note that BIS lumps 2-seamers, 4-seamers, and sinkers all into the fastball category. Pineiro throws a sinker/2-seamer and I suspect a few other of these pitchers are throwing a 2-seam or a sinker.
Ex-Giant David Aardsma's fastball has been fantastic this year. It's even more impressive that he made the list as a reliever. That's a testament to how good his fastball has been.
Franciso Liranio's fastball has taken a beating this season. Decreased velocity and command don't help.
Zito's curveball has been a plus for him this year. It's a pretty nice swing for Zito. The last time his curveball was above average by these pitch-type linear weights was in 2005 when it was worth +9.2 runs on the year.
I'm wondering if Brad Penny's injuries have had an affect on the quality of his curveball? Or if it's a league adjustment thing?
No Giants make the slider list. Zack Greinke is pretty amazing. He's got an above-averge slider and fastball. Good weapons to take on hitters with. Luke Gregerson's slider is playing filthy in San Diego.
Scott Feldman's cutter has been amazing this year. He throws it almost 30% of the time and it's given hitters a lot of problems. Mariano Rivera's cutter is still one of the better pitches in the game.
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Matt Cain is right behind de la Rosa on the change up list with 7.9 runs. He should use the change up more.
Looks like Cain's already taking your advice
year changeup as of pitches
2007- 8.6 (75.8)
2008- 10.6% (86.4)
2009- 13.1% (86.3)
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
that should read “changeup as a percentage of total pitches”
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
Which kind of brings to mind a problem with this list.
Wouldn’t the effectiveness of one pitch be affected by the effectiveness of another pitch, especially with regards to fastballs/changeups? Did I use effect/affect correctly? There’ve been times when I’ve fect that up.
My son is Madison Bumgarner, the Spacebat of pitching prospects. My other son is a Porsche.
effect/affect
You got it right!
Almost always, “affect” is a verb and “effect” is a noun. “Effect” can be used as a verb (meaning “cause”), but it’s not that common.
Right.
So let me ask the obvious (if only to me alone) question:
Isn’t Tim’s change sort of the spike set up by his fastball? Or is the combination of his motion and thusly deceptive release…no , wait , it’s still reflective of the fastball. That’s what they’re expecting , and it arrives much too late – like their realization , lol…
so why doesn’t his fastball – without which his change wouldn’t be as effective – get better billing on the fastball list?.
NL West TempestTeapot
Nothing matters , and what if it did?
by victor frankenstein on Aug 3, 2009 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I don’t get how they can disentangle these things. If Lincecum throws two fastballs to a batter and they’re both fouled off, and then he strikes the guy out with a changeup, does the changeup get all the credit for the AB?
Ah, I get it now.
Here is an explanation. They compute the run value of every pitch in every AB, so in my hypothetical example, the fastball would, in fact, the credit for producing the 0-2 count, which would reduce the opposition’s expected runs scored in the inning by some amount, depending on the situation.
Just to reply to myself one more time…
There’s a slight mistake in my explanation above. The run value of each pitch is computed on a “context-neutral” basis (runners on and number of outs don’t matter). So, in my example, the value of strike 1 is 0.043 runs, strike 2 is 0.062 runs, and strike 3 is worth 0.184 runs. The changeup, then, would get about 2/3 of the runs from the AB.
Nerds who want to see the context-neutral run value of every possible outcome in every count can look here.
I’ve seen some attempts to look at these things through pitch values. I don’t remember where, but I definitely saw an analysis looking at his changeup’s effectiveness before and after a fastball. It was contrasted against some other pitcher. Sorry I don’t remember more, I just remember Lincecum was the exact opposite of this other pitcher – his changeup was more effective before or after his fastball (can’t remember which), while the other pitcher was the opposite.
by Missing Barry on Aug 3, 2009 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions
I think it was the Fangraphs article comparing his change up to Rich Harden’s.
Still in despair.
BRING BACK MARMOL!
konakona:「つかさに教われと...なんか非常に負けたような気がする。」
Shun Kakazu: MOAR JAPANESE PROSPECTS PLZ
by Zetsuboushita on Aug 4, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/lincecums-great-changeup/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/hardens-huge-whiff-rate
Found them, thanks. They look at the relationship between fastball and changeup. It’s interesting.
by Missing Barry on Aug 4, 2009 4:29 PM PDT up reply actions
Curiously, he’s throwing the fastball more than ever.
Looking at that data actually makes me more bullish about Liriano’s future. His slider and changeup are still good pitches; he may need to throw them more often.
maybe his slider is what destroyed his elbow
Randy Winn is in time out until his OBP gets back over .330.
I’m under the impression Liriano is intentionally throwing not many sliders to ease the stress on his arm.
by Missing Barry on Aug 3, 2009 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions
The bit about Tim is particularly fascinating, considering he was originally scouted as a fastball/power curve pitcher. The development of his changeup as an apparently elite pitch could be what catapulted him from very good to great.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
The bit about Tim is particularly fascinating, considering he was originally scouted as a fastball/power curve pitcher.
Totally agree. It’s pretty amazing that he put together his changeup at the MLB level against the highest level of competition.
His changeup, right now, is basically on par with Santana’s changeup during his great run from 2004-2006.
Santana’s changeup values for those years:
2004 – 23.2 runs
2005 – 20.5 runs
2006 – 26.5 runs
Again, it’s amazing that it’s a pitch that he basically put together at the MLB level. I think Tim should learn a knuckler.
Knuckler + Chris Lincecum’s 88mph fastball at age 50? Tim will pitch forever.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
He actually has a knuckleball
I heard you can throw a wicked knuckleball but nobody on our staff can catch it. Is that true?
-James from Isla Vista
Ha! I used to throw one in high school. It was fun to throw. I think the bigger laces in college baseball and high school made them a little more nasty. I don’t know, I haven’t gotten around to throw it too much here. A few guys on the team do. Wilson throws a pretty good knuckeball and so does Cain.
http://blogs.mercurynews.com/extrabaggs/2009/05/21/tim-lincecum-answers-your-questions/
He should break it in during spring training
He's saving it...
…he’ll break it out if hitters ever start to solve his changeup.
“You just got rocked, so why are you smiling?”
“Because I know something you do not know…”
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
he does bat left-handed
a clue, perhaps?
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
Brian Wilson could be the first closer ever to throw a knuckleball. That would be awesome. Or terrible
Wall-E for Best Picture 2008
2009: The return of Los Galacticos!
I’ll throw you a rope…
Minor White > Ansel Adams
by say hey nation on Aug 3, 2009 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions
or a bone
NL West TempestTeapot
Nothing matters , and what if it did?
by victor frankenstein on Aug 3, 2009 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions
Tim Wakefield did it for a short while.
Randy Winn is in time out until his OBP gets back over .330.
"...for a short while."
That’s a very oldjacket!
NL West TempestTeapot
Nothing matters , and what if it did?
by victor frankenstein on Aug 3, 2009 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions
NL West TempestTeapot
Nothing matters , and what if it did?
by victor frankenstein on Aug 3, 2009 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
i've seen him throw it
coupla springs ago, he and Cain were having a knuckleball catch. Cain’s was pretty OK, but Lincecum’s was ridiculous. It would get almost to Cain’s glove and then dive, making it completely impossible to catch — never mind hit.
Billy Hayes: His job is better than yours.
oh god
must see in game some day
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
That would be absolutely brilliant.
Like an eephus pitch, just coming absolutely out of nowhere…
Status: Feels so broke up. Wants to go home. || Still boycotting Johnsonville and Giants souvenirs or ballpark foods for repossessing my K Wall in right field.
So are the results for Zito’s change a function of just how poorly the pitch have been executed ( ie not enough speed difference or delivery not similar enough etc) or could it be partially from situational pitch calling ?
That’s it! Katie bar the door for this 79 win team is star crossed! And I am loving it.
Hopefully it’s just variance, over his career the changeup has been worth +60 runs to Zito in total.
Well with the documents dip in his fastball velocity over parts of the last 12-18 months and the velocity returning some over the last few weeks I can see were that reduce that change ups effectiveness.
Of course part of me would love to see a day when stats available to the general public would allow some almost rational discussion on catchers pitch calling duties as well. With Zito an Washburn being thte only 2 pitchers I notice with pitches in both extreames and yet haveing good years it kind of brought up the pitch calling thing to mind as well.
That’s it! Katie bar the door for this 79 win team is star crossed! And I am loving it.
Washburn is getting helped out by Seattle’s amazing OF defense. He’s a flyball pitcher and the M’s have turned a ton of his flyballs into outs.
He was at that I also think he was getting “lucky” in that seemed to me the hard hit balls were more at players, or in times of the game with less leverage. This is a totally unscientific observation though on my part. It just seems an interest coincidence him and Zito having decent -good seasons and owning pitches on both extremes is all.
That’s it! Katie bar the door for this 79 win team is star crossed! And I am loving it.
maybe Pitch f/x can’t tell his fastball from his changeup.
Randy Winn is in time out until his OBP gets back over .330.
lolz
The pitch types are from BIS, and to my knowledge, are done by people watching video. I could be wrong on that. It presents it’s own problems, though.
Crap, Kershaw has some crazy good pitches
Curve +7.6
Fastball +20.9
And that is pitching a moderate (120) amount of innings!
Minor White > Ansel Adams
Thats 37 less than Timmy and 20 less than Cain
Minor White > Ansel Adams
by say hey nation on Aug 3, 2009 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Ned: Please trade Kershaw for one year of Roy Halladay in the offseason.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
-80 run value
Jesse Foppert: I Still Believe. Maybe a little less now.
"I've come to the conclusion that the two most important things in life are good friends and a good bullpen." ~Bob Lemon,
by AndYourBirdCanSing on Aug 3, 2009 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Random Observation
A lot of the bad curve ball pitchers are in the AL.
Brandon Crawford: Your SF Giants 2011 Opening Day starting SS!
Thats b/c Xanthan didn’t use the league adjustment.
Its +100 runs for the AL and -100 for the NL
Minor White > Ansel Adams
by say hey nation on Aug 3, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Joba would have the best of every pitch if he played in the NL
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
He would already have the next five NL Cy Youngs.
Tim Lincecum would be a AAAA pitcher in the AL.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
all-star game was proof
my cousin and i got noah lowry's autograph after he came out of a porta-potty. he was nice about it.
stagefright.
The time will come when Lincecum will be comfortable there.
It’ll be awwwesome.
NL West TempestTeapot
Nothing matters , and what if it did?
by victor frankenstein on Aug 3, 2009 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions
not this year
Minor White > Ansel Adams
by say hey nation on Aug 3, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
note to Owings and Saunders: stop throwing off-speed junk.
Xanthan, do you happen to have the stats for “best” pitch in recent years? I’d love to see where Timmeh’s change ranks in recent history.
ps. how sick is it that his changeup is still a relative baby?
how good is the giants' starting rotation? our rotation is so good, our 5th starters throw no-hitters. uh.
by Golden Gate Review on Aug 4, 2009 12:56 PM PDT reply actions
I think someone has been reading xanthan’s FanPost. Jeff Passan posted a similar article last night regarding FanGraphs. Here are the snippets about Giants players:
6) The best pitch in baseball is a changeup, and you’ll never guess who throws it.
Tim Lincecum came up heralded for his blazing fastball and hammer curveball, and neither is close to his best pitch. Lincecum’s changeup has been 27.5 runs above average this year, the highest total for any pitch and almost double the second-best change, Brian Tallet’s 14-runs-above special. It’s not like Lincecum piles up the runs above average by throwing the changeup egregiously. His 5.62 runs above per 100 changeups thrown is also the best for that pitch.
23) For the last six years, scouts have pegged Aaron Rowand totally wrong.
How only 7.5 percent of pitches to Rowand last year were curveballs – and how the number has averaged 8.7 percent the last six years – is inconceivable considering Rowand can’t hit one worth a damn. He’s been above average once in the last eight years, and finally pitchers are throwing him more curves than anyone else – 13.3 percent, highest in baseball – with which he’s doing nothing: 2.31 runs below average per 100.
24) Travis Ishikawa is like a left-handed, half-Japanese Pedro Cerrano.
Like his Giants teammate Rowand, he cannot hit a curve. His 6.85 runs below per 100 is worst in baseball among hitters with 200 plate appearances.
Carlos Mencia = Jeff Passan
/soils self
Giant Dirtbags: John Bowker, Steve Hammond. MIA List: Todd Jennings, Brian Anderson
Wronghanded Affeldt pitches right
by Giant among Angels on Aug 5, 2009 10:27 PM PDT up reply actions
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