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Around SBN: Beyond The Boxscore's Week 17 MLB Power Rankings

Giants vs Rockies comparing rosters

So after hearing and reading so much about how the Rockies are "top to bottom" such a more talented team than the Giants the last couple days I decided to break the rosters down to compare the talent side by side.

I decided for my comparison to only compare the 22 most relevant players since the players after that are relatively unimportant to the big picture.  Although they can be maddeningly overplayed in some cases (Aurillia, Burriss...ahem).  Also I realize it is kind of cheating but I did include Freddie Sanchez as a starter even though he has been injured for most of his time with the Giants.  Anyways without further adieu here is my highly scientific comparison of the rosters side by side.

SP    Lincecum    >>    Marquis
SP    Cain    >>    Jimenez
SP    Zito    >    Cook
SP    Sanchez    =    De La Rosa
SP    Martinez    <    Hammel

CL    Wilson    <    Street
Setup    Affeldt    >    Betancort
Setup    Romo    <    Morales
RP    Medders    <    Fogg
RP    Miller    <    Daley

C    Molina    >    Ianetta
1B    Garko    <<    Helton
2B    Sanchez    =    Barmes
SS    Renteria    <<    Tulowitzki
3B    Sandoval    >>    Stewart
LF    Lewis    =    Spilborghs
CF    Rowand    =    Fowler
RF    Schierholtz    <<    Hawpe

Bench    Winn    <    Gonzalez
Bench    Uribe    >    Atkins
Bench    Velez    <    Smith
Bench    Ishikawa    >    Torrealba

You will notice that I have added in some extra science when comparing the players because some comparisons involve highly unequal players (>>), some where there is clearly a superior player (>), and some that are essentially equal (=).  Here are the breakdowns from my comparisons:

The Giants have 3 far superior players and 5 superior players with 4 players being about equal

The Rockies have 3 far superior players and 7 superior players with 4 players being about equal

From this highly scientific analysis I derived that the Rockies have slightly more talent but nothing that I would call "top to bottom" advantages over the Giants. I don't think this is a perfect way to analyze things but I think it is one way to put into perspective that the talent level between the two teams is remarkably close.  The Rockies have more balance between their offensive and pitching talent but if I had to pick one of the two areas to be unbalanced in I would always pick the pitching side.

Also I know the last series was hard to stomach (especially the last game which was like getting simultaneously kicked in the groin, stabbed in the eyes, crowbarred to the knee and punched in the stomach) but the season series is still only 5 games to 7 and the Giants play all 6 remaining games at home.  I truly believe that with the way the Giants play at home the season series will end tied or in the Giants favor, which should be the true comparison of talent anyway.  In conclusion the season is NOT over yet!

Obligatory this is my first FanPost so feel free to rip apart all of my scientific analysis.  Thanks for reading and...

GO GIANTS!!!

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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I have added in some extra science when comparing the players

Yes, science……

Wisconsin: Famous for dairy, Ryan Rohlinger and not much else.

by Scottsdale on Aug 26, 2009 6:39 AM PDT reply actions  

Science!

Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).

by EliminateMe on Aug 26, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

YEAH!

Brian Sabean strongly encourages you to disregard the drudgery of your employment responsibilities and join him in the consumption of spirituous libations.

by satyricrash on Aug 26, 2009 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Not sure how to break the news, but Cook is the ace of the staff....

…and > Zito.

Plotting the ultimate demise of Gore51 (never met him, I dunno he could be swell) so as to adopt Kyle Nicholson.

by Whiteteaandpoptarts on Aug 26, 2009 6:53 AM PDT reply actions  

Zito and Cook

Let’s see.

Zito has a lower ERA, WHIP, and BAA. His FIP is also lower – Zito’s 4.25 to Cooks’ 4.64. Zito has more IP (9 more IP in one more GS), equal CG (I think Zitos was a CG loss IIRC), and more strikeouts. Zito’s K/9 is higher than Cooks, but so is his BB/9; and in the end Zito’s K/BB (1.9) is higher than Cook’s (1.63)

Unsurprisingly, Cooks GB% is much higher than Zitos. Zito’s BABIP is little under 300 and Cook’s a little higher, but Zito’s BAA is still almost .050 better than Cook’s. Zitos tRA is a full run better than Cook’s (5.01 to 6.10). Finally, Fangraphs calculates Zito’s WAR as .02 higher than Cook’s 1.8.

I think you can say that up to this point Zito has been better than Cook. You might be able to say they are “=”. If Cook is the ACE™, then our #3/#4 starter is >= to the Rockies #1, so it would seem the Giants Starting staff is much better than than the Rockies. I don’t think Cook is the ACE™. I think Jimenez is thier best pitcher, but due to seniority the unofficial ace is probably Marquis.

Even if VQ’s ranking of the Rockies pitchers is in the “wrong order”, I think his point still stands – Our two best pitchers are better than their two best, and Zito is actually pretty good. (At first I thought the Sanchez=DeLaRosa, might not work, but their stats seem pretty equal for the season after a quick perusal.)

co-dad of IshikaBOOM w/AfDC.
Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.

by kennv on Aug 26, 2009 8:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah in the staff comparison I was trying to line up the staffs with how I would guess the manager would line up the staff if the season started today. Clearly Jimenez has been the Rockies best pitcher this season but I would guess he would get the #2 role.

It might have been more appropriate to match up the pitchers by skill but that would have benefited the Giants so I decided not to.

by VizquelQuest on Aug 26, 2009 9:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

I would say that Ubaldo is the ace actually

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Aug 26, 2009 10:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

I explained the reasoning for matching up the pitchers just above this but if you go strictly by performance I would probably line it up like this which probably just makes my initial comparisons more accurate.

SP Lincecum >> Jimenez
SP Cain >> Marquis
SP Zito > Cook
SP Sanchez = De La Rosa
SP Martinez < Hammel

I just didn’t think this is how the pitchers would actually line up if the managers were setting up the rotation. Although looking at it again Bochy would probably split Timmy and Cain so I guess it is better to match by performance.

by VizquelQuest on Aug 26, 2009 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

I definitely think you are comparing the Pitchers wrong. Marquis, is not the ace of the staff

I R 5

by say hey nation on Aug 26, 2009 8:03 AM PDT reply actions  

I LOVE YOUR SCIENCE

But is Bengie really better than Ianetta? Rowand better than Fowler? Also, Helton, Tulo, and Hawpe are all so far above any non-Pandas on this team that the comparisons aren’t really fair.

Osiris, Lord of the Dead, and relief pitcher for the San Francisco Giants.
FREDEMPTION 2009

by neurofarm on Aug 26, 2009 8:28 AM PDT reply actions  

actually this year I believe Rowand is a lot better than Fowler due to his awful defense, Fowler is the worst defensive center fielder in baseball. In WAR its Rowand with 2.3 and Fowler with .6

Congrats to my soul mate and birth brother Zach Wheeler on being drafted into greatness. Should I just buy my Wheeler jersey now, or wait till my next birthday?

by TexasRanger on Aug 26, 2009 8:40 AM PDT up reply actions  

I didn’t realize Fowler was such an awful defender. So that makes sense, thanks.

Osiris, Lord of the Dead, and relief pitcher for the San Francisco Giants.
FREDEMPTION 2009

by neurofarm on Aug 26, 2009 9:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

Fowler is a good defensive CF

WAR on FG is based on UZR, which kills any Rockie CF due to the large space at Coors. Dexter is at least above average. He has a decent arm and plus-plus speed.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2009 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

You can’t use WAR once to prove an argument/make statement (below) and then say its invalid in another.

I would probably trade Fowler and Rowand straight up.

I R 5

by say hey nation on Aug 26, 2009 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

There is a very big difference

In one case, it was regarding outfielders, where UZR and defensive statistics that go into WAR are widely agreed upon to be unreliable.
In the other, it was regarding pitchers and FIP, which omit those unreliable defensive metrics altogether.

So yes, WAR for pitchers is far more reliable than for hitters.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2009 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

In one case, it was regarding outfielders, where UZR and defensive statistics that go into WAR are widely agreed upon to be unreliable

Could you please explain yourself here?

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Aug 26, 2009 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

UZR is park adjusted

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Aug 26, 2009 10:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

It is still very unstable of a metric, even though it is about the best there is

Look at the career UZR/150’s of Willy Taveras.
2005: 12.6
2006: 22.6
2007: -7.1
2008: -3.0
2009: 10.2

He went from very very good, to notably below average, then right back to very good again. He’s widely regarded as a great defensive OF (except the arm) even while in Colorado, but those two years with the Rockies look horrible. Do you buy that he suddenly dropped off in ability/performance then rebounded? Unlikely. They may be park adjusted, but that doesn’t mean the park adjustment is perfect.

In addition, UZR is subjected to a great amount of small sample size effects. Fowler isn’t a polished outfielder, and he’s misplayed a few balls, but he definitely has the range and makings for an elite defensive CF.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2009 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ah, different diction now:

Unstable does not equal unreliable. And yes, I’m aware of the sample size issue.

However, your reasons don’t entirely explain why Taveras may have been bad. Maybe Taveras’ positioning changed. Maybe the corner guys around him were worse. Maybe it took him some time to get used to the park and how the ball carried.

Also, your last statement doesn’t mean anything for this year. I actually think that Fowler is at least average right now and will be plus for a few years to come, but saying what someone COULD be isn’t helping your argument.

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Aug 26, 2009 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

My bad...the last statement was intended as an aside, not an argument for this year

To me, instability leads to unreliability. If a stat is unstable, how then can you put all faith in what it says?

It’s true that Taveras’ trend does not tell the whole story. But that’s a rather large change, don’t you think? In watching him, he had no problems with positioning and looked to be the best defensive CF than the Rockies had in a good while. I also forgot to mention that a different defensive metric (FRAA), lists Fowler as above average. Quite the contradiction.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2009 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think most people put "all faith" in UZR

And I always try to accompany it with what people’s eyes say. That said, I’m just going to link to MGL for an explanation about why you’re wrong about UZR.

Another thing: the year-to-year baseline of UZR is different because it compares each position to league average.

Also, is there a reason why you’re using FRAA aside from confirmation bias?

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Aug 26, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

I just cited FRAA to show the wide range of results for defensive metrics for Dexter

and because Sky Kalkman did. A quote from that link you gave me:

That metric MUST BE WRONG for a certain percentage of players over any finite period of time!

This is more of the argument I’m trying to make. UZR can totally whiff on certain players with the help of sample size. Due to the eye test and other metrics, I think it has on Dex.

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

eh, FRAA is usually off in the gamma quadrant while PMR , UZR and +/- are all pretty close to each other.

I will grant that UZR seems to get pretty weird inside Coors. Brad Hawpe racked up like -4 wins defensively last year.

Please hit better, Randy Winn.

by oldjacket on Aug 26, 2009 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

FRAA is useless.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Aug 26, 2009 11:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

that's not colorado... they are all like that

What about this streak:
2002 -8.2
2003 0.9
2004 24.4
2005 -3
2006 -5
2007 27.5
2008 -2.4
2009 2.8
.
.
.

That Aaron Rowands’s value. In Runs. Except it’s just his BATTING runs. 30 run swings, year to year.
That’s baseball.

Fowler’s UZR has been bad this year… however, it’s is only year. So it’s still possible that he’s an average CF. It is also possible that UZR has a bias against Coors CFs that is not corrected in the park effect; something to do with more balls of greater difficulty being hit there (balls fly faster at altitude) – although Spilboughs managed a 100 or so above average innings there in 2007

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Aug 26, 2009 2:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hes really good every three years

2010 World Champion Giants!

#1 threat to America: Pandas
Also, Tim Lincecum

Adopted Father: Tyler Graham

by GrahamCrakalaka on Aug 26, 2009 4:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, that’s nuts. Fowler’s a fine outfielder.

by Evan on Aug 26, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

Well Helton, Tulo and Hawpe all got the “double greater than” rankings so I think I gave them the respect they deserve. In contrast Sandoval is dominating Stewart by a similar measure.

In regards to Bengie beating out Ianetta I guess it is probably pretty close. Bengie is hitting 40 points higher but has an OBP that’s about 40 points lower. Their slugging is the same and HRs are equal. Ianetta’s numbers geta boost being in COL though. Defensively I don’t know much about Ianetta but I would still say Bengie is above average. Bengie is also asked to be a team leader and has a lot more pressure put on him. After a second look it is probably more of an equal but if I had to lean one way I would pick Bengie.

by VizquelQuest on Aug 26, 2009 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

My point was that the difference between Cain and Jimenez certainly isn’t anywhere near the equivalent of the difference between Renteria and Tulo. It should probably be Cain > Jimenez and Renteria <<< Tulowitzki.

I think Ianetta is a good defensive catcher, though someone else here would probably know better than I. I’d take him over Bengie because his skills seem comparable but he can draw a walk every now and then. And isn’t a comically bad baserunner. I also don’t put much stock in the whole “team leadership” thing. You may be right that Coors field inflates his numbers though, I’m always a bit suspicious of Colorado hitters.

Osiris, Lord of the Dead, and relief pitcher for the San Francisco Giants.
FREDEMPTION 2009

by neurofarm on Aug 26, 2009 9:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

It should probably be Jimenez>Cain actually.

Jimenez WAR: 4.9
Cain WAR: 3.0

"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein

by Andrew T. Fisher on Aug 26, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

I dont think Cain is far superior to Jimenez at all, if you go by FIP Cain is at 3.90 and Ubaldo 3.27, Ubaldo might be the better pitcher but they are pretty even

Congrats to my soul mate and birth brother Zach Wheeler on being drafted into greatness. Should I just buy my Wheeler jersey now, or wait till my next birthday?

by TexasRanger on Aug 26, 2009 8:43 AM PDT reply actions  

Yes but Cain knows how to win now which is a much more important STAT than FIP.

Joking aside, after looking at their numbers closer and taking into account that Jimenez pitches at Coors it would definitely not be accurate to say Cain is the much better pitcher. The only STAT that Cain is dominating in is ERA and I realize that is not the best way to judge a pitcher.

by VizquelQuest on Aug 26, 2009 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

BUT CAIN ONLY KNOWS HOW TO WIN TWELVE GAMES

Osiris, Lord of the Dead, and relief pitcher for the San Francisco Giants.
FREDEMPTION 2009

by neurofarm on Aug 26, 2009 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

He's young

He’ll learn how to win more in the off-season.

by FireBrianSabean on Aug 26, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

The problem with this kind of analysis is that what matters is who is better now, not over the course of the season’s statistics. To start with, Cook and Sanchez are out, Sandoval is somewhat hurt and so on…

by NearestNorwich on Aug 26, 2009 9:01 AM PDT reply actions  

But I think the Post is more a response to the MEDIA and talking heads from over the weekend, that declared the Rockies not only better than the Giants (right now since one team won the series and the other lost), but that the Rockies were a much better team top to bottom compared with the Giants (and the Dodgers and the rest of the NL and so on). I only watched a little MLB network, but most of it was “OMG How good are the Rockies? They are gonna catch the uncatchable Dodgers. And dominate in the years to come.” This isn’t so much a post about “LOL Colorado sucks” as one to roughly sketch out how talent levels. To quote the o.p.:

I don’t think this is a perfect way to analyze things but I think it is one way to put into perspective that the talent level between the two teams is remarkably close.

co-dad of IshikaBOOM w/AfDC.
Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.

by kennv on Aug 26, 2009 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

That was my point. After reading through the comments I have realized I was a little homerish on some of the comparisons but the talent difference isn’t as large as it was being made to be by the media and some fans. With the short amount of season left anything can still happen.

And going forward I don’t see the Rockies having 2 players of Posey and Bumgarner’s caliber coming in to further strengthen the team, which should level things out even more.

by VizquelQuest on Aug 26, 2009 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

That's cute

He put Winn and Velez on the bench

by dogdays on Aug 26, 2009 10:06 AM PDT reply actions  

The Rockies are really a better team overall than the Giants

Both in terms of true talent and with year-to-date performance.

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Aug 26, 2009 10:46 AM PDT reply actions  

Well my conclusion was that they are more talented and have a better balance between offense and pitching. My argument though is that they are not “top to bottom” a better team. I would certainly not trade rotations with them. Their bullpen is better but not by a huge margin. Clearly they are much better on offense and defense is probably pretty close. “Top to bottom” implies that there is very little if anywhere that we could even compete and I don’t think the comparisons, overall performance or team records display that.

by VizquelQuest on Aug 26, 2009 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

If you want to take into account managers the gap is probably more skewed in their favor though.

by VizquelQuest on Aug 26, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ummmmmm no, Jim Tracy is an awful manager, I watched him screw up LA with delight down here, he really is worse than Bochy who I am starting to believe is not terrible

Congrats to my soul mate and birth brother Zach Wheeler on being drafted into greatness. Should I just buy my Wheeler jersey now, or wait till my next birthday?

by TexasRanger on Aug 27, 2009 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

I will agree with that but that isn’t really the point of my analysis. If you took Bonds off the 2002 team it would not have made the playoffs. If you take Pujols off the Cards they are probably not even in the WC race right now. We are lucky to have one of the most valuable players in the game and he is part of the comparison.

by VizquelQuest on Aug 26, 2009 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

You said this:

My argument though is that they are not "top to bottom" a better team

And I said this:

I would say that aside from our best player, the Rockies are better top to bottom

And then you said this:

I will agree with that but that isn’t really the point of my analysis

So I’m not sure what you’re trying to get at.

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Aug 26, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

To me “top to bottom” implies they have a better offense, defense, rotation and bullpen. I have said in my original post and numerous other times the Rockies have a superior offense and bullpen but that our rotation is better and defense is about equal. If you take out 20% of the Giants rotation and replace it with Pucetas I think it moves the rotation comparison in the Rockies favor.

The Rockies strength is balance the Giants’ biggest strength is the rotation and particularly the top of rotation. This is a massive asset as you can see from teams like the DBacks of Schilling/Johnson and Braves of the 90’s. If you take RJ off those DBacks teams how would they have stacked up against the competition? My point is that you can’t remove Lincecum and then compare because the Rockies don’t have a player that is even remotely as valuable as Lincecum.

by VizquelQuest on Aug 26, 2009 11:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Oh ok

To me “top to bottom” implies from player 1 to player 25 (or in your case, player 22).

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

McFAQ for all you newcomers out there.

GET THAT VORP AND WHIP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Aug 26, 2009 11:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah there are probably a million ways to compare the teams and I realize that the “methodology” here is shaky at best but I think there is some merit to comparing teams player by player.

After reading comments and defending what I could I would revise my comparisons some but I think the overall conclusion would stay the same. Each team has 3 very superior players and about 5 players of essentially equal value. The Rockies probably lead the superior player category 7 to 4 though.

by VizquelQuest on Aug 26, 2009 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

The Rockies are a much better team than the Giants. Sorry.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Aug 26, 2009 10:55 AM PDT reply actions  

A much better team would beat the other team soundly an on their own strengths. The Giants gifted the Rockies runners and runs, and yet the run differential for the series is 23-27. (Earned only 21-23, smaller without BB-RBIs). The series (and the season really) has been so gut wrenching because the Giants are so close to being a truly good team, and every missed opportunity is like another knife in the gut.

co-dad of IshikaBOOM w/AfDC.
Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.

by kennv on Aug 26, 2009 11:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Of course in that one series, it seemed pretty damn close, which is frustrating, but if you stand back and look at it, they just really seem like a better overall team to me. Their pitching isn’t as good, but it’s still solidly above average and their offense is worlds ahead of ours.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Aug 26, 2009 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sadly, this murderer's row is behind them

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=sfo&season=2009&seasonType=2&split=34&cat=atBats&order=true&type=reg

You can’t just ignore home stats. You use park-adjusted stats to measure a team’s true talent level. And the Rockies are pretty good.

GROUGTHINK ALERT
The first Chester Arthur fanboy ever.

by groug on Aug 26, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

And park-adjusted stats still overvalue their actual talent level.

by kingofthacove on Aug 26, 2009 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

I looked it up anyway

Rockies
OPS+ 100
ERA+ 107

Giants
OPS+ 82
ERA+ 123

The disparity between our pitching and their’s is just as big as their hitting and our’s, so how exactly are they way more talented than us?

by kingofthacove on Aug 26, 2009 1:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

Thank you KOTC for illustrating my assertion with less subjectivity.

by VizquelQuest on Aug 26, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

average OPS among these hitters:

molina
uribe
renteria
sandoval
winn
rowand
schierholtz
= .735

(exclude Garko and Sanchez due to sample size)

ianetta
helton
barmes
tulo
stewart
fowler
spilborghs
smith
= .750

their offense really isn’t that much better, and not nearly enough better to make a ridiculous statement such as “The Rockies are a much better team than the Giants. Sorry.” like it’s not even close, let alone deserving comparison.

by kingofthacove on Aug 26, 2009 1:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Those games they play at home count too, you know.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Aug 26, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

When there’s a significant disparity in every single hitter AND their homepark is notorious for being hitter-friendly, it’s kind a redflag, you know.

by kingofthacove on Aug 26, 2009 12:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes, but the point is that they get to play half their games at home and benefit from their increased hitting at home. We’re not talking about which team is better in a vacuum – we’re talking about which team is better in the situation they both find themselves in.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Aug 26, 2009 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

This doesn’t even make sense. How is this at all relevant? Are you saying we shouldn’t consider stat normalization?

Still can’t find an argument on how the Rockies are a much better team sorry.

by kingofthacove on Aug 26, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

I’m not really sure what’s going on in this conversation anymore, so I dunno.

That said, if you’re going to say the Rockies offense isn’t impressive due to their H/R splits, you should take a look at the Giants’:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=sfo&season=2009&seasonType=2&split=34&cat=avg&order=true&type=reg

(compared to: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/batting?team=sfo&season=2009&seasonType=2&split=33&cat=avg&order=true&type=reg)

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Aug 26, 2009 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

The Rockies go from an .851 OPS at home to a .731 OPS on the road. The Giants have a decent-sized difference as well but not that big, and I doubt it can be attributed to the park as it’s not notorious as a ridiculously hitter-friendly park every single year like Coors is.

Either way, even if the Rockies’ offense is significantly better than the Giants’, the difference between pitching is pretty much just as big.

by kingofthacove on Aug 26, 2009 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

AT&T Park has played as a hitter’s park the last few years though. And Coors Field does not have the same dramatic park factor that it once did.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Aug 26, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

please stop using red herrings

coors is still by far the most hitter-friendly park in the league

by kingofthacove on Aug 26, 2009 5:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

If you go by park factors, Fenway is pretty damn close, actually.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Aug 26, 2009 5:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Baseball-Reference

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Aug 26, 2009 7:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

And

Taking H/R splits and using the road splits as the “true talent level” is NOT stat normalization.

Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.

by jponry on Aug 26, 2009 3:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

I didn’t say it was. That’s all I got out what you were saying in that post though.

by kingofthacove on Aug 26, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

Giants runs per game season 4.04
Giants runs per game at Coors 4.33

I think it would be safe to assume SSS aside that Giants hitters would prefer to hit at Coors more often just as Rockies hitters clearly do.

by VizquelQuest on Aug 26, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Giants HRs per game season 0.70
Giants HRs per game at Coors 1.11

by VizquelQuest on Aug 26, 2009 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

What about Defense though?

Their offensive is obviously much better than ours and our pitching is better than theirs (not to the same degree) but you’ve got to include defense as well. By UZR our team defense has been a huge amount better than theirs (7 WAR which is approaching the difference in offense) and that’s a big bonus in our favour. It’s obviously prone to SSS although we were substantially superior to them last year as well & when you’re considering the whole team itt’s less of an issue.

Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!

by GiantFan on Aug 27, 2009 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

YES! kennv, this is exactly where I am at.
 
I don’t think either team is a world beater. I was expecting the Giants to narrowly miss the playoffs and have been pulling my hair out all season hoping that they are a little ahead of schedule.

I look at the Rockies pitching and just don’t get it. I mean Marquis is an All Star with a mid 3 ERA and 14 wins? Josh Fogg has a 2 ERA in the bullpen? I am not sold that they are this good and definitely think the talent gap is not that large.

by VizquelQuest on Aug 26, 2009 11:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

I was going to write "Its science"

But that has been covered

Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)

by CB30 on Aug 26, 2009 11:02 AM PDT reply actions  

“Good heavens Miss Yakimoto, you’re BEAUTIFUL!”

"We're in this thing!" My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman, "Sweet Jesus" Guzman and Jesus H. Guzman.

by Goofus on Aug 26, 2009 1:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

Lou Seal>Dinger
Mays Field>Coors
Humidor Shenanigans>Fair and Level Playing Field

by out machine on Aug 26, 2009 11:38 AM PDT reply actions  

woohoo! SF Giants win the moral high ground! Not the games though. :(

co-dad of IshikaBOOM w/AfDC.
Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.

by kennv on Aug 26, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Lou Seal = Dinger. They’re both shitty.

If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding.

by SFGuy on Aug 27, 2009 12:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

Lou Seal is a less blatantly bush league kind of shitty. Still, I hate me some Lou Seal.

Utter frustration and futility.

by Johnny Disaster on Aug 27, 2009 11:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

Even if Rockies are better

The Giants will prevail through luck and shenanigans like we always do!!!!

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Aug 26, 2009 2:26 PM PDT reply actions  

YAY!

co-dad of IshikaBOOM w/AfDC.
Ishikawa, let the boy hit against lefties.

by kennv on Aug 26, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

The Rockies don't suck on the road. The Giants do. Thats why they are a better team

Nevermind the player-to-player comparisons and make all the arguments you want about home field advantage and all that, but both teams have played the same number of home/away games. The Giants are 20 games over .500 at home. The Rockies are 12 over at home. The Giants are -10 on the road. The Rockies are +6.

As proven last series, the biggest reason unfortunately is the Giants bullpen. Call it bad luck, bad managing, or credit the Rockies bullpen, but they have finished the games on the road when they were in a position to win. The Bums are having the saving issue with their pen that we are, thats why the Rockies are right on their asses now when they thought they had won the division in June

by m34josh on Aug 26, 2009 3:18 PM PDT reply actions  

actually

I’m pretty sure it’s that The Giants are hitting
.270/.327/.414 at home (OPS+ 92)
and
.256/.292/.371 on the road (OPS+ 82)

They are also pitching better at home, ERA of 3.08, WHIP of 1.176, SO/BB of 2.77 vs ERA of 3.92, WHIP of 1.376, SO/BB 1.8 on the road.

I don’t have the break down of starters vs. relievers on the road vs home…

But I suspect it’s all just a random split with the usual home field advantage (most teams play a little better at home)

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Aug 26, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

9 blown saves on the road for the Gs. 4 for the Rox. Like I said, could be bad luck, etc. but even if the Giants could get up to .500 on the road, we are talking about fighting for the best record in the NL, not the Wild Card

by m34josh on Aug 26, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

how many of those blown saves

were 1 run leads?

FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.

by zenbitz on Aug 26, 2009 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

You mean for the Giants I assume? I am too lazy to look it up to count for sure but off the top of my head I can think of 5 games between Wilson and Howry that were more than 1 run leads, plus the Merkin the other night. So I am going to guess somewhere between 1-3 of them were one run games

by m34josh on Aug 26, 2009 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

Matt Cain is not much, much better than Ubaldo Jimenez, infact Jimenez might soon be better than Cain. Zito isn’t really better than Aaron Cook. At all. Ishikawa is not the Giants counterpart to Torrealba. Jeremy Affeldt is most certainly not better than Rafael Betancourt. Winn is not a bench player. Matt Daley isn’t better than Justin Miller, but that’s more debatable than any of the others.

The very bad man traded my son...So now I'd like you all to meet my new son, Ryan "Aaron" Garko...Dammit it's just not the same!

by boonitez on Aug 26, 2009 6:02 PM PDT reply actions  

Jimenez

In all objectivity, to say that either Cain or Lincecum is >> than Jimenez is false. The guy throws 99 with nasty sink and has a good breaking ball as well. His only drawback in the past was that he couldn’t find the plate a la Sanchez and would make mistakes that would hurt him.

Take a look at his numbers though from the past month:
5 Starts, 38 2/3 IP (8 IP 4 times), 7 ER, 25 Hits, 12 BB, 34 K and he’s 5-0

Lincecum:
5 Starts, 36 2/3 IP, 12 ER, 26 Hits, 11 BB, 31 K (1-1 record)

Cain:
5 Starts, 37 1/3 IP, 14 ER, 33 Hits, 7 BB, 21 K (0-2 record)

Jimenez actually has better numbers than both our studs, and he outdueled Timmy this past week. To say that our guys are MUCH MUCH better is completely overstated. I’d still rather have our guys, but the Rockies are solid top to bottom with their own stud in Jimenez.

by joebirdie3 on Aug 26, 2009 10:21 PM PDT reply actions  

Jimenez is good, but he’s closer to Cain than Lincecum in talent level. And please don’t compare pitchers over 5 starts, then claim one is better than another.

Please hit better, Randy Winn.

by oldjacket on Aug 27, 2009 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

MOG!!!!!!!!!! He is 5 and 0 nad Cain is 0 and 2 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! CAIN SUCKS

I R 5

by say hey nation on Aug 27, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

Other than half of your arrows being wrong, nice science.

Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.

@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.

by marcello on Aug 28, 2009 6:17 PM PDT reply actions  

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