This includes Winn, Molina, Johnson, Lowry, Howry, Aurilia and Uribe. I could see Uribe and Howry being resigned though. Does anyone know the players who will get Arbitration raises besides Lincecum?

Yup , that Brian Sabean. He’s a rock solid GM alright. No need for replacing him; he’s top notch.

Oh, and funny Freudian typo (Spoonerism?) on Rent’s first name. When is Wilson arb-eligible?

Bochy’s and Sabean’s contracts off the books!!

by my quick and dirty number crunching, I figure that the team is obligated in 2010 for about $60.9M* assuming they pick up Sanchez’s option (which as you said, Sabes indicated he would) plus a raise in the minimum salary to $410k (for 8 guys), but not including other nominal raises to guys making a bit more than the minimum in 2009 (e.g. assume Fred Lewis will make $440k in 2010 as he did in 2009).

Assuming the team wants to have an approximately $90M payroll, that leaves about $28.1M for free agents and arbitration raises. Using Rainman’s numbers from above (for simplicity’s sake, I won’t vouch for his prognosticating ability) for Lincecum, Sanchez, Wilson and Garko = $16.5M – though I personally think Tim will get $10 especially if he wins another CY) then the team will have about $12.5M for 2010 free agents. That’s not a lot.

I assume the team will try to purchase as many arb years as possible from these guys, resulting in further budget room for 2010, but add payroll down the line in future years.

Again, those big Rowand and Zito contracts really limit the payroll flexibility of this team.

*I’m relying on Cots for a lot of this, but he uses 2 different sets of numbers for Rowand’s contract. I’m going with the even $12m/year set rather than the spreadsheet that escalates in 2010 to $13.6M thru the end of the deal.

and yes, it is horrible that 4 non-impact players will suck up slightly more than half of the teams entire payroll in 2010. Whoever is responsible for squiring them should probably face some sort of repercussions.

I would not be surprised if the Giants try to rip up the option and sign F.Sanchez to a multiyear deal with less money upfront, ie, 2 yrs/$12 M, or 3 yrs/$20 M. I would not be surprised, and I would not be happy, either.

I wonder if the Giants will go after a big time hitter like Holliday or Bay, if its a lower rung power hitter like Dye I would be very upset!

here are contracts that a couple of relatively comparable closers got in their first arbitration year.

Huston Street: $3.3 million in 2008

Brian Fuentes: $2 million in 2006

Jonathan Papelbon: $6.25 million in 2009 which was the largest contract ever for a first time arbitration eligible closer

Jose Valverde: $2 million in 2007

Jonathan Broxton: $1.8 million plus incentives in 2009

Bobby Jenks: $5.6 million in 2009, which was a record for a first time arb eligible closer until Papelbon signed

none of these are perfect comparisons obviously, but it seems to me like he should fall in somewhere between Valverde and Huston Street

The good news is they should be able to package young pitchers like Alderson or Scott Barnes to acquire a young power hitter.

Oh.

Jason Bay scares me. His bat is good, not great, for a corner outfielder. Any slippage with the bat and he becomes a total albatross because he’s one of the worst outfielders in baseball.

3/30? Sure.

5/70? No.