I want Brian Sabean to be fired. Tonight.
by tobias on Aug 20, 2009 3:26 PM PDT
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PrintI know this sounds extreme. But when I look at the Giants' problems and deficiencies--and they are legion--I keep seeing Brian Sabean as the one who ultimately is responsible for the things that are wrong with the Giants, and the one who is keeping them from getting where we all want them to be. Today's game simply provided several more examples.
This season, on balance, qualifies as a pleasant surprise. But (for me at least) it’s not just that today’s loss was particularly disappointing. It’s what losses like today’s keep saying, over and over, about this team and its management—that we’re pretty good, but because of our glaring, ridiculously deficient areas of weakness—from the fail offense, to the lack of power hitting, to the relentlessly bork-headed manager, to the first-pitch hacking (and the coaches who only advocate same) to the ever-sloppy execution, station-to-station hitting and base-running, and poor fundamentals (from a team that supposedly was going to EXCEL in those things), to the head-scratching trades and free agent signings—that we will NEVER be good enough. Games like today’s just leave me with a cold, solid-as-granite sense of certainty that the Giants will never win a World Series with the current cast of characters running things.
The Giants have two top-notch, dominant pitchers. Any team would kill to have just one pitcher with the talent of either Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain. The bullpen is competent-to-very good. With ANY kind of offense in place, this team could win not just one, but MULTIPLE World Series over the next few years. But my fear is that, sooner than we think, we’ll see that window rapidly close. Brian Sabean will keep making foolish trades and signings. Lincecum and/or Cain will tire of waiting for the Giants to provide some real help in the lineup—or even just a cleanup hitter—and when free agency approaches, they’ll be open to going elsewhere. When that time comes, Sabean will not be willing to pay the kind of big bucks necessary to keep pitchers like Cain and Lincecum on the roster for years to come. He will over-confidently and arrogantly believe that he can simply keep drafting and developing pitchers who are every bit as good as Lincecum and Cain. He’ll let one or both of them walk, or he’ll trade them for bats that are past their prime, and who never were that good in the first place.
Since 2003, being a Giants fan for me has been like being on a long journey to a destination that is so far away…well, it almost seems mythical. The destination is so distant—so unreachable, really—and the vehicle we are in seems so ill-suited to get us anywhere near where we’d like to go, that we quit worrying so much about reaching that destination, and we try to just enjoy what parts of the ride we are able to enjoy. Then suddenly, unexpectedly, we round a bend, lurch over a rise in the road, and…we SEE it! We can actually see that destination. It does exist! And…it seems so close. "We can get there!", we cry! "We can do this!".
But then, as we pick up our pace and attempt to breach those last few miles between our vehicle and that promised land, the vehicle abruptly coughs and sputters, veers badly off course, and finally grinds to a halt. It’s only then that we realize that the vehicle that we had imagined was a powerful vehicle—strong and hardy, yet nimble and quick, and designed to get us over difficult miles and tough terrain—well, that vehicle isn’t a powerful Humvee or Range Rover. It’s not a Ford Ranger, a Pathfinder, or a Jeep. In fact, it isn’t even a car, really. It’s actually…well, it’s a bunch of 2X4’s nailed together with wheels that were last used as training wheels on your sister’s bicycle. The guy that built the car keeps kicking the tires and saying things like, "I could’ve gotten that shiny, expensive car you all wanted; but then I couldn’t have afforded all these nice new bottle caps we just added to the rear bumper." The driver…he’s actually not even human. He’s just a big friendly dog with an enormous head, who slobbers all over everything while steering the car left when he hears a bell, and right when he hears a whistle.
It’s now that you realize the horrible truth; that, as close as you may be to that destination you’ve so longed to reach, and as happy as you are to be this near it, you have absolutely no chance of traveling those last few miles of road between where you are now, and where you want to be.
…That is what is bothering me right now.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Did you really need to write anything after the title?
Ok, I will read your reasoned arguments later and still agree.
Young Studs for Old Bats: The Brian Sabean Story
FREE KEVIN FRANDSEN!!! Member of the Frandsen 5% Club.
by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Aug 20, 2009 3:33 PM PDT reply actions
Im not fond of Sabean or Bochy at the moment either
Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)
But Bochy has such a small impact on the teams success compared to Sabean…
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 5:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Did you really need to write anything after the title?
If only for my own sanity, yes.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
I too love the vehicle/destination metaphor
Since 2003, being a Giants fan for me has been like being on a long journey to a destination that is so far away…well, it almost seems mythical.
I would say, however, that this journey began in 1958…
I have wanted him fired since the worst offseason in all of baseball history (2006-07)
When he signed Zito, Feliz, Aurilia, Klesko, Dave Roberts and Durham (he fell for the banana in the tailpipe trick).
If Sabean’s not responsible for the Zito signing, then he deserves to be axed anyway for losing control over his job, which is to biuld the best possible roster given the available resources.
I like what Joe Posnanski had to say in response to folks who hold Ricciardi blameless for Wells’ contract, and it very definitely applies to Sabean in the Zito affair:
But here’s the larger point, and the reason that I find much of this stuff unconvincing: If you are a baseball general manager, you have to deal with quirks and vagaries of ownership and the direction other power brokers want to take the team. That’s not part of the job. That IS the job. It’s not like trading baseball cards. Owners (and presidents and scouts and the field manager and everyone else) want certain things, and they insist upon certain things, and they refuse certain things. Usually, owners want to spend LESS money, not MORE money — which is part of the reason I find the "They wanted to re-sign Wells at any price and over the objections of Ricciardi" line strained — but the point remains the same. No general manager – NO general manager — lives in a vacuum.
So how you deal with the often strange and contradictory decisions and leanings of ownership defines your tenure as a GM. I happen to know that Allard Baird had to deal with all sorts of lunacy and insanity when he was GM of the Royals — stuff that would make your head spin. But at the end of the day — and Allard would agree with this 100 percent — it was his job to overcome those things. And he could not. And he was let go.
Do I believe that Ricciardi went into a meeting with Blue Jays ownership, pounded his shoe on the table and shouted "This Wells deal is lunacy. It will break the organization. Wells will deteriorate as a player in three years and we will be stuck holding the bag on this." No. I do not.
But even if he did do that and was simply told to shut up and make the deal anyway, I would argue that (1) he was extremely ineffective in getting his point across and (2) he got his team a lousy deal — a backloaded deal that at the time was the sixth most expensive contact in baseball history and now, a couple of years later, is absolutely devastating. He apparently took a chance that the Blue Jays would do some winning early in the contract, when Wells’ contract didn’t pay as much. The Jays didn’t make the playoffs. And now, the mortgage is due.
That’s brilliant. Posnanski is awesome.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 22, 2009 2:04 PM PDT up reply actions
I agree, this is spot-on. I’ve wavered back and forth on Sabean’s culpability for the Zito deal. My general thinking is that, since owners aren’t generally held directly accountable for the failures of a ballclub—both general failures as well as specific ones—that it just makes more sense to hold the GM accountable. And really, the whole premise of the GM position is that he is the one who is actually running the ballclub—the entire baseball operation, really. If he’s effective in the role, he can’t allow important decisions to be made outside his purview without at the very least weighing in and being a part of the process.
The reason I’ve wavered on Sabean having culpability in the Zito signing is that Magowan evidently ended up being held accountable for it. It does appear that Magowan, hoping to repeat one of his crowning successes as Managing General Partner of the Giants, when he engineered the signing of Barry Bonds, and hoping for a similar master stroke at a crucial moment, played his MGP trump card once more, and became the driving force behind the Zito signing. And, it appears that the Zito signing, at least in part, became a factor in Magowan’s “retirement” from the MGP role.
So, I’ve backed off from my earlier position that Sabean bore culpability for the Zito signing, regardless of Magowan’s involvement. But Posnanski makes such a strong case…well, I’m re-rethinking my position on this, and pretty much coming back close to where I was originally.
Some key mitigating factors in the Zito affair are:
- What did Sabean actually think, just from a pitching performance standpoint, about bringing Zito in? A careful look at Zito’s stats (particularly WHIP) over the previous five seasons, gave many baseball observers concern about a decline in Zito’s effectiveness from his Cy Young Award year of 2002. Did Sabean see this? Given Sabean’s long-running proclivity for valuing players based on their best (often outlier) seasons (Matt Morris, Edgardo Alfonzo, Neifi Perez, Armando Benitez, Edgar Renteria…), it doesn’t seem unreasonable to speculate that Sabean probably viewed Zito more as the dominant pitcher from 2002-03, than the declining pitcher from 2004-06. I’m guessing he probably liked the idea of adding Zito to the rotation.
- What did Sabean actually think, from a financial standpoint, about bringing Zito in? If Sabean had budget constraints set for each year’s Giants’ payroll, then he had to see that Zito’s salary was going to have great impact on what he would be able to do each year, when putting a team together in the winter, and when making mid-year trades each season. Here’s where I wonder if perhaps Magowan basically took Zito’s salary off the board, assuring Sabean that for purposes of Sabean’s yearly payroll budget, Zito’s salary would not be a part of that. I’m imagining Magowan saying to Sabean something to the effect of, "We (the owners) need a new “Face of the Franchise”. We think Barry Zito will help give the Giants franchise cachet and marquee value over the life of his contract. He’ll help us move out of the Bonds era with media and fans. We think he’ll return every dollar we spend on him."
- What exactly did Sabean say or recommend to Magowan and the owners about Zito’s signing? Here’s where Posnanski’s points are so important. If Sabean had reservations about Zito, the pitcher, or about Zito, the payroll drain, he had an obligation to represent that point of view, and to attempt to persuade ownership to his way of thinking. Maybe Sabean had nothing to say because he was in full agreement with what was taking place. Maybe he didn’t agree but didn’t want to make waves. Or maybe he had reservations, attempted to express them, was unpersuasive, and the Zito signing went forward over Sabean’s objections. I don’t know if we’ll ever know exactly what happened, but Posnanski is right. Sabean cannot completely wash his hands of the Barry Zito signing. He has to bear a large portion of responsibility.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
“I’m imagining Magowan saying to Sabean something to the effect of, “We (the owners) need a new "Face of the Franchise". We think Barry Zito will help give the Giants franchise cachet and marquee value over the life of his contract. He’ll help us move out of the Bonds era with media and fans. We think he’ll return every dollar we spend on him.”"
This is another problem I have with Sabean. There’s no evidence players have any impact on attendance that I’ve seen, instead, I’ve seen evidence to the contrary (though obviously someone like Bonds trying to break a HR record will be an exception). Basically, winning brings fans. I feel like this is something the GM should know, and should make sure the ownership knows before they make a stupid investment. The bottom line is the case against signing Zito was strong and a competent GM should have seen it and made a case against the Zito signing so strong the owners would have no choice but come to the same conclusion: that it’s a mistake.
by Missing Barry on Aug 23, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions
And when you ask yourself the question “Is signing a Barry Zito-type player the kind of thing that Brian Sabean would do, and in fact has done?,” you are left with only one answer. That is precisely the kind of guy Sabean likes to sign.
To imagine that Sabean argued against the Zito signing with the General Partners is nearly unimaginable.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
I’m pretty late to replying here, but a couple things I wanted to point out…
First off, I have to think that “Magowan was forced out because of the Zito contract” is a pretty stupid line of thinking. What evidence is there of that? When you consider the timing of the Bonds steroid stuff, and MLB re-investigating the Giants and Bonds, with an eye on Magowan in particular, (am I recalling this correctly?), Magowan’s departure still seems more in line with those events than a stupidly bad contract. If anything I suspect it’s the fans who are still screaming the most about that Zito contract, more than the other owners were.
Secondly, the Zito signing remains to me a simple mystery to solve. The Giants wanted to make a splash in free agency, and whiffed on the two biggest hitters available at the time. One marquee name remained, and Magowan said, “We need to make our splash, Brian. Target Zito, and let’s do what it takes to get him here.” Instead of protesting that it would be a bad deal, or even convincing Magowan as negotiations progressed that a seven year contract for a pitcher of Zito’s magnitude is a colossally stupid idea, Sabean either towed the line or actually felt that it was a good deal. Either way, he was wrong. I really don’t think, though, that this whole thing was any more diabolical than that.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
I don't think I'm stupid...
Hey JR…so if you disagree with something I write, why not say something like, “I don’t agree with your line of thinking”, or “your line of thinking doesn’t make sense to me”?
Instead, you misrepresent what I’m saying, which is not: “Magowan was forced out because of the Zito contract”. You’re making it sound like I think the Zito contract was the sole reason for Magowan stepping down, and I simply don’t think that. So, you’re wrong to summarize my quote that way. And I don’t think it’s necessary or helpful to say that I’m stupid (or that my line of thinking is stupid, which to me feels about the same).
What I actually said was, “…it appears that the Zito signing, at least in part, became a factor in Magowan’s "retirement" from the MGP role.” I’ve read that it was a factor. I don’t have links to articles handy, but I have read more than one account indicating this. I don’t think the Zito signing was a huge factor, but I don’t think it’s at all implausible that it was a factor. I think you make good points about what perhaps were larger factors in Magowan stepping down. I mainly was trying to make the point, based on what I’ve read in the past, that Magowan, more than Sabean, has had to be the one having to answer for the Zito signing, and that perhaps it was a factor in his stepping aside.
I think it’s fair to disagree that the Zito signing had anything to do with Magowan’s departure. I can see your point—I probably agree with just about everything you are saying here—especially the conclusions regarding Sabean. I just don’t think it’s necessary to sink to name-calling and insults to make your point.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
dude...
I absolutely didn’t mean to imply you are stupid. I think you’ve made great points on here, and almost everything you’ve said has been spot on. So I apologize wholeheartedly for making you think I was calling you stupid, that was completely unintentional.
What I’m saying is that it’s been said many times that the Zito signing was something that probably played a part in forcing Magowan out, but I really don’t think that was the case. My suspicion remains that it was as innocent as him not wanting to be involved any longer in the Bonds stuff, and having MLB scrutinize him further, or try to drag him through the mud looking for connections between him and the Bonds Grand Jury testimony. So while I think the “Zito’s contract is what forced Magowan out” line of thinking is a very flawed premise, I certainly didn’t mean for you to think that I was saying you referencing it was stupid. It’s just a topic that gets me riled up, to the point where I become a total ass. But I really had no intention of calling you stupid, when I think you’re kind of the opposite.
And regarding Sabean’s part in the signing of Zito, I still believe his feet need to be held to the fire for that one, whether it’s because he signed Zito to a bad contract or because he didn’t build a good enough case to talk management out of the notion of signing Zito to a 7 year, $126mil contract.
Again, I’m terribly sorry.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
No worries...
I’m not bent out of shape or anything. I just thought I should say something about the earlier comment. Thanks for what you said here; I appreciate it.
I guess neither of us really know what exactly were the factors involved in Magowan’s stepping down from the MGP role. I think you’re right in pointing out other issues that were in play and to say that they are larger issues than the Zito contract. Actually, that whole discussion isn’t really even germane to the larger topic of Sabean’s role in the Zito signing.
What is germane is that Sabean always seems to be given a pass on the Zito signing—responsibility always seems to be assigned to Magowan. Which leads to your third paragraph, which is where I think you and I are in total agreement. It’s essentially what I was saying earlier, and I think it’s essentially what Posnanski is saying.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
I don’t need him to be fired tonight, but I do think he shouldn’t be re-signed after this season. He’s done some things well, he’s done some things badly, but ultimately I disagree with his philosophy on team building. He’s made it work in the past, but I don’t have faith in it moving forward.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
Great point JR
.
ultimately I disagree with his philosophy on team building.This is what bothers me the most about Sabean. I continue to have this nagging suspicion that his over-reliance on “track records” will torpedo any success he’s had in drafting and building the system. It’s almost as if he’s the only GM on the planet who doesn’t understand that many “track records” were inflated by the ghosts of the steroids era. The expectation that 33-year-old + players will continue to play like they did in the late 90’s or early 00’s is just mind-boggling. Even Bochy commented something to the effect of this last week (according to Mark Grace on the FOX broadcast), “If our veterans just start hitting like the back of their baseball cards say they can, we’ll be okay.” Well, these guys (Molina, Renteria, Aurilia, Winn, et. al) are all reaching that age where they start to NOT hit like the back of their baseball cards say they can. But Sabes and Boch seem to be unable to comprehend that a player in his 30’s will start to fade. It’s maddening.
by FireBrianSabean on Aug 21, 2009 7:21 AM PDT up reply actions
A lot of people will point to the good things that have happened to the Giants and praise Sabean for it, advocating that he stay. If you look at these “good” things, though, many, if not most, of them were no-brainer things to do (ie. sign Bonds, draft Lincecum). And while a number of things he certainly could be validly praised for (getting Pablo, Cain, Sanchez), his many, many bad signings and trades outweigh those good things, IMO.
Seriously…I’m just going to start naming some of the bad signings/trades (and also non-trades of players), and let’s see where it brings us…
Piersinksky/Nathan, Tucker, Benitez, not trading Schmidt, Rowand, Zito, Aurilia (the second and third times), Roberts, Accardo/Hillenbrand…that’s at least what’s coming to my head.
Even if you want to say the trades/signings/drafting is evenly good and bad, I think tobais really got to the heart of this issue, which is the ideals he has put in place with his coaching staff. This is why I don’t think this team will succeed in the long run with the current group of coaches. The overaggressive at-bats, dry-humping of the veterans, and disregard of sample sizes just does not mesh with a championship team.
I don’t know anyone else out there that I would like to see Sabean and Bochy replaced with specifically, but I do feel that a change is needed before Tim and Matt hit free agency and we lose them.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
What a crock of shite!
You can’t say the choices he made that didn’t work out were obviously bad, and every good thing he’s done was a total no-brainer. That’s bullshit.
But I totally agree with you on everything else.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
You can’t say the choices he made that didn’t work out were obviously bad, and every good thing he’s done was a total no-brainer. That’s bullshit.
No where did I say either of those things. You are overexaggerrating my overarching point. As far as his bad moves not being obviously bad…then why was nearly everyone on this site against these things when they happened? Casual fans should not be more informed or knowledgeable than management of a multi-million dollar ballclub.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Aug 21, 2009 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions
you show me a franchise that you think is better run than the Giants and they’ll probably have just as many bad trades and FA signings as the Giants do. Not that Sabean has been great, but he really hasn’t been any worse than most of the others.
embarrassed father of over the hill Edgardo Renteria
by rxmeister on Aug 21, 2009 9:08 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Really?
I don’t think so, but I’m willing to consider it. Let’s take the Red Sox, Cardinals and Angels. Would you say those teams are better run than the Giants? I’d be willing to bet that they have fewer misses among their trades and FA signings than Brian Sabean has had. Mainly though, it’s not so much about avoiding bad trades and signings. It’s about mixing in a few really good ones; maybe even a great one from time to time.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
I'll play with the Red Sox
2005 Red Sox: Signed Edgar Renteria which was a huge fail, big contract and they dealt him the next off-season for Andy Marte, who quickly was found to be a bad move as well. Signed David Wells to a 2 year 8.25 mill deal, Wells was decent in 2005, but very bad and traded away by 2006. Signed Matt Clement prior to 05 season and he turned out to be a very bad deal as well. 26 Mill over 3 years for 18 wins, his first year in 05 was ok, but he quickly got bad and then got that linedrive to the head which pretty much ended his career. Boston also resigned Varitek that off-season to 39 mill over 4 years, and 05 was Varitek’s last really good season, since then he rapidly declined.
The Sox made up for a really poor FA off-season by drafting Ellsbury, Michael Bowden, Clay Buchholz, Craig Hansen, and Jed Lowrie in the draft in the 1st round and supplemental.
Some other genius moves:
Trading Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez and prospects for Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota. This trade was not Epstein’s, as he was away from the Red Sox at the time but it’s turned out well for both teams obviously. But given the Red Sox problems at SS over the past 5 years, they really should have kept Hanley.
Trading Bronson Arroyo for Willy Mo Pena….ha.
Trading Josh Bard and Cla Meredith for Doug Mirabelli, because they mistakenly traded Mirabelli away in the off-season for Mark Loretta, who promptly had his worse season in 10 years in Boston. Bard and Meredith were key figures in a Padres division title. Signed Carlos Pena in August of 06, and let him walk in the off-season, he hit 46 HR’s the next year for Tampa.
In December of 06 signed Julio Lugo, and Dice K, who have become bad contracts for Boston. Other bad moves since then include an extension to David Ortiz, trading 3 prospects to Texas for Eric Gagne. Trading away Joel Pineiro to St. Louis for nothing. Re-signing Curt Schilling prior to 2008 season despite the fact he was injured only to pay him 8 mill to be on the DL all year. Traded Aardsma to Seattle for nothing this off-season. Though can’t I say I blame them.
Some of these moves are nitpicking, as it was pretty unlikely a certain player who had been bad would suddenly figure it out, but people nitpick with Sabean so….
Yeah, I was going to say even before I read your post that Boston is not a good example. They just have the monetary resources to get over the bad deals they make.
I would agree that the Angels have been run pretty consistently well (aside from Matthews, Jr).
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Aug 21, 2009 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions
“Trading Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez and prospects for Josh Beckett, Mike Lowell and Guillermo Mota. This trade was not Epstein’s, as he was away from the Red Sox at the time but it’s turned out well for both teams obviously. But given the Red Sox problems at SS over the past 5 years, they really should have kept Hanley.”
Not that I’m addressing your general point, but with this particular trade, it’s easy to say that in hindsight. The only problem is when Hanley was traded he was coming off a .271/.335./.385 season in AA. The Red Sox got one key piece and another decent one in Beckett and Lowell. Given what they knew at the time, I hardly think it’s fair to look at this trade based on what we know now.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 11:52 AM PDT up reply actions
Hanley was also considered at the time one of the top prospects in the game and was young for AA. So while his stats for the year were pretty meh, the scouting side of things still saw him very favorably. And he’s more than proven that to be correct since then.
I agree, which is why he was the cornerstone for a deal for someone as talented as Beckett. I’m just saying that while he was a big time prospect and thought well of, there were a lot of doubts about him at the time of the trade because of his performance. Given the Marlins track record, I’m not surpised it worked out for them. Maybe we should get whoever’s running the Marlins to replace Sabean…
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 12:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t be opposed to that. Larry Beinfest is my white whale of GM candidates to replacing Sabean. But Beinfest moved up to team president or something and isn’t even GM anymore in Florida.
It was really just an off the cuff suggestion. I don’t know the first thing about the Marlins organization, but they do seem to do a good job. If you know more, I’d be interested to hear.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions
If Edgar was having his Boston season this year SF might have LA's record.
100 R
172 H
36 2B
70 RBI
.276 / .335 / .385
that's sad.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Still wouldn’t be worth the $9 mil even if he was doing those numbers for the Giants. I was against getting him, but now that he’s here…
I will never defame the reputation of a man who has proven himself. Edgar Renteria WAS one of the best all-around SS of his era.
His 2171 hits for example, is the third-highest amongst players his age and he is 13th amongst players active. Among active SS only Jeter and Vizquel have more hits. Among SS only Jeter and Vizquel have have scored more than Edgar’s 1134 runs. Among SS only Jeter and Vizquel have more than his 409 2Bs. Those 2 are headed for the HOF, Edgar probably not.
If you look at these "good" things, though, many, if not most, of them were no-brainer things to do (ie. sign Bonds, draft Lincecum).
Right there is where you said his “good moves” were no-brainers. You do specify many, if not most, so you’re right… I did exaggerate. But again, I totally agree with everything else you had to say.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
Exactly...
Right opinion, wrong reason for holding it… there is no way anyone can say with a straight face that Lincecum was a “no-brainer.” Just a ridiculous assertion that ignores history.
Obligatory disclaimer: Sabean should still be fired.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Signing Bonds was a no-brainer...
…but nothing to do with Sabean. He did re-sign him, I guess.
Drafting Lincecum is only a no-brainer in hindsight. At the time there was some concern about his size, fluky mechanics, injury risk (as a result of the other two), and the potential that he might end up in the bullpen.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
I read somewhere (I forget where) that Sabean wanted to cut ties with Bonds after the 2001 season.
It Is Their Ignorance That Keeps Them From Recognizing The Truth
That sounds just like Sabean
Get rid of Bonds right before he’s about to take you to the World Series.
I’m not a big fan of judging performance based on things someone didn’t do but was rumored to have been considering, or was reported in the media to have once talked about with a highly placed anonymous source.
The bottom line is that Sabean didn’t cut ties with Bonds after the 2001 season. Whether he would have or not if he had free rein is never going to be anything more than a matter of speculation.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
by EliminateMe on Aug 21, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions
I do recall the fear of Lincecum’s mechanics (and body bias) being a big concern not only of many ballclubs, but also of many of the McCoven. I don’t think his signing was a no-brainer, but I’m sure glad they DID draft him.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
You recall correctly.
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 21, 2009 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions
His walk numbers were also pretty high in college; claiming that drafting Lincecum was a complete and total no-brainer is definitely a whole lot of hindsight.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Yes. I was happy to have him based purely on his PAC-10 stats, but no one was expecting all of this.
Merkin Valdez? Manuel Mateo? A rose by any other name...
was there someone else left in the player pool at that point that was arguably better?
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Aug 21, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions
The last Bonds contract was a bad deal from a baseball perspective, in my opinion. I’m not saying that Bond’s performance was not valuable, when he played. But given that there was squat to offset that contract in the minors with cheap young production, the failed FA signings to support Bonds is what we got. And ’05 when Alou and Bonds were both on the shelf for long periods, the organizational suck was painfully obvious. That was 1/3 of the payroll in two players not on the field.
From a business perspective, that contract paid itself back in buckets I am sure. The revenue from the homeruns was fantastic I’ll bet. So yes, it was a no-brainer. But for whom?
I Miss Jim Croce! One Of My Favorites From My Youth.
by giantsrainman on Aug 20, 2009 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions
I Got Them Steadily Depressin' Low Down Mind Messin' Bein' A Giants Fan Blues
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
Nicely Done!
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
Lincecum
While I give Sabean credit for being the first GM w the balls to draft Lincecum in 2006, the only reason Sabean was able to get him at 10th overall was the sheer idiocy of several GMs above him. #1 on that list was Bavasi, who had Lincecum pitching at UW in his own backyard and chose instead to draft a Cal pitcher w a high risk of failure due to diabetes, chronic wildness and the likelihood of being a one-inning guy at best. I’d ask Bavasi how that deal worked out for him, but he’s not answering his phone at the Mariners complex. Some of the other names taken above him: Luke Hochevaar, Greg Reynolds, Evan Longoria, Brad Lincoln, Andrew Miller & Clayton Kershaw. Other than Longoria, I think it’s safe to say that Tim blows any of those other guys out of the water.
In the cruel irony department, the guy drafted at #8 that year was one Robert Andrew Stubbs aka Drew, who Giants fans are now intimately familiar with after today’s game. It’s crazy – he’s making his MLB debut while Lincecum has already won his first Cy and is in the mix for his 2nd.
Eliminate that pesky Dominatrix in one easy step. Step 1: Tell her you're a Cubs fan!
Sabean got lucky with Lincecum
Just like the Vikings did with Adrian Peterson falling to them for a garbage reason.
As someone who went to a Pac-10 school and saw Lincecum pitch at UW, I don’t give a GM outside of the top 5 any credit for taking a guy of his caliber.
Lincecum was Tidrow's guy
Didn’t you read the recent post by Baggs recounting the story of how we got Timmeh? Tidrow was hot for him from the very beginning of the season, so much so that he talked Sabean into not going to any of his games so as to throw off any other team that might sniff out our interest. Give credit to Sabean for hiring and promoting Tidrow in the first place, and listening to his advice on which pitchers to draft, but he doesn’t deserve the main credit for Cain, Timmeh, MadBum, J. Sanchez, or T2.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
So what you’re saying is Sabean doesn’t deserve any credit for the pitching, but deserves all the blame for the offense? Ok then! There’s plenty of reasons to criticise Sabean but all these cherry-picking, distorting the facts to match your argument, line of arguments or frankly ridiculous and make a mockery of all the sensible reasons for wanting to get rid of Sabean.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
Don't put words in my mouth
I specifically wrote that Sabean deserved credit, just not the main credit, and I didn’t assign any blame for the poor positional player drafts/development:
Give credit to Sabean for hiring and promoting Tidrow in the first place, and listening to his advice on which pitchers to draft, but he doesn’t deserve the main credit
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Ok, put i still don’t see how he doesn’t deserve the main credit because he either should be credited for acquiring them or for hiring Tidrow and so ultimately he’s judged on the overall results. If you want to give credit for each move to the indiviual scout or person who made the signing then that’s fair, but you’ve got to do that across the board in which a discussion of Sabeans performance is pretty irrelevent as all moves have imput from elsewhere.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
Here’s my point in bringing it up. Our prowess at signing and developing good young pitchers has been basically the one saving grace of the Sabean regime over the past 5 years. All signs and reports point to the fact that Tidrow is the main guy coming up with these pitchers we’ve been drafting, and that he and people that work under him (as well as others in the org) are also mainly responsible for developing them into MLB pitchers. Therefore, if we don’t bring Sabean back after this year, but keep Tidrow and most of the pitching development people, then what have we lost? If Sabean leaves he won’t be taking Tidrow or these other employees with him, so we’ll still have the ability and structure in place to continue doing the one thing that has been our saving grace.
To summarize, since Sabean doesn’t own or possess the talent that performs these tasks, canning him will have little effect on this major organizational asset. Meanwhile, by tossing Sabean we rid ourselves of the things that he was mainly responsible for – signing FAs, making trades, deciding who to keep on the roster and who to let go, choosing a manager and coaching staff. These are all things that have been major problems for us during the latter half of Sabean’s reign.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
To summarize, since Sabean doesn’t own or possess the talent that performs these tasks, canning him will have little effect on this major organizational asset.
But there’s no guarantee that Sabean’s hypothetical replacement would listen to Tidrow as much or as well as Sabean. I’m sure there are other people giving a GM advice on selecting pitchers, and I’m sure there are GMs out there who like to “go with their gut”. There’s also no guarantee that Sabean’s replacent wouldn’t listen to the same shitty advisers who gave him the thumbs-up on Renteria etc.
Basically I agree with GiantFan; if Sabean’t talent has nothing to do with selecting our pitching staff, then it also has nothing to do with selecting our crappy hitters. Personally, I think Sabean’s contract should not be renewed, because he has done more things poorly than well, but also I think we should acknowledge the risks: things Sabean did do well (selecting pitchers) might be done worse in the future.
Osiris, lord of the dead, and relief pitcher for the San Francisco Giants.
FREDEMPTION 2009
" then it also has nothing to do with selecting our crappy hitters"
Except Sabean has control over the general direction of the franchise. If you want to absolve him of responsibility for each individual pick we made to be consistent, fine, but that doesn’t change the overall lack of emphasis on building our farm system. We didn’t value draft picks, we didn’t do much in international signings, we didn’t spend the money to acquire the talent in any way, and these are all things you can attribute to Sabean, and these are what kept us back. He simply did not and still probably does not understand the tremendous value you get from developing players.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 8:47 AM PDT up reply actions
He simply did not and still probably does not understand the tremendous value you get from developing players.
Considering he has a background IN player development and helped scout and draft some of the main keys of the Yankee dynasty, I think this is quite possibly the dumbest thing anyone could ever say about Brian Sabean.
I also used to point to Sabean's background with the Yankees
I suspect that Sabean’s reputation from his tenure there helped him perpetrate some of the heists he engineered to dump our lousy farm talent for shiny in-their-prime veterans, up until 2002.
But then I start wondering…if Sabean’s such a great developer of farm talent, what was he doing from 1996 until a couple years ago?
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
Well let’s see from early on they used the farm system to either trade for established major league players, or to promote talented prospects who later became key cogs in the Giants contention: IE trading Keith Foulke, Bob Howry and change for Roberto Hernandez, Wilson Alvarez, Danny Darwin. Trading for Kirk Rueter, Ellis Burks, Darryl Hamilton, Robb Nen, Livan Hernandez, J.T. Snow, Rich Aurilia. Picking up Felix Rodriguez off the scrap heap. Etc. As you said he was acquiring veterans with those young players, and the strategy worked up until 2002.
As far as farm talent in positional players the Giants had some awful luck in way of injuries during the key years of players early development. Much like with Eddy Martinez-Esteve, guys like Lance Niekro, Sean McGowan, Todd Linden, Tony Torcato, Carlos Valderrama, Marcus Sanders etc. Just for fun I went and looked at the Angels farm system in 2000, and Mike Napoli is the only guy I can find at any level who is with the team now or who even became good. And he was 18 at the time and didn’t figure it out as a prospect until he was 22. There is a lot of luck involved in this process.
White flag trade
IE trading Keith Foulke, Bob Howry and change for Roberto Hernandez, Wilson Alvarez, Danny Darwin.
Funny how Mike Caruso is part of the unnamed afterthought in retrospect. There was a while there where he seemed like the most regrettable piece to give up. That was when he became their starting shortstop in 1998 and Foulke didn’t become their regular closer until 2000.
"The questions are so stupid. I don't believe in rivalries. I don't believe in curses. Wake up the damn Bambino, maybe I'll drill him in the ass."
- Pedro Martinez, asked about the Curse of the Bambino
by achiappanza on Aug 22, 2009 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions
I was a huge Mike Caruso fan, and hated that trade with a passion. Yes, even though we got some good pitchers, but I think if Caruso hadn’t been rushed to the majors by the then-inept ChiSox, he could have turned out to be a SS mainstay for us for years.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
I think you’re missing my point. Yes, Sabean did use the Giants farm system to bring in a real haul of talent, right up to the end of 2002. And again, I’ve always said that Sabean was effective as a GM through the end of 2002. But that effectiveness was greatly centered around somehow getting other teams’ GM’s to believe that the Giants farm system had real talent on tap.
Instead, Giants prospects largely turned out to be fools gold, as prospect after prospect sent from the Giants to other teams almost always turned out to be worthless, most of them never even making it to the Major Leagues. In exchange, Brian Sabean received established major league players from other teams who would help keep the Giants at or near the top of the standings for a good chunk of the next seven seasons.
You mentioned two of the better minor leaguers who were dealt to get all that veteran talent (by the way, Sabean traded Mark Leiter only in the deal for Kirk Rueter and Tim Scott; no Giants minor leaguers were involved in that trade). But you left out all the flotsam and jetsam Sabean also dumped on unsuspecting GM’s. From the end of 1996, through the end of 2002, Sabean dealt the following list of Giants from the minor league system (noteworthy players in bold):
- P: Jamie Brewington, Fausto Macey, Mike Johnson, Carlos Valdez , Brandon Leese, Chad Hartvigson, Lorenzo Barcelo, Keith Foulke, Bob Howry, Ken Vining, Joe Fontenot, Mike Pageler, Mike Villano, Ricky Pickett, Darin Blood, Steve Reed, Jim Stoops, Jason Brester, Troy Brohawn, Josh Santos, Jason Grilli, Nate Bump, Scott Linebrink, Joe Smith, Erasmo Ramirez, Todd Ozias, Ryan Vogelsong, Kevin Joseph, Ryan Meaux, Felix Diaz, Jeff Verplancke
- C: Marcus Jensen, Alberto Castillo
- IF: Jesus Ibarra, Mike Caruso
- OF: Brian Manning, Chris Singleton, Jacob Cruz, Dante Powell, Chris Van Rossum, Dan McKinley, Chris Magruder, Calvin Murray
In exchange for the above listed players, plus these players:
- Allen Watson (P), Armando Rios (OF), Darryl Hamilton (OF)
…here is just some of what the Giants received:
- P: Wilson Alvarez, Danny Darwin, Roberto Hernandez, Robb Nen, Jose Mesa, Alan Embree, Felix Rodriguez, Livan Hernandez, Doug Henry, Jason Schmidt, Jason Christiansen
- C: Brian Johnson
- IF: Ramon E. Martinez, J.T. Snow, Mark Lewis, Charlie Hayes, Shawon Dunston, Andres Galarraga, Bill Mueller
- OF: Joe Carter, Ellis Burks, John Vander Wal, Kenny Lofton
I bolded the Giants minor leaguers who went on to have marginal to decent MLB careers. Out of 43 total traded, only 5 even rise to the grade of “fair-to-middlin’”. Barely 10% is not good odds, and I believe the league’s GM’s began to wise up to Sabean and his farm system.
After 2002, Sabean found it far more difficult to fleece his counterparts. Giants’ minor leaguers were no longer in demand around the league. In fact, since 2004, Brian Sabean has only been able to trade one Giants farmhand (Shairon Martis). On those rare occasions Sabean was able to swing a deal, a great deal less was offered Sabean and the Giants in return. After 2002, the Giants traded these farm system products:
- P: Clay Hensley, Brian Powell, Kurt Ainsworth, Ryan Hannaman, Greg Bruso, Francisco Liriano, Boof Bonser, J.T. Thomas, Carlos Villanueva, Glenn Woolard, Adam Pettyjohn, Josh Habel, David Aardsma, Jesse Foppert, Shairon Martis
- IF: Edwards Guzman, Damon Minor
- Plus: Livan Hernandez (P), Damian Moss (P), Joe Nathan (P), Jerome Williams (P), Yorvit Torrealba ( C )
Here’s the best of what Sabean got in return:
- P: Jim Brower, Matt Herges, Sidney Ponson, Wayne Franklin, Dave Burba, La Troy Hawkins, Mike Stanton
- C: A.J. Pierzynski
- IF: Eric Young,
- OF: Dustan Mohr, Randy Winn
No bellwether starting pitchers, a few OK relievers, a couple fair-to-decent outfielders and a cancer at catcher.
Bottom line, Brian Sabean has presided over a farm system that has been awful in epic proportions. There have been a few noteworthy pitchers, but there’s been a complete dearth of position players. No one will even go near a Giants outfield prospect now. The last one taken in trade was Calvin Murray in 2002. And that was for cash!
And that’s my point: Brian Sabean most assuredly has not been a great developer of farm talent. He came to S.F. with that reputation. But 12 years and change with very few true prospects developed, until very recently, has exposed Sabean for the failure he is, in the area of developing talent from within the system. By the way, your attempt to explain away the “cavalcade of fail” (Eddy Martinez-Esteve, Lance Niekro, Sean McGowan, Todd Linden, Tony Torcato, Carlos Valderrama, Marcus Sanders, etc…), as being largely the product of “awful luck with injuries”, made me laugh.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
How does his scouting background in the least bit imply that he understands player valuation? Maybe before coming to such strong conclusions and attacking a comment like that you should think it over a bit, or if it’s unclear, try to get some clarification. Not that I think fangraphs is the end all, be all, but I think they have a good idea with their WAR based player valuations, and I could run a study (like Eric Manning did on first round picks) to determine how much value various groups of players, on average provide a team. Based on Sabean’s track record, it seems painfully obvious to me he doesn’t have the slighest clue how to properly value players or what kind of excess value you get from developing home grown players. Just because he may have a skill to actually accomplish something doesn’t mean he understands how much value what he’s accomplishing actually has.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree with you. My point was not that Sabean did not select our crappy hitters or our good pitchers, my point was that he selected both. I’m sure he had plenty of advice, and worked with other people in the organization in order to select both pitchers and hitters, but he nonetheless bears a substantial portion of the responsibility for all player acquisitions, good or bad (with a possible exception if he were overruled from the top, i.e. Magowan).
Osiris, lord of the dead, and relief pitcher for the San Francisco Giants.
FREDEMPTION 2009
But losing Sabean doesn’t lose the main guys that scouted and ran our draft. Don’t tell me that you honestly believe that, except maybe for this year, Sabean was intimately involved in finding and choosing any draftee beyond the first 2 rounds, or international FA besides AnVil and RafRod? I think that it’s pretty obvious that, except possibly for Wheeler, Sabes role was more of one to turn down Tidrow and his staff’s recommendations due to money issues. Obviously, he would be the one to make the final decision in the first 3 rounds if Tidrow and the staff was deadlocked. He also probably set the overall direction of the scouts in terms of looking for a specific type of player in terms of tools and positon played.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
There’s no point repeating neurofarm as he summed up my point, but if Sabean leaves then he also won’t take the people responsible for choosing and developing the hitters either. Ultimately Sabean as GM is responsible and judged by the people he employs, whether they’d good or bad, and if they do their jobs well , he looks good, and if they do their jobs poorly he looks bad. You can choose to devolve that responsability if you wish but if you do it unevenly it just comes across as cherry picking your arguments.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
I don’t agree that Sabean doesn’t get any credit for the draft picks. Do you think he has no say in the pick whatsoever? He just listens to what others tell him and doesn’t at least watch film of the kids he ultimately picks? Don’t forget that Sabean initially rose to fame because of his success running the Yankees farm system. He also could have traded these kids later for the over the hill veterans everyone thinks he’s obsessed with. He knows the buck ultimately stops with him and he’s not going to blindly accept the word of his underlings when he makes his draft picks.
embarrassed father of over the hill Edgardo Renteria
by rxmeister on Aug 21, 2009 9:17 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
I have to agree with you, and point out what many people seem to miss. Everyone wants to credit John Barr and Dick Tidrow with any and all successes in recent drafts. A GM isn’t omnipotent, he has to listen to the people he has working for him. If they are the geniuses behind the recent draft picks, then Sabean still deserves credit for hiring them and listening to them when they make their recommendations. That’s what a good boss does, especially one who wants to have any success.
I still think it’s time to replace him after this season, but I really believe you need to give Sabean credit for the good and bad moves he’s made. Whether or not it’s John Barr, Dick Tidrow, or Magowan “forcing” Sabean to get Zito, it all has to go back to him. Even if the owner says, “We have Barry, so we have to win now,” it’s still up to the GM to determine how best to win now.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
I generally try to avoid this subject altogether, but I have a question. We like to tout the success we’ve had with pitchers, what success has that been, exactly? Timmy is amazing, and we lucked out with him, Cain was a very good pick, as well, and Brian Wilson has been successful and Jonathan Sanchez may or may not turn into the ace we hope he can be. Sabean’s been here since 1997, though, how much pitching talent have we really come up with over that time period, factoring in how long he’s been doing it?
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 10:50 AM PDT up reply actions
Giants pitchers developed under Sabean’s tenure:
Joe Nathan
Francisco Liriano
Russ Ortiz
Scott Linebrink
Keith Foulke
Bob Howry
Noah Lowry
Jerome Williams
Jesse Foppert
David Aardsma
Kurt Ainsworth
Carlos Villanueva
Jeremy Accardo
Shairon Martis
Jason Grilli
Tim Lincecum
Matt Cain
Brian Wilson
Sergio Romo
Jonathan Sanchez
Kevin Correia
Jack Taschner
Brad Hennessey
Erasmo Ramirez
Lorenzo Barcelo
Nate Bump
Ryan Vogelsong
Troy Brohawn
Boof Bonser
Erick Threets
Alex Hinshaw
Brian Burres
Scott Munter
Osiris Matos
Clay Hensley
Matt Palmer
Felix Diaz
Billy Sadler
Pat Misch
Jon Coutalagus
Laugh at some of these names if you wish, but the Giants got a lot of these guys in parts of the draft where you’re not expecting to get guys who will one day make the majors, let alone make a small or decent contribution to your club.
I was asking a real question, hoping for a real response. If you could cut the names down to the relevant ones, that’d be good…
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 12:14 PM PDT up reply actions
To be more specific, guys that had some sort of real MLB impact. Guys that stuck around for a while, were actually good, maybe had a good season before flaming out (Liriano)…a lot of those guys look like replacement level fodder that got a chance before teams realized what they were and moved on.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 12:40 PM PDT up reply actions
There's a difference between drafting and developing
All those guys may have been drafted under Sabean’s regime, I’ll take your word for it, but I count at least 8 that did the vast majority of their “developing” in other team’s systems. Drafting is not the same as developing. Until Matt Cain started a new trend, we did not have a lot of success developing the pitchers that we drafted into players that had a big impact playing for the SF Giants. Of course, it’s fair to point out that some of them did allow Sabean to trade for big impact players like Nen, Livan, and Schmidt, but all of them ended up at most as marginal big league pitchers.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Brandon Morrow was a great pick. You’re talking about a guy rushed to the majors to be a reliever, then turned into a starter, then a reliever, then… you get the point. Had they just picked one and let him develop normally, the pick wouldn’t even have been brought up.
If you want to ridicule anyone for that draft, how about the Royals for drafting Hochevar #1? Or the Rockies for drafting Greg ReynLOLds #2? WHEN EVAN LONGORIA AND TIM LINCECUM WERE STILL ON THE BOARD. Or the Pirates for Brad Lincoln #4? The Orioles for Rowell at #9?
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 22, 2009 2:18 PM PDT up reply actions
That competent-to-very-good bullpen...
…is in large part thanks to what have turned out to be an excellent bunch of signings last offseason: Affeldt, Howry (the dingers are maddening, but overall he’s been okay), Miller, and Medders.
Execution, at the plate and on the bases, has been a huge problem. Unless there’s a reason to think Sabean is bringing in fundamentally uncoachable players, though, the blame for that has to go mainly on the coaching staff.
I don’t really see how you can call the season a pleasant surprise and still be calling for Sabean’s immediate firing as a result.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
Execution, at the plate and on the bases, has been a huge problem. Unless there’s a reason to think Sabean is bringing in fundamentally uncoachable players, though, the blame for that has to go mainly on the coaching staff.
Is there a reason to think that major league hitters are coachable to any significant extent? Maybe coaching can create marginal improvement with young players over the course of several seasons, but expecting veterans to change a long established approach is another story.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Do you think the Giants will ever win a World Series with Sabean as GM?
If your goal is to have “pleasant surprise” seasons every now and again, then I think Sabean’s your man. If your idea of an acceptable GM is a guy who does a good job of drafting and developing pitchers, can sign the occasional relief pitcher, and can put together a decent pitching staff, but who has absolutely zero understanding of what a good hitter is, nor does he know how to construct a productive lineup of hitters, then, once again, Brian Sabean is a good guy to have at the helm.
I always thought the goal was more than just being pretty good, or to play “meaningful games”. I always thought the goal was to win the World Series. I just don’t see this happening with Sabean running things.
Also, I have to disagree with the idea of placing blame on the coaching staff for the problems at the plate and on the bases. Good hitters hit wherever they go. Batting coaches come and go, and good hitters will always hit. At the major league level, a good hitting coach can maybe help good hitters make minor adjustments and maybe break out of a slump. But the best hitting coach can’t make a good hitter out of a bad one, nor can he make a great hitter out of a mediocre one. You can replace Carney Lansford (and Shawon Dunston?) with the best hitting coach in all of baseball, and this lineup still will not score runs. They simply are not good hitters. Pablo is certainly good. But the rest of them range from “somewhat OK”, to “meh”, to “downright abysmal”.
Brian Sabean is the one who has assembled this lineup. Since 2003, Sabean has repeatedly opted for mediocrities and washed-up vets like:
- Dave Roberts
- Ryan Klesko
- Shea Hillenbrand
- Steve Finley
- Michael Tucker
- Bengie Molina
- Randy Winn
- Aaron Rowand
None of the above, not even Molina, Winn and Rowand, have ever finished a complete season with the Giants with an OPS of .800 or better. None of those guys were ever going to be guys you build an offense around. (Sabean did sign on for two years of Moises Alou in 2005-06. But Alou was 38 at that point, and, to no one’s surprise, had to miss nearly a third of those two seasons due to injury and his need for more rest.) They are all mediocre. You might argue that some of them have acceptable levels of mediocrity, and I might even agree, if only there were some truly great hitters in the lineup so that we weren’t so dependent on the mediocre ones.
I don’t think a good hitting coach would make any significant difference in any of those hitters. And really, if you think good coaching would make such a significant difference in the Giants offense, then who do you blame for hiring the coaches we have now? I think Bochy is responsible for bringing in Flannery, but I believe the rest of them have mostly been Sabean hires. Either way, who is responsible for the team? Who is responsible for shaping the way hitting, fielding and base-running are coached throughout the organization? Who is ultimately responsible to inculcate the “Giants Way” into the hearts and minds of each Giant?
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
What do you expect him to do have superstars at every position? Every team no matter how good signs “mediocre vets” because no team can fill their team out with stars & young players as it isn’t feasible. You could produce a similar list for every GM that’s been going, it’s just part of the business. The problem hasn’t been that we’ve signed “mediocre vets” it’s that we’ve not had the offensive stars and that in the past we had too many of those vets as we hadn’t produced enough young players. Now we’ve got a mix but are still lacking multiple good players.
Also, your list has quite a few problems in of itself:
Klesko was a cheap pickup for next to nothing to fill out the roster. It was the most inconsequential of moves & so there shouldn’t be any real issue with that move.
Randy Winn has actually been a good player for us and been worth far more than we’ve paid him. Sabean should actually get credit for acquiring Randy Winn not criticism.
Benjie Molina has actually been a good player for us and been worth more than we’ve paid him. Sabean should actually get credit for acquiring Benjie Molina not criticism.
Finley was a salary/veteran swap so was inconsequential with regards to increasing the veteran quota or spending more money.
That’s half of your moves that have actually been prefectly reasonable or good moves.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
As I said...
You might argue that some of them have acceptable levels of mediocrity, and I might even agree, if only there were some truly great hitters in the lineup so that we weren’t so dependent on the mediocre ones.
I never said I want superstars at every position, and I certainly don’t expect that. I just said I would like one or maybe even two more impact hitters sprinkled into the lineup. Is it too much to ask for just one more .800/.850+ OPS guy? Or, dare I say it, another .900+ OPS guy? If I wanted to get real greedy, I’d hope for one of each to go along with Panda. That’d suit me fine.
The point of the above list is that they were all OK-to-mediocre-to-poor players, with not one real impact hitter (except for Moises Alou) acquired since 2004.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
I didn’t say that it’s unreasonable just that it’s misplaced to blame the signing of mediocre players when the problem is more a case of what he hasn’t done as opposed to what he has done.
One of the problems is that it’s very hard to acquire impact hitters, that don’t give there value back on defence, or cost ridiculous amounts of money. The most effective way to do that is to develop them yourselves and we’ve obviously failed in that department. Of course part of the reason for that is we haven’t been willing to invest our resources (primarily draft picks) into that area, as opposed to pitching where we’ve been very succesful. As a note i’m talking about position relative impact hitters, there’s really no excuse for us not to have a competant hitter (800+ OPS) from 1B for so many years.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
Hillenbrand, who had a reasonably impressive line that year in the American League, cost us nothing except the difference between Accardo (whom we lost) and Chulk (whom we got)—not to have made this move would have been dumb. As to people we could build an offense around, you might recall that the earlier acquisitions were supplements to Bonds.
Just because Hillenbrand didn’t cost us much (although for a while, Accardo was lights-out for the Blue Jays), and because you look at his stats and think he looked like a good pickup, doesn’t mean it was a good trade. The fact is, Hillenbrand stunk, and it wasn’t a good trade. The Giants needed a good hitter, and once again, Sabean failed to deliver.
Let’s say you needed a car to get to and from work every day, and to take occasional long trips between the Bay Area and Colorado. You’re looking, and you see some really nice cars but you think they’re too expensive. You see some other cars that actually would’ve proven excellent for your purposes, but you judge them to be not what you are looking for. Then you see an old 1993 Grand Am! “It was a real nice car in its day”, you think. “And just look at it—I’ll bet it still gets down the line with power to spare!!” You are excited, but you want to play it cool. You act nonchalant as you sidle up to the salesman.
But the salesman at Blue Jay Motors is actually desperate to unload this car. It shows signs of breaking down every time he turns the key, and it clearly is on its last legs. “Tell you what I’m gonna do—I’m gonna give you this car, plus a free tank of gas! And all I want from you in return is $100. That’s it! Wait—you seem a little hesitant. You wanna kick the tires? Go right ahead!” You can hardly contain your glee as you shake the car salesman’s hand and drive off the lot with the Grand Am and the free tank of gas.
Halfway home, the car sputters and grinds to a halt, and refuses to start up again, no matter how many times you turn the key or cuss ‘til you’re blue in the face. You end up having the Grand Am towed to your house, where it sits on blocks for the remainder of the year, until someone finally takes it off your hands after seeing the sign you put up in your front yard: “FREE CAR TO ANYONE WHO WILL TOW IT AWAY”.
Now, you might think that the Grand Am wasn’t a bad deal, because it didn’t cost you much of anything and because you had what you considered to be a good rationale for getting the car. I say it was a bad deal. You needed a good car. You failed to get what you needed. The Giants needed a good first baseman. They too failed, and badly. You say that it didn’t cost them anything, but this misses the point. The objective isn’t to get a good, productive first baseman, or, failing that, to at least get a lousy one that doesn’t cost you much. And it doesn’t matter that Hillenbrand had had some good years in the AL, and so the trade made sense to you. It also made lots of sense for J.P. Ricciardi to unload Hillenbrand as fast as he could, and it made sense for most of the league’s other GM’s to cut a wide path away from that deal that Brian Sabean walked into.
I mean, look, there’s almost always some reasonable rationale for just about any trade. What separates the successful GM’s from ones like Brian Sabean, is how often their rationale proves to be right, while Sabean’s proves to be wrong. I’m sure Sabean can make a convincing case to some KNBR host about why it actually made perfect sense to trade Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano and Boof Bonser, for A.J. Pierzynski. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins GM had his own rationale for wanting what he wanted. So who was the better GM in that moment? And the thing is, for the past several years, in transactions like these, Brian Sabean is all-too frequently on the wrong end of these bargains. After a while, I just think it makes sense to question whether Sabean really knows what he’s doing, and whether he even has to capacity to get the job done that needs to be done.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
Yeah I agree (w/ tobias)
First-Hillenbrand was DFA’d so we didn’t need to give up much for him. Instead we gave up Accardo who was a young reliever with some upside-he was rated as the Giants #13 prospect. This move was further hurt by the fact that our closer over that time was Armando Benitez, when we could’ve been developing a young reliever who would prevent the Tyler Walker era.
Second-Brian Sabean has lost my trust: as a giants fan I do not think he is smart enough to make good trades. IMO he is the 28th best GM in baseball-better than Omar Minaya and Dayton Moore. To his credit some moves have been great-Jason Schmidt & John Vander Wal for Ryan Vogelsong & Armando Rios was a brilliant move. But I think that move was great because Sabean was dealing with one of the few GM’s worse than himself (Littlefield).
Let’s look at what he did this year:
BAD MOVES
• Signed Bob Howry to a 1 yr deal which I believe is worth 10MM (but I’m not 100% about the money). This should’ve raised a red flag-why would Howry come to SF who wasn’t perceived as a contender after leaving the cubs who were seen as a legit WS contender. Why would he do this? Most likely because the Giants were giving him a huge amount of money. Why wouldn’t other teams offer Howry this much money? Because he wasn’t worth it and he has proven that this year.
• Traded #9 prospect Scott Barnes for what appears to be a platoon type player. I’m sorry but if I’m giving you a top 10 prospect I want a player who will play more than 7 innings per game. Now I get that Ishikawa is a defensive wizard but Garko’s bat should be good enough to force Bochy to keep him in the line up for the whole game, or else he shouldn’t be acquired for a top 10 prospect. Also about Sabean losing my trust when I heard the CSNBA anchor say "all the Giants had to part with was the young lefty…" I thought for a second that the Giants traded away MadBum.
• Traded #4 prospect Tim Alderson for Freddy Sanchez…who has had knee & shoulder problems since coming over to SF and will probably make $ 8 Million next year. When I heard this trade I was pissed off. I learned to hate the term "professional hitter". Don’t get me wrong-I like Sanchez but I was expecting a trade for someone like Brandon Crawford. Now I’m obviously not a GM but I think Neal Huntington could’ve been persuaded off Alderson pretty easily. I think the conversation could’ve started with Alderson but with Sanchez’s contract and his knee problems being an issue than the level of prospect is reduced.
• I don’t know if Sabean deserves all the blame for this because I don’t know how if he runs the draft or not but drafting Zack Wheeler and signing him for only 600K less than Tyler Matzek. Now the draft is a crapshoot, that’s true…But Matzek was regarded as the top prep pitcher in the draft and is a lefty that can throw 97 MPH. I would not mind the Giants drafting Wheeler if Matzek had signed for the 7 Million he reportedly wanted because he isn’t 4 million dollars better than Wheeler but he is 600K better than Wheeler, IMO.
• Good Things Sabean has done this year.
• Signed Jeremy Affeldt to a 2 year deal worth 8 Million. Affeldt has been the best Giants reliever this year and has been great as the only lefty. He has an ERA below 2 in august which is impressive.
• Invited Andres Torres, Brandon Medders and Justin Miller to spring training. Who would’ve thought that 3 non roster invitees would’ve been critical to a team 2 games back in the wild card. Medders and Miller have been great in the bullpen while Torres has been a very good 5th OF with Speed & Defense. Good job getting those guys. Ramon Ortiz has also pitched well at AAA and could possibly help in September.
.
Grab Some Pine Meat!
Bobby Howry is making $2.75M plus incentives
Hard to fathom how you got $10M there.
mlbcontracts.blogspot.com lists virtually every baseball contract and its terms.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
“What do you expect him to do have superstars at every position? Every team no matter how good signs "mediocre vets" because no team can fill their team out with stars & young players as it isn’t feasible.”
Of course we have to fill needs through free agency, and we don’t have the money to get great players at every position. However, just consider this for a minute. Even if you don’t take the Zito contract into account, Brian Sabean’s history of signing free agents shows he pays over $8M per win they provide. The market rate for wins over this time period is $4.5-5M (and it seemed to drop this last season). Brian Sabean is paying a 60% premium on free agents. I don’t expect him to be perfect, there will be bad mixed in with good, but I do expect him to get at least average results. Instead, he goes out and consistently makes bad decisions, and our team SHOULD get a lot more production out of the free agents we sign. If we have $20M to spend, we should reasonably expect to get 4 wins above replacement from that $20M. Instead, we barely get more than 2.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 6:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Maybe there has to be a premium to attract free agent hitters to AT&T – it has a reputation as a park that depresses offensive numbers. Lots of hitters don’t want to sign with the Giants for this reason.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
Maybe a couple have been scared off, but that doesn’t mean the overall market is affected or Sabean can’t move on to someone else he can find at market value. Plus, a 60% premium is pretty hard to explain away, that’s huge….
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions
also Sabeans' fault
by having lots of bad hitters who used to be good, AT&T looks like it’s where hitters go to die.
When in fact, it just doesn’t have magical recuperative powers.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Attracting hitters to AT&T
I kind of doubt that’s it. I mean, Denver has the opposite reputation, and they haven’t ever signed a guy who’d hit 30 HR’s elsewhere first.
"The questions are so stupid. I don't believe in rivalries. I don't believe in curses. Wake up the damn Bambino, maybe I'll drill him in the ass."
- Pedro Martinez, asked about the Curse of the Bambino
by achiappanza on Aug 22, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
Thanks for the research, out of interest what timescale is that over? I’ve never claimed that Sabean was good in the free agent market and there are other areas to acquire talent that he’s been more successful with. One of Sabean’s problems is that he tends to sign free agents one year too late as opposed to early so they have a habit of underperforming expectations.
Another point i’d like to make, and this isn’t really a pro/anti Sabean issue, is that comparing the money from WAR with the money you pay can have issues on a large scale. It’s a very good method that i use all the time, but it does have an issue. It arises from the fact that the GM’s responsability isn’t to creat the best value for money team he can but to create the best team given his set budget. This means that it can make GM’s of team with large payrolls look comparitely worse than they are and conversely make GM’s of teams with low payrolls look better. An example to illustrate this:
You have two identicals team with a salary of $70M that corresponds to an 85 win team. Now if you’re a low budget team with $70M to spend you stay there and end up with a good value for money team. If you’re a high budget team with a budget of $90M, there’s only 1 player available who is a 2 win player & asking for $20 so you sign him.
Now everyone claims the low budget team is run by a good GM who spends his money wisely whereas the GM of the high budget team is awful at spending money in the free agent market. But is that actually true (assuming of course that there’s nothing else the big budget team can spend it on)
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
Another poster did the research, so I can’t give you any specifics on it. Just reciting something I read online, so maybe it’s not even true, but personally I’ll trust it because it agrees with me. :)
As for that point, it’s an interesting thought, but in reality I don’t know how true that is. I could see situations where this arises, sure, but I don’t see it having a significant impact on the data. The ability to trade players should help solve this problem, too…
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Your hypothetical is, frankly, silly
If you have $20M to spend and you’ve procrastinated so badly that there is only 1 2-win player remaining to be signed, you deserve your own fate. You should have spent it on Matt Holliday earlier in the offseason.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Klesko was a cheap pickup for next to nothing to fill out the roster. It was the most inconsequential of moves & so there shouldn’t be any real issue with that move.
The Klesko pickup is a particular pet peeve for me. It was, indeed, the most inconsequential of moves, and therein lies the problem. It didn’t get us anywhere. It didn’t help the team contend in the present or build for the future. It was a time-killer, doomed to mediocrity.
Sure, sometimes a team has to take the cheap and easy way out. But while Klesko was also on the market, two youngish first baseman were also struggling to find jobs: Carlos Pena and Hee Seop Choi. Both had big-time flaws, like Klesko, but unlike Klesko they were young and talented enough that one could still hope that they might develop into building blocks for the future.
The different fates of Pena and Choi since then illustrate the perils of going after such players. You can easily end up with egg on your face. But I’d much rather have a GM who takes risky high-reward moves than one who goes after the Kleskos and Renterias whenever he has a problem to solve.
I’m not sure how signing Klesko precluded the acquiring of anybody else though, he certainly didn’t cost much and he wasn’t really brought here as a starter, he was brought in as a low risk pickup who might have rebounded after his injury. He just happened to be the best option and so ended up playing a lot. You can (and probably should) blame Sabean for not picking up someone better but i don’t see an issue with a picking up someone at low cost (who happens to be your best option as well) like that.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
+1
Agree with this.
"The questions are so stupid. I don't believe in rivalries. I don't believe in curses. Wake up the damn Bambino, maybe I'll drill him in the ass."
- Pedro Martinez, asked about the Curse of the Bambino
Do I think the Giants will win a world series with Sabean as GM?
Sure; they came within 6 outs of winning a world series under Sabean in 2002.
We also had Barry Bonds back then. We no longer do.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions
Now the Giants have Lincecum and Cain.
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 21, 2009 9:14 AM PDT up reply actions
Lincecum. As much as I like Cain, he isn’t even close to the same stratosphere as Bonds/Lincecum…
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions
Yes, but they are both on the team. And Cain is a friggin’ stud. The combination is a powerful one and a real reason why the Giants could win a World Series.
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 21, 2009 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions
They need more than one player who can swing a bat though
Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)
Agreed. I don’t think this is a WS team. But I can see it being one in the very near future with or without Sabean… a league average offense would do the trick.
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 21, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions
There’s one in AAA right now. His name is Bowker.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 22, 2009 2:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I like Bowker
He isnt the difference maker that makes this team a WS contender though
Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)
Howry has been awful. His ERA does not reflect the several inherited runs he’s allowed. As is typical of Sabean, he threw too much $ at a reliever who had been simply dreadful in 2008. Even if the Giants thought Howry would rebound, they could have gotten him for significantly less had they waited. Sabean needs to go if this team is ever going to take their game to the next level.
"The big thing people say to me is, 'Why don't you ever smile?' Well, I'm too interested in trying to beat somebody right now to smile." Will Clark
"I'm close to six feet, I like to think." The Freak.
Know WTF You Are Talking About Or STFU!
Bob has had 9 inherited runners and he has allowed just one to score. Bottom line you just made this claim up and I can’t stand a fool that is too lazy or stupid to find out the facts before he opens his damm mouth or in your case hits post.
by giantsrainman on Aug 20, 2009 8:35 PM PDT up reply actions 6 recs
I suppose it was bound to happen eventually.
Truth is, Howry’s been pretty good overall, but if you give up three walk-off homers, that’s pretty memorable.
I don’t think Howry is that bad (I don’t like him, though). When he fails, he does it at the worst possible time.
It Is Their Ignorance That Keeps Them From Recognizing The Truth
And that is where I am coming from. On the surface, his numbers don’t look too bad (they aren’t great) but you simply cannot lean on him in a tight game. In my humble opinion, that is what defines a good and bad reliever.
"The big thing people say to me is, 'Why don't you ever smile?' Well, I'm too interested in trying to beat somebody right now to smile." Will Clark
"I'm close to six feet, I like to think." The Freak.
Yea, 46 IP 20 runs is flat out awesome.
Oh, and also 6 losses and 3 blown saves. Yea, he’s been lights out. He’s the go to guy in a pinch. Or, Bochy could use him in a mop up role as he has done since the All Star break.
As for your rude, personal attack, its apparent we’ve discovered Howry’s butt buddy. Its also apparent who takes it in the ass in that relationship. It’s okay though, I’m sure you’re just an unemployed half wit who has nothing better to do with your pathetic existence except read posts and hurl blind insults at people who have legitimate, constructive critiques. Eh, who am I kidding, you’re probably a pimple faced middle schooler who hasn’t even gotten his first pubes yet.
"The big thing people say to me is, 'Why don't you ever smile?' Well, I'm too interested in trying to beat somebody right now to smile." Will Clark
"I'm close to six feet, I like to think." The Freak.
Fortyyears from now, I'll tell my grandchildren that I was there
when GRM came off as the voice of reason.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Exactly
Can you believe it? Just owned!
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 22, 2009 2:41 PM PDT up reply actions
The Only Issue I Addressed Was You Ignorant Claim Wit Regards To Inherited Runners
This current silly effort to recover on your behalf is not even worthy of any further response.
by giantsrainman on Aug 21, 2009 1:08 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
No, GRM is old, and we make fun of him all the time. And yet he just worked you. Isn’t that fun!
Aren’t you tough on the internet though, with your anti-gay rhetoric?
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 22, 2009 2:43 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Bob Howry’s WPA is -1.19 this season. Overall he’s pitched well, and the context aspect of it can be attributed to random chance/luck, but even so, it’s caused us to lose games, and I’m unhappy with those results.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 6:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Neither Saban or Bochy are going anywhere.....
I think this offseason is the biggest test he will face because the fanbase actually has expectations to win next year. This year was supposed to still be a rebuilding year. If we don’t go far in the playoffs next year I think this arguement will be valid.
Let’s see how he handles the shortsop, catcher and 3rd starter position over the offseason. Or hope that he makes a trade for a huge upgrade in a corner outfielder (doesn’t spend alot of money on Bay/Holliday). If we go into next season with the same roster and still no clean-up hitter then I will be calling for his head along with everyone else.
I agree, but...
It is not simply about what moves he will or will not make, but it is his philosophy of team building. He can make good moves and bad moves, but what really matters is the philosophy he uses to run the organization.
Like i have said before, I don’t think Sabean is a bad GM, but instead think he is an adequate GM, though not exceptional. When you are competing against organizations run exceptionally (think Red Sox, Yankees, Angels, Dogers), it definitely helps to be on their same level, because, obviously, we cannot compete financially with some of those organizations.
Who do you trust to assemble a better team? The Red Sox, or the Giants? Would you feel better about the Giant’s chances if Billy Beane or Mark Shapiro were running the Giant’s instead of Sabean? I know I would.
by Squire_Boone on Aug 20, 2009 6:38 PM PDT up reply actions
I would trust Shapiro to make a good trade, but in terms of team building he is fucking terrible. Have you ever seen some of the bullpens he’s constructed? The Indians just blew a 5 year window of contending in what was a weak division because of his blunders at filling out the roster. Shapiro is not that good. Wasting the prime years of guys like Sizemore, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Travis Hafner, etc.
What do the 4 teams you mentioned have in common? That’s right, much larger payrolls than the Giants. The Giants spend enough to give out large contracts, and when those deals go bad, it’s not easy to recover. Those other teams have made their share of bad decisions, but they have the financial flexibility to mask some of those errors.
The Giants are almost certainly in better financial shape than Dodgers ownership, and I’m fairly sure could pony up a $100 million payroll if they wanted to. Their payroll has been a little lower the last couple of years because they wanted to introduce more youth into the lineup but Sabean spent much of the spring talking about the flexibility they had to pick up big contracts mid-season from team’s that didn’t have their financial stability. If they wanted to they could, I’d guess, match the Angels payroll and still be turning a tidy profit.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
We can keep hoping that, by golly, THIS offseason will be DIFFERENT...
But let’s look at what Sabean has done the past five off-seasons to rebuild these and other key positions. It’s mediocrity so thick you can eat it with a fork:
Pre-2005 — Glaring Needs:
- Catcher — Signed: Mike Matheney; A typically uninspired and lazy Sabean signing; Matheney was a great guy and a clubhouse leader but nothing close to a good hitter, and Sabean overpaid for him as well. This is classic Sabean. He thinks being a great guy in the clubhouse somehow = runs and wins on the field. …Or maybe Sabean is just cynical enough not to really care if someone is any good. He just knows that most fans will keep quiet about a lousy player if he’s a “good guy”.
- Shortstop — Signed: Omar Vizquel; Excellent defense and adequate hitting for two seasons out of the four he eventually was signed for. Again, Sabean overpaid. And Vizquel completely stopped hitting after 2006.
- Right Field — Signed: Moises Alou; A pretty decent effort at signing a bona fide hitter. But Alou was 38, and had a history of being injury-prone, which proved true for him as a Giant. He missed nearly a third of his games in his two seasons with the team.
- Starting Pitcher to replace Kirk Rueter, who clearly was finished—Did: Nothing; The Giants went into 2005 with an ill-fated rotation of Schmidt, Rueter, Tomko, Lowry, and Williams.
- Closer — Signed: Armando Benitez; There’s really nothing more I need to say here. Except that when Benitez’ constant hemorrhaging of runs and leads, along with his infuriating tendency to deflect all blame for his failures, finally forced the Giants to cut their losses, Sabean expressed bitterness at…Giants fans for making Benitez into a “whipping boy”.
Pre-2006 — Glaring Needs:
- First Base — Gave job to: Lance Niekro; This failed miserably, leading to Sabean’s infamous trade for Shea Hillenbrand.
- Third Base — Gave job to: Pedro Feliz; Who we all are.
- Fourth Outfielder, with Barry Bonds and Moises Alou both old and unable to play every day, the Giants needed another outfielder to fill the gap — Traded for: Steve Finley; Finley proved to be truly awful, while insisting all along that he was great and should be playing every single day.
- 2nd/3rd Starting Pitcher — Signed: Matt Morris; Morris was a 20-game winner in 2001!! His ERA was 3.16!! He finished 3rd in the Cy Young voting that year!! 3rd place!! His ERA climbed steadily in the years that followed, as his effectiveness declined. So he was pretty dreadful by the time 2006 rolled around, and he was gone by the middle of 2007. …But 2001!! 3rd place!!
Pre-2007 — Glaring Needs:
- Manager — Hired: Bruce Bochy; Bochy is an improvement over Felipe Alou, who couldn’t be bothered to actually talk with his players. But Bochy has proven to be far too loyal to veterans, and is far too much of a tinkerer. He’s been hurt by constant double-switching, over-engineering of lefty-righty matchups, and a host of ill-fated bunting and hit-and-run plays.
- Catcher — Signed: Bengie Molina; Kind of a “Mike Matheney, Part Deux” signing. Bengie has hit better than Matheney ever did. But in every other respect, he’s the same kind of typical Sabean signing.
- First Base — Signed: Ryan Klesko; Often injured, his bat speed gone, Klesko was at the end of the line. Sabean took a flyer and came up empty.
- Center Field — Signed: Dave Roberts; Unfortunately, Roberts wasn’t really a center fielder. He wasn’t much of a hitter either. But Sabean signed him to a costly 3-year deal, a third of which he eventually had to eat.
- Ace starting pitcher/New Face of the Franchise/New Barry — Signed: Barry Zito; OK, I’m willing to go along with those who insist that this one gets laid at the feet of Peter Magowan.
Pre-2008 — Glaring Needs:
- First Base — Did: Nothing; Gave the job to Rich Aurilia. The Giants really needed Sabean to do something more here.
- Second Base — Did: Nothing; Gave the job once more to a badly fading Ray Durham. This time, doing nothing worked out pretty well. Durham dropped hitting for power and worked on getting on base, which he did pretty well; well enough that Sabean was able to trade Durham later that season, to Milwaukee for two prospects.
- Third Base — Acquired off waivers: Jose Castillo; It’s hard sometimes to understand what truly goes on inside the mind of Brian Sabean. In Jose Castillo, the Giants had a guy who was bad in pretty much every aspect of baseball that you can think of. He was kind of a “5-tools of Suck” player. Bad at hitting for average, bad at getting on base, bad power, bad defense, bad attitude… Am I missing anything?
- Shortstop — Did: Nothing; Gave the job to a Single-A player named Brian Bocock. Anyone could see that Bocock was badly overmatched as a hitter at the Big League level. Even Sabean managed to notice the situation, after 77 Bocock at bats.
- Center Fielder (hopefully a real one this time) — Signed: Aaron Rowand Giants fans fretted and worried that Rowand’s sometimes-good numbers in Chicago and Philly were more a product of his having played in extremely good hitters’ parks. “Pish posh”, opined Brian Sabean. “You Lunatic Fringers are never happy with anything! And after all I’ve done for you! Buncha ingrates…” Indeed, Rowand proved to be mediocre. But he did bring impressive gamerness.
- Closer — Gave job to: Brian Wilson; Wait…do my eyes deceive me? The Giants farm system actually provides a third pitcher (along with Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum) who is actually effective and can fill a major role on the team?
Pre-2009 — Glaring Needs:
- First Base — Gave job to: Travis Ishikawa; The Giants’ wait for the farm system to produce a bona fide hitter continues… Ishi has been OK at times, mediocre at others.
- Second Base — Did: Nothing; Could’ve signed Orlando Hudson or even Adam Kennedy. Instead went with the badly overmatched Emmanuel Burriss, who failed quickly, and has been followed by the likes of Kevin Frandsen, Juan Uribe, Matt Downs, Eugenio Velez and, finally (I think), Freddy Sanchez.
- Shortstop — Signed: Edgar Renteria; Most experts said this was the dumbest signing in the entire off-season. We said Sabean badly overpaid. But Brian Sabean just sat back with a look that only comes from supreme confidence. Or blissful ignorance, as it turned out. Edgar arrived in camp out of shape, underperformed, and soon developed bone chips in his elbow, which impacted all parts of his game, including base-running.
- Third Base — Gave job to: Pablo Sandoval; YES! We have a winner! A bona fide impact hitter from the Giants farm system! I have to give some credit to Sabean here for calling Pablo up last season, and for giving him a shot at third base this spring. Not only has Pablo proven to be an All-Star caliber hitter, he’s also proven to be pretty decent defensively, as well. Does Sabean get credit for this? Someone should.
- Third Starting Pitcher — Signed: Randy Johnson; This pretty much fell into Sabean’s lap, and it’s really no surprise that RJ soon got injured, and actually he wasn’t all that awesome before he got injured. But I still think it was a nice signing just the same.
I suspect you are right in saying that Sabean and Bochy aren’t going anywhere. And I agree that the fanbase will have higher expectations this coming offseason. But given the above track record, and given Sabean’s m.o. of being outbid for, or just shunning outright, the type of real impact hitters the Giants need most, I expect that come next March, you’ll be right with me calling for Sabean’s head. I’ll save you a spot in the rabble.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
by tobias on Aug 21, 2009 12:57 AM PDT up reply actions 3 recs
A couple of random thoughs: One issue is that we’ve been a pretty poor side over a number of years and so the majority would suggest that “filling needs” hasn’t be of the upmost importance. You also can’t ignore the market situation at the time (SS this year for example would have been almost impossible to fill). Also, obviously, filling a need for the long term is more valuble than filling it for a year or two. Overall the last couple of years have been quite fruitful with regards to filling a few long term needs. As oppsed to a couple of years ago we now have:
1) An ace who’s argubly the best pitcher in baseball.
2) A 3B who’s one of the best in the league.
3) A decent closer
4) Someone who likes like he should be a great catcher.
5) A couple of decent 3rd starters(albeit one ridiculously overpaid and one inconsistant)
6) A good farm system that’ll hopefully produce some more good players.
All of which are under contract for a lot of years. We also have Rowand, Sanchez and some bullpen pitchers who should be decent for the next couple of years.
What it really does show though is how much of an absolutely awful position we were in a few years ago when we had no farm system and a roster full of veteran, short-term players. The only positives we had were Cain (whose still a great pitcher a under contract for the next couple of years) and Lowry (who’s obviously fallen of the face of the planet)
Now a very good argument could be made for firing Sabean based on the shocking position he put us in. And he’s not been perfect since either, with many strange decisions that i’ve disagreed with. But sometimes it’s easy to get bothered by the small, and generally not very consequential, things and not take a look at the bigger picture that’s been pretty positive for the last couple of years. Whether Sabean’s the right person to take us forward i don’t know, i’m pretty indifferent to be honest, but it’s worth taking that step back.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
YES! That's what I'm doing...
I am advocating that Sabean be fired for the shocking position he put us in. And certainly, I agree that the Giants are better now than they were, even last year.
But here’s where I think you maybe are missing my point. You think I’m upset about “small, and generally not very consequential things”, when I should “take a look at the bigger picture that’s been pretty positive for the last couple of years.” No, precisely what I’m upset about is the bigger picture. The above post was an effort to take all those small things (why am I suddenly hearing Blink 182 in my head?), the few good things with all that bad, and form them into one big picture. The bigger picture is that, even with two, count ‘em, of the very best starting pitchers in all of baseball, even with a good closer and bullpen, even with all the other things you site above, I am realizing that Sabean’s wrong-headed, flawed approach to evaluating hitting, spending money, and building a lineup will always prevent the Giants from winning a World Series. This is my big picture: “Can the Giants ever win a World Series with Sabean running things?” For me, all signs point to ‘NO’, and unlike you, I’m very much, um, NOT indifferent.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
Well that’s fair enough, i can see that point. I’m indifferent because whilst he did a bad job for a few years, he’s also done a decent job in the last few years and had been relatively speaking successful before then.
I wasn’t saying that you were getting upset over the small things, it was a general comment that applies to everybody (myself included) so sorry if it came across that way. If i look at his whole picture i see someone who’s had a pretty standard track record with some good teams and bad teams, some good decisions and some bad ones. That’s why i’m indifferent (and that’s probably the wrong term) because there are plenty of GM’s that would do better than Sabean given the chance and plenty that’d do worse.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
No need to apologize...
I appreciate your comments. And certainly you’re not indifferent, otherwise you wouldn’t have taken the time to have read and commented here. So, thanks.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
How many years do you wait?
There is considerable evidence mounting that Sabean & Co. just don’t have the skills necessary to evaluate offensive talent. Whether it’s their philosophy or their talent evaluation skills, it’s hard to look past these kind of statistics:
2005 – 27th in team OPS (.714)
2006 – 25th in team OPS (.746)
2007 – 30th in team OPS (.708)
2008 – 28th in team OPS (.703)
2009 – 29th in team OPS (.698)
And the really crazy part is, in 2006 & 2007 Barry OPS’d around 1.000 with 500 at bats each season. So I think we are getting away from this being a small sample size issue to being a serious club issue. Sure, it’s refreshing to produce a Sandoval out of the system, and hopefully a Posey, but there’s not much evidence to suggest those players are anything more than an anomaly.
I did a little data crunching, and came up with the following numbers on Giants hitters:
2005 – 30th in pitches seen per plate appearance (3.55)
2006 – 30th in pitches seen per plate appearance (3.59)
2007 – 28th in pitches seen per plate appearance (3.65)
2008 – 29th in pitches seen per plate appearance (3.67)
2009 – 30th in pitches seen per plate appearance (3.59)
Again, these are consistently low numbers, even including a few seasons with one of the smartest, most patient hitters of his era getting 500 at-bats.
I think Sabean has to get credit for putting together a solid pitching staff…but if he continues to struggle producing an everyday lineup that isn’t historically bad, isn’t there a danger this solid pitching’s gonna be wasted?
IMO, this is proof that it’s not irrational for Giants fans to want Sabean’s head – 5 years of watching a squad with very little pop and very little patience would drive the most complacent fan crazy.
by otis29 on Aug 21, 2009 6:17 AM PDT up reply actions 6 recs
This
Everything you said. And thanks for crunching the numbers.
What continues to really baffle me is how Sabean could have sat there for more than 10 years, watching the greatest hitter of his generation—perhaps the greatest hitter ever to play the game—without learning a darned thing.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
THIS
Dude simply cannot put together an offense.
"I would've been here sooner but I had to shake the Veleasels"
by The Gene Hackman on Aug 21, 2009 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions
The problem is that the organization does not value players that focus on getting on base. They are trying to gather character guys that play hard and hit the ball well. The players are then taught to be overaggressive in their plate approach, and this creates very low OBP, OPS, pitches seen per at-bat, and whatever stat you can throw out there that shows whether they can get on base or have plate discipline.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Aug 21, 2009 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
I think this is faulty logic. No team is not going to want someone who gets on base and who can slug over .450. The problem is there is only a finite number of these types of players out there either in prospects or major league players. When talking about major league talent, the Giants are at a supreme disadvantage when it comes to acquiring those types of players because of the perception of their ballpark, their recent place in the standings and their ability to pay top flight FA’s the money they can command on the open market. When talking about prospects, that’s an even bigger crapshoot. International talents are signed very young and most are unknown until they get to America. Even then almost all of them flame out, and the ones that breakout almost always come out of nowhere. Pablo Sandoval for instance. Right now the Giants have some very good prospects like Posey, Neal, Kieschnick etc, but nobody knows how their development is going to go the rest of the way.
Albert Pujols came out of nowhere to become the best player in baseball from being a 13th round JC sign by St. Louis. Sean Burroughs was a consensus top prospect out of high school, and never developed into the All-Star player he was long touted as. Jeff Clement was a top college prospect with big time power and OBP ability and has yet to hit at the ML level. Meanwhile, guys like Pablo Sandoval, Mike Napoli, Russell Martin come out of the woodwork to become good young players seemingly out of nowhere since they were relatively unknown or unregarded as amateurs and in their early days as prospects. But for every Joe Mauer, you get guys like Burroughs, Clement, Delmon Young etc who flame out in the big leagues. And for every Pablo or Napoli, you have 50 other guys who even if the light briefly turns on in the lower minors they’re not able to make the adjustments to get past AA and AAA ball.
And if we’re just talking about players who can draw a walk, there’s a lot of those guys in the minors, a lot of them like Jeremy Brown for instance either can’t hit, don’t hit for enough power or play terrible defense. Think Fred Lewis. And that’s if they’re even that good enough to advance to the upper minors.
Player development is a total crapshoot. If it were so easy then these teams with supposedly superior methods of analysis would be rolling out good players left and right, but that simply isn’t the case is it?
It’s not faulty logic when you see a GM who pays for batting average instead of on base percentage in this day and age. Sabean doesn’t understand even the basic statistical aspects of the game. It holds our offense back, and will continue to do so unless we go in a new direction, one that knows how to properly value offensive production.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 12:17 PM PDT up reply actions
Like where?
Who was he supposed to get? It’s easy to say who was out there and point on a list and be like “so and so” but you don’t know if that player would even consider coming here in the first place.
Money talks, I think rather than assuming some players might not come here, we should assume everyone is available since we don’t know anything on that side of things (unless you have some sort of evidence they really might not have come). It’s the way he values guys like Molina, Feliz, Grissom – hackers. When was the last time we had a guy who takes walks? Pointing at individuals in hindsight doesn’t accomplish anything, so I’ll go a new direction:
Total Walks, MLB ranking:
2009: 30th
2008: 27th
2007: 15th, but Bonds had 132, without those we would be 29th at 400
2006: 21st, but Bonds had 115, without those we would be 30th at 379
2005: 26th
2004: 1st! Bonds drew 232 walks! we’d be 26th without them at 473
2003: 5th! Bonds drew 148, we’d be 27th at 445
Now, obviously taking away Bonds production is absurd, because he’s the best hitter and should be expected to draw the most walks and I essentially replaced him with a hitter that draws 0 walks. I just don’t feel like putting any more effort into it. The point is, we don’t take walks. Walks are one of the most valuable things in the game – players that don’t walk much, like the guys Sabean signs, generally have bad OBP’s, the most important aspect of the offensive game. Walks are incredibly important to offensive performance, and correlate extremely well with how well the offense as a whole does. This concept is beyond Sabean. We go after veterans and tout .300 BA’s, even if the guy is a weak singles hitter that has an average at best OBP. This is not a strategy that will ever be successful.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 12:54 PM PDT up reply actions
Money talks, I think rather than assuming some players might not come here, we should assume everyone is available since we don’t know anything on that side of things (unless you have some sort of evidence they really might not have come). It’s the way he values guys like Molina, Feliz, Grissom – hackers. When was the last time we had a guy who takes walks? Pointing at individuals in hindsight doesn’t accomplish anything, so I’ll go a new direction:
I agree, they don’t seem to value walks, but at the same time how many walk machines hit the open market all the time? Not that many. Maybe one or two guys an off-season? The best hitters walk no? And most teams that have good hitters likely drafted and developed said player. So as it stands it would make sense the Giants don’t have such a player when they have a 2 decade drought in developing a franchise caliber positional player.
I just find it funny that you think the Giants shouldn’t be looking to overpay on the open market for FA’s, yet say that money talks….well no shit. The truth of the matter is, is that Sabean is often damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t. It’s easy to sit on the couch and complain about shit, but when you’re in the driver’s seat you get a whole different perspective.
I don’t even want walk machines, I just want guys that have an average OBP and give us an average number of pitches per at bat. We can’t even accomplish that. You definitely have points that it’s not like you can just go out into the FA market and find a walk machine that wants to play for your team that you don’t have to overpay for. My observations, though, are the FA’s we do go for are ones that have better BA’s relative to their OBP’s. It’s like back when Beane and a couple other teams realized OBP is important and BA isn’t, so they could get OBP guys for the cheap, only Sabean is doing the opposite. The problem is the OBP strategy was effective because that actually impacts offensive performance, while Sabean’s strategy is not because BA doesn’t have nearly as big an effect on runs scored. It just really seems to me like Sabean makes the signings while only looking at batting average – he finds the guys that, based on their BA, are underpaid, only they’re underpaid for a reason – because their OBP isn’t good. :(
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions
I would buy your theory if they were actually acquiring guys with good batting averages, but they’re not.
Freddie Sanchez. If I remember correctly, Sabean was touting Renteria’s second half BA last year as the reason we signed him in the offseason. It just seems like Sabean still lives in the world that values batting average, while everyone else has moved on to a different game. Rowand is an above average BA guy. So is Randy Win. Molina has pretty much a league average BA which is impressive for a C. I’m looking at career stats for these. The fact that we bat Bengie 4th despite him having the worst OBP in major league baseball looks like evidence for this to me. Overall, none of these guys are good OBP but they have relatively high BA’s compared to their OBP.
by Missing Barry on Aug 23, 2009 11:28 AM PDT up reply actions
well, relatively.
They are pretty much last in every batting category EXCEPT batting average, where they are middle-of-the-pack. That indicates (to me) that, in the aggregate, they value batting average.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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Yeah, it's not like guys like Jack Cust and Carlos Pena are available for free
Wait. Guys like that are available for free every bloody offseason. Russell Branyan was signed for 2009 for less money than Ryan Klesko made in 2007. Bobby Abreu signed for 1 year and $5 million last offseason.
The notion that high-OBP hitters are somehow unavailable to the Giants is offensive to reality.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
you might be right
but why is it that the Giants have had a bottom-5 offense for the last 5 years? That’s failure.
Even if they also had a top-5 defense (pitching) for the last 5 years (which they’ve had for maybe 1-2), that’s only breaking even.
Is a .500 GM good enough? A couple years ago, I estimated Sabeans’ W/L record without spotting him Barry. I compared that to his payroll without Barry. Including the “good” years + the start of the bad years his record was .500. And that’s leaving the farm system in tatters.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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I agree, it’s definitely still failure. But over the past few years pickings have been slim to begin with both in tradeable assets and in the FA market. I just think it’s unrealistic to expect him to find gold in a pile of shit.
Overall, the team’s performance has improved on the field and their continued investment in player development seems to be going quite well. Over the next few years the Giants should be rewarded if things continue to go well. Look how long it took the Rays and Brewers to become competitive. It didn’t happen overnight. And it may not happen at all, but their chances seem to be much improved over what they were 2 and 3 years ago, when it looked pretty hopeless.
!!!
But over the past few years pickings have been slim to begin with both in tradeable assets and in the FA market. I just think it’s unrealistic to expect him to find gold in a pile of shit.
BUT IT’S A PILE THAT HE HIMSELF SHAT! If the Giants fired Sabes after 2004 and the new guy (Sabeans’ evil twin???) gave us exactly the same 2005-2009, then you would have a point.
It’s like giving him credit for trading Matt Morris for Raj Davis. Yeah, it was a good trade… but we shouldn’t have signed MM in the first place!
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Jeremy Brown looked like a perfectly reasonable backup catcher option before he abruptly retired for personal reasons
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Never seen Animal House then?
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 22, 2009 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions
He even used all caps to warn of the sarchasm…
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 22, 2009 2:50 PM PDT up reply actions
in Sabean's defense...kinda sorta but not really
First off, I hate Brian Sabean and wanted him fired a long time ago b/c of the huge mistakes he made in the FA market, etc, and not rebuilding the team soon enough at the ends of the Bonds era when it was obvious that Bonds wouldn’t be dominant forever. I’ve recently come to put a little more blame on Magowan for some of that, but Sabean is still not innocent. Also, he hates real fans.
That being said, this team is in contention in a year that no one was giving them a chance. The offense is only slightly less putrid than it was last year, but that IS an improvement. The starting pitching is even better and the bullpen, which Sabean spent good money to rebuild this offseason, is much better. Those are the reasons for the team being where it is in the standings. They’ve done this all despite an awful manager and hitting coaches who hate baseball.
The bottom line is that the team is moving in the right direction in terms of improvement on the field at the major league level and in its player development in the minors. This isn’t a one year process. How much credit Sabean deserves for these improvements is subject to debate, but there’s no question that he’s going to get some credit for it. So will Bochy. They probably won’t deserve it, but they’ll get it and be back next year. The team is putting a winning team on the field against all expectations. It should be even better next year. The team is better despite of all of the budgetary constraints that it has (much of which is due to Sabean’s bad FA signing track record.)
Sabean won’t be fired tonight though I’d love to see him and Bochy go after this season ends, mostly as punishment for prior misdeeds and for the whole swing at everything veteran love slop hacking philosophy the team employs. However, we’re still complaining about a winning team that no one had any winning real expectations for this year. As far as I’m concerned this season has been a success and everything is gravy right now, even though it’s frustrating as fuck to watch sometimes.
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 20, 2009 6:53 PM PDT reply actions
Pretty much this
I don’t hate Sabean. I think he’s had one of the most unique and complex GM jobs in the game during his tenure, especially since 2000. I would certainly advocate a change for the right person, but I fear there really aren’t that many candidates out there who would do a better job. Not that it really matters, he has been with the team since they were saved in 93 in some capacity, he’s never going to be fired. That’s just not how the Giants conduct their business.
Still trying to get someone to explain to me what moves she’s had direct influence in. Other than being a great contract person, I can’t find anything.
You want to see a walk? Then go watch the mailman.
by SeeingStars on Aug 21, 2009 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions
That’s exactly it, nobody is a surefire bet, but I’d much rather take my chances with someone who might do a good job than with someone who I know isn’t a competent GM.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 6:23 AM PDT up reply actions
that’s the billion dollar question. It’s not like there are a list of unemployed super GM’s sitting by the phone waiting for the Giants to call. Be careful what you wish for. At least Sabean has made it clear he has no desire to move all the kids we love so much. A new GM with no loyalties to any players in the organization is liable to turn around and trade a Posey or a Bumgarner or even a Sandoval. Remember the fear we had at the winter meetings when we thought Timmy might get traded? A new GM we don’t know is liable to come in here and do anything. We know that Sabean will at least protect the future.
embarrassed father of over the hill Edgardo Renteria
by rxmeister on Aug 21, 2009 9:38 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
“We know that Sabean will at least protect the future.”
Like when he traded away Barnes and Alderson for a marginal bucket of crap? :\
I guess that’s the risk we take with another GM, but there’s also the potential for the other GM to do a great job, so I’ll take that opportunity over Sabean.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions
Oh knoez, he traded away 2 prospects who likely won’t have a future with the Giants, for 2 established players who can upgrade the team for not just the rest of this year but beyond that. How terrible.
There’s also the opportunity that said replacement GM does an even worse job than Sabean. Just sayin’.
If a GM
can’t find a Ryan Garko free with his breakfast cereal, then he’s not worth his salt. Freddie Sanchez is a classic type of player to be overrated by Sabes. High batting average, wrong side of the middle IF. It’s a lose-lose. If he sucks, then we traded our no. 2 pitching prospect for nothing. If he’s good (he’ll never be great) then Sabes will sign him to a 8 year 100M contract.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Ryan Garko
is a 1 WAR/year 1B who will be 28 next year.
That puts him squarely in the bottom quintile of (starting) major league first basemen. Is he better than replacement? Yes. He’s (just barely) good enough to start in the majors. He’s not average, not by a long shot. Maybe he’s not bad enough to lose his job. JT Snow was in this category most years.
He’s pretty much the Fred Lewis of 1B.
Freddie Sanchez is 31, plays a position where players are known to age quickly (2B), coming off a year of injury, and had a couple pretty good years (~4 WAR) at an age when most position players peak (27-29). He also has a multi-million dollar contract which his former team was trying to dump.
These trades are the kind where you wince and say… well, they better fucking make the playoffs NOW.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
I refuse to believe Freddy Loo is a below average player! Look at the stats, man, the stats! In all seriousness, though, if you look at Garko in terms of wins above Ishikawa, he basically gives you nothing…
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions
You’re really sticking with your K v. hits stat, aren’t you? It’s fine as long as you realize that no one else cares.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 22, 2009 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t see what is bad about a leadoff hitter that K’s? Getting out is getting out, and especially since a leadoff guy will hit without others on base often, what good does getting out on a ball put in play do compared to a K? I see a .358 career OBP, which looks like a leadoff hitter to me (especially on a team with the alternative options the Giants have)…
by Missing Barry on Aug 23, 2009 11:30 AM PDT up reply actions
yes I prefer
a leadoff hitter who weakly pops up all the time instead of striking out.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Freddy Sanchez is exactly the kind of guy to pick up for a playoff push, especially with the black hole of suck that was the Giants at 2B. Also, his former team was trying to dump his contract because his former team was the Pirates. 2 years/$11m with an $8m club option (guaranteed with 635 PA) is not a problem.
You’re exactly right about Garko though. Dime a dozen.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 22, 2009 2:55 PM PDT up reply actions
ya. I dont really like the Garko trade
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Also, Tim Lincecum
Adopted Father: Tyler Graham
by GrahamCrakalaka on Aug 22, 2009 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions
For me, that’s especially because the team traded Alderson and Barnes; sure, pitching prospects don’t always work out, but that’s a reason to keep them in numbers – why trade both?
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 22, 2009 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Only Barnes Was Traded For Garko.
Alderson was traded for Sanchez.
by giantsrainman on Aug 23, 2009 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Really?!?!?!?
Come on GRM. I am well aware of that. I’m making the point that even with two separate trades, two actual pitching prospects were traded in a short time.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 24, 2009 8:38 AM PDT up reply actions
I agree
but… Alderson seems to be too high a price to pay, for too low an increase in the probability that they make the playoffs.
It’s tough, because you want to reinforce the (unexpected) success of the team, and “strike while the iron is hot”, but I am just not sure the rest of the offense is good enough.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Both Trades Were Done For More Then Just The Last 2 Months Of 2009
Garko is under the Giants control as arb eligable thru 2012 and the Giants have a team option on Sanchez for 2010. These trades have the benifit of improving the Giants in this playoff run but the focus of these trades was more about adding quality pieces for 2010 and beyond.
by giantsrainman on Aug 24, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t see how Garko improves this team (enough to trade for him) in the upcoming years. I know the Giants haven’t been able to find first basemen, but even so.
At The Very Least He Is Above Average Against Left Handed Pitching
In my view the price the Giants paid for Garko is fine. It is the price one should expect to pay for a platoon player and it has the benifit that he just might turn out to be a league average starter. I agree that we overpaid to get Freddy Sanchez however I think the McCoven is overvaluing Scott Barnes and undervaluing ryan Garko.
by giantsrainman on Aug 24, 2009 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions
A top 10 prospect is what you would pay for a platoon first baseman? I like Garko, he’s got tiny upside. But as far as things go, a 1 WAR 1B isn’t that special and there’s a good chance the Giants already had one on their roster with Ishikawa.
Your Are Refushing To Understand Platoon Splits
The diffrence in value to the Giants of having Garko play against righties vs Ishi is indeed small but Garko has a big advantage vs Ishi against Lefties that is likely worth more then one win over a full season. You are also way to concerned about how some amatur scouts (BA, Keith Law, etc) rate a prospect. Scott Barnes is nothing speical and likely to be at best a lefty Ryan Sadowski at the MLB level then anything we might actually miss having.
by giantsrainman on Aug 24, 2009 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions
I think you’re way off here. First of all, how often does a platoon vs. LHP player even get to play? Not often enough to make any substantial difference whatsoever. Second, Barnes may or may not be overrated, but you have to look at what the market thinks of him – and that’s his trade value. You have to make your decision based on the market, even if you personally think he’s overvalued, that doesn’t change what you can get for him on the open market. We essentially traded Barnes, an alright but nothing special prospect, for a platoon guy that will play in 30% of the games? Are you serious? Those kinds of players are available for free any time you want them, losing Barnes, even if he amounts to nothing, doesn’t make it a good move. We still should have been able to get more.
by Missing Barry on Aug 24, 2009 7:43 PM PDT up reply actions
except as I pointed out elsewhere
Garko is no prize, merely a 1 WAR player. Would you be happy if the Giants traded Ishikawa for Scott Barnes? I would.
Sanchez is OK, but on the wrong side of the 30, injury prone at a position where people don’t generally age well, will be overrated due to high BA, and not particularly cheap (8M/year). His contract is better than say, Aaron Rowand’s… maybe as good as the first 2 years of Randy Winn. I don’t think it was worth Alderson - with my understanding that Alderson is not essentially Jesse Foppert)
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
The issue is that a GM worth his salt would’ve known that the Pirates were desperate to get rid of Sanchez’ contract and he could’ve been had for the salary relief and a lower level prospect. Sabean gave them salary relief and a top level propsect.
\trade fail……….once again
Why isn't Sabean held accountable for leading the Giants into many years of mediocrity???
The whole reason I called them a marginal bucket of crap is because the upgrade we’re getting from Garko and Sanchez is almost non-existant. Garko is basically as good as a player we already have in Ishikawa. Sanchez is what, hopefully a 3 win player next year, probably more likely a 2 win guy (in other words, very average)? And that’s banking on a guy on the wrong side of 30 staying productive. We gave up two highly regarded prospects for that? Really? Even if you don’t think Barnes or Alderson will turn into anything (nevermind that if they do they’re worth incredible amounts of excess value from basically playing for free), you don’t think we could have gotten more than Freddy Sanchez for that?
It’s all about opportunity cost. Another concept beyond Sabean’s grasp.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
I pretty much agree, but this:
The offense is only slightly less putrid than it was last year, but that IS an improvement.
Last year the Giants scored 640 runs. This year they’re on pace to score 645. That’s really really slight improvement. I would say that an extra 0.03 runs per game is just as putrid. The team is better because the pitching has been better, especially the bullpen.
Unfortunately, I agree with the thesis that it is almost inconceivable for this management team to win the World Series. They hired these guys who don’t think OBP is important; that’s really the organization’s philosophy. Do you really think it’s possible to overcome that with good pitching?
“Do you really think it’s possible to overcome that with good pitching?”
If we get really really really lucky and Posey is the next Mauer and Sandoval hits like Vlad in his prime while playing average to above average defense and Bumgarner becomes a force and Neal becomes a slugger and we luck out with another player….sure.
So basically….no, Sabean will not win us a World Series. He’s a terrible GM.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 6:25 AM PDT up reply actions
wow. I didn’t realize that the offense was basically on the same pace. we’ll see if that holds, but it is more watchable than last year’s pre-Panda days.
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 21, 2009 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions
actually their component stats are worse.
sOPS (relative to league):
85 in 2009
88 in 2008
They have just been more ’"clutch".
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Yeah, that’s true. I’ve seen projections based on underlying hitting stats that say the Giants were lucky to have scored as many runs as they have. That’ll send a chill up your spine.
Ah, here is an example. This says the Giants “should” have scored 465 runs, as opposed to the 482 they actually scored.
I’m not a Sabean fan, but I’m also not a torch-carrying kind of guy. I don’t see why he’s so terrible. Yeah, he’s made mistakes, but show me a perfect GM. It seems like all GM’s have good moves and bad moves.
Also, he was architect of the best run the Giants have had in a long time (1997-2004). For those that say he was propped up by Barry Bonds, I point you to 2005, 2006, and 2007. Bonds was still Bonds, but the team sucked, and it wouldn’t surprise me to find out that Sabean was being leaned on by ownership to go for broke and get Barry a ring, but the team had no assets.
Or, Sabean does suck and needs to go. I dunno. I’m just gonna sit back and watch it all unfold.
Billy Ripken is not a fuck face
“It seems like all GM’s have good moves and bad moves.”
Only tt seems like Brian Sabean has all bad moves. He inherited Bonds – if you want, go back and look at Fangraphs to check out Bonds production, subtract his wins out of what we actually accomplished, and see where we would have been (add 2 if you want to assume we replaced him with an average player instead of replacement player). We lucked out that Lincecum isn’t just good, but unbelieveable. Some credit to Sabean, but even the biggest Sabean supporter has to admit some of it was just dumb luck. Schmidt trade was good. Kent trade was good. Brian Sabean has been GM since 1997. How many hundreds of moves have we made, and we can come up with maybe 5 really good moves. For every good move he made we can easily point to like 8 stupid moves. I can accept the bad, it happens to everyone, but the fact that there’s very, very little good to offset it is ridiculous and strong evidence why Sabean is a completely and utterly incompetent GM.
by Missing Barry on Aug 20, 2009 8:56 PM PDT up reply actions
Are we talking great moves or good moves? If we’re talking great moves then hes hasn’t made many but then GM’s don’t make many great moves otherwise someone else wouldn’t do it. If we look on the other side he’s been GM for a long time and only made a couple of really bad moves.
If we’re talking just good moves then there’s been plenty, if we just look recent at current players, Winn’s been worth more than we’ve paid, Molina’s been worth more than we’ve paid, Lincecum, Sandoval, Cain, Sanchez, Wilson have all been signed and developed into good players. Now some of those aren’t very consequential, and he’s had his share of bad moves on the current roster as well, alot of which are equally inconsequential. It seems though like Sabean gets blame for every bad move he’s made but only credit for a few really great moves he makes. Over his time as GM his moves have probably been similarly balanced which is why he’s not a great or even good GM & plenty of reason to want a replacement but to say he’s imcompetent is pretty innacurate.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
“Over his time as GM his moves have probably been similarly balanced which is why he’s not a great or even good GM & plenty of reason to want a replacement but to say he’s imcompetent is pretty innacurate.”
As I stated earlier, if you look at the aggregate total of his moves, it looks bad. He pays $8M per win. That’s a 60% premium. That’s really, really, really bad and measures the net effect of all his moves. I simply don’t see how you can possibly defend Sabean’s tenure with that fact staring you in the face. Simply put, the bad moves greatly outweigh the good ones.
“It seems though like Sabean gets blame for every bad move he’s made but only credit for a few really great moves he makes”
That’s because there just aren’t very many good moves. Keep in mind he’s been GM since 1997. Of course he has some good moves. Of course you can come up with some examples. The fact that you can’t come up with many, though, doesn’t tell you someting?
Grissom, Bernard, Roberts, Rowand, Tucker, Hammonds, Mohr, Ledee, and those are just some outfielders we’ve whiffed on somewhat recently….
The bad really, really, really outweighs the good, there’s just no real argument there. Brian Sabean is absolutely incompetent. I stand by that. Bringing him back would be a disaster.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 6:35 AM PDT up reply actions
He pays $8M per win.
For hitters. Calculate that for pitchers (including the bullpen) in the past few years and you’ll get a number that’s better than just about anyone in baseball – including Zito’s contract.
Our offense sucks. Our pitching staff is the best in the majors one through twelve.
Hate on Sabean all you want, but please, be accurate.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
“Hate on Sabean all you want, but please, be accurate.”
Now, I got the number I gave out from somewhere else, so I can admit it may be wrong or I have have an incorrect interpretation for it. But I believe I am being accurate. My understanding is this is calculated from what free agents we’ve acquired and their performance, both hitters and pitchers. Essentially, given how much we’ve paid and what we’ve gotten in return, we’ve paid just over $8M per win on the free agent market. This number also excludes Zito’s contract – it’s almost $9M if you include him.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions
I'm carrying a torch...
…because I desperately want the Giants to win a World Series. At this point, nothing else really matters as much to me. And in order for them to win a World Series, I believe they are going to need a GM who is exceptional, not merely mediocre-to-competent.
I’m carrying a torch because I believe Brian Sabean was a good GM from 1996-2002. But since the end of 2002, he has become a rather poor GM. The team he put together through the end of 2002 was good enough to continue winning for another couple of years. But there’s a marked difference between the kinds of moves Sabean made from 1996-2002, and the kinds of moves he’s made (and hasn’t made) since then.
I’m carrying a torch because of the utter contempt Sabean has shown towards the very thing that could most help him become a better—dare I say—an excellent GM: that is, the use of sabermetrics and advanced statistical analysis.
I’m carrying a torch because, yes, all GM’s make mistakes, just like all hitters make outs. But just as good hitters make fewer outs, good GM’s make fewer mistakes. And just like great hitters hit more home runs, great GM’s make more smart trades, and they find ways to identify and sign more great players. In that regard, I would like the Giants to have the Joe Mauer or the Albert Pujols of GM’s. If not one of those guys, I’d settle for the Hanley Ramirez, the Chase Utley, or even the Kevin Youkilis or Ryan Braun of GM’s. Brian Sabean is more like the Coco Crisp of GM’s.
Oh yes. I am carrying a torch!!
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
it is my theory
that he was not a better GM 96-02, he was the SAME GM. He was just luckier.
What I don’t know is how MUCH of it is luck.
Is BS a solid GM who has been on a run of bad luck since 02? Is he a terrible GM who had a rabbits foot in his pocket for the first 6 years?
Probably somewhere in the middle. Another hypothesis is that he indeed WAS good (relative to the other GMs), but they got smarter (on the whole) while he did not adjust.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
That's plausible...
I think I remember your point about how lucky he was that the Ellis Burks trade turned out so well. I thought that was a really good point. So, maybe he was just lucky from ‘96-’02. I do think other GM’s have gotten smarter—about the game, and about Sabean (that he actually wasn’t the great farm system genius who built up the great Yankees farm system of the 90’s, and that he was sitting on a talentless farm system)—and Sabean hasn’t adjusted. I also think that the institution of the luxury tax has made more teams try to keep their young talent more frequently. So the mid-summer trade market and winter FA market ain’t what they used to be. So the Sabean who I think was a much more active, daring trader from ‘96-’02, bringing in Kirk Rueter, Jeff Kent, J.T. Snow, Ellis Burks, Robb Nen, and Kenny Lofton (among others), has not done much of anything since 2002. Nothing truly great, the way some of those aforementioned trades turned out.
You’re right, though. It could just be luck, or it could be changes in the trade/FA market, or a combination of both. Either way, Sabean has fallen badly short, particularly in the area of acquiring productive position players.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
“I do think other GM’s have gotten smarter”
That’s a great point I haven’t thought about that much. Maybe Sabean really was a good GM before, but the difference is it’s all relative to what other GM’s are doing. He’s still the same guy, but now his peer group has improved. It’s like shifting a LF to CF – their defensive skills are the same, but their pool of comparison players are much better…
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
I think it’s a mix of both. His peer group got better, and his luck ran out. He pretty much didn’t make any bad moves from 96-02. After this his luck changed. Much like Andrew Friedman in Tampa, who made all the right moves prior to this last off-season. Pat Burrell, and other moves have not worked out for them at all.
trading for JT Snow was a bad move that worked out.
Ditto Joe Carter, Marquis Grissom, Benito Santiago, David Bell, Russ Davis, FP Santangelo, Brent Mayne.
All of these guys had nice little years or partial years beyond which that which you would expect. I gave him a pass on a few others (Burks, Galarraga, since they were more defendable). Balance that against the Charlie Hayes’ Neifi Perez’ Rey Sanchez’ multiple Jose Vizcaino’s and it’s not hard to see the strategy going sour 2003-2009. Also not counting Kent and Schmidt – both of which were reasonable aquisitions which turned out to be gang-busters awesome.
Note that I think that with information available, signing Alfonzo and Durham in the 2002-03 offseason I thought was a very reasonable and defensible move. Durham worked out pretty good. Alfonzo, not so much.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
My only question...
Is who do you want instead? If anyone says we couldve have Ned Colletti. Two names for you, jason schmidt and Andruw jones.
And I am not sure he needs to be let go, but I’ve said it before, Bochy needs to die of gonorrhea and rot in hell. A la Dan Marino.
by Big Daddy J on Aug 20, 2009 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions
not to mention we had no patience with Aardsma but we did with Valdez?
Splain this to me!
by bradleybear on Aug 20, 2009 11:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Aardsma had a really long development track to becoming a useful reliever. Longer than most people would have endured. Longer than several teams DID endure. The Cubs, White Sox and (the brilliantly run) Red Sox all gave up him as well.
And this year he emerged because his fastball suddenly became one of the top 10 pitches in all of baseball when it was among the worst pitches in baseball the previous 2 seasons.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
I haven’t paid much attention to Aardsma since he left, so I don’t really know how he has developed. But that factoid about his fastball suggests to me that we need much larger sample sizes before we start paying attention to the “value” of one pitch or another.
Or he got a new pharmacist.
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 21, 2009 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions
Sorry, that was just a smart assy reply… I wasn’t seriously accusing him of anything.
Velocity isn’t necessarily the only benefit of PEDs. Steroids allow one to recover more quickly from physical stress and it could be that he’s improved by being ‘fresher’ on a consistent basis. Or that improved strength is allowing him to throw with the same velocity, but with an easier, more relaxed motion that results in slightly more or later movement… but I’m not an expert on the benefits of modern pharmacology, so that’s just speculation.
I’ll move on now.
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 21, 2009 9:48 AM PDT up reply actions
“but I’m not an expert on the benefits of modern pharmacology”
Ha, don’t worry, nobody out there actually knows the effects of PED’s on this stuff. Another reason the reaction to PED’s is so ridiculous….we don’t even know exactly what effect they had.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions
And I'm just gonna say...
Aardsma has been pretty solid but he also has a BB/9 of almost 5 and a WHIP of 1.20 – that’s not exactly one of the best relievers in baseball or anything.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Ned Colletti is as bad as Sabean (which is expected, since he’s Sabean’s protege).
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 6:36 AM PDT up reply actions
What does that make Barr?
You want to see a walk? Then go watch the mailman.
by SeeingStars on Aug 21, 2009 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions
At least Sabean seems to have shown some competence in the scouting side of things…
Colletti seems more in the business side of things, he was our contract negotiator when he was here. Based on all the contracts he gives out, he’s pretty piss poor at that…
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions
Colletti is bad. If not for Logan White and what he did with the Dodger farm system they’d be pretty bad. I mean I guess you can give him credit for trading for Manny, but the Red Sox gave him away because of his poor behavior. He did trade for Ethier though, and that has worked out well. But his moves in FA have almost all been bad, especially Furcal. At least he hasn’t traded away any of their young talent, oh wait that Carlos Santana guy for Casey Blake haha. Meanwhile Russell Martin has regressed into a meh player, instead of the All-Star he was.
wait a minute
I think coletti has given out the worst contracts in the game over the last three years (and thank God the Giants’ didn’t match the Dodgers’ offer for Furcal), but it’s Secret Agent Ned’s fault that Russell Martin is now average at best? Please ’splain, Rucy.
I’m saying it’s Colletti’s fault that he traded away a top Catcher prospect who could be replacing Martin by next year, but instead they didn’t want to take on any of Casey Blake’s salary and were instead willing to throw them a great prospect. Now with Martin regressing, they have no one to replace his meh performance with and ended up resigning Blake anyway.
So your argument is that Colletti should’ve seen Martin’s decline, or you didn’t like the prospect they gave away for Blake?
I see this question quite a bit...
The premise here seems to be, “Unless you personally can name the replacement of the front office type you don’t like, then you are wrong and should stop whining.” Is that close?
My answer is, I’m not in baseball. It’s not my job to know all the great minds that are scattered out of plain view throughout the front offices of MLB (and maybe a few who aren’t even in MLB right now). But I can tell you this, if I were Bill Neukom, I’d personally be talking to people in and around MLB who truly understand the game of baseball, and have shown that they know what it takes to build a winner. I’d be asking those people to tell me who are the brightest young minds—who is the next Theo Epstein? Who understands both the game, and understands and values sabermetrics and advanced statistical analysis? I’d try to identify people around the league—people you and I probably have never even heard of—but who are having solid impact right now, as some team’s assistant GM or VP of Operations, and are ready to lead a ballclub, the way Theo Epstein was ready several years ago.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
Theo Epstein is great and all but Boston’s payroll literally doubles that of the Giants. They also have a team of bright minded guys involved in the decision making process. For as much as people love to blame Sabean and give all the credit to Tidrow and Barr, you could probably cherrypick and do the same for Boston in regards to Epstein.
Boston's payroll does not literally double that of the Giants...
It’s fair to say that Boston’s payroll has been significantly higher than that of the Giants, but it has never been “literally double”.
- 2009 — Boston: $ 121,745,999 — San Francisco: $ 82,616,450
- 2008 — Boston: $ 133,390,035 — San Francisco: $ 76,594,500 — Philadelphia (WS Champs) $ 98,269,880
- 2007 — Boston: $ 143,026,214 — San Francisco: $ 90,219,056
- 2006 — Boston: $ 120,099,824 — San Francisco: $ 90,056,419 — St. Louis (WS Champs) $ 88,891,371
- 2005 — Boston: $ 123,505,125 — San Francisco: $ 90,199,500 — Chicago White Sox (WS Champs) $ 75,178,000
- 2004 — Boston: $ 127,298,500 — San Francisco: $ 82,019,166
- 2003 — Boston: $ 99,946,500 — San Francisco: $ 82,852,167 — Florida (WS Champs) $ 48,750,000
- 2002 — Boston: $ 108,366,060 — San Francisco: $ 78,299,835 — (Unknown WS Champs) $ 61,721,667
In any event, I think payroll ends up being overrated as a predictive factor in a team’s success. Certainly, having the wherewithal to spend well into the 100-millions on player salaries gives teams the luxury of making a few more mistakes that can be written off. But as shown above, with the amounts that eventual World Series champs spent in the years they won their titles, there are other important factors than just spending the most money. Developing players from within your own system, and identifying and making smart trades for players just coming into their prime are of critical importance. I think that’s why, even with team payrolls that have dwarfed even those teams with the second highest payrolls, the Yankees still have not won a World Series since 2000.
I tend to believe that whatever success a team has, ultimately falls at the feet of the GM. Likewise, when a team fails, I think the GM generally should bear the brunt of the blame over time. If a GM happens to have some bright people around him helping him succeed, I generally credit the GM for bringing those people in, for giving them room bring their gifting into play, and for listening to them and acting upon their best insights.
Some distinctions, though, between the Red Sox’ situation and the Giants: Brian Sabean has had Dick Tidrow alongside since pretty much when he himself came to the Giants. Clearly, Tidrow has always been an adjunct to Sabean. Credit goes to Sabean for maintaining a good working relationship with Tidrow all these years, and for cultivating his expertise, particularly in the area of pitching.
John Barr, however, only came to the Giants prior to the 2008 season. I’ve gotten the impression that this was a move not initiated by Sabean, but one that was forced upon him by the MGP’s. Either way, it has to be said that Sabean stuck with Matt Nerland (Dir. of Scouting), Rick Ragazzo (Dir. of Int’l Operations) and Jack Hiatt (Dir. of Player Development) for far, far too long when it was clear that the three men most responsible for scouting, drafting, signing and developing talent for the Giants were not coming even close to getting the job done. This went on, year after year, from the time Sabean was officially named the Giants’ GM in 1996, until 2008. All that time, and he did nothing about it. That, to me, is unconscionable.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
“In any event, I think payroll ends up being overrated as a predictive factor in a team’s success. "
I think you’re underrating the effect it has on winning.
http://baseballanalysts.com/MLB%20Payroll%20Efficiency,%202006-2008.png
by Missing Barry on Aug 23, 2009 11:39 AM PDT up reply actions
That is an illuminating graph. It would interesting to see one of those over a longer period of time ( in adjusted dollars or something so each year’s dollar meant the same thing).
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 23, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Good point, I haven’t seen any article/graph that does this, though. It’d be an interesting article if anyone took the time to do it.
by Missing Barry on Aug 23, 2009 3:16 PM PDT up reply actions
No, not really... (sort of OT)
I think your graph pretty much lines up with what I think about payroll and its relationship to winning. I do think that outspending one’s competitors helps a great deal. I just don’t think it’s the only predictive factor for a team winning a World Series. Otherwise, the Yankees wouldn’t be on a 10-year streak of having the top payroll in MLB, without having won a World Series in eight years. Otherwise, it’s reasonable to assume that the Giants would’ve won at least one World Series from 2002-2006, having outspent the eventual World Series champs in four of those five seasons.
Actually, I think my “failure to communicate” lies more in the inherent problems associated with using the words “overrated” and “underrated”. I bring it up because so often in sports, there are discussions and heated arguments about who is “underrated” or “overrated”. What never seems to be determined in these discussions are things like:
- Who is doing the rating?
- What are the ratings based on?
- What are the criteria?
- What are we valuing (or not valuing)?
- What are the factors?
- What is the scale?
The terms “underrated” and “overrated” seem to imply something precise and statistical, and yet meaningful statistics are rarely if ever used in these types of discussions. Usually we just try to assign precise meaning and value to each others’ words—something which generally ends up being next to impossible. The other problem with the “overrated/underrated” discussion, is that usually we’re not even talking about our own ratings. We’re talking about our perceptions of an unknown, unspecified group of people “out there”. Maybe it’s the nation’s sports fans, or it’s the nation’s sports media, or all those idiots on the East Coast. Or maybe it’s just everyone. Much of the time it’s that vague group of people with supposed knowledge and expertise (typically referred to in the phrase, “That’s what they say”), who, in our minds, actually have the knowledge and expertise of your aunt’s coffee table.
So when I said I think “payroll is overrated”, I actually haven’t specified who is doing the rating or what type of scale they are using to rate payroll as a factor. In truth, I meant people who are supposed to be knowledgeable about such things, but who, in reality, aren’t nearly as bright, as clever, or as well-read as you and me. When you say you think I’m underrating payroll’s effect on winning, you don’t really know what criteria I’m using to do my rating. And actually, I wasn’t even personally trying to provide my own rating, I was giving an assessment of the proverbial “what they think”.
So I guess I’m admitting to my own imprecise use of language, and calling myself out, along with the vast sports-discussing world for improper use of ratings—over, under and all others in between.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
Ha, long winded post for the obvious problem with calling things overrated and underrated. You seem to pretty much sum everything up, so I don’t have much to add. I have two quick points, though – first, if you think of players values in terms of WAR (not that WAR is perfect or the only way to value players, but its probably the best freely available way so I’ll use it), and you value wins at ~$4.5M, essentially every $4.5M extra a team spends should net it one more regular season win. Second point is once you get to the playoffs, it all goes out the window. All you can do is get your team into the playoffs, after that, it’s such a crapshoot that the predictive power of payroll or any other factors (even ones found to be a significant factor in playoff success) is pretty much shot.
by Missing Barry on Aug 26, 2009 2:34 PM PDT up reply actions
I wish I were more pithy...
Good points about WAR to $$ spent, and about the playoffs’ unpredictability. I agree.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
how about Theo Epstein? He’s a GM that DOES rely on advanced stats, and what did he do this offseason? While the Yankees went top of the FA food chain, he went Smoltz, Penny, Baldelli and the like, and totally fell asleep at the wheel misjudging the Yankees interest in Texiera. With all his moneyball instincts, he made a bunch of over the hill signings that looked like they were Sabean at his worst. Even Beane himself screwed up in this manner with signings like Giambi, Nomar and Cabrera and trading youth for a veteran that he couldn’t afford to keep.
embarrassed father of over the hill Edgardo Renteria
by rxmeister on Aug 21, 2009 9:53 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
He gave a pretty crappy contract to Lugo. Renteria as well!
by Lars The Wanderer on Aug 21, 2009 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions
Dice K got injured, and Ortiz fell off the cliff. It’s hard to fault Theo for those.
Also, in response to rxmeister above: he signed Penny, Smoltz, and Baldelli, but those were guys with talent and a decent risk. They don’t have to work out, but if they do you get the upside. Plus, none of those guys were really irreplaceable on the Red Sox. Plus, Baldelli has a .265/.336/.451 line as a backup OF – how is that bad?
They have the money to take the risk on those kinds of guys.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 22, 2009 3:05 PM PDT up reply actions
With a high payroll and a talented team, clubs like the Red Sox can afford free agent filler that washes out. They’ve still got Youkilis, Pedroia, Ellsbury, etc. A miss of Smoltz is no big deal.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
Exactly. Free Agency should be used to supplement a team, not to form a team.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
Bing!
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 21, 2009 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Hey, if Brian Sabean could ever bring a World Series title to San Francisco, I’d gladly allow him an off year or two after that. The fact is, Theo Epstein is largely responsible for putting together the Red Sox teams that won two World Series in four years (destroying a long-running curse in the process!!). Look at some of the instrumental players Epstein was responsible for bringing in:
2004 Team
- Kevin Millar 117 OPS+
- Mark Bellhorn 107 OPS+
- Bill Mueller 106 OPS+
- David Ortiz 145 OPS+
- Curt Schilling 150 ERA+ — 1.063 WHIP
- Keith Foulke 225 ERA+ — 0.940 WHIP
2007 Team
- Kevin Youkilis 117 OPS+
- Dustin Pedroia 112 OPS+
- Mike Lowell 124 OPS +
- J.D. Drew 105 OPS+
- David Ortiz 171 OPS+
- Jacoby Ellsbury 131 OPS+
- Josh Beckett 1.45 ERA+ — 1.141 WHIP
- Jonathan Papelbon 2.56 ERA+ — 0.771 WHIP
Someone commented that maybe Epstein was foolish dealing away Hanley Ramirez for Beckett and Lowell. I’d say that if the result was winning a World Series (and both Beckett and Lowell were instrumental in the 2007 team’s success), I’d say Epstein made a trade that he doesn’t regret in the least.
Whether Epstein used sabermetrics or dianetics, Moneyball or Magic 8 Ball, I don’t really care. He found a way to get some very good-to-great players on the Red Sox roster, partly through developing and utilizing a good farm system, and partly through some very sharp trading and FA signing. And yes, partly through having a healthy enough budget to make it all work. Most important, he brought two World Series championships to Boston. As far as I’m concerned, that makes him a great GM.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
All of those players were paid like mediocre filler and have gone on to play like... mediocre filler
Not reasonable to compare them to players like Renteria and Molina, who are being paid to be average players and are in fact sinkholes of awful.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Also, the Red Sox are very likely to make the playoffs this season
Much likelier than the Giants, for instance.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Bob Brenly?
"I would've been here sooner but I had to shake the Veleasels"
by The Gene Hackman on Aug 21, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions
nevermind
"I would've been here sooner but I had to shake the Veleasels"
by The Gene Hackman on Aug 21, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions
Sorry but that’s a huge over-reaction to a bad game. Also, i don’t see the point of cherry picking and saying he should be fired for the poor offense as you could equally argue that he should be extended for the great pitching. It’s the total package that matters and Sabean should be judged as such.
With regards to the offense then yes, it’s horrible and needs improving but what would your solutions be? We’ve invested in position players on the farm but they take time to bring results. We’ve tried signing free-agents but Sabean’s criticised for not giving young players a chance instead. We’ve tried giving young players a chance (over half our team) as people have asked for but when they bring mixed results management are criticised for not having a good enough team. We’ve tried trading for players but people moan as we’ve given up young players and the players we’ve acquired haven’t been here long enough to have an effect.
I’m not defending Sabean, far from it as i have my issues with him, but i think you’re oversimpifying situations & expecting it to be easy to overhaul a poor offense like that without overpaying free agents, giving up prospects in trades or being patient for young players to come up.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
“We’ve tried signing free-agents”
How about we sign good free agents, instead of the horrible piece of shit free agents Sabean chooses to go after? How about instead of paying way above market rates for these players, we don’t overpay them and we pay them what the market commands?
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 6:38 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t know if you’ve noticed but over the past 4 years (probably 5) the free agent market has been mediocre, especially as far as good hitters are concerned. Torri Hunter was considered as being a guy who was on the decline, and has in the field, but his hitting has been pretty good since signing with Anaheim, even so 5 years 90 mill was a lot for him. Andruw Jones was a disaster. Adam Dunn is a DH playing in the NL, and would have been terrible for a team who’s premium should be defense considering the pitching they have and light hitting. Alfonso Soriano (a guy the Giants pursued) has turned into one of the biggest albatrosses in baseball with his awful play and large contract. Carlos Lee can hit, but he can’t field and is also grossly overpaid. He is another guy the Giants pursued but to no avail.
These are the big name guys who have been available in the past few winters, all of them all-stars at some point, but none of them are guys you should be spending franchise caliber player money on, especially in FA. All these guys end up getting ABOVE market rates and being overpaid because of essentially being on the open market, and because they get paid not just for their hopeful future performance but for being established players who in the past were good or great players.
but it's Sabean's fault that he MUST go to FA market for his hitters
because he has produced 2 in the last 15 years. The FA market is NEVER good, and whomever signs someone ALWAYS overpays (by definitiion, since no one else would offer what the signing team would)
Furthermore, he has not even produced PITCHERS in the last 15 years to compensate – other than the current studs (Lincecum, Cain, Romo, Wilson). I mean, there have been a few pitchers SF has developed that panned out after trading.
The bottom line is that he never bothered to develop the farm system AT ALL until his team was terrible enough to get high draft picks.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
Well most teams that have had a strong farm system was because of being able to draft high. IE Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Milwaukee, Colorado, Florida. All the other teams that have been good have a much higher budget for their farm system IE Anaheim, NY, Boston, LA. I do agree though that the Giants should have been spending much more on player development in the past when they were good. That was about the dumbest thing they could have done. Instead of punting picks and signing other team’s type A FA’s, we should have been trying to keep our picks and sign other team’s FA’s. Their new shift for the time being seems to be for good though.
All the other teams that have been good have a much higher budget for their farm system IE Anaheim, NY, Boston, LA.
But wasn’t that Sabean’s call? What was to stop him from going to MacGowan from 1997-2004 and advising him to divert some of the big bucks they were allocating to signing FAs into drafting and signing amateur players that fell to in our laps due to the perceived group think that they wanted too much money or couldn’t be bought out of a college committment? My view was that he didn’t do it because he didn’t value these draftees highly enough, didn’t trust his/the org’s ability to find and develop the top talent, and didn’t have the patience and foresight to choose this route.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
That’s an awful lot of speculating you are making there. I’m guessing it had a lot to do with everyone in the organization trying to capitalize on having a small window to win a world series with the best player in the game pushing 40 on two bad knees.
That might have been the case after 2002 with a 38 year old Bonds, but how does that explain the years between 1997-2002? Also, it shows Sabean’s short-sightedness and over-reliance on veterans that he didn’t have the ability to change the minds of “everyone in the organization” to go with a more balanced approach. It also doesn’t explain the crappy FA signings of 2006-2007 when it was obvious that Bonds wasn’t going to be able to strap us on his back and take us to the playoffs, no matter how many aging vets Sabes signed.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
They did draft players from 97 to 02, some of whom became part of the Giants contending teams in the early part of the 00’s.
1997: Jason Grilli drafted 4th overall, traded for Livan Hernandez. 2nd round pick Scott Linebrink, who was traded for Doug Henry.
1998: Tony Torcato, 1st round pick who flamed out due to a shoulder injury, but always hit pretty well in the minors. Nate Bump, another 1st round pick who was used with Grilli to acquire Hernandez. and then a host of failed high picks in the 1st and 2nd round following that like Arturo McDowell (who actually walked quite a bit, but couldn’t hit), Chris Jones, Jeff Urban, Eli Serrano, Chris Magruder (who made the majors and had a .376 OBP in the minors), Ryan Vogelsong, Cody Ransom and Erasmo Ramirez.
1999: Kurt Ainsworth, Jerome Williams were both 1st round picks. Jack Taschner in the 2nd round, and Sean McGowan in 3rd round, who was a decent prospect but who flamed out quickly upon reaching the upper minors.
2000: Boof Bonser, Lance Niekro were the top 2 picks, Erick Threets 10th and Jason Ellison 22nd.
2001: Brad Hennessey, Noah Lowry, Jesse Foppert and Todd Linden were all picked in the 1st round/supplemental. Julian Benavidez in the third round, who had a great rookie campaign but quickly flamed out shortly afterwords.
2002: Matt Cain, Fred Lewis, Dan Ortmeier and Kevin Correia were their first 4 picks.
Some hits, some meh, and some major misses. That 98 draft where the Giants had 8 picks in the top 100, and didn’t get a single impact player was a total and complete failure. But as you can see the next two times they had multiple first rounders in 99 and 2001, the Giants did much better.
So it’s not like they weren’t trying to draft talent, they just failed to find the right players. Guys either got hurt and failed to develop or they simply weren’t as good as they hoped and didn’t develop. The part where the Giants fucked up royally is post 2004, where they punted draft picks and tried to keep winning with Barry by adding old veterans around him when they should have been packing up and rebuilding. But considering all the pressure to win at that time, one can see why they went with that course, even if it was a risky proposition.
It may not have been Sabean’s call, but it sure is in his job description as the highest level baseball person in the organization to help direct the organization’s strategy towards the most effective way to win games. He failed to do that.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 6:01 PM PDT up reply actions
worst excuse in the history of excuses
and exhibit A in why Sabean is a mediocre GM at best. Even with a relatively high payroll (top 10 I think), utter sacrifice of $$ spend on the farm system, and the best player in history, he still failed. And he failed because the free-agents he aquired were not that good. He did not spend the extra 60-70M wisely.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
How would we stack up against STL or ATL?
Those seem like the most comparable teams to the Giants in terms of budget and draft position; neither has had a lot of top-10 picks in the last decade or so.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
Stl has had some pretty bad systems in that time frame until the last 2 years. Atlanta has mostly always had a top farm system, but they’re also the model franchise when it comes to player development. But at the same time in recent years their ML payroll has taken big cut backs and because of it they saw under .500 baseball. This year they went and spent money in FA on pitching and low and behold are doing a lot better.
It’s definitely easy to go out and pick guys overpaid on the free agent market. I could just as easily shown you Orlando Hudson. Good free agents are out there. Every signing has a risk of being a mistake, they happen to the best teams, I understand that. Unfortunately, I look through Sabean’s track records, and all I see are mistakes. We never end up on the good side of a Carlos Pena signing, or Orlando Hudson, or even Adam Dunn, who will probably be worth only slightly more than his contract. As others have noted, everyone knows that about the FA market, you overpay for players. So then why we were trying to build out team through the FA market? Maybe because Sabean’s direction reflected his complete lack of knowledge on what makes a winning team…
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions
Over-react, Moi??
The truth is, I’ve wanted Sabean replaced—and have said so publicly (even posting here to that effect) for four years now. I haven’t done so all the time, partly because I’m generally too busy, and partly because I don’t want to be tiresome and get Grant’s 19th century “beating-a-dead-horse” gif dropped on me. But yesterday I had some free time and decided I wanted to express some of my thoughts. …OK, a lot of my thoughts.
And I am judging the total package. The total package is made up of solid pitching and woeful offense. I think if Sabean only had someone in his front office who understood hitting the way Dick Tidrow evidently understands pitching, he might be able to regain my trust. But he doesn’t, and I don’t think he ever will, because Brian Sabean thinks he already knows all about what makes a good hitter. And like I said before, the hitters he has repeatedly brought in—I mean, time after time after time—have ranged, "from ‘somewhat OK’, to ‘meh’, to ‘downright abysmal’".
I agree that the job is difficult and complicated. But I keep seeing some of the better GM’s around the league making smart trades and picking the right FA’s to sign, all while developing farm systems that yield hitters who can hit for power, and who know how to take a pitch or two while doing so. Then I look at Brian Sabean, and he never seems to learn, nor does he even seem interested in learning. Consequently, he keeps making the same stupid mistakes that smart GM’s don’t make, at with nearly the same frequency. After a while, I just start thinking, “I want a smart GM”.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
Sabean must not be re-signed
I’m not a Sabean hater. I beleive that he often did a good job in the late 90s and early part of this decade putting together teams that were always contending for titles. I’m also not calling for his immediate dismissal. It makes no sense to fire him now, since there’s little that he, or his successor, could do now to change the fortunes of the team for the rest of this year. However, I do strongly feel that he must not be re-signed in the offseason.
As I said above, I do give Sabean credit for our success from 1997-2004. But, while he was engineering that success he was also sowing the seeds for the bad years of 2005-08, by neglecting the draft and player development and relying too much on the FA signings of aging veterans and marginal players. Nowadays he just seems to be stuck in the last century. Sure, he mouths platitiudes about smart hitting, defense and speed, but when push comes to shove he always seems to fall back on his cherished vets and marginal players. Just look how he’s jerked around our young talent (other than Pablo) this year, and the 2 questionable deals that he made before the trade deadline.
We need new and dynamic blood in the front office to take us into the new decade with a new vision. Just as even the best managers will wear out their welcome with players and need to be replaced, GM’s can also get stale and set in their ways when they’ve been in one place too long. Sabean already holds the record for the longest tenure of any GM is SF Giants’ history.
Remember how Bill Walsh came to SF in the late 70’s and quickly turned around a horrible 49er franchise by bringing in smart new people and dynamic new ideas? Remember how Theo Epstein took over the staid and conservative BoSox front office and turned it around before leading them to their first 2 WS titles in 100 years? That’s the type of GM we should hire to make us one of the top echelon teams in MLB. We have a new owner who has good ideas and is receptive to implementing dynamic new ideas, so let’s take advantage of it.
There are talented people in and around baseball that can be that type of GM – we don’t have to just go after the tired old usual suspects. Let me throw out a name of a guy that I think should be seriously considered – Logan White of the Dodgers. By all reports he’s the main guy responsible for all of the Dodgers great drafts since 2004. He has a great eye for talent, and he worked in the scouting departments of the Mariners, O’s, and Padres for 16 years before joining the Dodgers in 2004. He’s in his late 40s, and has been the Asst. GM for the Dodgers for the past year. An added benefit to hiring White would be to take away a major asset from our hated rival. That’s just one suggestion, but there are more than a few other good candidates. We also have a strong scouting/drafting team in place now, so that should be a good foundation while the new GM gets up to speed.
Whatever Neukom decides, he needs to realize that re-signing Sabean is just not a smart short-term or long-term move. I just have no confidence that Sabean can re-invent himself to be the type of GM that we need. Sabean continues to make terrible decisons in FA signings. Picking up Affeldt, Howry, Medders and Miller this year in no way makes up for the debacles that were/are Renteria, Benitez, Rowand, Zito, Alfonzo, Perez, Benard, Roberts, Tucker, etc. (I’m aware that he has had other good FA signings during his tenure, but the ledger is firmly skewed to the negative when looked at in its entirety). He remains too much in love with signing and trading for gritty veterans that are on the downside of their careers. And the contracts that he signs them to are almost always long-term and above market value.
Sabean also continually chooses the wrong managers for our team, and if he is re-signed then we’re likely to get several more years of Bruce Bochy (a guy who is also in love with aging, gritty vets). Sabean also shows no patience or skill for developing the young position players in our system. During his tenure the Giants have only drafted/signed and developed one postion player of any consequence – Pablo Sandoval (although Buster Posey seems to be on a very good track). I will also give him credit for developing Pedro Feliz, though he was drafted a few years before Sabean arrived on the scene. We just can’t ever thrive as a team with a horrendous record like that.
I’ll leave you with the one main thought that allows me to live with games like today’s. The good news about the Giants’ recent string of poor play is that if the Giants continue to stumble and fail down the stretch, especially Garko and F. Sanchez, then it’s much more likely that Sabean and Bochy will not be re-signed.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
by Fla-Giant on Aug 21, 2009 1:18 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
+1
I agree with everything you’ve said here. I love the points about Bill Walsh and Theo Epstein. I like the idea of Logan White. And I’m actually not really a Sabean-hater either. I mean, I don’t want the man to suffer or be treated badly. He’s served the Giants organization—and even the fans—well at times. He deserves a lot of respect and appreciation for what he did from 1996-2002, at least, and I’ve said the same things myself many times.
I’ll also admit that I was going for a bit of polemic with the title of my post—a touch of the visceral in hopes of getting read…or maybe even green. And maybe I’m even naive enough to think that a lot of people read this site, and that maybe some of what is written here could somehow move the general consensus over just a smidge in the direction of replacing Sabean with someone with the ability to get the Giants to the Promised Land.
The only other thing I’ll add is that I’d be totally fine with the Giants waiting until the off-season to decide not to re-sign Sabean. And I certainly realize that with the team having a pretty good year this year, and with Sabean’s long history with the team, it would probably be completely unreasonable to just summarily fire the man right now. So, yes, looking for change to come this off-season is probably the best we can hope for at this point.
But here’s the thing: replacing Sabean now would give the new Giants GM time to evaluate the entire Giants organization, from major and minor league players, to managers and coaches, to the entire front office operation. It would give him/her a chance to be ready, come November and December, to jump into the FA and trade market, and begin making the necessary moves that will rebuild the offense into one that actually can score runs, and can take the Giants from being a scrappy-but-ultimately-punchless sometime contender, to a real force in the National League and a genuine aspirant to a World Series ring.
But yeah, like I said…completely unreasonable. You’re right. I can wait a couple more months.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
I just woke up and was still having my coffee when I posted that. A cookie would have gone nicely with my coffee.
by Lars The Wanderer on Aug 21, 2009 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions
I don’t know, couldn’t the same be said of this entire site? Or am I missing part of your meaning?
I mean, OK, I’ll admit that I’m, umm, a touch wordy. But I honestly didn’t think there was a cap on how long a fan post should be. Or subsequent comments on threads. Are the mods going to come for me now? /waits for jponry and the rest of the Who…maybe even Sting as the Ace Face or suicidal Jimmy…
I’ve been thinking about this stuff for a long, long time. A lot of what I see from this team really bothers me. So, for the past day or so, as I’ve had some free time on my hands, the time seemed good to really put some of my thoughts together in a cogent, hopefully somewhat persuasive way. My problem is this: I know that brevity is the soul of wit, but I’m having a hard time doing it very well. But I still think I have some worthwhile things to say, and I thought others might think so too.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
Nah, we aren’t picking on you or OGC. He’s just, um, quite verbose when it comes to all things Sabean. I figured he would be in this thread posting.
Wait—Is ogc also a real person? Is that obsessivegiantscompulsive? Or is it just an acronym for GRM?
And, hey…where has takeagiantstepandgo been in all of this?
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
Should have been just ‘O’.
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 21, 2009 12:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Most of the posts in this thread are tl;dr...
…I mean, a thread about Sabean in August with a cumulative running word count in excess of fifteen kabillion? :^I
Perhaps I’ve glossed over any counters to this but, FWIW, all factors must be weighed and applied. Yes, the loss yesterday was frustrating, and the blame should ultimately lay on Sabean’s shoulders based on what I read from the OP. Accordingly, shouldn’t the jubilation you feel when you see Lincecum or Pablo on the field be heaped upon him as well?
You can’t simply dismiss the other side of the argument and achieve the desired results.
Stupid is as Ruben Rivera does...
BTW...
Baron, if you read this, thanks for cluing me in on “tl;dr”. I use it obsessively. When I’m reading for class, it’s often the first thing I think when I get to a lengthy case. (Don’t think the professor would appreciate it as an answer, however.)
Stupid is as Ruben Rivera does...
OK, I'll bite...
I’m guessing that the ‘tl’ part means “too long”. What does ‘dr’ mean? “Didn’t read”?
Re: posting this in August: I know it’s not going to happen now, but I’d definitely advocate it if it could be done in an appropriate way. Replacing Sabean now would give the new Giants GM time to evaluate the entire Giants organization, and be ready, come the fall, to jump into the FA and trade market, and begin making the necessary moves that will rebuild the offense into one that actually can score runs, and can make the Giants into a genuine aspirant to a World Series ring.
I would definitely say I have been weighing and applying all factors. And I don’t even care about yesterday’s loss anymore. I’ve wanted Sabean replaced for more than four years now, because ultimately, even with all of his good points, I have zero confidence that the Giants will ever win a World Series with Brian Sabean running things. And all my points, reasoning and history can be viewed above, when you have a good day-and-a-half to kill. If you don’t want to do that, that’s cool. I don’t blame you. I know I’m wordy. I’m sorry for that. I really do try to edit myself and reign myself in a little, but…it’s just hard.
/waits for “tl;dr” reply…
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
oops... And here I've tried so hard to avoid mistakes
Anyway, you’re right. Thanks for reading and for letting me know.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
tl;dr = "too long, didn't read"
I’m not saying I necessarily disagree with you. It’s just that, from what I read, it seems that there’s a tendency to blame Sabean for the bad, while dismissing the good as luck, chance, etc.
If you’re gonna give an argument for dismissing Sabean, I want the alternative proposal; why he shouldn’t receive due credit for what the Giants have acheived; how you think an ideal GM would have acted in Sabean’s situation; etc. Maybe you’ve done that already; I dunno.
Then again, if you did present all those points, it would be “tl;dr”.
Stupid is as Ruben Rivera does...
some great stuff here, but pretty much a waste. If Sabean wasn’t fired off of the bad years, he won’t get fired after a good one.
embarrassed father of over the hill Edgardo Renteria
by rxmeister on Aug 21, 2009 10:00 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Nah, it’s a different situation, with a new boss and Sabean’s contract expiring. I think it’s more likely than not that he won’t be back.
And who knows how that went down?
Neukom might’ve been saying “Peter, we’d be stupid to dump Sabean”, or he might have said “Well, okay, but he better get us to the postseason by then.” WE just don’t know.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
by EliminateMe on Aug 21, 2009 11:44 AM PDT up reply actions
I think it’s wrong to speculate that he wants to dump Sabean. Especially when all that’s been said since Neukom took over is that things won’t be run much if any differently than how Magowan ran things. Neukom just wanted a bigger emphasis on player development, something that was starting to occur before he even took over.
Really? I find that quite unlikely
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 22, 2009 3:10 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah...(sigh)
You’re probably right. But I wanted to say these things anyway.
Why couldn't McCovey have hit the ball just three feet higher??
I’ve said many times, Sabean has been here since the new ownership group took over in the front office in some capacity, if they didn’t fire him before he’s never going to be fired. Plus, that’s not really how the Giants seem to want to conduct their business. They like to talk about “family” and are pretty big on just that. If anything Sabean will “retire” and then be working as part of the ownership and front office advising the new GM, whoever that ends up being down the line.
TL;DR
Hey, if thoughtful, detailed discussion is too wearisome for someone to labor their reading-aloud-to-themselves way through, that is their problem. MY problem is that their bad case of ADD might keep someone else, who has a thoughtful, detailed discussion to put forth, from putting it forth. I learn a lot from reading this blog, which is why I am willing to pass my eyes over all the froth and nonsense about fast food, rock groups, and other OT topics. So if X or Y has an objection to long responses, why don’t they just STFU about it, and skip the responses in silence? There are some of us who welcome serious discussions.
tl;dr
No I’m kidding. I agree with you 100% (and I have definitely posted my share of dissertations here)
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 22, 2009 3:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Just to add general support to the overall tenor of the discussion: imagine just how bad the offense would be if Pablo wasn’t having the season he’s having and was just sort of a meh player. We all looked at the lineup at the start of the season and said that the starters were going to have to hold the opposing teams to two runs or less, and that’s been unfortunately true.
I wasn’t really counting on Panda breaking out, but just about all the vets are about what one have feared (Rent’s been worse than that). Sabean’s been kind of fortunate at Panda’s offense, since if he were playing at a meh level, the offense would be world-historically bad.
by Duelling Brandos on Aug 21, 2009 11:16 AM PDT reply actions
facinating isn't it
that interesting hitters on the good side of 26 can surprise you sometimes…
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
LF Conundrum/Rosterbating for 2010
Sabean might still be here, he might not but the Giants need to get a new LF because I don’t think Lewis, Bowker or Velez are good enough as corner outfielders should either have power, excellent speed to steal bases or plays great defense (all 3 would be great but they are far and few in between). Lewis hasn’t shown much pop, plays underwhelming defense and has speed but not a good base stealer. Bowker has power but K’s a whole lot, not a base stealer at all and plays under average LF. Velez has little power, good speed but again not a good base stealer and plays way under average defense. Sigh.
I checked the 2009 FA list for LF and only Bay and Holliday stands out. Either will command huge contracts but I think the Giants have around maybe $30-$35 million to play with Winn, Johnson, Lowry, Molina and Roberts off the books. Now let me rosterbate a little bit…
1) 2B Sanchez
2) C Posey (after they Wieterized him till May)
3) 3B Sandoval
4) LF HolliBay
5) RF Schierholtz (Interchangeable with Posey in batting order)
6) 1B Garko
7) CF Rowand
8) SS Renteria (Maybe Uribe if he’s back )
Now that looks like a real offense as Freddy, likely Buster, Panda and Schierholtz can hit around .300. HolliBay, Panda, Garko and possibly Rowand brings the pop.
SP is already solid but likely add a new 5th starter; bullpen is also solid with Howry likely been replaced. $35 million is a lot to spend on a LF, 5th starter, veteran RP plus 2-3 cheap backups and raises for current players with some money leftover for the future Lincecum//Cain fund.
Win the inning.
This is the best-looking and most reasonable roster for 2010 I have seen. I am very much down with this as long as Holliday or Bay don’t cost a bazillion dollars.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Aug 21, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions
Dream on
There’s no way that Bay or Holliday end up in SF. With all 3 big-market teams Boston, the Yankees, and the Angels in need of a corner OF and having mucho money to spend, there’s no way that we can/should compete with them for Bay and Holliday. In fact, it will always be difficult for us to sign a big-name FA hitter because of the perceived unfairness of AT&T Park. We should instead concentrate on looking for the lower-cost hidden gems in the FA market, and stockpiling pitchers to use as bait in trades for young hitters that are already under contract for several years.
There are good deals to be had at the low end of the FA market each year. Just look at Ibanez, Hudson, Abreu, and Branyan from this year’s class. Of course, that’s where a new GM would come in handy, because Sabean appears to be genetically unable to find FA hitters without overpaying them and/or giving them too many years.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Ibanez didn’t come cheap.
Abreu wouldn’t have played well here, just a guess. I mean defensively and his pop would be greatly diminished as he’s a gap to gap hitter.
Sure, Abreu’s HR’s and SLG would be down, but wouldn’t you love his OBP and real power starting in LF this year? His D is certainly no worse the Flew’s or Velez’s.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
real power? He would have considerably less here. It would be like having Randy Winn with less defense but who walks a lot more.
Essentially what we already have in Fred Lewis.
He would be a huge improvement over Lewis, even if Lewis were hitting as good as he was last year. Fred Lewis has never had a .400 OBP, and Abreu also has much more power. Even given his despicable defense, he would be a very significant upgrade.
In hindsight, he would have been a great pickup, considering the low price. However, I, like most around here, didn’t think this team would contend with or without him. So it seemed like a really bad idea to add a 35-year-old outfielder who would block a bunch of semi-prospects who needed to be evaluated to see whether any of them could play a useful role on a future contending team. As it turns out, the team is contending, and the playoffs would be a much more realistic possibility with Abreu in the lineup. Oh well.
Calling jponry
His defense is much, much worse than Lewis or Velez. He was one of the worst defensive players in the majors last season, 25 runs below average.
“In fact, it will always be difficult for us to sign a big-name FA hitter because of the perceived unfairness of AT&T Park”
But AT&T is no longer unfair to hitters at all. A good GM would talk to the agents about park factors and about how their player will actually do well (unless he’s a lefty pull HR hitter) in our park. The truth is out there. The agent has the players ear, and is smart enough to understand this stuff, even if the player isn’t.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions
sabean
will likely see the need to spend the $$ on a (another) 4th starter. my guess is 3 yr and $28 mil for john garland. ( or doug fricking davis).
by giantdonkey on Aug 21, 2009 12:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Welcome to the Jason Marquis era
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Sadly, Boston or NYY can spend some insane amount of money to get Bay. Holliday, on the other hand, will likely not choose an AL team except maybe BOS and NYY (again). Also, it’s Holliday’s last big contract so he’ll take the most money for sure.
If neither is a Giant in 2010, that’s fine. Save the money for 2011 instead of settling for an average player, but I hope they let Posey play in 2010 because I don’t think he needs more at-bats in Fresno given that he played 3 seasons of college ball and has not disappointed in the minor leagues.
Win the inning.
by Scooter Ellis on Aug 21, 2009 12:44 PM PDT up reply actions
I’ll be pretty disappointed if Posey doesn’t come up around June 1 of next season. (That’s about the earliest they can bring him up without risking his becoming a Super 2.) I don’t see how he has a heckuva lot more to prove in the minors.
It’s too early to set ourselves up for an expectation like that. There might be several reasons why it would make no sense to call up Buster next year.
1. He goes into a prolonged slump with the glove and/or bat down in Fresno.
2. The catcher that starts for us in April has a gangbuster season with the bat.
3. The Giants have a horrible start to the season and are so far down in the standings that it would make no sense to call him up and start his arb clock just to play for a team going nowhere.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Number 2 should never happen...
…because it makes no sense for the Giants to sign a legitimate starting catcher rather than a placeholder, and a placeholder on a hot streak is still just a placeholder (see also: Velez, Eugenio).
Number one is possible, and number three is just too depressing to contemplate.
Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, on the Curacao-SF express (via Arizona).
Never say never
I agree that it’s unlikely, but we can catch lightning in a bottle. Just look at guys like David Ortiz, Carlos Pena, Benito Santiago, and Jeff Kent. They all jump-started their careers, or rehabilitated them, from out of nowhere with a change of scenery and a new chance.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I agree with EliminateMe that #2 could only happen as a result of profound stupidity on the part of the organization, unless we think there’s a chance that Henry Blanco is gonna get on some monster hot streak.
- should also not matter. As long as they bring him up around June 1, his playing time in 2010 will have no effect on his arb clock.
- is the only one of these that could realistically happen, and (like I said) I would be pretty disappointed if that happened.
Stupid auto-format
The first time it says “1.” should say “#3”
Who comes up with the auto-format rules? Are they actually useful to anyone? They don’t do anything for me except occasionally unexpectedly garbling my posts.
I guess I gotta be more religious about preview.
3 does matter, because his arb clock doesn’t start at all if he stays in the minors all season. I believe that if the Giants have a crappy record next year and they are nowhere near competing for the playoffs then it will be best to keep Buster down in AAA to let him get as much games behind the plate as possible. Look how much Matt Wieters has struggled with the bat and behind the plate this year in Baltimore. How stupid was it for their GM to rush him up this year when the O’s were obviously going nowhere, and he was struggling in AAA. Sure, they waited long enough so that he wouldn’t be a super 2, but if they had kept him in AAA for another year then they would have saved one year in arb eligibilty.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Wieters’ arb eligibility was not affected at all by his coming up this year (I’m assuming they brought him up late enough that that’s the case), assuming he was going to start the year next year in the majors. Either way, he won’t be arb eligible until after the 2012 season.
That’s the same thing the Giants should do with Posey.
That's just wrong
Go back and read the articles in May. The O’s and several other teams specifically waited to bring up prospects unitl after the first 8 weeks of the season so that they couldn’t be super 2’s. Of course, the teams wouldn’t officially admit this, but everybody with half a brain knew what they were doing. If Wieters had been called up 3 weeks earlier, and if the O’s never sent him back to the minors, then he would be arb-eligible after the 2010 season.
I also remember reading an article a few months ago that if Timmeh had been left in Fresno just 2 weeks longer he wouldn’t be a super 2 and be eligible for a $10M arb award this offseason. Hopefully the Giants are smart enough to judge things like that this time around with Posey.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
No
If he had been called up earlier and then wound up (at the end of the 2011 season) in the top 17% in service time of players with more than two but less than three years of service, then he would be eligible for arbitration. Historically that cutoff has been about 2 years, 128 days of service. So if he’d been called up, say, May 1, he would have been well over that 128 days in 2009, so then if he were in the majors for all of 2010 and 2011 he would almost certainly be eligible for arb then. But since he wasn’t, he probably (not definitely; they cut it pretty close) won’t be eligible for arb until after the 2012 season. Note that’s the same as if he were in the minors for all of this year and started next year in the majors.
The official explanation is here and an explanation specific to Wieters is here. This past year, the Super 2 with the least service time had two years, 140 days of service, so the O’s are most likely safe on Wieters, but we won’t know for sure until after the 2011 season.
My basic problem with letting Sabean go is that when the front office discussed his future with the team during his last contract negotiation after the 2007 season, according to news reports at the time, they basically asked him to do several specific things:
1) reorganize the front office and hire additional help
2) build the farm system up
3) add pieces to the major league team that don’t hurt the team’s long-term prospects
4) build an interesting and contending team
He’s basically done all 4 successfully. How can you justify firing him now when you opted not to in 2007? It’s punishing him for things you failed to punish him for earlier instead of rewarding him for doing pretty much exactly what you asked him to do.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
Simple
There’s a new sherrif in town named Neukom, and he wants to bring his own guy in to run the team. It happens all the time in sports and business. If Sabean asks for a specific reason then point to the horrendous signings of Rowand and Renteria, as well as his failure to make a good trade at the deadline this year in order to significantly improve our offense for the stretch drive, and not give up too much of our future in return.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Yeah, I suppose you could. You might get a bad reputation, though – especially in an industry as small in insular as baseball.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
Are you kidding?
1. Nobody in baseball except a moron is going to hold something like that against Neukom. Neukom is a brand new owner, and thus he will be cut slack to bring in his own people. GM’s and managers are fired all the time while still under contract, on the whim of the owner. In this case Neukom has the utmost excuse – Sabean is not his guy, he didn’t hire him, he never promised to re-sign him after this season, and he doesn’t have a contract with the Giants anymore.
2. Even the worst owners always have people lining up at their doors to be GM’s and managers. You’re right, baseball is a small world. There are only 30 GM jobs available and there’s at least 1,000 guys wanting those jobs, no matter what the reputation of the owner – they’ll put up with a lot to get their dream job. Look how many people still try to suck up to Al Davis just to work for him. You can’t have a worse reputation than Al Davis.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I guess I see the Giants situation a bit differently
Instead of an owner who completely changed, you just have a new managing general partner who still represents the same people who renewed Sabean after 2007. That’s why I think it would be a bit rough to not renew him when the same ownership group that laid down the conditions for him in 2007 is still in place – just represented by Neukom instead of Magowan.
That said, Neukom could decide after a year on the job that the org needs to go in a completely different direction and not renew Sabean – you’re right, that does happen all the time. But I just don’t believe that Neukom will be that radically different from Magowan given that they both act as representatives of the same people.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
Fair enough
I just think that going from being in the mix to actually running the whole show gives you a lot of leeway. Two years ago he could have just gone along with the majority so as not to rock the boat.
On an entirely different subject, and I will tie this into this thread later on, I believe you were the one in my Billy Wagner post that claimed a team can’t offer arb to a player when they don’t pick up their option year. Well Wagner just got traded to the BoSox and the last thing that was holding up him waiving his no-trade was that he wanted Boston to agree to not exercise his $8M option for next year and then to not offer him arb in the offseason.
Boston agreed to the 1st, but not the 2nd, so they will have a shot at getting 1 or 2 comp picks for him in next year’s draft if he ends up signing elsewhere. Here’s the link to the story (the 3rd paragraph is the key, so I’ll highlight it below):
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4421684
The Red Sox agreed to not pick up Wagner’s option for 2010, but they have retained the right to offer arbitration, which means that they still could get two draft picks for him if he departs as a free agent, a source told ESPN The Magazine’s Buster Olney
Now, I tie this into this “dump Sabean” thread, because Sabes could have claimed Wagner away from Boston and worked out a trade with the Mets sooner than today. Wagner would have come in very handy in our pen the last 3 games, but Sabes just has no imagination for manipulating the system like this. Even if Wagner refused to come here, we still would have succeeded in blocking him from going to several other NL contenders (including the Rox) and any team in the AL that we might have faced in the World Series.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
said sheriff was a deputy back under the old sheriff. New sheriff signed off on Renteria….and it’s not like he’s here for a long time. 1 more year is tolerable. Also a lot of sabermetric analysis had Renteria REBOUNDING this year. I’m just glad we didn’t bite on Furcal.
Rowand was a bad signing yes, that is to be sure. But it could have been worse. IE Gary Mathews Jr or Juan Pierre.
Or Soriano, who’s looking god awful now, and he’s making Zito money.
By all accounts Sabean did try to get Matthews, though. So I’m not sure he should get a pass on that one.
Oh I wasn’t giving him a pass at all, just saying we could be stuck with even WORSE contracts than we already have.
that's your argument?
Brian Sabean: Not responsible for more than 2 of the top (bottom?) 10 worst contracts in MLB!
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
1. Beyond what you think of how Renteria performed this year, Sabean overpaid for him by a large amount. He took a gamble and signed him at the very beginning of the FA signing season, but he misjudged how much the FA market was going to collapse this year, for all but the elite superstars.
2. How do you know Neuk signed off on the Renteria contract? I’m guessing that he told Sabean how much money he could spend in total for FA’s, and then stood back and watched what he did. He’s not the kind of owner that’s going to micro-manage a GM’s every move, and he surely yields to Sabean’s expertise in baseball matters. I’m sure that he did OK the final amount of money that Renteria got, but only after Sabes assured him it was a good deal. Now, if Sabes had wanted to get in on the C.C. or Manny sweepstakes then I’m sure that Neuk would have been heavily involved in those negotiations. Sabean has a huge problem justifying his signing of Renteria, no matter what metrics or gut-feelings he used, because he has a bad history of handing out horrible multi-year contracts for way too much money. His failures far outweigh his successes, and sadly, ever since Neukom has been on the scene his big money FA signings have all been failures (Rowand, Renteria, and Johnson).
3. It’s not that we didn’t bite on Gary Matthews, or Pierre, or Furcal, rather they turned Sabean down. That’s not a good point for Sabes to be bringing up when he tries to convince Neukom to keep him around.
4. What makes you think that Neuk wants to sign Sabean, or any other GM, for only 1 year?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I don’t think he’s necessarily done all 4 successfully. The coaching staff certainly leaves a lot to be desired, so I wouldn’t say (1) is a success. (3) could be argued either way, it depends how backbreaking you consider Rowand’s contract.
STEVE HOLM! refuses to be the odd man out.
by UnleashTheGore on Aug 21, 2009 4:52 PM PDT up reply actions
“add pieces to the major league team that don’t hurt the team’s long-term prospects”
I consider losing Barnes and Alderson as hurting the team’s long-term prospects.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 6:05 PM PDT up reply actions
probable blockquote fail.
I want Brian Sabean to be fired. Tonight.
Funny, that’s almost the exact same thing I’ve said every single day for the last 4+ years.
Nate's RISP w/2 Outs OPS: 1.242
Bengie's RISP w/2 Outs OPS: 0.452
No blockquote fail!! It’s not exactly rocket science but I still am impressed it actually worked.
Nate's RISP w/2 Outs OPS: 1.242
Bengie's RISP w/2 Outs OPS: 0.452
by cybermaldonado on Aug 21, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Brian Sabean
Remember when the Giants won 100 games? Brian Sabean was the GM. Remember when the Gyros were 6 outs away from a World Series title? Brian Sabean was the G.M. Remember when Barry Bonds was on the team? I’m pretty sure that was the reason the Giants were a lot better in the past. Now Barry Bonds is not on the team and Brian Sabean is the GM. I don’t have much logic here but I mostly agree with you. Also, read the italics below!
Brian Sabean is akin to a treatable form of cancer... just get rid of it before it kills you
This is really getting boring!
I know, I know… if I don’t like the blog don’t read it… blah blah blah.
Some of you the write on this site are brilliant, well informed… real baseball fans. You know your stuff, but the fast majority of you are like whining brats. Fire Sabean Fire Fire Fire HIM NOW!!!!! Good god people don’t you know anything about management… especially the Giants F.O.. One guy, in this case Sabean, isn’t the sole decision maker… especially when it involves big bucks.
You can go to every team and they have made massive mistakes; the Yankees, who’ve won 25 WS… have made big ones… real big ones. Somebody mentioned the Angels, well until 2002 they won little to nothing, because they couldn’t draft to save their lives.
We really don’t know the politics that go on in these F.O.’s. I would bet, based on my experience in management (not in baseball), that Brian Sabean is a team player (going on along with the company line) or he would have been fired long long long ago.
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