Goofing around with Excel. Giants' WAR composition by players.
over 2 years ago
xanthan
61 comments
1 recs |
Email
PrintComments
Interesting
Nice work. I’m not quite surprised that Freddy Sanchez is already more valuable than Edgar but disappointing nonetheless.
Interesting
Steve Holm has been almost as valuable as Renteria this year… that’s not a good thing
Adopted brother of Jason Jarvis.
He’s on pace for +1 or more wins. For a non-closer reliever, that’s quite good. The leverage index in which a bullpen pitcher pitches is huge to his value and that’s mostly a statement on how the manager uses his bullpen. For example, Affeldt’s leverage index is something like 1.50 this season. That’s above average, but Wilson is pushing something like a 2.2-2.3 leverage index.
I would have that Scott would have been bunking with Edgar and poor Steve Holm
Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard
by SoFa King Mike on Aug 20, 2009 2:58 PM PDT up reply actions
what would happen to the graph if edgar had a negative WAR???
by TimLincecumIsGod on Aug 20, 2009 2:26 PM PDT reply actions
Tommy Joseph is the Dingerzball Wizard
by SoFa King Mike on Aug 20, 2009 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
WAR is calculated from FIP, which is why the discrepancy is so large when their IP and ERA are relatively close. Tim has actually underperformed his peripherals a little, while Cain has overperformed his by a large margin. If you wanted to look at what they provided to the team in a more “tangible” sense, their WPA’s are 3.75 to 3.48, with Timmy in the lead.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
Matt is having one of the luckiest seasons I’ve ever seen. People are going to be pissed when he posts another ~3.7 ERA next year.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
Yeah, but I won’t begrudge Matt Cain a little bit of luck.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Aug 21, 2009 12:03 AM PDT up reply actions
True
If anyone deserved it, it’s him.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
Also
Pitchers’ WPA is pretty useless.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
Eh, useless is a very wrong word to use here. It’s not very good, sure, but it’s very useful to look at to give you an idea as to the context a player’s performance has been in. Take Howry for example. He’s pitching well by FIP, but he’s hurt the Giants way more than he’s helped this season. A quick glance at WPA shows this (-1.19). His poor performance has come at important times. Obviously WPA isn’t a measure of true ability, is very luck dependent (in Howry’s case he’s been unlucky that the bad has come at important times and the good at not so important times), and doesn’t do anything with regards to fielding…but in terms of the actual impact of a players performance on the Giants W-L record, a quick glance at WPA can tell you a lot…
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 6:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Well
It doesn’t even do that, because it fails to separate pitching from defense in any way. Pitcher comes in with a runner on first, walks two batters, then gives up 3 line drives that are all caught on diving plays from the fielders, and he gets a really high WPA. Different pitcher comes in in the same spot, gets two strike outs, then gives up a fly ball that ends up as an RBI double because the CF lost it in the sun, and he gets a really low WPA.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
And that’s why we ignore small sample sizes.
by Missing Barry on Aug 23, 2009 7:26 PM PDT up reply actions
And as I've said many times...
Look how the money is spent according to that.
Poor decisions basically wasted the Giants window of having 3-all star caliber players at replacement prices. Those 3 players make up 5% of our payroll and over 40% of our production above replacement. Just sad what 80 million buys you these days
I shocked that you would see it that way, as opposed to, “Jesus, look at the production we are getting out of those cheap, homegrown players, great job scouting and developing Giants brass!”
by FluLikeSymptoms on Aug 20, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions
it's both
Great job to the scouting and player development departments. Terrible, terrible job by whoever is allocating team payroll
by NeifiChicken on Aug 20, 2009 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions
if we were a team like the Marlins operating on a 30-40 million dollar payroll, my reaction would have be contentment. But since we are a big market team with money and a 85-90 million dollar payroll, I just can’t help but shake my head that nearly 90% of our payroll is put into 30-40% of the team’s value above replacement.
We should be an elite team with the type’s of years our cheap young 3 are having
by NeifiChicken on Aug 20, 2009 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Let's Take A Closer Look At Your Complaint
In today’s environment 1 WAR on the free agent market is expected to cost $4.5M. The season is now 3/4’s complete.
The position players the Giants signed (or re-signed) as free agents have contirbuted a combined 7.1WAR (Rowand 1.9, Winn 1.7, Torres 1.3, Uribe 1.3, Molina 1.1, Renteria +.2, and Aurilia -.4) which should project out to 9.5 WAR by the time the season ends. This 9.5 WAR should cost the Giants $42.75M (at $4.5M per WAR) but the combined salaries of these players in 2009 is only $38.15M (Rowand $12M, Renteria $9M, Winn $8.25M, Molina $6.5M, Uribe $1M, Aurilia $1M, and Torres $.4M).
Looks to me like your complaint is dead wrong with regards to the position players and the decider of how to spend this money has done just fine with them. Yes, the Zito deal still sucks (but not a much this year as we all feared) and the gamble on Randy Johnson has not paid off. That said most thought the Johnson gamble was a good gamble and I at least place blame for the Zito deal on Magowan who I believe was fired for this deal (I don’t buy that he decided to retire – he was told to retire).
by giantsrainman on Aug 20, 2009 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions
Probably
Although, I’m curious how this coming offseason will go.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
a few issues...
I don’t know if I buy the 9.5 WAR projection. Rowand’s WAR has gone has trended negatively recently and could continue to do so given his regression. Torres isn’t on the club anymore, Uribe’s production is probably headed downwards as well (along with his PT), Molina could say stagnant, and Renteria…well…the main thread says what we need.
I think all told, we’ll be looking at 7.5-8 WAR from this group, which is worth 36 million by your standard (which I think is an inflated one, especially given recent market trends). On top of that, over 1/8 of this value is coming from Torres, who has that WAR because of possibly inflated UZR numbers (as xanthan stated).
On top of that, you omit Dave Roberts 6 million dollar salary garnering us 0 WAR. And the Zito copout is an overstated claim, if Sabean was good at his job, he could have easily talked PMG down or gotten a better price. I don’t think anyone’s offers even came close.
by NeifiChicken on Aug 20, 2009 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Torres (and Aurilia too) Will Be Back September 1st.
I find your projection that the season total for these seven will end up under 8 WAR to be rediculous enough that I have to offer you a bet on it. If these 7 can’t get their combined WAR for 2009 above 8 I will buy you bleacher tickets for opening day next year if you agree to do the same for me if they can get their combined WAR above 9. Are you chicken or are you man enough to stand behind your projections.
by giantsrainman on Aug 20, 2009 5:09 PM PDT up reply actions
That’s going to be tough with rapiers.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
No, there’s a fire. After somebody sets it, they swordfight.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Aug 21, 2009 12:04 AM PDT up reply actions
haha, good stuff
But I will not take such a bet because if I did, on some level I’d be rooting for these guys to fail, which I don’t want to happen.
Either way, it sort of goes against the entire point of my point. A difference of the 1-1.5 WAR is not that significant when we’re talking about how the money is spent. That’s basically 4-7 million dollars difference, and if we were only overspending by that much on our 80+ million non Lincecum-Cain-Sandoval dollars, we’d be in good shape.
As a gentlemen’s agreement, I will certainly admit I am wrong if this group exceeds 8 WAR, and I certainly hope to be wrong
by NeifiChicken on Aug 20, 2009 8:53 PM PDT up reply actions
Or you could look at it this way. A team of replacement level players should win about 44 games. At the rate they’re going, Lincecum, Cain, J Sanchez, Wilson and Pablo are on pace to give us about 23 WAR while costing a grand total of $4.6M this season. We are spending $82.6M this season. That leaves us $78M to spend on FA’s. That should give us just over 17 WAR. That brings us to 84 wins alone. Throw in Schierholtz, Lewis and Velez and Ishikawa and you get another 4.5 wins (projecting them at the pace they’ve set this season), and they all cost just over $400K a piece. Our cheap bullpen pieces (Martinez, Valdez, Romo, Sadowski) project out to add another 2 wins to the team at minimum wage. This team should win 90-91 games. We are only on pace to win 88.
Then you look at the fact that we gave up two of our top pitching prospects and the fact that wins didn’t even command $4.5M this last offseason when we signed a number of players and it looks worse. Also keep in mind we have two substantial contracts on our books, Zito’s and Rowand’s, that are the kind of long term deal where they should outperform their contract at the beginning (which is now) and underperform it at the end, and it looks even worse. Essentially we should be getting better than market value production out of them right now.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 7:21 AM PDT up reply actions
I forgot to mention this. I don’t know if I buy that the Giants should be anywhere near as bad as their projections think we should be, but they do good work over at BtB, and I think it’s a good indication that we probably have been lucky just to be on pace to win 88 games.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 7:28 AM PDT up reply actions
Two replies to myself, not good. I need to gather all my thoughts before posting…
Their expected winning % for us would put us at 74 wis.
by Missing Barry on Aug 21, 2009 7:29 AM PDT up reply actions
What interests me about GRM’s numbers is that the bargain production all derives from Torres and Uribe. If you take those two out (and Aurilia, to be fair) and restrict the list to the guys who are making real money, you get 6.5 wins (projecting out from 4.9) for $35.75 million. Not so good. Throw in Dave Roberts and it gets worse. Throw in the pitchers and forget about it.
I think Sabean has a fairly good eye for vets who can contribute cheaply, but not so much for high-priced veteran talent. The vets he has splurged on have been only a tiny bit better than the ones he got a bargain-basement prices.
Velez > Cracker Nuts
"I would've been here sooner but I had to shake the Veleasels"
by The Gene Hackman on Aug 20, 2009 3:03 PM PDT reply actions
My nuts take offense to that.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Aug 20, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Who does Ryan have to Gark
to get him a slice of yo custard pie?
"I would've been here sooner but I had to shake the Veleasels"
by The Gene Hackman on Aug 20, 2009 4:11 PM PDT reply actions
For some reason, I don’t think he was on the team leaderboard page. He’s been worth 1.1 total wins this year, so probably .2-ish with the Giants.
More like -0.2
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
Yup
I do like his approach at the plate, but I imagine I’m just seeing a McD’s cheeseburger after being without food for years.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
Is this just a regular Saltine?
Utter frustration and futility.
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 20, 2009 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions
Ryan Garko has actually be worth -.2 WAR Thus Far With The Giants
That said, I fully expect him to produce at simular levels to what he did in Cleveland for the final 41 games.
by giantsrainman on Aug 20, 2009 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions
It is, in a roundabout way
It’s a chart of the Giants, and xanthan hates the Giants.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
