Billy Wagner on waivers - should the Giants claim him?
It's being reported that the Mets have placed their recently reactivated closer Billy Wagner on waivers for the purpose of trying to trade him to a contender for the stretch drive. He's currently owed about $2.6M for the rest of the year, then you can buy out his 2010 option year for $1M, or exercise it and get him for only $8M in 2010 - very reasonable amount for a potential top closer.
The question I have is, should the Giants claim him? I say yes - for the following reasons:
1. To block him from going to another NL playoff race competitor above us in the standings that would be likely to claim him (Fodgers, Phillies, and Cards), or belwo us that might trade for him if he clears waivers (Marlins and Cubs). Not to mention possible AL world series foes that would likely want him (Angels, Detroit, Tampa).
2. Worse case the Mets go insane and allow us to have him for nothing in return - a la the White Sox and Alex Rios. He'd be a possible replacement for Howry out of our pen down the stretch, and we'd only owe him about $2.6M. Then we just exercise his $8M option in the offseason and wait for a good deal to trade him then or sometime before the 2010 trade deadline. A fully recovered Billy Wagner would be a bargain at only $8M - certain to garner something good from a team that needs a closer (Cubs, Marlins, Rays, ...). Or keep him in the pen and play him all year then offer him arb and get 2 comp picks when some team signs him as a FA. He also gives us a temporary backup plan if we decide to trade Brain Wilson.
3. If for some reason (unable to come back from the injury) we didn't want to keep him it would only cost an extra $1M to buy out the 2010 option year. We'd be out only $3.6M, which is not much considering the possible big reward we could get.
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I’d only give up a bag of balls. But that’s not the point, since I doubt that the Mets are dumb enough to give him away for next to nothing – they’ve got to be hoping for something good in return. The point is we block him from the Fodgers and Phillies who are both desperate for bullpen help, and possibly from the Cards. He’s unlikely to get past the Marlins and the Cubs, who both have a claim that would beat ours, but just in case we should still claim him.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
We definately should claim him...
If we could get him even better because we need a lefty in the pen anyways. I’ve heard a lot of noise that the Cubs are all over him though and they would have first crack.
I dunno, I’m not sure Cubs ownership would let Hendry claim him, they’ve been real tight on money as it is, and if the Mets dump the rest of his salary on him, they’re out of luck. We don’t have to exercise the option for next year, either – it’s a 1MM buyout
Also known to haunt as theghostoftravisdenker and theaccidentalghostofsergioromo.
by theghostofjasonellison on Aug 19, 2009 8:45 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes
our Bullpen would be pretty unreal with a healthy Billy Wagner added to the mix.
Yes, I’d be very down with this (as long as he’d be willing to not close.)
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
There is a shortage of lefties in the pen. Not really, but Affeldt is a lonely southpaw
Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)
Pass
Most pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery seem to take in the neighborhood of 1 year to return to the bigs, and then another 6-12 months to really recover to the full extent of their abilities pre-injury. Often the first phase of their return is characterized by diminished velocity, and when you consider that Wagner’s two assets are velocity and a slider that puts a ton of stress on his elbow, I think the odds of a “healthy” or “fully-recovered” Wagner for September are pretty long.
Furthermore, even if he beats the odds and comes back at or near his recent skill level (which isn’t quite as dominant as the younger Wagner we might all be dreaming about), the cost/benefit seems kind of nuts to me. A minimum of $3.6 million for at most 20 IP down the stretch, plus possible work in the postseason? I agree that $3.6 million isn’t a ton of money in the grand scheme of things, but 20 innings isn’t a lot of return for your investment, even if these are 20 high-leverage innings and even if he throws zeroes the whole way (which would seem pretty unlikely).
As for his value in 2010 — I’m really not sure that he would be able to command $8 million on the open market as a 39-year old reliever coming off of major arm surgery. With a number of teams facing financial difficulties at the moment, I’d say it’s a toss-up whether Wagner’s option is picked up for next year by anyone other than an exceptionally wealthy team. I’m not 100% convinced either way, but at least as far as the Giants are concerned, I would lean towards it being a bad idea for them to add him to next year’s roster at that price.
"I'm not sure what the hell charisma is, but I have the feeling it's Willie Mays." --Ted Kluszewski
by Rick Parker (Lewis) Can't Lose on Aug 19, 2009 9:59 PM PDT reply actions
I'm kind of surprised that he didn't try to make a comeback as a righty while his left arm was healing.
And by “surprised” I mean “it would have been really, really cool in a brilliantly unorthodox way.”
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Several thoughts
I understand why you don’t want him on our team, but don’t you still think it would be a good idea to put in a claim as a block? As I wrote above, I can’t see the Mets just giving him away for nothing in return except salary relief, so if we were the claimer with the #1 option then the Mets would just have to pull him off waivers and keep him until the offseason. Isn’t that a good risk to take to keep him away from the Cards, Phillies and Fodgers?
The other thing that you’re not considering is that reports have him throwing without pain and quite well already (about 12 months since his surgery). Ken Rosenthal reported on Tuesday:
Mets left-hander Billy Wagner, throwing 93 to 94 mph on his rehabilitation assignment at Class A, could be a reasonable gamble for a contender in search of relief help.
The Mets are confident enough in his recovery that they put him on the waiver wire with the idea of getting some bodies back for him in a trade – and they plan to showcase him pitching in the majors within days so he can’t be trash. Does that change your mind at all about his value for next year after 4 more months of rest and rehab?
As for his contract option, as long as he’s healthy and appears to be close to regaining form, I believe that whatever team owns him at the end of this season will surely exercise it and pay him the $8M for 2010. I say this because it’s the cheapest way to get something in return for him. If you buy out his option for $1M he becomes a FA. You must then offer him arb in order to get comp picks if he signs with another team. If he accepts arb then the minimum salary he will be awarded is 80% of $10.5M (his 2009 salary) – which comes to $8.4M. So, you’ve spent $9.4M on him for the right to use him or trade him, when you could have just exercised his option and paid him only $8M total. If you don’t trade him in 2010, then you’re almost assured of getting 2 comp picks for him when he leaves as a FA.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
i’m pretty sure they put him on waivers to just dump his salary should he get claimed
by TimLincecumIsGod on Aug 19, 2009 11:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Very doubtful
The Mets know that they can get 2 comp draft next year merely by paying him $1M in the offseason, offering him arb, and then letting him sign elsewhere as a FA.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
There’s very little chance of any team getting draft picks for him as they’d be stupid to offer him arbitration. No team wants to pay a 39 year old reliever who’s been out all year that much money, especially in this market, and there’s no chance that he’d decline if it were offered.
To be honest i doubt any team will claim him as it simply isn’t worth the money he’ll cost and if they did i’m sure the Mets would let him go for next to nothing.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
You don't get compensation draft picks if you decline an option year.
You also forfeit the right to offer a player arbitration if you decline an option year.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
Do you have a source on that?
I couldn’t find it anywhere when I looked previously.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
I don't
Not handy. But the rationalle behind it is that the team already has a chance to retain the player and refused it, so they don’t get a second chance to do so.
An example is Renteria (who would have qualified because of his monster 2007 season), who had his 2009 option declined by Detroit. We signed him in particular because there was no draft pick compensation attached to the player.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
But I distinctly remember reading at the time (from a reputable source – not a blog post) that the Tigers didn’t offer him arb – not that they couldn’t. Maybe the reporter just didn’t understand the rules and was assuming.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
This report casts big doubt on your claim
This report by Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports clearly states that the BoSox agreed not to exercise Wagner’s $8M option at the end of the year, but they wouldn’t guarantee not to offer him arb. So, you see, a team can buy out an option and still retain the right to offer arb to the player to ensure some comp picks if he leaves as a FA.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9978650/Source:-Wagner-invokes-no-trade-clause,-stays-in-N.Y
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
no thanks
the mets would hand him to anyone who claimed him, he’s just making too much money. i don’t think any team is gonna claim him at this point. i’d be ok with waiting till he cleared waivers and making the mets take on a significant portion of whats left of his contract but i wouldnt be ok with taking on that much salary when we already have a very good bullpen and he’s anything but a sure thing.
by TimLincecumIsGod on Aug 19, 2009 11:24 PM PDT reply actions
He won't clear waivers
There’s at least one team in the whole league that will want him if his arm is fine, and they won’t want to risk him clearing waivers and allowing the Mets to negotiate with any team. That’s doesn’t even begin to get into the team(s) that will want to claim him as a blocking move to keep him from going to a competitor. Even if he did clear waivers, the Mets would want some player(s) back in return for paying part of his salary. Don’t forget, the Mets can get 2 comp draft picks for him (since he’s a type A) simply by paying him $1M at the end of this season and then offering him arb. That’s a bargain for them.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
The strategy of claiming a player on waivers to block a rival from obtaining him doesn’t happen anymore. Not after Randy Myers. Remember a few years ago, when Manny Ramirez passed through waivers unclaimed? He was worth a helluva lot more then than Mssr. Wagner is now.
Hard as it is to believe after endless years of Brian Sabean, but teams are much smarter now.
You're simply wrong
Just because Manny Ramirez cleared waivers at one point in his career doesn’t prove that teams don’t use waiver claims to block any more.
Teams do still put in waiver claims to block other teams from getting a much-needed weapon. We just rarely hear about it because the team that tried to slip him through the waiver wire then just ends up quietly pulling him back. Until recently, the general public almost never knew about players that got pulled back from the waiver wire. Only the players that cleared waivers and were publicly being shopped were reported on.
Here’s an example of a block that occurred just recently as reported by Jason Stark:
For whom the Bell toils: The Padres talked to a bunch of clubs about closer Heath Bell before the trade deadline. But you can scratch Bell’s name off your August shopping lists. We’re hearing that Bell hit the waiver wire this past weekend and got claimed by multiple teams — whereupon the Padres pulled him back immediately.
The Padres wouldn’t have immediately pulled him back if at least one of the claiming teams had a low option number and was just blocking Bell with no intention of working out a fair trade with the Padres.
The Rays and Rangers can’t afford Roy Halladay right now, but if he were put on the waiver wire now they would surely claim him just to block him from going to the BoSox, Angels, and Yanks. Those 3 teams would surely try to work out a trade package for Halladay
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Yeah, sorry. I should clarify.
Teams no longer put claims on players with prohibitively expensive contracts as gamesmanship ploys.
I agree with you on that
I guess where we don’t agree is that you would put Wagner in the category of prohibitively expensive contracts?
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
They will not get picks for him. If they offer him arb, he will probably accept it because no one is going to give up a pick for a 39 year old reliever coming off TJ surgery.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Check your math
He’s only just turned 38, his birthday was 3 weeks ago, DOB = 7/25/1971. The arb offer would be at the end of 2010, not this season, so teams will have a whole season to evaluate his recovery. As I wrote above, why offer him arb at the end of this season, when his option year contract is only $8M?
If he pitches well next year then he will certainly get muti-year offers in the offseason to be a closer for some needy team – every year there are multiple teams looking for closers. Just look right now at the Cubs, Marlins, Rays, Angels, Phillies, Yankees, BoSox and Dodgers – they would all kill to have a healthy Billy Wagner on their team right now.
And before you cite his age again, just remember that Randy Johnson, Mariano Rivera, Nolan Ryan, Gary Maddux, John Smoltz, Jamie Moyer, and other pitchers have all been signed to muti-year, multi-million $$$ salaries at the age of 39 or older.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Other than Moyer...
…who is not a power pitcher and who has gotten by on an inexplicable assortment of dookie for most of his career, everyone you just mentioned are future HOFers. Billy Wagner does not fit that profile. Also, Ryan, Rivera and Maddux all had exemplary health records. As far as similarity scores go, there has never been anyone even remotely resembling Randy Johnson’s career trajectory, so we can toss him out. That leaves Smoltz, who is a perfect example of how no one can ever see the edge of the cliff until someone falls over it.
Has there ever been a pitcher who has returned from TJ surgery at Wagner’s age and been successful? None spring to mind for me. I’m not saying he can’t do it — just that it isn’t worth the Giants’ money to find out. And I’ll still feel that way even if Wagner beats the odds and finds (unlikely) success somewhere else, because with several sinkholes already on the payroll, I just don’t see how we have the flexibility to take such an expensive gamble.
"I'm not sure what the hell charisma is, but I have the feeling it's Willie Mays." --Ted Kluszewski
by Rick Parker (Lewis) Can't Lose on Aug 20, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Yes, but how many of them cost a draft pick?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Maddux did
He was a 40 year old type B FA when he signed with the Pads before the 2007 season. The Fodgers got a supplemental pick after the 1st round as compensation.
Oh. and I wrote Gary Maddux above – obviously it should be Greg – I was mixing his name up with the former Giant great OF Garry Maddox.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
No thanks
I’ve no interest in paying a 39 year old reliever, who’s coming off a major injury & hasn’t pitched all year, $3.6M for a month and a halfs worth of work. Especially when we don’t really need him as our pen has been doing fine all year.
I’m pretty sure no other team is going to be interested either and the Mets will have to eat some salary to move him once he clears waivers.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
He's only 38
DOB = 7/25/1971. I assume you were just parroting jponry from above.
If he’s pitching in the minors as well as has been reported in multiple outlets at this early stage of his rehab, then I strongly believe that at least one team among the Phillies, Dodgers, Rays, Red Sox, Angels and Yankees will claim him. If that does happen, and the claiming team only wants to do the deal as a straight salary dump, then I think the Mets will pull him back off the wire. They will then exercise his option for $8M in 2010 and wait to trade him next season, or let him go the FA route and pick up 2 comp picks in the 2011 draft.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
Sure
As long the Giants don’t give up any players (other than maybe Rich Aurilia) for him.
I would think of it as more of a defensive move. Dodgers bullpen is burnt so they could definitely use him and I would prefer to see their pitching staff continue to crumble rather than improve by signing Wagner
Billy Wagner has said he can’t pitch more than once every three days at the most. His original plan was to pitch once a week. He’s basically coming back for himself and doesn’t want the pace to be rushed. He shouldn’t even think of going to a contender and having his timetable alterred by some team’s needs. He should stay with the Mets, who are out of it and can bring him along at his own pace and continue his rehab in the offseason.
embarrassed father of over the hill Edgardo Renteria
It's not his decision
The Mets are the ones that own his contract and are deciding to try to get some return for him now so that they don’t have to struggle with the decison of buying out his contract year in the offseason.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
he has a no trade clause, which he can use. Even on waivers
I R 5
by say hey nation on Aug 20, 2009 8:08 AM PDT up reply actions
He just pitched a second ago – he was hitting 92-94 on his fastball, amped up to 96 for a strikeout (granted, I don’t know how accurate the radar gun was) but he looked pretty good against the Braves
Also known to haunt as theghostoftravisdenker and theaccidentalghostofsergioromo.
by theghostofjasonellison on Aug 20, 2009 6:20 PM PDT reply actions
Red Sox claim Wagner!
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/08/billy-wagner-claimed-on-waivers.html
OK all you haters and deniers, I expect an apology post within 8 hours from everybody that scoffed at, and ridiculed, my steadfast avowal that Wagner would be claimed by at least one team. You know who you are.
LOL. Seriously though, Sabean claimed Sheffield but not Wagner – can anybody figure that guy out? I also can’t believe that the Fodgers and Phils didn’t put in a claim what with the way Torre is burning through thier pen and how much Lidge has sucked this year. Sabean took a real chance by not putting in a claim to block Wagner. I would be real pissed if he had gone to LA or Phillie and ended up being the difference in us getting into the playoffs. Oh well, it will be interesting to see if the Mets will just do a salary dump if the Sox refuse compensation. Also, it will be interesting to see what the Sox might give up for him if they do want him badly enough.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
The BoSox are #4 from the bottom
No, you have to understand the waiver system. It works on a reverse-order of standings rule, but it goes from one league to another. Therefore, since Wagner plays in the NL, all the teams in the NL (in reverse ordr) have precedence over any team in the AL – even if they have a better record than the AL team.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
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