Lincecum NL MVP?
I was kind of shocked that Fangraphs WAR has him ahead of Pujols... turns out you have to account for the non-linearity of greatness to squeeze an extra win out of Timmeh.
BBTF discussion here: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/jonah_keri_now_about_that_national_league_mvp_race/
5 months ago
zenbitz
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I blame this post for what happened today
by superk1ng on Aug 18, 2009 5:33 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
but was it...
my fanpost?
or the link on BTF that lead me to it?
or the original Keri blog on it?
or the fact that fangraphs WAR has Lincecum > Pujols?
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
by zenbitz on Aug 19, 2009 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
fugging jinx!
Psycho killer, qu'est-ce que c'est?
by shikantaza on Aug 18, 2009 5:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Pitchers should almost never win the MVP.
If ever.
They have their own award. And don’t impact nearly as many games as a guy playing 162 games can.
by Hobbes2d on Aug 18, 2009 9:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I can see the argument in terms of already having their own award, but as for impact over a season I think a starting pitcher can be just as valuable as any position player, especially when talking about the top few.
by DesertFox on Aug 18, 2009 10:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In a single season maybe, but I’d take a Pujols or Mauer or Longoria etc over and over and over again.
A starter gets to impact at most 35 games in a 162 game season. They are at a far greater risk of injury every single time they throw the ball. Having a franchise player like some of the guys I named above is better for your time, even with how important pitching is. It’s pretty rare for elite level position players to play for teams that never contend or reach the postseason consistently. An elite level pitcher can be stuck in mediocrity forever because the circumstances of his success are placed far more on his defense, and the rest of his team’s bullpen and offense. While the hitter can take things into his hands 4 times a game, and for the entire season. His risk to injury is far far lower as well.
There really should be no pitchers who win the MVP unless the other candidates are mediocre. And that’s hardly ever the case.
by Hobbes2d on Aug 18, 2009 10:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What does injury risk have to do with deciding who has been more valuable?
I think the MVP award should be for position players only, but I have no doubt that a pitcher can be (and often is) the actual most valuable player.
by Evan on Aug 19, 2009 6:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Only 35 games, sure.
But how many at bats?
/devil’s advocate
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Aug 19, 2009 7:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
for the games they play in, a pitcher has waaay more influence over the outcome than a position player.
Please hit better, Randy Winn.
by oldjacket on Aug 19, 2009 8:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not disagreeing with your overall point, but an elite starter who consistently goes deep into games can have a positive impact on the team’s bullpen, whereas a starter who consistently goes 4 or 5 or innings will tax the bullpen more over the course of the season. I’m not sure how to measure the impact, or how great an impact it truly is, but it is probably more than the number of starts a pitcher makes, though not as many as an elite position player who plays 150+ games. It’s the reason “innings eaters” can still provide value.
Regardless, as great as Lincecum has been, Pujols is clearly the MVP this year in the NL probably followed by Mark Reynolds and Hanley Ramirez, Prince Fielder and Panda, though it wouldn’t surprise me to see Timmy finish high in the voting.
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 19, 2009 10:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Plus, Tim faced over 900 batters last year and he’s on pace for even more than that this year. He has an effect on 900-1000 batter PA each season. When you account for defense, I think it’s comparable to the contribution by a hitter at the plate.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Aug 19, 2009 10:24 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s generally not, because the hitter has more effect on any given PA than a pitcher does. They both control K’s, BB’s, and GB%, but HR’s are mostly controlled by the hitter. That’s why the difference between the best and worst “HR pitchers” is at most 20-25 HR’s per 900 PA’s, while the difference between the best and worst HR hitters is something like 70 HR’s per 900 PA’s, sometimes more. Batters also have more control over BABIP.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Aug 19, 2009 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, I don’t think it’s equal of course (especially since hitters do play defense as well), but I think that acting as though there’s no way a pitcher can approach a hitter in value is a bit off.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Aug 19, 2009 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree, I’m just saying that you can’t just compare PA’s. Tango researched and showed that the game is about 50% hitting, 37% pitching, 13% fielding, FWIW. Sounds about right.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Aug 19, 2009 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ZENBITS IS NOT A GENIUS!
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Aug 18, 2009 10:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You can't spell MVP
without P-U-J-H-O-S
Proud father of Dallas Mcpherson. If you have any information leading to the arrest of the person responsible for the kidnapping of my son please contact me immediately. Reward if found!
by The Thrill on Aug 18, 2009 10:46 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think we can kiss off both the Cy Young and the MVP
after today, as if the MVP was ever really a possibility. Cy Young winners don’t pitch like this over consecutive starts like both LIncecum and Cain have done recently. Sure, they’re entitled to be human, and I appreciate their great seasons this year. But neither of these guys are holding up well of late.
Kruk, Kuip, and other commentators on KNBR were saying just before the Reds’ series before the last homestand that the Giants’ fortunes would rise and fall on Sanchez and Zito because Lincecum and Cain were steady and sure this year. They were all wrong.
What’s hurt the Giants of late has been the top two guys, as well as the crappy offense Brian Sabean delivered this year. Again, Tim and Matt have held the team on their shoulders this year, but they’ve lost command and focus at a time when the team could least afford it, coinciding with Jeremy Affeldt’s recent crashing.
There is a cumulative effect of knowing you can’t give up more than two runs a game because your offense sucks and your bullpen is overrated. We’re seeing those effects now.
Responsible for the last great homegrown Giants team.
by Al Rosen on Aug 18, 2009 10:47 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think this significantly hurts his chances at either. To say that Cy Young winners don’t pitch like this over consecutive starts sounds really weird to me. So if he had done it with a good start in between, that would be okay? The totals are still pretty darn jaw dropping, and wins aside, nobody else is very close in the Cy Young race.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Aug 18, 2009 11:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
His last start before this was really good
This is just a completely fallacy-based conversation
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Aug 19, 2009 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A very good point. TBPH, I wasn’t even thinking about his last start when I responded. Forgot it was the 8 2/3, 7K almost win.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Aug 19, 2009 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Last time he didn’t pitch into the 7th inning was in his second start of the season. That’s 23 starts ago.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Aug 19, 2009 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the guy's full of wow that way
it’s almost… freakish
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Aug 19, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol are you serious?
Lincecum is still far and away the best choice for the Cy. You want to know how “horrible” he’d been in August so far before today? 1.52 ERA. This was his first BAD start in about a month. Yeah. He hasn’t gotten a win in a few starts (oh god a three start winless streak, what shall we do??) but it’s hardly his fault.
I seriously just don’t get how you can think that about Tim, that he’s not holding up well as of late. Have you even watched him recently? His three starts before this last one (the team WON this game btw)
8 IP, 0 ER, team wins
7 IP, 3 R/2 ER, team loses after a spectacular bullpen meltdown
8.2 IP, 2 ER (one ump’s blown call costing him the CGSO), team wins
Cain has been a bit shakier than Lincecum but he still hasn’t been awful and he’s been victimized a bit by the home run ball – it happens. The reason the Giants are losing right now is the offense and a shakier than usual bullpen. Period.
Man, I really just can’t get over how ridiculous this post is. I know the tendency is always to immediately blame the team’s best player when things start to go wrong but it just doesn’t make sense to blame Tim for the swoon the Giants have been in lately.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Aug 18, 2009 11:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also
I’d just like to point out that Matt’s basically had two mediocre starts (where he still managed to pitch deep into the game) lately – before that, since the hit by a line drive game, he had starts of:
7 IP, 1 ER
7 IP, 1 ER
9 IP, 0 ER
and then the game the other day of 7.1 IP, 3 ER
If you really think Cy Young winners never have a couple of starts where they pitch 7-8 innings and give up 4-5 runs, then you’re really expecting way too much.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Aug 18, 2009 11:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
quickest way to win the argument
Lincecum 7.4 WAR
next NL pitcher: 5.0
by superk1ng on Aug 18, 2009 11:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, but he was arguing that Tim hasn’t been carrying his weight lately.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Aug 19, 2009 12:08 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I just looked at his title
He’s had two bad starts post ASB, and this was one of them(other being atlanta). Coming in to this game, he had a 1.81 ERA Post ASB, but just a 2-1 record(YEA, ITS THE PITCHERS THAT HAVEN’T CARRIED THEIR WEIGHT). I think it’s just flat out stupid to say he hasn’t held his weight.
by superk1ng on Aug 19, 2009 12:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But Cy Young winners don’t have two not-awesome starts in a row. Cy Young winners are awesome at least every other week.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Aug 19, 2009 7:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dangit, hairball, now I find this less funny.
Context, people. More context is good. Less context is bad. If you're willing to be reductive, then you're willing to be wrong.
by howtheyscored on Aug 19, 2009 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
glad to be of service
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Aug 19, 2009 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think this post may win a McC Award
It’s certainly the most foolish I’ve read in a long time.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Aug 19, 2009 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
(and since it's so far down, I meant Al Rosen's comment)
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Aug 19, 2009 9:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sometimes I really, really hate free speech.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
by marcello on Aug 19, 2009 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
let’s not get carried away.
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 19, 2009 10:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sometimes I really, really hate the Dodgers.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Aug 19, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
SometimesI always really, really hate the Dodgers.
Fixed.
Adopted Giant Darren "Speedy" Ford. Said by Andrew Baggarly to be the fastest minor league player and the best defensive outfielder in the Giants Organization. Now playing for your San Jose Giants.
by monta101 on Aug 19, 2009 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
what
Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)
by CB30 on Aug 19, 2009 10:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cy Young winners don’t pitch like this over consecutive starts like both LIncecum and Cain have done recently.
by Grant on Aug 19, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Even better
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Aug 19, 2009 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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