Bochy Should Take Advantage of Remaining Off Days

by www.westcoastbias.com on Aug 13, 2009 8:45 AM PDT Comment 39 comments

Whether it’s been Ryan Sadowski or Joe Martinez, the Giants are 1-5 in the last six games started by their fifth starter. Considering the Giants have four off-days left, counting today, shouldn’t Bruce Bochy make sure that Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain pitch as much as possible and also limit the number of starts made by whoever is in the fifth spot? If he does take advantage of these remaining off days, Cain will make 11 starts, Lincecum and Barry Zito will pitch in 10 games each, while Jonathan Sanchez will make 9 starts, and the fifth starter spot will come up in 8 games.

What is concerning me, however, is that Bochy doesn’t plan on pitching Lincecum in New York, when Lincecum should pitch Monday if he receives his normal four days rest. Even worse, by pitching Cain Saturday instead of tomorrow, Cain will miss the four games in Coors Field against the Giants greatest wild-card competitor. The Giants are 2-3 in the Rockies home park this year, and both wins were games started by Cain. He is 2-0 in Colorado and has allowed just one run in 13 innings. Bochy should make sure that Cain pitches in that series, and all he would have to do is push Zito back a day.

Zito has been pitching very well, but if Bochy is worried about hurting Zito’s feelings, then he’s missing the boat. He’s also missing the boat if he is worried about Lincecum or Cain’s right arms. There is no harm to Cain and Lincecum because they would be pitching on their normal four days rest. Bochy needs to give his team the best possible opportunity to reach the postseason.

The negative to my rotation proposal is the fifth starter’s spot coming up three times against the Rockies, but that may happen anyway with Bochy’s current model. Hopefully, the third time when the fifth starter’s spot comes up, Randy Johnson will be healthy.

The positives do greatly outweigh the negatives, however. With 48 games left, the Giants could ensure that 31 of those games will be started by their best three pitchers. Plus, if there is a need for a one-game playoff, the Giants could pitch Zito on a full four days rest, or Lincecum on three days rest. My biggest concern is that Bochy isn’t even thinking about the off days and how he can take advantage of the schedule for the rest of the year. Considering the Giants playoff chances are likely going to be coming down to the final week, Bochy should be thinking about every scenario with this year’s schedule.

THE WAY THE ROTATION SHOULD LOOK FOR THE REST OF THE SEASON

DATE	OPPONENT	STARTER
AUGUST 14	AT METS	CAIN
15	AT METS	ZITO
16	AT METS	SANCHEZ
17	AT METS	LINCECUM
18	AT REDS	5TH STARTER
19	AT REDS	CAIN
20	AT REDS	ZITO
21	AT ROCKIES	SANCHEZ
22	AT ROCKIES	LINCECUM
23	AT ROCKIES	5TH STARTER
24	AT ROCKIES	CAIN
25	VS. D-BACKS	ZITO
26	VS. D-BACKS	SANCHEZ
27	VS. D-BACKS	LINCECUM
28	VS. ROCKIES	5TH STARTER
29	VS. ROCKIES	CAIN
30	VS. ROCKIES	ZITO
31	OFF
SEPTEMBER 1	AT PHILLIES	LINCECUM
2	AT PHILLIES	SANCHEZ
3	AT PHILLIES	CAIN
4	AT BREWERS	ZITO
5	AT BREWERS	5TH STARTER
6	AT BREWERS	LINCECUM
7	VS. PADRES	SANCHEZ
8	VS. PADRES	CAIN
9	VS. PADRES	ZITO
10	OFF
11	VS. DODGERS	LINCECUM
12	VS. DODGERS	SANCHEZ
13	VS. DODGERS	CAIN
14	VS. ROCKIES	ZITO
15	VS. ROCKIES	5TH STARTER
16	VS. ROCKIES	LINCECUM
17	OFF
18	AT DODGERS	CAIN
19	AT DODGERS	ZITO
20	AT DODGERS	SANCHEZ
21	AT D-BACKS	LINCECUM
22	AT D-BACKS	5TH STARTER
23	AT D-BACKS	CAIN
24	VS. CUBS	ZITO
25	VS. CUBS	SANCHEZ
26	VS. CUBS	LINCECUM
27	VS. CUBS	5TH STARTER
28	OFF
29	VS. D-BACKS	CAIN
30	VS. D-BACKS	ZITO
OCTOBER 1	VS. D-BACKS	LINCECUM
2	AT PADRES	SANCHEZ
3	AT PADRES	5TH STARTER
4	AT PADRES	CAIN

This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.

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I’m down with this, with the proviso that Bochy and Righetti monitor the pitchers very carefully. If someone needs an extra day of rest, then he should get it.

No, really, I have updated my blog this year: http://skaldheim.livejournal.com/tag/baseball

by Skaldheim on Aug 13, 2009 9:24 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

during yesterday’s game, I was thinkin the same thing. You can get Caincecum against both the mets and the rox on normal off days. You will also help the bully out by adding Joe Martinez to the pen in case during this hellish road trip you face a bad start by Zito or Sanchez. But knowing Bochy’s stupid self, he will give everyone their turn. He is a complete an utter moron and should die of gonorrhea and rot in hell. A la Dan Marino.

by Big Daddy J on Aug 13, 2009 9:41 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The “die Bochy” hyperbole is getting a little old, no?

by KCE on Aug 13, 2009 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

because he dosen’t change the pitching rotation in late August, he should die of gonorrhea and rot in hell? Really….I would think that would be resevered for the Ted Bundy’s, Adolf Hitler’s, and any random Dodger.

I swear, this insane critizism of everything that Bochy does is turning me into a Bochy fan.

by tyrannoman on Aug 13, 2009 7:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Randy Johnson is never pitching again

by Lars The Wanderer on Aug 13, 2009 9:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I don’t think there is any way he is ready to pitch this year… The guy hasn’t even thrown a ball yet.

"A foghorn blowing out wild and cold." -Dire Straits

by FriscoJoe on Aug 13, 2009 11:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That was qualified with a “hopefully”

by www.westcoastbias.com on Aug 13, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hopefully, I win the lottery!

Randy Johnson is done. 45 year old bodies do not recover from torn labrums.

by Lars The Wanderer on Aug 13, 2009 12:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

what about partially torn rotator cuffs?

Waiting for Giants and Niners to contend once more.

by dcp on Aug 13, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would only change the rotation if it means

Timmy and Cain would be facing the other teams 1/2 b/c our 3/4 can go up against everyone elses 3/4 (and sometime 2)

Minor White > Ansel Adams

by say hey nation on Aug 13, 2009 10:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah, we kicked this around for awhile last week. Unfortunately, there isn’t a ton to be gained here. You say we could end up with 31 of 48 games pitched by the top three starters, but doing nothing would result in 29 of 48. And doing nothing until the Rockies leave town on August 30th could also result in 31 of 48. Assuming the Giants hold their own against Colorado and are still in the race, I’d start tweaking the rotation at that point. By then we’ll also have a better idea about Martinez, we’ll know if there’s any chance of Johnson returning, and if Cain/Lincecum are showing any signs of fatigue. In the mean time, Lincecum is 4-0 with a ridiculous K/BB of 69/7 on five days rest, so I don’t mind him recharging a bit before pitching in Cinci on Tuesday.

Good point about Cain’s success at Coors, but I’d still prefer Lincecum vs. the Rockies twice this month.

by pantalones on Aug 13, 2009 10:15 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

In a race that could come down to a game or two, 31 of 48 compared to 29 of 48 could be a huge difference.

In Bochy’s plan (does he really have one?), Lincecum would probably also get two starts against the Rockies.

Nice numbers on Lincecum’s five days rest, but let’s face it, he’s pretty sick when he’s also on four days rest.

by www.westcoastbias.com on Aug 13, 2009 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah, if the Giants are in this thing at the end of the month, I definitely think they should juggle the rotation to get those 31 starts

by pantalones on Aug 13, 2009 10:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

well it's certainly much less than 2 wins difference

Lincecum is worth about 0.30 WAR/start, Cain about 0.10. So assuming the Giants 5th starter is exactly replacement (I think Martinez is actually a bit better than that), that’s 0.4 wins….. I think realistically the gain is about 1/2 that.

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-------
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by zenbitz on Aug 13, 2009 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

No, it’s not two wins difference, but it could be 1 win… I don’t think Martinez is better than replacement level. He does have a 6.00 ERA (obviously, in limited work)

by www.westcoastbias.com on Aug 13, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL, evualuating a pitcher by ERA

Minor White > Ansel Adams

by say hey nation on Aug 13, 2009 11:51 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Believe it or not, ERA does still count for something.

If you want to go by FIP, his 3.04 numbers as a 25-year old in a pitcher’s park in Double-A last year isn’t very impressive

by www.westcoastbias.com on Aug 13, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

In 16 innings though.

Mr. F!
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by Natto on Aug 13, 2009 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

sample size
(that works here, right?)

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by merkin on Aug 13, 2009 12:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I know.. I regret posting the ERA because it is only 16 innings. I did say limited work.

The point is, from what I’ve seen (hope I’m wrong), Joe Martinez doesn’t appear to be as good or better than a replacement level pitcher.

by www.westcoastbias.com on Aug 13, 2009 12:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

zips projection 4.67 ERA. Not including his 2009 FIP numbers.

which is almost average for 2009 NL.

by zenbitz on Aug 13, 2009 1:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not that Bochy is the brightest guy for his head size but!

I guarantee that Bochy and Rags, and even Sabes have gone through these scenarios, and even charted them out. That is what these guys do. Or what they pay assistants to do for them. They have to decide whether it is better to ocassionally give their young arms, an extra day of rest throughout this grueling long season, or to let them pitch on 4 days rest. They will make a decision, hopefully based on their benefit risk assessement, give them some credit

by bradleybear on Aug 13, 2009 10:55 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Young arms need less rest than old ones.

20 years ago starters still expected to throw at least 1 complete game in every 4 starts — and the good ones finished 1 out of 3. What’s the advantage of having young arms if they don’t show resiliency? Many Giants teams since 1987 choked late because the veteran geezers had tapped out in October. Let’s see what “young and good” can accomplish for once.

by hokysmksbw on Aug 13, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Bochy needs to get thrown out of every game.

A Groucho mask on a broomstick would do better at filling out the lineup cards and setting the pitching assignments.

by hokysmksbw on Aug 13, 2009 12:30 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Bochy Should Take ~~Advantage of Remaining~~ Off Days

by Evan on Aug 13, 2009 1:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

How about the rest of this season?

by SFGuy on Aug 13, 2009 11:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok, here is how I would do it

Without too much disruption
3 shifts, and nobody sits for more than 4-5 days except #5 Starter
You can get 10 Tim and 10 Cain starts, 8 #5 starts
4 Tim Starts vs LA/COL, 3 Cain Starts vs LA/COL
And Tim would be the last day of season if needed

9/2 skip #5 and go to Tim
9/11 skip #5 and go to Sanchez
9/21 skip #5 and go to Sanchez

8/14/2009 , Giants at Mets , Zito
8/15/2009 , Giants at Mets , Cain
8/16/2009 , Giants at Mets , Sanchez
8/17/2009 , Giants at Mets , #5
8/18/2009 , Giants at Reds , Lincecum
8/19/2009 , Giants at Reds , Zito
8/20/2009 , Giants at Reds , Cain
8/21/2009 , Giants at Rockies , Sanchez
8/22/2009 , Giants at Rockies , #5
8/23/2009 , Giants at Rockies , Lincecum
8/24/2009 , Giants at Rockies , Zito
8/25/2009 , Diamondbacks at Giants , Cain
8/26/2009 , Diamondbacks at Giants , Sanchez
8/27/2009 , Diamondbacks at Giants , #5
8/28/2009 , Rockies at Giants , Lincecum
8/29/2009 , Rockies at Giants , Zito
8/30/2009 , Rockies at Giants , Cain
8/31/2009 , OFF DAY , OFF DAY
9/1/2009 , Giants at Phillies , Sanchez
9/2/2009 , Giants at Phillies , Lincecum
9/3/2009 , Giants at Phillies , Zito
9/4/2009 , Giants at Brewers , Cain
9/5/2009 , Giants at Brewers , #5
9/6/2009 , Giants at Brewers , Sanchez
9/7/2009 , Padres at Giants , Lincecum
9/8/2009 , Padres at Giants , Zito
9/9/2009 , Padres at Giants , Cain
9/10/2009 , OFF DAY , OFF DAY
9/11/2009 , Dodgers at Giants , Sanchez
9/12/2009 , Dodgers at Giants , Lincecum
9/13/2009 , Dodgers at Giants , Zito
9/14/2009 , Rockies at Giants , Cain
9/15/2009 , Rockies at Giants , #5
9/16/2009 , Rockies at Giants , Sanchez
9/17/2009 , OFF DAY , OFF DAY
9/18/2009 , Giants at Dodgers , Lincecum
9/19/2009 , Giants at Dodgers , Zito
9/20/2009 , Giants at Dodgers , Cain
9/21/2009 , Giants at Diamondbacks , Sanchez
9/22/2009 , Giants at Diamondbacks , #5
9/23/2009 , Giants at Diamondbacks , Lincecum
9/24/2009 , Cubs at Giants , Zito
9/25/2009 , Cubs at Giants , Cain
9/26/2009 , Cubs at Giants , Sanchez
9/27/2009 , Cubs at Giants , #5
9/28/2009 , OFF DAY , OFF DAY
9/29/2009 , Diamondbacks at Giants , Lincecum
9/30/2009 , Diamondbacks at Giants , Zito
10/1/2009 , Diamondbacks at Giants , Cain
10/2/2009 , Giants at Padres , Sanchez
10/3/2009 , Giants at Padres , #5
10/4/2009 , Giants at Padres , Lincecum

(sorry, can’t figure out tables)

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by merkin on Aug 14, 2009 12:37 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

The one proposed above has Sanchez on 6 days rest 2x and 7 days 1x
I wouldn’t want to screw with his rhythm like that, especially when he has a hard time repeating his mechanics. The one I listed Sanchez never sits more than 5 days at any one time.

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by merkin on Aug 14, 2009 12:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah his rhythm was really thrown off when he went 18 days off between starts before the no-hitter.

by www.westcoastbias.com on Aug 14, 2009 11:31 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah and he was pitching like shit before that 18 days off

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by merkin on Aug 14, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly.. So pitching every fifth day doesn’t mean success for Sanchez.

Exactly.. So pitching every fifth day doesn’t mean success for Sanchez.His numbers are better when he gets more than 4 days rest.

by www.westcoastbias.com on Aug 14, 2009 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

you are one strange cat

Daily Gameball and Joker at GIANTSBOARD.COM
Say Hey Say Willie, that Giant Kid is Great!

by merkin on Aug 14, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

He has a 4.61 ERA this year.. a 4.25 ERA when he gets extra rest. Tell me how his rhythm has been thrown off?

He had 18 days between starts, and threw a no-hitter. According to you, that should have thrown off his rhythm right?

by www.westcoastbias.com on Aug 14, 2009 12:04 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

so varying his rest and routine would be good for Sanchez?
are you really making this argument?
not worth my time, sorry

Daily Gameball and Joker at GIANTSBOARD.COM
Say Hey Say Willie, that Giant Kid is Great!

by merkin on Aug 14, 2009 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

I’m saying that varying his rest and routine hasn’t affected him negatively and you have no proof that it has.

In the proposal above:

Sanchez pitches on normal rest 6 times
Sanchez pitches on one extra day of rest 2 times
Sanchez pitches on two extra days of rest just once.

That qualifies as messing with his routine? Laughable.

According to your argument, the Giants are messing with Lincecum’s routine by giving him an extra day of rest by pitching him on Tuesday instead of Monday.

by www.westcoastbias.com on Aug 14, 2009 12:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok, you baited me well enough
Like I said before, he was pitching like shit BEFORE the 18 days so quit putting word in my mouth.

Sanchez pitches on normal rest 6 times
Sanchez pitches on one extra day of rest 2 times
Sanchez pitches on two extra days of rest just once.

nice use of language to shade the reality
“Normal” 4 days rest 6 times
“one extra” aka 6 days rest 2 times
“two extra” aka 7 days rest 1 time

As for varying days of rest 4to 6 to 4 to 7 to 6.
MAYBE it won’t hurt his performance, but you don’t know and it very likely could.
People and pitchers are creatures of habit and like routine, and pitching involves muscle memory that required repetition, I don’t care what Sanchez micro-split you wanna quote.

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by merkin on Aug 14, 2009 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Are you even reading what you’re writing?

You said Sanchez was pitching like shit before his no hitter. Do you not realize that Sanchez was taking his normal turn in the rotation before he was demoted? If routine and rhythm were so important to him, why was he “pitching like shit” (your words)?

And, if routine is SO important to Sanchez, why does he pitch a no-hitter in his first start in 18 days! Obviously, it’s not that important.

Varying his rest has not hurt Sanchez. That’s why he has a 5.27 ERA when pitching on normal four-day rest. And a 4.18 ERA when he doesn’t.

We aren’t talking micro-splits here. Sanchez has made 19 starts. That’s not a small sample size. That’s called proof. Something you fail to bring to the table.

by www.westcoastbias.com on Aug 14, 2009 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

That’s why he has a 5.27 ERA when pitching on normal four-day rest.
And a 4.18 ERA when he doesn’t.
….
That’s not a small sample size. That’s called proof.

So now you lump 5 days in with 4 days, now 5 days is “abnormal” to you just so you can make your stats split right for your proof. I thought you used 5 days as normal few posts ago.

4 starts 6+ days rest
that’s small sample size
and 1 was a no-hitter

And yes, if you are pitching like shit, then routine doesn’t matter. But he is actually pitching halfway decent recently and I would prefer not to mess with his patterns.

But whatever, you proved it already. Call up Bochy and tell him your amazing stats so we can get Sanchez on that 7 day rest period that makes him so good.

Daily Gameball and Joker at GIANTSBOARD.COM
Say Hey Say Willie, that Giant Kid is Great!

by merkin on Aug 14, 2009 5:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

Missing the point again

Under the plan, he pitches on 7-day rest ONCE. That’s what you’re whining about? One time?

I never said that 7-day rest “makes him so good”. If I felt that way, wouldn’t I always want to see him pitch on 7 days rest?

Apparently, you like to turn words around to help your argument.

The point is, whether he’s pitching on 4,5,6, or 7+ days rest, it doesn’t affect his performance enough to argue that his “rhythm is thrown off” as you say it is. In fact, contrary to your argument, his numbers are a little better when he gets extra rest. The stats prove it. Where are your stats to suggest his rhythm is thrown off?

Under the proposal, of his nine remaining starts, Sanchez would start on:

4 days rest – 5 times
5 days rest – 1 time
6 days rest – 2 times
7 days rest – 1 time

Your argument is that these 3 times when he doesn’t pitch on 4 or 5 day rest is going to throw off his rhythm and routine. You have brought nothing to the table to suggest this. Major league starting pitchers don’t always pitch on 4 or 5 days rest. They deal with it. It’s not a major crisis as you would like to believe.

by www.westcoastbias.com on Aug 15, 2009 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs