Andy Seiler’s analysis (pre-signing):

6. Matt Graham, RHP, Oak Ridge HS (TX), #177 overall, 6’4’’/225: I’m still trying to figure out what to expect from Graham, who I had as a first round lock for this class a couple years ago. He completely lost his top-shelf stuff over a year ago, and despite some claims that he’s back, I just haven’t heard the big positives I was hearing back then. He’s still raw, and though he’s gotten his fastball back to an extent, his command is just not what it was. Was he hurt? I don’t know. All I know is that the Giants got a first round talent in the sixth round here, but he might be expensive to sign. This was somewhere near where I expected Graham to go, though I heard different projections even during the beginning of draft week. Great, but risky, pick. If he doesn’t sign, he’ll be draft-eligible again after his sophomore season in college in 2011. DOB: 5/1/90. Commitment: North Carolina.

Very nice to hear!

SCOUTING PROFILE (3/1): Graham burst onto the national prospect scene early in his junior season at Oak Ridge High. After throwing up to 94 mph at Perfect Game’s South Underclass Showcase in August 2007, the barrel-chested Graham joined the North Carolina-based Dirtbags travel team for the 2007 World Wood Bat Association underclass championship a month later, and was so dominant that he was named the event’s Most Valuable Pitcher.

He displayed top-level stuff to go with solid command and a bulldog approach on the mound. Graham was soon ranked No. 1 nationally in his class for a period of time, but his pitching mechanics came unraveled the following spring and it’s been a long road back for Graham, who has appeared healthy the entire time. His velocity often fluctuated wildly, and he struggled to throw much more than 86-88 mph early last summer. He had little or no control of his pitches, as well, even when throwing 5-7 mph softer than he had previously. His once-compact arm action was now long and disjointed, and he had no balance or rhythm out front. He had little control of his breaking ball, and limited feel for his changeup.

Effectively, he had become just a thrower with little apparent feel for pitching. Graham started to put things back together late last summer, touching 94 mph at the Aflac All-American Game and pitching consistently at 91-92 mph with a noticeably-calmer delivery in October at the WWBA fall championship in Jupiter, Fla. There’s no question that Graham has one of the elite arms in the 2009 high-school class; it’s just a matter of putting his arm strength with a set of pitching mechanics that works for him. Graham’s multiple stints with the Dirtbags carried over to his college commitment, as he has signed with North Carolina.—DAVID RAWNSLEY

UPDATE (5/15): Graham steadied himself to a degree somewhat this spring, ironing out some of his delivery flaws and regaining much of his previous velocity. He topped out at 95 mph often during the early spring and showed some flashes with his upper-70s slurve.

He is still a work-in-progress mechanically and may end up being a reliever down the road if he cannot learn to consistently repeat his delivery. His demeanor and stuff might be well-suited for that role.—DR

Source: PG CrossChecker

The Dale’s Pale Ale that I’m drinking has a few words:

Fuck yeah!

Seriously, though, it’s good news. The Giants are a good organization for raw, hard-throwing pitchers, and I was a little worried about the commitment to North Carolina.

With this signing it appears that the only one of the Giants’ top 17 picks that won’t sign will be 5th rounder Brandon Belt (1b, Jr. – U. Texas). Of those 17 players, only Wheeler (1st), Joseph (2nd) and Belt have yet to sign. I’m assuming that the whispered rumors are true and Wheeler and Joseph already have agreements, but our FO is just waiting a few more days to announce it because they both are getting over slot bonuses.

I can’t see that that would be the case with Belt, since he was viewed by many to be a reach in the 5th round. Even if he went well over slot the actual dollar amount would be trivial enough that the Giants woudn’t be worried about angering Selig by announcing it early – as can be seen that they just announced Graham’s (who went 1 round after Belt) signing even though it was 233% ($350K) over slot. Belt does have another year of eligibility left, so he must be gambling that he’ll improve his draft position by playing at Texas one more year.

The only real remaining “prize” would be the #18 pick, Jonathan Walsh, a high school OF/C out of Texas. He was viewed by many as worthy of a pick in the top 10 rounds, but his strong committment to the U. of Texas and a so-so senior season in high school dropped him to the 18th round. I doubt the Giants will want to pay the $250-300K it would probably take to sign him, because of the success they have had signing so many of their other picks.

I’ll just add that, IMO, with the signing of Wheeler and Graham we now have 2 pitchers whose upside are even higher than the 2 prospects that Sabes traded away last week – Alderson and Barnes. Only time will tell if they live up to expectations.

this is good news

Great job by the Giants. I didn’t think they were going to get Graham signed. I thought he was the most important of all of the tough signs.

Great news. I didn’t really expect us to sign him, so it’s fantastic to get a nice boost and add someone of his ability.

Cool.

Fantastic, I thought we wouldn’t get him.

Apparently this was either a really big steal for us, or the Pirates organization is really screwed up (another reason why we never needed to trade them Alderson to get Sanchez – but that’s another thread). I just read that the Pirates recently signed Louisiana high school right-handed pitcher Zach Von Rosenberg (their 6th round pick) for $1.2 million. Just to give you a benchmark, about 25-30% of all the 1st round draft picks are going to end up getting < $1.2M for their signing bonuses.

Graham was one of the top-rated HS pitchers at the start of the Spring baseball season, but his mechanics got screwed up – leading to wildly fluctuating FB velocities (88-94 mph) and inconsistencies in his control. On the other hand, ZVR had a very good senior season, and climbed up the ratings chart mainly due to his ability to consistently spot his FB and pitch with great control. In many respects he is comparable to Tim Alderson (tall, good control and 88-90 mph FB), although he doesn’t have anything like Alderson’s superior curve ball. So, going into the draft, ZVR was ranked as a better prospect than Graham, but he was only chosen 2 picks before Graham in the beginning of the 6th round.

Not to take anything away from ZVR, but many evaluatiors believe that with some good coaching and a few mechanical tweaks Graham has the stuff to be ranked once-again in the top 10 of all pitchers in this years draft – while ZVR has pretty much maxed out his potential in the top 18-20 range. The Giants were able to sign Graham for $500K, while the Pirates had to lay out more 2.2 times that amount for ZVR. Advantage Giants? I think so – especially when you compare the 2 teams 1st round picks and the money that will be paid for them.

The only bummers for me is that Diego Seastrunk and the two interesting late round picks from Western Oklahoma (Jamaine Cotton and Randolph Oduber) haven’t signed.

about him being white and his last name being Graham