Taking a pitch: A short look at the failings of the SF Giants
The Giants are an awful, awful offensive team; this isn't much in dispute. You can scream about it (and I have - if I had to pay a quarter for every time I've sworn here, I could pay off Renteria's contract), but there are limitations to what an awful team can do to improve its raw hitting ability as it, were. Nonetheless, the single most frustrating thing about this team is that the hitters repeatedly show a complete and total lack of patience - and worse, the idiots running the team (Bochy, Carney, Dunston) seem to do nothing about it.
A look at the numbers, to start, with the Optimist and the Realist:
Realist: Just how bad, are the Giants offensively? Coming into the game, lets look at the simplest measure - OBP. Major league baseball:
1. Yankees - .359
2. Dodgers - .353
3. Angels - .351
4. Indians - .349
5. Rays - .349
...
Avg: .333
...
28.Royals - .314
29. Reds - .310
30: Giants - .310
Optimist: OBP is a measure that is still heavily dependent on hitting; the Giants suck, but their low OBP is a product of them not hitting well, not a lack of patience. All the magic in the world can't teach Edgar Renteria to hit a Jonathan Broxton fastball, or allow Scott to hit a slider.
Realist: Pure hitting suckage? Heathen. Lets look at team BB instead
1. Yankees - 471
2. Rays - 468
3. Red Sox - 460
4. Rockies - 445
5. Nationals - 441
...
Avg: 383
...
28. Royals - 302
29. Mariners - 296
30: Giants - - 248
Realist: Lets ponder the depths of the Giants putridity at taking a walk here, shall we? Not only does the team rank dead last in baseball in BB's, they have a 20% deficit as compared to the team in 29th place.
...
Optimist: Well, maybe the lack of walks is a product of them taking pitches, but not taking good pitches - right? There's got to be some upside to the number of pitches they take, right? Please god, right? Oh god, you're pulling out another data table aren't you?
Pessimist: ....
P/PA
1.Rockies - 3.99
2. Rays - 3.98
3. Indians - 3.95
...
Avg: 3.84
...
28. Braves - 3.69
29. Cardinals - 3.66
...
30. Giants - 3.60
Optimist: (now flailing around for an excuse): while this team is awful at taking walks, they must make up for it in some way; they get the ball into play, hustling and grittying like the veteran-savvy team they are. Why, I bet they get the ball into play a lot. Nerd - they don't K, they play baseball the right way. Why don't you go back into your mom's basement?
Pessimist: in my mom's basement, I looked at the BB/K statistics. For funsies.
BB / K ratio.
1. Yankees - 0.69
2. Mets - 0.65
3. Red Sox - 0.59
4. Dodgers - 0.59
...
27. Mariners - 0.42
28. Royals - 0.41
29. Rangers - 0.36
...
30. Giants - 0.31
Optimist (sobs uncontrollably): Make the bad man stop showing me numbers!
Pessimist: just one more set. yes... just one more set. And because I don't know HTML (hey, I never said I was a good nerd), I'll just link directly to the source.
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=5&season=2009&month=0
For reference, lets look at:
a. O-Swing (% of pitches swung at outside the zone)
1. Yankees - 21.9%
2. Dodgers - 22.4%
3. Indians - 22.5%
4. Brewers - 22.7%
...
27. Astros - 27.4%
28. Rangers - 28.1%
29. Mariners - 29.1%
30. Giants - 31.9%
b. F-Strike (first strike %, or how often the teams hitters are at an 0-1 count)
1. Phillies - 55.5%
2. Yankees - 56.0%
3. Orioles - 56.8%
4. Indians - 57.1%
...
27. Twins - 58.9%
28. Reds - 60.5%
29. Rangers - 60.6%
30. Giants - 61.0%
Optimist: Okay, just so I'm clear here, you're suggesting the the Giants are dead last in:
- taking pitches
- BB's,
- OBP,
- first-strike counts,
- and swinging at pitches in the strike zone.
And thus potentially, a team that hacks at eveyrthing, thus leading itself into bad counts, takes just enough pitches to strike out but not to walk, usually swings at a first pitch outside the zone, thus leading to being on the defensive for the rest of the AB's, is responsible for its offensive problem?You're also suggesting that despite this analysis which could your average 3- year crack baby could understand, the team's approach has been to rank dead-last in pitches per plate appearance and swing at everything in sight?
Pessimist: Yes.
Optimist: But does it capture Rich Aurillia's grit and veteran moxey?
Pessimist (shoots optimist).
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
8 recs |
131 comments
Comments
The Giants are a bunch of hackers with like 2 or 3 exceptions
There is no optimism left in this department
Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)
by CB30 on Aug 10, 2009 11:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Just think of how they’re going to ruin Buster’s plate D when he comes up! I can’t wait.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Aug 10, 2009 11:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree 100% with your general point and share your frustration. Just wondering about the K/BB ratio numbers though. If the Giants are last with a .31 ratio, doesn’t that mean they’re walking three times as much as they strike out? Or is it BB/K? Doesn’t a higher ratio mean you’re striking out nearly as much as you walk? (I’m obviously unfamiliar with how to properly read this stat.)
"He is Tim Lincecum...the Most Interesting Pitcher in the World."
by Kitspool on Aug 10, 2009 11:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Clearly they don’t walk three times as much as they strike out, so I’m guessing its the other way around. He probably means bb/k ratio.
VOTE SANDOVAL
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
by raisingcain on Aug 10, 2009 11:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Correct - will edit
Sorry about that.
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
by Aadik on Aug 10, 2009 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah that’s what I figured. If the Giants are at one end of the table and the Yankees and Red Sox are at the other, I’m going to have to assume the Yankees and Red Sox are doing it right and we’re doing it wrong.
"He is Tim Lincecum...the Most Interesting Pitcher in the World."
by Kitspool on Aug 10, 2009 11:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s pretty much what ESPN tells me, day after day.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
by Lyle on Aug 11, 2009 6:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you believe everything you they tell you ?
My adopted son Matt Downs . Ranked as the 24th best prospect in the Giants farm system by Baseball America !!
by nvsfg on Aug 11, 2009 8:53 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
They are the WORLDWIDE LEADER IN SPORTS, so we kinda have to believe everything they say.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
by groug on Aug 11, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Think they'll go with my edits ?
ESPN: The Worldwide Leader In Sports
ESPN.com provides comprehensive sports coverage ( if you live on the East Coast). Complete sports information ( providing that you love the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox and Cardinals) including ( some very limited coverage of other teams from ) NFL, MLB, NBA, College Football, College Basketball scores and news.
espn.go.com/ – Cached – Similar
My adopted son Matt Downs . Ranked as the 24th best prospect in the Giants farm system by Baseball America !!
by nvsfg on Aug 11, 2009 1:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good post.
Bad Giants.
Young Studs for Old Bats: The Brian Sabean Story
FREE KEVIN FRANDSEN!!! Member of the Frandsen 5% Club.
by Uribe nee Gonzalez on Aug 10, 2009 11:35 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Great post…good info.
We all know Bengie is the #1 culprit but after that who is 2nd worse? Edgar? Rowand?
I also think we need to keep in mind that Pablo might schew these #s a bit. Can we get a stat for highest AVG on pitches out of the strike zone? He must be hitting .500…
by CyLinced on Aug 10, 2009 11:45 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Great post!
How is it this mess continues? When will the Giants management finally try to tweak things? Their runs per game has continually been down all year (well actually the past 5 yrs), the experiment has failed. Go back to the fundamentals. You’d think something that simple and noticeable would be implemented.
When Garko took his first ABs as a Giants I immediately noticed he took the first pitch all 3 ABs. The very fact that I noticed that tells you how impatient this team is. Garko isn’t exactly a patient hitter and yet this lineup makes him look like Todd Helton.
"The big thing people say to me is, 'Why don't you ever smile?' Well, I'm too interested in trying to beat somebody right now to smile." Will Clark
"I'm close to six feet, I like to think." The Freak.
by Tellias on Aug 10, 2009 11:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The giants lack of discipline has been discussed ad nauseum
But every new way of presenting things hurts a little more. It just baffles me that the FO/management don’t seem to care about these kind of things. It’s amazing that a team that had the most disciplined hitter in the history of the game for so many years can toss the value of taking bad pitches to the curb so thoroughly. Do GIANTS BRASZZ! only look at Bonds and say “lol, DINGERZ” and not “.609 OBP in 2004?! This guy was unbelievable!” It’s one thing for a team not to be saber-friendly. It’s another to not understand baseball fundamentals.
Kevin Pucetas lurks in the shadows, waiting for his time to shine.
by Sammy Danger on Aug 11, 2009 12:30 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Well, the thing is, if you recall correctly, they ALWAYS used to paint Bonds’s walks as a bad thing. Not just the intentional ones, but the unintentional ones as well. Fans booed EVERY time he was walked, even if it was after a 9 or 10 pitch at bat. We were conditioned during the Bonds era to see his walks not as something that was helping the team but as something that was hurting it. And I think the front office saw it that way as well
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Aug 11, 2009 12:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
To be fair
they were hurting us, because when he wasn’t walked he was likely to hit the ball to Tiburon.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
by tedfordfan on Aug 11, 2009 6:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t know. Walks put that guy on base at a 60% clip in 2004. That’s pretty freaking ridiculous, and I don’t know how much the not-walking extra-base hits he would have had if they pitched to him would have changed the value of simply not making outs over 60% of the time.
My Dave Righetti is better than your Dave Righetti.
by howtheyscored on Aug 11, 2009 7:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
To hit the ball to Tiburon, wouldn’t it have to be foul? He should be trying to hit the ball into the Coliseum.
by Missing Barry on Aug 11, 2009 7:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
When he was getting on base over 50% of the time, they were most certainly not hurting us.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Aug 11, 2009 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dude, today I’d settle for getting ANYBODY on even 35% of the time. It’s ridiculous that only Pablo can do this.
by gvp914 on Aug 11, 2009 8:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fred could still! Maybe... :(
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
by baetown415 on Aug 11, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Giants offense = massive fail :-(
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
by baetown415 on Aug 11, 2009 12:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Post of the Year. Great Job.
The Giants offense makes me want to barf. Rowand went back to sucking ass, the reason being that he’s not at leadoff? Well, I don’t want to know so long as Velez is hot. Hopefully Schierholtz (proven hitter) can help once he’s back, although he probably won’t start. Also, I just want to make it clear that since every one of our outfielders except three are on the DL Randy Winn is starting. He is a 4th/5th outfielder at best on a contending team. Isn’t that what the Giants are/want to be this year? I’ll happily say good riddance after this season. As far as Molina goes, I hope they keep him for another year or two as long as his catching/defense is good and he doesn’t hit cleanup.
We need a lineup like this:
Velez (CF/LF)
F. Sanchez (2B)
Sandoval (3B)
Garko (1B)
Schierholtz (RF)
Lewis (LF)/Rowand (CF)
Molina ©
Renteria (SS)
Pitcher (P)
And, seriously, can we get a new hitting coach who emphasizes patience (or a hitting approach BEST-SUITED for his players)???
Natural hater of all NY, Pittsburgh, Oakland, LA, and Dallas teams
by SSC24 on Aug 11, 2009 1:23 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
A hitting coach that emphasizes patience isn’t going to stop hackers from hacking. YOU GET PATIENT PLAYERS IF YOU WANT A PATIENT LINEUP. Schierholtz, Panda, Molina, Rowand and Uribe have been hacks their entire baseball careers, from the minor leagues to the majors. You can emphasize taking pitches all you want to these guys, but when they get to the plate and see pitches they like(which is pretty much all of them), they’re going to swing at them.
If you look at the top teams on these lists, I think you’ll notice that none of their players some how developed patience in the majors after not having any in the minors, or developed it after having a career full of hackery. Nope, they developed patient hitters in the minor leagues and they signed patient hitters through FA.
by superk1ng on Aug 11, 2009 4:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again, this is essentially my argument #1 for making a change at the top of the organization when Sabes’ contract runs out, regardless of this year’s results on the field.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Aug 11, 2009 5:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How sad is it
that I read through the list of players above and said to myself, “Rowand isn’t that much of a hacker.” Then I looked up his career BB%. 6.6%. And that looks good compared to most of our hitters.
/weeps softly
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
by tedfordfan on Aug 11, 2009 6:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OBP etc.
I do hold out some hope for Schierholtz’s improvement in this area, although I’m certainly not counting on it. Panda, Uribe, Rowand, and Molina are clearly prime offenders. Winn, in the few times I’ve gotten to see him this year, seems to vacillate wildly between patience/non-patience – when the opposing pitcher seems to be losing his control, Randy swings at the first pitch a lot, it seems to me.
I’m certainly no stathead, but even I can see very clearly that the OBP deficiencies (and their assorted corollaries) on this team are clearly holding them back.
Perhaps more important than pointing out these weaknesses, Roger’s point above seems to me to be the main thing: the roster construction is poor, and has been poor for several years. Change begins at the top in most organizations, and I believe it should start at the top with the Giants as well.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
by Lyle on Aug 11, 2009 6:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt Schierholtz ever learns to walk
low walk rate in the minors + he swings at pitches out of the strike zone almost as much as Bengie Molina. He’s basically Jeff Francoeur.
And I agree, Sabes needs to go. I fucking hate everything about this teams offense.
by superk1ng on Aug 11, 2009 7:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I fucking hate everything about this teams offense.
Panda and Sanchez say “hi”
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
by Goofus on Aug 11, 2009 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
+ Mayor
You are absolutely right. Players are who they are, pretty much.
Forsan et haec olim meminisse iuvabit... Maybe.
by Mayor of 311 on Aug 11, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And then there is the SSS explosion of the new Eugenio Velez.
My adopted son Matt Downs . Ranked as the 24th best prospect in the Giants farm system by Baseball America !!
by nvsfg on Aug 11, 2009 1:04 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he’s proven at the moment, then he’s proven to be pretty mediocre (94 OPS+ on the season).
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Aug 11, 2009 12:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you saying that
The Giants Offense is about equal to the Rangers!
If you are I totally agree
Minor White > Ansel Adams
by say hey nation on Aug 11, 2009 7:25 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes, to echo some others, this is exactly why Sabean needs to go. In all the years he’s been here, he still, fundamentally, does not understand the importance of these simply concepts most casual fans are even beginning to understand. If he hasn’t changed by now, why would we believe he ever will change? This post makes it pretty clear that unless he does change his approach, we will never be a successful offensive team.
by Missing Barry on Aug 11, 2009 7:54 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The thing I always find bizarre is that he came up in the Yankees system, and the Yanks offensive philosophy has put a premium of seeing pitches really as far back as the Gehrig teams. It’s hard to figure.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Aug 11, 2009 7:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It seems like the philosophy is there when it comes to the drafting but they seem to drift away from it completely when it comes to trades and free agency.
by superk1ng on Aug 11, 2009 8:18 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe that’s just not the way he did things in Tampa.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
by Lyle on Aug 11, 2009 9:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think I understand what you’re saying. It’s that we need to be more aggressive at the plate, right?
by xanthan on Aug 11, 2009 8:00 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
That's what I got from this post
More first pitch swings, less pickiness. Being picky has cost us so many games this year.
by gvp914 on Aug 11, 2009 8:05 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Giants hitting coach needs to be tape recording of of the words “DON’T SWING AT THAT!”.
Randy Winn is in time out until his OBP gets back over .330.
by oldjacket on Aug 11, 2009 8:02 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Great Post. Cruel, but great post.

My adopted son Matt Downs . Ranked as the 24th best prospect in the Giants farm system by Baseball America !!
by nvsfg on Aug 11, 2009 9:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where is Shawon Dunston smiling and tearing up as Rowand GIDP?
by gvp914 on Aug 11, 2009 9:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't get the impression that the Giants hitting coach much believes "Don't Swing At That."
I was calling for Lansford’s firing in June of LAST year. I take a back seat to nobody in wanting to force him off a plank.
Forsan et haec olim meminisse iuvabit... Maybe.
by Mayor of 311 on Aug 11, 2009 11:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But haven’t we established at this point Lansford does understand the concept of taking pitches and drawing walks and it’s really Dunston that doesn’t?
by Missing Barry on Aug 11, 2009 11:33 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s what it seems to be. The ridiculous thing is that Lansford is the HITTING COACH and Dunston is not, so you’d think (or hope, even), that what the hitting coach says should have some influence on the players.
Here’s what gets me – professional athletes or not, these guys are being paid by someone to do something. Seems to me that if the folks who are paying you tell you that you need to work the count a little, you should work the goddamn count a little. Just because you want to do it a different way doesn’t mean you should get to, especially when (a) it isn’t working and (2) it’s to the detriment of the team.
It doesn’t seem like such a difficult concept, and yet. . .
(10 different Giants players have swung on the first pitch and either popped up or grounded out in the time it took me to write this).
Oh – and also: if there’s obvious discord on what coaches are telling the players (and it’s even being reported in national magazines), then maybe the manager or a team exec needs to step up and remove one of the dissenting voices from his position.
It's my blarg! Quick Pitch
And I tweet (more often then I blarg).
by can of corn on Aug 11, 2009 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it’s more a case where these skills aren’t easy to change. A hitter, by the time he’s in the MLB (especially the old farts the Giants employ) has his approach down, and changing it in any significant way is unrealistic, regardless of what the coach says. In that case, this problem:
“the manager or a team exec needs to step up and remove one of the dissenting voices from his position.”
Is really a problem with that manager/team exec acquiring players who don’t have the skillset to be successful hitters. Basically, it’s Sabean’s fault for assembling a team of players who don’t have the skills to work the count or take a walk. There’s not a whole lot Lansford can do about it. Put garbage in, get garbage out…
by Missing Barry on Aug 11, 2009 2:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I always see the hitting coach as more of a Swing Coach who helps guys analyze the mechanical problems in their swings and helps with approach to a lesser degree, especially with established players.
As has been stated, these veteran hackers that the Giants have assembled aren’t going to listen that much on their approach. they don’t watch video on approach, they watch it on mechanics. changing the hitting coach isn’t going to do much if the organizational philosophy stays the same.
The Org Philosophy needs to change to emphasize patience and those type of players need to be acquired (at least to a much greater degree than now exists). That philosophy needs to be preached and developed from Rookie Ball to the Majors.
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 12, 2009 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt even "organizational philosophy" matters that much
The Giants keep drafting and signing undisciplined hackers. I think the results would have been quite similar even if they’d been drafted/signed by, say, Oakland.
Although, I suppose it’s a lot easier to teach people to be undisciplined than to teach them to be disciplined. So maybe that’s part of what’s going on.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 12, 2009 4:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you’re partly wrong here – you aren’t going to totally transform someone, but I believe the attitudes and expectations picked up in a young players first few years of professional ball can have a significant impact. Especially if the same messages are consistently delivered by the coaching staff as one goes up through the ranks.
Drafting only hackers is problematic though for sure, if you want a disciplined approach in the bigs.
Duane Kuiper: Hall Of Fame broadcaster.
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 12, 2009 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m rereading Moneyball at the moment, and they put a bunch of emphasis on the organizational philosophy of being patient. When they first started implementing it, supposedly they made demands on their minor league clubs to improve their walks and patience and had success throughout their whole system in the first year of doing it…
by Missing Barry on Aug 12, 2009 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, as long as we're quoting chapter and verse
Didn’t Beane also say that you’d have to get a guy when he was still in diapers to really teach him to be a patient hitter?
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 12, 2009 7:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ll let you know when I’m finished rereading it. I’m only in the 5th chapter…
by Missing Barry on Aug 12, 2009 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is news to me. The season is nearly over, why hasn’t anyone mentioned this yet?
by dogdays on Aug 11, 2009 8:26 AM PDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
Excellent collection of stats. Could someone please email it to the front office? I don’t think they’re aware.
And also – DON’T SWING AT THE FIRST PITCH EVERY TIME, PLEASE, GIANTS HITTERS!
It's my blarg! Quick Pitch
And I tweet (more often then I blarg).
by can of corn on Aug 11, 2009 8:59 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
“Could someone please email it to the front office? I don’t think they’re aware.”
I’d love to say you’re being naive, but I honestly believe this to be true.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Aug 11, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not naive – just spanning the sar-chasm.
It's my blarg! Quick Pitch
And I tweet (more often then I blarg).
by can of corn on Aug 11, 2009 4:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
they are aware (in all likelihood). they just don’t care.
Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants
by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 12, 2009 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
giants would be right up there with the bums, phillies etc
The giants team batting average is 262. That is with their crappy approach at the plate. If they became more selective, the would increase their batting average, take more walks, score more runs and win more games. If they would just move upto maybe 20th in the league instead of dead last in walks, they project out to have at least 4 to 5 more wins. So these guys are not bad, the pitching is good, the hitters have ability, they have no approach. Pablo can still hit 330 with a crappy approach, but Bengie’s average drops precipitously by swinging at crappy pitches, and we all know his OBP makes him one of the worst guys to every be in a key hitting slot.
by bradleybear on Aug 11, 2009 9:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
What’s going to be depressing will be sitting down at the end of the year, wondering how many games this team could have won with a halfway-decent lineup. An average offense would go buck-wild with the pitching staff we have.
by gvp914 on Aug 11, 2009 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm a pretty big optimist
And there’s no way I could ever defend these hacks. It’s amazing how demoralizing this offense is. And it’s “nice” to see that the numbers back up what our eyes have been showing us.
"Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense."
Only [hella] games left until the end of Zito's [no, make that Rowand's] contract.
Adoptive father of "Poncho" Villalona: This Angel don't fly. Nothing about him is light.
by thehavenot on Aug 11, 2009 9:56 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Freddy Sanchez @ SS
I would hope this us being considered. Sanchez has 55 ML starts at SS, and it is obvious that he would be a defensive improvement over Renteria, if not Uribe. By making this change, we could field the following lineup:
1. Black Abe Lincoln, 2b
2. Winn/Lewis LF
3. Sanchez SS
4. Pablo 3b
5. Garko 1b
6. Nate RF
7. Bengie c
8. Rowand CF
maybe not a huge improvement Obp wise, but an improvement nonetheless.
Don't play a dangerous game.
by Hul10 on Aug 11, 2009 10:19 AM PDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
That would be the worst defensive infield in baseball
by superk1ng on Aug 11, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would guess that Velez would give up 2 runs on defense for every 1 run he gives on offense. CLANK
It's my blarg! Quick Pitch
And I tweet (more often then I blarg).
by can of corn on Aug 11, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
When I saw this line up, I heard the “Keystone Cops” music. Is that wrong ?
My adopted son Matt Downs . Ranked as the 24th best prospect in the Giants farm system by Baseball America !!
by nvsfg on Aug 11, 2009 10:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think you'll find that most people on here are Giants fans.
So, no thanks.
Forsan et haec olim meminisse iuvabit... Maybe.
by Mayor of 311 on Aug 11, 2009 11:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks
In the four years I’ve been reading this site, I’ve managed to figure that out.
Brilliant sarcasm aside, you all really think that Sanchez would be worse than Renteria at short? Why?
Don't play a dangerous game.
by Hul10 on Aug 11, 2009 1:54 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
Defensively, he might be. He’s a second baseman for a reason (Obviously, the slick-fielding jack wilson was ss in pittsburgh, but still). And then there’s superk1ng’s point, that the infield would be full of failplays. And once velez comes back to earth, his hitting wouldn’t make up for the CLANK.
VOTE SANDOVAL
Adopted Giant: Henry Sosa
by raisingcain on Aug 12, 2009 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It might be bad
But I’d like to see it just one game to know for sure. It’s not going to break the season if it fails, but it could be a big help if it succeeds.
"The questions are so stupid. I don't believe in rivalries. I don't believe in curses. Wake up the damn Bambino, maybe I'll drill him in the ass."
- Pedro Martinez, asked about the Curse of the Bambino
by achiappanza on Aug 13, 2009 7:39 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

"It is amazing how much can be accomplished if no one cares who gets the credit." - Coach John Wooden
by Yoyo on Aug 11, 2009 12:14 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs

Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 11, 2009 1:01 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
WOW!!!!
Hopefully when we break ties with some of our vets these numbers will not be so bad next year. Replace Bengie with Posey, Winn with more Bowker/Lewis, and having Sanchez/Garko for a full year should help.
I agree that Lansford can’t change these guys, we just have a lineup full of hackers! One, two, maybe even three agressive hitters can be a good thing. Surround Pablo with some patient hitters and he could lead the league in RBIs but a whole lineup with no plate discipline has been very frustrating
by OTTOMATIC on Aug 11, 2009 2:09 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Ditto! (WOW)
I’ve looked at OBP from players on other teams before, as well as K and BB rates, but this display is pretty amazing. If fans can lay this stuff out for them, why can’t “professional” coaches do the same?
Only when I am eliminated by MIke Krukow will my life's work be complete
by NateisGreat on Aug 11, 2009 2:25 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
A+
Bonus points for blatantly stealing from Grant’s Point/Counterpoint series.
/breathlessly awaits return of Point/Counterpoint hijinks
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Aug 11, 2009 4:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
The post strongly suggests one thing for sure!
You have to shake-up these hitters, and eventhough Lanceford was a hardnosed player, he has to go, if not right now sooner. He can stay in the giants organization, he is a good guy to have around, but we need to find the hitting coach that will teach these guys patience. Barry bonds comes to mind. If not Barry, I’m sure there are others.
by bradleybear on Aug 11, 2009 9:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s only if you think these guys, as old as they are and already at the MLB level, can learn patience at this point? I would argue it’s a skill a player needs when they enter the MLB, and it’s Sabean’s fault for acquiring a bunch of hacks.
by Missing Barry on Aug 12, 2009 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How the fuck can you sit at your computer for (i assume) an hour or so,
and already have this figured out? Our management is getting paid MILLIONS OF FUCKING DOLLARS and is in charge of a multi-million dollar annual enterprise, and some random fan on a message board ALREADY knows more about the lineup than they do! And if anyone thinks this isn’t the case, I ask you to go look at any interview done of either sabean or bochy. Neither one of them knows nor gives a fuck about things like BB/K and PPA.
Jesus christ, where else on earth is this level of blind incompetence tolerated? Not even in other sports, where your ass would be fired for running out an offense THIS shitty for FIVE STRAIGHT YEARS. Imagine the corollary in the NFL or NBA- it simply would not stand. How is this possible in 2009? I guess as long as the money’s coming in there doesn’t need to be a change.
Extremely proud adoptive parent of Paul E. Stanley, deserved all-star and hacker extraordinaire
Thanks to roger
I've never been happier to have Crabs
by bondslegend on Aug 12, 2009 10:07 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the feedback peeps
I’m out of the country now (and glad, given a quick glance at the box score). At some point, this organization needs to make a fundamental change.
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
by Aadik on Aug 12, 2009 10:36 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’m sorry to hear this team’s offense drove you to denounce your citizenship.
"He is Tim Lincecum...the Most Interesting Pitcher in the World."
by Kitspool on Aug 12, 2009 11:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If GWB is re-elected this Giants team doesn’t change it’s hacktastic ways, I’m moving to Canada!
We're all basically Pedro Feliz.
by SF Pete on Aug 13, 2009 6:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Every time I see the title
I want it to be:
Taking a pitch: A short look at the flailings of the SF Giants
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
by marcello on Aug 12, 2009 12:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Let me ask something and point out something: How often do the Giants (statistically) swing at the first pitch? And how many of those first pitches are strikes?
The whole reason behind swinging at the first pitch is because pitchers know it’s important to try and get an 0-1 count, and in a lot of cases (not all), a batter can look for a first pitch fastball.
But let me also offer a counter: Maybe the Giants WERE sitting on first pitches…and maybe it didn’t help.
I offer as a preliminary bit of evidence, the second game of the season: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/playbyplay?gameId=290408126&full=1&inning=0
37 batters: 31 took the first pitch. Result? Loss 4-2 with six hits, and three walks.
Because of this, I’m going to do what no one else apparently has readily available: A look at what actually happens on first pitches: Hit, Miss, Foul, Out, Ball, Called Strike, or Hit Batter. I’ll also pay special attention to April to see if Carney might have ingrained this mindset, and it got lost as the team in April was ridiculously putrid offensively with the mindset.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Now you can follow SFDugout.com on Twitter and Facebook!•
by BruteSentiment on Aug 12, 2009 1:32 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
April numbers:
(Disclaimer: This is my count…it appears I missed five PA somewhere, so these numbers are approximate, but enough of a size to get an idea)
Total PA: 735 Swing: 248 (33.7%) No Swing: 487 (66.3%)
Hit: 32 (4.4%)
Swing&Miss: 57 (7.8%)
Foul: 95 (12.9%)
In Play-Out: 58 (7.9%; does not include sacrifices)
Sacrifice: 6 (0.8%)
Ball: 295 (40.1%)
Strike Looking: 189 (25.7%)
HBP: 3 (0.4%)
BABIP: .356
I’ll do the rest of the months later…I’m on vacation in New York, Dammit!
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Now you can follow SFDugout.com on Twitter and Facebook!•
by BruteSentiment on Aug 12, 2009 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But let me also offer a counter: Maybe the Giants WERE sitting on first pitches…and maybe it didn’t help…I’ll also pay special attention to April to see if Carney might have ingrained this mindset, and it got lost as the team in April was ridiculously putrid offensively with the mindset
This seems to be entirely based on the claim that the Gaints hit worse in April than they did during the rest of the year, which is simply not true:
Giants’ line in April: .254/.317/.380.
Giants’ line since April: .262/.308/.387.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
by Cookyman on Aug 12, 2009 5:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Their batting average was lower in April!
GROUGTHINK ALERT
by groug on Aug 12, 2009 5:57 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But they scored runs less...
The final score almost never lets walks determine wins.
However, my point comes from the assumption that more patience, which has then turned into ‘taking the first pitch,’ is something the Giants have done, and it did nothing to help the team.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Now you can follow SFDugout.com on Twitter and Facebook!•
by BruteSentiment on Aug 12, 2009 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
OK, this is sort of bugging me
If the Giants brass’s idea of “patience” is “taking the first pitch,” they’re imbeciles.
This is basic game theory. If you always do the same thing and your opponent can predict it, he will kick your ass. If you play poker and never bluff, no one will call you anymore.
Swinging at the first pitch is a lot like bluffing in poker. It’s usually a bad idea, but if you do it the correct percentage of the time, you will produce a lot better results than if you never do it. And if you actually have some, you know, pitch recognition skills, and can predict to some extent whether a pitch is a strike or not, you’ll do even better by swinging at GOOD first pitches. (I know that this is beyond the capabilities of the Giants’ offense. I’m just saying.)
The essence of plate discipline is not swinging at pitches you can’t hit. Generally speaking, the hittability of a pitch will be proportional to how well the batter is doing in the count. But the desirability of making contact is INVERSELY proportional to how well the batter is doing in the count.
The actual payoff from making contact with pitch N of an at-bat is, in general, pretty similar no matter what the count is. Average, slugging percentage on contact, etc go way up when the hitter is ahead in the count, because most batters get choosier about what they swing at.
The value of real plate discipline— not fake “taking before the pitch is even thrown” plate discipline— isn’t just drawing walks, it’s that hitters make more contact when they’re ahead in the count and less contact when they’re behind in the count. There’s a good reason why selective hitters get higher batting averages on balls in play— they’re doing their work early in the at-bat, either by swinging at pitches in their happy zone, or passing on them if their out of said happy zone so that they’ll get another try later on.
If you’re just taking a pitch without even paying attention to where (or what type) it is, you’re not doing work at all. You’re just praying that you get lucky and the pitcher misses the zone. Unless the opposing pitcher has serious control problems, or you’re Jack Hannahan and you just can’t hit, that’s dumb.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 13, 2009 12:22 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
What Paul says
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
by baetown415 on Aug 13, 2009 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
While I agree with this
If a player has an obvious flaw, it can be beneficial to try to play the statistics to your advantage around that flaw.
IE Sheirholtz. He’s a sucker for that low and in breaking ball. A smart player would say “You know what, I’m swinging and missing at this pitch a LOT, and it’s making me look foolish. They know this about me – and I’m gonna see that pitch a lot. I’m stop swinging at shit inside until they stop throwing it”
That’s called making an adjustment – and it’s a mental “stop doing A, start doing B” that can happen instantly. Sure, Nate may strike out a few times on a pitch that grabs that inside corner – but it’s the type of thing where you have to be willing to trust the scouting report on yourself and be willing to make the mental abrupt change to alter that scouting report. It doesn’t require becoming a better player.
Ie the parts of your game that you don’t have the talent to be good at you should at least be able to play the statistics to be better at. It’s called making up for your deficiencies.
by FairweatherFan on Aug 13, 2009 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another example
If the scouting report on Rowand says “swings at the first pitch 75% of the time” You can bet other teams aren’t gonna throw him something in the zone.
So a smart Rowand (or Landsford) would say – okay, were gonna fuck that up. Aaron, today you are going to take the 1st pitch in your 1st two AB’s, I don’t care HOW fat it looks.
So pitcher throws some shit up there the first two AB’s, and Rowand takes. Now the opposing team is gonna say “well fuck, so much for that scouting report” and have to change their strategy. It’s back and forth, tit for tat – the thinking part of baseball. It’s the difference between pitching and throwing, hitting and swinging.
I’m not sure why this is such a hard concept to understand.
by FairweatherFan on Aug 13, 2009 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, in a perfect world where you can somehow always predict what the pitcher is going to do, deciding whether to swing or not before seeing the pitch might be a good idea. In real life, it isn’t. Maybe the pitcher knows Rowand is hacky, but still wants to start the AB with a strike, because that’s what pitchers do most of the time, even with a hacky hitter at the plate. Or maybe he tries to throw a slider low and away and hangs it right in the middle of the plate, but Rowand doesn’t swing because he decided to take the pitch. Mind games may be a part of baseball, but the basic aspects of hitting – recognizing the speed, location, and break of the pitch, deciding whether it’s hittable or not, adjusting your swing according to what you know about the pitch – come first. If you can’t do that, all the mind games in the world aren’t going to help you.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Aug 13, 2009 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's why it's about playing the percentages
Sure, sometimes they might throw you a strike anyway – and you end up taking it. Big deal.
If they are, more often than not, throwing you something out of the zone on the 1st pitch because, more often than not, you swing at the first pitch – then guess what ?
More often than not, if you take that 1st pitch, it’s gonna be a ball. You do that a few times, and they will adjust – then you have to adjust. Rinse and repeat. A smart player says “I’ve been offering at a lot of 1st pitches and getting fooled lately, I’m gonna lay off today” just cause they happen to then throw that player a strike doesn’t mean it was a flawed strategy.
Nothing is absolute – and sometimes you’re gonna look like a retard watching a get-it in fastball cruise down the middle of the plate.
But being a successful pitcher/hitter is about more than just talent – it’s about not being predictable. In order to not be predictable, you need to purposefully break patterns that you observe yourself falling into. No one is good enough to tell the opposing player what they are gonna do.
Sometimes for a player that might mean deciding to take certain pitches before ever stepping into the box.
by FairweatherFan on Aug 13, 2009 6:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If they are, more often than not, throwing you something out of the zone on the 1st pitch because, more often than not, you swing at the first pitch – then guess what?
Here’s the thing: 100% of major league hitters are more likely to take a ball than they are to swing at it. 100%. Chris Davis, Pablo Sandoval, and even Bengie Molina are all more likely to take a ball than they are to swing at it. So throwing a first pitch ball is always more likely to cause a 1-0 count than it is to cause a 0-1 count.
If the difference between players were as extreme as you make it out to be, if Rowand really did have an established record of swinging at the first pitch 75% of the time, then yeah – at some point pitchers would almost never throw him first pitch strikes, and at that point it would be smart of Rowand to completely stop swinging at them and enjoy a buttload of 1-0 counts. But in real baseball it doesn’t work like that. No hitter is that hacky, and no pitcher is that careful with his first pitch. Once in a while it might be useful to take a gamble based on what you think the pitcher is going to do, but if that’s the only thing you’ve got, it’s not going to work.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Aug 13, 2009 7:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The correct way to go is not to say "hey, I took last time and I'm supposed to take 50% of the time, I'll swing this time"
It’s to actually RANDOMIZE your decisionmaking at the appropriate probability levels. In the above situation (obviously you shouldn’t be first-pitch swinging 50% of the time, but bear with me) you flip a coin, or the mental equivalent. Pick a team on the out-of-town scoreboard and guess whether the total runs in their game are odd or even. Or whatever.
“Purposefully breaking patterns” is in fact a suboptimal game-theoretic strategy.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 14, 2009 1:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's only suboptimal
in the game theory sense though. When you are playing against (in this case) a pitcher who is playing a strategy that cannot be exploited.
rock-scissors-paper is a great example of this. The GT optimum strategy is to totally randomize your choices. You cannot be exploited and you will always win 1/3 lose 1/3 tie 1/3. However, if your opponent is just a regular person, not a game theory nerd they might be using a pattern that can be exploited.
I believe the correct meta strategy as a hitter is to use the GT optimium as a starter, but be prepared to exploit any weaknesses/patterns that show up.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
by zenbitz on Aug 14, 2009 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, I suppose it bears keeping in mind
If the pitcher is like tipping his pitches to the point that you can predict when it’s a fastball or offspeed before the ball leaves his hand, obviously you aren’t going to rely on game theory to figure out whether to swing or not— you’re going to rely on the (much better) information you’ve already got.
Players do have to read the scouting reports on the opposing pitcher, but unfortunately most of them are smart enough to not always attack hitters the same way, so that probably won’t get you very far. Most of the time, it’s just guesswork in a uniform.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 15, 2009 1:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If he’s swinging at a ton breaking ball in the dirt, it’s because he can’t recognize they’re going to break. So basically, you’re saying he should just lay off all pitches inside, just to make sure he doesn’t chase any curveballs. You really think anyone can hit well without ever swinging at a pitch inside?
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Aug 13, 2009 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I recognize that he is swinging and missing because he doesn't see that it's a breaking ball
And yes, when a player gets to the point that nate has been at certain points this year where he just looks foolish to anyone w/ a good down and in breaking ball he should start automatically taking pitches inside. You’ve gotta fight the scouting report if you want to be a successful player despite holes -
And all players have holes.
by FairweatherFan on Aug 13, 2009 6:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
“If he’s swinging at a ton breaking ball in the dirt, it’s because he can’t recognize they’re going to break.”
Another strike against Sabean. Relying on players who can’t recognize a ball is going to break. A couple of not hugely hyped prospects do it and fail? That’s fine, not much was expected of them anyways. 10 years of players and we’ve produced 1 (Sandoval) capable of either laying off those pitches or actually hitting them? At that point I think it becomes a reflection of a poorly run franchise…
by Missing Barry on Aug 13, 2009 7:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, lemme tellz ya about walking...
If you stand in the front of the batter’s box and crowd the plate I can guarantee at least 2 balls out of the first 2 pitches: one pitch will be a brushback, the other a lame attempt to establish the wide strike. Once you get to 2-0 (or 1-1 if the ump is a wide plate guy), you will have your best shot at a hittable strike — so look for the best pitch you can handle. If the pitcher throws heat he’ll go with that, if he throws offspeed, look for a low pitch out of the zone and take it. If the count is 2-1, the next pitch will be another brushback; if the count is 3-0, the pitch will be a change-up down the middle. If you haven’t already walked, the 3-1 will be a challenge fastball from the hard-thrower or a 3-1 offspeed inside from the soft-thrower. If the count gets to 3-2, the hard-thrower will come with heat inside; the lefty will work the plate away with a change. If you still aren’t on base, the hard-thrower will try a curve or slider outside, the soft-thrower will come with the challenge fastball inside — both options are usually out of the strike zone.
by hokysmksbw on Aug 13, 2009 6:42 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well dude, you've got it all figured out!
You should be playing baseball!
by FairweatherFan on Aug 13, 2009 6:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I completely agree that "Patience" is not "Taking the first pitch"
However, the concept was mentioned several times in this thread, starting with the very original post which goes so far as to put out a First PItch Strike % (something which is a pretty useless stat, IMO, because there are many ways to get in a 0-1 hole, not the least of which is taking a strike).
The problem is, again, I agree with this statement 100%:
The value of real plate discipline— not fake "taking before the pitch is even thrown" plate discipline— isn’t just drawing walks, it’s that hitters make more contact when they’re ahead in the count and less contact when they’re behind in the count. There’s a good reason why selective hitters get higher batting averages on balls in play— they’re doing their work early in the at-bat, either by swinging at pitches in their happy zone, or passing on them if their out of said happy zone so that they’ll get another try later on.
…but, if you look at almost every stat quoted, they use the walk as the benchmark except for two: The first pitch stat, and the out-of-the-zone swing, which is the one I’d by far place the most emphasis on when talking about plate discipline.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Now you can follow SFDugout.com on Twitter and Facebook!•
by BruteSentiment on Aug 13, 2009 9:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, walks are much simpler to understand and to quantify than out-of-the-zone swings. Isolated Slugging is a better measure of power than home runs are, but, while everybody knows that Bonds hit 73 HR’s in 2001, I’m guessing that not many know that he also had a record high .536 IsoSLG. It’s just the way it is.
Also, walks are important. They affect games. Really.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Aug 13, 2009 9:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
...but the Giants are frigging godawful at O-Swing
Most of them couldn’t recognize a strike if it bit them in the balls.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 14, 2009 1:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Juggernate can and has.
Duane Kuiper: Hall Of Fame broadcaster.
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 14, 2009 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
although technically
their OBP was 9 points higher.
Now, an April’s worth of sample size, even for a whole team (is it even mostly the same team?… April seemed kinda Burriss-y) isn’t worth much, but to say they tried it and it didn’t work – even though their offensive numbers were BETTER seems a little disingenious.
Not to mention PaulThomas’ awesome post below which makes the whole comparison invalid anyway.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
by zenbitz on Aug 13, 2009 9:20 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
and by
below, I mean directly above.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
-------
PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
by zenbitz on Aug 13, 2009 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm taking time from my New York vacation to put together all the numbers...
…For some reason, sites like MLB.com and ESPN don’t list them.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Now you can follow SFDugout.com on Twitter and Facebook!•
by BruteSentiment on Aug 13, 2009 8:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
First of all, like PT said, patience =/= taking the first pitch. Patience is a skill, not a conscience decision, and whether or not we did take more first pitches in April, we were not, in any way, shape, or form, a patient team during that month.
Secondly, while we technically did average fewer runs per game in April than we did the rest of the year, the difference is completely meaningless. We averaged 3.85 runs per game in April, and 4.02 the rest of the year. That may sound like a substantial difference, but think about it this way: we scored 77 runs in 20 games in April – if we had scored a mere four runs more, if we had turned one bases loaded fly out into a HR, at some point during these 20 games, our April runs per game would have jumped to 4.05 (81 runs in 20 games), higher than the rest of the year. If one swing of the bat can completely change the conclusions of your study, then there is no point in trying to reach a conclusion.
Thirdly (can you say thirdly? Sounds weird), like I showed before, we didn’t actually hit worse in April. So the very slight difference in runs scored is because of other factors – baserunning, opposing team’s fielding, clutch hitting – non of which really have anything to do with patience.
The final score almost never lets walks determine wins? Well, walk-off plays are really the only ones that could be accurately said to “determine” a win, but are you really saying that walks almost never affect wins and losses?
In the 6th inning of our last game, with runners on first and third, back-to-back walks from Travis Ishikawa and Fred Lewis drove in Freddy Sanchez, extending our lead to 2 runs. Lincecum gave up two runs in the next 3 innings – if it hadn’t been for those two walks, we probably would have lost the game.
Two games before that, Jonathan Sanchez issued back-to-back walks to Casey Blake and Orlando Hudson in the 4th inning. Both of them scored that inning. We lost the game by two runs.
Three games before that, we came into the 8th inning with a 5-3 lead. Jeremy Affeldt walked Joey Votto to lead off the inning. Votto scored that inning, making it 5-4. In the 9th inning, with one out and a runner on first, Wilson blew the lead by walking three Reds hitters in a row. All three hitters scored that inning, and we lost the game.
11 games before that, in the third inning, Ryan Sadowski walked Seth Smith to lead off the inning. Smith scored later that inning In the inning, with Todd Helton at 1st base, Sadowski walked Hawpe, moving Helton to 2nd base. Helton scored from second that inning on a 2 out single. Without the walk, Helton wouldn’t have scored (the next batter made an out). We lost the game by two runs.
And 4 games before that, with a runner on first and two outs, Lincecum walked Garret Anderson. Next batter hit a 3-run HR, which wouldn’t have happened without the walk. We lost by two runs.
So, in the last 20 games, I count 5 games (which translate to 40 games determined by walks over a full season) in which walks had a clear, direct impact on whether we won or lost. I’m not talking about games were walks were worth three runs and we lost by five, games where walks may or may not have tired the pitcher, etc. Clear, direct impact. And this on a team that averages fewer walks per game than almost any other team (hackiest offense in the majors, pitching is 15th in BB/9, so I’m guessing we’re around 25th in total walks per game).
Now, I don’t know if the last 20 games are a good example. Maybe in all of the other 90 games we’ve played, walks were a bit more meaningful, affecting a win every 3 games, which translates to a total of 35 games determined by walks in a 110 game period – or about 50 in a 162 games. Or maybe walks were less meaningful, resulting in a win only once every 6 games, which would result in a total of 20 games determined by walks – or about 30 over a full season. And even if walks were way, way less meaningful in the 90 games I haven’t looked at – determining a win only once every 10 games – even then, you’d get 14 games determined by walks in the 110 games we’ve played, or 20 games over a full season. In any case, I think it’s pretty clear that saying that “the final score almost never lets walks determine wins” is utterly and inarguably wrong. The final score, unlike most baseball fans, does not underrate the walk.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Aug 13, 2009 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
First of all...
Thanks for falling in. My comment about the final score almost never lets walks determine wins is because a score is strictly about the final score listing only runs; obviously EVERYTHING in the game affects runs from walks to defense to bench coaches getting tossed, but…boy, when I have to explain a joke, it’s bad.
But to go to your more related comments:
First of all, like PT said, patience =/= taking the first pitch. Patience is a skill, not a conscience decision, and whether or not we did take more first pitches in April, we were not, in any way, shape, or form, a patient team during that month.
Then for heck’s sake join me in stopping this ongoing use of people complaining about the team not taking the first pitch enough!
Secondly, while we technically did average fewer runs per game in April than we did the rest of the year, the difference is completely meaningless. We averaged 3.85 runs per game in April, and 4.02 the rest of the year. That may sound like a substantial difference, but think about it this way: we scored 77 runs in 20 games in April – if we had scored a mere four runs more, if we had turned one bases loaded fly out into a HR, at some point during these 20 games, our April runs per game would have jumped to 4.05 (81 runs in 20 games), higher than the rest of the year. If one swing of the bat can completely change the conclusions of your study, then there is no point in trying to reach a conclusion.
Perhaps, but again, I’m being pushed to do it because of this ridiculous assertion by others who keep complaining about first pitch stuff.
Thirdly (can you say thirdly? Sounds weird), like I showed before, we didn’t actually hit worse in April. So the very slight difference in runs scored is because of other factors – baserunning, opposing team’s fielding, clutch hitting – non of which really have anything to do with patience.
Yes, you can say thirdly.
No, really, you are right. And my initial observation was flawed outside of the fact the team was indeed doing the whole first pitch thing, and while the team didn’t hit worse doing it…it also did not help them, which was the main goal of the observation.
I do agree with the general assertion of this thread, that the team needs better plate discipline. But I do not like how people equate that to things like walks and first pitch taking, which clearly were the statistics that this thread was based upon. IMO, walks are a byproduct of plate discipline; they aren’t the goal, the goal as paul indicated is to get better pitches to HIT. Therefore, a team could theoretically never draw a walk and still be accomplishing the goal of plate discipline: getting pitches to hit and hitting them.
The corollary with that is focusing too much on plate discipline can hurt a player by making them predetermine whether or not they will take before a pitch is thrown, and thus possibly making them miss an easy pitch to hit.
The ONLY time I feel a player should be taking pitches in a predetermined way is the first batter or two of a pitcher’s stint. But outside of that, they shouldn’t need to do so to ‘see’ their stuff; they should see it watching other player’s ABs. That, unfortunately, is another trait too often lost in modern baseball.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Now you can follow SFDugout.com on Twitter and Facebook!•
by BruteSentiment on Aug 13, 2009 9:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I do agree with the general assertion of this thread, that the team needs better plate discipline. But I do not like how people equate that to things like walks and first pitch taking, which clearly were the statistics that this thread was based upon.
Well, first pitch taking is clearly not a statistic this thread was based upon, since that statistic isn’t actually available anywhere, and therefore wasn’t brought up by anyone (except for you, actually). The stat that was brought up was first pitch strike% – the percentage of AB that begin 0-1. That stat is important because starting an AB 1-0 instead of 0-1 significantly increases your chances of getting a hit or a walk, as I’m sure you know. People did assume that the reason we’re the worst in the majors in first strike% is that we’re the hackiest team in the majors – a very logical assumption, in my opinion, and one that is backed up by facts – there is a clear connection between O-swing% and first pitch strike% (and we’re the worst in the majors in both of them).
IMO, walks are a byproduct of plate discipline; they aren’t the goal, the goal as paul indicated is to get better pitches to HIT. Therefore, a team could theoretically never draw a walk and still be accomplishing the goal of plate discipline: getting pitches to hit and hitting them.
Don’t put your words into PT’s mouth keyboard – he said that the value of plate discipline isn’t just walks, but also getting better pitches to hit. There is only one goal, and that is to help the team. If you’re in position to take a walk, you take it, because walks help the team. If you get a pitch you can hit, you hit it, because hits help the team. Now, you’re right that it’s theoretically possible for a team to never draw a walk and still be patient, just like it’s theoretically possible for it to only hit 76 HR’s and still have a ton of power (if it has 500 doubles or something) – but neither one is likely. And if you were to talk about our offense’s lack of power, wouldn’t the fact that we’ve only hit 76 HR’s be one of the first things you’d mention? Even though it’s theoretically possible to only hit 76 HR’s and still be a good power team? Well this is the exact same thing.
You’re also right that hitters, including patient ones, don’t go out there looking for a walk. Walks are special that way – the best hitters can draw them 120 times a year without really trying. That doesn’t change the fact that they do draw them, and that they help their teams by doing so.
The corollary with that is focusing too much on plate discipline can hurt a player by making them predetermine whether or not they will take before a pitch is thrown, and thus possibly making them miss an easy pitch to hit.
But, like PT said, this is the difference between real plate discipline and fake one. And, like I said before, patience is a skill – not a choice. It’s a skill that sometimes can be taught at a very young age, but in most cases not even then. Taking this team of hackers and telling them to focus on plate discipline is only slightly less laughable than taking the 2008 Giants and asking them to hit two HR’s every game. Odds are it won’t make any difference, and even if it does, it won’t necessarily be a good one, because asking players to do something they’re not good at isn’t generally a good idea. But coaching isn’t the issue. If you want a patient team – you sign patient players. It’s that simple. You find players who have shown good patience in the past, and you pay them money to play for your team, and then you have a patient team. The Giants have failed miserably at that. And that is, or at least should be, the true point of this post.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Aug 13, 2009 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’re also right that hitters, including patient ones, don’t go out there looking for a walk. Walks are special that way – the best hitters can draw them 120 times a year without really trying. That doesn’t change the fact that they do draw them, and that they help their teams by doing so.
You call them special, I call it an inaccurate measuring stick. For instance, by that reasoning, a guy who draws 25 unintentional walks in a 600+ PA season sounds like he must suck. But Vladimir Guerrero is generally considered one of the top hitters in baseball.
For me, close enough is not good enough.
Well, first pitch taking is clearly not a statistic this thread was based upon, since that statistic isn’t actually available anywhere, and therefore wasn’t brought up by anyone (except for you, actually). The stat that was brought up was first pitch strike% – the percentage of AB that begin 0-1. That stat is important because starting an AB 1-0 instead of 0-1 significantly increases your chances of getting a hit or a walk, as I’m sure you know. People did assume that the reason we’re the worst in the majors in first strike% is that we’re the hackiest team in the majors – a very logical assumption, in my opinion, and one that is backed up by facts – there is a clear connection between O-swing% and first pitch strike% (and we’re the worst in the majors in both of them).
There is a clear implication that the first pitch strike% is all about taking the first pitch. What’s the best way to guarantee you don’t go 1-0? SWING. Unless you put the ball in play, the count has to go 0-1. Therefore, if you don’t go 1-0 enough, you are swinging too much.
And again with the close enough percentage. The O-swing% is on all ABs, not just the first pitch. If it is, as certain people that I’m not supposed to be putting words in the keyboard of, that players should be looking for a specific location on a first pitch and only swinging at that, then having the EXACT stat for that is a lot bigger than allowing assumptions to be based on dilutions of the statistic, as including swings on two-strike counts when a player should be expanding his zone to stay alive.
I don’t believe in ‘good enough’ or ‘close enough’ for measuring things, because they can be inaccurate. I’ll call it out when I see it. As PT so tastefully brought up an AIDS reference, we don’t test for AIDS, we test for a byproduct of it, an antibody USUALLY not found unless you have the HIV virus. But as a result, the test can lead to false positives, and I know someone who got one. I don’t like false positivies.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Now you can follow SFDugout.com on Twitter and Facebook!•
by BruteSentiment on Aug 14, 2009 6:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You call them special, I call it an inaccurate measuring stick. For instance, by that reasoning, a guy who draws 25 unintentional walks in a 600+ PA season sounds like he must suck. But Vladimir Guerrero is generally considered one of the top hitters in baseball.
So there’s this one player who’s (or actually used to be) really good even though he doesn’t draw a lot of walks, therefore walks are an “inaccurate measuring stick”? Walks are a fantastic measuring stick of a player’s ability to draw walks. If you’re wondering how good a player is at drawing walks, looking at his walk-drawing record is the first thing you ought to do. Are walks, alone, a good way to judge a player? No, of course not, and no has made this point in this thread or in any other thread on this site and I have absolutely no idea why you felt that you need to make that point. Vladimir Guerrero is (was) a great hitter, even though he didn’t draw that many walks. No one is arguing otherwise. So? Harmon Killebrew was a great hitter even though he wasn’t really good at getting hits. That doesn’t in any way change the fact that getting hits is an important part of hitting. If the reason this offense was terrible was that it were hitting .230, then this might post have been about our team’s lack of ability to get hits, and would probably look at K%, BABIP, etc. And the fact that Harmon Killebrew was a great hitter even though his AVG was around .240 a lot of the time wouldn’t be that relevant, would it?
Again, walks alone are not a sufficient measure of hitting talent. OPS (or other, better stats) would be better. Aadik could have made this post:
Hi, the Giants’ offense sucks. I wanted to find out why the Giants’ offense sucks, and apparently it’s because it has a .697 OPS, which is really bad. So that’s why we suck. Hope it’s all clear now.
But he didn’t, because that wouldn’t actually do anything to explain why our offense sucks. There’s no point in proving that out offense is bad – everybody knows that. This post tries to show what, specifically, we’re bad at – what other, better offenses are doing that we’re not doing.
And again with the close enough percentage. The O-swing% is on all ABs, not just the first pitch. If it is, as certain people that I’m not supposed to be putting words in the keyboard of, that players should be looking for a specific location on a first pitch and only swinging at that, then having the EXACT stat for that is a lot bigger than allowing assumptions to be based on dilutions of the statistic, as including swings on two-strike counts when a player should be expanding his zone to stay alive.
Yes, having an exact stat would be better. We don’t have one. We have a different one that has been proven to be very accurate. We also don’t have a perfect test for AIDS, but we have one that has been proven to be very accurate. We’ll use it until we find a better test. We’ll use this stat until we find a better stat. By your logic, we should stop testing for AIDS because our tests aren’t perfect. Or, if someone tested for AIDS (I really don’t like this example, though I realize you didn’t bring it up), he or she shouldn’t really be worried about it, because hey – maybe it’s a false positive. It could be, technically, so who knows.
If you don’t believe in good enough, you might as well throw away every study that’s ever been made, ever. We should always strive to improve our methods, but that doesn’t mean that we should ignore the ones we currently have. Otherwise we’d never get anything done.
HA HA HA LOOK AT ME I'M ALL HAPPY AND STUFF NO REALLY CAN WE STOP WITH THE COOKYMAN IS SAD JOKES?
:-) :-) :-)
by Cookyman on Aug 14, 2009 8:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uh, it's entirely logical to say both of the following
“The correct strategy is to take some first pitches and swing at others;
“This team does not take the first pitch enough.”
First pitch, you should be looking at a small chunk of the strike zone— 1/8 to 1/4 of it, basically, the part where you can do the most damage. Even assuming pitches are randomly distributed across the zone (they aren’t— for obvious reasons, pitchers tend to avoid areas hitters favor), your Z-Swing on first pitches should be probably not more than 33% or so, accounting a little for understandable mistakes. O-Swing obviously should be in the single digits.
As for walks, they’re so overwhelmingly correlated with plate discipline (not to mention useful in their own right) that denying the connection is like denying that HIV causes AIDS. You’re wrong, you look like a fool, and the only people who ever do it are people with some kind of agenda.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 14, 2009 1:36 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, really?
And exactly what agenda do I have? Are you really going to start throwing accusations just because I don’t agree with you? Wow, you started in this thread sounding reasonable…now you just sound like an ass, accusing me of that stuff.
And if your ‘agenda’ is that this team doesn’t take the first pitch enough, then I entirely disagree with you. And I also disagree with looking for such a small location on the plate. Players with excellent hand-eye coordination should be looking for speed, not location, because they can make the latter adjustment well. These are players like Pablo Sandoval, Nate Schierholtz and Bengie Molina. Only the players who don’t, the poorer hitters like Travis Ishikawa and Edgar Renteria, would be possibly helped by your theory.
"The knowledge of the game is inversely proportional to the price of the seat." ---Bill Veeck. •Now you can follow SFDugout.com on Twitter and Facebook!•
by BruteSentiment on Aug 14, 2009 6:43 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
DEATH PANELS!
by FairweatherFan on Aug 14, 2009 2:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Calm down
I haven’t “thrown” any “accusations” at anyone. I’m just making a friendly suggestion that you are edging in a direction that you really do not want to go.
The irony of this stuff about hand-eye coordination is that it’s precisely that attribute that would make those guys good late-count hitters (2-2, 3-2) if they weren’t petrified with the fear of ever getting there. (Well, OK, “good” in relative terms, anyway.)
If anything, being good at making contact once you’ve decided to swing means you should shrink your early-count zone down even further. If you had a hypothetical player (let’s call him Pedro Eckstein Suzuki) who could foul off any pitch he wanted to once he got to two strikes, he could shrink his “early-count strike zone” to the head of a pin without worrying about the consequences.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
by PaulThomas on Aug 15, 2009 2:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
a lot of teams hit worse in april when the ambient temperature around the league is lower.
Your post seemed to resonate with someone on the giants because they had a team meeting today just on this topic, and low and behold they took 9 walks. Amazingly that suddenly after this meeting all of the sudden the opposition pitchers cannot find the K zone. It seemed to help but Rowand did not get the message. Why did Flannery pinch hit Rowand for Schierholtz? Has Bochy poisoned the minds of the entire coaching staff, or did Bochy still have a direct line to Flannery? The umping was little league quality during this series, and fairly bad during the Cincy series.
by bradleybear on Aug 12, 2009 6:34 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Aug 12 -- Giants drew 9 walks, Dodgers drew 1.
Dodgers lose.
by hokysmksbw on Aug 13, 2009 1:03 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Man, I bet Aadik feels like a real idiot now.
"I been waitin' a long time for this! I been waitin' since the f**kin' amateurs!" --WILL "THE THRILL" CLARK
by Josh from Hollywood on Aug 13, 2009 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I renounce everything!
Jonathan Sanchez. He's left-handed, like Barry Zito. His fastball breaks 80, unlike Zito.
by Aadik on Aug 26, 2009 10:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs

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