Which bat would you rather acquire?
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 3:05 PM PDT
134 comments
Sorry for the rapid number of recent fanposts/shots, but my work has finally reached a bit of slow period and I can focus on some Giants talk. Anyhoo, here is my question, which player would you rather acquire at the trade deadline?
Player 1
31 years old, due 8 million in 09, 8 million in '10
329 PA's, .316 avg, .355 OBP, .477 SLG, .356 BABIP, .358 wOBA, 6 homers, 18 BB's to 45 K's, UZR of 3.2 (in NL)
Prior to this year had a 3 year avg of: .306/.340/.429, 1 HR per 73 PA, 84 BB's to 191 K's, OPS+ of 101, UZR of 4.0
Player 2
30 years old, due 5.8 million in 09 and then FA
319 PA's, .301 avg, .342 OBP, .480 SLG, .316 BABIP, .347 wOBA, 12 HR, 14 BB's to 40 K's, UZR of 2.3 (in AL)
Prior to this year had a 3 year avg of: .294/.336/.460, 1 HR per 34 PA, 74 BB to 198 K's, OPS+ of 103, UZR of 3.0
These two have a lot of similarities on paper, obviously there's a few smaller differences, but more or less hitters of similar ilk.
So who would you rather have??? Shocking answers after the jump.
Well, if you didn't figure it out already, Player 1 is Freddy Sanchez, who seems to be clamored for by a lot of Giants fans, even in a place with as many, some smart fans like McC.
Who is player 2 you ask? The last big bat we acquired in the middle of the season, Shea Hillenbrand.
Now, before you jump on the "BUT FREDDY PLAYS 2B!!!" train, I understand the positional relevance of both Freddy'z UZR as well as hitting stats given that he can play a premium position. However, the key point in all of this is to look at how Shea Hillenbrand ultimately faired in his career. No, I'm not saying all players with the "no walks, non-elite power" mindset are all destined for doom in their early 30's, but I do think it's worth taking a little wonderment about the "amazing Freddy Sanchez".
While Freddy does get points over Shea for playing 2B, he also due more money and would be on the payroll next year for 8 million (although if you like him, that might be a positive for you). He would also cost a bit more than Shea Hillenbrand via trade, due to the fact that there are multiple suitors (Rockies apparently willing to offer their 07 1st round pick, Weatherrs), Freddy was named an all-star, and most importantly Freddy hasn't been designated for assignment like Shea Hillenbrand was. In summation, not only is Freddy going to burn more money, he will cost a decent prospect.
Now, back to the whole falling apart as Shea did thing, let's take a look at Freddy Sanchez top 10 comps on BR.
1) Cotton Tierney (2B who after earning a 106 OPS+ in his age 27-29 years was out of baseball by 31 due to suckitude)
2) Butch Henline (C who had a 111 OPS+ through his age 27-30 years, basically sucked balls afterwards)
3) Robinson Cano (younger)
4) Don Padgett (C who has a 111 OPS+ through his age 25-28 seasons, OPS+ of 75 at age 29, then went to WWII and sucked upon return)
5) Fresco Thompson (2B with OPS+ of 93 in age 25-28 seasons, only got 210 PA's over the rest of his career)
6) Jeff Frye (2B with OPS+ of 93 from age 25-33, career done shortly after, also featured a vastly superior walk rate)
7) Earl Smith (C/2B with an OPS+ of 111 ages 24-30, terrible afterwards and out of baseball within 3 season)
8) Ted Easterly (OPS+ of 118 ages 24-29, poor at age 30, out of baseball at 31)
9) Alex Cintron (younger)
10) Johnny Estrada (I believe he is out of MLB by now, he used to be an all-star as well)
If you couldn't guess it by now, I don't like the idea of Freddy Sanchez as at all and am hoping to convert any of you Freddy Sanchez fans to my side.
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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Luckily, what we may or may not want doesn’t mean jack $@*%. Last I checked, there wasn’t a poll up on sfgiants.com asking whether we wanted to trade for Freddy Sanchez.
by AndOnTheDrums... on Jul 9, 2009 3:17 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I like baseballreference.com, but come on...
Tim Lincecum’s 10:
1. Johnny Beazley (966)
2. Bud Tinning (964)
3. Jack Sharrott (962)
4. Walter Clarkson (960)
5. Mark Fidrych (959)
6. Bob Spade (958)
7. Charlie Case (954)
8. Bill Wise (953)
9. Fred Smith (952)
10. Jerry Bell (952)
Um, yeah, that’s an accurate, relevant gauge. NEXT!
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Jul 9, 2009 3:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
it's a sign!
we should trade him before he gets injured!
by superk1ng on Jul 9, 2009 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
sure, but there are clearly some correct comps in Sanchez’s 10 (no. 1 for sure). I also think I laid out enough similarities offensively between Hillenbrand and Sanchez
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
BB-ref comps are useless.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, Shea wasn’t a BB ref comp, but would you deny there are a lot of similarities in their offensive skillsets? Walk rate, K-rate, contact rate, all pretty similar. Sanchez hits a bit better for avg, Shea a bit better for power
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Man, you’re telling me Freddy Sanchez hits like a career corner infielder… and plays a good second base? Where do I sign up?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 3:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
a career corner infielder whose bat disappeared after his prime. If Sanchez at 32 hits like Shea, he better learn to play catcher
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not sure why there’s any reason to believe that Freddy Sanchez’s career will follow Shea’s except that bb-ref’s comparisons (which are NOTORIOUSLY stupid at times) say they’re similar players.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Shea is not even a BB ref comp, I believe I said this 3x now. I came up with it on my own.
Which players would you comp Freddy Sanchez with?
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wait, what comp is it then? Just one you made up?
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 3:54 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hillenbrand?
Yeah, I didn’t say it was a perfect offensive comp, but the contact rates, walk rates, strikeout rates all were very similar.
Like I said (and Im being honest) perhaps you can give me a better one to examine
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 3:58 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, off the top of my head, I will be able to think of a perfect offensive comparison to Freddy Sanchez out of the millions of guys who have played major league baseball.
He might be about to head into a heavy decline. He wouldn’t be the first second baseman to do so. But his numbers this year show no real sign of one. He is likely to be worth his salary for this season and would be a huge upgrade over what we have right now. Reports seem to be that the price will not be particularly high.
If we’re talking Alderson+, sure that’s probably too much and I’d pass and try for Kennedy. But if it’s a package built around Sanchez, I don’t think that’s too big of a price to pay.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 4:03 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
wasnt shea in the 07 08 team wen we traded for him or something?
must be thinking of someone else
back in my day we wanted to be like magic larry now these days all you guys talk about is try to be like mike or becoming the next lebanon james
by big beaner on Jul 9, 2009 5:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My point is this...
The main point I’m trying to make here is the fact that players who derive their ENITRE offensive value from batting average tend not to age well (at least I believe so). Sanchez is one of those players, Shea had a bit more power, but was sort of similar in that respect.
For that reason, I’m not eager to jump at a 31 year that would cost X amount of prospects and 12 million in remaining salary
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The name being thrown around on the Rockies side is Eric Young Jr, a 24 year old outfielder with a career minor league OPS under .800. I think you might be overestimating the cost in terms of prospects.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
perhaps, although Eric Young Jr. is a pretty decent prospect. Career .374 OBP in the minors and he is 47/56 in SB attempts in a little over half a season.
Truth be told, if he was an avg defender (not sure how about his glove) I’d take him over Sanchez over the next year and a half
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s a C+ prospect. And Sickels mentions “defensive questions”.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
defensive questions could be an issue then. Perhaps he’ll be more suited for CF.
Also, now that he’s back to his 75-85 SB pace (only stole 46/62 last year….terrible) and stealing at his most efficient percentage ever, that might be enough to bring him to a B-…not that Sickels ratings are the end all be all’s anyway
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Colorado Springs is one of the better hitter’s parks in minor league baseball.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Colorado Springs is one of thebetterbest hitter’s parks
Insanity is just a state of mind.
by giants9107 on Jul 9, 2009 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
prospects sure do look better when they’re not on your team
by superk1ng on Jul 9, 2009 4:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also did not make BA’s Rockies top 10.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
probably overstated him then, either way, this post isn’t really about Eric Young Jr. anyway, it’s about the offensive sustainability of a BA dependent offensive player who whose BB/K rate the last 3 years has been below 0.40
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 4:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You said it was about the cost in prospects of that player, I pointed out that the cost does not appear to be very high.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 4:20 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
absolutely correct
Even then, at the cost of salary (12 million over 1.5 years left) Sanchez is not too appealing to me. His offensive game is a ticking time bomb
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 4:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
$4 million for the rest of this year is not a big deal. If he truly does fall off a cliff next year, $8 million could hurt, but I don’t think it’s a given that he will and if he does hit more or less to his career norms, it’s a steal.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Apparently Carlos Gonzalez name has also come up, albeit probably solely from the PIT side
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Especially the ones that aren’t by age.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Jul 11, 2009 2:56 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How can you remotely say that comp no. 1 is "correct for sure"?
Danged if that isn’t the most asenine thing I’ve read today, and I’ve seen some pathetic stuff.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Jul 9, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
similar track records, skill sets, position. Find me a better Freddy Sanchez comp
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hillenbrand never had a season with a WAR over 2.5.
Sanchez, other than last year, has never had one lower than 3.2
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 3:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
was talking about Cotton Tierney here, but your point remains valid I suppose
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
We’re talking about hitting. WAR includes a positional adjustment.
Adoptive parent of Noah Lowry.
:-(
by Cookyman on Jul 9, 2009 5:10 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your argument is based on circumstancial evidence at best
You say they are a similar player at the time of a potential deal, so that means they will both follow any deal in the same way. Baseball doesn’t work like that. Any player can get injured or get sucky at any time. You have to assume some risk. The reasons for wanting Hillenbrand were different than the reasons for wanting Sanchez. A key difference is positional and offensive need. Considering those, Sanchez is a lot lower risk, since he would be filling a position where we got scrubs at best.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Jul 9, 2009 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the most attractive thing about Sanchez
Is that he is SO much better than what we have had at 2b so far this season.
by FairweatherFan on Jul 9, 2009 3:21 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
that, and the fact that he comes pretty cheap(relatively speaking)
especially when you consider all the money that’s going to be coming off the books this offseason(winn, molina, randy johnson, lowry, howry)
by superk1ng on Jul 9, 2009 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
does he?
Rockies and Twins will also be in on him. I’d have enough of a problem just taking on his salary, let alone giving up multiple young players for him on top of that.
I would’ve been much happier with DeRosa
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
DeRosa is much older, and probably more likely due for a declining performance path, and it’s not like he’s way outperforming Sanchez now.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Jul 9, 2009 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s not outperforming Sanchez in any way.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
thats why he said its not like he is outperforming sanchez
Congrats to my soul mate and birth brother Zach Wheeler on being drafted into greatness. Should I just buy my Wheeler jersey now, or wait till my next birthday?
by TexasRanger on Jul 9, 2009 7:09 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
well yeah, but he made it sound like it was close… it’s not really.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 7:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think it is close
The only thing that matters when talking about players you covet is what they WILL do, not what they have done.
DeRosa’s RoS zips makes him with a .343
Sanchez is at .331
DeRosa is simply a more talented offensive player, I’d fully expect him to be better than Sanchez with the bat from here on out (clearly with his recent injury, it will be delayed)
Sanchez has the edge defensively, but on this club 2B defense means less than on a team like the Pirates, which could inflate Sanchez UZR ratings due to the frequency of their pitches allowing balls in play. The Giants on the other hand I believe are one of the top team’s in K’s and FB’s in baseball.
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 8:19 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
UZR takes the frequency of balls allowed in play into account, as I recall from the original article MGL wrote about it.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 8:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
okay, it still means that his proficiency to play defense means less for us given that he would get less chances.
While it might still mean he is better than DeRosa overall, DeRosa has the better bat and at a cheaper price
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 8:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s also not available anymore!
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah and injured.
I was just stating I would’ve preferred DeRosa is all. Obviously at this point, it doesn’t matter. Dan Uggla is the guy I want, but whether he’s available and at what price is a whole other matter
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 8:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’d like Uggla a lot too.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 8:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know Uggla might be available in the winter, but it would just be unconscionable for Florida to get rid of one of their best hitters in the midst of playoff chase that they are very much in. That sounds like the kind of deal that would bring Bowie Kuhn back from the grave just to veto.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Jul 9, 2009 9:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s fascinating to watch you two argue, since you both are BABIP-lovers and AVG-haters. I was entertained for several minutes.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
by Lyle on Jul 10, 2009 5:48 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
UZR
I believe it’s ultimately just a rating. How many runs a player is worth relative to average, meaning that just because Sanchez defense is wort h 6 more runs than average, that is only the case in actuality if he gets the exact number of plays as the average fielder (which on the Giants would likely be less play than average).
I could be wrong on all of this though, I’m hardly an expert on UZR
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 8:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Original article on UZR
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/primate_studies/discussion/lichtman_2003-03-14_0/
knock yrself out
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 8:48 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't have a problem with his salary
8 million is about what he’d get on the FA market, and we shouldn’t have ANY problem taking it on.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/2010-mlb-free-a.html
and next years FA market for 2B is pretty bleak
As far as the Rockies and Twins being hot for him…I’ll believe it when I see it. 8M is a lot of salary for teams like the Rockies and Twins to take on.
by superk1ng on Jul 9, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
THis
Judgment Day is coming
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by Natto on Jul 9, 2009 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
The comp is severely strained, and the needs driving the trades are totally different.
Hillenbrand was acquired to be something he was not. Fact is, our 2B scene is SOOOOO bad that there’s no doubt that Sanchez would be a MAJOR improvement.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Jul 9, 2009 3:24 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that same thing can be said for Adam Kennedy, Julio Lugo, Felipe Lopez, Kaz Matsui, etc.
The question is who will help the most and to what cost.
Our 2B situation has been so terrible there are a ton of players that would be upgrades, however, that doesn’t mean they are all great fits
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn’t mind having Adam Kennedy.
Judgment Day is coming
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by Natto on Jul 9, 2009 3:29 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adam Kennedy would be fine. The others are not anywhere near as good as Sanchez.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
NeifiChicken grasps at straws
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Jul 9, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
no, they are not,
but they also would come at the fraction of the price.
It’s merely cost/benefit. I’m not disputing Sanchez current level of production, the only way it’s relevant to me is how it can be used to predict his future performance with us. To me, I see a guy who has had a very nice 1st half due to a BABIP that is much higher than his career norms, is equipped with an offensive skillset that is derived SOLELY from an ability to hit for avg, and is only 300 PA’s removed from a year in which he was god awful offensively.
He does provide an above average glove, yes, but as always, I implore you to not use UZR to the exact measurements of run productio nthat it defines itself as. Useful, absolutely, but the levels of accuracy in terms of run production aren’t nearly as accurate as offensive measurements. Thus citing his worth based on values primarily derived from his UZR is not the best way to find out his exact value
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s 25 points higher than his career BABIP, that’s not a huge, obvious fluke variation.
And Sanchez is consistently called a good defender at 2B by most defensive systems.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes, did I say he was not above average?
I’m merely saying using Fangraphs $ values can be a flawed way of evaluating a player given that
a) they use UZR to exact run values, just as they do offense. With offense, the run values for isolated events are more or less proven. For UZR, it’s a lot more gray. UZR is good for seeing how good players are relative to each other (hence why it can show Sanchez is a good defensive 2B) but it’s a stretch to be taken literally that Freddy Sanchez’s glove was worth exactly 9.2 runs in 2007. It might be close
b) the BABIP isn’t really that big a concern to me, it’s simply his skillset and age. Perhaps you can give me some player comps that would put my mind at ease on the offensive production of Freddy Sanchez going forward
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
he HAS been so much better. The real questions are
a) what do we expect Sanchez do here on out, which is all that matters.
b) is that worth his remaining salary (plus Sanchez/Frandsen package)
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
a) Hillenbrand’s dropoff was beyond what would be expected, and frankly, Sanchez’s slightly higher ability to hit for average and on-base may make all the difference in the world.
b) YES.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Jul 9, 2009 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
the on base is pretty much just explained by the avg. Their walk rates are more or less, if anything, I’d venture Hillenbrand’s power suggests he would have aged better (although he clearly didn’t)
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW Sanchez also doesn’t seem to be a whiney brat like Hillenbrand.
Thing A
by sam23 on Jul 9, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A Sanchez-Frandsen package really isn’t a very big price to pay.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 3:28 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
And Sanchez has been worth, since 2005:
$10.9 mil
17.7 mil
15.6 mil
1.8 mil
11.0 mil (ONLY SO FAR)
I think the chances are good he’ll be worth 8 million.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I'd be STOKED if that would git r dun
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Jul 9, 2009 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
so perhaps it’s more then. All the more reason I like him less and less.
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 3:33 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Or maybe it won’t be more, since the Pirates are apparently desperate to trade him now that his option for next year is likely to kick in.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 3:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I belong in this line
Sanchez isn’t the big bat that this team needs, but the value that he could add to the lineup (over the garbage production the Giants have gotten out of second base) is equivalent to replacing Ishi with a legitimate middle of the order guy.
Adopted brother of Jason Jarvis.
by j14 on Jul 9, 2009 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that is assuming he keeps performing at his current levels of production, which is quite unlikely.
Almost anything above replacement is a massive upgrade over what we’ve gotten out of 2B, why break the bank on a guy like Sanchez?
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 5:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Freddy Sanchez plays 2B. He is a clear upgrade over our current 2B.
Shea Hillenbrand played 1B. At the time, he was not a clear upgrade over our current 1B.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 3:27 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
missed the point
my point with these two was clearly about the declining offensive nature of player’s like Sanchez
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that's not analysis
it’s an ancedote. And not a particularly apt one.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
by zenbitz on Jul 9, 2009 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
An anecdote that might be particularly relevant to modern Giants fans given that Hillenbrand is a player we all can relate to since we saw his demise before our own eyes.
I wanted to try and look at some positive comps like Placido Polanco, but his BB/K rates blew Sanchez out of the water. Edgardo Alfonzo had too much power and walking ability to really be a comp.
I could’ve gone with some of my better options (like Tierney) but no one here would really care about that I imagine. I could’ve just gone with the basic argument against BA dependent offensive players with no other redeeming skill, but I thought bringing it Shea Hillenbrand could bring it home a bit better
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 4:46 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
it’s not exactly like I’m onto some huge discovery either about the offensive sustainability of players like Freddy Sanchez. I don’t think there’s much debate about the inherent risk of a player like him to keep producing offensively.
It’s much easier to try and make my point to Giants fans with a comp everyone can relate to. It was between Shea and the final years of Edgardo Alfonzo, but Edgardo was a more complete offensive player
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 4:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good thing I picked player 1
Get Sanchez before the Rockies do
Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)
by CB30 on Jul 9, 2009 3:37 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I really do like how he doesn’t mention the position difference. Sanchez’s numbers are great for a second baseman. Hillenbrand’s, not so much for a 1B/DH.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe I did mention it later on. My point was more the the degree of looking at where Shea Hillenbrand (and other players of skillsets similar to Sanchez) careers go after 30. There seems to be some cause for serious risk there, and if Sanchez were to go in the direction of Hillenbrand, others (or Sanchez’s 08 season) he would not be adequate for 2B
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, but you wanted to have a GOTCHA moment when everyone chose Player B over Player A… except that as is obvious, a good defensive 2B putting up Player A’s numbers >>>>>> a 1B/DH putting up Player B’s numbers.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are correct about one point
Freddie Sanchez is somewhat overpaid. But 2006 dollars don’t equal 2009 dollars either, and as everone else pointed out, 2B != 1B.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
by zenbitz on Jul 9, 2009 3:42 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I have to admit that Sanchez makes me nervous.
Randy Winn is in time out until his OBP gets back over .330.
by oldjacket on Jul 9, 2009 3:51 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Health wise or player abilities moving forward? His back concerns me a little.
by xanthan on Jul 9, 2009 5:31 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Xanthan,
from a performance perspectice/skillset perspective I’m interested in your thoughts on Sanchez offensive abilities (let’s leave out the defense for now). Where do you see him going?
My whole argument in this entire thread has been about not liking players whose sole offensive value is derived from Batting Average. Especially a player like Sanchez who cannot even manage respectable BB/K numbers (as opposed to a guy like say, Polanco or Tony Gwynn).
I think he’s a ticking time bomb offensively, and he’s probably going to be closer to the player he was in ’08 going forward, rather than the player he was for April and May this year
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 5:37 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He doesn’t look like a player that’s about to crash, but that’s just my first reaction. I haven’t really looked at his numbers. Second basemen tend to decline early, but he’ll be 32-years-old next season, that doesn’t seem terribly old to me.
I’ll think about it some and get back to you.
by xanthan on Jul 9, 2009 5:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
AVG driven players in their early thirties scare me. The health problems scare me. He seems like the kind of guy who could lose all of his tools due to a single injury.
That said, of all the rental players mentioned, he’d be the one most likely to actually help us win some games in the second half. (Get out of here, Jermaine Dye lovers).
Randy Winn is in time out until his OBP gets back over .330.
by oldjacket on Jul 10, 2009 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can we start using the "Dye is the answer crowd" for skeet shooting just like the peasants in History of the World Part I ?
Yes, This is still a 79 win squad.
Fuggen Rox! You might want to try beating The Bums more than once in 10 games. Try it. You might find you like it.
by daveinexile on Jul 10, 2009 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
sure there's a risk
but I would happily let him implode in 2010 if he helps us now (as long as we don’t give up much…. one of our B- corner OFs ideally)
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
by zenbitz on Jul 10, 2009 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What the comparison shows, first, is the injustice of the sneering and wailing about the Giants’ acquisition of Hillebrand, and Sabean’s stupidity. Hillebrand made perfect sense at the time; he underperformed reasonable expectations for us and then for another few teams that had the same sort of hopes for him that we, reasonably, had. Whether this one example shows anything whatsoever about Sanchez, I very much doubt. But I also suspect that Sanchez is in decline, as does BP, and I would prefer a different option, if a different option is to be had. I would prefer, for example, a shortstop, and switching Renteria to second base, a move that he himself offered to make, as I recall, if it would help the team for him to do so.
by campanari on Jul 9, 2009 3:53 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I wasn’t really knocking the Hillenbrand move. I think it made sense at the time, I’m merely trying to point out the offensive risk with batters of that skillset, like Freddy Sanchez
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you think it made sense at the time
Then you just harpooned your entire argument.
"The BB's are out. The BB's are being arseholes to me." - Brian Wilson.
by hairball on Jul 9, 2009 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
or just admitting I was less intelligent at the time
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Again, Hillenbrand was not that much better than what the Giants were throwing out there at 1B at the time. He was not much better than Mark Sweeney, who had hit about .264/.333/.448 to that point in the season.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hillebrand made perfect sense at the time
No. No he did not.
Hillenbrand was acquired during a time when the Giants should have realized that they were not going to even make the playoffs, much less go far in them. That team should have been selling, not buying. Particularly, they should not have been buying a fringy hitting first baseman like Hillenbrand. The fact that he didn’t hit as well as expected does not change the fact that it was a bad move at the wrong time.
And to give up somebody like Accardo (who, regardless of the fact that he has since disappeared, was a good bullpen prospect), made it even worse.
"Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense."
Only [hella] games left until the end of Zito's [no, make that Rowand's] contract.
Adoptive father of "Poncho" Villalona: This Angel don't fly. Nothing about him is light.
by thehavenot on Jul 9, 2009 6:40 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Your post completely shocked me!
I had no idea Hillenbrand was still playing in the pros!
Then I saw his last ML stats came back in 2007 and I was no longer shocked. Just curious how he’s due 5mil this year. Also found out he’s 34 now, so I’m thoroughly confused.
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
by JRPhillips on Jul 9, 2009 4:13 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I didn’t want to say 06 and spoil the surprise
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You sneaky bastard!
I'm thinking but nothing's happening.
by JRPhillips on Jul 9, 2009 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another big point
BB/K ratio
To me, this is pretty important, especially for a guy as BA dependent as Sanchez. His BB/rates have fallen off tremendously the past 3 years, sitting at around 0.35 (although he’s at 0.40 this year). Those rates are really quite poor for someone who lacks sufficient power to back them up.
In the past players who generally derive their value from BA (Gwynn and co.) usually are able to maintain very good BB/K rates, even if they weren’t walking very much
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 4:18 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
He’s managed to put up good overall lines with BB/K of .40 and .42 in 07 and now 09. His K-rate is up this season, but his BB-rate is in line with his better years.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 4:22 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
that’s like saying Kirk Rueter was able to put up good ERA’s despite his terrible K/BB rates towards the end. Just because it can happen once or twice, doesn’t mean it’s something you should bet on lasting and with 12 million due over the next 18 months that is exactly what we’d be doing.
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 4:26 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Look, I’m not disagreeing that Sanchez’s offensive game is a bit tenuous. I just think it’s a risk worth taking. I’m not particularly concerned about adding $8 million to next year’s payroll – especially when there aren’t any second base options for next year that appear to much better.
I am well aware that many second basemen hit a wall in their early 30s and decline very quickly – Alomar, Baerga, etc etc.
I think, however, that the convergence of things in THIS specific instance – the upgrade he would represent over what we have right now, the chance the Giants have to make the playoffs THIS season, the Pirates’ desire to dump him for salary related reasons, the future prospects for 2B on the Giants – make it a risk worth taking.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 9, 2009 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
fair enough, my main issue is the 8 million next year, which I do consider a big deal, but I at least understand your logic.
I do think there are some attractive 2B FA options next year (Kennedy, Hudson, DeRosa, Iwamura, Lopez, etc.) most of which could come much cheaper than 8 million
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 4:34 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
O-Dog?
I’m much more down with that, honestly.
Although I don’t know how he’ll wash off all that blue.
by AmorVincitOmnia on Jul 9, 2009 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Should also be noted
Sanchez 09 splits
April: .337/.374/.570
May: .330/.373/.459
June: .282/.321/.427
Truthfully, I’m more of a believer that monthly splits are more random than anything, but it could also be gleamed from this that he’s probably already had his “hot” months of 09, which inflate his current numbers
Also dealing a back injury that has forced him to miss the past 5 games, not a good
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 5:15 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
You’re saying Freddy Sanchez is overpaid yet you pushed for Julio Lugo a few days ago?
by SeeingStars on Jul 9, 2009 5:38 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
a) Pushing is an exaggeration. I hardly love the guy, but he is an upgrade that could come very cheap and has had some decent years in his past
b) Unlike Sanchez, the Sox would GLADLY pay for 80% of Lugo’s remaining salary just to unload him. With Freddy Sanchez, PIT won’t have to.
Lugo is not a better player than Sanchez, but if you ask me would I rather have Lugo for 1.5 million per year and no prospects vs Sanchez at 8 million per year and losing prospects, I’d take the former option. Sanchez is obviously the better player, but that comes with a cost, a cost that IMO isn’t worth it
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 5:50 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would rather have Sanchez than Lugo
Even if Lugo comes cheap
Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)
by CB30 on Jul 9, 2009 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If the Red Sox were going to eat 8 million of Lugo’s salary then they would have cut him by now. Furthermore I’m almost positive Lugo isn’t as expendable this year as opposed to last because the player they hoped to take over, Lowrie, has missed basically all of this season. No doubt they’ll still try to unload him but unless you have a current source that says they’ll eat 80% of his contract then I don’t buy your argument.
If your case is for 2010 and beyond then I agree with you, Sanchez won’t be cheap. He’s not my first choice to begin with, Iwamura is. Now Aki is a risk coming from the torn ACL but Lugo’s been dealing with bad knees all season too. Not to mention he’s better/younger/cheaper.
by SeeingStars on Jul 9, 2009 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lowrie will be back with the team on the 18th. Green has provided superior defense as a backup SS.
They would absolutely eat almost all of his entire contract to move him, so if the Giants were even to offer to pay 1 million and 1.5 next year, the Sox would probably see that as cutting their losses.
Truthfully, if we’re patient and think he’d want to come here on his free will, I truthfully think there is a decent chance he’d be cut, but his offense has been decent enoguh the past two years to likely warrant some interest from teams if the Sox pay 75% or more of his remaining money
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 6:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you polled McC, I don’t think too many people will agree with you on his bat being decent. He’s been below average since 07’s whopping -22.8 runs below average. Yea his 09 is slightly better than anyone we have now, but a UZR of -6.8 in 243 innings is ridiculously bad.
by SeeingStars on Jul 9, 2009 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Freddy is a paper tiger. Where’s Uggla?
by cybermaldonado on Jul 9, 2009 6:06 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Like a Tiger with a paper route?
Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)
by CB30 on Jul 9, 2009 6:07 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
A tiger you wipe your ass with
by Lars The Wanderer on Jul 9, 2009 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uggla
I could get on board with.
a) 2.5 years til free agency.
b) cut his K rate from last year drastically
c) continues to raise his walk rate
d) very, very unlucky with his BABIP
e) a below average glove, but offensively he probably is the best 2B in the NL not named Chase Utley
f) unlike Freddy, we’d be buying Uggla at an all time low. If we could get Uggla without giving up one of our top 4 prospects I’d be all over it (Sanchez/Barnes/Frandsen?)
by NeifiChicken on Jul 9, 2009 6:21 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would much rather pay more and get Uggla
The San Francisco Giants: Where old men go to die.
by GrahamCrakalaka on Jul 9, 2009 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I once had a Mike Aldrete bat. Not sure what became of it. I wouldn’t mind acquiring a Travis Ishikawa bat.
by khenderson on Jul 9, 2009 10:02 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I have a neifi perez bat!
game used! Like, it’s broken and everything. So he must have at least fouled one off with it.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
by zenbitz on Jul 10, 2009 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It must not have been legit. Neifi Perez never made contact with a bat.
by SFGuy on Jul 10, 2009 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would call bs
but having a COUNTERFEIT Neifi Perez “used” game bat (cracked) is even cooler.
FIRE BRIAN SABEAN... UNLESS HE KEEPS DRAFTING WELL. .. AND SIGNS UNDERRATED PLAYERS LIKE AFFELDT OR PHELPS. .. OR ALRIGHT WHO'S PLAYING WITH THE ALIEN MIND-SWITCHING RAY?
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PARPG- Indy post-apocalyptic roleplaying game currently in early planning stages.
by zenbitz on Jul 11, 2009 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don’t think the question is so much, “How valuable is Freddy Sanchez’s bat?” as it is " How much will it cost?"
"Don't trust anyone under the age of 30" - Brian Sabean
by Smotheredinhugs on Jul 10, 2009 6:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
Yes, This is still a 79 win squad.
Fuggen Rox! You might want to try beating The Bums more than once in 10 games. Try it. You might find you like it.
by daveinexile on Jul 10, 2009 6:47 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
In other rosterbation news
It looks like Nelson Cruz might be available since the Rangers have a logjam in the outfield.
I’m not really advocating anything here, although I’d rather have him than Dye. The middle infield is a much higher priority than another right fielder, however.
by Duelling Brandos on Jul 10, 2009 8:51 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
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