Scott Ostler's Story Shows How Little He Knows (Regarding Sample Size)

He makes Jenkins look like a genius with this piece.

over 2 years ago baetown415 22 comments 0 recs |

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~~Sadowski’s~~ Ostler’s story shows how little experts know

Saving countless runs with my Brian Horwitz

by lyricalkiller on Jul 7, 2009 7:35 AM PDT reply actions

(as I see that I made the exact same joke you made in your fanshot headline)

Saving countless runs with my Brian Horwitz

by lyricalkiller on Jul 7, 2009 7:36 AM PDT up reply actions

I don’t think this was really an article. I don’t know what you’d call it, but it wasn’t an article

by Mrbasepaul on Jul 7, 2009 7:54 AM PDT reply actions

yeah, stats can be deceiving, but so can your lying eyes.

Bonds stands alone.

Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants

by nostocksjustbonds on Jul 7, 2009 7:57 AM PDT reply actions

But you can’t hide them.

Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!

by Lyle on Jul 7, 2009 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions

Not to pick on you in particular baetown, but it sometimes seems like there’s this obsession with some around here to slam sportswriters/comlunists. The " __________ is in an idiot." rants serve a purpose that’s beyond me.

If everything that comes out of a columnist’s typewriter is pure garbage, why would one continue to read it? Just to look for fodder to post on the internet and crticize?

Personally, I thought the point of Oslter’s column was not to slam statheads, but more of a human interest story about a guy who flew under the radar because he wasn’t a sexy high pick with gaudy stats, yet has had remarkable success in two starts on the big stage. Sort of a “Rocky” story.

My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman

by Goofus on Jul 7, 2009 8:35 AM PDT reply actions

I agree mostly, except for Tim Kawakami. That guy is a pile and will write anything to get attention. It’s not about the story, it’s about him. Skip Bayless 2.0

by jctGamer on Jul 7, 2009 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions

Kawakami is a tool.

Prospective parent of new pick, Zack Wheeler. Projectable Righty stolen from the braves. Of course, I stalk my son's myspace: http://www.myspace.com/zackwheelerbaseball

"Obviously I’m not doing things like going toe-to-toe with a ninja. Find me a ninja, for one."--Brian Wilson

by haverecords on Jul 7, 2009 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions

He wanted to do the Rios trade

Unforgiveable

Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)

by CB30 on Jul 7, 2009 10:46 PM PDT up reply actions

I think the ‘The stats can lie’ line pretty much guaranteed this reaction…
At the same time I agree that this is a human interest story and not a knock on statistical analysis.

Duane Kuiper: Hall Of Fame broadcaster.

by Johnny Disaster on Jul 7, 2009 8:55 AM PDT up reply actions

How long til a McCovenite snags “”http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/07/06/SP2N18J0RP.DTL" >Elaine Sadowski" as a screen name? She needs to be on here now that Jack Taschner’s mom has stopped lurking.

Disfrute Los Gigantes every day at www.leftymalo.com

by leftymalo on Jul 7, 2009 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions

oops. link fail. here you go.

Disfrute Los Gigantes every day at www.leftymalo.com

by leftymalo on Jul 7, 2009 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions

Especially when his example of how “the stats can lie” is how they’re affected by park factors, for which…there are stats.

Meet my new son: Sundrendy Windster, coming soon to a minor league near you.

by EliminateMe on Jul 7, 2009 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions

Another way we err: We rely on stats. Lefty Freem is 6-0 at Hagerstown! Bring him up!

a lot of fans react this way and maybe Ostler is one of them. Of course, relying on WINS as a stat is to err.

Bonds stands alone.

Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants

by nostocksjustbonds on Jul 7, 2009 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions

anyway, do you think that Ostler believes that Hagerstown is still an affiliate? It’s in the realm of possibility.

Bonds stands alone.

Neal before Zod!
Official Sponsor of the 1997 San Francisco Giants

by nostocksjustbonds on Jul 7, 2009 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions

I actually like Ostler in general but what spiffed me here is:

1. Sample size issue, but only because of:

2. The ending of his piece, where Ostler says this:

Maybe we all should take back some of the nasty things we’ve said about the Giants’ judgment.

Right after the Giants explain why Sadowski wasn’t invited to spring training.

As if it was a total management failure to not have this guy possibly ready at the beginning of the season (if that makes sense, sorry I just woke up), and really just basing it off of the past 2 starts.

3. No where in the piece does he mention anything worthy from scouts, from whom I think a smarter opinion might come (because of the lower reliability of stats in the minors).

4. His headline, but that wasn’t really him.

In Ostler’s defense, it seems like part of the column got cut too.

Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all

If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.

GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!

by baetown415 on Jul 7, 2009 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions

Those lines, to me, are part of Ostler’s style of deliberate absurdism. That’s how I read the article.

by shanghaijim on Jul 7, 2009 11:36 AM PDT up reply actions

Ostler is never sincere, though. There’s no point in taking his word at face value. He couches his opinions in quips, bon mot, and often outright nonsense. Jenkins is always sincere, which is why he’s scary.

by shanghaijim on Jul 7, 2009 11:35 AM PDT reply actions