With These Two Trade Deadline Deals, How Much Better Are We Now?
by giantsrainman on Jul 31, 2009 2:55 PM PDT
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For the purposes of this analysis I am going to assume that Garko and Sanchez are just break even when they take PAs away from Ishikawa and Uribe even thow I think (and in Sanchez's case know) that the new guys are better. What I want to look at is how much the Giants have gained by replacing the 130 PAs in the first 102 games Aurilia and Guzman got with Garko and the 322 PAs in the first 102 games Burriss, Downs, and Frandsen got with Sanchez.
In these 130 PAs Aurila and Guzman combined to produce a WAR of -0.7 while Garko produced a WAR of 1.2 in 285 PAs. Garko therefore would have produced a WAR of about +0.5 or 1.2 more the Aurilia and Guzman in these same 130 PAs. However, while 102 games have been played todate only 60 remain which means we should expect a net gain of about 0.7 Wins from this upgrade for the rest of the season.
in these 322 PAs Burriss, Downs, and Frandsen combined to produce a WAR of -1.3 while Sanchez produced a WAR of 2.2 in 382 PAs. Sanchez therefore would have produced a WAR of about 1.9 or 3.2 more the Burriss, Downs, and Frandsen in these same 322 PAs. However, again while 102 games have been played todate only 60 remain which means we should expect a net gain of about 1.8 Wins from this upgrade for the rest of the season.
Bottom line these upgrades should be worth about 2.5 Wins to the Giants for the remainder of the season. I do not like the price Brian paid for these upgrades but these 2.5 Wins should indeed significantly improve our playoff chances.
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I agree
we overpaid IMO, but the Giants are quite a bit better than they were a week ago and that’s a good thing. Not to mention that a full season of Sanchez/Garko next year provides significant security at two positions that were still pretty big question marks.
Adopted brother of Jason Jarvis.
If by “pretty big question marks”, you mean “perenial black holes”, then I’d agree.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
Don't know if we overpaid
I don’t mind the price paid because pitching prospects are acquired fairly easily. At least in our organization. I much prefered trading Barnes/Alderson and hanging onto Neal/Bond/Kieschnick/Crawford because our farm system has lacked hitters as we all know.
no reason
to suspect that it was an either or scenario. We definitely overpaid, but it is what it is. lets move on.
Cain is Able ...
In additoon
What I don’t think this considers is that Sanchez will be providing his offensive production from the 2-hole, where the team is better able to take advantage of him being on base. The “production” from the other 2nd basemen was largely done in the 8-hole, where runs are less likely to be scored.
And there’s the added benefit of stengthening the bench by moving Uribe there (or to shortstop) .
I’d guess those tow things combined would add something to Sanchez value.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
I like your additoon.
Forsan et haec olim meminisse iuvabit... Maybe.
by Mayor of 311 on Jul 31, 2009 4:01 PM PDT up reply actions
The Red Sox got V-Mart for a Major League pitcher and 2 Minor League pitching prospects. We couldn’t have packaged Barnes and Alderson with, say Merkin for him?
When you look at that trade, I think Sabean could have done better.
Perhaps
But do you really think the Giants would sit Molina for Martinez? Vmart’s a somewhat better 1B than Garko, but not enough to make up for losing Sanchez.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
He could play C when its Molina’s day off, and 1st the rest of the time. Garko and Sanchez are slight improvements, Martinez would have been a BIG improvement.
Giants 2B was the least productive position in the majors this year, I believe, as discussed considerably. Sanchez is a huge improvement. Martinez would be a huge improvement over Bengie at C, but a) that’ll never happen, and b) his catching days are apparently pretty close to over.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
You need to re-examine Martinez
He hasn’t hit that much better than Garko this season, and 2008 was a disaster. He’s not the player he was three seasons ago.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
his difference over Bengie would be great than Garko vs Ishi
although it’s not like he’d be playing over Bengie anyway
by NeifiChicken on Jul 31, 2009 8:08 PM PDT up reply actions
lolwut
Masterson >>>>>>>>>>>>> Merkin.
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You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
maybe
Sanchez Alderson Barnes
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
And Alderson and Barnes were rated higher than Hagadone and Price. It’s a comparison of the total package not point for point.
maybe a little
but the difference between Merkin and Masterson is WAY bigger than the difference between Hagadone/Price and Alderson/Barnes.
It would have taken AT LEAST J.Sanchez, Alderson and Barnes.
Sharlon Schoop - de favoriete Nederlandse honkbalspeler van McCovey Chronicles.
You always have to be one step ahead of your drunk friends
--Daisy Owl
And as shaky as our SP depth is right now, I just don’t see how we could move Sanchez. That’s essentially a two man rotation with several automatic losses and bullpen killers tossed in.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Masterson is better than anyone the Giants could have offered. Hagadone is a lot better than Scott Barnes or Tim Alderson. And Pryce is pretty good too.
Giants could not have offered better. To suggest as such means you overvalue Giants prospects and probably don’t know much about prospects to begin with.
I had heard Hagadone is 10 starts back from Tommy John Surgery. And the Red Sox are notorious for over-valuing their prospects…
But now I have a sig…
you overvalue Giants prospects and probably don’t know much about prospects to begin with.
"...you overvalue Giants prospects and probably don’t know much about prospects to begin with."
Hagadone is a lot better than Scott Barnes or Tim Alderson.
Not really. At all. Would you really take a 23 year old fresh off TJ surgery in A ball with about 60 pro innings spread out over 3 years over Scott Barnes or Tim Alderson, both of whom have had long term success in more than one level? I think you’re the one overvaluing prospects. Hagadone could be a real sleeper, but right now he hasn’t really done anything as a pro.
The very bad man traded my son...So now I'd like you all to meet my new son, Ryan "Aaron" Garko...Dammit it's just not the same!
Hagadone is certainly a much better prospect than Barnes. Whether or not he is better than Alderson could be debated. Keith Law, for one, thinks he’s considerably better.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Aug 2, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Adding Sanchez & Garko is a bigger improvement to the team than just adding Martinez would have been. And we’d have had to include Sanchez along with Alderson & Barnes to get him. So the moves we’ve made are a bigger improvement at a lower cost so in that sense we’ve done much better business it just doesn’t have the PR value.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
With these two trades
I think the Giants control their own destiny to the Wild Card. Assuming the pitching continues its run of excellence, the offense should have enough “punch” now to end up on the right side of a few more 1-0 and 2-1 games than before
That’s a big assumption heading into the dog days, where dead arms start to pop up. At some point you have to figure the bullpen’s going to go through a stretch where it’s not this fantastic nearly all the time.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Before these trades I thought that both the Braves and Cubs (or Cards) were better than us for the wild card, and now it’s pretty close, but I still think they’re slightly better. At least we closed the gap. I’ve seen a million times on this board that we shouldn’t acquire " Superstar Player A" because this offense is so pathetic that one big bat won’t change things, but with these deals we’re approaching the territory where one superstar bat can put us over the top.
Proud new dad of Edgardo errr Edgar Renteria!!!
The Rockies are actually the overwhelming favorite to win the wild card, according to the BP postseason odds. The good news is the Giants have plenty of games left with them, so it will be decided on the field.
that’s a relief. I was starting to think it would be decided by Baseball Prospectus computers.
by FluLikeSymptoms on Aug 2, 2009 5:06 PM PDT up reply actions
If Indians Would Have Taken A Package For VMart Centered Around Alderson And Barnes I Am Sure We Would Have VMart
Per Henry Schulman it would have taken a package centered around Cain or Bumgarner.
As for Adam Dunn, his defense is so bad that he has been worth just 0.2 Wins more then what we have gotten out of Lewis and Schierholtz to date. Josh Willingham is the outfielder that could have been a major upgrade as he has been worth 1.3 more wins then Dunn but Washington seems to have asked for too much and thus Sabean passed.
by giantsrainman on Jul 31, 2009 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions
Martinez
Is Batting .175 with 1 homerun and 10 RBI over the past month. That’s not much better than Richie.
Proud father of Dallas Mcpherson. If you have any information leading to the arrest of the person responsible for the kidnapping of my son please contact me immediately. Reward if found!
The Giants need another SP. That hasn’t been addressed yet.
by Lars The Wanderer on Jul 31, 2009 3:28 PM PDT reply actions
I Am Expecting A Waiver Salary Dump Deal At A Very Affordable Prospect Cost For This Need.
by giantsrainman on Jul 31, 2009 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions
I can see Toronto throwing Alex Rios out there on waivers and telling the team that picks him “he’s all yours.” Bluffing period is over now. Teams that thought they could both dump a big contract and get a sizable return now know all they can hope for is to get rid of a contract.
Proud new dad of Edgardo errr Edgar Renteria!!!
/was secretly hoping for Aaron Harang for Brett Pill
by Grant Brisbee on Jul 31, 2009 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions
Careful
You’re going to alienate your Brett Pill readers. Wait, there’s only one? Nevermind.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
Harang for Barnes
would have been exciting to me, seems like the Reds are going for it though
by NeifiChicken on Jul 31, 2009 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Joseph Martinez would like a word with you
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
Generally, tossing a true rookie into the pressure of a pennant race isn’t a recipe for either short term or long term success for said pitcher, but we may not have much choice. Hopefully the ghost of Solomon Torres isn’t awoken.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
I don’t see why it would be a problem. If the concern is innings, his injury took care of potentially overworking his arm.
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at a position to be determined.
@#$% Juan Uribe. Dios es grande.
It's not like the team would be leaning on him in the top of the rotation.
I see absolutely no added benefit from veteran savvy in a 5th starters.
The only way this becomes an issue is if he somehow manages to pitch well enough to crack the postseason rotation. But in that case, pitching well down the stretch would overrule any such concerns.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
But in September in a pennant race there is no leaning on the top of the rotation. Every game becomes a white knuckler. It wasn’t just that final game in LA that sent his career to the psycho ward — he was the starting and losing pitcher for the final 4 losses of the season (the only losses in an 18 game stretch). Any one of those games would have made the difference. You gotta figure the Wild Card’s not going to be won by more than a game or two, so there’s really no top of the rotation down the stretch.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Oops, accidentally edited out a line somewhere. Obviously the 3rd and 4th sentence are referring to Torres in ’93.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Lets look closer at that series, shall we?
News flash, the Giants starters layed and egg in three out of the four games in that series. 28 year old John Burkett allowed 4 runs in 5 IP, third year vet Bryan Hickerson only lasted 2 innings the day before Solomon, and guess who gave up most of the runs in Torres’s fateful final effort with the Giants: veterans Dave Burba and Dave Raghetti.
Solomon choked, sure, but it was a team effort. One headed as much by seasoned vets as the green starter who shouldered all the blame.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
lies!
You just don’t understand veteran moxy
signed,
World Series MVP Livan Hernandez vs Rookie John Lackey
by NeifiChicken on Jul 31, 2009 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Ironically
Livan Hernandez, himself, first made his impression by winning both NLCS and World Series MVP as a young player.
"Catcher are base running. Hitters are offense."
Only [hella] games left until the end of Zito's [no, make that Rowand's] contract.
Adoptive father of "Poncho" Villalona: This Angel don't fly. Nothing about him is light.
All true, but only Torres was crushed by the experience (crying, wanting to retire, etc). Also, note I wasn’t talking about the Dodger series, but the entire last three weeks of the season. Look, this isn’t about grittertude or savvy or moxie — it’s just about, as Bill Walsh used to say, putting your young players in a position where they’re likely to succeed.
It helps to have experienced the physical sensation of great stress and know how the body — which is after all the instrument of their performance — reacts. I direct you to re-read our star pitchers comments the day after the All Star game. He was surprised that his physical reaction was as strong as it was. What his body did, took him by surprise, and he wasn’t sure how to accommodate it or get it back to normal. Next year when he goes back, I’ll hope he isn’t surprised by the sensation and understands how to respond to it.
Another example close at hand? John Bowker spent three months reaping the rewards of applied patience. But coming to SF he proceeded to swing and miss at something like the first 11 pitches? Why would he do that when he knew that patience was the secret to his success? It’s reasonable to assume that nerves and overanxiousness got the best of him. He couldnt’ control himself. Hopefully next time he’ll understand it better and respond better (though lord knows Linden never did).
Pitchers who’ve never faced major league hitters before are going to fail some; they’re going to get lit up some and learn some lessons. You’re not doing them any favors by forcing them to go through those failures under circumstances where their importance is magnified many times. Not to say it’s impossible for them to handle it. Cal Eldred ripped off 11 or 12 consecutive wins in a pennant race to start his career — Brewers fans ended up thinking if he’d been promoted a month earlier they would have taken the title that year. But it is putting them in a situation where they’re more likely set up for failure than success, and that’s bad management to me.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
That was very well written and thoughtfully argued. Really, it’s the first time I’ve seen someone cogently argue for veteran moxie. I’ve been on the Paul Byrd or Other Fungible, Veteran Fifth-Starter Bandwagon all season long. I’m also on the Joe Martinez Bandwagon. I live a conflicted existence. I’d be perfectly fine with acquiring some low-cost veteran (not Ramon Ortiz!) to make a few starts. If he fails, you’ve still got Joey and Kevin in AAA.
Joe Martinez: My fingers are crossed and my palms are together for you.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
My problem with that scenario
is that the Giants might stick with the failing veteran him anyway. If Martinez fails, the Giants will cut their losses after three or four starts and move on, as they (hopefully) will do with Sadowski. If Paul Byrd throws up a ERA around 6 in August, I’m not sure the Giants won’t continue starting him through September.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
I agree
This is the issue. Unfortunately, there just isn’t a good answer at this point.
Joe Martinez: My fingers are crossed and my palms are together for you.
When it's all said and done, America will be remembered for three things: The Bill of Rights, jazz, and baseball.
A well thought out post, however
Another example close at hand? John Bowker spent three months reaping the rewards of applied patience. But coming to SF he proceeded to swing and miss at something like the first 11 pitches? Why would he do that when he knew that patience was the secret to his success? It’s reasonable to assume that nerves and overanxiousness got the best of him. He couldnt’ control himself. Hopefully next time he’ll understand it better and respond better (though lord knows Linden never did).
If the prospective starter pulls a Bowker, it will be obvious quickly and he can be removed before he does much real damage.
Pitchers who’ve never faced major league hitters before are going to fail some; they’re going to get lit up some and learn some lessons. You’re not doing them any favors by forcing them to go through those failures under circumstances where their importance is magnified many times.
Waiver wire veterans are going to fail as well. Perhaps they won’t wilt under pressure (though who can really say, veterans are hardly immune to chokitis, and some of those, like, say, Freddy Sanchez, have no experience in these kind of pressure situations to draw upon). For every Torres story of rookie collapse we can come up with a K-Rod or a Lackey, or an Ellsbury, or a 2003 Giants apocalyptic veteran collapse; we can throw out anecdotes all day without really proving anything.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Waiver wire veterans are going to fail as well.
I agree. This is why I was hoping the Giants were going to pick up something other than waiver wire trash for a SP. They don’t need a 5th starter. The Giants have those in abundance. They need a 3.
The sole reason Johnson was a good signing in the offseason was that he pushed Zito to 4 and Sanchez to 5. When he went down, it should have been a priority to replace that.
Of course, I didn’t count on Ricciardi being such an ass about Halladay. Taking Rios’ contract should have mitigated the prospect cost but it doesn’t sound like JP agreed.
Overall, I was hoping the Giants would stand pat during the trademania over the last couple of weeks. I don’t think they are a playoff team. However, if you are going to try to make the playoffs this season, then don’t half-ass it. Which is what I think they did.
I can see the other half of the argument though. The idea that these moves were made with more than this season in mind doesn’t escape me. However, this really only applies to Sanchez. He is going to be an acceptable 2010 player. Garko on the other hand is not going to be the bat we are looking for this or next season.
by Lars The Wanderer on Aug 1, 2009 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions
How do Johnson’s stats stack up against other 3rd starters? My impression is that he was good, not great and didn’t go deep in very many games, but I am too lazy to be definitive…
Duane Kuiper: Hall Of Fame broadcaster.
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 1, 2009 2:38 PM PDT up reply actions
If the prospective starter pulls a Bowker, it will be obvious quickly and he can be removed before he does much real damage.
I think this might be a recipe for bullpen failure down the stretch… in 2003 the bullpen (and especially Robb Nen) were ragged. It’s why having an innings eater, even if somewhat less effective, is a valued commodity.
Duane Kuiper: Hall Of Fame broadcaster.
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 1, 2009 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions
That's a non-issue.
The Giants starters are averaging over 6 IP per start, third in the NL, along with the third fewest innings from the bullpen. They have no reliever in the top 25 in appearance, and their highest ranked in IP is Miller at #19. We already have two innings eaters at the front of the rotation, and one of the best-rested bullpens in the majors.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Partly we’re looking at two different ends of the pipe here, though, Bhaakon. Of course waiver wire veterans are likely to fail. At this point anybody you can pick up is utter crap or they’d be somewhere else already. I’m assuming that anybody we’re going to be able to stick in the 5th slot the rest of the way is probably going to be pretty bad, and we’re relying on two months of good luck more than anything else (of course the same goes for all Sanchez and Zito’s starts).
My argument wasn’t so much that a veteran will be better than a rookie, it’s that you’re not running the risk of doing any long term damage to a veteran — not that you care about (all apologies to Donnie Moore).
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
I'm not really worried about that either.
The names being considered here aren’t top prospects. If they crack mentally, it’s no great loss.
Furthermore, if the Giants really are going onto a run of several contending seasons, they will have no choice but to break in rookies under fire. They have to continue to trust young players, or they’re just going to fall back into old, destructive patterns.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Kevin Correia probably won't clear waivers
not like Sabes would swallow his pride on that one anyway
by NeifiChicken on Jul 31, 2009 8:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Good Analysis...
I’m just wondering how much more the Giants could have given the Indians for Martinez. Barnes, Alderson and ???
Only time will tell if if Alderson is the next Cain, or the next Ainsworth. And if Sanchez is Manny Trillo (the one the Giants signed in ’84).
Martinez would not have caught if he came here, and he’s not worth what it takes to get him for a first baseman. Garko is very comparable to Martinez for a 1b except he has more value because he’s cheaper, younger, and not even close to the cost in prospects.
It’s interesting to compare the career arcsof VMart and Bengie. Through their mid 20’s VMart was clearly the dominant player while Bengie sort of muddled along. But starting at age 27 the comparison begins to tilt toward Molina’s favor.
It’ll be interesting to see where Martinez’ career goes from here. If he’s no longer a catcher, and his bat continues the decline it’s been on the last few years, his career could be heading for a short conclusion.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
Are you trying to say that molina may have found a little somethin in Benito’s locker?
Proud father of Dallas Mcpherson. If you have any information leading to the arrest of the person responsible for the kidnapping of my son please contact me immediately. Reward if found!
Not at all. I don’t think that’
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
how can anyone think that Bengie used PED’s? He’s pure fat.
Proud new dad of Edgardo errr Edgar Renteria!!!
I don’t think it works like that… they aren’t diet pills. Not that I think Bengie was juicing.
Duane Kuiper: Hall Of Fame broadcaster.
by Johnny Disaster on Aug 1, 2009 11:50 AM PDT up reply actions
This analysis seems flawed. It doesn’t seem like you can just expect that we would have gotten the same production out of 2nd and 1st base in the 2nd half if we didn’t make any moves. For one, Burriss is out for the year
We're all basically Pedro Feliz.
Would that decrease his production, or increase it? I get confused with double negatives.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
I just meant GRM’s analysis seems to be trying to determine how much better Sanchez will be than Burriss, Downs, and Frandsen, based on their first half performances, where as the real question should be how much better will Sanchez be than Uribe.
We're all basically Pedro Feliz.
I think the key to that will be Sanchez’ (and Renteria’s) health the rest of the way.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
But that's not his point.
His point, to me at least, is to predict how much better then Giants will be down the stretch than they were in the first 2/3rds of the season. Not how much better they’ll be in the final third than they would have been if they stood pat.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
To add:
By using ZiPS rest-of-season projections …
Garko vs. Ishikawa = +.3 wins
Sanchez vs. Urube = +.5-1 win(s)
Garko vs Ishikawa and Sanchez vs Uribe Are Not The Upgrade I Am Talking About
Look above and note that for the purposes of this analysis i assumed that any PAs lost by ishikawa and Uribe in final 1/3 of the season to Garko and Sanchez are break even inspite of Garko and Sanchez being better. What makes the Giants better in the final 1/3 of the season (as opposed to the first 2/3s of the season) is that the PAs given in the first 2/3s to Aurila/Guzman are now going to Garko and the PAs given in the first 2/3/s to Burriss/Downs/Frandsen are now going to Sanchez. This redistribution of these PAs should add about 2.5 wins as I have shown.
by giantsrainman on Jul 31, 2009 5:35 PM PDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think he missed your point.
Xanthan,
You’ve totally discounted Garko’s ability to keep richie off the field and Sanchez’ ability to not be Frandsen/Downs/Burriss
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
I think I get what GRM is trying to say, he’s looking at the total production and I’m just comparing between starters (Garko vs. Ishi, Sanchez vs. Uribe).
But, if I understand what he’s saying (I rarely do), he’s looking at how the player did in the first half and then saying that he’ll do the same for the 2nd half? He’d do better off by using ZiPS rest-of-season projections instead.
Of course, I could have misread him.
And, he’s assuming that Garko and Sanchez will play 100% at their positions effectively blocking out the scrubs. That’s probably not going to happen. Eventually, the scrubs will get into games for whatever reason.
I think he’s saying Uribe/Ishikawa are better scrubs than Aurilia/assorted 2B garbage. Which seems, reasonable even if 1 whole win better doesn’t sound intuitive.
Randy Winn is in time out until his OBP gets back over .330.
Unless Garcia, Uribe or Renteria goes on the DL, I think we’ve seen the last of Downs/Frandsen/Burriss at 2B (obviously Burriss).
I REALLY hope/think Richie is now gone and I think guzman gets sent down, so I think we’ll only be seeing Garko and Ishi at 1B.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
I'd say...
We are 3-0 since trading for Garko. or +3 wins if you use super complicated caluclations to get you the most accurate statistics.
Proud father of Dallas Mcpherson. If you have any information leading to the arrest of the person responsible for the kidnapping of my son please contact me immediately. Reward if found!
by The Thrill on Jul 31, 2009 6:12 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Well, I can't speak for the rest of the commenters,
but personally I’m about the same.
What’s interesting is the question of how much better the Giants are now.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
What a meanie you are PT!
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
When I do mediocre statistical analysis,
I’m an arithmetic meanie.
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
When people don't understand what I say
I’m a “you just don’t understand me”-nie…. (?) [stretching it, I know[
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
Anderson?
Congrats to my soul mate and birth brother Zach Wheeler on being drafted into greatness. Should I just buy my Wheeler jersey now, or wait till my next birthday?
Nope
Not the porn star either. Or the football coach, the vintner, any of the approximately 30 or so university professors including the one who worked at the same consortium as I attended undergrad at, or my father, grandfather or great-grandfather…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
I’m actually a much better person than I was on July 28th
by FluLikeSymptoms on Jul 31, 2009 9:52 PM PDT up reply actions
Just because I been busy and not around much this week I’ll go on record as saying Sabean did well with the Garko move. I see it has a methodology sound attempt to do the right thing. Even if it does not pan out I am pleased with the reasoning.
I am not likeing the Sanchez move though. Even if Alderson is looking more of a BOR type that is still extremely valuable to a team wants to keep Cain & Tim, a team that is saddled with the Rowand & Zito contracts and a team that still hopes to add pieces through contracts and free agents in each of the next several seasons. Sabean has had an amazing track record of not getting burned when trade wing farm level pitchers but this time Sanchez has to go on tear the likes of which Winn had when he came over from the M’s. That is possible but I am not holding my breath.
That’s it! Katie bar the door for this 79 win team is star crossed! And I am loving it.
I’m kinda flipped on your opinion Dave. Garko is a pretty small upgrade over Ishikawa. Against RHP they are basically the same guy. Sanchez, for all the overpay he was, is at least a semi-legit upgrade. I still hate the price they paid for him.
I get what your saying and am not contesting your numbers. But to me the price paid for Garko was much more reasonable. The ’09 Giants’ can pay that price. I get the distinct impression the both the payroll and roster flexibility Alderson was probably going to provide (Say a solid #4 BOR type) for the 2011 and on squads .
Now TINSNAP can really bite this club in the nads if anything happens to The President (Madison). Alderson provided insurance against that. He was insurance against Zito’s option year automatically vesting. He was insurance for not having to fill both the #4 & #5 spots from trade in the forth coming seasons. As well as being a hedge to either pay more money to keep key players or bring ina missing piece in future years.
That’s it! Katie bar the door for this 79 win team is star crossed! And I am loving it.
Hmm that was not the preview button. Try this again.
I get what your saying and am not contesting your numbers. But to me the price paid for Garko was much more reasonable. The ’09 Giants’ can pay that price. I get the distinct impression the both the payroll and roster flexibility Alderson was probably going to provide (Say a solid #4 BOR type) for the 2011 and on squads is not being properly account for.
Now TINSNAP can really bite this club in the nads if anything happens to The President (Madison). Alderson provided insurance against that. He was insurance against Zito’s option year automatically vesting. He was insurance for not having to fill both the #4 & #5 spots from trade in the forth coming seasons. As well as being a hedge to either pay more money to keep key players or bring ina missing piece in future years.
That’s it! Katie bar the door for this 79 win team is star crossed! And I am loving it.
I agree with parts of both of you
Garko – he and Ishi are pretty similar vs RHP (meaning that Garko’s only value comes vs LHP) in which case I’d have rather saved Barnes and added a platoon guy like Jeff Bailey. However, it is much easier for me to swallow that deal because Barnes is just not the type of prospect Alderson is. While I think the Garko upgrade could have done more cheaply and more intelligence, it wasn’t a terribly unfair price. Garko is close to a league average 1B. Ideally he’s a platoon, but he has value comparable to the type of prospect we gave up. I wanted a smarter move, but it certainly can’t be called “terrible”
Xanthan is right that Sanchez will have the greater impact (assuming health) but the marginal cost of that impact is just way too out of proportion.
by NeifiChicken on Jul 31, 2009 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions
This sums up the “against” well and I can see how one feels this way.
As a member of the “for” crowd, I think the biggest difference is that I put much more value in what players mean right now (2009 & 2010) than I do in the longer-term (2011 and beyond).
I think our future is important and place great value in the players more likely to be impact guys (Anvil, Posey, Madbum, Wheeler, Neal, Rafrod). I’m not so concerned about Alderson and Barnes when we have a legit opportunity to compete right now and next season too.
Maybe my perspective comes as a season ticket holder who’s tired of meaningless games the last few years and absolutely thrilled at the prospects of an exciting September.
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
There is a middle road, which is along the lines of for the moves, but could have played the market a little better. Without rehashing the Sanchez trade, we can Monday morning QB even better and say that if we really were in on DeRosa, we probably could have and should have beaten St. Louis offer and we’d be getting a lot of what we needed all in one package.
I suppose that’s where I am, happy to get help but not certain I think the best decision making went into the shopping.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
My dear Goofus if the hammer is to fall in 2011 than most of the moves have to be dealt with the year before. In this case that is 2010.
For example Cain is only on contract through next year with an option of 2011. If the team feels it can’t afford to keep him they need to move before next August to get anything of value back. If your team is looking at filling 2-3 starter spots this winter from the free agent market for multiple years that is less money to keep players and more holes to spread the money around into. If the team goes and goes a Scutro to play MI for a couple season not only do they lose a pick but that is less money to go around for the 2010-2011 time frame. If the team lands a Bay or Holiday even less still. Tim2.0 and Madison served as an important cost control device in at least one of those areas even if neither one of them reach the MLB in 2010 the still would help the shape the 25 man for 2010.
This was a reckless move were the downside out ways the probable upside. To my eye Sabean’s chance at an extension went from probable to relying on Freddy Sanchez do more than just avoiding crapping the bed , and not just doing ok, but Sanchez being damn good the next two months.
That’s it! Katie bar the door for this 79 win team is star crossed! And I am loving it.
OT, anyone seen today’s line-up? Yuck, if you’re going to call up Bowker fucking play him please.
My Will Clark will kick your honor students ass!
I don’t agree. As hot as Velez is, I’d rather see him in LF against a left handed pitcher, especially the reigning AL Cy Young winner.
I wasn’t thinking about the lefty thing. The lineup just looks ragid to me.
My Will Clark will kick your honor students ass!
I would correct you again
But that would be mean
Chris Dominguez: Bringing dingerz back to The Bay (In a while)
Jonathan Mayo's Updated Top 50 Prospects
1 Jason Heyward ATL OF
2 Madison Bumgarner SF LHP
3 Mike Stanton FLA OF
4 Justin Smoak TEX 1B
5 Buster Posey SF C
6 Neftali Feliz TEX RHP
7 Chris Tillman BAL RHP
8 Brian Matusz BAL LHP
9 Jarrod Parker ARI RHP
10 Tim Beckham TB SS
11 Alcides Escobar MIL SS
12 Jesus Montero NYY C
13 Matt LaPorta CLE 1B
14 Wade Davis TB RHP
15 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B
16 Jake Arrieta BAL RHP
17 Jeremy Hellickson TB RHP
18 Yonder Alonso CIN 1B
19 Brett Wallace OAK 3B
20 Michael Taylor PHI OF
21 Carlos Santana CLE C
22 Desmond Jennings TB OF
23 Austin Jackson NYY OF
24 Dominic Brown PHI OF
25 Logan Morrison FLA 1B
26 Kyle Drabek PHI RHP
27 Jason Castro HOU C
28 Pedro Alvarez PIT 3B
29 Mike Moustakas KC SS/3B
30 Eric Hosmer KC 1B
31 Josh Vitters CHI 3B
32 Lars Anderson BOS 1B
33 Tim Alderson PIT RHP
34 Ben Revere MIN OF
35 Christian Friedrich COL LHP
36 Aaron Hicks MIN OF
37 Casey Kelly BOS RHP/SS
38 Martin Perez TEX LHP
39 Jason Knapp CLE RHP
40 Matt Dominguez FLA 3B
41 Michael Bowden BOS RHP
42 Peter Bourjos LAA OF
43 Pedro Borbon TEX OF
44 Mat Latos SD RHP
45 Jhoulys Chacin COL RHP
46 Jennry Mejia NYM RHP
47 Derek Norris WAS C
48 Jaff Decker SD OF
49 Matt Moore TB LHP
50 Angel Villalona SF 1B
You people wit' the cheese. It never ends.
Hmm
Justin Smoak ahead of Gerald Posey. And Gordon Beckham already in the majors.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
lol one spot ahead
OH GOD I’M GOING TO KILL MYSELF
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
Smoak is struggling at AAA, although he only has around 100 at bats. If their career stats turn out to be even close to each other, I’d much prefer the catcher to the first baseman.
Proud new dad of Edgardo errr Edgar Renteria!!!
Yeah, I’ve seen the Smoak over Posey ranking in a couple of spots, and I don’t get it. Both are (were) raking. One was in high-A, one was in AA. One is already assigned to the far-right end of the defensive spectrum, though.
by Grant Brisbee on Aug 1, 2009 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Grant,
My larger point (and not well-made, I now see) was the “Gordon Beckham in the majors” part.
otoh, despite the differences in defensive skill/requirements, can you not find it in your cold, black (and orange) heart to love a player who actually is expected to hit 30+ homeruns per year?
I continue to be unimpressed with the argument that Posey (assume .300 BA and 15 HR) will be more valuable than Smoak (.280 BA, 30 HR??) just because Buster plays catcher. I understand that the prototypical 1B hits more Dingerz than other positions, so getting 15 HR’s out of a golden-gloved catcher is an advantage. But let’s assume it’s now 2012 and we’ve got our shiny new Posey hitting just as advertised. He’s only one hitter. And where are we going to get this fabled slugging 1B? I’ll be generous and assume that Sabean has been looking for him throughout his tenure in SF. Ain’t found ’im yet.
LIneups are not about net “above-average-per-position” totals. Because the “average” for each position is different. Let’s assume, optimistically, that FSanchez is 150% of an average 2B. Does that balance out an Ishikawa (or whomever) at 1B who is 50% of an average 1B? Of course not; the 2B value is based on a lower number.
Look at it another way: if a baseball game were a contest where there were eight mini-competitions in batting (their C vs. our C; their LF vs. our LF; etc), and if the object of the game were to win at least 5 of those 8 mini-competitions, then I’d say “Yes, Posey is clearly more valuable because he’s such a great hitter for a catcher.” He’d win almost every competition vs. the other team’s catcher. Having one guaranteed win out of 8, every time out, would be a huge advantage. But that’s not how baseball is scored.
Assuming Smoak and Posey turn out as I’ve sketched above, Smoak beats Posey hands down. I’m happy we have Posey in the organization. I think he’ll be a good hitter for a long time (longer if we move him off C). But I’d rather have Beckham (same AVG, more power is my assumption). And more than either, I’d rather have Smoak.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
logic is a tad flawed
Comparing Sanchez contributions in 09 to Frandsen, Downs, and Burris is flawed since none of those guys are likely to get much run at 2B the rest of the year.
You need to compare what he’ll do versus what Uribe will do the rest of the year. Sanchez will definitely provide more than Uribe would, my guess is probably about .5 wins or a little above. Maybe even 1.
As for Garko vs Ishikawa/Aurilia, there’s definitely going to be an upgrade there, probably in a similar range, perhaps a tad under what Sanchez would bring in an upgrade.
Either way, I thnik it’s going to be 2 wins max added (productionwise a little less), but that is definitely significant. Still, I don’t think it will be enough for us to make the playoffs, but that has more to do with the rest of the team than these two
Uribe
His OPS+ is currently about 20 points higher than what he’s averaged over the last four seasons. I’d say assuming he’s going to perform at that level is flawed.
I’m glad Uribe is on the team, but like him better in either the utility role or, if he keeps up his current numbers, replacing Renteria at SS
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
Another flaw in the argument.
We continue to predict the future by what happenned in the past. I guess being time is linear here on earth, and especially in SF, there probably is no better way to predict. But what if Ishi continues to improve and has better numbers the second half, and Garko regresses a bit in the second half. There goes your 0.5 wins or so. What if Uribe has a career year, and Sanchez hobbles on that bruised Knee and regresses. I think by using the past to predict the future, we indeed are about 2 games better from here on out, but we may have payed too much. The fish got Nick Johnson for their 13th rated prospect.
Both Ishi and Uribe have already fallen off significantly in the second half.
Regressions from them are at least, and probably more, likely than regressions from Sanchez and Garko.
VAE PVTO DEVS FIO
Ishi has only had 28 ab since the break and is batting like .284. I don’t see how that is a significant decline. Sure, he hasn’t driven in many runs, but in the few games he played only like 2 Giants reached base, and that makes getting rbi tough.
Do not meddle in the affairs of GM's, for they are subtle and quick to anger.
by cybermaldonado on Aug 1, 2009 1:31 PM PDT up reply actions
Garko 2008 (and what I project his 2009 final stats at now that he is playing in SF).
.273 avg .346 obp . 404 slg
Ishi 2009 (in SF- and this really hurt his stats compared to Garko’s).
.271 avg .325obp .412slg
Ishikawa actually has had a higher slg in a tougher park His obp (and slg probably) would improve with plate time. I’m just not seeing the huge upgrade here other than he is RH and may do better than a LH hitter in SF. I see Garko as a RH bat to plattoon, (Bochy won’t of course).
Do not meddle in the affairs of GM's, for they are subtle and quick to anger.
by cybermaldonado on Aug 1, 2009 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions
Ishikawa’s BABIP is in the .340s. That means his batting average is extremely likely to come down. And those 20 points of OBP that Garko has on him are huge.
Also: Ishikawa is hitting great at AT&T, so that “his home park hurts him” things is nonsense. It’s probably a sample size fluke, but there’s really no evidence whatsoever of that assumption.
Also also, the AL is a tougher league, and you have to take that into account when evaluating them against each other.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
I don’t consider it an assumption at all that hitting at AT&T park is detrimental to most LH power hitters stats. I consider it a fact. Also, whether Ishikawa or not is hitting better at home is in most ways irrelevant . Probably a majority of players hit better at home, but the ballpark still effects the stats. Ishikawa would probably hit better at home if his home park was New Yankee Stadium – and if that were his home park his numbers would certainly be much more impressive (maybe 20+ hr in that LH jack yard)
Do not meddle in the affairs of GM's, for they are subtle and quick to anger.
by cybermaldonado on Aug 1, 2009 2:49 PM PDT up reply actions
I can't wait for you to change your argument again!
First it was “Ishikawa’s hitting well since the break,” which he’s not.
Then it was “Let’s compare Garko’s worst season with Ishikawa this year” even though that still doesn’t make Ishikawa look better. Along with that one, you only took things into account that would make Ishikawa look good, so you ignored his unsustainable performance on balls in play, and you ignored how well he hits at home to say his home park hurts him and you ignored the difference in talent levels between the AL and NL.
Now you’re saying that since Ishikawa is hurt by his home park, he should get to hit there because it’s not relevant whether he hits better there.
Also, there’s that nonsense about the new Yankee Stadium. That’s not remotely relevant.
To summarize my point: Travis Ishikawa is not as good as he has shown, and even if he was, he’s not a better hitter than Garko.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
I never claimed Ishikawa was hitting well since the break. You assumed I did which was the catalyst for this entire conversation. I was responding to a poster that said Ishikawa had “fallen off significantly” in the second half. I don’t see that as having happened or even as being determinable from a few ab. Ishi seems to actually be doing a good job maintaining his level of bleh from the first half.
Funny listening to you talk about me bringing up Garko’s “worst season”. Almost as funny as Sabean and Bochy not being able to mention Garko’s name with also using the word veteran. The guy has only played 2 full Major League seasons. I used Garko’s stats from last year because it was , well, last year and also I don’t think it would be fair to compare using the guys first full season which was the year before last.
And yes, I ignored the fact that Garko was hitting in the A.L. with the DH- meaning he wasn’t getting pitched around like hitters in the N.L. (read Ishikawa) where pitchers know they don’t have to give in with the opposing pitchers spot coming up as a bailout. Or, poor Garko never got taken out in a double switch so he could be pinch hit for by Aurillia in gravy RBI situations. Thanks for making my point. Although, it’s not really my point, it’s just the point that you think I was trying to make.
Do not meddle in the affairs of GM's, for they are subtle and quick to anger.
by cybermaldonado on Aug 1, 2009 3:48 PM PDT up reply actions
Ishi seems to actually be doing a good job maintaining his level of bleh from the first half.
The sample size is nothing, but in that sample size, no he’s not. His OPS is like .600. That’s awful.
Funny listening to you talk about me bringing up Garko’s "worst season". Almost as funny as Sabean and Bochy not being able to mention Garko’s name with also using the word veteran. The guy has only played 2 full Major League seasons. I used Garko’s stats from last year because it was , well, last year and also I don’t think it would be fair to compare using the guys first full season which was the year before last.
So he had a good third of a season, then a good season, then a mediocre season, and now he’s having a good season again. So let’s just say that mediocre season is his real talent level. Makes sense.
And yes, I ignored the fact that Garko was hitting in the A.L. with the DH- meaning he wasn’t getting pitched around like hitters in the N.L. (read Ishikawa) where pitchers know they don’t have to give in with the opposing pitchers spot coming up as a bailout. Or, poor Garko never got taken out in a double switch so he could be pinch hit for by Aurillia in gravy RBI situations. Thanks for making my point. Although, it’s not really my point, it’s just the point that you think I was trying to make.
This is incoherent.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
How Does That Make Sense?
You are choosing to believe on mediocre season instead of 2 good seasons (1/3 in first year, full in second year and 2/3 thus far this year). Seems to me you are the one not making sense. I choose to look at his career numbers and conclude that his true talent level is indead that of a .350 OBP, .450 SLG, .800 OPS guy as his career stats show. This is how he has performed thus far this year and there is no reason to believe he will not continue to perform at this level for the remainder of this year and most likely the three years of arbitration after that he will still be under the Giants control.
by giantsrainman on Aug 1, 2009 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions
...That was sarcasm
Did you read the rest of the conversation? I clearly agree with you on that.
GROUGTHINK ALERT
Never wanna get groug angry...
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
What if Uribe has a career year, and Sanchez hobbles on that bruised Knee and regresses.
A “career year” from Uribe would mean he’s have to exceed 2004, when he had an OPS of .833. I think you’ll have a tough time getting anyone to go along with that since his current OPS is .737.
If Uribe continues his surprisingly good season (big if) stick him at shortstop and you’ve upgraded two positions with one trade.
Sanchez (.776) + Uribe (.737) = 1513
Renteria (.622) + Uribe (.737) = 1370
1513 > 1370
My adopted Giant: "Raptor Jesus" Guzman
This sort of analysis seems quixotic to me, in that you’re trying to arrive at an very precise conclusion using a very blunt instrument (WAR). But if you want to do it right, you need to calculate not the production we got in the first half but what our expected production would have been without the trades. Presumably at-bats that would have gone to Uribe will now go to Sanchez, at-bats that would have gone to Frandsen or Downs or Rohlinger or somebody will now go to Uribe, etc. It doesn’t matter how bad Manny Burriss was in the first half, because he wasn’t going to play from here on out. Same with Aurilia imo.
But you’re still just guessing. I think it’s safe to say we’re probably two or three games better than we would have been, on average. But that’s only if Freddy Sanchez is healthy enough to play up to his usual level, which seems dubious to me, and is my main objection to this trade.
I liked baseball better when it wasn't ...
some retarded math problem.
You’re dealing with a 2 (and hopefully 3) month short sample size. All the WAR values and any other previous stats are completely irrelevant.
LinceCain and pray for rain .... or for someone to take Zito off our hands.
So we throw up our hands and just hope everyone overachieves. I see.
by North Side Chicago Expatriate Giants Fan on Aug 1, 2009 4:19 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Interesting, but...
I see two problems inherent in the post.
1) What’s to stop Aurillia from still getting AB after his rehab when Sabean has activated him and sent Ishikawa to Fresno?
2) It’s very likely that Freddie will miss significant games with his bad back and bad knee and whatever other bads he has.
Do not meddle in the affairs of GM's, for they are subtle and quick to anger.
looking at today's lineup,
the correct answer can only be: time will tell
"Hey old-timer, where am I ?"
"You won't get there from here."
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