How would you rank the Giants prospects now?
by Hobbes2d on Jul 26, 2009 10:45 PM PDT
95 comments
The Giants have had some impressive seasons by a number of pitchers this year, both starters and relievers at various levels. I included Joseph and Wheeler since both are expected to sign as far as I can tell. I was tempted to put a few of the first year draft pick pitchers like Stoffel and Toole in here because it wouldn't surprise me if Stoffel especially ends up in the top 30 come next February. I didn't put Joey Martinez since he made the big league team out of camp and if not for an unfortunate injury probably wouldn't be eligible anymore, plus he's older for a prospect to begin with. Sosa drops due to injury despite a good record and ERA at AA, but his periperals mainly K/9 is down, though his injury status is probably a good cause for that. Durability has to be a concern with him now as that's 2 years in a row he has missed time, this time it's his arm.
Feel free to post your own and comment on mine. Prospect talk is always fun and makes for a good debate.
1. Buster Posey
3. Tim Alderson
4. Thomas Neal
5. Zack Wheeler
8. Chris Dominguez
9. Scott Barnes
10. Brandon Crawford
11. Rafeal Rodriguez
12. Jesus Guzman
13. Kevin Pucetas
14. Nick Noonan
15. Conor Gillaspie
16. Clayton Tanner
17. Eric Surkamp
18. Tommy Joseph
19. Ari Ronick
20. Ehire Adrianza
22. Henry Sosa
23. Aaron King
24. Jesse English
25. Craig Clark
26. Joe Paterson
27. Mike McBryde
28. Brock Bond
29. Kyle Nicholson
30. Wendell Fairley
This FanPost is reader-generated, and it does not necessarily reflect the views of McCovey Chronicles. If the author uses filler to achieve the minimum word requirement, a moderator may edit the FanPost for his or her own amusement.
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I see what you did there
Original member of the Van Buren Boys
by NuschlerFace on Jul 27, 2009 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mine’s pretty similar, though I’d probably have Joseph higher and Kieschnick a bit lower.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 26, 2009 11:48 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I love Kieschnick, though I’d probably bump him to outside the top 10. Like 11 or 12.
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 26, 2009 11:59 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who else would go above Kieschnick? He’s tied for 4th in HR in the Cal League and doesn’t play half his games in a hitter happy place like Lancaster like Gaston (the Cal League leader) does. I can probably switch Barnes and him I guess, and probably should have but other than that idk who else would rank ahead as of now. Raf Rod has more upside of course, but he’s also very raw and young. Crawford’s bat is a question mark. Pucetas and Guzman are more advanced but not as good prospect wise IMO.
by Hobbes2d on Jul 27, 2009 12:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, certainly Barnes and maybe RafRod. I’m just still a bit concerned with Kieschnick’s plate discipline (and I have been one of the biggest Kieshnick fans on here since he was drafted.)
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 27, 2009 8:09 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Honestly he can K 150 times if he wants, if he walks 60-80 times and hits 30 HR’s then I’ll be one happy camper. :D
by Hobbes2d on Jul 27, 2009 11:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, he’s unfortunately only on pace for about 37 walks given 600 PA, so he’s got a ways to go.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 27, 2009 12:38 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s also his first minor league season, for him to make the ML’s he’s going to have to improve anyway.
by Hobbes2d on Jul 27, 2009 1:23 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also I think Steve Edlefsen needs to be in the top 30. He’s really impressive this year. Using his good curveball well and is fitting into the closer’s role in SJ and Fresno.
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 27, 2009 12:01 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I’d also put Jason Stoffel in there somewhere and take Nicholson and English off.
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 27, 2009 12:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I initially had him and Runzler in the bottom 20s but took them out because it would have led to having Sosa and English unranked which would be wrong IMO, since both have done ok at AA and profile as starters for now….And I put Paterson in because he’s younger than the two. Stoffel I had ranked initially too. Nicholson is a little older for Augusta, but I have a feeling he can be like Pucetas eventually in that he just performs well and probably can handle an aggressive promotion next year.
by Hobbes2d on Jul 27, 2009 12:04 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh yeah Runzler needs consideration as a top 30 prospect. I like Paterson and would leave him where he is.
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 27, 2009 12:12 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just goes to show how many good arms the Giants have when you have difficulties ranking all of them and have to leave out some promising bullpen arms.
by Hobbes2d on Jul 27, 2009 12:13 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I came here to knock English on his inability to go deep into games, and then I look up his stats and I see he threw a CG SHO July 9 and went at least six innings in three of his last five starts. Shows what I know.
I guess I had higher hopes for English after his season in San Jose. He’s really not doing poorly, but there was a time when I was concerned about his durability. I’ll leave English on the list, then.
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 27, 2009 12:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think English has had a somewhat dissapointing season but looking up his numbers he’s done alright. I think he deserves to be on the list because he’s actually younger than Clark & only a year older than Nicholson & also is he worth being on as a relief prospect?
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Jul 27, 2009 12:23 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He can go into the bullpen at any time, sure. Given the starters coming through the system in Alderson, Bumgarner, Barnes, et al, his future is almost certainly as RP.
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 27, 2009 12:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
IAWTC
emperor nobody: "can ben copeland play third will the mcgwire throwback jersey be sponsored by balco labs i think i am having non-nerve-damage related chest pains well there’s holliday’s homer for may"
Clayton Tanner. I have nothing witty to add.
by walkoff baltimore chop on Jul 27, 2009 1:47 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
1. Buster Posey
2. Madison Bumgarner
3. Tim Alderson
4. Angel Villalona
5. Zack Wheeler
6. Thomas Neal
7. Scott Barnes
8. Roger Kieschnick
9. Chris Dominguez
10. Rafael Rodriguez
11. Brandon Crawford
12. Nick Noonan
13. Conor Gillaspie
14. Henry Sosa
15. Tommy Joseph
16. Aaron King
17. Jorge Bucardo
18. Kevin Pucetas
19. Joe Martinez
20. Clayton Tanner
21. Eric Surkamp
22. Ari Ronick
23. Ehire Adrianza
24. Jesse English
25. Craig Clark
26. Jesus Guzman
27. Brock Bond
28. Mike McBryde
29. Francisco Peguero
30. Wendell Fairley
Random Thoughts:
- These lists are always tricky to do as players are quite often interchangable & subject to change so i’m sure in a week i’d post a different list
- I like Stoffel but haven’t included him or any other relief pitchers in the list as i can never quite justify them given the risk/reward unless they’re proven at higher levels.
- Posey & Bumgarner are pretty interchangable for me at this point.
- Dominguez & Joseph are quite hard to position at this point & could quite easily go a few places higher or lower.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Jul 27, 2009 12:11 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
I think Dominguez is a top 10 guy. He has 80 arm and 80 power IIRC and he’s already been hitting since he signed. He’ll K quite a bit, but he should also draw some walks and show big time power. The real question for me is what position he’ll end up at. From what I can tell he can play at 3rd, but he’s also played some 1b already at SK, and I think he can play in the OF if they wanted him to.
by Hobbes2d on Jul 27, 2009 12:15 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On draft day I read some stuff about a move to corner OF in the future as a strong possibility for him. RF being a likely destination. I’ll take it as long as he hits dingerz.
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 27, 2009 12:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Depth Chart wise I hope he stays at 3b, and then we can move Pablo to first, since it would be pretty stupid to hitch all your wagons to Villalona. Having Neal in LF, Rowand in CF, and Kieschnick in RF would be pretty nice, with Dominguez at 3B, Posey at C and Pablo at 1B. That’d be a significant amount of power, almost too good to be true….
by Hobbes2d on Jul 27, 2009 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m still clinging to my pie in the sky Albert Pujols-lite hopes for Dominguez. I don’t care where Pablo plays, as long as he’s in. Having the ability to move him around is super cool.
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 27, 2009 12:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well i don’t know that he’ll be like Albert, but maybe like Prince Fielder. Which obviously we would all take. Or for a more crude comp, Richie Sexson. Lots of K’s, some walks and 30-40 HR power. Or Ryan Howard if you want to go there. Similar comps all the same. Except Dominguez can probably bring added value that he can play somewhere other than 1st.
by Hobbes2d on Jul 27, 2009 12:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Trade Domingez for Cane!
Rafael Rodriguez: #8 on our list and batting .326 in Scottsdale...which I believe has be renamed Rafaelsdale.
by BrianBokake on Jul 27, 2009 12:41 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll offer you some pie. It was made in the sky.
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 27, 2009 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
maybe very very very lite. A 20 year old Pujols struck out 37 times in 400 ABs in the Midwest League. Dominguez has already K’d 24 times 88 ABs spent between the rookie league and short season ball. Pujols also walked more times than he K’d in A ball, a trend he’s continued in every major league season except his rookie year. Dominguez BB/K ratio? Not looking quite as promising.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Jul 27, 2009 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dominguez = 1B
Why move Pablito off 3B when he’s been a huge asset there and is already playing above-average D there? D has always been a problem for Dominguez at 3B and it has followed him to AZL and S-K – he profiles as a better 1B than Pablo due to his large height advantage. Besides, our back-up plan at 3B should be Biery.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
by Fla-Giant on Jul 27, 2009 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who’s to say Pablo will still be playing above-average D there in 2-3 years when Dominguez is hopefully ready? And his D is a lot more like average-ish than above-average anyway.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 27, 2009 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pablo's D
I disagree. Pablo started out the year with average D, but with repitition he’s gotten more comfortable there. He’s continued to improve all season to where he’s now obviously above-average.
As for your question, who’s to say Chris D will even make it to the big leagues in 2-3 years? I think that the odds of Pablo remaining a top 5 player at 3B are much higher than Chris D ever even playing 3B for the SF Giants. 22 year old players rarely markedly improve their D at positions they’ve already been playing at for 3 years already.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
by Fla-Giant on Jul 27, 2009 10:07 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, if he doesn’t make it in 2-3 years, it’s a moot point anyway.
Matt Cain: He'll save children, but not the Dodger children.
PABLO SANDOVAL AM STEAL DEATH, DESTROYER OF WORLDS.
by jponry on Jul 27, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I disagree. Pablo started out the year with average D, but with repitition he’s gotten more comfortable there. He’s continued to improve all season to where he’s now obviously above-average.
Or he’s an average defender. In 661 innings at 3B he’s at +1.1 runs. Basically average. I’d like to see him rack up another 1,000 innings as an average defender before I call him that, but I really don’t have a problem saying he’s an average defensive third baseman, ATM.
I think of ‘above-average’ as a +5 run defender, which Pablo really isn’t. But he’s played 3B a lot better than I imagined he would this year. We should be thrilled he’s average.
by xanthan on Jul 27, 2009 10:16 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
ATM....?
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
GET THAT VORP SH!T OUTTA HERE!!!
by baetown415 on Jul 27, 2009 6:13 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
He plays third base like an ATM machine!
by xanthan on Jul 28, 2009 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
spits out cash
Like Mando.
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 28, 2009 5:36 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're Just Showing Your Body Bias There
Judgment Day is coming
comics | art | Nattowear
by Natto on Jul 27, 2009 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
When a guy has his arm rated as an 80, you do all you can NOT to make him play first base.
by Hobbes2d on Jul 27, 2009 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
are we talking about Dominguez here or Pablo?
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Jul 27, 2009 1:44 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am also drinking the Dominguez cool-aid. Sign me up.
Rafael Rodriguez: #8 on our list and batting .326 in Scottsdale...which I believe has be renamed Rafaelsdale.
by BrianBokake on Jul 27, 2009 12:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, i put him in the top 10 eventually and was pleased with us selecting him. I’m trying to get too caught up with his performances so far & it’ll be interesting where he ends up position wise. I’m curious out his potential at RF as well if he can’t stick at 3B although if he can hit well enough i won’t mind where he ends up.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Jul 27, 2009 12:35 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Architect must be higher!
Rafael Rodriguez: #8 on our list and batting .326 in Scottsdale...which I believe has be renamed Rafaelsdale.
by BrianBokake on Jul 27, 2009 12:17 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
And why is Wheeler so high? Seems kinda crazy to me to put him above Villalona, Kieschnick, Crawford and Rafael.
Rafael Rodriguez: #8 on our list and batting .326 in Scottsdale...which I believe has be renamed Rafaelsdale.
by BrianBokake on Jul 27, 2009 12:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wheeler was a consensus top 7 pick in this draft. Why would he rank lower? In most other farm systems he would be a top 2 or 3 prospect for an organization.
by Hobbes2d on Jul 27, 2009 12:26 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m not saying he can’t be higher but he hasn’t thrown a professional pitch yet. Angel has played well enough to be over him for sure in my eyes and the others have at least produced at some level.
Rafael Rodriguez: #8 on our list and batting .326 in Scottsdale...which I believe has be renamed Rafaelsdale.
by BrianBokake on Jul 27, 2009 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Top 10 draft talents annually rank very high even if they haven’t thrown a pitch in pro bowl after signing. Last year for instance:
Brian Matusz ranked 3rd in Baltimore’s top 30 behind Wieters and Tillman.
Daniel Schlereth (a late 1st rounder for AZ) was ranked 3rd for Arizona behind Jarrod Parker and Gerardo Parra, after only 12 IP of pro ball last year.
Andrew Cashner threw 20 innings last year, was the Cubs 1st round pick and ranked 3rd behind Vitters and Samardzija.
Gordon Beckham was the White Sox top prospect despite 14 games. Dayan Viciedo was ranked 2nd, ahead of Aaron Poreda and Tyler Flowers.
Christian Friedrich ranked 3rd behind Dexter Fowler and Jhouyls Chacin for the Rockies, he was their 1st round pick last year. He threw 48 innings.
Tim Melville who was a 4th round HS pick last year was the Royals 5th ranked prospect. 4th was their 1st round pick Mike Montgomery who also was from HS.
Ethan Martin was 3rd ranked for the Dodgers and didn’t throw a single pitch for them last year. He was drafted 14th or 15th, and Wheeler was compared to being of similar talent to Martin.
Wheeler is right around where he should be. Wouldn’t surprise me if he was ranked 3rd or 4th by BA next year ahead of Alderson and or Neal. And most definitely ahead of Villalona.
by Hobbes2d on Jul 27, 2009 12:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
How many were right out of high school in a top heavy farm system though?
Rafael Rodriguez: #8 on our list and batting .326 in Scottsdale...which I believe has be renamed Rafaelsdale.
by BrianBokake on Jul 27, 2009 12:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ethan Martin. Melville. Some of these other guys were out of college. But I marked Wheeler around where he should be and will be ranked. He’s a very highly touted HS pitcher. The other guys like Matzek, Turner, Miller should be ranked around the same place if not higher based on their respective teams systems.
by Hobbes2d on Jul 27, 2009 12:42 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would say that I agree entirely with your placement of Wheeler, except that I won’t put him in my list at all (when I get it up) because, as with Joseph, he’s not yet Giant property and I always draw that particular line. If he hasn’t signed he’s not yet one of our prospects. But I imagine come Aug. 17th, he’ll be the 4th or 5th best prospect in the system.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Jul 27, 2009 5:46 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
My thoughts exactly.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
by Lyle on Jul 27, 2009 6:38 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1, -1
I agree wholeheartedly about not ranking guys that haven’t even signed with us yet. Although, I can’t believe that Wheeler wouldn’t sign. He has no leverage at all. If we don’t sign him we get the #7 pick next year in what most think will be a better pool than this year. He’ll get at least a $2.2M bonus, probably closer to $2.5M, but if he doesn’t sign he won’t be eligible to go back into the draft until 2012 (unless he transfers to a JC), when the odds of him going higher than #6 is very, very low.
I do disagree that he should be an Immediate #5 in our system as soon as he signs. Just because BA and others have a history of ranking picks with no pro ball history high doesn’t mean that we have to follow suit like sheep. Until he actually throws some pitches in a real game in the minors, I’d rank Wheeler somewhere around #8.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
by Fla-Giant on Jul 27, 2009 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s not particularly sheep like, it’s just an understanding of what prospecting means. Results in rookie ball are pretty meaningless, and results in any level of minor leagues have to be filtered through a few interpretative standards to guess their meaning (age relative to league, league facotors peripheral stats etc). One of the primary factors for judging any prospect, if not the primary factor, however, is the opinion of professional scouts, and it’s hard to imagine any scout anywhere giving an opinion that we have 7 prospects with better potential for being an impact major leaguer. It’s likely that many scouts who were familiar enough with all the players to make such a call might put Wheeler as high as 3 in our system on the day he signs.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Jul 27, 2009 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Do you consider publications like BA equivalent to scouts? I consider them businesses, and like any business they’re in it to make money. They make money by attracting eyeballs, and they get eyeballs by being cutting-edge and fresh. They know that most fans want to hear and see that the new 1st round pick that just signed a multi-million $ bonus is great and is certain to be a star. They’re the new big thing. That’s the sheep mentality that I was referring to – and it exists in all sports.
Now if you have access to a list put together by numerous scouts, or scouting agencies that actually get paid to scout players, then I’d put more stock in that info. If somebody could do something like that, I’m pretty sure you’d find very few of the scouts would rate most HS players, that have never pitched to, or batted against, any professional or advanced collegiate players, immediately in the top 5 of their teams prospects list.
Of course, there are exceptions to the rule (some teams have weak farm systems and some players are obviously phenoms), but in the Giants’ case I don’t think that they apply now (ie. we have a strong and top-heavy system). Unlike almost any other sport, scouting in baseball has a bad success rate. It’s amazing how many top 10 picks in a given year’s draft never make it out of the minors, or never have more than a journeyman career. That goes triple for HS pitchers picked in the top 10.
Let’s see how Wheeler does throwing at least 10 games against pro hitters before we vault him into our top 5. Until then, I just don’t see how you can rank him ahead of Buster, MadBum, Neal, Alderson, Villalona, Barnes, RafRod, or Sosa.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
by Fla-Giant on Jul 27, 2009 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
BA’s MO is to reflect as much as possible a consensus view of scouts and they definitely spend a lot of time talking with scouts before putting together lists. In other words, their opinion, though hardly gospel, is a far better view of scouting world opinions than any of ours.
And sure baseball scouting has, like all sports, a disproportionate amount of misses to hits, so what? If you’re trying to predict prospects you live with missing alot. Otherwise we should only make these lists backwards — which would be very easy to do. Want to see how well I can rank the best prospects from 1995?
Wheeler was the 6th overall pick. He’s going to be ranked highly, the same way our other top 10 picks were — Posey was #2 in our system after 37 ABs (mostly against teenagers in a complex league). Lincecum was #1 after appearing in 8 games. Alderson and Bumgarner were #2 and #3 after pitching 5 and 0 innings respectively. Cain was #11 after 5 innings, but that was a pretty strong Giants prospect class and he was drafted much further down in the first round. Why should Wheeler be different?
And really, your inclusion of Rafrod as somebody who you can’t see ranking behind Wheeler somewhat lessens the force of your argument IMO. A kid who’s not only had scouts at pretty much all his high school starts for a couple of years but also appeared regularly in summer all star leagues and events (like all the high profile HS have) has to prove himself to be ranked ahead of 17 year old mystery with 61 ABs in a glorified scrimmage league who’d never been seen in a competitive game before? Seems like a stretch.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Jul 27, 2009 7:25 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good points
I would add:
1. The Cain, Lincecum, Alderson, and MadBum examples aren’t a good comparison. As I wrote above, back then our cupboard was incredibly bare.
2. The Lincecum and Posey examples aren’t a good comparison either. I notably specified the inexperience of HS players when I pointed out Wheeler. Both Buster and Timmeh had 3 years of experience at top-flight universities and conferences. Posey was especially tested in college due to the fact that FSU made it to the regionals and Super-regionals all of his 3 years, and they made it to the CWS is last year there. I guarantee that at least 95% of the batters Wheeler faced in HS will never even make it to minor league ball.
3. I threw RafRod in there to see your reaction. You were claiming that Wheeler should be ranked high because of his high draft pick. Well, RafRod was effectively the #1 draft pick of all the Latin American FAs in his year. He set a record for the highest bonus at that time (which will likely end up being higher than Wheeler’s bonus) , and he’s got more pro experience than Wheeler. So, using your logic, he has to be ranked higher than Wheeler.
"There ain’t much to being a ballplayer, if you’re a ballplayer." - Honus Wagner
by Fla-Giant on Jul 27, 2009 8:02 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
It doesn’t really matter that he was out of high school though, he was drafted ahead of a lot of college players because he’s a better prospect & should be rated ahead of a lot of older prospects because again he’s a better prospect.
We’re top heavy in terms of our top 4 which is why he’s being talked about as 5th/6th best prospect when ordinarily he’d be a 2nd/3rd best prospect. We aren’t top heavy after that though and whilst the likes of Kieschnick & Crawford are good prospects who i personally like, they don’t have the overall pedigree that Wheeler has (which is why they were drafted in the 3rd/4th round as opposed to 6th overall)
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Jul 27, 2009 12:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That said, having a big 4 or 5 or so is a pretty nice thing. There aren’t many systems that could say as much, much less having quality beyond that. The Marlins come to mind, the Rangers (depending on some guys status this year), maybe the Braves, but not much after that.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Jul 27, 2009 9:10 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Of course it is, we’re very lucky to have a big 4 or 5 & i think we’ve got some interesting prospects after that as well. It was more a case of us not being so top heavy that Wheeler wouldn’t easily qualify as a tope 5 or 6 prospect in our system.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Jul 27, 2009 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
As he would have been in ours in previous years. He’s a better prospect than Alderson was when he was drafted & he went straight into the number 2 spot. I don’t see how you could possibly justify keeping him out of the top 5 (or 6 if you love Neal)
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Jul 27, 2009 12:30 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Because he was a top 10 draft pick (and was deserving of that selection) and so he has great pedigree & talent. I can understand Villalona being ahead of him but he should definately be ahead of the other three.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Jul 27, 2009 12:27 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m a little iffy on putting Wheeler so high myself.
Supporting San Francisco Dugout since 2005 and Manny Burriss since 2006, and bringing you all your California League needs since 2009.
by BaronVonCurrentEvents on Jul 27, 2009 12:28 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
1. EME
2. Bocock
3. Culberson
4. Everyone else
by xanthan on Jul 27, 2009 3:50 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Name Bias!!!
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
by tedfordfan on Jul 27, 2009 6:19 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about Antoan?! Or Clay Timpner?!
by Hobbes2d on Jul 27, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jackson Williams demands satisfaction!
Rafael Rodriguez: #8 on our list and batting .326 in Scottsdale...which I believe has be renamed Rafaelsdale.
by BrianBokake on Jul 27, 2009 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wendell Fairley doesn’t need your lists man, your judgements, he is above it, ABOVE IT ALL
Congrats to my soul mate and birth brother Zach Wheeler on being drafted into greatness. Should I just buy my Wheeler jersey now, or wait till my next birthday?
by TexasRanger on Jul 28, 2009 8:25 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
1. Buster Posey
2. Madison Bumgarner
3. Zack Wheeler
4. Tim Alderson
5. Angel Villalona
6. Thomas Neal
7. Rafael Rodriguez
8. Eihre Adrianza
9. Scott Barnes
10. Nick Noonan
11. Connor Gilaspie
12. Roger Kieschnick
13. Thomas Joseph
14. Kevin Pucetas
15. Clayton Tanner
16. Brandon Crawford
17. Henry Sosa
18. Chris Dominguez
19. Waldis Juaquin
20. Alex Hinshaw
21. Francisco Peguero
22. Jose Casilla
23. Wilmin Rodriguez
24. Dan Runzler
25. Kyle Nicholson
26. Erik Surkamp
27. Julio Izturas
28. Jesse English
29. Wendell Fairley
30. Hector Sanchez
Five to watch:
• Leonardo Fuentes
• Marvin Barrios
• Jason Stoffel
• Orlando Yntama
• Edward Concepcion
Thoughts:
- Yes Wheeler at #3 is very agressive. And, no, this isn’t motivated by somehow thinking that Alderson has been disappointing or by judging an 18 year old by his present day plate discipline against pitchers 4-5 years older than him. I’m just that high on Wheeler.
- Neal, Rodriguez, Adrianza and Barnes have all elevated their status greatly this year.
- Noonan and Gillaspie have dropped, but both have time to figure things out. I think Noonan is already showing some signs of doing so. I’m less confident that Gillaspie will significantly improve his defense or find some missing power. He’s ranked this high because of position (I think he can make a more than adequate 2B, where his bat will play even if it doesn’t improve).
- I’m really scared by Sosa’s injury and by the corresponding (?) drop in his K rate (5.5/9 IP).
- I bet heavily on age and upside in the 20 to 30 range.
- The “5 to Watch” are guys who I think could shoot up the rankings in the next 12 months.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
by tedfordfan on Jul 27, 2009 6:38 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
This is pretty much my list (though I don’t know enough about the arms in the second half to rank them). My only real objection is with Crawford and Gillaspie, whom I would switch.
The Giants’ last three high draft picks have been Lincecum, Bumgarner, and Posey, so an aggressive placement for Wheeler seems entirely justified.
by Evan on Jul 27, 2009 7:49 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh yeah, and Jorge Bucardo needs to be well up on the list, as Roger is sure to remind us.
by Evan on Jul 27, 2009 7:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Evan. I surely am going to remind people of that. Jose Casilla, too.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Jul 27, 2009 8:59 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
#22
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
by tedfordfan on Jul 27, 2009 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well i was quite agressive with Jorge Bucardo on my list but i left Casilla off. I was quite intrigued by Casilla and had him as somewhat of a sleeper, but i’ve lost interest in him since he’s moved into relief.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Jul 27, 2009 9:52 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
All he does is throw Ks and groundballs. He could well have the makings of a shutdown closer, and that’s a definite value, much more than guys who project as middle relievers and IMO possibly more than some of the 5th starter types we have in the system (Pucetas, Tanner, etc).
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Jul 27, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough, he’s still an interesting prospect, i’m just generally not a fan of relief pitchers as prospects as they still have a good risk to them and don’t have much upside. Pucetas for example doesn’t have all that less upside than Casilla and yet is less risky.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Jul 27, 2009 10:31 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Crawford and Gillaspie
They’re close, but I think Gillaspie hits enough and can stay at 2B, whereas I think it’s in (more) doubt as to whether or not Crawford ever hits enough to make it anywhere in the show. To be fair, I’ve been more down on Crawford (and Kieschnick) than almost all of the posters here, so to have them both in my top-16 shows how well they’ve done this year.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
by tedfordfan on Jul 27, 2009 9:40 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seems a pretty decent list & don’t really have a problem with your aggressive ranking of Wheeler. The only player i’d disagree about is Adrianza as i’m not sure why he’s elevated his status or why he deserves to be ranked this high. He’s obviously got a good defensive reputation but i haven’t seen anything or heard enough to suggest he’s going to be able to hit enough to be ranked that highly.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Jul 27, 2009 7:56 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
On Adrianza
He’s 19 in full season ball, putting up a .270/.340/.344 line. Should develop more power as he fills out his 6’1" frame (currently 155 lbs.), has an average walk rate, an acceptable K rate, and is young for his league. Oh, and he doesn’t have a good defensive reputation. He has an incredible defensive reputation. Some of the scout quotes are absurd.
Still the loving, adoptive father of Hector Sanchez. And who doesn't love switch-hitting catchers with power and patience?
by tedfordfan on Jul 27, 2009 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
That’s still not a very impressive line though, not that i’m discounting him based on it, as the circumstances you mention are true, but not one that’s really elevated his status in my eyes.
Yeah, i understand he’s got a fantastic defensive reputation, and that’d make him quite valuable on a major league team, but ultimately the biggest roadblock for most prospects is whether they can hit well enough to make it in the majors in the first place. I’m just skeptical of prospects that are over-rated based on fantastic defensive reputations but questionable hitting ability, because as good a defensive repuation you have, you still need to be able to hit (to at least some degree) in order to make it (see Bocock & Jackson Williams).
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Jul 27, 2009 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
But look at your two examples closely. Williams at 22 in the same league put up a .179/.275/.263 line (and in about 50 games, not an insignificant number). Bocock at 22 had a very hot month and got promoted to the Cal League, but even in that hot month his .354 OBP and .379 SLG were not much better than what Adrianza has done this year, and upon elevating to the Cal league he proceeded to go .220/.293/.378 for the rest of the year.
And again, both these guys were 3 years older in that same league. Adrianza’s line in much more impressive than either of the two college guys. I’d certainly like to see improvement out of him next year in San Jose, but the comparison to Wiliams and Bocock isn’t really legitimate to me.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Jul 27, 2009 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
You’re right, i wasn’t really comparing him to them in terms of their ability as Adrianza has done alright and i have much higher hopes for him than those two. They were more comparisons of players who were over-rated (and they have been rated highly at times) due to their defence. I’m not saying i’m not intrigued by Adrianza or that his performance has been poor, i’d just need to see more offense or offensive projection out of him before i have much belief in him or call him a top 15 prospect.
Proud parent of Waldis Joaquin!
by GiantFan on Jul 27, 2009 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll play along
…although I wouldn’t really rank Wheeler or Joseph until the actually sign.
1. Buster Posey
2. Madison Bumgarner
3. Thomas Neal
4. Zach Wheeler
5. Tim Alderson
6. Chris Dominguez
7. Angel Villalona
8. Roger Kieschnick
9. Craig Clark
10. Scott Barnes
11. Thomas Joseph
12. Brandon Crawford
13. Kyle Nicholson
14. Eric Surkamp
15. Francisco Peguero
16. Dan Runzler
17. Nick Noonan
18. Jason Stoffel
19. Jorge Bucardo
20. Conor Gillaspie
21. Rafael Rodriguez
22. Brett Pill
23. Drew Biery
24. Joe Paterson
25. Wendell Fairley (I can’t believe I have him this high)
26. Brock Bond
27. Clayton Tanner
28. Henry Sosa
29. Sundrendy Windster
30. Hector Sanchez
I’m pretty happy with my Top 15. I tend to value current production a bit more than most of you. Thus the Bond, Pill, and Biery selections. So my lists tend to be volatile. I put Stoffel and RaRod in just on general principles, since they haven’t done much that I can get an impression from.
Watch List:
1. Wilmin Rodriguez
2. Cameron Lamb
3. Orlando Yntema
4. Edwin Concepcion
5. Julio Izturis
6. Chris Gloor
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
by Lyle on Jul 27, 2009 7:49 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Good top 10, but Craig Clark at 9? As a 25 year old in High A? Seems like a mid-late 20s guy to me, if that.
by KCE on Jul 27, 2009 8:01 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, well, as I said, I tend to put more weight on results than most folks here – and therefore I have a lot of volatility in my lists. He may not make my Top 30 this time next year. I certainly understand your concerns about him.
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
by Lyle on Jul 27, 2009 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
What, no Wilber Bucardo??
He’ll prove you guys wrong, all of you…
Wilber Bucardo: Carlos Silva with a younger brother.
by gianator on Jul 27, 2009 9:46 AM PDT reply actions 0 recs
Sergio Romo: striking out professional hitters since 2005. And winner of the 2012 NL Fireman of the Year Award!
by Lyle on Jul 27, 2009 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
1. Posey
2. Bumgarner
3. Neal
4. Alderson
5. Wheeler (when signed)
6. Villalona
7. Kieschnick
8. Crawford
9. Dominguez
10. Adrianza
11. Gillaspie
12. J. Bucardo
13. Noonan
14. Sosa (worried about injury)
15. Joseph (when signed)
16. Rafrod
17. Guzman
18. Casilla
19. Fairley
20. Runzler
21. Surkamp
22. A. King
23. Peguero
24. Izturis
25. Pucetas
26. Pill (for Fly!)
27. Tanner
28. W. Bucardo
29. McBryde
30. E. Concepcion
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Jul 27, 2009 7:41 PM PDT reply actions 0 recs
What about that Biery kid?
He hit 3 homers two days ago, and he is hitting over 400 batting behind Dominguez.
by bradleybear on Jul 27, 2009 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was writing the list when I saw the deal. But now that I think of it, I meant to sneak Juan Martinez in there somewhere. Ah welll, I got bored and lazy somewhere around #20. And actually after seeing McBryde tonight, I remembered why I don’t like him at all — I swear he gets jammed on every single swing he ever takes. Even his hits! His got like the Bengie Molina of bat speed.
My Bucardo is better than yours.
A hot August weekday, before a small crowd, when the only thing at stake is the tissue-thin difference between a thing done well and a thing done ill. Insofar as the clutch hitter is not a sportswriter's myth, it is a vulgarity, like a writer who writes only for money.
by Roger on Jul 28, 2009 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions 0 recs
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